Equilibrium Asset Pricing Research Articles

Endogenous Habits and Equilibrium Asset Prices

We study a two-agent equilibrium model with two goods where we interpret the agents as countries. We analyze the effect of an endogenous habit specification where each country benchmarks its consumption decision against the decision of the other country. We show that endogenous habits can generate high equity premia and low interest rates. Our framework allows to study setups where agents cooperate or do not cooperate. The optimality conditions of the non-cooperative setting are similar to models that consider agents with exogenous habit levels. Although the size of the equity premia and the risk-free rate are of the same order of magnitude in both settings, the consumption allocations are more even in the cooperative situation.

Asset Pricing Implications Of The Mismatch Between Performance Window And Benchmark Duration

This paper studies the mismatch between asset managers' performance window and the time average of their benchmark dividend payouts, commonly referred to as duration. Our asset pricing equilibrium mechanism provides the first plausible theoretical foundation for the recent empirical findings showing that the risk premium, volatility, and Sharpe ratio on short-term dividend strips are higher than long-term dividend strips. These findings are at odds with the leading equilibrium asset pricing models, such as long-run risk, external habit formation, and rare disaster risk models. Our continuous-time setup admits precise closed-form expressions. We provide novel empirical evidence to support other model predictions.

Term Structure of Equity and Bond Yields over Business Cycles

Recent findings on the term structure of equity and bond yields pose serious challenges to existing equilibrium asset pricing models. This paper presents a new equilibrium model of subjective expectations to explain the joint historical dynamics of equity and bond yields (and their yield spreads). Equity/bond yields movements are mainly driven by subjective dividend/GDP growth expectations. Yields on short-term dividend claims are more volatile because short-term dividend growth expectation mean-reverts to its less volatile long-run counterpart. Procyclical slope of equity yields is due to the counter-cyclical slope of dividend growth expectations. The correlation between equity returns/yields and nominal bond returns/yields switched from positive to negative after the late 1990s, mainly owing to a stronger correlation between real GDP growth and real dividend growth expectations, and only partially due to procyclical inflation. Dividend strip returns are predictable and the strength of predictability decreases with maturity due to predictable dividend forecast errors and revisions. The model is also consistent with the data in generating persistent and volatile price-dividend ratios, and excess return volatility.

Equilibrium Asset Pricing with Leverage and Default

ABSTRACTWe develop a general equilibrium model linking the pricing of stocks and corporate bonds to endogenous movements in corporate leverage and aggregate volatility. The model features heterogeneous firms making optimal investment and financing decisions and connects fluctuations in macroeconomic quantities and asset prices to movements in the cross section of firms. Empirically plausible movements in leverage produce realistic asset return dynamics. Countercyclical leverage drives predictable variation in risk premia, and debt‐financed growth generates a high value premium. Endogenous default produces countercyclical aggregate volatility and credit spread movements that are propagated to the real economy through their effects on investment and output.

Equilibrium Asset Pricing in Directed Networks*

Abstract Directed links in cash flow networks affect the cross-section of risk premia through three channels. In a tractable consumption-based equilibrium asset pricing model, we obtain closed-form solutions that disentangle these channels for arbitrary directed networks. First, shocks that can propagate through the economy command a higher market price of risk. Second, shock-receiving assets earn an extra premium since their valuation ratios drop upon shocks in connected assets. Third, a hedge effect pushes risk premia down: when a shock propagates through the economy, an asset that is unconnected becomes relatively more attractive and its valuation ratio increases.

Responsible investing: The ESG-efficient frontier

We propose a theory in which each stock's environmental, social, and governance (ESG) score plays two roles: (1) providing information about firm fundamentals and (2) affecting investor preferences. The solution to the investor's portfolio problem is characterized by an ESG-efficient frontier, showing the highest attainable Sharpe ratio for each ESG level. The corresponding portfolios satisfy four-fund separation. Equilibrium asset prices are determined by an ESG-adjusted capital asset pricing model, showing when ESG raises or lowers the required return. Combining several large data sets, we compute the empirical ESG-efficient frontier and show the costs and benefits of responsible investing. Finally, we test our theory's predictions using proxies for E (carbon emissions), S, G, and overall ESG.

NOTE: An Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model for Stocks and Bonds under Growth and Inflation Risks

This technical note details an equilibrium asset pricing model for stocks and bonds under economic growth and inflation uncertainties using the Epstein and Zin preferences. Specifically, the results show that both equity and bond risk premiums are priced by growth and inflation uncertainties. This note provides a theoretical justification on the common industry choice of considering growth and inflation as the underlying drivers for assets' returns.

Asset prices in segmented and integrated markets

This paper evaluates the effect of market integration on prices and welfare, in a model where two Lucas trees grow in separate regions with similar investors. We find equilibrium asset price dynamics and welfare both in segmentation, when each region holds its own asset and consumes its dividend, and in integration, when both regions trade both assets and consume both dividends. Integration always increases welfare. Asset prices may increase or decrease, depending on the time of integration, but decrease on average. Cross-asset correlation is zero or negative before integration, but significantly positive afterwards, explaining some effects commonly associated with financialisation.

A SUNSPOT-BASED THEORY OF UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY

This paper is about the effectiveness of qualitative easing, a form of unconventional monetary policy that changes the risk composition of the central bank balance sheet. We construct a general equilibrium model where agents have rational expectations, and there is a complete set of financial securities, but where some agents are unable to participate in financial markets. We show that a change in the risk composition of the central bank’s balance sheet affects equilibrium asset prices and economic activity. We prove that, in our model, a policy in which the central bank stabilizes non-fundamental fluctuations in the stock market is self-financing and leads to a Pareto efficient outcome.

Overselling winners and losers: How mutual fund managers' trading behavior affects asset prices

We link a seemingly biased trading behavior to equilibrium asset prices. U.S. equity mutual fund managers tend to sell both their big winners and big losers. This selling pressure pushes down current prices and leads to higher future returns; aggregating across funds, we find that securities for which investors have large unrealized gains and losses outperform in the subsequent month. Funds with larger turnover, shorter holding period, and higher expense ratios, are significantly more likely to manifest this trading pattern, and unrealized profits from such funds have stronger return predictability. This cross-sectional return predictability is difficult to reconcile with alternative explanations.

Asset pricing in a pure exchange economy with heterogeneous investors

In this paper, we provide a complete solution to the problem of equilibrium asset pricing in a pure exchange economy with two types of heterogeneous investors having higher/lower risk aversion. Using a perturbation method, we obtain analytical approximate formulas for the optimal consumption-sharing rule, which is numerically justified to be accurate for a large risk aversion and heterogeneity. We present analytical formulas for the equilibrium pricing function, Sharpe ratio, risk-free rate, stock price and optimal trading strategies. We then analyse the properties of the equilibrium and derive some testable hypotheses, which enhance our understanding on the economics of financial markets.

Learning, Equilibrium Trend, Cycle, and Spread in Bond Yields

Some key features in the historical dynamics of U.S. Treasury bond yields – a trend in long-term yields, business cycle movements in short-term yields, and a level shift in yield spreads – pose serious challenges to existing equilibrium asset pricing models. This paper presents a new equilibrium model to jointly explain these key features. The trend is generated by learning from the stable components in GDP growth and inflation, which share similar patterns to the neutral rate of interest (r Star) and trend inflation (pi Star) estimates in the literature. Cyclical movements in yields and spreads are mainly driven by learning from the transitory components in GDP growth and inflation. The less-frequent inverted yield curves observed after the 1990s are due to the recent secular stagnation and procyclical inflation expectation.

Debt Sustainability When R – G < 0: No Free Lunch After All

Interest rates on public debt have for several years now fallen short of GDP growth rates in much of the Western world. In his presidential address to the AEA Blanchard argued that this implies that there are no costs to high debt. In this paper we argue that the safe rate is not the right interest rate to use for that comparison. We develop a General Equilibrium Asset Pricing model and econometrically estimate the relevant characteristics of the stochastic processes driving the primary surplus in relation to the growth rate of aggregate consumption and derive the proper risk premium. The resulting interest rate exceeds the growth rate. We then calculate the discounted value of future primary surpluses using the same stochastic process for the primary surplus and compare that to the market value of the (Dutch) public sector debt. We test various explanations for the gap between these two and derive the adjustment necessary to eliminate it (the fiscal sustainability gap).

Dynamic Equity Slope

The term structure of equity and its cyclicality are key to understand the risks driving equilibrium asset prices. We propose a general equilibrium model that jointly explains four important features of the term structure of equity: (i) a negative unconditional term premium, (ii) countercyclical term premia, (iii) procyclical equity yields, and (iv) premia to value and growth claims respectively increasing and decreasing with the horizon. The economic mechanism hinges on the interaction between heteroskedastic long-run growth – which helps price long-term cash flows and leads to countercyclical risk premia – and homoskedastic short-term shocks in the presence of limited market participation – which produce sizeable risk premia to short-term cash flows. The slope dynamics hold irrespective of the sign of its unconditional average. We provide empirical support to our model assumptions and predictions.

The Risks of Safe Assets

How much safety and liquidity can the US government provide? Should it accommodate demand for these attributes because high convenience yields in Treasuries lower its borrowing cost? We evaluate a novel fiscal risk channel limiting the government's capacity to issue debt through the lens of a general equilibrium asset pricing model with a rich fiscal sector. Expanding safe asset supply lowers safety premia and improves liquidity in financial markets, but creates tax and consumption volatility, raising risk premia, credit spreads, and firms' cost of capital. Our model predicts that this risk channel leads to depressed growth prospects, rising Treasury yields, and elevated consumption risk, for which we find strong empirical evidence. We use our model to quantitatively evaluate current proposals on stimulus and stabilization packages and find that the risk channel is exacerbated in times of fiscal stress. Increasing safe asset supply can thus be risky, and have a significant fiscal cost.

Inside money, business cycle, and bank capital requirements

A search theoretical model is constructed to study bank capital requirements in a perspective of inside money. In the model bank liabilities, backed by bank assets, are useful for exchange, while bank capital is not. When the supply of bank liabilities is not sufficiently large for the trading demand, banks do not issue bank capital in competitive equilibrium. This equilibrium allocation can be sub-optimal when the bank assets are exposed to the aggregate risk. Specifically, a pecuniary externality is generated because banks do not internalize the impact of issuing inside money on the asset prices in general equilibrium. Imposing a capital requirement can improve welfare by raising the prices of bank assets in both states.

Responsible Investing: The ESG-Efficient Frontier

We propose a theory in which each stock’s environmental, social, and governance (ESG) score plays two roles: 1) providing information about firm fundamentals and 2) affecting investor preferences. The solution to the investor’s portfolio problem is characterized by an ESG-efficient frontier, showing the highest attainable Sharpe ratio for each ESG level. The corresponding portfolios satisfy four-fund separation. Equilibrium asset prices are determined by an ESG-adjusted capital asset pricing model, showing when ESG increases or lowers the required return. Combining several large data sets, we compute the empirical ESG-efficient frontier and show the costs and benefits of responsible investing. Finally, we test our theory’s predictions using commercial ESG measures, governance, sin stocks, and carbon emissions.

Asynchronous Algorithms for Computing Equilibrium Prices in a Capital Asset Pricing Model

In this paper, we extend the work of [Tong, J, J Hu and J Hu (2017). Computing equilibrium prices for a capital asset pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs and margin-requirement constraints. European Journal of Operational Research, 256(1), 24–34] and develop various asynchronous algorithms to calculate the equilibrium asset prices in a heterogeneous capital asset pricing model. These asynchronous algorithms are based on different asynchronous updating schemes such as delayed updating, cyclic updating, fixed-length updating and random updating. In addition to potential benefits of improving computational efficiency, these asynchronous updating schemes also reflect several scenarios in financial markets in which investors may receive asset pricing information with various degrees of delays and their preferences on how and when to rebalance their portfolios may also be different. The proofs for the convergence of these algorithms are given. Numerical experiments are also provided to compare these algorithms and they show that these asynchronous algorithms work quite well.

Microfounding the Fama-MacBeth Regression

In a new methodological approach to empirically test which factors determine equilibrium asset prices, Berk and Van Binsbergen (2016) find that the Capital Asset Pricing Model would better explain how capital flows into and out of mutual funds. This result is puzzling given that empirical asset pricing tests based on cross-sectional returns favor multifactor models `a la Fama and French (1993). In this paper, we focus on mutual funds managers’ investment decisions instead of mutual funds investors’ decisions. Using a structural model, we recover the factor risk premiums from observed fund managers’ investment decisions, for a set of well published asset pricing models. We find that Fama and French (1993) expanded by the momentum factor of Carhart (1997), and the liquidity factor of Pastor and Stambaugh (2003), can explain the largest fraction of funds’ investment decisions. Most notably, we also find that the macro-finance model a la Chen et al. (1986) is the one that best explains the observed mean-variance efficiency of the market portfolio. We reconcile this apparent paradox, by showing that factors that influence mutual fund managers’ asset allocation decisions (eg. value-size investing) may not survive at the aggregate level.

Portfolio selection with mental accounts: An equilibrium model with endogenous risk aversion

Abstract In Das et al. (2010), an agent divides his or her wealth among mental accounts that have different goals and optimal portfolios. While the moments of the distribution of asset returns are exogenous in their normative model, they are endogenous in our corresponding positive model. We obtain the following results. First, there are multiple equilibria that we parameterize by the implied risk aversion coefficient of the agent’s aggregate portfolio. Second, equilibrium asset prices and the composition of optimal portfolios within accounts depend on this coefficient. Third, altering the goal of any given account affects the composition of each portfolio.