Equilibrium Approach Research Articles

How do green energy investment, economic policy uncertainty, and natural resources affect greenhouse gas emissions? A Markov-switching equilibrium approach

Energy efficiency has enormous potential for boosting economic development while simultaneously reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Energy efficiency improvements are widely accepted as a necessary corollary of China's decarbonisation efforts. This study analysed key factors in green energy investment and its determinants, i.e. natural resources and uncertainty of economic policy on greenhouse gas emissions, from 1987 to 2019. This work conduct a thorough empirical analysis and used innovative econometric techniques, such as the Markov-switching equilibrium correction model for long-run estimation and the kernel-based regularised least squares machine-learning approach, to establish the direction of causality for the variables in this study. The results indicate that green energy investment is significantly correlated with greenhouse gas emissions and helps to support environmental quality. However, although natural resources and economic policy uncertainty support economic growth, they are harmful to environmental quality. This conclusion implies that the Chinese government should exploit green energy investment to strengthen environmental performance as its long-term strategy.

Strong Tough Poly Acrylic‐co‐acrylamide Hydrogels via a Synergistic Effect of Fiber and Metal‐Ligand Bonds as Flexible Strain Sensors

AbstractDeveloping conductive hydrogel‐incorporated strain sensors with high gauge factor (GF) and toughness for wearable applications is challenging. Herein, a facile strategy to fabricate strong, tough polyacrylamide‐co‐acrylic acid [P(AAm‐co‐AAc)] hydrogels via the synergy of fiber and metal‐ligand bonds is proposed. Through the secondary equilibrium approach, the pristine P(AAm‐co‐AAc) gel network is reconstructed with fiber and carboxyl–Zr4+ (Zirconium ion) coordination bonds intertwined over the entire gel matrix, generating a synergistic reinforcement in mechanical properties. The resultant hydrogels display a maximum tensile strength of 8.50 MPa and a fracture energy of 2.75 kJ m−2, which is 1–2 orders of magnitude greater than the original P(AAm‐co‐AAc) gels. It is also experimentally approved that by selecting different natural fibers, multivalent metal ions, and synthetic macromolecules containing carboxyl groups, the proposed approach is effective and can be generalized to fabricate strong, tough gels. Additionally, the electrical properties of obtained gel are evaluated by fabricating it into a stretchable strain sensor for object identification or human motion detection. The results reveal a high GF of 5.07 under a strain smaller 55%. These hydrogels are expected to enable numerous applications in soft robotics or wearable healthcare.

A limit equilibrium approach to the use of stability bunds in the design of HDPE-lined tailings storage facilities

In recent years the requirements for a barrier system between the waste body of tailings storage facilities (TSFs) and the natural ground (NG) has necessitated the use of HDPE-lined TSFs in South Africa and other countries. The addition of an HDPE liner creates an interface between, inter alia, the tailings and surrounding soils on the footprint of the TSF. It is known that low-strength materials beneath slopes can cause slope instability. One method which can theoretically mitigate this instability of a lined TSF is the addition of stability bunds along the footprint of the TSF. Altering the profile of the footprint to include slope changes which oppose the direction of the failure creates passive slices in a limit equilibrium analysis. The passive slices actively oppose the movement of active slices, resisting the mobilization of tailings, thus greater active slice forces are required to develop a failure surface running along the liner interface. Two scenarios are presented and compared. The first scenario retains the ground profile unaltered and the second scenario includes stability bunds along the ground profile. An in-depth assessment is made of the interslice forces and the interface shear stresses for each scenario. The theoretical background is discussed in greater detail to determine the mechanisms of reinforcement provided by the bunds.

CHEMOUT: CHEMical complexity in star-forming regions of the OUTer Galaxy

Context. The outer Galaxy is an environment with a lower metallicity than the regions surrounding the Sun and for this reason the formation and survival of molecules in star-forming regions located in the inner and outer Galaxy are expected to be different. Aims. To gain understanding of how chemistry changes throughout the Milky Way, it is crucial to observe the outer star-forming regions of the Galaxy in order to constrain models adapted for lower metallicity environments. Methods. The project ‘chemical complexity in star-forming regions of the outer Galaxy’ (CHEMOUT) is designed to address this problem by observing a sample of 35 star-forming cores at Galactocentric distances of up to ~23 kpc with the Institut de RadioAstronomie Millimétrique (IRAM) 30 m telescope in various 3 mm and 2 mm bands. In this work, we analyse observations of methanol (CH3OH), one of the simplest complex organic molecules and crucial for organic chemistry in star-forming regions, and of two chemically related species, HCO and formaldehyde (H2CO), towards 15 out of the 35 targets of the CHEMOUT sample. More specifically, we consider only the targets for which both HCO and H2CO were previously detected, which are precursors of CH3OH. Results. We detected CH3OH in all 15 targets. The emission is associated with an extended envelope, as the average angular size is ~47″ (i.e. ~2.3 pc at a representative heliocentric distance of 10 kpc). Using a local thermodynamic equilibrium approach, we derive CH3OH excitation temperatures in the range ~7–16 K and line widths ≤4 km s−1, which are consistent with emission from a cold and quiescent envelope. The CH3OH fractional abundances with respect to H2 range between ~0.6 × 10−9 and ~7.4 × 10−9. These values are comparable to those found in star-forming regions in the inner and local Galaxy. H2CO and CH3OH show well-correlated line velocities, line widths, and fractional abundances with respect to H2, indicating that their emission originates from similar gas. These correlations are not seen with HCO, suggesting that CH3OH is likely more chemically related to H2CO than to HCO. Conclusions. Our results have important implications for the organic and possibly pre-biotic chemistry occurring in the outermost star-forming regions of the Galaxy, and can help to set the boundaries of the Galactic habitable zone.

Can Multiple Equilibria Increase the Prevalence of Cooperation Within the MNC?

Although the indispensable feature of Social Exchange Theory (SET) is believed to induce cooperation, expatriate turnover in repatriation suggests several limitations of the theoretic concept. Taking a step advance, this paper introduces an equilibrium approach and exams how it impacts employee turnover intention (TI) on their reentry to the home Multinational Corporation (MNC). In this context, we develop an analysis by drawing on sample data 163 employees from over 31 MNCs who worked on company-sponsored international assignments for one or more years. The results show: ‘multiple equilibria’ through shared beliefs and preferences bring a positive association with social exchanges, thus, increasing the prevalence of cooperation within the MNC.

Distributionally robust equilibrious hybrid vehicle routing problem under twofold uncertainty

A novel nonlinear hybrid vehicle routing problem is examined, and its nonlinear component is linearised considering the transportation costs associated with electricity and traditional fuel-based driving. Due to the fact that the transportation cost and fuel consumption involve the twofold uncertainty of randomness and fuzziness, and only partial probability distribution information may be available. Therefore, these two parameters are considered as random fuzzy variables with ambiguous probability distributions. An ambiguous equilibrium risk value objective function and an ambiguous equilibrium chance constraint are formulated. Accordingly, a distributionally robust equilibrium approach is proposed, in which the ambiguity sets are used to characterize the ambiguous probability distributions of the random fuzzy variables. Specifically, this paper first applies the central limit theorem to construct the ambiguity sets. Subsequently, the inner ambiguous probability constraint and the outer credibility constraint are derived into their equivalent counterparts, respectively. In this manner, the proposed model is successfully converted into a mixed integer second-order cone programming model, where the conventional branch-and-cut algorithm is adopted to obtain the optimal routing. Finally, the performance of the proposed model and its price of distributional robustness are verified in the numerical experiments. Overall, the main achievements of this paper are summarized as (1) the proposal of a distributionally robust equilibrium optimization model for a nonlinear hybrid vehicle routing problem, (2) the definitions of an ambiguous equilibrium risk value objective function and an ambiguous equilibrium chance constraint under twofold uncertainty, and (3) the derivation of an equivalent second-order cone programming model for computationally solvable.

Numerical investigation of flashing of propane (R-290) in a helical capillary tube

The present study addresses the expansion of pressurized liquid R-290 through a diameter capillary tube and its subsequent motion through a metastable condition entailing a change of phase through flashing phenomenon. The expansion of R-290 through a helical capillary tube is numerically simulated using a finite volume-based mixture model. For the simulation of the flashing phenomena, a homogeneous equilibrium approach is used. The Zwart–Gerber–Belamri model is deployed to represent mass transfer during flashing. ANSYS Fluent 2021 R2 software has been used for the numerical simulations. A series of UDF (user defined functions) are developed to read the recorded database of R-290 and perform the cavitation modeling. Bilinear interpolation is performed for determining the fluid properties at the corresponding pressure and temperature. The developed numerical model has been validated against the available numerical and experimental results. For the simulations, tubes with lengths of and have been considered, and the impacts of increasing length on the flow characteristics at the outlet have been determined. In this investigation, the R-290 refrigerant expands from three different condenser pressures of 16, 14, and 12 bar. Evaporator pressure is adjusted from 2 bar to 8 bar to investigate its influence on flow characteristics. The fall in evaporator pressure brings about a flow transition from subsonic to supersonic. The effects of tube length, condenser, and evaporator pressures on mass transfer rate, evaporator entry temperature, mixture quality at the evaporator entrance, and available refrigeration effects have been analyzed.

Mass measurements towards doubly magic 78Ni: Hydrodynamics versus nuclear mass contribution in core-collapse supernovae

We report the first high-precision mass measurements of the neutron-rich nuclei 74,75Ni and the clearly identified ground state of 76Cu, along with a more precise mass-excess value of 78Cu, performed with the double Penning trap JYFLTRAP at the Ion Guide Isotope Separator On-Line (IGISOL) facility. These new results lead to a quantitative estimation of the quenching for the N=50 neutron shell gap. The impact of this shell quenching on core-collapse supernova dynamics is specifically tested using a dedicated statistical equilibrium approach that allows a variation of the mass model independent of the other microphysical inputs. We conclude that the impact of nuclear masses is strong when implemented using a fixed trajectory as in the previous studies, but the effect is substantially reduced when implemented self-consistently in the simulation.

Pension reform and unemployment outcomes

ABSTRACT This article discusses the interactions among pension reform, labor market and inter-generational distribution issues through an overlapping general equilibrium approach with imperfect labor markets. Workers with different ages are imperfectly substitutable and wages do not clear labor markets. Increasing contribution rates has a strong negative effect on welfare and unemployment, particularly, for the youth. Contrary to the popular wisdom, postponing the retirement age does not entail an increase in youth unemployment. The change in incentives induces a substitution of old-age workers by young workers who constitute the cheapest labor category. However, this scenario substantially increases the implicit tax for older workers as well as for the youngest. Finally, the middle-aged are those that benefit the most from welfare increasing reforms.

Comparison of Mechanical Modeling to Warpage Estimation of RDL-First Fan-Out Panel-Level Packaging

To meet the requirements of low cost, thin vehicles, and multiple functions, the fan-out panel-level packaging (FO-PLP) is introduced to be one of the next-generation packaging technologies. However, the warpage issue of FO-PLP remains a critical concern during temperature cycling manufacturing processes. The utilization of finite-element analysis (FEA) to estimate the warpage of FO-PLP and to address the major mechanism of warp-induced failure is therefore crucial. Given that an increase in the structural complexity of packaging follows the advancement in technological development, the effect of redistribution layer (RDL) on packaging warp considered in FEA becomes greatly difficult. The complicated RDL might cause computational bottlenecks. For this reason, several equivalent material approaches composed of composite theory and simulation-based material testing approach are proposed and compared with resolve the abovementioned problem. The gravity effect is considered in the present process-oriented FEA to acquire accurate warpage. To perform the foregoing FEA, identifying how to determine the equivalent reference temperature at each step of manufacturing process is the key. In this article, three methods, namely, zero deformation approach, force equilibrium approach, and modified Timoshenko bimaterial approach, are proposed. To validate these methods, a comparison of warpage between the experimental measurement and simulation is conducted. The analytic results demonstrate that the modified Timoshenko approach has the best ability to evaluate the warpage of RDL-first FO-PLP among them due to the feasible assumption for the actual mechanical behavior of warpage. With regard to the extraction of equivalent material, the results indicate that the simulation-based material testing approach is more suitable to obtain the equivalent RDL. The estimated warpage has only a 0.9% deviation between the simulation and experiment when the modified Timoshenko bimaterial approach combined with the simulation-based material testing approach is adopted. Consequently, the RDL-induced warpage in FO-PLP can be accurately estimated through the presented simulation methodology.

On the Economic Impacts of Transportation Innovations: A Comprehensive Application to Quantifying the Impacts of an Hyperloop Technology

The purpose of this paper is to quantify the economic impacts associated with an investment in transportation systems. Here, we apply the methodology to projected comprehensive economic impacts of an Hyperloop route. The methodology is a low-frequency economic growth model that includes cumulative gains in real GDP, cost savings and the greenhouse gas savings of the proposed Hyperloop technology. To calibrate the model, we consider a route spanning from Texas to Chicago and covering 1,575 miles across the proposed hyperloop system. The infrastructure investment is obtained from construction cost estimates presented in previous feasibility studies. Our contribution is to present a simple general equilibrium approach to quantifying transportation economic impacts. To our knowledge, our is the first quantitative assessment of the Hyperloop technology. We include an analysis of the public finance aspects of the route, thus adding an answer to the question regarding the national merits of such an investment project. Our findings suggest that for returns comparable to the interstate highway system, the project could be paid for out of the stream of future tax revenues. There are additional gains through lower fares and travel times. Lastly, the environmental gains, especially from reduced air travel, are quantitatively significant.

Issues in the theory of sovereign debt and post-covid workouts

With a number of emerging markets and particularly low-income countries experiencing debt distress after COVID, there is a lively policy debate. At the root of the debate is the fundamental question of what incentivizes a sovereign has to repay its debts; without answering this question, it is difficult to appraise policy options. The tension between developing a realistic model of sovereign debt and having an elegant self-contained general equilibrium macroeconomic model are familiar from corporate finance. The general equilibrium approach has important philosophical implications, but the more targeted corporate-finance-like approach is needed for most practical problems that policymakers face.

FAUST VI. VLA1623−2417 B: a new laboratory for astrochemistry around protostars on 50 au scale

ABSTRACT The ALMA (Atacama Large Millimeter Array) interferometer, with its unprecedented combination of high sensitivity and high angular resolution, allows for (sub-)mm wavelength mapping of protostellar systems at Solar system scales. Astrochemistry has benefitted from imaging interstellar complex organic molecules in these jet–disc systems. Here, we report the first detection of methanol (CH3OH) and methyl formate (HCOOCH3) emission towards the triple protostellar system VLA1623−2417 A1+A2+B, obtained in the context of the ALMA Large Programme FAUST (Fifty AU STudy of the chemistry in the disc/envelope system of solar-like protostars). Compact methanol emission is detected in lines from Eu = 45 K up to 61 K and 537 K towards components A1 and B, respectively. Large velocity gradient analysis of the CH3OH lines towards VLA1623−2417 B indicates a size of 0.11–0.34 arcsec (14–45 au), a column density $N_{\rm CH_3OH}$ = 1016–1017 cm−2, kinetic temperature ≥ 170 K, and volume density ≥ 108 cm−3. A local thermodynamic equilibrium approach is used for VLA1623−2417 A1, given the limited Eu range, and yields Trot ≤ 135 K. The methanol emission around both VLA1623−2417 A1 and B shows velocity gradients along the main axis of each disc. Although the axial geometry of the two discs is similar, the observed velocity gradients are reversed. The CH3OH spectra from B show two broad (4–5 km s−1) peaks, which are red- and blueshifted by ∼ 6–7 km s−1 from the systemic velocity. Assuming a chemically enriched ring within the accretion disc, close to the centrifugal barrier, its radius is calculated to be 33 au. The methanol spectra towards A1 are somewhat narrower (∼ 4 km s−1), implying a radius of 12–24 au.

Modeling the Organic Carbon Oxidation and Redox Sequence Under the Partial‐Equilibrium Approach: A Discussion by Means of a Semi‐Analytical Solution

AbstractIn this work, we have developed a semi‐analytical solution for organic carbon oxidation coupled to the reduction‐oxidation sequence assuming the Partial Equilibrium Approach (PEA) and using the decoupling procedure of De Simoni et al. (2005), https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004056. Our solution was applied to two very simple cases. The first assumes only advective transport and the second only diffusive transport. Comparison with a numerical solution showed the adequacy of our analytical solution to be implemented in several scenarios, for example, in organic carbon oxidation in the unsaturated zone or in highly heterogeneous advective domains. We found that for the diffusion case the PEA produced spurious reactions, such as oxidation of N2 by O2 when compared with an approach using full kinetics. These reactions do not occur in the advection case. An analysis with the semi‐analytical solution revealed that they are the result of a combination of diffusive fluxes and the fact that the PEA assumes the electron acceptors to react with each other in equilibrium. Our analytical solutions are capable to quantify this shortcoming, becoming a tool to validate numerical models using PEA to describe organic carbon oxidation.

Modelling and statistical analysis of plastic biomass mixture co-gasification

In this work, an Aspen Plus model was developed to study the plastic/biomass co-gasification thermodynamically. Tar inclusion and temperature restricted equilibrium approach were applied for model modification. Using different gasifying agents, it was found that steam co-gasification is superior to air and oxygen-gasified processes in terms of gas composition and lower heating value (LHV). The use of an oxygen/steam mixture enhances H2 production if the steam to fuel ratio (S/F) is kept low. The modelling results were integrated with Response Surface Methodology to study the impacts of temperature (T), steam to fuel ratio (S/F), and plastic to biomass ratio (P/B) and their interactions within the steam co-gasification process. It was found that T and S/F, and their interaction, are the most influential parameters. Increasing the T, S/F, and P/B was favourable for enhancing H2 production, gas yield (GY), and carbon conversion efficiency (CCE), while CO content and LHV can be negatively affected. Using ANOVA results, empirical correlations were derived for estimating the responses (H2, CO, CO2, CH4, LHV, GY, and CCE). The optimum condition obtained using the desirability function (DF) approach was T = 921 °C, S/F = 1.186, and P/B = 74.99, at which the overall desirability function was found to be DF = 0.9.

Thermodynamic equilibrium approach to predict the inorganic interactions of ash from biomass and their mixtures: A critical assessment

Process simulation approaches based on thermodynamics calculations can provide good capabilities to predict the ash behavior of biomasses and their mixtures. In the present work, a critical assessment of such simulations was performed in the field of biomass ashes, and experimentally checked to be at equilibrium. Two commercial thermodynamic databases, FToxid and GTOX, were used together with the FactSage Gibbs energy minimization software. For the first time in literature, a comparison was performed between the calculated phase equilibria using the recent market versions of the two databases. The predicted results were then compared to those measured on various ash samples of straws and barks along with their ash mixtures, highlighting the lingering need for improvements for the recent versions of these commercial databases.The phase diagram approach showed excellent capabilities in predicting the physical state of the ash (solid, liquid, or solid-liquid mixture) using both databases. Global simulations using the FToxid database showed better prediction capabilities for single biomass ash than those using the GTOX database. Unfortunately, predictions using the former were significantly limited in the case of ash mixture samples, whereas using the latter were a total failure. Nevertheless, both databases showed correct volatilization prediction capabilities but failed to forecast the solidus and liquidus characteristic temperatures. Further work is still needed to enhance the prediction capabilities of this tool.

Ancient restorations: computer-based structural approach for the identification and reinterpretation of the Medracen’s constructive sequence

This paper addresses the importance of a structural approach for identifying and interpreting building chronology, as well as for the establishment of historical stratigraphy. Through structural analyses, carried out on the oldest extant royal mausoleum in North Africa, the Medracen (4th-3rd century BC), located in eastern Algeria, it has been possible to identify building sequences and structural characteristics; a reinterpretation of its constructive sequence within a specific historical context was also suggested. A static linear Finite Element Method (FEM) analysis was performed on a simplified 3D model conceived with solid elements to assess the structural behaviour of the structure under the effect of its self-weight and to identify, consequently, its construction sequence. The equilibrium approach was effective in identifying the structure’s geometry. Results show that Medracen’s ancient restoration was a strengthening intervention strategy and had a symbolic aim related to the function of the funerary building. Restoration works, consisting of repairing specific parts of the building and adding an external cladding, as a whole architectural entity, contributed to reducing the effect of tensile stress, therefore, stabilizing the inner core. Besides, this same action was a means for the Numidian elite to transform an ancient monumental burial (sepulchrum) into a monument (monumentum) with cultural significance likely to convey socio-political messages relating to power and sovereignty. Therefore, we can speak of an “evolutionary restoration” that reflects the ambitions of the Numidian elite to become part of the Mediterranean orbit.

A semi-analytical framework for non-linear dynamic response of multi-phase laminated composite plate under the transverse patch and in-plane pulse localized loadings

The non-linear dynamic response of a randomly distributed carbon nanotube fiber-reinforced laminated composite (CNTFRLC) plate subjected to various in-plane pulse localized loadings and transverse patch loading is presented semi-analytically. Implementing higher-order shear deformation theory (HSDT) along with von-Kármán non-linearity, the non-linear kinematics of the CNTFRLC plate are modeled. The nonuniform pre-buckling stresses ( and ) were developed implementing Airy’s stress equilibrium approach, and subsequently utilized while deriving the non-linear partial differential equations (PDEs) of the plate through Hamilton’s principle and solved via. Galerkin’s method. Finally, the non-linear dynamic responses of the CNTFRLC plate are traced using Newmark’s method.

SOLIS

Context.Deuteration is a precious tool for investigating the origin and formation routes of interstellar complex organic molecules in the different stages of the star formation process. Methyl cyanide (CH3CN) is one of the most abundant interstellar complex organic molecules (iCOMs); it is of particular interest because it is among the very few iCOMs detected not only around protostars but also in protoplanetary disks. However, its formation pathways are not well known and only a few measurements of its deuterated isotopologue (CH2DCN) have been made to date.Aims.We studied the line emission from CH3CN and its deuterated isotopologue CH2DCN towards the prototypical Class I object SVS13-A, where the deuteration of a large number of species has already been reported. Our goal is to measure the CH3CN deuteration in a Class I protostar, for the first time, in order to constrain the CH3CN formation pathways and the chemical evolution from the early prestellar core and Class 0 to the evolved Class I stages.Methods.We imaged CH2DCN towards SVS13-A using the IRAM NOEMA interferometer at 3mm in the context of the Large Program SOLIS (with a spatial resolution of 1″.8 × 1″.2). The NOEMA images were complemented by the CH3CN and CH2DCN spectra collected by the IRAM-30m Large Program ASAI, which provided an unbiased spectral survey at 3 mm, 2 mm, and 1.3 mm. The observed line emission was analysed using local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) and non-LTE large velocity gradient (LVG) approaches.Results.The NOEMA/SOLIS images of CH2DCN show that this species emits in an unresolved area centred towards the SVS13-A continuum emission peak, suggesting that methyl cyanide and its isotopologues are associated with the hot corino of SVS13-A, previously imaged via other iCOMs. In addition, we detected 41 and 11 ASAI transitions of CH3CN and CH2DCN, respectively, which cover upper level energies (Eup) from 13 to 442 K and from 18 K to 200 K. The non-LTE LVG analysis of the CH3CN lines points to a kinetic temperature of (140 ± 20) K, a gas density nH2≥ 107 cm−3, and an emitting size of ~0″.3, in agreement with the hypothesis that CH3CN lines are emitted in the SVS13-A hot corino. The derived [CH2DCN]/[CH3CN] ratio is ~9%. This value is consistent with those measured towards prestellar cores and a factor 2–3 higher than those measured in Class 0 protostars.Conclusions.Contrarily to what expected for other molecular species, the CH3CN deuteration does not show a decrease in SVS13-A with respect to measurements in younger prestellar cores and Class 0 protostars. Finally, we discuss why our new results suggest that CH3CN was likely synthesised via gas-phase reactions and frozen onto the dust grain mantles during the cold prestellar phase.

Attainment of universal health coverage in the occupied Palestinian territory assessed by a general equilibrium approach: is informality an irreversible hurdle for universality?

BackgroundAchieving universal health coverage (UHC) has recently received attention in response to calls from international organisations to expand health coverage to hard-to-reach segments of the population (eg, informal workers, and unemployed and poor people). Despite the strong commitment to achieving UHC, its implementation continues to spark vigorous debate among policy makers, scholars, and the international health community. Much of the recent debate has focused on the macro-fiscal challenges that many developing countries face in implementing and sustaining UHC-oriented reforms, and there has also been debate in relation to challenges of the micro-behavioural sphere (at the level of the individual). Some of these challenges pertain to the structure of the labour market in developing countries, which is characterised by the large size of non-contributory segments of the population, mainly informal workers and unemployed individuals. This raises the important policy questions of the feasibility of expanding health coverage to the informal sector and the unemployed on a contributory basis. MethodsWe assessed the feasibility of UHC using a dynamic general equilibrium approach while accounting for heterogeneity across households in terms of their employment and socioeconomic status. The model was calibrated using the Palestinian Expenditures and Consumption Survey (PECS, 2011), and the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM, 2011). We assessed alternative health insurance designs proposed to target the informal workers. Fiscal sustainability of the reforms was examined using the debt-to-GDP ratio and the microeconomic impact was assessed using the concept of consumption equivalent variation (CEV), defined as the amount of additional consumption a household would give up to move from the pre-insurance to the post-insurance level of welfare. A positive CEV value indicates that individuals are willing to pay for the health insurance. The higher the CEV value, the higher the gains of health insurance. FindingsA simultaneous expansion of UHC coverage of the population and health-care costs would enhance welfare for all households. However, such an expansion would reduce government expenditure that is allocated to other sectors; for example, it was estimated that the reduction would have been approximately 10% in 2020. To finance this UHC-driven debt, we examined the impact of a tax-financed UHC-oriented reform and a low-premium, low-coverage government-sponsored health insurance that targets informal workers. Although both policies would generate additional revenues to serve the UHC debt, government-sponsored health insurance targeting informal workers seems to be more feasible in terms of its impact on household welfare. That is, the informal workers would be better off under the government-sponsored health insurance scheme. InterpretationIn the absence of precise information on the ability to pay of informal workers, which in some cases might be comparable to that of formal workers, it is reasonable for the government to charge better-off informal workers rather than naively exempting them. The findings corroborate previous evidence suggesting that informal workers are willing to join health insurance schemes that charge them lower premiums for a slightly less generous benefit package than the health insurance schemes of formal workers. This health insurance might be deemed equitable in terms of the degree of financial protection that informal workers can obtain compared with the scenario in which they are left to bear high out-of-pocket health-care costs. FundingThe A*MIDEX project (number ANR-11-IDEX-0001-02).