AbstractThis paper estimates the impacts of external financing on market risk for the listed firms in the Vietnam hotel and entertainment industries, esp. after the financial crisis 2007-2009 first, by using quantitative and analytical methods to estimate asset and equity beta of total 12 listed companies in Vietnam hotel and entertainment industry with a proper traditional model. We found out that the beta values, in general, for many institutions are acceptable.Secondly under 3 different scenarios of changing leverage (in 2011 financial reports, 30% up and 20% down), we recognized that the risk level, measured by equity and asset beta mean, decreases when leverage increases to 30% and vice versa. Third, by changing leverage in 3 scenarios, we recognized the dispersion of risk level increases (measured by equity beta var) if the leverage decreases down to 20%.Keywords: Equity beta, financial structure, financial crisis, risk, external financing, entertainment industry.IntroductionFinancial system development is positively related to the economic growth and Vietnam hotel and entertainment industry is considered as one of active economic sectors. The issues are:Issue 1 : Whether the risk level of hotel and entertainment firms under the different changing scenarios of leverage increase or decrease so much.Issue 2: Whether the dispersed distribution of beta values becomes large in the different changing scenarios of leverage estimated in the hotel and entertainment industry.Conceptual theoriesThe impact of financial leverage on the economy: A sound and effective financial system has positive effect on the development and growth of the economy. Financial institutions not only help businesses to reduce agency problems but also enable them to enhance liquidity capacity and long-term capital. Financial innovation also reduces the cost of diversification. In a specific industry such as consumer good industry, on the one hand, using leverage with a decrease or increase in certain periods could affect tax obligations, revenues, profit after tax, technology innovation, compensation and jobs of the industry.During and after financial crises such as the 2007-2009 crisis, there were concerns about the role of financial leverage of many countries in both developed and developing markets. On the one hand, lending programs and packages might support the business sectors. On the other hand, it might create more risks for the business and economy.MethodologyIn order to calculate systemic risk results and leverage impacts, we used the live data during the crisis period 2007-2011 from the stock exchange market in Viet Nam (HOSE and HNX and UPCOM). In this research, analytical research method is used, philosophical method is used and specially, leverage scenario analysis method is used. Analytical data is from the situation of listed hotel and entertainment firms in VN stock exchange and curent tax rate is 25%.Finally, we use the results to suggest policy for both these enterprises, relevant organizations and government.General Data AnalysisThe research sample has total 12 listed firms in the hotel and entertainment market with the live data from the stock exchange. First, we estimate equity beta values of these firms and use financial leverage to estimate asset beta values of them. Secondly, we change the leverage reported in F.S 2011 to increasing 30% and reducing 20% to see the sensitivity of beta values. We found out that in 3 cases, asset beta mean values are estimated at 0,262, 0,216 and 0,326 which are negatively correlated with the leverage. Also in 3 scenarios, we find out equity beta mean values (0,409, 0,362 and 0,462) are also negatively correlated with the leverage. Leverage degree changes definitely have certain effects on asset and equity beta values.DiscussionData used are from total 12 listed hotel and entertainment companies on VN stock exchange (HOSE and HNX mainly). …
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