Equatorial East Africa Research Articles

Highland forest dynamics across equatorial East Africa during the end of the African humid period

Tropical mountain ecosystems hold immense ecological and economic importance, yet they face disproportionate risks from shifting tropical climates. For example, present-day montane vegetation of East Africa is characterized by different plant species that grow in and are restricted to certain elevations due to environmental tolerances. As climate changes and temperature/rainfall zones move on mountains, these species must rapidly adjust their ranges or risk extinction.Paleoenvironmental records offer valuable insights into past climate and ecosystem dynamics, aiding predictions for ongoing climate change impacts. In particular, warming and wetting in tropical East Africa during the mid-Holocene resulted in both lowland and highland forest expansion. However, the relative impacts of rainfall and temperature change on montane ecosystems along with the influence of lowland forest expansion on montane communities is not completely understood. We use fossil pollen to study the vegetation changes in two lakes at different altitudes in the Rwenzori Mountains, Uganda: Lake Mahoma (Montane Forest belt) and Upper Kachope Lake (Afroalpine belt). Further, using the newly relaunched African Pollen Database and recent temperature reconstructions, we provide a regional synthesis of vegetation changes in the Rwenzori and then compare this with changes observed from other equatorial East African montane sites (particularly Mt Kenya).In the early to mid-Holocene in the Rwenzori Mountains, trees common today in lowland forests dominated, driven largely by warmer temperatures. After 4000 years ago (4ka), Afromontane forest trees along with grasses progressively replaced lowland trees. Not all sites experienced identical transitions. For instance, at Lake Rutundu on Mt Kenya at the same elevation as Lake Mahoma, bamboo expansion preceded Afromontane forest growth, likely influenced by variations in fire. Variance partitioning indicates that each site responded differently to changes in temperature and rainfall. Therefore, these site-specific ecological responses underscore the importance of considering biogeographic legacies as management strategies are developed, despite similarities in modern ecology.

Assessment of branched glycerol monoalkyl glycerol tetraether (brGMGT)-based paleothermometry in the 250,000-year sediment record of Lake Chala, equatorial East Africa

Branched glycerol monoalkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGMGTs), a relatively understudied group of bacterial membrane lipids structurally similar to branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs), appear to be strongly influenced by temperature in terrestrial settings. In surficial bottom sediments of East African lakes, the abundance of brGMGTs relative to the sum of brGMGTs and brGDGTs (%brGMGT) and brGMGT distribution are strongly related to local mean annual air temperature (MAAT), stimulating development of new paleothermometers. However, applications of these methods to lake-sediment records are currently lacking. Here we investigate brGMGT concentrations and distributions in 916 samples throughout the 250,000-year (250-kyr) sediment sequence from Lake Chala, a presently fresh and permanently stratified (meromictic) tropical crater lake. All seven previously identified brGMGTs occur abundantly, reflected in a relatively high average %brGMGT of 19%. BrGMGTs and brGDGTs concentrations throughout the sequence are strongly correlated (R = 0.83, p < 0.001), suggesting that their producers and/or associated ecological niches substantially overlap. Clear distinction can be made between brGMGTs produced predominantly in the bottom sediments (H1034a and H1034c) versus the anoxic lower water column (H1020a-c and H1034b). Although a 17-month monitoring study of Lake Chala suggested brGMGTs are primarily produced in the sediments, down-core data assign greater importance to aquatic production than previously estimated. Instead of reflecting temperature, %brGMGT variations showed greatest similarity to GDGT proxies reflecting lake depth and/or mixing regime. BrGMGT-based temperature models produce ambiguous reconstructions, showing little similarity to known global temperature trends or the brGDGT-based mean summer temperature (MST) reconstruction from the same sediments.

A Lake Record of Geomagnetic Secular Variations for the Last 23 ka From Lake Chala: Toward a Composite Directional Lake Record of the Earth's Magnetic Field for Equatorial East Africa

AbstractThe documentation and understanding of variations in the Earth's magnetic field through time is fundamental for several disciplines, but current geomagnetic models rely on datasets heavily biased toward the mid‐ and high northern latitudes. The African continent and surrounding islands and oceans are particularly underrepresented. Here, we present a new record of paleo‐secular variation (PSV) of the inclinations over the last 23 ka from Lake Chala, situated at 3°S near Mt Kilimanjaro in eastern equatorial Africa. This groundwater‐fed crater lake is characterized by a high sedimentation rate (ca. 1 cm/10 years) and a particularly well‐constrained age model based on 210Pb and 14C dating. The magnetic mineralogy of the sediments is tested with rock magnetic analyses. The Lake Chala inclination record shows four highs and lows over 20 ka and compares well with that of Lake Malawi (10°S) between 20 and 16.2 ka, and from 9.8 to 2.6 ka. This record is linked to PSV records at Lakes Victoria and Malawi using a sequence slotting technique to generate a composite PSV model for east Africa. Analyzed at best‐possible resolutions up to 200 years, the Lake Chala PSV record not only represents an important contribution to improve our understanding of local and global features of the Earth's magnetic field. It also expands the utility of paleomagnetism as a key tool for dating and correlation both for archeological sites throughout East Africa and the many volcanoes, active or dormant, of the East African Rift System.

Predictability of Rainfall over Equatorial East Africa in the ECMWF Ensemble Reforecasts on short to medium-range time scales

Abstract Despite the enormous potential of precipitation forecasts to save lives and property in Africa, low skill has limited their uptake. To assess the skill and improve the performance of the forecast, validation and postprocessing should continuously be carried out. Here, we evaluate the quality of reforecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts over Equatorial East Africa (EEA) against satellite and rain gauge observations for the period 2001–2018. 24-hour rainfall accumulations are analysed from short to medium-range time scales. Additionally, 48- and 120-hour rainfall accumulations were also assessed. The skill was assessed using an extended probabilistic climatology (EPC) derived from the observations. Results show that the reforecasts overestimate rainfall, especially during the rain seasons and over high-altitude areas. However, there is potential of skill in the raw forecasts up to 14-day lead-time. There is an improvement of up to 30% in Brier score/continuous rank probability score relative to EPC in most areas, especially the higher-altitude regions, decreasing with lead-time. Aggregating the reforecasts enhances the skill further, likely due to a reduction in timing mismatches. However, for some regions of the study domain, the predictive performance is worse than EPC, mainly due to biases. Postprocessing the reforecasts using isotonic distributional regression considerably improves skill, increasing the number of grid-points with positive Brier skill score (continuous rank probability score) by an average of 81% (91%) for lead-times 1–14 days ahead. Overall, the study highlights the potential of the reforecasts, the spatio-temporal variation in skill and benefit of postprocessing in EEA.

Checklist of the diatoms (Bacillariophyta) from Lake Naivasha, Kenya, with some historical notes.

Lake Naivasha is one of only two large freshwater lakes in the Eastern Rift Valley of Kenya, East Africa. Together with its satellite lakes Crescent Island Crater, Oloidien and Sonachi, it comprises a great variety of pelagic and benthic habitats for aquatic biota, and its sediment record represents a unique archive of past climate change and long-term ecosystem dynamics in equatorial East Africa. This is particularly so because local paleoenvironmental reconstructions can be checked against historical data on the composition of aquatic fauna and flora collected in Lake Naivasha since the early 20th century. Some of the most prominent biological proxies for reconstructing past changes in lakes are diatoms (Bacillariophyta), a group of unicellular autotrophic eukaryotes of which the siliceous skeletons (valves) preserve well in lake sediments and are good indicators for, among others, climate-driven changes in salinity. However, diatom taxonomy and species concepts have changed a lot in recent decades, making it sometimes difficult for non-taxonomists to know which species are concerned in different published studies. This paper provides the currently accepted taxonomic names of the 310 specific and infraspecific diatom taxa reported from Lake Naivasha and its satellite lakes to date, together with their synonyms used in literature concerning these lakes as well as other, commonly used synonyms. Further, a short overview is given of the history of diatom research conducted on materials from Lake Naivasha and its satellite lakes. The present checklist may facilitate the identification and interpretation aspects of future diatom studies on the wider Lake Naivasha ecosystem and on other East African lakes that are less well studied.

Hydroclimate Variability in the Equatorial Western Indian Ocean for the Last 250,000 Years

AbstractIndian Ocean sea surface temperatures impact precipitation across the basin through coupled ocean‐atmosphere responses to changes in climate. To understand the hydroclimate response over the western Indian Ocean and equatorial east Africa to different forcing mechanisms, we present four new proxy reconstructions from core VM19‐193 (2.98°N, 51.47°E) that span the last 250 ky. Sub‐surface water temperatures (Sub‐T; TEX86) show strong precessional (23 ky) variability that is primarily influenced by maximum incoming solar radiation (insolation) during the Northern Hemisphere spring season, likely indicating that local insolation dominates the upper water column at this tropical location over time. Leaf waxes, on the other hand, reflect two different precipitation signals: δ13Cwax (in phase with boreal fall insolation) is likely reflecting vegetation changes in response to local rainfall over east Africa, whereas δDprecip (primarily driven by boreal summer insolation) represents changes in regional circulation associated with the summer monsoon. Glacial‐interglacial changes in ocean temperatures support glacial shelf exposure over the Maritime Continent in the eastern Indian Ocean and the subsequent weakening of the Indian Walker Circulation as a mechanism driving 100 ky climate variability across the tropical Indo‐Pacific. Additionally, the 100 ky spectral power in δDprecip supports a basin‐wide weakening of summer monsoon circulation in response to glacial climates. Overall, the proxy records from VM19‐193 indicate that both precession and glacial‐interglacial cycles exert control over hydroclimate at this tropical location.

Trend and spatial-temporal variation of drought characteristics over equatorial East Africa during the last 120 years

Centennial drought characteristics in Equatorial East Africa (EEA) is investigated using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) derived from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) dataset. The spatial pattern of drought distribution, as well as drought duration, intensity and frequency, are analyzed for SPEI at a 3-month timescale for March-April-May (MAM) season. Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF), Mann-Kendall method (MK), and wavelet analyses are used to study drought’s spatial pattern, trend, and periodicity. The result of the principal component analysis returned six homogenous drought sub-regions. A low drought frequency characterizes EEA (&amp;lt;20%). The drought in the MAM season lasts between 2.2 and 2.8 months. Overall, the result showed a weak long-term drying trend for most parts of EEA that were significant in some sub-regions and insignificant in others. An increase in drought areal extent after the 1980s could be ascribed to the increase in potential evapotranspiration (PET) and is consistent with the negative trend in SPEI value over the six sub-regions. The apparent increase is mainly attributed to the increase in moderate and severe droughts area rather than extreme drought areas. The spectral analysis further reveals that inter-annual drought variability with periodicities less than 8 years dominates in all sub-regions of Equatorial East Africa, which is associated with the critical role of El-Niño in driving the drought variations in EEA.

Linkages between Madden–Julian oscillation and drought events over Kenya

Increased frequencies and intensities of extreme weather events have negatively impacted climate-sensitive socio-economic sectors in Kenya and larger Equatorial East Africa (EEA). Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) influence intra-seasonal weather variability over Kenya although less attention has been given to its effect on extreme weather events such as droughts and floods, which have increased in frequency and intensity. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) was used in this work as proxy data for rainfall to study the geographical distribution and circulation anomalies associated with MJOs and their impacts on extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are identified using the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI), based on sc-PDSI, 2013/2014 and 2017/2018 as the drought and flood years, respectively. The background power spectral analysis reveals that MJOs are more dominant during the March–May (MAM) season than other seasons. The variance analysis depicted that the maximum power of MJO-filtered OLR is cantered within the tropical Indian Ocean, maritime continent and the tropical Pacific Ocean. Upper tropospheric (200 hPa) wind signatures give a clear Matsuno-Gill-type circulation compared to the lower tropospheric wind flows. Thus, the signatures can be used to develop a dynamic MJO index for prediction purposes. There exists a weak direct relationship between MJO and sc-PDSI; however, the influence may result from its modulation of atmospheric circulation as illustrated by the wind and velocity potential patterns before and after the passage of the convective MJO phase.

Hydroclimate variability in the Madagascar and Southeast African summer monsoons at the Mid- to Late-Holocene transition

The 4.2 ka event at the Mid- to Late-Holocene transition is often regarded as one of the largest and best documented abrupt climate disturbances of the Holocene. The event is most clearly manifested in the Mediterranean and Middle East as a regional dry anomaly beginning abruptly at 4.26 kyr BP and extending until 3.97 kyr BP. Yet the impacts of this regional drought are often extended to other regions and sometimes globally. In particular, the nature and spatial extent of the 4.2 ka event in the tropics have not been established. Here, we present a new stalagmite stable isotope record from Anjohikely, northwest Madagascar. Growing between 5.22 and 2.00 kyr BP, stalagmite AK1 shows a hiatus between 4.31 and 3.93 kyr BP (±40 and ± 35 yrs), replicating a hiatus in another stalagmite from nearby Anjohibe, and therefore indicating a significant drying at the Mid- to Late-Holocene transition. This result is the opposite to wet conditions at the 8.2 ka event, suggesting fundamentally different forcing mechanisms. Dry conditions are also recorded in sediment cores in Lake Malawi, Lake Masoko and the Tatos Basin on Mauritius, also in the southeast African monsoon domain. However, no notable event is recorded at the northern (equatorial East Africa) and eastern (Rodrigues) peripheries of the monsoon domain, while a wet event is recorded in sediment cores at Lake Muzi and Mkhuze Delta to the south. The spatial pattern is largely consistent with the modern rainfall anomaly pattern associated a with weak Mozambique Channel Trough and a northerly austral summer Intertropical Convergence Zone position. Within age error, the observed peak climate anomalies overlap with the 4.2 ka event. However regional hydrological change consistently begins earlier than a 4.26 kyr BP event onset. Gradual hydrological change frequently begins around 4.5 kyr BP, raising doubt as to whether any coherent regional hydrological change is merely coincident with the 4.2 ka event or part of a global climatic anomaly.

A mid-troposphere perspective on the East African climate paradox

The East African climate paradox—a term framing the observed precipitation decline in the March–May (MAM) wet season of East Africa from roughly 1980–2010, yet an increase in future climates simulated by global climate models (GCMs)—mostly relies on data representing sea level. Here we add a mid-troposphere perspective by combining in-situ meteorological measurements at ∼6000 m a.s.l. from Africa’s highest mountain summit and a carefully selected subset of GCMs through a machine-learning link. Temporal trends of the resultant six weather types do support a drier mountain climate in the recent past and a moister one in the course of the 21st century, and a key to understanding these contrasting trends materializes from the new dominance of changes in weather type frequency in the future climate. Importantly, however, the results also suggest that the trend reversal requires a strong external climate forcing. Hence, the forcing strength should be considered more systematically in forthcoming studies, to challenge the question whether equatorial East Africa’s MAM climate will indeed become wetter in all plausible future scenarios.

Assessing improvement in the fifth‐generation ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis precipitation over East Africa

AbstractThis study aims to assess the performance of European Center for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Reanalysis fifth generation (ERA5) in terms of the progress made over its predecessor, ERA‐Interim, over East Africa (EA) in reproducing observed rainfall. The observed rainfall used as reference rainfall are Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) and Climate Research Unit Time Series (CRU‐TS). The performance of ERA5 to its predecessor is evaluated using root‐mean‐square error (RMSE), correlation, and bias. The reductions of wet bias from ERA‐Interim to ERA5 are 16.81–6.94% from June to September (JJAS), 31.99–19.33% from September to December (SOND), and 29.24–17.69% from December to February (DJF) over most of EA relative to CRU‐TS. Similar reductions in the wet bias relative to GPCC are also noted. Spatially, notable reductions are observed over western Ethiopia, Sudan Republic, South Sudan, and Uganda. The decreasing trends revealed in the bias of seasonal ERA5 rainfall relative to CRU‐TS and GPCC are attributed to an increase in the number and quality of assimilated observations in ERA5 over its predecessors. RMSE of ERA5 rainfall relative to the two reference rainfall and correlations with the two reference rainfall are consistent with spatial and temporal features captured in the bias. Specifically, the correlation of the monthly time series of ERA5 ranges from 0.90 with CRU‐TS over equatorial EA (EEA) to 0.98 with GPCC over southern EA (SEA) in contrast to that of ERA‐Interim which ranges from 0.84 with CRU‐TS over EEA to 0.93 with CRU‐TS over SEA. However, the wet bias in ERA5 along the Great Rift Valley remained the same as in ERA‐Interim whereas spatial correlation of ERA5 with the two reference rainfall is relatively weaker than that of ERA‐Interim.

Depositional history of Lake Chala (Mt. Kilimanjaro, equatorial East Africa) from high-resolution seismic stratigraphy

Sediments deposited in Lake Chala (Kenya/Tanzania) constitute a high-resolution archive of past climate and environmental change in equatorial East Africa spanning two glacial-interglacial cycles. To correctly interpret the proxy records it contains, it is crucial to understand the evolution of lacustrine sedimentation in this volcanic crater basin. Building on previous seismic stratigraphic analysis by Moernaut et al. (2010) of a dense grid of 37 km high-resolution seismic reflection profiles with up to 270 ms two-way travel time (ca. 210 m depth) of sub-bottom penetration, this study presents a seismic-based reconstruction of the complete depositional history of Lake Chala as well as a first-order age model for the major documented stages in lake evolution. The seismic stratigraphic sequence comprises 16 distinct and finely-stratified units (U1-U16, youngest to oldest), grouped into five major depositional stages. Stage I (U16, ca. 249-212 ka) marks the initiation of sedimentation in an originally ring-shaped depositional area surrounding two central tuff cones emerging from the basin floor. Stage II (U15-U12, ca. 212-114 ka) represents the onset of basinwide sedimentation above the tuff cones, implying a gradual rise in lake depth and shift to more strictly hemipelagic sedimentation. Stage III (U11-U8, ca. 114-97 ka) represents the development of a relatively flat lake floor during a period of significantly reduced lake depth. Stage IV (U7-U4, ca. 97–20.5 ka) is again characterized by largely undisturbed hemipelagic sedimentation under mostly high lake-depth conditions. Stage V (U3-U1, 20.5 ka BP to Present) represents the establishment of the present-day, very broad and flat basin floor under fluctuating lake level. Reassessing the Moernaut et al. (2010) suggestion of a minor disconformity at ca. 100 m sub-bottom depth, we here interpret this seismic feature as a thick turbidite related to a mass wasting event. Consequently we can affirm continuity of lacustrine sedimentation in the depocenter of Lake Chala throughout the past ca. 250,000 years.

Validation of Satellite Rainfall Estimates over Equatorial East Africa

Abstract Rain gauge data sparsity over Africa is known to impede the assessments of hydrometeorological risks and of the skill of numerical weather prediction models. Satellite rainfall estimates (SREs) have been used as surrogate fields for a long time and are continuously replaced by more advanced algorithms and new sensors. Using a unique daily rainfall dataset from 36 stations across equatorial East Africa for the period 2001–18, this study performs a multiscale evaluation of gauge-calibrated SREs, namely, IMERG, TMPA, CHIRPS, and MSWEP (v2.2 and v2.8). Skills were assessed from daily to annual time scales, for extreme daily precipitation, and for TMPA and IMERG near-real-time (NRT) products. Results show that 1) the SREs reproduce the annual rainfall pattern and seasonal rainfall cycle well, despite exhibiting biases of up to 9%; 2) IMERG is the best for shorter temporal scales while MSWEPv2.2 and CHIRPS perform best at the monthly and annual time steps, respectively; 3) the performance of all the SREs varies spatially, likely due to an inhomogeneous degree of gauge calibration, with the largest variation seen in MSWEPv2.2; 4) all the SREs miss between 79% (IMERG-NRT) and 98% (CHIRPS) of daily extreme rainfall events recorded by the rain gauges; 5) IMERG-NRT is the best regarding extreme event detection and accuracy; and 6) for return values of extreme rainfall, IMERG, and MSWEPv2.2 have the least errors while CHIRPS and MSWEPv2.8 cannot be recommended. The study also highlights improvements of IMERG over TMPA, the decline in performance of MSWEPv2.8 compared to MSWEPv2.2, and the potential of SREs for flood risk assessment over East Africa.

Seasonal and multi-annual variation in the abundance of isoprenoid GDGT membrane lipids and their producers in the water column of a meromictic equatorial crater lake (Lake Chala, East Africa)

Isoprenoid glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (isoGDGTs) are membrane lipids of Archaea. Organic biomarker proxies associated with these lipids, such as the TEX86 paleothermometer and Branched and Isoprenoid Tetraether (BIT) index, are often used in paleoenvironmental reconstructions for the marine environment, but their general applicability in lacustrine settings is hampered by limited understanding of the biological sources and environmental drivers influencing isoGDGT production. To validate the use of isoGDGT proxies in lakes, we studied the occurrence of isoGDGTs in Lake Chala, a permanently stratified (meromictic) crater lake in equatorial East Africa. We analyzed the abundance and distribution of isoGDGTs in 17 depth profiles of suspended particulate matter (SPM) collected monthly between September 2013 and January 2015, and compared this with the abundance and composition of archaea based on 16S rRNA gene and quantitative PCR analysis. Both isoGDGTs and archaeal abundance in the SPM were exceptionally low throughout the study period. In the oxygenated part of the water column, higher fractional abundances of crenarchaeol are matched by a predominance of the ammonia-oxidizing Thaumarchaeota I.1b that are known to produce this GDGT, whereas deep anoxic water layers are characterized by high fractional abundances of GDGT-0 as well as the anaerobic heterotrophic Group C3 MCG Bathyarchaea and specific euryarchaeotal methanogens. Analysis of intact polar lipid (IPL) isoGDGTs using SPM depth profiles from three months representing distinct seasons during the study period revealed the presence of several IPLs of GDGT-0 in the anoxic lower water column, which are rarely found in natural settings. IPL GDGT-0 with a phosphatidylglycerol (PG-), monohexose-phosphatidylglycerol (MH-PG-) and dihexose-phosphatidylglycerol (DH-PG-) head-group was typically only present just above the lake bottom at 90 m depth and probably reflect specific communities of anaerobic archaea. We also determined the flux and distribution of isoGDGTs in settling particles collected monthly between November 2006 and January 2015 from a sediment trap suspended at 35 m water depth to assess seasonal and inter-annual variability in surface-water isoGDGT production, and compared this with the temporal distribution of isoGDGTs in the 25,000-year long sediment record from Lake Chala. Monthly variation of isoGDGTs in the 98-month settling-particles record did not show a strong annual pattern related to seasonal water-column mixing and stratification, likely because the oxycline was regularly situated below sediment-trap depth. Episodes of high GDGT-0 concentrations relative to crenarchaeol in the settling particles can therefore be linked to periods of exceptionally shallow oxycline depth, which suppresses the thaumarchaeotal bloom. During such intervals, TEX86-based paleotemperatures are not reliable because isoGDGT input from other archaeal sources disproportionally influences TEX86 values and creates a cold-temperature bias. Additionally, the abundance of the crenarchaeol isomer relative to crenarchaeol (f[CREN']) gradually increases during such episodes of high GDGT-0/crenarchaeol ratio, suggesting increasing dominance of Group I.1b over Group I.1a Thaumarchaeota, and might prove a good marker for prolonged shallow-oxycline conditions. Most importantly, the associated near-absence of crenarchaeol during times of strong upper-water-column stratification results in high BIT-index values. We propose that this suppression mechanism may be the principal driver of BIT-index variation in the sediment record of Lake Chala, and the main source of observed congruence between the BIT index and climate-driven lake-level variation on long time scales.

Plastome and Nuclear Phylogenies of Dwarf Mistletoes (Arceuthobium: Viscaceae)

Abstract—Dwarf mistletoes are a lineage of morphologically-reduced stem parasites inhabiting Pinaceae and Cupressaceae throughout the northern hemisphere and equatorial East Africa. Though diagnosable by a suite of morphological traits, phylogenetic knowledge of species relationships has been limited to studies employing either comprehensive taxonomic sampling of one or two genes, or more sequence data from a limited number of individuals. We used data from genome skimming to assemble 3kb of the nuclear ribosomal cistron and up to 45kb of the plastome to clarify the phylogenetic root of the genus, monophyly of species, and relationships among infraspecific taxa. Genomic differentiation among terminal taxa was variable; however, we found strong support for reciprocally monophyletic New World and Old World lineages, congruent nrDNA and plastome topologies at the species level and below, and monophyly of most taxonomic sections and species. Plastome gene content was stable across the genus with minimal pseudogenization or loss, as in other hemiparasites, with the notable exception ofcemA. These findings form the basis of our re-evaluation of historical biogeographical hypotheses, species- and subspecies-level taxonomy, and plastome evolution inArceuthobium.More broadly, this work provides a foundation for future clade-focused comparative and biosystematics studies ofArceuthobium.

The impacts of warming on rapidly retreating high-altitude, low-latitude glaciers and ice core-derived climate records

Alpine glaciers in the low- and mid-latitudes respond more quickly than large polar ice sheets to changes in temperature, precipitation, cloudiness, humidity, and radiation. Many high-altitude glaciers are monitored by ground observations, aerial photography, and satellite-borne sensors. Regardless of latitude and elevation, nearly all nonpolar glaciers and ice caps are undergoing mass loss, which compromises the records of past climate preserved within them. Almost without exception, the retreat of these ice fields is persistent, and a very important driver is the recent warming of the tropical troposphere and oceans. Here we present data on the decrease in the surface area of four glaciers from low- to mid-latitude mountainous regions: the Andes of Peru and northern Bolivia, equatorial east Africa, equatorial Papua, Indonesia, and the western Tibetan Plateau. Climate records based on oxygen isotopic ratios (δ 18 O) measured in ice cores drilled from several glaciers in these regions reveal that the records from elevations below ~6000 m above sea level have been substantially modified by seasonal melting and the movement of meltwater through porous upper firn layers. Fortunately, δ 18 O records recovered from higher altitude sites still contain well-preserved seasonal variations to the surface; however, the projected increase in the rate of atmospheric warming implies that climate records from higher elevation glaciers will eventually also be degraded. A long-term ice core collection program on the Quelccaya ice cap in Peru, Earth's largest tropical ice cap, illustrates that the deterioration of its climate record is concomitant with the increase in mid-troposphere temperatures. The melting ice and resulting growth of proglacial lakes presents an imminent hazard to nearby communities. The accelerating melting of glaciers, if sustained, ensures the eventual loss of unique and irreplaceable climate histories, as well as profound economic, agricultural, and cultural impacts on local communities. • Rising global temperature is an important driver of tropical glacier retreat. • As tropical glaciers melt, the unique climate records they preserve are disappearing. • Glacier lake outbursts in southern Peru have created hazards for local communities. • Ablation of ice from the glacier summit is observed in three low-latitude regions.

Drivers and Subseasonal Predictability of Heavy Rainfall in Equatorial East Africa and Relationship with Flood Risk

AbstractEquatorial East Africa (EEA) suffers from significant flood risks. These can be mitigated with preemptive action; however, currently available early warnings are limited to a few days’ lead time. Extending warnings using subseasonal climate forecasts could open a window for more extensive preparedness activity. However, before these forecasts can be used, the basis of their skill and relevance for flood risk must be established. Here we demonstrate that subseasonal forecasts are particularly skillful over EEA. Forecasts can skillfully anticipate weekly upper-quintile rainfall within a season, at lead times of 2 weeks and beyond. We demonstrate the link between the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and extreme rainfall events in the region, and confirm that leading forecast models accurately represent the EEA teleconnection to the MJO. The relevance of weekly rainfall totals for fluvial flood risk in the region is investigated using a long record of streamflow from the Nzoia River in western Kenya. Both heavy rainfall and high antecedent rainfall conditions are identified as key drivers of flood risk, with upper-quintile weekly rainfall shown to skillfully discriminate flood events. We additionally evaluate GloFAS global flood forecasts for the Nzoia basin. Though these are able to anticipate some flooding events with several weeks lead time, analysis suggests action based on these would result in a false alarm more than 50% of the time. Overall, these results build on the scientific evidence base that supports the use of subseasonal forecasts in EEA, and activities to advance their use are discussed.

Tephrostratigraphy of the eastern Lake Victoria Basin including the Nyanza Rift, Kenya: Building a stratigraphic and chronological framework for modern human evolution

Modern human evolution in Africa over the last ∼300 kyr is complex, with a variety of behavioral and biological changes appearing at different times and places. Explaining this pattern, as well as its relationship to paleoenvironmental circumstances, requires chronological and stratigraphic control of the paleoanthropological record. This study employs tephrostratigraphy, the chemical correlation of volcanic ashes (tephras), to provide chronostratigraphic context for modern human evolution in the Middle Pleistocene–Holocene of equatorial East Africa. This work geographically expands the eastern Lake Victoria Basin tephrostratigraphic framework over an area >16,000 km2. Geochemical comparisons show that most eastern Lake Victoria Basin tephras are derived from the volcanoes of the Central Kenyan Rift. New tephra correlations in the eastern Lake Victoria Basin incorporate 11 terrestrial localities throughout the Nyanza Rift as well as the V95–1P sediment core from the Ugandan waters of Lake Victoria. The spatial expansion of the eastern Lake Victoria Basin tephrostratigraphy also extends the previously documented ∼94–36 ka chronology of the tephra sequence to encompass most of the last ∼240 kyr. Tephra correlations presented here provide new ages for previously excavated, but undated, archaeological sites including Songhor (GqJe-1) = >94 ka, Simbi (GrJe-2) = 45–36 ka, and Muguruk (GqJc-1) where the correlation of a ∼49–36 ka tuff may help constrain the age for some or all of the site’s multiple archaeological levels. The tephrostratigraphy presented here thus constitutes a necessary step in expanding a Middle Pleistocene–Holocene chronostratigraphic framework across equatorial East Africa, which is fundamental to future studies on modern human evolution and behavioral change through time.

Influence of convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin waves on March-May precipitation over East Africa

Convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin waves (CCEKWs) are those types of equatorially trapped disturbances that propagate eastward and are among the most common intra-seasonal oscillations in the tropics. There exists two-way feedback between the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and these equatorially trapped disturbances. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) was utilized as a proxy for deep convection. For CCEKWs, the modes are located over the West Atlantic, equatorial West Africa, and the Indian Ocean. The influence of other circulations and climate dynamics is studied for finding other drivers of climate within East Africa. The results show a positive relationship between Indian and Atlantic Oceans Sea Surface Temperatures and March-May rainfall over equatorial East Africa over the period of 1980 to 2010. This influence is driven by the Walker circulation and anomalous moisture influx enhanced by winds. Composite analysis reveals strong lower-tropospheric westerlies during the active phase of the CCKWs activities over Equatorial East Africa. The winds are in the opposite direction with the upper-tropospheric winds, which are easterlies. Singular Value Decomposition shows a strong coupling interaction between rainfall over equatorial East Africa and CCKWs. This study concludes that Kelvin waves are not the main factors that influence rainfall during the rainy season. Previous studies show that the main influencing factors are ITCZ, El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and tropical anticyclones that borders the African continent. However, CCKWs are a significant factor during the dry seasons.

Climate-human-landscape interaction in the eastern foothills of Mt. Kilimanjaro (equatorial East Africa) during the last two millennia

The Mt. Kilimanjaro region is known for its long history of intensive agriculture, but the temporal extent of human activity and its impact on the regional ecosystem are not well known. In this study, climate-human-landscape interactions during the past ~2200 years were examined using climate and vegetation proxies extracted from the continuous and high-resolution sediment record of Lake Chala. Ancient-to-modern regional human activity is documented against a backdrop of long-term vegetation dynamics in the low-elevation savanna woodland southeast of Mt. Kilimanjaro and riparian forest within Chala crater. During prolonged dry periods (~1170–1300 CE), succulent dry crater forest expanded relative to the moist lakeshore forest. The savanna landscape surrounding Chala crater was relatively stable through time, except that savanna grasses were stimulated by higher precipitation, consistent with the fuel-limited fire regime evidenced in the charcoal record. Expansion of subalpine ericaceous vegetation and a general decline in Afromontane forest taxa on Mt. Kilimanjaro after 550 CE may reflect a lowering of its upper forest line. The earliest robust signature of human influence on regional vegetation involves an increase in ruderal (weedy) plant taxa around 1100 CE, possibly associated with the development of Chagga homegardens and associated agroforestry in the submontane forest zone. A first hint of cereal agriculture (likely sorghum) is observed around 1550 CE, followed by a more robust signature from 1780 CE onwards which likely reflects the start of lowland irrigation agriculture. From 1780 CE we also find the first undisputed appearance of maize, introduced to East Africa about a century earlier.