Equatorial Westerlies Research Articles

The Double-Peaked El Niño and Its Physical Processes

AbstractRecently, El Niño diversity has been paid much attention because of its different global impacts. However, most studies have focused on a single warm peak in sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), either in the central Pacific or the eastern Pacific Ocean. Here, we demonstrate from observational analyses that several recent El Niño events show double warm peaks in SSTA—called “double-peaked (DP) El Niño”—that have only been observed since 2000. The DP El Niño has two warm centers, which grow concurrently but separately, in both the central and eastern Pacific. In general, the atmospheric and oceanic patterns of the DP El Niño are similar to those of the warm-pool (WP) El Niño from the development phase, such that the central Pacific peak is developed by the zonal advective feedback and reduced wind speed anomalies. However, a distinctive difference exists in the eastern Pacific where the DP El Niño has a second SSTA peak. In addition, the DP El Niño shows more distinctive anomalous precipitation along the Pacific intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) when compared with the WP El Niño. We demonstrate that the peculiar precipitation anomalies along the Pacific ITCZ play a critical role in enhancing the equatorial westerly wind stress anomalies, which help to develop the eastern SSTA peak by deepening the thermocline in the eastern Pacific.

Wind Spatial Structure Triggers ENSO’s Oceanic Warm Water Volume Changes

AbstractThis study demonstrates that the generalization that strong anomalous equatorial Pacific westerly (easterly) winds during El Niño (La Niña) events display strong adjusted warm water volume (WWV) discharges (recharges) is often incorrect. Using ocean model simulations, we categorize the oceanic adjusted responses to strong anomalous equatorial winds into two categories: (i) transitioning (consistent with the above generalization) and (ii) neutral adjusted responses (with negligible WWV recharge and discharge). During the 1980–2016 period only 47% of strong anomalous equatorial winds are followed by transitioning adjusted responses, while the remaining are followed by neutral adjusted responses. Moreover, 55% (only 30%) of the strongest winds lead to transitioning adjusted responses during the pre-2000 (post-2000) period in agreement with the previously reported post-2000 decline of WWV lead time to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The prominent neutral adjusted WWV response is shown to be largely excited by anomalous wind stress forcing with a weaker curl (on average consistent with a higher ratio of off-equatorial to equatorial wind events) and weaker Rossby wave projection than the transitioning adjusted response. We also identify a prominent ENSO phase asymmetry where strong anomalous equatorial westerly winds (i.e., El Niño events) are roughly 1.6 times more likely to strongly discharge WWV than strong anomalous equatorial easterly winds (i.e., La Niña events) are to strongly recharge WWV. This ENSO phase asymmetry may be added to the list of mechanisms proposed to explain why El Niño events have a stronger tendency to be followed by La Niña events than vice versa.

A Numerical Study on the Influences of Sumatra Topography and Synoptic Features on Tropical Cyclone Formation over the Indian Ocean

Abstract Spanning across the equator with a northwest–southeast orientation, the island of Sumatra can exert significant influences on low-level flow. Under northeasterly flow, in particular, lee vortices can form and some of them may subsequently develop into tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Indian Ocean (IO). Building upon the recent work of Fine et al., this study investigates the roles of the Sumatra topography and other common features on the formation of selected cases for analysis and numerical experiments. Four cases in northern IO were selected for analysis and two of them [Nisha (2008) and Ward 2009)] for simulation at a grid size of 4 km. Sensitivity tests without the Sumatra topography were also performed. Our results indicate that during the lee stage, most pre-TC vortices tend to be stronger with a clearer circulation when the topography is present. However, the island’s terrain is a helpful but not a deciding factor in TC formation. Specifically, the vortices in the no-terrain tests also reach TC status, but just at a later time. Some common ingredients contributing to a favorable environment for TC genesis are identified. They include northeasterly winds near northern Sumatra, westerly wind bursts along the equator, and migratory disturbances (TC remnants or Borneo vortices) to provide additional vorticity/moisture from the South China Sea. These factors also appear in most of the 22 vortices in northern IO during October–December in 2008 and 2009. For the sole case (Cleo) examined in southern IO, the deflection of equatorial westerlies into northwesterlies by Sumatra (on the windward side) is also helpful to TC formation.

Variability in the Mozambique Channel Trough and Impacts on Southeast African Rainfall

AbstractThe Mozambique Channel trough (MCT) is a cyclonic region prominent in austral summer in the central and southern Mozambique Channel. It first becomes evident in December with a peak in strength in February when the Mozambique Channel is warmest and the Mascarene high (MH) is located farthest southeast in the Indian Ocean basin. The strength and the timing of the mean MCT are linked to that of the cross-equatorial northeasterly monsoon in the tropical western Indian Ocean, which curves as northwesterlies toward northern Madagascar. The interannual variability in the MCT is associated with moist convection over the Mozambique Channel and is modulated by the location of the warm sea surface temperatures in the south Indian Ocean. Variability of the MCT shows a strong relationship with the equatorial westerlies north of Madagascar and the latitudinal extension of the MH. Summers with strong MCT activity are characterized by a prominent cyclonic circulation over the Mozambique Channel, extending to the midlatitudes. These are favorable for the development of tropical–extratropical cloud bands over the southwestern Indian Ocean and trigger an increase in rainfall over the ocean but a decrease over the southern African mainland. Most years with a weak MCT are associated with strong positive south Indian Ocean subtropical dipole events, during which the subcontinent tends to receive more rainfall whereas Madagascar and northern Mozambique are anomalously dry.

Interdecadal Modulation of AMO on the Winter North Pacific Oscillation-Following Winter ENSO Relationship

It is known that the wintertime North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) is an important extratropical forcing for the occurrence of an El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event in the subsequent winter via the “seasonal footprinting mechanism” (SFM). This study reveals that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) can notably modulate the relationship between the winter NPO and the following winter ENSO. During the negative AMO phase, the winter NPO has significant impacts on the following winter ENSO via the SFM. In contrast, the influence of the winter NPO on ENSO is not robust at all during the positive AMO phase. Winter NPO-generated westerly wind anomalies over the equatorial western Pacific during the following spring are much stronger during negative than positive AMO phases. It is suggested that the AMO impacts the winter NPO-induced equatorial westerly winds over the western Pacific via modulating the precipitation climatology over the tropical central Pacific and via modulating the connection of the winter NPO with spring sea surface temperature in the tropical North Atlantic.

Tropical Pacific Ocean Dynamical Response to Short-Term Sulfate Aerosol Forcing

Abstract The large-scale and long-term climate impacts of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols consist of Northern Hemisphere cooling and a southward shift of the tropical rain belt. On interannual time scales, however, the response to aerosols is localized with a sizable imprint on local ocean–atmosphere interaction. A large concentration of anthropogenic sulfates over Asia may impact ENSO by modifying processes and interactions that generate this coupled ocean–atmosphere variability. Here, we use climate model experiments with different degrees of ocean–atmosphere coupling to study the tropical Pacific response to an abrupt increase in anthropogenic sulfates. These include an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled to either a full-ocean GCM or a slab-ocean model, or simply forced by climatology of sea surface temperature. Comparing the responses helps differentiate between the fast atmospheric and slow ocean-mediated responses, and highlights the role of ocean–atmosphere coupling in the latter. We demonstrate the link between the Walker circulation and the equatorial Pacific upper-ocean dynamics in response to increased sulfate aerosols. The local surface cooling due to sulfate aerosols emitted over the Asian continent drives atmospheric subsidence over the equatorial west Pacific. The associated anomalous circulation imparts westerly momentum to the underlying Pacific Ocean, leading to an El Niño–like upper-ocean response and a transient warming of the east equatorial Pacific Ocean. The oceanic adjustment eventually contributes to its decay, giving rise to a damped oscillation of the tropical Pacific Ocean in response to abrupt anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcing.

Collapse of the General Circulation in Shortwave-absorbing Atmospheres: An Idealized Model Study

Abstract The response of the general circulation in a dry atmosphere to various atmospheric shortwave absorptivities is investigated in a three-dimensional general circulation model with gray radiation. Shortwave absorption in the atmosphere reduces the incoming radiation reaching the surface but warms the upper atmosphere, significantly shifting the habitable zone toward the star. The strong stratification under high shortwave absorptivity suppresses the Hadley cell in a manner that matches previous Hadley cell scalings. General circulation changes may be observable through cloud coverage and superrotation. The equatorial superrotation in the upper atmosphere strengthens with the shortwave opacity, as predicted based on the gradient wind of the radiative–convective equilibrium profile. There is a sudden drop of equatorial superrotation at very low shortwave opacity. This is because the Hadley cell in those cases are strong enough to fill the entire troposphere with zero momentum air from the surface. A diurnal cycle (westward motion of substellar point relative to the planet) leads to acceleration of the equatorial westerlies in general, through the enhancement of the equatorward eddy momentum transport, but the response is not completely monotonic, perhaps due to the resonance of tropical waves and the diurnal forcing.

Sea-surface temperature, productivity and hydrological changes in the Northern Indian Ocean (Maldives) during the interval ~575-175 ka (MIS 14 to 7)

The South Asian Monsoon (SAM) drives seasonal changes in the atmospheric and ocean circulation of the tropical Indian Ocean, affecting precipitation on land and oceanic primary productivity. This work examined sediments from the International Ocean Discover Program (IODP) Site U1467 (IODP Expedition 359) located in the Maldives Inner Sea (Northern Indian Ocean) at a water depth of 487 m. The Maldives Inner Sea is a perfect location to study past changes in tropical climate and ocean circulation related to monsoon dynamics in the Equatorial Indian Ocean. This study focuses on the ~575-175 ka interval, from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 14 to 7, an important period for human evolution and dispersal to Eurasia.We reconstructed sea-surface temperature (SST), based on alkenone unsaturation index (U37K'), hydrological changes, based on terrestrial input of n-alkanes, and past surface ocean productivity, based on total C37 alkenones concentration. The U37K' -SST record shows a difference of about 1.5 °C between glacial and interglacial periods, clearly showing all stages and substages from MIS 14 to 7, and revealing a connection between ice sheets extension and SST at the equatorial region. The n-alkanes concentration and average chain length index indicate vegetation changes at the Indian Peninsula with drier conditions generally associated with glacial periods. Precipitation increases abruptly at the end of terminations, lasting for a variable time interval in each interglacial period, except for MIS 13. However, other mechanisms superimposed to the glacial-interglacial forcing, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode, have been invoked to explain shorter-scale variability in precipitation over India. The total alkenone concentration record indicates that primary productivity at Site U1467 is strongly associated with orbital changes, probably related to the summer inter-tropical insolation gradient (SITIG, 23N-23S on June 21st). High primary productivity occurred during intervals of low SITIG, which resulted in strong inter-monsoon (April-May and October-November) Indian Ocean Equatorial Westerlies (IEW) and reduced precipitation in the equatorial region. This mechanism may also be related to the IOD, which affects the strength of the IEW.

A double ITCZ phenomenology of wind errors in the equatorial Atlantic in seasonal forecasts with ECMWF models

Abstract. Modern coupled general circulation models produce systematic biases in the tropical Atlantic that hamper the reliability of long-range predictions. This study focuses on a common springtime westerly wind bias in the equatorial Atlantic in seasonal hindcasts from two coupled models – ECMWF System 4 and EC-Earth v2.3 – and in hindcasts also based on System 4, but with prescribed sea-surface temperatures. The development of the equatorial westerly bias in early April is marked by a rapid transition from a wintertime easterly, cold tongue bias to a springtime westerly bias regime that displays a marked double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The transition is a seasonal feature of the model climatology (independent of initialisation date) and is associated with a seasonal increase in rainfall where a second branch of the ITCZ is produced south of the Equator. Excess off-equatorial convergence redirects the trade winds away from the Equator. Based on arguments of temporal coincidence, the results of our analysis contrast with those from previous work, and alleged causes hereto identified as the likely cause of the equatorial westerly bias in other models must be discarded. Quite in general, we find no evidence of remote influences on the development of the springtime equatorial bias in the Atlantic in the IFS-based models. Limited evidence however is presented that supports the hypothesis of an incorrect representation of the meridional equatorward flow in the marine boundary layer of the southern Atlantic as a contributing factor. Erroneous dynamical constraints on the flow upstream of the Equator may generate convergence and associated rainfall south of the Equator. This directs attention to the representation of the properties of the subtropical boundary layer as a potential source for the double ITCZ bias.

Coronal Plasma Characterization via Coordinated Infrared and Extreme Ultraviolet Observations of a Total Solar Eclipse

Abstract We present coordinated coronal observations of the 2017 August 21 total solar eclipse with the Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) and the Airborne Infrared Spectrometer (AIR-Spec). These instruments provide an unprecedented view of the solar corona in two disparate wavelength regimes, the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and the near- to mid-infrared (IR), opening new pathways for characterizing the complex coronal plasma environment. During totality, AIR-Spec sampled coronal IR spectra near the equatorial west limb, detecting strong sources of Mg viii, S xi, Si ix, and Si x in two passbands encompassing 1.4–4 μm. We apply an intensity-ratio diagnostic to a strong resonant Fe xii line pair arising from the coordinated EIS observations. This results in a high-resolution map of electron density throughout the shared EIS/AIR-Spec field of view. Electron density measurements allow us to produce a similar map of plasma temperature using emission measure (EM) loci analysis as applied to 27 EIS emission lines, providing temperatures of 106.12 ± 103.5 K along the limb and 106.19 ± 103.5 K at about 100″ outward. Applying EM loci analysis to AIR-Spec IR spectra coadded over two 31″ wide ranges centered at two locations, 30″ and 100″ from the limb, produces temperatures consistent with the EIS data, albeit suffering from moderate uncertainties. Regardless, we demonstrate that EUV spectral data are valuable constraints to coronal IR emission models, and will be powerful supplements for future IR solar observatories, particularly DKIST.

Impacts of Different Types of ENSO Events on Thermocline Variability in the Southern Tropical Indian Ocean

AbstractRemarkable interannual variability in the thermocline depth in the southern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) is analyzed using reanalysis data during 1980–2017. Previous studies have shown that the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a significant relationship with thermocline depth anomalies in this region. We find that both the eastern‐Pacific (EP) and central‐Pacific (CP) ENSO have important impacts on the STIO thermocline variation. The positive and negative phases of thermocline anomalies in the STIO are induced by asymmetric forcings from the two phases of ENSO. EP‐El Niño and CP‐La Niña events tend to induce larger thermocline depth anomalies in the STIO. Equatorial westerly and STIO anticyclonic winds during EP‐El Niño events can induce downwelling Rossby waves that extend far toward the western Indian Ocean, which dominates the westward propagation of thermocline anomalies, while upwelling Rossby waves during CP‐La Niña events cannot extend that far west.

The Early Development of the 2015/16 Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Disruption

Abstract An unprecedented disruption of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) started to develop from late 2015. The early development of this event is analyzed using the space–time spectra of eddies from reanalysis data. While the extratropical waves propagating horizontally into the tropics were assumed to be the main driver for the disruption, it was not clear why these waves dissipated near the jet core instead of near the jet edge as linear theory predicts. This study shows that the drastic deceleration of the equatorial jet was largely brought about by a single strong wave packet, and the local winds experienced by the wave packet served as a better indicator of the wave breaking latitude than the zonal mean winds. Surprisingly, tropical mixed Rossby–gravity waves also made an appreciable contribution to the deceleration of the equatorial westerly jet by the horizontal eddy momentum fluxes, especially before January 2016. The horizontal eddy momentum fluxes associated with the tropical waves arise from the deformation of the wave structure when background westerlies increase with height. These horizontal eddy momentum anomalies from the tropical waves are commonly observed in the reanalysis data but are typically much weaker than those in the 2015/16 winter. The possibility exists that exceptionally strong equatorially trapped waves precondition the flow to disruption by an extratropical disturbance.

On the Momentum Budget of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model

Abstract This study documents the contribution of equatorial waves and mesoscale gravity waves to the momentum budget of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in a 110-level version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model. The model has high vertical resolution, 500 m, above the boundary layer and through the lower and middle stratosphere, decreasing gradually to about 1.5 km near the stratopause. Parameterized mesoscale gravity waves and resolved equatorial waves contribute comparable easterly and westerly accelerations near the equator. Westerly acceleration by resolved waves is due mainly to Kelvin waves of zonal wavenumber in the range k = 1–15 and is broadly distributed about the equator. Easterly acceleration near the equator is due mainly to Rossby–gravity (RG) waves with zonal wavenumbers in the range k = 4–12. These RG waves appear to be generated in situ during both the easterly and westerly phases of the QBO, wherever the meridional curvature of the equatorial westerly jet is large enough to produce reversals of the zonal-mean barotropic vorticity gradient, suggesting that they are excited by the instability of the jet. The RG waves produce a characteristic pattern of Eliassen–Palm flux divergence that includes strong easterly acceleration close to the equator and westerly acceleration farther from the equator, suggesting that the role of the RG waves is to redistribute zonal-mean vorticity such as to neutralize the instability of the westerly jet. Insofar as unstable RG waves might be present in the real atmosphere, mixing due to these waves could have important implications for transport in the tropical stratosphere.

A Preliminarily Statistic and Synoptic Study about the Basic Currents over Southeastern Asia and the Initiation of Typhoons

The relation between the basic currents† of the low latitudes and the initiation of typhoons is investigated statistically and synoptically by means of recent aerological data. It is shown that about 80% of typhoons developed in the eastern part of the equatorial convergence zone between the equatorial westerlies and trade wind of West Pacific Ocean. The equatorial westerly is a large scale and quasi-steady phenomenon; therefore, it is probably reasonable to be called ' basic current” and typhoons are considered as vortices of smaller scale. There is a quite definite relationship between the time, position, frequency of the initiation of typhoons and the position, strength of the basic currents in the low latitudes. There is a quasi-periodical variation of the strength and position of the basic currents with a period longer than one month. This fact may be helpful for the extended forecast the initiation and development of typhoons.

The relationship between significant wave height and Indian Ocean Dipole in the equatorial North Indian Ocean

Based on reanalysis data, we find that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) plays an important role in the variability of wave climate in the equatorial Northern Indian Ocean (NIO). Significant wave height (SWH) in the equatorial NIO, especially over the waters southeast to Sri Lanka, exhibits strong interannual variations. SWH anomalies in the waters southeast to Sri Lanka correlate well with dipole mode index (DMI) during both summer and autumn. Negative SWH anomalies occur over the oceanic area southeast to Sri Lanka during positive IOD events and vary with different types of IOD. During positive prolonged (unseasonable) IOD, the SWH anomalies are the strongest in autumn (summer); while during positive normal IOD, the SWH anomalies are weak in both summer and autumn. Strong easterly wind anomalies over the southeast oceanic area of Sri Lanka during positive IOD events weaken the original equatorial westerly wind stress, which leads to the decrease in wind-sea waves. The longer wave period during positive IOD events further confirms less wind-sea waves. The SWH anomaly pattern during negative IOD events is nearly opposite to that during positive IOD events.

Respective roles of remote and local wind stress forcings in the development of warm SST errors in the South-Eastern Tropical Atlantic in a coupled high-resolution model

Processes involved in the development of the warm sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the Tropical South-Eastern Atlantic (SETA) in a high resolution (HR) version of the CNRM-CM model are evaluated based on full-field initialized seasonal hindcasts starting at 1 February of each year for 2000–2009. Whereas the initial SST growth is likely associated with local atmospheric forcing, its further development is due to remote oceanic processes. A mixed layer heat budget analysis in SETA indicates a spurious warm horizontal advection observed as far as south of 25°S that appears at the beginning of March. It is associated with an erroneous oceanic mean state at the equator resulting from the mean equatorial westerly wind bias. A sensitivity experiment with corrected wind stress over the equatorial region suggests that the remote forcing explains about 57% of the SETA SST bias in March–May. Comparison with a lower resolution (LR) version of the model reveals that in general similar processes are responsible for the SST bias in both models. A strong reduction of the bias in the HR model is observed only over the near-coastal Southern Benguela region due to a better representation of atmospheric and oceanic processes controlling the coastal upwelling. Overall, the results of the inter-comparison of the SETA SST bias evolution in different sensitivity experiments performed in this study can be interpreted in terms of the relative contributions of (erroneous) warm horizontal advection, associated with equatorial forcing, and cold horizontal advection, associated with local offshore Ekman transport.

Organized convection over southwest peninsular India during the pre-monsoon season

The paper addresses observational aspects of widespread rain associated with the organized convection that forms over the southwest peninsular India during the pre-monsoon season. The evolution of the cloud band over the equatorial region, its northward propagation, development of cross equatorial flow near the Somalia coast, and appearance of equatorial westerly wind resemble closely to that of the monsoon organized convection. Low-level convergence, cyclonic vorticity, and ascending motion are other major characteristics of the cloud bands associated with the pre-monsoon organized convection which exhibits similarity with that of monsoon. The ascending motion plays vital role on the formation of cloud band that produces widespread rainfall persisting for more than a week. The vertical shear of meridional winds is found to co-exist with precipitation over the Arabian Sea off the southwest peninsular India. The velocity potential values derived from the winds at 850 and 200 hPa levels confirm the rising motion on the basis of low-level convergence and upper level divergence. Also, shifting of ascending limb of the local Hadley circulation to the north of the equator is observed during the days of the presence of organized convection over the southwest peninsular region. Noticeable shift in the Walker circulation rising limb is also identified during the same time.

Response of the Tropical Indian Ocean to Greenhouse Gases and Aerosol Forcing in the GFDL CM3 Coupled Climate Model

ABSTRACTThe response of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) to greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols are investigated based on historical single-forcing and all-forcing simulations using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 3 (GFDL CM3). Results reveal a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD)-like pattern in GHG forcing but a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (nIOD)-like pattern in aerosol forcing. The GHG-induced pIOD-like pattern features less (more) sea surface temperature (SST) warming over the southeastern (western) TIO, accompanied by equatorial easterly anomalies, as well as a shallower thermocline off Sumatra. The aerosol-induced nIOD-like pattern displays the reverse features, characterized by less (more) SST cooling over the southeastern (western) TIO, anomalous equatorial westerlies, and a deeper thermocline off Sumatra. Although the aerosol-induced pattern appears to resemble a reversal of the GHG-induced pattern, there is a strong asymmetry in the SST changes over the southeastern TIO, where the cooling responding to aerosol forcing exceeds the warming in response to GHG forcing, and a negative SST residual is thus produced. A mixed-layer heat budget analysis suggests that the negative SST residual results mainly from asymmetric responses of shortwave radiation, zonal advection, and diffusion to GHGs and aerosols. For comparison, the formation processes for the negative SST skewness over the southeastern TIO between the internal pIOD and nIOD are also discussed.

Impact of Two Types of El Niño on Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific: Sensitivity to Location and Intensity of Pacific Warming

The present study investigates the impact of various central Pacific (CP) and eastern Pacific (EP) warming on tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) for the period 1948–2015 based on observational and reanalysis data. Four distinctly different forms of tropical Pacific warming are identified to examine different impacts of locations and intensity of tropical Pacific warming on the WNP TCs. It is shown that WNP TC activity related to ENSO shows stronger sensitivity to the intensity of CP SST warming. The locations of TC genesis in an extreme EP El Niño featuring concurrent strong CP and EP warming (CEPW) display a notable southeastward shift that is generally similar to the CP El Niño featuring CP warming alone (CPW). These influences are clearly different from the effects of moderate EP El Niño associated with EP warming alone (EPW). The above influences of Pacific warming on TCs possibly occur via atmospheric circulation variability. Anomalous convection associated with CP SST warming drives anomalous low-level westerlies away from the equator as a result of a Gill-type Rossby wave response, leading to an enhanced broad-zone, eastward-extending monsoon trough (MT). An anomalous Walker circulation in response to EP SST warming drives an increase in anomalous equatorial westerlies over the WNP, leading to a narrow-zone, slightly equatorward shift of the eastward-extending MT. These changes in the MT coincide with a shift in large-scale environments and synoptic-scale perturbations, which favor TC genesis and development. In addition, during weaker EP SST warming (WEPW) with similar intensity to CPW, local SST forcing exhibits primary control on WNP TCs and atmospheric circulation.

ARUS SELATAN JAWA

SOUTH JAVA CURRENT. Indian Ocean is influenced by the monsoon cycle. Monsoon cycle that occurs in the Indian Ocean influences the current patterns. Since a very strong westerlies occurs in The Tropical Convergence Zone (TCZ) at the equator, wyrtki jet is formed in the 40° - 80° W Indian Ocean on a transitional season. Its branchs are possibly formed when the wyrtki jet is in the equatorial west coast of Sumatra to the north and south along the western coast of Sumatra which eventually creates South Java Current (SJC). SJC flows southeastward during December–April and northwestward during June–October, when it is associated with coastal upwelling. SJC develop upwelling on a seasonal basis.