Human mammary epithelial cell (HMEC) cultures encounter a stress-associated barrier termed stasis, during which most cells adopt a senescence-like phenotype. From these cultures, rare variants emerge from the basal epithelial population, re-initiating growth. Variants exhibit pre-malignant properties, including an aberrant epigenetic program that enables continued proliferation and acquisition of genetic changes. Following oncogenic transformation, variants produce tumors that recapitulate the histopathological characteristics of metaplastic breast cancer (MBC), a rare subtype characterized by squamous and mesenchymal differentiation. Using the conventional serum-free HMEC culture system, we probed the capacity for phenotypic plasticity inherent to basal epithelial cell populations from human breast tissue as they navigated stasis and emerged as variant populations. We observed robust activation of a TGF-β-dependent epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) program in basal epithelial cells during stasis, followed by subsequent attenuation of this program in emerging variants. Inhibiting the TGF-β pathway or depleting the EMT regulators Snail or Slug allowed basal epithelial cells to collectively bypass stasis, demonstrating that cellular dysfunction and arrest resulting from TGF-β and EMT activation are central to this in vitro barrier. The spontaneous emergence of variants from stasis cultures was associated with a restricted EMT trajectory, which diverted cells away from a complete mesenchymal state characterized by irreversible growth arrest, and instead limited variants to epithelial and intermediate EMT states associated with greater proliferative capacity and stemness. Epigenetic mechanisms, which contributed to the dysregulated growth control characteristic of the variant phenotype, also contributed to the constrained EMT program in variants. By overcoming the cellular dysfunction and growth arrest resulting from TGF-β and EMT activation, variants exhibited increased oncogenic transformation efficiency compared to pre-stasis basal epithelial cells. Inhibiting the TGF-β pathway prior to stasis significantly reduced EMT in the basal epithelial population, alleviated selective pressure driving variant emergence, and enhanced oncogenic transformation efficiency, resulting in tumors with markedly diminished metaplastic differentiation. This study reveals how adaptive EMT reprogramming governs basal epithelial cell fate decisions and contributes to the development of MBC progenitors by restricting access to terminal mesenchymal states that induce growth arrest and, instead, favoring intermediate states with enhanced tumorigenic potential.