Eruptive Cycle Research Articles

The evolving volcano-ice interactions of Crater Glacier, Mount St. Helens, Washington (USA)

Interactions between volcanoes and glaciers provide insight to the evolution of a volcanic edifice and may be an indicator for renewed volcanic activity. At Mount St. Helens, Crater Glacier, which has formed in the volcanic crater after the eruption in 1980, is one of the world’s last expanding glaciers and provides a unique opportunity to characterize the evolution of a glacier expanding onto an area of significant thermal flux. We combine photographic documentation and glaciovolcanic cave surveys with remote sensing data from Google Earth, UAS, and LiDAR to analyze the present state of Crater Glacier and reconstruct its development since the emplacement of the 2004–2008 lava dome. Our results show that snow accumulation has caused Crater Glacier to grow from 2009 to 2019 by approximately 13.8 × 106 m3, during which time the glacier toe advanced by several hundred meters. The glacier-dome interface shift toward higher elevations against the 2004–2008 lava dome and subsequent encroachment onto thermally active areas led to glacier modification via extensive subglacial cave system formation. Analysis of subglacial tephra layers revealed the existence of juvenile material from the 2004–2008 eruption cycle, providing insights about glacier subsidence of ~ 40 m since 2004/2005 in spite of net growth. Although the lava dome is cooling, the glacier-dome interface seems to have become increasingly stable in the past few years. Our results suggest that glacier development in the accumulation area adjacent to the dome is now being affected by the thermal characteristics of the lava dome itself, making monitoring internal glacier development via tracking glaciovolcanic cave expansion a potentially important volcano monitoring tool.

Multi-station automatic classification of seismic signatures from the Lascar volcano database

Abstract. This study was aimed to build a multi-station automatic classification system for volcanic seismic signatures such as hybrid, long period, tremor, tectonic, and volcano–tectonic events. This system was based on a probabilistic model made using transfer learning, which has, as the main tool, a pre-trained convolutional network named AlexNet. We designed five experiments using different datasets with data that were real, synthetic, two different combinations of these (combined 1 and combined 2), and a balanced subset without synthetic data. The experiment presented the highest scores when a process of data augmentation was introduced into processing sequence. Thus, the lack of real data in some classes (imbalance) dramatically affected the quality of the results, because the learning step (training) was overfitted to the more numerous classes. To test the model stability with variable inputs, we implemented a k-fold cross-validation procedure. Under this approach, the results reached high predictive performance, considering that only the percentage of recognition of the tectonic events (TC) class was partially affected. The results obtained showed the performance of the probabilistic model, reaching high scores over different test datasets. The most valuable benefit of using this technique was that the use of volcano seismic signals from multiple stations provided a more generalizable model which, in the near future, can be extended to multi-volcano database systems. The impact of this work is significant in the evaluation of hazard and risk by monitoring the dynamic evolution of volcanic centers, which is crucial for understanding the stages in a volcano’s eruptive cycle.

Time‐Lapse Geophysical Investigation of Geyser Dynamics at Spouter Geyser, Yellowstone National Park: Geyser Dynamics II

AbstractGeysers are unique hydrothermal features, requiring specific geometry, fluid, and vapor input, and heat to produce eruptions. In a geyser eruption, the decompression of superheated hydrothermal fluids results in a conversion of thermal to kinetic energy. Recent studies conclude that a laterally offset cavity structure (bubble trap) plays an integral role in the geyser eruption process. In this second study of Spouter Geyser, Yellowstone National Park (YNP), we build on the geyser structure developed in the first publication and explore how structural components, such as the bubble trap, control eruption dynamics. We utilize time‐lapse electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and transient electromagnetics (TEM) geophysical methods to track changes in the saturation of conductive hydrothermal fluid and resistive vapor through the eruption cycle. Additionally, we use pressure‐temperature transducer data to measure eruption and recharge durations over the past 23 years at Spouter Geyser, identifying long‐period trends in geyser behavior. The geophysics results support the bubble trap model, capturing an increase in resistivity in the bubble trap structure during the recharge phase interpreted as a vapor saturation increase. The TEM also captures a resistivity increase in the 20–30 m depth interval during the eruption phase, interpreted as a vapor‐dominated “flash eruption zone” where the superheated hydrothermal fluids flash into steam and drive fluid out of this zone during the eruption. From the temperature time‐series detailing 23 years of eruption and recharge durations, we find that eruption durations have remained constant at ∼2 hr while recharge durations have decreased linearly at 6.6 min/year.

A Long‐Term Earthquake Catalog for the Endeavour Segment: Constraints on the Extensional Cycle and Evidence for Hydrothermal Venting Supported by Propagating Rifts

AbstractWe use ocean bottom seismometer data from the Endeavour segment of the Juan de Fuca ridge to construct a long‐term earthquake catalog for an intermediate spreading rate mid‐ocean ridge. We present >50,000 new earthquake locations for 2016–2021 from the Ocean Networks Canada NEPTUNE cabled observatory and relocate earthquakes from two autonomous networks in 1995 and 2003–2006. The catalog comprises >85,000 earthquakes located using three‐dimensional segment‐scale P and S wave velocity models from a prior tomography experiment. Despite the small footprints of networks near the segment center, locations show good agreement with geologic features at segment ends. The improved locations show that the northern Endeavour segment ruptured southwards from 48.3°N to 48.05°N during two diking events in early 2005, possibly accompanied by diking on the West Valley (WV) propagator. Persistent off‐axis seismicity near the segment center appears to be related to the WV and Cobb propagating rifts which we infer extend ∼10 km closer to the Endeavour segment center than is apparent in bathymetry. We suggest that the proximity of the propagators to the Endeavour vent fields (VFs) contributes to the localization, vigor, and longevity of the fields by focusing permeability through ongoing fracturing and by limiting extrusive magmatism through degassing of the axial magma lens. Increasing rates of seismicity beneath the VFs beginning in late 2018 and a deepening of earthquakes in 2020 indicate that the central portion of the segment may be entering the later stages of the eruptive cycle.

Eruption sequence of the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai explosion from back-projection of teleseismic P waves

The explosive eruption occurred at Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai on January 15, 2022, generating atmospheric waves, meteotsunamis, tsunamis, and seismic waves recorded worldwide. Energetic signals of seismic surface waves indicate multiple explosive events, but the detailed eruption episodes are hard to unravel from dispersive long-period surface waves. In this study, we performed the back-projection (BP) analysis using the teleseismic P-waves to clarify the sequence of multiple explosive eruptions. The BP results successfully detected the locations and timing of multiple explosions even though P-waves from each eruption were overlapped and masked by other seismic signals and noises. The results suggest that the series of explosive eruptions can be divided into two parts of eruption sequences. The first sequence started at 04:02 UTC, escalated into major explosions at 04:15 UTC and 200 - 300 s afterward, and lasted at least until 04:35 UTC. The second sequence began about 4 hours later (08:26 UTC) and continued for about 6 - 7 minutes, including a massive eruption at 08:31 UTC. The estimated origin times of each eruption episode determined in this study are consistent with successive arrivals of long-period surface wave trains at frequencies higher than 10 mHz. The time intervals of explosive eruptions in the first sequence suggested that the significant explosive eruptions intermittently occurred at around 270 - 280 s intervals. This interval is nearly equivalent to the eigenfrequencies of the atmospheric resonant oscillation with the Earth at 3.7 mHz. Since the observed amplitude spectra of this eruption exhibit a conspicuous spectral peak at 3.7 mHz, our BP results indicate that the eruption cycle may be synchronized with the eigen-period of the atmosphere-lithosphere coupled mode.

The Qixiangzhan eruption, Changbaishan-Tianchi volcano, China/DPRK: new age constraints and their implications

Zircon double dating (ZDD) of comendite lava reveals an eruption age of 7.0 ± 0.9 ka for the Qixiangzhan eruption (QXZ), Changbaishan-Tianchi volcano, China/DPRK. This age is supported by new 40Ar/39Ar sanidine experiments and a previous age control from charcoal at the base of the QXZ. The revised age supports correlations with distal ash in Eastern China and Central Japan and establishes a significant (estimated at Volcanic Explosivity Index 5+) eruption that may provide a useful Holocene stratigraphic marker in East Asia. The new age indicates that the QXZ lava does not record a ca. 17 ka Hilina Pali/Tianchi geomagnetic field excursion but rather a heretofore unrecognized younger Holocene excursion at ca. 7–8 ka. Comparison between U–Th zircon crystallization and ZDD as well as 40Ar/39Ar sanidine ages indicates a protracted period of accumulation of the QXZ magma that extends from ca. 18 ka to the eruption age. This connotes an eruption that mixed remobilized early formed crystals (antecrysts) from prior stages of magma accumulation with crystals formed near the time of eruption. Based on these results, a recurrence rate of ca. 7–8 ka for the Changbaishan-Tianchi magma system is found over the last two major eruption cycles.

Real-time probabilistic assessment of volcanic hazard for tephra dispersal and fallout at Mt. Etna: the 2021 lava fountain episodes

Starting from February 2021, Mt. Etna (Italy) experienced a period of intense explosive activity with 17 lava fountain episodes between 16 February and 1 April 2021. During the eruptive cycle, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-Osservatorio Etneo (INGV-OE) issued 62 alert notifications known as VONAs (Volcano Observatory Notice for Aviation) to inform the aeronautical authorities about the volcanic activity. We present an automated VONA-based workflow aimed at real-time assessment of the volcanic hazard due to tephra fallout at Mt. Etna. When a VONA reporting tephra emission is issued by INGV-OE, numerical simulations accounting for atmospheric and eruptive uncertainties are automatically initialized to produce probabilistic hazard maps of tephra fallout and atmospheric dispersal. We applied the workflow to three lava fountains that occurred during the 2021 eruptive cycle. To test the modelling results, we compared the simulated ground load with field data, and the extent and position of the simulated volcanic cloud with the observed or estimated volcanic cloud from the Toulouse Volcanic Ash Advisory Center. Overall, we found a good match between simulated and observed quantities (tephra loads and volcanic cloud position), especially when accurate information on eruptive conditions (column height and duration) are supplied by the VONAs. Finally, through a statistical analysis, we found that column height and wind field are fundamental in determining tephra ground accumulation. For this reason, these parameters should be constrained by observational data as accurately as possible when performing numerical simulations, especially in the line of developing operational workflows.

Divergent tooth development mechanisms of Mexican tetra fish (Astyanax mexicanus) of Pachón cave origin

The Mexican tetra (Astyanax mexicanus) is one of the fresh water teleost fish models in evolutionary developmental biology. The existence of two morphs: eyed, pigmented surface fish and blind depigmented cavefish from multiple cave populations, provides a unique system to study adaptive radiation. Compared to the adult surface fish, cavefish have large oral jaws with an increased number of structurally-complex teeth. Early tooth development has not been studied in detail in cavefish populations. In this study, bone-stained growth series and vital dye staining was used to trace the development and replacement of dentitions in Pachón cavefish. Our results show that first tooth eruption was delayed in cavefish compared to the surface fish. In particular, the first tooth eruption cycle persisted until 35 days post fertilization (dpf). Unlike surface fish, there are multicuspid teeth in cavefish first generation dentition. In addition to the teeth in the marginal oral jaw bones, Pachón cavefish have teeth in the ectopterygoid bone of the palatine roof. Next, we characterised the expression of ectodysplasin signalling pathway genes in tooth-forming regions of surface and cavefish. Interestingly, higher expression of Eda and Edar was found in cavefish compared to the surface fish. The altered ectodysplasin expression needs further investigation to confirm the different molecular mechanisms for tooth development in the oral and pharyngeal regions of surface fish and cavefish.

Permutation entropy variations in seismic noise before and after eruptive activity at Shinmoedake volcano, Kirishima complex, Japan

Permutation entropy (PE) is a complexity metric that encodes a time series into sequences of symbols and can be used to decipher between deterministic and stochastic behavior. This study investigates PE variations in seismic noise during three eruption cycles in 2011, 2017, and 2018 at Shinmoedake volcano, Japan. The volcano is monitored by a dedicated seismic network and by infrasound microphones that recorded continuously during the aforementioned eruptions. The frequency range 1–7 Hz was used in order to infer temporal changes of PE in seismic noise and minimize any human contributions. The results showed that PE values decreased before the occurrence of each eruption. By combining these results with other observations we can attribute this decrease in PE to two reasons: first, to the occurrence of volcanic tremor that is a deterministic signal, and second, to magma migration at shallower depth beneath Shinmoedake which can attenuate high-frequency seismic waves and thus result in a less stochastic signal. PE also exhibited a spike-like increase just before the onset of the three eruptions. In 2011 and 2017, this feature was probably associated with bubble growth and collapse due to the interaction between the aquifer and high temperature magma. In 2018 the aquifer had mostly evaporated; hence, the spike in PE values was likely generated by fracturing of solidified magma within the conduit as fresh magma was pushing its way upwards. These results show that PE is a potentially useful tool for monitoring seismic noise at volcanoes and can contribute toward forecasting volcanic eruptions in conjunction with other widely used methodologies.Graphical

Analysis of Volcanic Development Model and Main Controlling Factors of Oil Distribution in the Third Member of Shahejie Formation in Zaoyuan Oilfield

In order to clarify the influence in the volcanic mode and structure on the oil reservoirs, the volcanic reservoir characteristics, volcanic eruption pattern, and volcanic eruption period of the third member of the Shahejie formation in the Dagang Oilfield Zao35 fault block are studied by combining logging, 3D seismic, and production data, and to provide geological basis for the subsequent development of volcanic reservoirs. The results show that the volcanic body of the Zao35 fault block is jointly controlled by the fissure-centered eruption mode, and there are three strings of bead-shaped eruption centers as well as a fault overflow channel. Based on the seismic response characteristics, the volcanic rocks can be divided into three main eruption cycles. Moreover, combined with the relatively stable mudstone interlayer encountered by the single well, it can be further divided into eight volcanic eruption periods. There are three different lava units in the overflow facies of each stage, namely thick layer dense basalt, basalt with pores developed at the top and dense at the bottom, and basalt with pores developed at the top and dense in the middle. Influenced by the volcanic development model, the oil is mainly distributed in the volcanic reservoir on the slope belt between the central eruption and the fracture eruption. Affected by volcanic eruption periods, the pore basalt at the top and bottom of each period controls the distribution of the oil reserves. Therefore, the thick layer stomatal basalt located between the two eruption modes is the key target of the next development.

Conduit processes in crystal-rich dacitic magma and implications for eruptive cycles at Guagua Pichincha volcano, Ecuador

Stratovolcanoes are commonly characterised by cyclic eruptive activity marked by transitions between dome-forming, Vulcanian, Subplinian and Plinian eruptions. Guagua Pichincha volcano (Ecuador) has been a location of such cyclicity for the past ~ 2000 years, with Plinian eruptions in the first and tenth centuries AD (Anno Domini/after Christ), and CE (Common Era) 1660, which were separated by dome-forming to Subplinian eruptions, such as the recent 1999–2001 eruption. These cycles are therefore a prominent example of effusive-explosive transitions at varying timescales. Here, we investigate the reasons for such shifts in activity by focusing on degassing and outgassing processes within the conduit. We have coupled a petrophysical and textural analysis of dacites from the CE 1660 Plinian eruption and the 1999–2001 dome-forming/Vulcanian eruption, with different percolation models in order to better understand the role of degassing on eruptive style. We demonstrate that the transition from dome-forming to Plinian activity is correlated with differences in phenocryst content and consequently in bulk viscosity. A lower initial phenocryst content and viscosity is inferred for the Plinian case, which promotes faster ascent, closed-system degassing, fragmentation and explosive activity. In contrast, dome-forming phases are promoted by a higher magma viscosity due to higher phenocryst content, with slower ascent enhancing gas escape and microlite crystallization, decreasing explosivity and yielding effusive activity.ResumenLos estratovolcanes se caracterizan comúnmente por presentar actividad eruptiva cíclica, marcada por transiciones entre erupciones formadoras de domos y erupciones de tipo Vulcanianas, Subplinianas y Plinianas. El volcán Guagua Pichincha (Ecuador) ha dado lugar a tal ciclicidad durante los últimos ~ 2000 años, con erupciones Plinianas tanto en los siglos Primero y Décimo, como en el año 1660, las cuales estuvieron intercaladas por erupciones formadoras de domos y de tipo Subplinianas, tal como ocurrió durante la erupción reciente de 1999–2001. Estos ciclos son, por lo tanto, ejemplos destacados de transiciones eruptivas de tipo efusiva-explosiva a escalas de tiempo variadas. En este trabajo, investigamos las razones de tales cambios de actividad enfocándonos en procesos de exsolución y pérdida de gases del magma en el conducto (desgasificación en sistemas cerrado y abierto). Hemos acoplado análisis petrofísicos y texturales tanto de dacitas de la erupción Pliniana de 1660, como de la erupción formadora de domos/Vulcaniana de 1999–2001, junto con diferentes modelos de percolación, para así comprender mejor el rol de la exsolución de volátiles en el estilo eruptivo. Demostramos que la transición desde una actividad efusiva formadora de domos a una Pliniana está correlacionada con diferencias en el contenido de fenocristales y, subsecuentemente, con la viscosidad total del magma. Un contenido inicial menor de fenocristales y una menor viscosidad se infiere para el caso Pliniano, lo que promueve un ascenso más rápido, desgasificación en sistema cerrado, fragmentación y finalmente actividad explosiva. Por el contrario, las fases formadoras de domos son promovidas por una viscosidad mayor debido a un contenido mayor de fenocristales, con ascenso más lento promoviendo a su vez el escape de gases y la cristalización de microlitos, disminuyendo la explosividad y produciendo actividad efusiva.

Eruption Forecasting of Strokkur Geyser, Iceland, Using Permutation Entropy

AbstractA volcanic eruption is usually preceded by seismic precursors, but their interpretation and use for forecasting the eruption onset time remain a challenge. A part of the eruptive processes in open conduits of volcanoes may be similar to those encountered in geysers. Since geysers erupt more often, they are useful sites for testing new forecasting methods. We tested the application of Permutation Entropy (PE) as a robust method to assess the complexity in seismic recordings of the Strokkur geyser, Iceland. Strokkur features several minute‐long eruptive cycles, enabling us to verify in 63 recorded cycles whether PE behaves consistently from one eruption to the next one. We performed synthetic tests to understand the effect of different parameter settings in the PE calculation. Our application to Strokkur shows a distinct, repeating PE pattern consistent with previously identified phases in the eruptive cycle. We find a systematic increase in PE within the last 15 s before the eruption, indicating that an eruption will occur. We quantified the predictive power of PE, showing that PE performs better than seismic signal strength or quiescence when it comes to forecasting eruptions.

Trace elements in olivine fingerprint the source of 2018 magmas and shed light on explosive-effusive eruption cycles at Kīlauea Volcano

Understanding magma genesis and the evolution of intensive parameters (temperature, pressure, composition, degree of melting) in the mantle source of highly active volcanic systems is crucial for interpreting magma supply changes over time and recognizing cyclic behavior to anticipate future volcanic behavior. Major and trace elements in olivine are commonly used to study variations in mantle lithologies and melting conditions (e.g., temperature, pressure, oxygen fugacity) affecting the mantle over time. Here, we track the temporal evolution of primary melts through the most recent cycle of explosive and effusive eruptions at Kīlauea (Hawai‘i), which spans the last ∼500 years. We report major and trace elements in olivine from the last explosive period (∼1500 – early 1820’s Keanakāko‘i Tephra) and the most recent decade of the current effusive period (2018 LERZ, 2015–2018 Pu‘u‘ō‘ō, 2008–2018 lava lake and 2020 eruption in Halema‘uma‘u). Scandium concentrations in olivine allow characterizing changes in mantle source between 1500 and 2018, and suggest that the recent (2015–2018) magma feeding the Pu‘u‘ō‘ō cone did not significantly interact with the magma that erupted in the LERZ in 2018. The evolution of olivine and melt compositions over the past 500 years is not easily reconcilable with variations in mantle potential temperature, pressure of mantle melt pooling and storage, or oxygen fugacity. Instead, Sc, Mn, and Co concentrations and Ni/Mg ratio in high forsterite (Fo >87) olivine advocate for an increase in the proportion of clinopyroxene in the mantle source associated with a slightly higher degree of partial melting from 1500 to 2018. Changes in primitive melt compositions and degrees of mantle melting may well modulate magma supply to the crust and formation-replenishment of steady or ephemeral summit reservoirs, and thereby control transitions between explosive and effusive periods at Kīlauea. Analyzing trace elements in olivine at Kīlauea and elsewhere could therefore provide important clues on subtle changes occurring at the mantle level that might herald changes in volcanic behavior.

Volcanism at the end of continental rifting: The Cretaceous syn-rift to post-rift transition in the Songliao Basin (NE China)

The evolution of volcanism at the latest stages of continental rifting and its transition to the post-rift stage are poorly known. A Cretaceous rifting episode characterized the Songliao Basin (NE China) between 150 and 105–100 Ma. The transition to the post-rifting stage was marked by an increase in the subsidence rate due to thermal contraction. Here we present new major, trace element and Sr-Nd isotopic data on the volcanic rocks sampled in wells located in the Songliao Basin. These rocks are representative of two major eruptive cycles: K1yc1 (115–106 Ma, syn-rift stage) and K1yc3 (105–102 Ma, transition to the post-rift stage). The K1yc1 and K1yc3 rocks were erupted during the late phases of the Songliao rifting and have been found in the two members of the Yingcheng Formation. The K1yc1 rocks consist of trachybasalts, basaltic trachyandesites, and rhyolites. The K1yc3 rocks show a homogeneous rhyolitic composition. Both the K1yc1 and K1yc3 rocks display an alkaline, Within-Plate affinity. The trace element patterns and the isotopic composition of the K1yc1 mafic rocks indicate that they are the product of the fractional crystallization from a parent magma with an OIB signature. The felsic rocks from K1yc1 and K1yc3 have similar major and trace element patterns and originate from fractional crystallization of the K1yc1 trachybasalt and assimilation of upper crust material. The bimodal K1yc1 volcanism is related to fractionation processes producing low amounts of magmas with intermediate compositions. The lack of mafic eruption in K1yc3 is due to the reduction of porosity of the crustal rocks and a transition from ‘hot’ to ‘cold’ crust related to the thermal subsidence from syn-rift to post-rift stage. The late stage of the Songliao rifting volcanism coincides with a shift from a roll-backing phase of the Paleo-Pacific slab to its passive sinking in the asthenosphere.

Cryospheric Impacts on Volcano-Magmatic Systems

In contrast to water and air, ice is the most dynamic enveloping medium and unique environment for volcanic eruptions. While all three environments influence volcanic activity and eruption products, the cryospheric eruption environment is unique because: 1) it supports rapid changes between those environments (i.e. subglacial, subaqueous, subaerial), 2) it promotes a wide range of eruption styles within a single eruption cycle (explosive, effusive), 3) it creates unique edifice-scale morphologies and deposits, and 4) it can modulate the timing and rates of magmatism. The distinctive products of cryospheric eruptions offer a robust means of tracking paleoclimate changes at the local, regional and global scale. We provide a framework for understanding the influence of the cryosphere on glaciovolcanic systems, landforms and deposits.

Investigating the Changes in Periodicity of the CO2‐Driven Cold‐Water Geyser Eruptions Through Field Observation at Tenmile Geyser, Utah

AbstractCO2‐driven cold‐water geysers periodically ejecting cold water are rare. Although coalescence and expansion of ascending CO2 bubbles can explain the eruption process, the triggering conditions and eruption cycle remain unclear. To clarify the triggering conditions, hydrostatic pressure in the well was decreased by pumping to induce eruptions. All four pumping tests successfully induced eruptions by decreasing the pressure of ∼104 Pa. In the absence of artificial perturbations, similar reductions in pressure were observed during the intervals between two consecutive eruptions (IBEs). During IBE, the atmospheric pressure (Pair) and temperature (Tair) controlled the generation of the CO2 bubbles which directly induced the pressure reduction in the well. Especially under the persistent low Pair and high Tair, the length of IBE showed a minimum value of 3.90 hr during field observations. We suggest that the atmospheric perturbations are the causes of the changes in geyser periodicity, given consistent geological and hydraulic conditions.

Precursory pressure oscillation in a laboratory geyser system

We conducted laboratory experiments using a setup consisting of a flask and a conduit, which reproduces cyclic eruptions and the time-predictability of natural geysers. We measured pressure and temperature in the flask and the eruptive mass of each eruption, varying three geometric parameters of the experimental system: (i) the flask volume, (ii) the inner diameter of the glass conduit and (iii) the initial water level in the conduit. During the heating stage of each eruption cycle, continuous pressure oscillations were observed in the flask. The pressure measurement and visual observation using normal-speed and high-speed cameras revealed that the pressure oscillations consisted of two components: (i) lower-frequency fluctuation related to the vertical displacements of the water column in the conduit and (ii) superimposing pulses caused by bubble nucleation in the flask. The dominant frequency of the pressure oscillations decreased systematically toward the next eruption. To explain the frequency of pressure oscillations, we present a mathematical model relating the pressure change in the flask to the vertical displacements of the water column in the conduit. The frequency calculated by our model well explained the observed frequency, which suggested that the oscillation frequency was controlled by the three geometric parameters and the effective bulk modulus of the fluid in the flask. The systematic decrease of dominant frequency toward the next eruption was explained by a decrease in the effective bulk modulus of the fluid in the flask due to an increase in gas volume fraction by heating. We also found that the erupted mass of an eruption controlled the initial frequency just after the eruption. The larger erupted mass causes a larger temperature drop in the flask, lowering the initial gas volume fraction to increase the initial oscillation frequency.

Forecasting mechanical failure and the 26 June 2018 eruption of Sierra Negra Volcano, Galápagos, Ecuador.

Using recent advancements in high-performance computing data assimilation to combine satellite InSAR data with numerical models, the prolonged unrest of the Sierra Negra volcano in the Galápagos was tracked to provide a fortuitous, but successful, forecast 5 months in advance of the 26 June 2018 eruption. Subsequent numerical simulations reveal that the evolution of the stress state in the host rock surrounding the Sierra Negra magma system likely controlled eruption timing. While changes in magma reservoir pressure remained modest (<15 MPa), modeled widespread Mohr-Coulomb failure is coincident with the timing of the 26 June 2018 moment magnitude 5.4 earthquake and subsequent eruption. Coulomb stress transfer models suggest that the faulting event triggered the 2018 eruption by encouraging tensile failure along the northern portion of the caldera. These findings provide a critical framework for understanding Sierra Negra’s eruption cycles and evaluating the potential and timing of future eruptions.

The 2001‒2021 Ongoing Eruptive Cycle of Shiveluch Volcano, Kamchatka

The 2001‒2021 Ongoing Eruptive Cycle of Shiveluch Volcano, Kamchatka

Volcanic unrest at Nevados de Chillán (Southern Andean Volcanic Zone) from January 2019 to November 2020, imaged by DInSAR

The volcanic complex of Nevados de Chillán, located in the Southern Volcanic Zone (SVZ) of the Andes, has been active for the past 640 ± 20 ka. Its volcanic activity includes dome forming eruptions, explosive events, and lava flows. The most recent eruption cycle started in January 2016. We employ DInSAR time-series from Sentinel-1 data to investigate the unrest episode from January 2019 to November 2020. Two distinct periods of unrest are recognized in the time series. The first period (from January to October 2019) coincides with explosive events, dome growth inside the active crater, and a decrease in seismic activity but does not present a significant deformation. The second period (October 2019 to November 2020) is characterized by a displacement towards the sensor's line-of-sight of 100–120 mm. The observed surface deformation is compatible with an inflation source approximately 1.5 km south-southwest of the present active vent, at 5.5 ± 0.5 km depth from the surface, and with a volume change of 0.044 ± 0.014 km3. The most likely explanation for the observed inflation of Nevados de Chillan is the intrusion of magma in a reservoir feeding the current eruption cycle.