Equilibrium Exchange Rate Research Articles

The Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Czech Koruna – the BEER Approach

The aim of this paper is to develop a model of the real equilibrium CZK/EUR exchange rate with all relevant explanatory variables. Emphasis will be placed on examining the longest possible time horizon, with a period of real convergence, but also economic stagnation. The model is based on the theoretical BEER approach using a cointegration or error correction model that distinguishes between short-term and long-term relationships. The results show that the Czech koruna strengthens when the productivity differential, terms of trade differential or gross fixed capital formation increase, while the koruna weakens when the VIX index representing global risk aversion increases. For the real interest rate differential, the hypothesis that the koruna strengthens in the short run during the improvement but weakens in the long run probably due to the country's risk premium, was confirmed. Moreover, it turned out that the start of the European Central Bank's quantitative easing led to strengthening of the Czech koruna, while the start of the CNB's foreign exchange interventions in 2013 led to weakening of the Czech koruna.

The determination of the exchange rate: A new-developmental approach

This paper discusses the long-term determination of the exchange rate, given that it may remain depreciated or overvalued for some time. It defines the equilibrium exchange rate and the competitive exchange rate; the latter makes investment projects competitive internationally. Instead of starting from the PPP theory, it starts from the concept of the value of foreign money or the exchange rate around which the price, the exchange rate, revolves according to the supply and demand of foreign money. This, in turn, is influenced by three factors: the terms of trade, the current-account balance as a determinant of the net capital flows or inflows, and the interest rate differential. This paper criticizes the “fundamental equilibrium” concept and develops two econometric tests. The first checks whether the four determinant variables used in the model are relevant. The second verifies whether this model is a good predictor of the exchange rate throughout time.

Economic growth and deviations from the equilibrium exchange rate: a panel ARDL and panel NARDL approach

Economic growth and deviations from the equilibrium exchange rate: a panel ARDL and panel NARDL approach

Beyond symmetry: investigating the asymmetric impact of exchange rate misalignment on economic growth dynamics in Bangladesh

ABSTRACT This study examines the influences of asymmetry in exchange rate misalignment on economic growth of Bangladesh using utilizing time series data over the period from 1980 to 2020. The outcomes of the study symmetrically show that exchange rate misalignment has a significant impact on economic growth. In contrast, the adoption of NARDL technique gives substantial evidence for asymmetric effects, revealing that undervaluation supports economic growth while overvaluation hampers it. This analysis supports implementing a market-based equilibrium exchange rate system. It informs the regulators, policy makers, and market specialists that the customized exchange rate policies support sustained long-term economic growth.

CHEER and markets’ integration: evidence from selected East Asian economies

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate markets’ integration using the capital enhanced equilibrium exchange rate (CHEER) model for seven, highly competitive, East Asian countries.Design/methodology/approachThe sample consists of monthly observations, whereas unit root and cointegration techniques with structural shifts have been used.FindingsThe evidence shows that the weak form of the CHEER approach holds for Malaysia and Thailand. For China, Japan, Korea, Singapore and Taipei, only the uncovered interest parity condition is validated, implying capital markets integration. In contrast, for these five countries, the results indicate absence of goods’ markets integration. This outcome can be attributed to the impact of quite high non-tariff barriers and the Balassa–Samuelson effect.Originality/valueTo the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study that investigate markets’ integration in several East Asian economies, using the CHEER approach and more accurate price indices.

Exchange Policy and Misalignments in Morocco: A Quantitative Analysis

The research examines the equilibrium exchange rate and misalignment quantifications for the case of Morocco over the period 1990-2022. Based on an econometric model developed by Edwards in 1994, fundamental variables such as productivity, foreign direct investment (FDI), inflation and the real interest rate (RIR) are analysed to estimate the equilibrium value of the real exchange rate (REER) of the Moroccan dirham. The results show a cointegration between the REER and the fundamental variables, indicating the existence of a long-term relationship. The analysis of misalignments reveals periods of overvaluation and undervaluation of the Moroccan dirham, influenced by economic factors and monetary policies. This study has important implications for economic and monetary policy in Morocco, particularly with regard to export competitiveness and macroeconomic stability.

Exchange rates and fundamentals: Forecasting with long maturity forward rates

We show that in a popular model of exchange rate determination, the unobserved expected future exchange rate can be substituted with the observed forward exchange rate. This allows the derivation of a new error-correction forecasting model, which approximates the gap between the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate and the actual exchange rate with the long-maturity forward exchange rate. Our out-of-sample forecasting results for major currencies are unprecedented. The forecasting model is simple, easy to replicate, and the data we use are available in real time and not subject to revisions.

Oxygen exchange kinetics on La0.6Sr0.4FeO3−δ

Equilibrium properties and kinetic properties of strontium-doped lanthanum ferrite La0.6Sr0.4FeO3−δ were studied by an original approach involving two methods: oxygen partial pressure relaxation (with determination of equilibrium exchange rate R0 and a chemical diffusion coefficient in oxide: Dchem) and a quasi-equilibrium oxygen release [with construction of equilibrium isothermal diagram “lg pO2 vs. (3 − δ) vs. T”]. Activation energies determined for R0 and Dchem were 120 ± 20 and 30 ± 2 kJ/mol, respectively. It was shown that the linear free-energy relationship—between activation energy of the reaction rate constant and standard Gibbs energy of the reaction—is of the Brønsted–Evans–Polanyi type.

Does exchange rate misalignments lead changes in macroeconomic fundamentals?

This article aimed at verifying the reliability of equilibrium exchange rate (EER) concepts by exploring if exchange rate misalignments are leading to changes in macroeconomic fundamentals. The authors focused on G10 currencies and the three most popular EER models which the IMF regularly uses within the External Balance Assessment: Purchasing Power Parity, Behavioural EER and Fundamental EER. In methodological terms, the study applied the cross-sectional predictability approach developed by Sarno and Schmeling (2014), which ranks countries on the basis of the scale of EER misalignment to check if this ranking helps to predict key macro variables. The results indicate that EER misalignment contains cross-sectional predictive power and allows forecasting real effective exchange rates, short-term interest rates and current account balance differences across countries.

Perhitungan Sederhana Nilai Tukar Riil Rupiah dan Keseimbangannya

For the public and private sectors, especially those dealing with the international world, monitoring exchange rate movements is very important. However, in the current conditions of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA), exchange rate projections become very challenging. Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) is a model used to estimate an exchange rate that is considered balanced based on fundamental factors. In connection with this, the author intends to inform you about BEER and its benefits. Therefore, this paper aims to estimate the balance of the real exchange rate (RER), so that exchange rate movements outside of equilibrium (misalignment) can be identified. The method used in this paper is the Error Correction Model (ECM). The author uses quarterly data with the aim of getting a long data series and more accurate estimation results. Meanwhile, the explanatory variables consist of productivity, interest rate differential, foreign reserves, terms of trade, and risk premium. From the estimation results, it is known that changes in productivity, interest rate differential and foreign exchange reserves have a significant positive effect on RER movements. The risk premium has a significant negative effect, while the terms of trade are not significant. It is hoped that the results of this simple analysis will provide additional insight for policy makers and economic practitioners in understanding the dynamics of the real rupiah exchange rate and efforts to maintain its stability. It is also hoped that this article will provide a strong basis for considering more effective policies in managing the rupiah exchange rate.
 Keywords: exchange rate, equilibrium, fundamental factor, flexibility

Overview of the foreign exchange market of Ukraine in the conditions of martial law

The paper examines the peculiarities of the functioning of the currency market of Ukraine in the conditions of martial law and takes into account the aspect of economic and political components. The data of the study of the currency market of Ukraine during the war period are presented and their content is analyzed. The causes and factors influencing the formation and activity of the foreign exchange market are identified, and proposals are given for carrying out stabilization measures and minimizing currency risks in conditions of stress and uncertainty caused by the war. The main elements of the NBU's regulatory easing policy on the currency market of Ukraine in wartime conditions are outlined. One of the first steps taken by the National Bank of Ukraine in times of macroeconomic and military-political instability were the measures of strict currency regulation aimed at minimizing currency risks. In order to maintain financial stability, the NBU had to introduce strict currency restrictions and fix the exchange rate of the hryvnia to the US dollar. Such administrative intervention helped to balance the foreign exchange market in conditions where it would have been impossible to do so by market methods. The temporary fixation of the exchange rate, strict restrictions on currency transactions, restrictions on withdrawals from currency accounts and other measures became a reliable basis for stabilizing both the currency market and the financial system of Ukraine. Of course, administrative restrictions smooth out temporary distortions in the foreign exchange market, but over time they can lead to the accumulation of imbalances, since the market mechanism of balancing the demand and supply of currency in search of exchange rate equilibrium ceases to operate, which sooner or later can lead to or to sudden major crises, or to endless stagnation. Therefore, long-term regulation of the foreign exchange market by strict administrative measures can have negative consequences. This prompted the NBU, in accordance with the new strategy of gradually abandoning the fixed exchange rate of the hryvnia, to switch to the strategy of easing currency restrictions and returning to flexible exchange rate formation and targeting. This strategy is one of the structural beacons of the memorandum with the IMF, which will determine the sequence of steps to liberalize currency restrictions and return to a more flexible exchange rate regime. If such mitigations are not made even in the conditions of a brutal war, the consequences for the country's financial system and the functioning of business can be negative.

Measuring RMB equilibrium exchange rate and misalignment in China: Application of BEER and PEER approaches

The study attempts to measure RMB real effective exchange rate (REER) equilibrium and its associated degree of misalignments for China using the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) and permanent equilibrium exchange rate approaches. We use a range of economic fundamentals and employ yearly data covering the period 1980–2020, and apply the Johansen Cointegration test and other econometric methods for the study purpose. We find evidence of the existence of RMB real effective exchange rate equilibrium, and for most of the periods, the RMB REER is closer to its equilibrium level. We also find that the RMB REER misaligned with its equilibrium producing episodes of undervaluation and overvaluation, but the magnitude of the misalignments is small and the BEER approach produces a lower degree of misalignments. This suggests that the RMB undervaluation is moderate and not as exaggerated. We identify that the economic fundamentals used in this study are important determinants of RMB real effective exchange rate equilibrium. In line with the above, the study recommends that China may continue using its RMB exchange rate as its policy tool, but the policymakers should focus on the core fundamentals that derived the equilibrium exchange rate.

Risk-off shocks and spillovers in safe havens

This paper examines real and financial spillovers to safe haven financial flow destinations due to risk-off shocks in global financial markets. Using country-specific structural vector autoregression (VAR) models over the period 1990 to 2021, we show that dynamics for Japan appear to be different to those of Switzerland and the US in three main ways. First, in response to risk-off episodes, the yen real effective exchange rate (REER) appreciated significantly, with the effect persisting for around 25 days. Second, no significant effects on portfolio flows to Japan are found, in spite of the exchange rate effects, suggesting a rapid adjustment of financial markets to shifts in equilibrium exchange rates. Third, negative real spillovers from risk-off shocks appear to only apply to Japan with exchange rate appreciation exacerbating declines in GDP growth. Our findings have important implications for policymakers in safe haven destinations in managing domestic financial vulnerabilities associated with risk-off episodes.

Assessment of Fiji’s exchange rate

This paper empirically estimates Fiji’s bilateral equilibrium real exchange rate with two of its key trading partners, the US and Australia. Applying the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach, we estimate the equilibrium exchange rate by considering the productivity differential, real interest rate differential, net foreign assets, money supply, and terms of trade. Using monthly data from March 2011 to September 2022 and a system approach to cointegration, a strong relationship between the real exchange rate and its fundamentals is found, but importance of factors differed by trading partner. Our findings show that the Fijian Dollar has been undervalued against both US Dollar and Australian Dollar in recent years, but to varying degrees. Our analysis underlines the importance of assessing bilateral exchange rate misalignments in basket pegs when devising exchange rate policy.

The behavior of the real effective exchange rate of Ethiopia: does misalignment exist?

ABSTRACT This study examined the main drivers of real effective exchange rate (REER) misalignment for Ethiopia over the period 1970–2020. Based on the behavioural equilibrium exchange rate concept, the study used the dynamic OLS and Markov regime switching model (MSM). The cointegration results revealed that the REER appreciates for an increase in relative productivity, government spending and net remittances, but it depreciates for more trade openness and real investment in the long-run. The MSM results also suggested a distinct misalignment episodes of under- and overvaluation with significant variability for the Ethiopia’s Birr over the study period.

AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF THE IRAQI DINAR EXCHANGE RATE ON THE IMPORTED QUANTITIES OF RICE DURING THE PERIOD 1990 - 2020

This research was aimed to analyze the impact of the Iraqi dinar exchange rates for the period 1990-2020 on the imported quantities of rice crop, and to measure the price elasticity of demand for this crop. The (ADRL) model was applied to measure the impact of these prices in addition to the (international price).After conducting the statistical tests (Dickie Fuller test) to examine the stability of the time series of the studied variables included in the model, which stabilized after taking the first difference for them, the results of the analysis showed that international prices had a weak effect on the imported quantities of rice crop, and that these quantities increased at an annual growth rate 6% more than the increase in the annual growth rate of foreign prices amounting to 2%, because the rice crop is one of the basic food crops in the Iraqi consumer list and that it is included in the items of the ration card distributed to individuals and therefore it is imported by the state to meet the need regardless of the rise in its prices. The private sector also imports high-quality brands regardless of prices. As for the equilibrium exchange rate, which is usually higher than the nominal exchange rate adopted by importers in obtaining foreign currency from unofficial markets, the higher the exchange rate, the lower the quantity imported, and the fixation of the nominal exchange rate for many years had a positive impact on the quantities imported by The government, so it is necessary to set an exchange rate for the Iraqi dinar that takes into account the purchasing power towards importing basic food commodities on which the community depends entirely for nutrition.

Exchange rate misalignment: A systematic literature review based on citation and content analysis

AbstractExchange rate policy is regarded as a critical macroeconomic policy. Especially the misalignment of exchange rates is significantly impact on imported goods, particularly oil imports, which ultimately effect external and internal imbalances. This study conducts a systematic literature review on exchange rate misalignment, as well as an intriguing content analysis of the top 100 most cited articles. Further it identifies the most influential authors, papers and the journals in the field using citation analysis. The relevant articles are identified using the Scopus database. Three hundred and seventy‐two scholarly papers have been found relevant. The results of the content analysis show that the purchasing power parity is the most frequently used theoretical foundation, followed by the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate. Additionally, the analysis reveals that the authors primarily utilised time series data. The identification of essential and core journals is made through Bradford's Law. Schuh (American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 56, 1974, 1) is a pioneering study that discussed the misalignment of exchange rates in the US agriculture sector. Valérie Mignon is the most prolific author in terms of both productivity and impact. The paper authored by O'Connell (Journal of International Economics, 44, 1998, 1) titled ‘overvaluation of purchasing power parity’, is recognised as the most influential paper in terms of average citations per year.

Economic growth and deviations from the equilibrium exchange rate

This paper investigates the heterogeneous relationship between per capita economic growth rate and the deviations from the equilibrium exchange rate, as different types of countries might exhibit different dynamics, and macro variables cannot easily capture region-specific heterogeneity. Using annual data for 103 countries during the 1996–2016 period and applying the novel grouped fixed effects estimator developed by Bonhomme and Manresa (2015), the empirical analysis presented in this paper indicates that such relationship varies across groups of countries, endogenously identifying six groups with different time patterns and a different estimated impact (ranging from −0.0643 to −0.0014). Overall, our findings imply that deviations from the equilibrium exchange rate reduce the pace of real economic growth, regardless of income category, documenting that the effects are most pronounced for advanced economies, followed by low income developing countries and, finally, for emerging economies Our results also suggest that fixed and intermediate exchange rate regimes severely slow down economic growth.

Revisiting the real exchange rate misalignment‐economic growth nexus via the across‐sector misallocation channel

AbstractThis study assesses whether the component of across‐sector labor and capital misallocation induced by real effective exchange rate (REER) misalignments in turn significantly affects economic development. REER imbalances are derived from a Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate model; labor and capital misallocation is measured according to indicators in Ando and Nassar (IMF Working Papers, 2017, 17, 1) and Aoki (Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 2012, 26, pp. 473–494), on a unique cross‐country cross‐sector national account dataset of 54 countries and 12 sectors over 1980–2015. Both REER over‐ and undervaluations are found to lead to rising across‐sector labor (but not capital) misallocation and, uniquely via this channel, significantly hamper real growth.

Estimating the real exchange rate misalignment of the Algerian dinar during the period (1980-2019) : an empirical study (Arabic)

The aim of this study is to estimate the long-run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate (ERER) and to assess the degree of misalignment of the Algerian Dinar for the period (1980-2019) using ARDL approach. Considering that the equilibrium exchange rate of the Algerian dinar is determined by a set of fundamentals of the national economy, the study reached the following main results: In the long run, there are positive relationships between the real effective exchange rate and the differential productivity, real oil price and net capital flows. Whereas, there are inverse relationships between the dependent variable and each of the trade openness, General government final consumption expenditure (% of GDP). The second result is that the REER registered a number of deviations from its equilibrium level, that vary between overvaluation and undervaluation. The third result is that the exchange rate cannot be the only adjustment variable, given the extent of macroeconomic imbalances (internal and external). Parallel efforts at fiscal consolidation and deep structural reforms to diversify the economy and accelerate growth are also essential.