Equatorial East Africa Research Articles

Late Quaternary relative humidity changes from Mt. Kilimanjaro, based on a coupled 2H-18O biomarker paleohygrometer approach

Abstract Our understanding of African paleoclimate/hydrological history is mainly based on lake level and lake sediment studies. It improved during the last decade thanks to emerging stable isotope techniques such as compound-specific deuterium analysis of sedimentary leaf wax biomarkers (δ2Hleaf-wax). Here we present the results from a multi-proxy biomarker study carried out on a ∼100 ka loess-like paleosol sequence preserved in the Maundi crater at ∼2780 m a.s.l. on the southeastern slopes of Mt. Kilimanjaro in equatorial East Africa. The Maundi stable isotope records established for hemicellulose-derived sugars, lignin- and pectin-derived methoxyl groups, leaf wax-derived fatty acid and n-alkane biomarkers (δ18Osugars, δ2Hmethoxyl groups, δ2Hfatty-acids and δ2Hn-alkanes, respectively) reveal similar patterns, but also some distinct differences are obvious. The periods from ∼70 to 60 ka, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Younger Dryas (YD) are characterized by more positive δ values, whereas during the Holocene, and around 30, 39, and 56 ka BP more negative δ values are determined. The application of a ‘coupled δ2Hn-alkane-δ18Osugar paleohygrometer’ approach allows us to derive information about Late Quaternary changes of air relative humidity at the Maundi study site. Reconstructed changes of mean day-time relative humidity (RHD) are in good agreement with pollen results from the study area. Apart from the overall regional moisture availability, the intensification versus weakening of the trade wind inversion, which affects the diurnal montane atmospheric circulation on the slopes of Mt. Kilimanjaro, is suggested as a local factor which may contribute to the observed variability of RHD at Maundi study site. The combined usage of δ2Hn-alkanes and δ18Osugars allowed us to reconstruct δ2H/δ18O of source water utilized by plants in the study area, which is directly linked to local precipitation. The results of this reconstruction caution against a straightforward interpretation of δ2Hleaf-wax and δ18Osugars records as proxies for isotopic composition of local precipitation because variable and primarily RH-dependent isotopic evaporative enrichment of leaf water can mask changes of δ2Hprec/δ18Oprec in the past. The biomarker-based δ2H/δ18Osource-water records derived for the Maundi site revealed a discernible link with the reconstructed RHD record; lower RHD values were generally observed during periods characterized by more negative δ2H/δ18Osource-water values, indicating a reverse relationship with the expected precipitation amount. This indicates that the empirical relationship between amount of rainfall and its isotopic composition, observed nowadays on monthly timescale in the East African region, might not be valid on millennial time scale.

Plant water resource partitioning and isotopic fractionation during transpiration in a seasonally dry tropical climate

Abstract. Lake Chala (3°19′ S, 37°42′ E) is a steep-sided crater lake situated in equatorial East Africa, a tropical semiarid area with a bimodal rainfall pattern. Plants in this region are exposed to a prolonged dry season, and we investigated if (1) these plants show spatial variability and temporal shifts in their water source use; (2) seasonal differences in the isotopic composition of precipitation are reflected in xylem water; and (3) plant family, growth form, leaf phenology, habitat and season influence the xylem-to-leaf water deuterium enrichment. In this study, the δ2H and δ18O of precipitation, lake water, groundwater, plant xylem water and plant leaf water were measured across different plant species, seasons and plant habitats in the vicinity of Lake Chala. We found that plants rely mostly on water from the short rains falling from October to December (northeastern monsoon), as these recharge the soil after the long dry season. This plant-available, static water pool is only slightly replenished by the long rains falling from February to May (southeastern monsoon), in agreement with the two water worlds hypothesis, according to which plants rely on a static water pool while a mobile water pool recharges the groundwater. Spatial variability in water resource use exists in the study region, with plants at the lakeshore relying on a water source admixed with lake water. Leaf phenology does not affect water resource use. According to our results, plant species and their associated leaf phenology are the primary factors influencing the enrichment in deuterium from xylem water to leaf water (εl/x), with deciduous species giving the highest enrichment, while growth form and season have negligible effects. Our observations have important implications for the interpretation of δ2H of plant leaf wax n-alkanes (δ2Hwax) from paleohydrological records in tropical East Africa, given that the temporal variability in the isotopic composition of precipitation is not reflected in xylem water and that leaf water deuterium enrichment is a key factor in shaping δ2Hwax. The large interspecies variability in xylem–leaf enrichment (24 ± 28 ‰) is potentially troublesome, taking into account the likelihood of changes in species assemblage with climate shifts.

Tropospheric Ozone Climatology in Eastern Equatorial Africa

Tropospheric ozone climatology in eastern Equatorial Africa has been at the core of this study. Seasonal and annual tropospheric ozone distribution and variation have been investigated using SHADOZ network data from Nairobi for the period 1998-2013. Meteorological parameters including air temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure as well as ozone partial pressure have permitted to provide the first comprehensible tropospheric ozone climatology over this region. Mean seasonal tropospheric ozone distribution displays two distinct peaks occurring in winter with 43 DU (July) and 46.8 DU in spring (October). Comparison of mean seasonal ozone partial pressure with relative humidity profiles shows a logarithmic trend with strong regression coefficient for ozone partial pressure (0.81<R2<0.92). Conversely relative humidity variation displays a linear trend with a weak seasonal regression (0.57<R2<0.74). Seasonal vertical tropospheric ozone variation displays two ozone peaks of 121 ppbv in JJA and 126 ppbv in SON at 100 hPa respectively. A minimum photochemical source contribution from local and neighboring countries has been noted at surface to mid latitude. Investigation of individual profiles chosen as case studies for JJA (25/07/2001) and SON (09/10/2002), to assess the origin of high tropospheric ozone concentration has been performed by using back trajectory HYSPLIT model. The strong role played by the Indian Ocean in the long range transport of easterly air mass into eastern Africa at mid and upper troposphere in both seasons has been confirmed. However mean monthly NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis model used to assess the contribution of STE (Stratospheric Tropospheric Exchange), shows a positive mean eddy divergence values during the months of June to July 2001, with evidence of high vorticity 1 sigma values occurring over the same period. In summer higher positive 1 sigma divergence as well as 1 sigma vorticity values have been noted showing stronger STE activity occurring in SON period. These parameters suggest that STE contribution to ozone enhancement in equatorial east Africa is stronger during SON than in JJA. Given the complexity of climate patterns over the equatorial region, in which Nairobi is located, the influence of ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) and QBO (Quasi Biennial Oscillation) in the STE occurrence cannot be excluded as noted by previous studies.

Variability of extreme weather events over the equatorial East Africa, a case study of rainfall in Kenya and Uganda

This study investigates the variability of extreme rainfall events over East Africa (EA), using indices from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The analysis was based on observed daily rainfall from 23 weather stations, with length varying within 1961 and 2010. The indices considered are: wet days (R ≥1 mm), annual total precipitation in wet days (PRCPTOT), simple daily intensity index (SDII), heavy precipitation days (R ≥ 10 mm), very heavy precipitation days (R ≥ 20 mm), and severe precipitation (R ≥ 50 mm). The non-parametric Mann-Kendall statistical analysis was carried out to identify trends in the data. Temporal precipitation distribution was different from station to station. Almost all indices considered are decreasing with time. The analysis shows that the PRCPTOT, very heavy precipitation, and severe precipitation are generally declining insignificantly at 5 % significant level. The PRCPTOT is evidently decreasing over Arid and Semi-Arid Land (ASAL) as compared to other parts of EA. The number of days that recorded heavy rainfall is generally decreasing but starts to rise in the last decade although the changes are insignificant. Both PRCPTOT and heavy precipitation show a recovery in trend starting in the 1990s. The SDII shows a reduction in most areas, especially the in ASAL. The changes give a possible indication of the ongoing climate variability and change which modify the rainfall regime of EA. The results form a basis for further research, utilizing longer datasets over the entire region to reduce the generalizations made herein. Continuous monitoring of extreme events in EA is critical, given that rainfall is projected to increase in the twenty-first century.

Des-A-lupane in an East African lake sedimentary record as a new proxy for the stable carbon isotopic composition of C3 plants

We studied the high-resolution and well-dated 25,000year sedimentary record of Lake Challa, a deep tropical crater lake in equatorial East Africa, to explore new proxies for paleoenvironmental and paleohydrological change. Sedimentary biomarker analysis revealed the presence of des-A-triterpenoids with oleanane, ursane and lupane carbon skeletons, microbial degradation products of angiosperm plant triterpenoids. Their increased influx from 16,000years ago corresponds with previously documented changes in the terrestrial vegetation of the Lake Challa basin during postglacial warming, in particular the relative increase in C3/C4 plant ratio inferred from the stable carbon isotopic signature (δ13C) of sedimentary n-alkanes derived from plant leaf waxes. In contrast to this n-alkane δ13C signature, the δ13C of des-A-lupane maintains a constant value of −27.4±1.1‰ across the glacial–interglacial transition. Since des-A-lupane is derived from C3 plants, its δ13C signature is here proposed to represent a novel and independent proxy for the time-variable carbon isotopic composition of local terrestrial C3 plants, which can improve estimates of the C3/C4 plant ratio based on two-end member mixing models of n-alkane δ13C values.

Comparison of simulated and reconstructed variations in East African hydroclimate over the last millennium

Abstract. The multi-decadal to centennial hydroclimate changes in East Africa over the last millennium are studied by comparing the results of forced transient simulations by six general circulation models (GCMs) with published hydroclimate reconstructions from four lakes: Challa and Naivasha in equatorial East Africa, and Masoko and Malawi in southeastern inter-tropical Africa. All GCMs simulate fairly well the unimodal seasonal cycle of precipitation in the Masoko–Malawi region, while the bimodal seasonal cycle characterizing the Challa–Naivasha region is generally less well captured by most models. Model results and lake-based hydroclimate reconstructions display very different temporal patterns over the last millennium. Additionally, there is no common signal among the model time series, at least until 1850. This suggests that simulated hydroclimate fluctuations are mostly driven by internal variability rather than by common external forcing. After 1850, half of the models simulate a relatively clear response to forcing, but this response is different between the models. Overall, the link between precipitation and tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the pre-industrial portion of the last millennium is stronger and more robust for the Challa–Naivasha region than for the Masoko–Malawi region. At the inter-annual timescale, last-millennium Challa–Naivasha precipitation is positively (negatively) correlated with western (eastern) Indian Ocean SST, while the influence of the Pacific Ocean appears weak and unclear. Although most often not significant, the same pattern of correlations between East African rainfall and the Indian Ocean SST is still visible when using the last-millennium time series smoothed to highlight centennial variability, but only in fixed-forcing simulations. This means that, at the centennial timescale, the effect of (natural) climate forcing can mask the imprint of internal climate variability in large-scale teleconnections.

Interannual and (multi-)decadal variability in the sedimentary BIT index of Lake Challa, East Africa, over the past 2200 years: assessment of the precipitation proxy

Abstract. The branched vs. isoprenoid tetraether (BIT) index is based on the relative abundance of branched tetraether lipids (brGDGTs) and the isoprenoidal GDGT crenarchaeol. In Lake Challa sediments the BIT index has been applied as a proxy for local monsoon precipitation on the assumption that the primary source of brGDGTs is soil washed in from the lake's catchment. Since then, microbial production within the water column has been identified as the primary source of brGDGTs in Lake Challa sediments, meaning that either an alternative mechanism links BIT index variation with rainfall or that the proxy's application must be reconsidered. We investigated GDGT concentrations and BIT index variation in Lake Challa sediments at a decadal resolution over the past 2200 years, in combination with GDGT time-series data from 45 monthly sediment-trap samples and a chronosequence of profundal surface sediments.Our 2200-year geochemical record reveals high-frequency variability in GDGT concentrations, and therefore in the BIT index, superimposed on distinct lower-frequency fluctuations at multi-decadal to century timescales. These changes in BIT index are correlated with changes in the concentration of crenarchaeol but not with those of the brGDGTs. A clue for understanding the indirect link between rainfall and crenarchaeol concentration (and thus thaumarchaeotal abundance) was provided by the observation that surface sediments collected in January 2010 show a distinct shift in GDGT composition relative to sediments collected in August 2007. This shift is associated with increased bulk flux of settling mineral particles with high Ti / Al ratios during March–April 2008, reflecting an event of unusually high detrital input to Lake Challa concurrent with intense precipitation at the onset of the principal rain season that year. Although brGDGT distributions in the settling material are initially unaffected, this soil-erosion event is succeeded by a massive dry-season diatom bloom in July–September 2008 and a concurrent increase in the flux of GDGT-0. Complete absence of crenarchaeol in settling particles during the austral summer following this bloom indicates that no Thaumarchaeota bloom developed at that time. We suggest that increased nutrient availability, derived from the eroded soil washed into the lake, caused the massive bloom of diatoms and that the higher concentrations of ammonium (formed from breakdown of this algal matter) resulted in a replacement of nitrifying Thaumarchaeota, which in typical years prosper during the austral summer, by nitrifying bacteria. The decomposing dead diatoms passing through the suboxic zone of the water column probably also formed a substrate for GDGT-0-producing archaea. Hence, through a cascade of events, intensive rainfall affects thaumarchaeotal abundance, resulting in high BIT index values.Decade-scale BIT index fluctuations in Lake Challa sediments exactly match the timing of three known episodes of prolonged regional drought within the past 250 years. Additionally, the principal trends of inferred rainfall variability over the past two millennia are consistent with the hydroclimatic history of equatorial East Africa, as has been documented from other (but less well dated) regional lake records. We therefore propose that variation in GDGT production originating from the episodic recurrence of strong soil-erosion events, when integrated over (multi-)decadal and longer timescales, generates a stable positive relationship between the sedimentary BIT index and monsoon rainfall at Lake Challa. Application of this paleoprecipitation proxy at other sites requires ascertaining the local processes which affect the productivity of crenarchaeol by Thaumarchaeota and brGDGTs.

Size variation in Tachyoryctes splendens (East African mole-rat) and its implications for late Quaternary temperature change in equatorial East Africa

This study develops a new proxy for Quaternary temperature change in tropical Africa through analysis of size variation in East African mole-rat (Tachyoryctes splendens). In modern mole-rats, mandibular alveolar length is unrelated to annual precipitation, precipitation seasonality, temperature seasonality, or primary productivity. However, it is inversely correlated with mean annual temperature, in agreement with Bergmann's rule. This relationship is observed at temperatures below ∼17.3 °C, but not at higher temperatures. We apply these observations to late Quaternary mole-rats from Wakondo (∼100 ka) and Kisaaka (∼50 ka) in the Lake Victoria region and Enkapune ya Muto (EYM; ∼7.2–3.2 ka) in Kenya's central rift. The Lake Victoria mole-rats are larger than expected for populations from warm climates typical of the area today, implying cooler temperatures in the past. The magnitude of temperature decline needed to drive the size shift is substantial (∼4–6 °C), similar in magnitude to the degree of change between the Last Glacial Maximum and Holocene, but is consistent with regional temperature records and with scenarios linking equatorial African temperature to northern hemisphere summer insolation. Size changes through time at EYM indicate that rising temperatures during the middle Holocene accompanied and potentially contributed to a decline in Lake Naivasha and expansion of grassland vegetation.

Afrocymbella barkeri sp. nov. (Bacillariophyta), a common phytoplankton component of Lake Challa, a deep crater lake in East Africa

A new freshwater diatom, Afrocymbella barkeri Cocquyt & Ryken sp. nov., is described from Lake Challa, a deep and unproductive crater lake near Mt Kilimanjaro in equatorial East Africa, based on light and electron microscopic observations. This tropical diatom is a representative of the rather small genus Afrocymbella with only 12 known species and with a distribution restricted to the African Rift. Taxa belonging to this genus are heteropolar and characterized by dorsiventral valves curved along the pervalvar axis and the presence of small pseudosepta and septa on the open girdle bands. Afrocymbella barkeri was common only towards the end of the dry and windy season corresponding to northern hemisphere summer, when deep water-column mixing caused upwelling of nutrient-rich water from the hypolimnion. This taxon was observed free living in the water column during mixing, but the presence of a small apical pore field at the foot pole, along with some cells with mucilage stalks, suggests that its primary habitat probably involves attachment to a substrate.

Role of regional thermal contrast over West Asia in interannual variation in atmospheric moisture transportation over the Indian Ocean and neighboring areas at summer monsoon onset

AbstractThe low‐level temperature contrast over West Asia influences the interannual variation in water vapor transportation over the northern and equatorial Indian Ocean and neighboring monsoon area. A composite analysis that takes into account the thermal contrast over West Asia during the monsoon seasonal transition is performed based on the reanalysis and merged observational precipitation data sets. The positive (negative) low‐level thermal contrast anomaly over the Iranian Plateau (IP) strengthens (weakens) the thermal contrast over the Arabian Sea. The low‐level westerly anomaly develops earlier in the positive IP thermal contrast years than in the negative years. As a result, water vapor transport varies. This variation in water vapor transport in turn has an influence on the abrupt increase in precipitation over South Asia and the Arabian Sea and the decrease over equatorial East Africa. The variation in low‐level temperature over the IP precedes the variation of precipitation over these regions by a few pentads. A numerical experiment using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model agrees with the results of the composite analysis. Particles are emitted from the western tropical Indian Ocean region from the preonset to onset period. Results of numerical experiments concerning positive IP thermal contrast years show that particles can be transported into South Asia and the Arabian Sea before the climatological Asian summer monsoon onset pentad. However, small amounts of particles arrive in South Asia and the Arabian Sea at the onset period in negative IP years. The transport into equatorial East Africa becomes weak earlier in positive IP years.

Holocene shelf sedimentation patterns off equatorial East Africa constrained by climatic and sea-level changes

Equatorial East Africa experienced significant variations in paleoclimatic and paleoceanographic conditions during the Holocene. These environmental changes influenced sedimentation patterns on the continental shelf. To date, however, little is known about the sediment source, its transport to, and deposition on, the Tanzanian shelf. This paper presents a new high-resolution Holocene sedimentary record off northeast Tanzania (equatorial East Africa) and provides insights into how sedimentation patterns responded to climatic and oceanographic changes during the Holocene. Based on grain-size distribution patterns and mineral assemblages, three types of shelf sediments were identified: Type I (fine-grained terrigenous sediment) is dominated by clay minerals that originated from continental weathering; Type II (coarse-grained terrigenous sediment) is mainly composed of feldspar and quartz, derived from reworking of pre-existing deposits; and Type III (biogenic marine sediment), with low- and high-magnesium calcite, was produced by marine carbonate-secreting organisms. The high input of Type I sediment during the early Holocene (10–8cal kyr BP) was caused by river mouth bypassing. This supply-dominated regime was controlled by intense river discharge and subsequent resuspension of mud in shelf settings, responding to the humid climate in the hinterland and sea-level rise with low rate off Tanzania. The first occurrence of Type II sediments was around 8cal kyr BP and dominated when sedimentation rates lowered. This accommodation-dominated regime was caused by shoreface bypassing due to an arid climate and sea-level highstand. Type III sediments increased significantly from the early to late Holocene, resulting from the weakening dilution effect of the terrigenous component. The sedimentation pattern on the Tanzanian shelf shifted from allochthonous to autochthonous sedimentation constrained by climatic changes and relative sea-level fluctuations at the end of the early Holocene. Our results also suggest that, with respect to sea-level rise, high sedimentation rate on the continental shelf could be caused by high terrigenous sediment input as a result of a dynamic interplay between the shelf topography and humid climatic conditions inland.

Reconstruction of a semi-arid late Pleistocene paleocatena from the Lake Victoria region, Kenya

The effect of changing environment on the evolution of Homo sapiens is heavily debated, but few data are available from equatorial Africa prior to the last glacial maximum. The Karungu deposits on the northeast coast of Lake Victoria are ideal for paleoenvironmental reconstructions and are best studied at the Kisaaka site near Karunga in Kenya (94 to >33ka) where paleosols, fluvial deposits, tufa, and volcaniclastic deposits (tuffs) are exposed over a ~2km transect. Three well-exposed and laterally continuous paleosols with intercalated tuffs allow for reconstruction of a succession of paleocatenas. The oldest paleosol is a smectitic paleo-Vertisol with saline and sodic properties. Higher in the section, the paleosols are tuffaceous paleo-Inceptisols with Alfisol-like soil characteristics (illuviated clay). Mean annual precipitation (MAP) proxies indicate little change through time, with an average of 764±108mmyr−1 for Vertisols (CALMAG) and 813±182 to 963±182mmyr−1 for all paleosols (CIA-K). Field observations and MAP proxies suggest that Karungu was significantly drier than today, consistent with the associated faunal assemblage, and likely resulted in a significantly smaller Lake Victoria during the late Pleistocene. Rainfall reduction and associated grassland expansion may have facilitated human and faunal dispersals across equatorial East Africa.

Comparison of GPS-TEC with IRI-2012 TEC over African equatorial and low latitude regions during the period of 2012–2013

This paper presents the performance of the latest version of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2012) model in estimating the Vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC) variation over equatorial and low latitude East Africa regions during the period of 2012–2013. This has been conducted by comparing the ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) VTEC inferred from nine dual frequency GPS receivers installed at different regions in the continent. In this work, the diurnal, monthly and seasonal variation in the measured VTEC have been analyzed and compared with the VTEC obtained from IRI-2012 model. It is depicted that the lowest diurnal peaks of the modeled and measured VTEC values are observed in the June solstice months, whereas the highest values are observed in the equinoctial months. The variability of the diurnal GPS-VTEC is also found to be minimal nearly at 03:00 UT and maximal mostly between 09:00 and 14:00 UT. Moreover, the maximum and minimum monthly mean hourly measured VTEC values inferred from both the Arba Minch and Entebbe stations are observed in October and July, respectively. Similarly, the highest and the lowest seasonal mean hourly measured VTEC values are observed in the September equinox and in the June solstice, respectively. The model predictions generally follow the diurnal variations of the measured VTEC, with minimum value at predawn hours and maximum at noontime hours (10:00–13:00 UT). It has been shown that the model better estimates the diurnal VTEC values mostly just after midnight hours (00:00–03:00 UT). Good agreements between the modeled and measured monthly and seasonal mean hourly VTEC values obtained from Arba Minch station are also observed in the equinoctial months. But, for the Entebbe station, the modeled monthly and seasonal VTEC values are larger than the corresponding measured VTEC values by about 75% and 60%, respectively. In addition, there are large discrepancies observed between the diurnal measured and modeled VTEC values (especially in the equinoctial months) in the time interval between 09:00 and 14:00 UT.

Distal tephras of the eastern Lake Victoria basin, equatorial East Africa: correlations, chronology and a context for early modern humans

The tephrostratigraphic framework for Pliocene and Early Pleistocene paleoanthropological sites in East Africa has been well established through nearly 50 years of research, but a similarly comprehensive framework is lacking for the Middle and particularly the Late Pleistocene. We provide the first detailed regional record of Late Pleistocene tephra deposits associated with artifacts or fossils from the Lake Victoria basin of western Kenya. Correlations of Late Pleistocene distal tephra deposits from the Wasiriya beds on Rusinga Island, the Waware beds on Mfangano Island and deposits near Karungu, mainland Kenya, are based on field stratigraphy coupled with 916 electron microprobe analyses of eleven major and minor element oxides from 50 samples. At least eight distinct distal tephra deposits are distinguished, four of which are found at multiple localities spanning >60 km over an approximately north to south transect. New optically stimulated luminescence dates help to constrain the Late Pleistocene depositional ages of these deposits. Our correlation and characterization of volcaniclastic deposits expand and refine the current stratigraphy of the eastern Lake Victoria basin. This provides the basis for relating fossil- and artifact-bearing sediments and a framework for ongoing geological, archaeological and paleontological studies of Late Pleistocene East Africa, a crucial time period for human evolution and dispersal within and out of Africa.

Atmospheric divergence over equatorial East Africa and its influence on distribution of rainfall

Spatial and temporal variability of divergence is analysed over equatorial East Africa. According to the analysis, seasonal march of upper level divergence is bimodal. There is peak upper level divergence during March‐April‐May and October‐November‐December. Analysis of upper level divergence at synoptic hours reveals that peak divergence occurs in the afternoon over the inland areas. Over the coastal areas, peak upper level divergence occurs at night. Spectral analysis results indicate that there is existence of oscillations in upper level divergence. These oscillations vary in terms of their periodicities and the amount of variance that they account for in the observed divergence.

In this issue of Weather

Some weather‐related events receive a good deal of attention – perhaps especially those of recent years. Others, though, have received little attention. In this month's first paper, on p. 139, Colin Clark brings a serious damaging flooding event in Scarborough in June 1857 to our attention. Clearly, if such events have occurred in the past, they may happen again, if not in the same place, perhaps in similar locations elsewhere, so this historical account is of great value to the flood‐forecasting community.Increasingly, we have seen that desert dust may not only bring the hazard of poor visibility and discomfort, but has significant health effects, especially in areas close to the deserts. Şeyda Tilev‐Tanriover and Abdullah Kahraman document two falls of mud rain in Istanbul, Turkey in the relatively dusty eastern Mediterranean winter of 2010.Over the past few years, the South East local centre of the RMetS has been running an increasingly successful photographic competition and some of the best pictures from it are published on both p. 152 and inside the front cover of this issue. As always with the pictures published in Weather, these are well worth a look and I hope they may encourage you, the reader, to send in your notable pictures to the RMetS competitions, for the calendar, or for publication.On p. 153, Jonathan Fairman and his co‐authors examine radar data as a precipitation climatology tool for Britain and Ireland, assessing the quality of rainfall imagery by comparison with raingauge data. A clear conclusion states the difficulties associated with the use of radar data alone, as well as the errors of raingauges. In addition, it looks at some of the issues that may occur once the radar network for Ireland and Britain is converted to dual‐polarisation Doppler scanning over the next few years.We return to our occasional look at the weather of the tropics on p. 158. Kiprop Vincent Koech looks at divergence in the upper troposphere and convergence at low levels as a guide to rainfall development over equatorial East Africa. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the areas conducive to cumulonimbus cloud formation and convective rainfall are the East African Highlands, but the clear consistent results from atmospheric model products is an encouraging sign, reminding us that dynamics are a key element in convection, as well as moist stratified atmospheric developments.

Upper Tropospheric and Stratospheric Ozone Over Equatorial East Africa; Case Study of Nairobi County, Kenya

Ozonesonde measurements over Nairobi, Kenya are presented for the period 2000 – 2014. Ozone concentration is influenced by anthropogenic activities, calling for its continuous monitoring since it affects the climate system and human health. The study utilizes weekly ozonesonde flights, winds and RH from ERA-interim gridded data. The results indicate that the tropopause over Nairobi is approximately 1.3 km in depth. Ozone exhibits a negative trend upwards within the troposphere, up until the tropopause. There is a high increase in the lower stratosphere, peaking in the mid stratosphere. The maximum ozone value of 13.04 ppb is found at a pressure of 20 hpa and approximately, 80% of ozone is found in the stratosphere. The June-August season experiences the highest ozone levels in the low levels and December - February the highest concentration in upper levels as compared to the other seasons. Easterlies are predominant in the lower troposphere, up to about 500mb, westerlies in the mid troposphere and again, easterlies in upper troposphere, extending into the lower stratosphere, commonly known ‘steering winds’ in this region.Key Words: Ozone, Ozonesonde, Stratosphere, Nairobi

A late-Quaternary perspective, on atmospheric pCO2, climate, and fire as drivers of C4-grass abundance.

Various environmental factors, including atmospheric CO2 (pCO2), regional climate, and fire, have been invoked as primary drivers of long-term variation in C4 grass abundance. Evaluating these hypotheses has been difficult because available paleorecords often lack information on past C4 grass abundance or potential environmental drivers. We analyzed carbon isotope ratios (delta13C) of individual grains of grass pollen in the sediments of two East African lakes to infer changes in the relative abundance of C3 vs. C4 grasses during the past 25 000 years. Results were compared with concurrent changes in pCO2, temperature, moisture balance, and fire activity. Our grass-pollen delta13C analysis reveals a dynamic history of grass-dominated vegetation in equatorial East Africa: C4 grasses have not consistently dominated lowland areas, and high-elevation grasses have not always been predominantly C3. On millennial timescales, C4 grass abundance does not correlate with charcoal influx at either site, suggesting that fire was not a major proximate control of the competitive balance between C3 and C4 grasses. Above the present-day treeline on Mt. Kenya, C4 grass abundance declined from an average of approximately 90% during the glacial period to less than approximately 60% throughout the Holocene, coincident with increases in pCO2 and temperature, and shifts in moisture balance. In the lowland savanna southeast of Mt. Kilimanjaro, C4 grass abundance showed no such directional trend, but fluctuated markedly in association with variation in rainfall amount and seasonal-drought severity. These results underscore spatiotemporal variability in the relative influence of pCO2 and climate on the interplay of C3 and C4 grasses and shed light on an emerging conceptual model regarding the expansion of C4-dominated grasslands in Earth's history. They also suggest that future changes in the C3/C4 composition of grass-dominated ecosystems will likely exhibit striking spatiotemporal variability as a result of varying combinations of environmental controls.

Anomalously wet and dry rainy seasons in Equatorial East Africa and associated differences in intra-seasonal characteristics

Differences between anomalously wet and dry rainy seasons over the period 1961–2001 in Equatorial East Africa (Kenya, northern Tanzania) are studied at local scale using a 53 rain-gauge network and analysing six intra-seasonal characteristics (ISCs): the onset and end dates, the wet spells number and length, daily mean rainfall amount and the dry spells length. As compared to anomalously dry Long Rains, anomalously wet ones record earlier onsets, more wet spells with higher daily mean rainfall amounts (above 14 mm/day). For the Short Rains, the end date is also widely modulated across the rain gauge network, and daily mean rainfall amounts above (below) 10 mm/day are more (less) frequent during anomalously wet (dry) seasons. The differences in the number, length and daily mean rainfall amount of wet spells between anomalously wet and anomalously dry rainy seasons is also analysed in an ensemble of 24 sea surface temperature-forced runs of the ECHAM4.5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model. For the Long Rains, results are inconsistent between runs which suggests a lack of reproducibility of the ISCs in the model. For the Short Rains, the ISCs distributions between anomalously wet and anomalously dry years are significantly different in most of the runs/locations. In particular, daily mean rainfall amounts above 8 mm/day are more (less) frequent in the model during anomalously wet (dry) years.

Assessment of prediction and predictability of short rains over equatorial East Africa using a multi-model ensemble

In this study, the performance of dynamical seasonal forecast systems is evaluated for the prediction of short rain anomalies over equatorial East Africa. The evaluation is based on observational datasets and the Asia-Pacific Climate Center (APCC) Ocean–Atmosphere coupled multi-model ensemble (MME) retrospective forecasts (hindcasts). These forecast systems have different hindcast periods; here, we have selected common years from 1982 to 2005. The ensembles of individual models and their MME mean are evaluated. Hindcasts initialized on the 1st of August from each year alone are considered, as these are the most relevant to short rain predictions. The coupled climate model ensemble reproduces the spatial distribution of mean September-October-November (SON) rainfall and seasonal climate variations over equatorial East Africa with further improvement in MME mean. Individual coupled models and MME mean also show statistically significant skill in forecasting sea surface temperatures anomalies (SSTAs) over the western and eastern parts of the equatorial Indian Ocean, giving significant correlation at 99 % confidence level for Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). Moreover, five out of ten coupled models and MME mean show statistically significant skill in predicting equatorial East Africa short rains. The fidelity of hindcasts is further measured by anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and four models as well as MME mean show significant skill over East Africa. It is shown that the reproduction of the observed variability in the East African region is mainly due to a realistic relationship of East African rainfall with the Indian Ocean dipole. Overall, the skill of the dynamical models is attributed to the fact that slowly evolving SSTs are the primary source of predictability and to the fact that coupled climate models produce skillful predictions of SON SST anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean. This information opens the possibility of using readily available seasonal forecasts as skillful predictions of equatorial East Africa short rains.