Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rate Research Articles

Real exchange rate misalignment and economic growth in East African least developed countries

The behavior of real exchange rate remained an important policy concern for small open economies as its poor management adversely affects their economy with substantial welfare losses. This study examined the main drivers of real effective exchange rate (REER) misalignment and its effect on the economic growth of East African least developed countries (LDCs). The study applied Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and dynamic OLS estimators for panel and ARDL Bound testing for time series data over the period 1980–2019. The panel results revealed that the REER of LDCs were significantly misaligned for the study period. The REER appreciates for an improved terms of trade and net foreign asset position, while it depreciates for an increased trade openness and broad money supply in the long-run. The panel results also confirmed that the GDP per capita would improve for an increase in real investment and human capital, while it decline for an increase in openness, net foreign aid inflows and REER misalignment in the long-run. The ARDL bound testing results generally support the panel estimation results. In the short-run, the REER misalignment would impede growth of Ethiopia while it promotes growth of Kenya. Thus, the central banks and policy makers of East African LDCs should initiate a consistent macroeconomic policies and regulatory frameworks focusing on the main drivers of equilibrium REER to correct currency misalignment and to support their promising economic growth.

What Does Oil in Triple Digits Mean for India?

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is expected to impact India’s economy through several channels but we posit first order impacts will emanate from higher crude prices. If crude prices were to average $100/barrel in 2022, they will constitute a discernible adverse terms of trade shock for India’s economy that could shave a percentage point off India’s growth, pressure inflation further and widen the current account deficit towards 3% of GDP. How should policy respond? A negative terms of trade shock would argue for a more depreciated equilibrium real effective exchange rate. Policymakers should let this adjustment gradually take place to enable the corresponding “expenditure switching” needed to bring external imbalances back to sustainable levels. A sustained supply shock will make the trade-off for monetary policy more acute, with downside risks to growth accompanied by upside risks to inflation expectations. While the 2022-23 Budget created buffers to protect against shocks, fiscal policy will face its own set of trade-offs in simultaneously attempting to accommodate the shock, support growth and preserve macroeconomic stability. Beyond the near term, policymakers must consider systematically hedging crude price imports in global markets to protect the economy from periods of outsized volatility, apart from the medium-term objective of reducing dependence on imported crude.

Nexus Between Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth: A Case of Pakistan

This study investigates the nexus between real effective exchange rate (REER) misalignment and the economic growth of Pakistan. It relies on a single equation model for estimating equilibrium exchange rate using the autoregressive distributive lags (ARDL) approach. The study further uses the growth equation to explore the effects of misalignment of RER on growth proxies. The data were obtained from the official websites of the World development indicator, IMF, Penn World Table, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, and Ministry of Finance Pakistan. In terms of trade, the data was available on three different bases in different editions of the economic survey of Pakistan. All unit values of imports and exports were changed as per new base 1991 so that the data from editions of survey becomes uniform. The study takes data from 1970 to 2020. The study findings show that gross capital formation, trade openness, and government spending have a substantial role in defining the equilibrium REER. The findings also identify a positive and significant effect of REER misalignment on the economic growth of Pakistan. This paper contributes by measuring the degree of misalignment of real exchange rates using the single equation approach which is rare in the case of Pakistani literature. The single equation approach not only measures the misalignment by PPP factor but also considers basic economic fundamentals such as trade openness, terms of trade, productivity differentials etc. The study further provides evidence of misalignment with economic growth over a longer period (1970-2020). The findings suggest the effective use of exchange rate policy to control exchange rate misalignment to get higher and more sustainable economic growth. The study is useful for policymakers in the long-term economic planning of Pakistan. The results can be generalized for other economies with similar features.

Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate and Misalignment: The Sierra Leone Perspective

This paper estimates the equilibrium real effective exchange rate and determine the level of exchange rate misalignment in Sierra Leone, for the period 1980 to 2018. The paper utilizes the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate methodology within the Johansen maximum likelihood framework to estimate the long run equilibrium real effective exchange rate. The unit root test result shows that all the variables are integrated of order one, whilst the cointegration test establishes the existence of one cointegrating vector as evidenced by both the Trace and Maximum Eigen Statistics. The normalized long run results reveal that openness, government expenditure and money supply were the most significant determinants of the real effective exchange rate in the long run. Furthermore, the findings reveal that the real effective exchange rate experienced sustained deviation from the long run equilibrium real effective exchange rate during the study period, with episodes of overvaluation and undervaluation. Specifically, the real effective exchange rate was overvalued by 3.69 percent during the period between 1980-1985; undervalued by 1.8 percent between 1986-1997, and overvalued by 0.9 percent between 1998-2004, Thus, the paper reveals episodes of misalignment of the real effective exchange rate. Based on these findings, the study recommends that, the monetary authorities should ensure stability of the exchange rate and maintain price stability, through sterilization of capital flows as well as contain money growth within the statutory limit.

One Size Does Not Fit All: Structural Problems of Countervailing Currency Manipulation

The USDOC's new methodology of calculating the amount of benefit as a result of a currency undervaluation raises both theoretical and structural questions. Not only that the econometric model used to calculate the extent of an undervaluation is subject to huge uncertainties, but also it is structurally impossible to calculate a precise amount of duty to offset promotion effect of a subsidy accrued from an undervaluation for individual companies. This paper examines the recent U.S. final rule on countervailing currency manipulation, highlighting the methodological problems of estimating equilibrium real effective exchange rate. For the foreseeable future, however, it would be legally feasible for the USDOC to discretionarily conduct a currency subsidy investigation. If the USDOC makes an affirmative final determination in the first currency countervailing duty investigation against Vietnam, it may open a pandora's box for US industry petitioners.

Equilibrium Exchange Rates And Misalignments: The Beer Approach

Bu çalışmada, BEER (Davranışsal Denge Döviz Kuru) yaklaşımı ile cari açık sorunu yaşayan 15 gelişmekte olan ülke için 1995-2012 döneminde uzun dönem denge döviz kuru ve sapmaların belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Uygulanan panel veri analizi neticesinde, uzun dönem denge reel efektif döviz kurunun en önemli belirleyicisinin göreli verimlilik olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca net yabancı varlık stokundaki değişmelerin de önemli etkiler yarattığı gözlenmiştir. Elde edilen uzun dönem denge reel efektif döviz kuru değerleri, ulusal ve uluslararası ekonomik gelişmelere bağlı olarak denge düzeyinden sapmaların dönemden döneme ve ülkeye göre önemli farklılıklar gösterdiğini ortaya koymuştur. Buna göre, 2008 küresel krizinin reel efektif döviz kurları üzerinde önemli etkilerinin olduğu görülmüştür. Hindistan, Polonya, Hırvatistan ve Litvanya’da reel efektif döviz kurunun uzun dönem denge düzeyinden sapmasının diğer ülkelere oranla düşük oranda olduğu ancak Güney Afrika, Mısır, Gana, Kolombiya, Uruguay, Bulgaristan ve Tunus’ta yüksek oranda olduğu belirlenmiştir. Türkiye için elde edilen sonuçlar, reel efektif döviz kurunun seyrinin genel olarak krizlerin habercisi olduğunu göstermiştir. Reel efektif döviz kurunun 2003’ten itibaren küresel krizin etkilerinin hissedildiği 2009 yılına kadar hem yurtiçi hem de küresel ölçekteki gelişmelere bağlı olarak denge düzeyine göre aşırı değerli olduğu ve sonraki süreçte 2011 yılından itibaren ise yaşanan gelişmelere bağlı olarak düşük değerli bir görünüme sahip olduğu belirlenmiştir.

Gold price and exchange rates: A panel smooth transition regression model for the G7 countries

In this paper we investigate whether the price of gold is affected by internal and external macroeconomic performance, which is mainly reflected in exchange rate movements. Based on the G7 countries and using annual data for the period 1980–2016, we test the impact of the effective exchange rate and the interest rate on the price of gold. Departing from previous studies, we propose that the observed exchange rate should be taken into account in accordance with the equilibrium value of the currency and the implied misalignment. Τhe equilibrium real effective exchange rate is estimated using recent panel cointegration techniques, which are strengthened with the theoretical assumptions of an external balance model. Next, we estimate a two-regime Panel Smooth Transition Regression model with a monotonic transition function to capture the nonlinear dependency between the gold price and the macroeconomic variables. Our results show that investors tend to invest in gold as the misalignment rate of the real effective exchange rate increases. Furthermore, when the interest rate increase is rather high, investors are less willing to sell gold for higher return assets. Overall, our evidence confirms that gold serves as a hedge only when financial risk is high.

Taxa de câmbio de equilíbrio e desalinhamento cambial: evidências para o Brasil (1994-2011)

O trabalho estima a taxa de câmbio real efetiva de equilíbrio e o desalinhamento cambial para o Brasil no período de 1994T3 a 2011T4. O trabalho contribui em três aspectos: i) constrói a série de taxa de câmbio real efetiva considerando os 20 principais parceiros comerciais; ii) os determinantes da taxa de câmbio real efetiva são calculados em relação àqueles dos 20 principais parceiros comerciais; iii) calcula uma medida de desalinhamento corrente e uma de desalinhamento total. As evidências indicam: sobrevalorização no período de câmbio rígido (1994T3 a 1998T4); subvalorização no período de câmbio flexível (1999T1 a 2011T4); subvalorização no período pós-crise do subprime (2008T3 a 2011T4); e uma sobrevalorização em 2011.

An Assessment of the Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Egypt: A Structural VAR Approach

This paper calculates the equilibrium real effective exchange rate for the Egyptian economy during the period (1974-2012). The paper reviews the evolution of Egypt’s exchange rate policy and the most significant developments of its real effective exchange rate during the same period. Using a structural vector auto-regression model identified with long-run restrictions, it evaluates the relative importance of real supply, demand and nominal shocks to the disturbances of Egypt’s real effective exchange rate. The identified shocks and their impulse responses are consistent with the theoretical priors stemming from the Mundell-Fleming model. The main contribution to the fluctuations of the real effective exchange rate, roughly 80 percent, comes from both real demand and supply shocks. The model is used to check if the real exchange rate in Egypt is misaligned during the period under investigation. It shows that the actual real effective exchange rate has deviated from the equilibrium real effective rate with various degrees during the estimation period

The equilibrium real exchange rate: pros and cons of different approaches with application to Latvia

This paper studies various approaches to the equilibrium real effective exchange rate estimation, including structural and direct estimation approaches. It shows their strengths and weaknesses with application to the case of Latvia. Despite the approaches differing considerably in terms of their theoretical background and data used they all indicate that the real exchange rate of Latvia after appreciation during the boom years and subsequent adjustment afterwards remained close to its equilibrium level at the end of the sample period, namely at the end of 2010.

Structural breaks and the equilibrium real effective exchange rate of China: A NATREX approach

This paper investigates the equilibrium real effective exchange rate for the Chinese RMB during the post-reform period, 1982–2010. We extend the NATREX model in several important perspectives and apply it for the first time to China. A wide range of economic fundamentals that are unique to the Chinese economy is introduced into the model. We construct a unique set of quarterly data and employ unit root and cointegration tests that can account for multiple endogenous structural breaks. In addition, to capture the evolution of China's foreign trade pattern, we employ time-varying (i.e. 3-year average) trade weights to construct the real effective exchange rate. We find two structural breaks in the cointegration relationship (in 1988 and 1992). Effective terms of trade, demographic factors, liquidity constraints and government investment are significant determinants of the equilibrium real effective exchange rate. The RMB was overvalued against a basket of 14 currencies until mid-1980s. During 1986–2010, it was undervalued in most years except after the Asian financial crisis in 1997. We have found persistent undervaluation from 2004 onwards. However, the misalignment rates are much lower than those reported by previous studies and the undervaluation rate actually declined sharply in 2008. The undervaluation rate rose modestly in 2009 and sharply in 2010, though it is still lower than what has been suggested by other studies.

Serbia: Policies to enhance competitiveness

The main purpose of the paper is to discuss an apparent erosion of competitiveness of the Serbian economy in the aftermath of the global crisis and to propose a set of policy interventions that would restore the pre-crisis level of competitiveness, as well as support the resumption of institutional and policy reforms needed to close the gap with new EU members and other candidate countries. Comprehensive measures of competitiveness (such as GCI produced by the World Economic Forum), empirical studies, and academic papers provide a wealth of information on key determinants of competitiveness, growth, and current account sustainability. GCI alone measures 111 indicators organized into 12 pillars and three blocks focusing on basic requirements, efficiency and innovation. Empirical studies identified dozens of factors that contribute to or explain import and export dynamics, and determine CA movements with large numbers of possible policy combinations (mixes) that could be associated with desirable growth outcomes. Clearly, not all factors are equally important or really binding. To identify the key binding constraints to competitiveness and sustainable growth of the Serbian economy the paper uses a diagnostic methodology advanced by Rodrik and Hausmann [9] and further developed by Hausmann et al. [1 ]. We confirm recent empirical findings and claims of Serbian businesses that the real effective exchange rate (REER) indeed represents an immediate binding constraint on competitiveness and growth which needs to be addressed as soon as possible. However, it should be stressed that finding and maintaining equilibrium REER is not a panacea that will cure all problems of tradable sector in Serbia. It is closely followed by high real cost of financing and inefficient financial intermediation, expensive and intrusive state (resulting in costly uncompetitive business environment), and inefficient management and labor force (manifested through high unit labor costs or low productivity). These constraints need to be addressed in short sequence to restart the engines of export led growth.

Estimating Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in the Franc Zone

This paper estimates the degree of real exchange rate misalignment in 12 CFA (Communaute Financiere Africaine) franc zone countries over the period 1960–99. Allowing for contemporaneous error co-variances, due to observed cross-sectional dependence, we use seemingly unrelated regressions equation estimations to estimate the equilibrium real effective exchange rate and degree of misalignment in each country. We find significant differences across member-states, however, the largest economies—Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire and Senegal—showed some striking similarities. Just prior to the 1994 devaluation, these three economies were much more overvalued compared with the smaller member-states, some of which were either marginally misaligned or virtually in equilibrium. In 1994, only Cote d'Ivoire is exactly in equilibrium as a result of the devaluation. Our analysis of misalignment for the period after 1994 suggests that some challenges lie ahead for the CFA franc zone, if fixed parity is to be maintained.

The Impact of Oil-Related Incomeon the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Syria

This paper examines the impact of oil-related income, among other fundamentals, on the equilibrium real effective exchange rate (ERER) in Syria. After reviewing the evolution of the Syrian multiple exchange rate regime since 1960 and assessing alternative measures for the exchange rate, the paper analyzes the impact of oil-related income on the ERER in the context of a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model. The analysis concludes that ERER appreciates with higher oil-related income, productivity and net foreign assets, but, at odds with the conventional wisdom, depreciates with higher government expenditures given that an increase in expenditures usually translates into higher imports and weaker current account position. In light of the projected real shocks associated with the depletion of oil and the change in other fundamentals in the context of the ongoing transition to a market economy, a more flexible regime would serve Syria better in the future.

The Impact of Oil-Related Income on the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Syria

This paper examines the impact of oil-related income, among other fundamentals, on the equilibrium real effective exchange rate (ERER) in Syria. After reviewing the evolution of the Syrian multiple exchange rate regime since 1960 and assessing alternative measures for the exchange rate, the paper analyzes the impact of oil-related income on the ERER in the context of a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model. The analysis concludes that ERER appreciates with higher oil-related income, productivity and net foreign assets, but, at odds with the conventional wisdom, depreciates with higher government expenditures given that an increase in expenditures usually translates into higher imports and weaker current account position. In light of the projected real shocks associated with the depletion of oil and the change in other fundamentals in the context of the ongoing transition to a market economy, a more flexible regime would serve Syria better in the future.

Tanzania's Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate

Tanzania's real effective exchange rate (REER) has depreciated sharply since end-2000, reversing the appreciation that took place in the second half of the 1990s. Single-country and panel data estimates, and the external sustainability approach, suggest that Tanzania's REER is currently modestly undervalued relative to its estimated equilibrium level. Looking forward, a modest trend appreciation of the equilibrium REER is expected, consistent with continued high GDP growth and an expected recovery in terms of trade. In addition, capital inflows to Tanzania could be significantly higher than currently expected, to take advantage of Tanzania's natural resources and strong policy framework. If so, these inflows would contribute to an additional appreciation by as much as 20 percent of the equilibrium REER.

Pakistan’s External Trade: Does Exchange Rate Misalignment Matter for Pakistan?

This paper is primarily aimed at assessing the significance of the exchange rate on Pakistan’s foreign trade. It estimates the Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rate (ERER) and exchange rate misalignment for Pakistan using annual data from FY78 to FY06. The Engle Granger cointegration technique is used for the estimation of ERER depending upon various macroeconomic fundamentals as recommended by Edwards (1994). The results of the study are also used for the forecasting of ERER and misalignment up to the year 2010. The results of the study reveal that ERER is determined by variables such as: a) terms of trade, b) trade openness, c) net capital inflows, d) relative productivity differential, e) government consumption, and f) workers’ remittances.

Estimating renminbi (RMB) equilibrium exchange rate

It is claimed that China's currency market interventions have caused massive trade imbalances in favor of China. Without an accurate estimate of RMB's long-run equilibrium value, however, the validity of this claim can’t be ascertained. This paper aims to place the debate about the degree of RMB's misalignment in a tractable framework by estimating the long run equilibrium real effective exchange rate of the currency. Based on estimation of the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) and using Johansen co-integration technique, we conclude that RMB fluctuates around its long-run equilibrium rate within a narrow band. This implies that the currency has not been consistently undervalued. We identify the money supply, the foreign reserve holdings of China's central bank, and a measure of China's productivity as important explanatory variables of renminbi long-run equilibrium value. A discussion of the implications of the empirical findings of this study indicates that China's exchange rate policy may have played an insignificant role in its trade surpluses.

Export Performance and External Competitiveness in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

This paper reviews a broad set of indicators of competitiveness in the Macedonian economy and estimates the equilibrium real effective exchange rate (REER) using different methodologies. Although the REER is broadly in equilibrium at present, structural factors are found to hamper competitiveness. While a more competitive exchange rate might improve short-term export performance, sustained improvements require enhanced productivity and resource reallocation to more dynamic sectors, which depends on reforms to improve the business environment.

Exchange Rate Regime, Real Exchange Rate, Trade Flows and Foreign Direct Investments: The Case of Morocco

Abstract: We study the behavior of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the dirham against the European currencies (the EU15), over the period 1960–2000 (annual data). We measure the volatility using standard deviation, and the misalignments as the difference between the actual REER and the equilibrium REER (the NATREX model). We show that a rise in the volatility of the dirham reduces the trade flows (exports and imports). The misalignments also affect the trade flows: an overvaluation leads to a reduction in Morocco exports, to an increase in Morocco imports, and globally to a deterioration of the trade balance with the European Union. On the other hand, neither the volatility nor the misalignments have an effect on foreign direct investment in favor of Morocco.