Prediction Of Equilibria Research Articles

From households to national statistics: Macroeconomic effects of Women's empowerment

How do shifts in intra-household gender dynamics affect the economy at large? This paper parametrizes intra-household gender-powered decision-making and endogenous distributions of income to allow for the aggregation of key macroeconomic variables. In equilibrium, we find that greater women's empowerment increases precautionary savings to offset low endowment realizations. The effect is stronger among poor households who hedge against hitting a subsistence bound. Given the boost in savings at the bottom of the distribution, more empowerment leads to less poverty and lower income inequality. Another equilibrium prediction of the model is an increase in the household's food intake regardless of income, reflecting women's greater preference for food compared to men. The model's predictions are mapped to Mexico's 2014 National Household Income and Expenditure Survey which identifies the gender of the head of the household. These predictions have policy implications in the areas of monetary policy, social policy, financial intermediation and banking.

Thermodynamic equilibrium predictions of zinc volatilization, migration, and transformation during sludge co-incineration.

The effects of interactions between and among chlorine (Cl), sulfur (S), phosphorus (P), and minerals on migration, transformation, and volatilization of zinc (Zn) were numerically simulated in sludge co-incineration using the chemical thermodynamic equilibrium method. Our results showed that all the minerals of Fe2 O3 , Al2 O3 , Fe2 O3 , and TiO2 except for CaO in the sludge co-incineration system reacted with Zn which inhibited the Zn volatilization. The presence of S and P was beneficial to the formation of ZnSO4 (s) and Zn3 (PO4 )2 (s). Cl weakened the chemical reactions between the minerals and Zn, thus increasing the Zn volatilization. Changes in Zn transformation and migration induced by the coupling of Cl+S were mainly controlled by Cl, S, and the minerals, while those induced by Cl+P and S+P were mainly controlled by P and S+P. The presence of P+Cl, S+Cl, S+P, S+Cl+P, Cl, and Al2 O3 in the coexisting mineral system controlled the reactions between the minerals and Zn.

KOH capture by coal fly ash

The KOH-capture reaction by coal fly ash at suspension-fired conditions was studied through entrained flow reactor (EFR) experiments and chemical equilibrium calculations. The influence of KOH-concentration (50–1000 ppmv), reaction temperature (800–1450 °C), and coal fly ash particle size (D50 = 6.03–33.70 μm) on the reaction was investigated. The results revealed that, at 50 ppmv KOH (molar ratio of K/(Al + Si) = 0.048 of feed), the measured K-capture level (CK) of coal fly ash was comparable to the equilibrium prediction, while at 250 ppmv KOH and above, the measured data were lower than chemical equilibrium. Similar to the KOH-kaolin reaction reported in our previous study, leucite (KAlSi2O6) and kaliophilite (KAlSiO4) were formed from the KOH-coal fly ash reaction. However, coal fly ash captured KOH less effectively compared to kaolin at 250 ppmv KOH and above. Studies at different temperatures showed that, at 800 °C, the KOH-coal fly ash reaction was probably kinetically controlled. At 900–1300 °C it was diffusion limited, while at 1450 °C, it was equilibrium limited to some extent. At 500 ppmv KOH (molar ratio of K/(Al + Si) = 0.481), and a gas residence time of 1.2 s, 0.063 g K/(g additive) and 0.087 g K/(g additive) was captured by coal fly ash (D50 = 10.20 μm) at 900 and 1450 °C, respectively. Experiments with coal fly ash of different particle sizes showed that a higher K-capture level were obtained using finer particle sizes, indicating some internal diffusion control of the process.

Oligopolistic quantity competition with bounded rationality and social comparison

We study sales quantity competition among multiple sellers, through a combination of laboratory experiments and theoretical analyses. We conduct laboratory experiments with a 2×2 design from two dimensions: the procurement cost and the number of sellers. The experimental data eloquently exhibit bell-shaped distributions over all alternatives, with peak values consistently larger than the classical Nash equilibrium predictions. We propose a behavioral model which incorporates the behavioral elements of bounded rationality and social comparison, as well as time trends (the learning process). We derive several useful equilibrium properties of the model. The structural estimations show that the proposed behavioral model can effectively explain the experimental data.

A pairwise surface contact equation of state: COSMO-SAC-Phi

In this work a new method for inclusion of pressure effects in COSMO-type activity coefficient models is proposed. The extension consists in the direct combination of COSMO-SAC and lattice-fluid ideas by the inclusion of free volume in form of holes. The effort when computing pressure (given temperature, volume, and mole numbers) with the proposed model is similar to the cost for computing activity coefficients with any COSMO-type implementation. For given pressure, computational cost increases since an iterative method is needed. This concept was tested for representative substances and mixtures, ranging from light gases to molecules with up to 10 carbons. The proposed model was able to correlate experimental data of saturation pressure and saturated liquid volume of pure substances with deviations of 1.16% and 1.59%, respectively. In mixture vapor-liquid equilibria predictions, the resulting model was superior to Soave-Redlich-Kwong with Mathias-Copeman α-function and the classic van der Waals mixing rule in almost all cases tested and similar to PSRK method, from low pressures to over 100 bar. Good predictions of liquid-liquid equilibrium were also observed, performing similarly to UNIFAC-LLE, with improved responses at high temperatures and pressures.

Rationalizing (Non-)equilibrium Bidding in Maximum-Value Auctions Without Beliefs About Others’ Behavior

We propose a novel approach to the modelling of second-price Maximum-Value auctions that assumes no belief about others’ behavior and no expected profit maximization. This individual decision-making model, naive Impulse Balance Equilibrium or nIBE, deals with bidders’ anticipated regrets from winning and from losing the auction. It exploits the stochastic properties of the auction format and rationalizes: (i) Nash equilibrium bidding, (ii) (non-)monotone overbidding and (iii) fully cursed equilibrium bidding. We fit this model to the available data and find that it explains median bids better than the Nash equilibrium prediction and, overall, as well as cursed-equilibrium. Furthermore, nIBE and the noise-free variant of cursed equilibrium typically outperform HQRE models with level-k or cursed equilibrium beliefs in terms of in- and out-of-sample quartile predictions.

Investigating the Failure to Best Respond in Experimental Games

We examine strategic sophistication using eight two-person 3×3 one-shot games. To facilitate strategic thinking, we design a ‘structured’ environment where subjects first assign subjective values to the payoff pairs and state their beliefs about their counterparts’ probable strategies, before selecting their own strategies in light of those deliberations. Our results show that a majority of strategy choices are inconsistent with the equilibrium prediction, and that only just over half of strategy choices constitute best responses to subjects’ stated beliefs. Allowing for other-regarding considerations increases best responding significantly, but the increase is rather small. We further compare patterns of strategies with those made in an ‘unstructured’ environment in which subjects are not specifically directed to think strategically. Our data suggest that structuring the pre-decision deliberation process does not affect strategic sophistication.

Spite vs. Risk: Explaining Overbidding

In this paper we use an experiment to compare a theory of risk aversion and a theory of spite as an explanation for overbidding in auctions. As a workhorse we use the second-price all-pay and the first-price winner-pay auction. Both risk and spite can be used to rationalize deviations from risk neutral equilibrium bids in auctions. We exploit that equilibrium predictions in the second-price all-pay auctions for spiteful preferences are different than those for risk averse preferences. Indeed, we find that spite is a more convincing explanation for bidding behavior for the second-price all-pay auction. Not only can spite rationalize observed bids, also our measure for spite is consistent with observed bids.

Online Labor Market Signaling with App-based Monitoring

App-based monitoring is widely used in online labor markets to reduce information asymmetry between firms (employers) and contractors. Such monitoring apps provide employers with detailed information on contractors’ work progress and effort level. A unique characteristic of app-based monitoring systems is that, due to online privacy regulations, contractors are informed of their presence and explicitly agree to their installation as a condition for participating in online labor markets. This study extends the existing theory on monitoring by analyzing how this awareness of monitoring could affect contractors’ strategic behavior. We explicitly recognize that app-based monitoring provides a new signaling opportunity to contractors as contractors are aware that employers can observe their behavior. We develop a new signaling model with the following features. 1) Online contractors can signal their types through wage quotes without the presence of app-based monitoring, and the app-based online monitoring can perfectly reveal the online contractor’s effort level. 2) The online contractor is aware of monitoring and can signal his ability through wage and/or effort level. 3) The employer infers the contractor’s type from both wage quotes and observed effort level and disseminates the information in the online labor market. 4) the employer maximizes its profit by deciding on whether to hire the contractor based on the proposed wage. We show that, by providing a new way of signaling to contractors, app-based monitoring can dramatically change contractors’ wage quotes and effort level in equilibrium. In some cases, the high ability contractor proposes zero wage and the first best effort level, i.e., the effort from the complete information case, to signal his ability. We further find that, under certain conditions, the market outcome could reach the first best. However, the monitoring might distort the labor supply by incentivizing an effort level higher than the case of complete information. Several implications for platform design are generated from our equilibrium predictions.

Comparison of Cubic-Plus-Association and Soave-Redlich-Kwong equations of state for prediction of vapor-liquid equilibrium of Fischer-Tropsch reaction mixture

Predictions of vapor liquid equilibrium for Fischer-Tropsch mixtures were compared using the classical Soave-Redlich-Kwong (SRK) and cubic-plus-association (CPA) equations of state. The performance of the two equations of state was evaluated based on comparison with results from eight sets of experimental runs in which different process conditions (pressure, reactants feed ratio, space velocity) were used. Flash calculations were used to determine the phase split at defined process conditions, whereas the phase equilibrium was defined utilizing the concept of equal fugacities in the vapor and the liquid phase for all components. A total of 75 components were considered in the reaction mixture: CO, H2, H2O, CO2, C1-C57 paraffins and C2-C15 olefins. All calculations were performed in MATLAB. The results showed that both equations of state had similar performance regarding the hydrocarbons, whereas CPA gave better results with inorganic components and SRK with prediction of the composition of the liquid phase. Computational time for CPA was substantially (100 times with the CPU used) higher than that for SRK. Overall, the use of CPA did not improve VLE prediction for FTS systems significantly enough to be recommended for use in FTS reactor models.

On competitive nonlinear pricing

We study a discriminatory limit-order book in which uninformed market makers compete in nonlinear tariffs to serve an informed insider. Our model allows for general nonparametric specifications of preferences and for arbitrary discrete distributions for the insider's private information. We show that adverse selection severely restricts possible equilibrium outcomes: in any pure-strategy equilibrium, tariffs must be linear and at most one type may trade, leading to an extreme form of market breakdown. As a result, such equilibria only exist under exceptional circumstances. The Bertrandlike logic underlying these results markedly differs from Cournot-like analyses of the limit-order book that postulate a continuum of types. We argue that these contrasting outcomes can be reconciled when one considers -equilibria of either the game with a large number of market makers or the game with a large number of insider types. Mixed-strategy equilibria, by contrast, lead to a new class of equilibrium predictions that calls for further analysis.

68THE ROLE OF DELETERIOUS ULTRA-RARE VARIANTS IN ADHD RISK

The reliable description of a liquid-liquid equilibrium system is irrefragably important, given that liquid-liquid equilibrium has several important applications in industry, such as the extraction of propionic acid, reactant of esterification reaction for thermoplastics production, the removal of congeners of bioethanol through the equilibrium displacement by adding water, and the proper calculation of fuel blends equilibrium composition. The use of accurate models is one of the main necessities to achieve good predictions of a system. In this work, the use of the UNIFAC(LLE) and COSMO-SAC (2002) excess Gibbs energy models in liquid-liquid equilibrium is analyzed. Liquid-liquid equilibrium predictions of 55 ternary aqueous systems are performed, the models are compared and their accuracy evaluated. The systems may contain water, alkanes, alkenes, aromatic compounds, acids, alcohols and esters. The COSMO-SAC model yielded the most reliable results, although some systems were better described by the UNIFAC-LLE model.

When Are Mixed Equilibria Relevant?

Mixed Nash equilibrium (NE) is a cornerstone of game theory, but its empirical relevance has always been questionable. We study in the laboratory two games whose unique NE is in completely mixed strategies; other treatments include the matching protocol (pairwise random vs population mean matching), whether time is discrete or continuous, and whether players can specify mixtures explicitly or only pure strategy realizations. NE mixes predict observed behavior better than maximin in all treatments, but uniform mixes are better predictors than any equilibrium mixture in many treatments. By contrast, in a control game with a unique NE in pure strategies, the best point prediction is NE. Mixed equilibrium predictions are more useful in population mean matching than in standard pairwise matching. Regret-based sign preserving dynamics capture regularities across all treatments.

Efficiency and Stability of Sampling Equilibrium in Public Good Games

Most models of social preferences and bounded rationality that are effective in explaining efficiency-increasing departures from equilibrium behavior cannot easily account for similar deviations when they are efficiency-reducing. We show that the notion of sampling equilibrium, subject to a suitable stability refinement, can account for behavior in both efficiency-enhancing and efficiency-reducing conditions. In particular, in public goods games with dominant strategy equilibria, stable sampling equilibrium involves the play of dominated strategies with positive probability both when such behavior increases aggregate payoffs (relative to the standard prediction) and when it reduces aggregate payoffs. While the dominant strategy equilibrium prediction changes abruptly from zero contribution to full contribution as a parameter crosses a threshold, the stable sampling equilibrium remains fully mixed throughout. This is consistent with the available experimental evidence.

Efficiency and stability of sampling equilibrium in public goods games

Most models of social preferences and bounded rationality that are effective in explaining efficiency‐increasing departures from equilibrium behavior cannot easily account for similar deviations when they are efficiency‐reducing. We show that the notion of sampling equilibrium, subject to a suitable stability refinement, can account for behavior in both efficiency‐enhancing and efficiency‐reducing conditions. In particular, in public goods games with dominant strategy equilibria, stable sampling equilibrium can involve the play of dominated strategies with positive probability both when such behavior increases aggregate payoffs (relative to the standard prediction) and when it reduces aggregate payoffs. The dominant strategy equilibrium prediction changes abruptly from zero contribution to full contribution as a parameter crosses a threshold, whereas the stable sampling equilibrium remains fully mixed throughout. This is consistent with the available experimental evidence.

Prediction of phase equilibrium of methane hydrate below 272.2 K based on different equations of state

By revealing that a key parameter D in Chen-Guo model is related to the temperature T, a new temperature-dependent parameter D(T) trained by the reported experimental data is proposed with Chen-Guo model to improve the prediction accuracy of phase equilibrium conditions of methane hydrate in the range of 145.75 K- 272.2 K. Four equations of state (EOS) such as Redlich-Kwong (RK), Soave- Redlich-Kwong (SRK), Peng-Robinson (PR) and Patel-Teja (PT) are chosen to calculate the gas fugacity respectively and the corresponding prediction accuracy is evaluated by the average absolute deviation percentage (AADP). The process of training D(T) based on the Chen-Guo model employed with SRK EOS is described in detail first, and the prediction results show that the corresponding prediction accuracy is greatly improved, whose AADP decreases from 10.83% to 3.31%. In order to verify that training D(T) is an effective way to improve the prediction accuracy, the same procedure is also used to the Chen-Guo models employed with RK, PR and PT EOS respectively, and the corresponding AADP decreases from ∼11% to ∼3%. In addition, the prediction accuracy according to the proposed D(T) is also evaluated by other temperatures different from the data used for training D(T) to verify its feasibility and effectiveness.

The impact of the number of sellers on quantal response equilibrium predictions in Bertrand oligopolies

AbstractThis paper studies how increasing the number of sellers in a Bertrand oligopoly with homogenous goods affects the equilibrium price level predicted by logistic quantal response equilibrium (LQRE) and power‐function QRE (PQRE). We show that increasing the number of sellers reduces the average posted price in a PQRE, but can increase the average posted price in an LQRE. Our results indicate that the comparative‐static predictions of QRE (McKelvey & Palfrey, 1995, Games Econ Behav, 10, 6–38) are not necessarily robust to changes of the quantal response function.

Vapor liquid equilibrium prediction of methanol–ionic liquid systems using UNIFAC model to select alternative working fluids of absorption cycle

AbstractThe purpose of this paper is to study the working fluids in absorption cycle containing methanol (CH3OH) as the refrigerant and the imidazolium ionic liquid (IL) as the absorbent. The UNIFAC model was implemented to correlate the published experimental vapor liquid equilibrium data of CH3OH–IL working fluids and 14 new group interaction parameters between CH3OH and ILs were obtained. Method reliability and applicability were evaluated by calculating the vapor pressures of five CH3OH–IL working fluids. The ILs contained 1‐methyl‐3‐methylimidazolium dimethylphosphate ([Dmim][DMP]), 1‐ethyl‐3‐methylimidazolium ethyl sulfate ([Emim][ES]), 1‐ethyl‐3‐methylimidazolium diethylphosphate ([Emim][DEP]), 1‐butyl‐3‐methylimidazolium dibutylphosphate ([Bmim][DBP]), and 1‐ethyl‐3‐ethylimidazolium diethylphosphate ([Eeim][DEP]). The average absolute relative deviations for the vapor pressures between the calculated results and the experimental data were 0.91%, 1.67%, 0.66%, 0.75%, and 2.1%, respectively. Then, the CH3OH–IL systems without experimental data were predicted. Comparisons of the vapor pressure and excess Gibbs function of the studied CH3OH–IL systems, CH3OH‐[Hmim][DEP] (1‐hexyl‐3‐methylimidazolium diethylphosphate) system, as an alternative working fluid, was found to have potential to improve the absorption cycle performance upon more research work.

Thermodynamic Analysis of n-Hexane-Ethanol Binary Mixtures Using the Kirkwood-Buff Theory.

A complete thermodynamic analysis of mixtures consisting of molecules with complex chemical constitution can be rather demanding. The Kirkwood-Buff theory of solutions allows the estimation of thermodynamic properties, which cannot be directly extracted from atomistic simulations, such as the Gibbs energy of mixing (Δmix G). In this work, we perform molecular dynamics simulations of n-hexane-ethanol binary mixtures in the liquid state under two temperature-pressure conditions and at various mole fractions. On the basis of the recently published methodology of Galata [ Fluid Phase Equilib. 2018 , 470 , 25 - 37 ] , we first calculate the Kirkwood-Buff integrals in the isothermal-isobaric ( NpT) ensemble, identifying how system size affects their estimation. We then extract the activity coefficients, excess Gibbs energy, excess enthalpy, and excess entropy for the n-hexane-ethanol binary mixtures we simulate. We employ two approaches for quantifying composition fluctuations: one based on counting molecular centers of mass and a second one based on counting molecular segments. Results from the two approaches are practically indistinguishable. We compare our results against predictions of vapor-liquid equilibria obtained in a previous simulation work using the same force field, as well as with experimental data, and find very good agreement. In addition, we develop a simple methodology to identify the hydrogen bonds between ethanol molecules and analyze their effects on mixing properties.

Belief-updating rule and sequential reciprocity

We revisit Dufwenberg and Kirchsteiger's (2004) model of reciprocity in sequential games. One important assumption they make is that players' perception of their opponents' kindness depends on their most updated beliefs at their decision nodes along the game. We argue that this is not always the case. We propose a modified belief-updating rule that categorizes beliefs by whether perceived kindness is calculated using their most updated forms. We use a simple example to demonstrate how equilibrium predictions differ for the new rule compared to the original one.