Crisis Episodes Research Articles

Time-frequency connectedness between food commodities: New implications for portfolio diversification

This study examines the time-frequency connectedness of food commodities (cereals, dairy, food, meat, vegetable oil, and sugar) in the Food and Agriculture Organization's world food indices. With a monthly-frequency dataset covering February 1990 to October 2021, we utilise the returns spillover index approach of Baruník and Křehlík (2018). The results are robust to the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) connectedness approach. The findings explicate that food commodities are highly connected in the short- and long-term horizons. The dynamic total connectedness varies from 15% to 80% in the short term, 1% to 70%, in the medium-term, and 1% to 75% in the long-term, with high fluctuations in notable crisis periods. Contagious returns spillovers between food commodities are propagated by vegetable oil. Diversification and safe-haven properties of food commodities are consistently found in the meat market across tranquil and exuberant trading periods, respectively. The safe-haven role of sugar in recent episodes of financial crises is highlighted by our findings. The economic, policy, and portfolio implications of our results are discussed.

Financial fragility and credit risk: A simulation model

Financial and economic crises are not always the same. It is important to understand why some episodes of crisis generate prolonged and systemic recessions. Developing the Financial Instability Hypothesis, Hyman Minsky introduced the idea that in periods of stability, financial actors tend to increase their risk exposure, moving from a stable hedge-dominated structure to an unstable one, characterized by speculative and ultra-speculative (Ponzi) financial positions: hence, stability turns out being destabilizing. Starting from the three different relationships introduced by Minsky (income–debt–hedge, speculative and Ponzi) for financial units, we involve a simple partial equilibrium agent-based model in which firms, the banking sector, the real and financial sides of the economy, interact. This theoretic framework is used as computational laboratory to extend the migration rates open system modelling based on the E(ntry)–S(tay)–L(eave) processes by considering the economic system, the business cycle and with attention to so-called zombie-firms.

Impact of sickle cell disease in shoulder arthroplasty: a matched cohort analysis

Sickle cell disease (SCD) is a genetic disorder of abnormal hemoglobin synthesis that is known to cause glenohumeral avascular necrosis (AVN). Little has been published on the use of shoulder arthroplasty (SA) for the treatment of glenohumeral AVN in SCD. We report on the clinical and radiographic results and postoperative complications following SA in the patient cohort. A retrospective review was performed identifying 17 primary SAs (9 hemiarthroplasties, 7 anatomic total SAs, and 1 reverse total SA) in patients with a confirmed diagnosis of SCD and a minimum of 2-year follow-up. This cohort was matched (1:2) according to age, sex, body mass index, type of prosthesis, and year of surgery with patients who had undergone hemiarthroplasty or total SA for osteoarthritis (OA) or reverse total SA for cuff tear arthropathy. Outcomes included the visual analog scale (VAS) for pain, American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons score, range of motion, and strength measurements in forward elevation (FE), external rotation (ER), and internal rotation (IR). Our cohort included 9 (52.9%) men with a mean age of 43yr. The average follow-up time was 5.9yr. In patients with SCD, SA provided significant improvements in VAS pain (9.1-3.8; P<.001), FE (95°-128°; P<.001), ER (24°-38°; P<.001), IR score (3.2-5.2; P<.001), FE strength (4.2-4.8; P<.001), ER strength (4.1-4.7; P<.001), IR strength (4.1-4.7; P<.001), and American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons scores (48.6-73.5; P<.001). When compared to the matched cohort, the SCD group demonstrated higher preoperative (9.1 vs. 3.8; P<.001) and postoperative VAS scores (3.8 vs. 1.3; P<.001). Other clinical outcomes demonstrated no significant differences. There were 5 (29%) complications, 2 (11.8%) episodes of sickle cell crisis, and 3 (18%) reoperations in the SCD cohort. When compared to the matched cohort, there were no statistical differences with respect to complications (29% vs. 12%; P=.140) or reoperations (18% vs. 12%; P=.387). SA is an effective treatment modality for glenohumeral AVN in patients with SCD. Patients may expect improvements in pain, function, motion, and strength. However, final postoperative pain relief may be less than those treated with SA without SCD. Unique perioperative management is necessary to mitigate the risk of postoperative sickle cell crises.

Association between periodontal inflamed surface area and serum acute phase biomarkers in patients with sickle cell anemia

ObjectivesThe aim of the present cross-sectional study was to investigate the association between periodontal inflamed surface area (PISA) and serum inflammatory biomarkers in patients with sickle cell anemia. DesignPatients with sickle cell anemia (n = 80) and systemically healthy individuals (n = 80) were enrolled in the study. Crisis episodes were recorded and blood samples were collected from patients with sickle cell anemia. Clinical periodontal parameters and PISA values were calculated from all patients. Ferritin and high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels were analyzed biochemically. ResultsIn sickle cell anemia group, presence of periodontitis (p < 0.001) was more frequent than periodontal health (p < 0.001). All clinical periodontal recordings and PISA values were higher in the sickle cell anemia group compared to controls (p < 0.001). Patients with PISA > 776 mm² had 6.06-fold greater chances of having hs-CRP levels above 10 mg/L (OR = 6.06; 95 % CI: 1.9–19.26) and had 31.41-fold greater chances of having ferritin levels above 1000 ng/L (OR = 31.41; 95 % CI: 6.62–149.16). Also, they had 3.27-fold greater risk of having crisis frequency above three times per year (OR = 3.27; 95 % CI: 1.05–10.23) after adjusting for confounders. ConclusionIn patients with sickle cell anemia, positive association was evident between PISA values and serum acute phase biomarkers levels as well as the frequency of acute painful crisis. Patients with increased inflammatory burden may have a higher likelihood of developing periodontitis in the presence of sickle cell anemia. PISA value could be a candidate disease activity indicator in patients with an underlying hematological condition.

Asia’s financial interconnectedness: Evolution, implications, and insights from past crises

Past crisis episodes have illustrated the interplay of macroeconomic and financial conditions, including the presence of harmful macrofinancial feedback effects. Meanwhile, financial markets have become increasingly connected and economic and financial cycles more synchronized over time. Against the backdrop of past financial crises and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, we document and analyze trends in Asia’s financial interconnectedness over the past 3 decades, as well as its possible role in predicting financial crises. Employing a vector-autoregressive model and a panel probit regression, we find that financial interconnectedness increased across Asia and the Pacific, being particularly pronounced during past crises, including the present COVID-19 pandemic. We also find that increased interconnectedness is strongly and positively associated with the probability of crisis onset.

Information asymmetry, risk aversion and R&D subsidies: effect-size heterogeneity and policy conundrums

ABSTRACT Drawing on the theory of contracts and Schumpeterian models of innovation, we demonstrate that information asymmetry and risk aversion are conducive to effect-size heterogeneity and sub-optimal allocation of R&D subsidies. Utilising an unbalanced panel of 43,650 British firms from 1998 to 2012 and an entropy balancing methodology, we find that R&D subsidies are less likely to generate additionality effects when: (a) firms are larger, older, or more R&D-intensive; and (b) investment in basic research or during crisis episodes is considered. We also report that over 85% of the subsidies are allocated to large, old and R&D-intensive firms that do not deliver additional R&D investment. Our findings reveal a policy conundrum: the case for R&D subsidies is stronger during economic downturns, when R&D investment is in basic research and when firm age, size and R&D intensity reflect success in converting R&D investment into innovative product lines; but the subsidy is less likely to increase business R&D under these conditions.

Covid-19 and The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Quantitative Easing Indonesia

The basis for this research is to examine the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Indonesian financial markets and the dynamics of monetary policy. Focus on monetary policy conducted by Bank Indonesia regarding Quantitative Easing . The study was conducted using balance sheet information from a sample of 38 private foreign exchange banks in Indonesia to then find out whether policies have an effect on " loan growth ", and how the response to bank loan growth is in responding to the crisis episode caused by the COVID-19 pandemic . The data is taken from the first quarter of 2019 to the second quarter of 2021. Using panel data, a cross section of thirty-eight banks and time series data . This research found. First, the securities of Bank Indonesia conducted Quantitative Easing at the beginning of the year, until September 2020 amounting to Rp. 666 trillion resulted in an increase in total banking assets. Second, the Covid-19 factor has become a significant negative factor for credit growth amid the QE policies that have been carried out by Bank Indonesia. Third, the total bank deposit has a negative correlation with the rate of credit growth but is not significant. Finally, the overall analysis of this research shows that QE (Quantitative Easing) has a small impact on loan growth ( loan growth ) even though it has included the bank health factor ( Bank Health ) which represents the trust factor in the banking system.

The Effect of Improved Nursing Education on 30-day Readmissions in Sickle Cell Patients

Patients with sickle cell disease [1] have episodes of crisis that manifest as severe episodic experiences leading to multiple hospitalizations and recurrent readmissions for acute attacks and routine care [2]. In-hospital mortality is higher for patients who are readmitted versus those who are not. The estimated cost of care annually for the 100,000 patients with SCD in the United States exceeds $1.1 billion just from hospitalizations [3]. Readmissions affect the cost of healthcare in the US, and according to the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality [4], readmission costs are higher than initial admissions. This project aimed to increase nurses’ knowledge in the care of sickle cell patients at a facility in Central New Jersey and decrease the readmission of patients with sickle cell, leading to better care outcomes.

Public debt management and private financial development

In several developing countries, high and rising public debt is an important source of vulnerability. Strengthening debt management is a priority, but its effects on domestic economies have been hardly analyzed. This paper asks whether better public debt management could have spillover effects on the private sector, leading to more (and more stable) private capital flows and domestic credit. This is a relevant question in a context of financial deepening and increasing private capital inflows, which could be prone to episodes of bonanza, sudden stops and crises. Our results, based on a sample of developing countries, show positive spillover effects from better public debt management to private capital inflows and domestic financial deepening.

Impact of acute hyperglycemic crisis episode on survival in individuals with diabetic foot ulcer using a machine learning approach.

ObjectiveThe outcome of DFUs concomitant with HCE remains unknown. This study aimed to investigate mortality rates and identify risk factors of mortality in patients with DFUs-HCE.Methods27 inpatients with DFUs-HCE were retrospectively enrolled in a cohort design, they were compared to 93 inpatients with DFUs in a city designated emergency center, between January 2016 and January 2021. After a 6-year followed-up, clinical characteristic, amputation and survival rates were compared. Extreme gradient boosting was further used to explore the relative importance of HCE and other risk factors to all-cause mortality in DFUs.ResultsPatients with DFUs-HCE were more likely to havedementia, acute kidney injury and septic shock, whereas DFUs were more likely to have diabetic peripheral neuropathy and ulcer recurrence (P<0.05). No significant difference was observed on the amputation rate and diabetes duration. Both Kaplan-Meier curves and adjusted Cox proportional model revealed that DFUs-HCE was associated with a higher mortality compared with DFUs (P<0.05). HCE significantly increased the risk of mortality in patients with DFUs (hazard ratio, 1.941; 95% CI 1.018-3.700; P = 0.044) and was independent from other confounding factors (age, sex, diabetes duration, Wagner grades and Charlson Comorbidity Index). The XGBoost model also revealed that HCE was one of the most important risk factors associated with all-cause mortality in patients with DFUs.ConclusionsDFUs-HCE had significantly lower immediate survival rates (first 1-6 month) than DFUs alone. HCE is an important risk factor for death in DFUs patients.

P-026: FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH RENAL DYSFUNCTION AMONG CHILDREN WITH SICKLE CELL DISEASE

Purpose: Sickle cell nephropathy is a major complication of sickle cell disease and microalbuminuria is an early predictor of renal damage. Hence it is important to study the prevalence of renal dysfunction and its associated clinical, biochemical, and nutritional factors, benefitting patients in early identification and appropriate intervention thus, preventing the renal complications and associated morbidity. Materials and methods: A cross sectional study was conducted considering a total of 163 patients between 5-20 years, with SCD (homozygous) of either sex, diagnosed using HPLC attending outpatient clinic in their steady state for routine clinical care at a tertiary care hospital. Patients with history of blood transfusion within 2 weeks or in acute crisis or febrile illness were excluded from the study. Random spot urine sample was used for estimation of microalbuminuria by immunoturbidimetry method. Demographic details, clinical, biochemical, and nutritional parameters of each were recorded, analysed and compared. Microalbuminuria was said to be present if urine albumin creatinine ratio was between 30-300 mg/gm urine creatinine and value more than 300 mg/gm of urine creatinine was labelled as macroalbuminuria. A positive screening test was repeated twice with an early morning urine sample before labelling patient as having microalbuminuria. eGFR estimation was done using modified schwartz formula. Results: Out of total 163 patients (5-20 years), majority (32.52%) were in the age group of 6.1-9 years followed by 5-6 years (31.29%). Male female ratio was 1.3:1. Mean BMI was 14.67 ± 2.32. Mean VOC episodes and mean number of blood transfusions were 3.25 ± 2.91 and 3.23 ± 4.39 respectively. 3 patients had macroalbuminuria (1.84%), microalbuminuria was found in 24 patients (14.72%) while 83.44% patients were normal. 71.8% patients had normal eGFR, 18.4% had hyperfiltration while 9.8% had mild decrease in eGFR. The mean age was significantly higher in children with microalbuminuria than in those without microalbuminuria (11.69 ± 3.86 vs 8.55 ± 3.59 years; P=0.001), youngest patient being 6-year-old. Amongst positive patients, 66.67% were males and 33.33% were females. However, no significant correlation was found between gender and microalbuminuria (P= 0.293). 70.8% of positive patients had ≥3 episodes of vaso-occlusive crisis during their lifetime (P= 0.028) which was found to be statistically significant. Blood pressure taken at first visit were within normal limits for all the patients. 75% patients were already on hydroxyurea at the time of enrolment. 16.67% patients with microalbuminuria had hyperfiltration, 12.5% had mild decrease in eGFR while 70.83% had normal eGFR. No significant correlation was found between patient’s eGFR, nutritional status, blood transfusion frequencies, acute febrile illness episodes or any laboratory parameters with microalbuminuria. Conclusion: Age and frequent episodes of vaso-occlusive crises were found to be major factors associated with occurrence of microalbuminuria. These results confirm the need for early screening of microalbuminuria in patients with sickle cell disease and will be helpful in designing target strategy for early identification and introduction of appropriate timely intervention (drugs like ACE inhibitors) so that long term renal complications can be prevented. The authors do not declare any conflict of interest

Cardiovascular consequences of sickle cell disease.

Sickle cell disease (SCD) is an inherited blood disorder caused by a single point mutation within the beta globin gene. As a result of this mutation, hemoglobin polymerizes under low oxygen conditions causing red blood cells to deform, become more adhesive, and increase in rigidity, which affects blood flow dynamics. This process leads to enhanced red blood cell interactions with the endothelium and contributes to vaso-occlusion formation. Although traditionally defined as a red blood cell disorder, individuals with SCD are affected by numerous clinical consequences including stroke, painful crisis episodes, bone infarctions, and several organ-specific complications. Elevated cardiac output, endothelium activation along with the sickling process, and the vaso-occlusion events pose strains on the cardiovascular system. We will present a review of the cardiovascular consequences of sickle cell disease and show connections with the vasculopathy related to SCD. We will also highlight biophysical properties and engineering tools that have been used to characterize the disease. Finally, we will discuss therapies for SCD and potential implications on SCD cardiomyopathy.

Comparative effectiveness of adding Omega-3 or Vitamin D to standard therapy in preventing and treating episodes of painful crisis in pediatric sickle cell patients.

Sickle Cell Anemia (SCA), also called the Sickle Cell Disease (SCD), is an inherited hematological disorder characterized by a syndrome of acute anemia and a painful crisis. The sickling hemoglobin, Hgb-S causes viscosity and inflammation of blood vessels. Eventually, the red blood cells get eliminated from the circulation process, which leads to hemolytic anemia. This study examined the comparative effectiveness of supplementation of Omega-3 or vitamin-D to standard therapy (hydroxyurea + Ibuprofen) used for prevention and treatment of pain crises in pediatric patients living with SCD. 165 patients participated in this randomized, double-blind, standard therapy-controlled, parallel-design trial. The patients were randomly divided into three groups, receiving three capsules of either 1,000 mg Omega-3 fish oil (400 mg EPA and 300 mg DHA) or 1.5 mL vitamin-D (2,800 IU/7 ml) daily for 10 months plus the standard therapy. Lactate dehydrogenase, high-density lipoprotein (HDL), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), hematocrit, reticulocyte count, and white-blood-cell count were determined at baseline (month zero) and end of the 10th month. The pain severity was measured using the visual analog scale method (VAS). Therefore, a 10-cm ruler with a VAS design was used to determine the patient pain intensity. The baseline time point was defined as the time spot before starting to deliver the experimental medication to the patients (month zero). At that time, the biodata of the patient on the frequency of pain episodes and the rest of the variables were collected, and the baseline data were one-year retrospective data. Of 165 patients enrolled in the trial, 150 were included in the final analysis. At the end of the study, there was a significant increase in serum LDL and HDL in the Omega-3 group as compared with the control group (mean of 82 mg/dL vs. 57 mg/dL; p < 0.01 and mean of 47 mg/dL vs. 43 mg/dL; p < 0.028, respectively). Other laboratory parameters were significantly influenced. The number of painful crises and pain levels was significantly decreased in the Omega-3 group compared with the control group (mean of one-episode vs. mean of three episodes; p = 0.01, mean of three on pain scale vs. six on pain scale; p = 0.018). Results showed that Omega-3 was more effective than vitamin-D or standard treatment alone relative to pain crises and most of the other studied items. Vitamin-D was more effective than standard therapy alone. Clinicians should consider the addition of Omega-3 supplements to the standard therapy and a de-escalation dose plan for the hydroxyurea medication.

A Heatmap for Monitoring Systemic Financial Stability Risks in Ukraine

This study presents an updated risk map of the Ukrainian financial sector – an analytical tool for identifying and monitoring the buildup and materialization of systemic risks. The risk map methodology that the National Bank of Ukraine used until 2021 has been revised to ensure that risk assessment is based on reliable quantitative indicators rather than expert judgements, as well as to extend the list of risks considered. The instrument allows the stability of the financial system to be assessed across key risks, such as macroeconomic risk, the credit risks of households and non-financial corporations, capital adequacy risk, profitability risk, liquidity risk, and foreign exchange risk. We introduce indicators that capture a wide range of economic and financial vulnerabilities and group them by risks. Each risk category contains from four to seven indicators that combine both actual data and expectations. Statistical checks show that the indicators clearly signal previous crisis episodes, as well as the buildup of vulnerabilities during the research period. We find that macroeconomic risk and foreign exchange risk have the best explanatory and predictive power, while the weaker performance of other risks could result from structural changes in the banking sector over the past decades that have affected the overall risk profile of the financial sector.

Natures of concern: The criminalization of artisanal and small-scale mining in Colombia and Peru

Law enforcement against illegal mining and the formalization of artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) share similar challenges, yet research has examined both as separate policy arenas. Overcoming this limitation, I trace ASM criminalization to uncover how this division is drawn. I unpack this process as a frontier moment in resource regime change, relating transformations in ASM governance to the fragile hegemony of large-scale mining (LSM) in Andean states. Drawing from Gramscian and Foucauldian approaches to political ecology, I introduce natures of concern to analyse how environmental degradation hierarchies are created to stabilize crisis episodes. I stress the pace, timing, and legitimacy dimensions to introduce resource regime changes. Colombia and Peru exemplify how elite perceptions of LSM's fragile hegemony underpin the jurisdictional pathways to criminalize ASM. In the first case via an elite boomerang: scale-jumping to circumvent a congressional vote as an urgent matter. In the second, preemptive elite practice: the scalar reconfiguration of national government's attributions preceded by early regulatory transformations. ASM heterotopic imagination subsumes the sector under a hierarchy of environmental damage, leading to improvement projects that reposition LSM as a preferable extraction developer, environmental steward, and territorial authority. Data comes from a year of fieldwork in Colombia and Peru, including 72 interviews with elite and non-elite actors and the documentary analysis of congressional journals, court proceedings, legislation, media, amongst other sources.

Cross-Market Correlations and Financial Contagion from Developed to Emerging Economies: A Case of COVID-19 Pandemic

In the event that the COVID-19 pandemic spreads across various stock markets, this study may be deemed as one of the primary studies to evaluate cross-market interactions. The study examines the spread of contagious effects originating from developed economies (the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan) to selected emerging markets (China, India, Thailand, Taiwan, Egypt, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates). The countries studied are classified into three regions: developed economies, Asia, and Africa and the Middle East. The crisis period is identified with the deployment of the Markov regime-switching model. The conditional correlations are compared before and after the crisis episode using the time-varying multivariate DCC-GARCH model. The findings confirm that certain emerging markets are experiencing contagion from developed markets, while others remain unaffected. Overall, investors in the two regions examined (Asia, and Africa and the Middle East) have comparable diversification options. The findings are expected to bolster policymakers and international agencies in developing post-crisis measures.

Factors associated with repeated use of a mobile response service for children: An observational retrospective cohort study

IntroductionChildren visit emergency departments (EDs) for behavioral health reasons, but EDs are not ideal treatment settings. One alternative service is Mobile Crisis Intervention Services (MCIS), which provides children in crisis with a response in the community from a clinician. Research on MCIS is relatively limited; as such, it is important to look at how the service is being used. Roughly one-third of children who use Mobile Crisis will have a subsequent episode. Exploring repeated use of the service is important to understanding how MCIS is being used by children and families.Research Questions: 1. Are certain sociodemographic groups more or less likely to return to MCIS? 2. Are there clinical characteristics such as presenting problem, acuity, and service history that are associated with the number of MCIS episodes? 3. How are the characteristics of the initial MCIS episode, and the services provided during that episode, related to the subsequent number of episodes? MethodsThis study employed a retrospective cohort design, analyzing data for children who had their first Mobile Crisis episode between 2015 and 2017. The administrative data used was obtained from an existing database where providers enter data on each MCIS episode for quality improvement purposes. Data for these children were looked at for two years following their first episode. The sample was comprised of children up to age 15 at the time of their first episode, and contained slightly more males (52.9%) than females (47.1%). The majority of children identified as White non-Hispanic (37.3%), Hispanic (31.1%), or Black non-Hispanic (16.2%). Binary logistic regression and zero-inflated binomial regression were used to look at the relationships between various factors and the outcome. ResultsFemale children were slightly more likely to have multiple episodes, while Hispanic and Multiracial children were less likely to have a high number of additional episodes. Certain presenting problems – disruptive behavior (OR = 1.36; p < 0.001) and harm/risk of harm to others (OR = 1.33; p = 0.003) – were associated with increased odds of having multiple MCIS episodes. Additionally, children with more acute symptoms at intake and a history of behavioral health services (OR = 1.43; p < 0.001) were more likely to return to MCIS. Children referred to an Inpatient Hospital upon discharge from MCIS were more likely to return to the service (OR = 1.59; p < 0.001). Additionally, children were most likely to have multiple episodes if they were referred by their family rather than a third party. ConclusionsThough this study is exploratory and additional research is needed, these findings provide an understanding for how this service is used and may be able to inform practice. As the need for MCIS and other children’s behavioral health services continues to increase in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, this research can provide information not only on MCIS but on the behavioral health system as a whole. Comparing the results of this study to previous research on repeated use of the ED provides important context for the ways children and families are using two crucial behavioral health crisis services.

Impact de la crise Covid-19 sur les activités de radiologie hospitalière

Le texte présenté ici réalise une synthèse des données bibliographiques disponibles, avec un focus particulier sur l’impact de la crise COVID sur les programmes de dépistage et de prise en charge précoce des cancers – illustré par l’évaluation de l’impact sur le dépistage du cancer du sein, et la prise en charge du cancer primitif du foie – et sur l’impact théorique attendu dans les années à venir.

The pendulum movement: Unstable political settlements for artisanal and small-scale mining in Peru

The formalization of artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) has been hampered by various policy implementation bottlenecks. The politics that explain this failed implementation are often associated with subnational agendas and local clientelist networks. In this article, we question the “locality trap”. Following a political-economic and geographical approach, we bring into dialogue political settlements and ASM formalization literature to analyze the multi-scalar coalitions that configure formalization in Peru, stressing the role of economic and political elites, and the actors enrolled in their policy iterations. We suggest that many of the policy and administrative formalization shortcomings can be explained in terms of multi-scalar coalitions and the territorial projects they mobilize around natural resource governance. We bring this conceptual framework to examine the Peruvian case. Changing elite-led coalitions over the past thirty years have constantly reassessed ASM’s value for economic development against the fabric of Peru’s political settlement, balancing large-scale mining (LSM) and foreign direct investments as the chosen source of revenue with episodes of political crisis. We characterize these back-and-forth changes with the pendulum movement, which produces unstable institutional arrangements that preclude ASM planning. We interpret that ASM informality is one way to stabilize working environments amidst rapid and poorly implemented policy shifts. In conclusion, we propose that the erratic and uneven configuration of ASM geographies is more sensitive to political instability and elite-led responses to crisis than to subnational actors alone, or commitments to balance the responsible development of ASM with environmental protection. We suggest that tackling this instability is crucial to advancing any SDG project that untaps ASM contributions.

External Balance Sheets and the COVID-19 Crisis

At the onset of the COVID-19 economic crisis, as in other crisis episodes, we observed a rapid appreciation of “safe haven” currencies. We quantify currency-induced balance sheet valuation effects for aggregate external positions as well as for broadly defined asset classes for the first quarter and the full year 2020. To do so, we use new data on the currency composition of cross-border assets and liabilities for 46 countries. In contrast with past financial crises, many emerging markets did not experience losses on their aggregate external balance sheets despite facing a domestic currency depreciation. This was partly due to currency-induced valuation gains on equity positions offsetting losses on debt positions, and partly due to reduced currency mismatch on their external debt positions. We conduct the stock-flow reconciliation of net international investment positions to measure overall valuation effects and compute the proportion that is due to changes in currency values. For about half of the countries in our sample, currency-induced valuation effects were substantial, representing over 50 percent of total valuation effects in 2020Q1 and the full year 2020.