Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean Research Articles

Indian ocean warming, extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, and their impact on monthly Indian Monsoon rainfall from June to November in NMME models

Indian Ocean (IO) warming, the frequency of extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole (EPIOD) events, and its impact on Indian monsoon rainfall (IMR) are more prominent in the recent era. A proper understanding of the relationship between the EPIOD and IMR is very important because two thirds of the people in India are dependent on agriculture and related economy. The primary focus of this study is on three main aspects: (i) analysing the monthly trend of sea surface temperature (SST) in the IO; (ii) the spatial variability of SST anomalies (SSTA) linked to the EPIOD and its impact on the IMR; and (iii) the factor responsible for the intensification of the EPIOD. These aspects are thoroughly assessed using 12 NMME models, comparing them with observations and reanalysis datasets from 1990 to 2020. The analysis reveals a warming trend in the central IO during June and July, with significant increases observed from August to November. Over the past 31 years, the central IO has experienced an approximate rise of 0.9 to 1 °C from June to November. Among the 12 models scrutinised, GFDL_FLOR_A, FLOR_B, and RSMAS_CCSM4 closely align with observed spatial trends. In contrast, models such as GFDL_SPEAR and NASA_GEOSS tend to overestimate these spatial trends. An increase in easterlies over the equatorial eastern IO was identified as a possible driver for the rising SST in the central IO during October and November. In response to EPIOD on the monthly spatial rainfall distribution over India, all NMME models often underestimate rainfall over the west coast and exhibit wet biases over the leeward side of the Western Ghats. Grid-wise skill scores for accumulated monthly rainfall demonstrated variations among NMME models, with GFDL_SPEAR, RSMAS_CCSM4, and other IC3 models showing higher skill. The interhemispheric pressure gradient (IHPG) has been identified as a precursor to EPIOD events. A positive IHPG from March to June is correlated with EPIOD occurrences from October to December. It is observed that half of the NMME models are capable of simulating a positive relationship between IOD and IHPG, consistent with the observed data.

Unraveling the Influence of Equatorial Waves on Post-Monsoon Sea Surface Salinity Anomalies in the Bay of Bengal

In this study, we investigate the connection between planetary equatorial waves, modulated by the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the interannual variabilities of the salinity distribution in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) in October–December (OND), along with its associated dynamics, using satellite and reanalysis datasets. In OND 2010 and 2016 (1994, 1997, 2006, and 2019), positive (negative) sea surface salinity anomalies (SSSAs) were distributed in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) and Andaman Sea. Moreover, the southward movement of negative (positive) SSSAs along the eastern Indian coast was observed. This phenomenon was caused by large-scale anomalous currents associated with zonal wind over the EIO. During OND 2010 and 2016 (1994, 1997, 2006, and 2019), due to anomalous westerlies (easterlies) over the EIO and anomalous downwelling (upwelling) Kelvin waves, the strengthened (weakened) Wyrtki jet and the basin-scale anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation in the BoB gave rise to positive (negative) SSSAs within the eastern EIO and Andaman Sea. In addition, the intensified (weakened) eastern Indian coastal currents led to the southward movement of negative (positive) SSSAs. It is worth noting that downwelling Kelvin waves reached the western coast of India during OND 2010 and 2016, while upwelling Kelvin waves were only confined to the eastern coast of India during OND 1994, 1997, 2006, and 2019. Furthermore, westward salinity signals associated with reflected westward Rossby waves could modulate the spatial pattern of salinity. The distribution of salinity anomalies could potentially influence the formation of the barrier layer, thereby impacting the sea surface temperature variability and local convection.

Changes in size-dependent Chlorophyll a concentration and group-specific picophytoplankton abundance in short-term nutrient-addition experiments in the Equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean

To clarify the changes in phytoplankton community and influencing factors in short-term nutrient-addition experiments in the Equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean, we conducted three experiments (one in situ-like experiment, one on-deck experiment with deep seawater, and one on-deck experiment with surface seawater). Our findings indicate that when nutrients were added, there was a more significant increase in the chlorophyll a (chl a) concentrations of microphytoplankton (>20 μm) compared to those of nanophytoplankton (2-20 μm) and picophytoplankton (<2 μm). The chl a concentrations for phytoplankton <20 μm only exhibited significant increases in the on-board incubation of surface seawater collected at 1300 hr when grazing stress have likely been weak. In picophytoplankton, occasional increases in the abundances of Synechococcus were found, while the abundances of Prochlorococcus and eukaryotic picophytoplankton (Peuk) did not increase significantly. It results likely from the preference of grazing effect by herbivores and bottle effects. Additionally, the Prochlorococcus from 75 m was more adapted to weak light, thus its abundance sharply decreased when incubated under high light. We suggest that the nutrient effects have greater influence on microphytoplankton, but other factors, such as grazing and light, might contribute more to <20 μm phytoplankton. Furthermore, bottle effects should be considered when conducting incubation experiments.

Impact of bathymetry on Indian Ocean circulation in a nested regional ocean model

The Regional Indian Ocean model based on Modular Ocean Model (MOM4p1) was used to understand the importance of a realistic representation of bathymetry on Ocean General Circulation. The model has 1/4° uniform horizontal resolution and is forced with Coordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II) inter-annual forcing with two simulations named BLND (realistic bathymetry) and OM3 (smoothed bathymetry), which only differ in the representation of bathymetry for the years 1992–2005. We also used recent reanalysis products from ORAS5 and SODA3 and ADCP observation to compare the subsurface currents. We show that by the inclusion of realistic bathymetry, there is a significant improvement in the upper ocean salinity, temperature, and currents, particularly near the coast. The salinity and temperature of the upper ocean are very close to the observed value near the coast. The bias in the salinity and temperature was reduced to half in BLND simulation compared to OM3, which led to a more realistic East India Coastal Current (EICC). We show the first evidence of a basin-wide cyclonic gyre over the Bay of Bengal at 1000 m depth during spring, which is just opposite to that of a basin-wide anti-cyclonic gyre at the surface. We found the presence of poleward EICC during spring at 1000 m and 2000 m depth, which is opposite to that of the surface. The presence of this deeper EICC structure is completely absent during fall. We show the presence of a boundary current along the coast of Andaman and Nicobar Island at a depth of 2000 m. The observed Wyrtki Jet (WJ) magnitude and spatial structure are most realistically reproduced in BLND simulation as compared to OM3 simulations. Both ORAS5 and SODA reanalysis products underestimate the WJ magnitude. The presence of the Maldives Islands is responsible for the westward extent of Equatorial Under Current (EUC). The presence of Maldives also creates wakes on the leeward side in the EUC zonal current. During fall, EUC is better defined in the eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean and lies at a depth of between 50 and 100 m, unlike its spring counterpart, in which its core is located slightly deeper, between 100 and 150 m depth. During peak summer months, June–July, a strong eastward zonal jet is present at 1000 m depth, similar to Wyrtki Jet (WJ). Inter-monsoon Jets, i.e., spring and fall jets, are also seen but are in the opposite direction, i.e., westward, unlike eastward in WJ.

Modulation of the northward penetration of Antarctica intermediate waters into the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean under glacial and interglacial conditions

The Indo-Pacific warm pool is the warmest and most dynamic ocean–atmosphere-climate system on Earth and was subject to significant climate changes during the Pleistocene glacial-interglacial transitions. This has been shown to significantly affected the strength of surface waters that redistribute heat from the tropics to the southern part of the Indian Ocean. Here we investigate the response of the oceanic circulation at intermediate depth (1200 m) of the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO) with neodymium (Nd) isotopes in the context of the climatic oscillation of the last 500 ka. The most striking feature of our new dataset is the seesaw Nd record that mimics glacial-interglacial cycles. While the interglacial periods are characterized by a higher contribution of the less radiogenic neodymium (~ − 7εNd) Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), the glacial periods are characterized by more radiogenic water mass of Pacific origin (~ − 5εNd). To explain the increase in the εNd signature toward a more radiogenic signature as the Indo-Pacific connection is reduced under the low sea level of the glacial periods, we show that under global cooling, the AAIW advances northward into the tropics, which is a consequence of the general slowdown of the thermohaline circulation. Therefore, oceanic mixing at intermediate depth in the eastern tropical Indian intermediate water is modulated by the production rate of the AAIW in the Southern Ocean. Our study provides new evidence for the role that changes in the deep oceanic conditions play in amplifying externally forced climate changes that ultimately lead to drier/moister atmospheric conditions and weaker/stronger monsoons during glacial/interglacial periods over eastern tropical Indian Ocean.

Distribution and biogeochemical perspectives of nutrients in the Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean

The seasonal reversal of ocean circulation associated with seasonal change in the direction of prevailing winds and the occurrence of several anomalous events in the Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO) make this region dynamic and complex in terms of its biogeochemical characteristics. Two multidisciplinary cruises were conducted to measure nutrients and associated physicochemical parameters across the water column (up to 1000 m) of the EEIO during boreal summer and winter monsoons to understand the distribution of nutrients and their spatio-temporal variability from a biogeochemical perspective. The seasonality in the thermohaline structure of the region is indistinct except for surface salinity drop during summer monsoon due to more precipitation on-site and in adjoining areas. Low concentrations of chlorophyll at the surface and in the deep chlorophyll maxima represent the oligotrophic nature of this region. Surface water was found nutrient-depleted (0.03–0.4 µM Nitrate, 0.02–0.13 µM Phosphate). The maxima of vertical profiles of nitrate and phosphate were recorded at a shallower depth (150–200 m) when compared to its maxima in usual oceanic conditions, but a silicate maximum was recorded in deeper water. In the surface and upper mixed layer paucity of nutrients resulted in low N:P and N:Si ratios. Therefore, nitrogen limitation is evident. The overall ratio of N:P yielded a mean value of 15.33 and matched with the representative literature value for the Indian Ocean. The minimum oxygen values (<50 µM) in the deep water (150–200 m) indicated a hypoxic condition. No signature of denitrification and a moderate nitrate deficit were observed in deep waters. The negative values of Nitrate anomaly (N-tracer) at 50–100 m depth were attributed to a Watermass influenced by denitrification. The prevailing oligotrophic condition caused limited synthesis of organic matter and subsequently little decomposition in deep water. The maxima in the apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) profile are confined to 150 to 200 m depth and represent the most active zone for regeneration that is limited to shallow depth. Regenerated nutrients reached maxima at shallower depth and primarily control material cycling in this region. Supply of nitrate to the surface water based on the preformed values of prevailing water mass was primarily by Bay of Bengal water. According to the findings of this study, preformed nitrate concentrations between 100 and 200 metres below the surface were found very low, indicating that Indonesian Through Flow (ITF) has little impact on the distribution of nutrients in this area.

Dynamics of the Barrier Layer Dipole in the Equatorial Indian Ocean

AbstractThe barrier layer (BL) significantly impacts the upper ocean circulation and thermodynamic structure by inhibiting the heat and momentum exchange between the mixed layer (ML) and the subsurface layer. There exist sea surface temperature and salinity dipole modes in the tropical Indian Ocean, however, a BL dipole mode has not yet been identified. Using the latest observations and ocean reanalysis, here we show a robust BL dipole mode in the central and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, which is highly correlated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. Composite analysis shows that the BL thickness anomalies peak in autumn and are much larger during positive IOD events than during negative IOD events. We show that a positive BL dipole phase is characterized by positive BL thickness anomalies in the central equatorial Indian Ocean and negative BL thickness anomalies in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, and vice versa for a negative BL dipole phase. During positive IOD events, negative surface salinity anomalies slightly affect the ML depth along the equatorial Indian Ocean. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies deepen the isothermal layer (IL) in the central equatorial Indian Ocean and strong negative subsurface temperature anomalies significantly lift the IL in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, controlling the BL thickness anomalies and forming a positive BL dipole pattern. This operates in an opposite direction during negative IOD events. Our study shows a close relationship between the BL dipole and the IOD and has far‐reaching implications for better understanding and predicting the IOD events.

How Well Do CMIP6 Models Simulate Salinity Barrier Layers in the North Indian Ocean?

Abstract Previous studies have hypothesized that climatologically thick salinity-stratified barrier layers (BLs) in the north Indian Ocean (NIO) influence the upper ocean heat budget, sea surface temperature (SST), and monsoons. Here, we investigate how state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models simulate the NIO barrier layer thickness (BLT). CMIP6 models generally reproduce the BLT seasonal cycle and spatial distribution, but with shallow November–February (NDJF) biases in regions with thick observed BLT: the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO), Bay of Bengal (BoB), and southeastern Arabian Sea (SEAS). We show that the intensity of the CMIP6 equatorial easterly wind bias controls the EEIO shallow isothermal layer depth (ILD) and BLT biases. It also controls the BoB shallow BLT bias, both through the propagation of the EEIO shallow ILD bias into the NIO coastal waveguide and because it is linked to the BoB dry and cold bias through the Bjerknes feedback, hence also controlling the mixed layer depth (MLD) deep bias there. Finally, the SEAS shallow BLT bias is due to a too-deep MLD, in response to subdued monsoonal currents around India, which do not bring enough BoB low-salinity water. The BL insulating effect mentioned in literature does not seem to dominate in CMIP6. Rather, the CMIP6 salinity-related deep MLD biases diminish the BoB cooling rate by winter upward surface heat fluxes, reducing cold SST biases. This suggests that salinity effects alleviate the easterly equatorial wind, cold, and dry BoB biases that develop through the positive Bjerknes feedback loop in CMIP6.

Changes in the Indian Ocean surface hydrography driven by the seaway closure and monsoonal circulation since the late Oligocene

Closure of the East Tethyan and Indonesian gateways and development of the Indian or South Asian monsoon (SAM) wind system had profound control on Indian Ocean circulation. However, the dynamics of the Indian Ocean surface hydrography since the late Oligocene hitherto remains poorly constrained. Planktic foraminiferal relative abundance and stable isotope data from ODP Site 758A, eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO) reveal a conspicuous thick mixed layer between ∼25.6 and 14.7 Ma, except for a short-lived thinning from 20.7 to 19.4 Ma. We suggest that existence of a thick mixed layer and perhaps higher sea surface temperatures in the EEIO increased convection and atmospheric moisture transport to the southern hemisphere, which contributed to the expansion of Antarctic ice volume. The East Tethyan Seaway closure and constriction of the Indonesian Gateways cooled the surface and deep waters at ∼14.7 Ma when the mixed layer thickness began to decrease and thermocline began to shoal. Seasonal fluctuations between mixed layer and thermocline were secular from 25.6 to 12.9 Ma which became more intense and frequent in the younger interval. A shift in the surface hydrography with high frequency changes at ∼12.9 Ma was driven by the onset of the SAM wind system, leading to the development of the modern summer monsoon surface circulation in the Indian Ocean.

Diversity and community structure of microzooplankton in the eastern Indian Ocean during the inter-monsoon period

Microzooplankton (MZP) are an important part of the microbial food web and play a pivotal role in connecting the classic food chain with the microbial loop in the marine ecosystem. They may play a more important role than mesozooplankton in the lower latitudes and oligotrophic oceans. In this article, we studied the species composition, dominant species, abundance, and carbon biomass of MZP, including the relationship between biological variables and environmental factors in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean during the spring intermonsoon. We found that the MZP community in this ocean showed a high species diversity, with a total of 340 species. Among these, the heterotrophic dinoflagellates (HDS) (205 species) and ciliates (CTS) (126 species) were found to occupy the most significant advantageous position. In addition, CTS (45.3%) and HDS (39.7%) accounted for a larger proportion of the population abundance, while HDS (47.1%) and copepod nauplii (CNP) (46.4%) made a larger contribution to the carbon biomass. There are significant differences in the ability of different groups of MZP to assimilate organic carbon. In this sea area, MZP are affected by periodic currents, and temperature is the main factor affecting the distribution of the community. The MZP community is dominated by eurytopic species and CNP. CTS are more sensitive to environmental changes than HDS, among which Ascampbelliella armilla may be a better habitat indicator species. In low-latitude and oligotrophic ocean areas, phytoplankton with smaller cell diameters were found to occupy a higher proportion, while there was no significant correlation between the total concentration of integrated chlorophyll a and the biological variables of MZP. Therefore, we propose that the relationship between size-fractionated phytoplankton and MZP deserves further study. In addition, the estimation of the carbon biomass of MZP requires the establishment of more detailed experimental methods to reflect the real situation of organisms. This study provides more comprehensive data for understanding the diversity and community structure of MZP in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, which is also of good value for studying the adaptation mechanism and ecological functions of MZP in low-latitude and oligotrophic ocean ecosystems.

The change in convection over the Indo-Pacific warm pool in the mid-Holocene and its influence on South Asian precipitation

This study investigates how convection over the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) differed during the mid-Holocene compared to the preindustrial period. The research employs modeling data from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phases 3 and 4 combined with published hydroclimate records from the Maritime Continent and a new primary productivity reconstruction in the western Celebes Sea. While there is large variability amongst models in terms of simulating precipitation changes, the model AWI-ESM-1-1-LR has the highest agreement with proxy data. This model indicates a dipole pattern consisting of strengthened convection over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and Sumatra and weakened convection over the western equatorial Pacific and Borneo-Sulawesi-New Guinea. The reduced convection over the latter region is supported by the primary productivity record illustrating lower precipitation over Borneo and a deepened nutricline in the western Celebes Sea driven by anomalous equatorial easterly winds. This dipole pattern demonstrates an anomalous trans-ocean zonal circulation cell that links the western equatorial Pacific and equatorial Indian Oceans. This cell emerging in summer and peaking in autumn, is proposed to arise from a trans-ocean zonal imbalance of equatorial precipitation change induced by altered summer insolation, and higher equatorial insolation in autumn. The increased precipitation in South Asia during the mid-Holocene is partially attributed to moisture transported from the western equatorial Pacific associated with this anomalous zonal cell. Thus, the dipole pattern of altered IPWP convection is tightly linked to dynamic precipitation changes and can influence regions outside the IPWP.

Estimation of the barrier layer thickness in the Indian Ocean based on hybrid neural network model

Accurately and effectively estimating of the barrier layer thickness (BLT) is essential for the research of ocean thermodynamics, ocean dynamics, and air-sea interaction. Artificial intelligence model provides an effective means for accurately estimating BLT from sea surface and gridded Argo data. The present study focuses on the application of a hybrid particle swarm optimization-based artificial neural networks model (PSO-ANN) for estimating the BLT in the Indian Ocean. The input variables of the hybrid model include sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface height (SSH) and precipitation (P), and the output variable is the BLT value. Multivariate satellite and gridded Argo data collected from the Indian Ocean between January 2012 and December 2019 (i.e., a database consists 239,568 training datasets and 34,224 testing datasets) are provided to prepare the training and testing datasets for the model. The parameters of ANN model, such as network parameter, network weights, and dropout rates are optimized using the PSO algorithm to achieve the best estimation model. R-squared (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE) are used to evaluate the performance of the model. Two groups of comparative experiments (Case 1 and Case 2) on the performance of the PSO-ANN model demonstrate that the model in Case 2 can better capture the complex features of the BLT in the ocean region. The performance of the PSO-ANN model in Case 2 is further compared with the data-driven estimation models such as the traditional ANN model and the known multilinear regression model (MRM), as well as the CESM2-WACCM dynamic model from CMIP6. The comparison results show that the dynamic model has the worst performance among the four models. Moreover, the annual average RMSE value for the PSO-ANN model is 1.83 m, which is 12% and 84% lower than that of the traditional ANN and MRM, respectively. The R2 value for the model of 0.85 is improved by 4% and 40% compared to that of two models. Furthermore, three regions with significant seasonal fluctuations of the BLT in the Indian Ocean are selected to further evaluate the estimation accuracy of the hybrid model in 2019; the Southeast Arabian Sea (SEAS), the Bay of Bengal (BoB), and the Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO). As a result, the hybrid model is capable of reflecting seasonal variation trends in these regions, but there is room for improvement in the estimation accuracy. In addition, the correlation analysis between BLT and sea surface parameters indicates that there exist significant correlations between the BLT and SSS, P. The results of this study show that the proposed hybrid model can be used to estimate and analyze BLT in certain regions with complex ocean dynamics processes. Moreover, the model can be extended to estimate other key ocean parameters and provide effective technical support for studying the internal ocean parameters.

Assessment of seasonal forecasting errors of the ECMWF system in the eastern Indian Ocean

The interannual variability of the Equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean (EEIO) is highly relevant for the climate anomalies on adjacent continents and affects global teleconnection patterns. Yet, this is an area where seasonal forecasting systems exhibit large errors. Here we investigate the reasons for these errors in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system SEAS5 using tailored diagnostics and a series of numerical experiments.Results indicate that there are two fundamental and independent sources of forecast errors in the EEIO. The first one is of atmospheric nature and is largely related with too strong and stable easterly atmospheric circulation present in the equatorial Indian Ocean. This induces an easterly bias which leaves the coupled model predominantly in a state with a shallow thermocline and cold SSTs in the EEIO. The second error is of oceanic origin, associated with a too shallow thermocline, which enhances the SST errors arising from errors in the wind. Ocean initial conditions, which depend on both the quality of the assimilation and the ocean model, play an important role in this context. Nevertheless, it is found that the version of the ocean model used for the forecast can also play a non-negligible role at the seasonal time scales, by amplifying or damping the subsurface errors in the initial conditions.Errors in the EEIO are regime-dependent, having different causes in the warm (deep thermocline) regime with strong atmospheric convection and in the cold (shallow thermocline) regime. Errors also exhibit decadal variations, which challenges the calibration methods used in seasonal forecasts.

Meta-learning-based estimation of the barrier layer thickness in the tropical Indian Ocean

Accurately estimating the barrier layer thickness (BLT) is crucial for enhancing our understanding of the ocean’s role in climate variability on both regional and global scales. Here, we propose a meta-learning-based ensemble model to estimate the BLT using satellite observations in the tropical Indian Ocean. The results show that the meta-learning-based ensemble model outperforms the three individual models in terms of spatial distribution and accuracy, with significantly reduced root mean square errors in the Southeast Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Furthermore, we found that sea surface salinity plays the most significant role in the estimation of BLT, highlighting the dominant influence of salinity stratification. These preliminary results provide an insight into the feasibility of predicting the BLT using satellite observations and have implications for studying the upper ocean dynamics using machine learning techniques.

Influencing factors associated with the second dominant pattern of the Indian summer monsoon

AbstractThe interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) affects millions of people in India and the global weather and climate. The teleconnections that affect this variation are not stable. The recent four decades of the second dominant mode of ISM rainfall show a unique north–south tripole pattern, with above‐normal rainfall in the north and peninsular India sandwiching suppressed rainfall in central‐east India. The pattern relates to extending the Indo‐Pacific warm‐pool's warmer sea‐surface temperature (SST) towards the south of the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean. Most of the time, this warming and the extension of the warm‐pool's warmer SST are associated with La Niña events, which activate more in situ vigorous convection. The Rossby‐gyres generated west of the equatorial heating increase the tropospheric height over north India, shifting and strengthening the Tibetan High northwards, facilitating heavy rainfall in the north. Meanwhile, the more vigorous convection south of the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean produces compensatory subsidence over central‐east India, suppressing rainfall. The northern hemispheric Rossby‐gyres brings anomalous cyclonic circulation over peninsular India, producing excess rainfall. Also, the dipole pressure anomaly between the northwest Pacific and south tropical Indian Ocean generates anomalous lower‐level easterly winds over the Bay of Bengal. It supplies excess moisture to the north India convections. The co‐occurrence of the active Atlantic intertropical convergence zone supports this tripole rainfall pattern. This teleconnection could further be examined in climate models.

Spatial Distribution and Seasonal Variation of Hypoxic Zone in the Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean

Spatial Distribution and Seasonal Variation of Hypoxic Zone in the Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean

Long-term shift and recent early onset of chlorophyll-a bloom and coastal upwelling along the southern coast of Java

Long-term change in the timing of coastal upwelling due to climate variations alters the heat budget and biogeochemical balance in the regional ocean and is an important issue in local fisheries. In this study, we investigated decadal changes in the onset of coastal upwelling along the southern coast of Java over the past two decades (2003–2020) based on the timing of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) bloom. We estimated the bloom from satellite Chl-a concentration data. On average, the onset of coastal upwelling observed (the first Chl-a bloom of the year) was around mid-June. In the most recent decade (2011–2020), earlier-onset upwelling (before early June) was observed frequently, and the linear trend for the onset date during 2003–2020 was about 2 weeks earlier/decade. To explore the causes of the change in the timing of the upwelling, we focused on the season (April–June) during which these earlier upwelling onsets occurred, and investigated decadal changes in atmosphere and ocean conditions associated with climate change. While sea surface temperature (SST) trends reflected a basin-wide warming pattern in the Indian Ocean, warming was not significant in the southeastern Indian Ocean. During the onset period of coastal upwelling, significant SST warming trends were also observed west of Sumatra. In association with the SST warming pattern, enhanced convective activity and convergent zonal winds around Sumatra were observed. Atmospheric forcing revealed trends favoring Ekman downwelling in the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean and upwelling in the southeastern Indian Ocean, which was consistent with the trends in thermocline depth. This study provides the first results regarding the recent decadal shift in the onset timing of coastal upwelling. Ongoing monitoring is needed to better understand the long-term change of the upwelling system in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean.

A Large Winter Chlorophyll‐a Bloom in the Southeastern Bay of Bengal Associated With the Extreme Indian Ocean Dipole Event in 2019

AbstractA large Chlorophyll‐a (Chla) bloom developed in the southeastern Bay of Bengal (BoB) (4°N–10°N, 88°E−95°E) during winter 2019 and was observed from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer‐Aqua Chla data. By analyzing various observational and reanalysis datasets, we found that remote Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) upwelling waves and local Ekman pumping associated with the extreme Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event in 2019 were responsible for the Chla bloom. The extreme IOD 2019 favored strong upwelling Kelvin waves propagating from the eastern EIO into the BoB along the eastern boundary. These Kelvin waves were reflected into the central BoB as upwelling Rossby waves manifested by eddylike sea surface height propagating westward approximately along 5°N. In addition, local wind stress curl generated strong Ekman pumping in the southeastern BoB. As a result, upwelling processes associated with westward‐propagating Rossby waves and local Ekman pumping together uplifted the thermocline, breaking the stratification so that subsurface nutrient‐rich water was transported to the surface to cause a large Chla bloom in the southeastern BoB during winter 2019. The Chla bloom had a ring structure and its spatial shape was modulated by westward upwelling Rossby waves and cyclonic eddies. This study highlights the important role of IOD events in the formation of Chla bloom in the southeastern BoB during winter.

Subsurface Bacterioplankton Structure and Diversity in the Strongly-Stratified Water Columns within the Equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean.

The consequences of climate change may directly or indirectly impact the marine biosphere. Although ocean stratification has been recognized as one of the crucial consequences of ocean warming, its impacts on several critical aspects of marine microbes remain largely unknown in the Indian Ocean. Here, we investigate the effects of water stratification, in both surface and subsurface layers, on hydrogeographic parameters and bacterioplankton diversity within the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean (EIO). Strong stratification in the upper 200 m of equatorial EIO was detected with evidential low primary productivity. The vertical bacterioplankton diversity of the whole water columns displayed noticeable variation, with lower diversity occurring in the surface layer than in the subsurface layers. Horizontal heterogeneity of bacterioplankton communities was also in the well-mixed layer among different stations. SAR11 and Prochlorococcus displayed uncharacteristic low abundance in the surface water. Some amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) were identified as potential biomarkers for their specific depths in strongly-stratified water columns. Thus, barriers resulting from stratification are proposed to function as an 'ASV filter' to regulate the vertical bacterioplankton community diversity along the water columns. Overall, our results suggest that the effects of stratification on the structure and diversity of bacterioplankton can extend up to the bathypelagic zone in the strongly-stratified waters of the equatorial EIO. This study provides the first insight into the effect of stratification on the subsurface microbial communities in the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean.

Biases and teleconnections in the Met Office Global Coupled Model version 5.0 (GC5) – insights for seasonal prediction and Australia

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (The Bureau) has been involved in the package testing and assessment process of the UK Met Office Global Coupled Model Version 5.0 (GC5) configuration. GC5 will underpin the Met Office’s next seasonal prediction system, global coupled numerical weather prediction (NWP) system and Earth System Model. It will also likely be the next version of The Bureau’s seasonal prediction system, and the version to replace the global atmosphere-only NWP system to be the first global coupled NWP system at The Bureau. The GC5 configuration includes a new sea-ice model and substantial updates to almost all areas of model physics. We have evaluated the present-day climate simulation, and compared it to observations and with previous versions GC4 and GC2. Our assessment focuses on the climate mean state and variabilities relevant to Australian seasonal prediction, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode and the Madden–Julian Oscillation. Notably, in comparison to its predecessor (GC4), GC5 shows significant improvements in the eastern Pacific mean state but a slight degradation in the Indian Ocean in terms of the mean state and variability. These and other results provide us with early insights of the potential performance of the next sub-seasonal or seasonal forecast system. Longstanding issues in the seasonal prediction system associated with the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean biases and an overactive ENSO and IOD will likely remain; however, improvements over the eastern equatorial Pacific in GC5 hold promise of improved prediction skill of ENSO and its teleconnections.