Epidemiological Trends Research Articles

The burden of cirrhosis and other chronic liver disease in the middle east and North Africa (MENA) region over three decades

BackgroundCirrhosis comprises a significant health challenge in the Middle East and North African (MENA) region impacting healthcare systems and communities. This study sought to investigate trends in the burden of cirrhosis and other chronic liver disease, different etiologies, deaths, and the disability burden utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database.MethodsAnalyzing epidemiological trends from 1990 to 2021 across 21 MENA countries, this research utilized data on age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized death rates, and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to evaluate the burden of cirrhosis and other chronic liver disease. The study also examined national variations and sociodemographic relationships.ResultsThe study identified a 114.9% increase in cirrhosis and other chronic liver disease incidence within the MENA region between 1990 and 2021, with 7,344,030 incident cases reported in 2021. The ASIR showed a steeper rise in females (9.6%) compared to males (7.0%). Etiology-specific analysis revealed an increase in the ASIR for MASLD related cirrhosis and other chronic liver disease by 22.2%, while those due to alcohol as well as hepatitis B and C decreased by 28.1%, 59.3%, and 30%, respectively. Despite the rising incidence, overall age-standardized death rates across all etiologies decreased by 54.3%, with DALYs showing a 51.4% decrease during the same period. Country-specific trends varied significantly, with Oman recording the highest annual ASIR increase (0.64%), and Qatar observing the most substantial annual reduction in age-standardized death rates (-2.88%).ConclusionThe study highlights evolving trends in cirrhosis and other chronic liver disease within the MENA region, emphasizing the necessity for comprehensive, etiology, and gender-specific interventions. Despite an increasing incidence, the observed improvements in mortality rates and age-standardized disability burden indicate progress in public health efforts to mitigate cirrhosis’s impact. These findings point to the complex nature of cirrhosis outcomes and the urgent need for tailored strategies to manage its increasing burden effectively.

Epidemiology and temporal trends of infective endocarditis between 2006 and 2018 at a tertiary referral center

Abstract Introduction Despite modern diagnostics, targeted antibiotic therapy and surgical treatment the mortality rate of infective endocarditis (IE) remains high. In developed countries both the risk factors and pathogens have changed. Objective and methods In our retrospective study we analyzed the clinical and microbiological characteristics, short- and long-term all-cause mortality, and temporal trends of consecutive patients admitted with IE between 2006 and 2018. Results We included 537 cases in our study, the mean age was 55.9 ± 16.5 years (72.2% male). 325 (60.5%) cases were native left-sided IE, 14 (3%) cases were right-sided IE, 130 (24%) cases were prosthetic valve IE, 62 (11.5%) cases were intracardiac device-related IE and 6 (1%) other cases. The most common microorganisms were Staphylococci (n=175; 33%), including 104 cases of methicillin-sensitive Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA), 27 cases of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and 44 cases of coagulase-negative Staphylococci. Streptococcus species were identified in 141 cases (26%), Enterococcus species in 88 cases (16%) and 72 cases (13%) were classified as blood culture-negative IE. In-hospital all-cause mortality was 14%, mortality at six months was 27%, at one-year was 31%, and at five-year was 45%. The incidence of MSSA infections increased over time (p=0.024), while coagulase-negative Staphylococci (p<0.001), and Streptococci (p=0.047) infections decreased. None of the observed mortality rates showed significant change over the study period. Predictors of mortality were advanced age (HR 1.37; p<0.001), impaired renal function (HR: 1.03; p<0.001), reduced ejection fraction on admission (HR 1.38; p<0.001), stroke (HR 1.74; p=0.001), and MRSA infection compared to Streptococci (HR 2.56; p=0.002). Conclusion During the observed 13-year period Staphylococci were the most common pathogens, with an increasing incidence of MSSA infection in our tertiary center. The mortality rate of IE remained high and showed no improvement over time.

Insights from a hospital database: injuries among children under 6 years old due to falls

Abstract Background Pediatric injuries represent a significant public health concern globally, contributing to substantial morbidity and mortality among children. In Georgia, limited data exists regarding pediatric injuries. The aim of the study was to analyze epidemiological characteristics and trends of pediatric injuries among children aged under 6 years who received treatment in hospitals across whole country. Methods NCDC hospitalization database for 2015-2022 was used for the study. Results Over the study period, a total of 5979 children under the age of 6 received treatment in all hospitals across Georgia. The highest number of hospital admissions were registered in 2019. 60% were boys and 40% were girls of the hospitalized patients. Boys were predominant across all age groups, with the highest proportion among children aged 5 years old. There was a significant variation in hospital admissions according to the seasons, with the highest admissions occurrence in summer. As for the cause of admission, 37% resulted from falls on the same level, 10% from falls between different levels, 7% involved falling from a bed, 4% from falling out or through a building, and 4% from falling down stairs. The cause of falls was unspecified in 23%. In 72% of cases, the injured body part was the head, 17% were upper extremity injuries, and 7% were lower extremity injuries. Of the patients, 90% recovered, 2% discontinued treatment, 8% were transferred, and the outcome was fatal for 0.23% of patients. Among the fatal cases, 36% resulted from falls from, out of, or through a building, 29% from falls between different levels, 14% from falling or jumping, 7% from falls involving a bed, and 7% from falls on the same level. Conclusions These findings underscore the importance of preventive measures, especially regarding fall prevention, to reduce the incidence of pediatric injuries in Georgia. Key messages • There was a significant variation in hospital admissions according to the seasons, with the highest admissions occurrence in summer. • These findings underscore the importance of preventive measures, especially regarding fall prevention, to reduce the incidence of pediatric injuries in Georgia.

Epidemiology and Treatment Trends in the Management of Dupuytren's Disease From 2016 to 2022

Epidemiology and Treatment Trends in the Management of Dupuytren's Disease From 2016 to 2022

Epidemiology of recurrent myocardial infarction in the reperfusion era

Abstract Introduction During the past decades, the incidence, management, and outcomes of myocardial infarction (MI) have improved considerably.(1-4) However, the characteristics and outcomes of patients who experience a recurrent MI are sparsely described. Purpose This study aimed to analyse the epidemiology and temporal trends of recurrent MI during the reperfusion era. Methods A nationwide registry-based cohort study was conducted, including all hospital admissions for recurrent MI in Denmark during 2000 to 2020. Descriptive statistics were used to analyse changes in patient characteristics and management. Survival analyses, taking competing risks into account when relevant, and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for sex, age, comorbidities, and pre-recurrent MI pharmaceutical treatment were used to analyse the outcomes of interest: all-cause mortality, hospitalisation for heart failure (HHF), and additional recurrent MI. Results A total of n=55,722 admissions for recurrent MI between 2000 and 2020 were included. Median age at admission was 73 years, 68.0% were male, and 32.9% were patients with a 3rd or more recurrent MI. Between 2000-02 (n=9,490) and 2018-20 (n=5,520), patients admitted with a recurrent MI had an increased prevalence of comorbidities such as diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and cancer (Condensed Table 1). Likewise, the use of guideline directed management at the time of recurrent MI increased during the study period: percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) from 12.8% to 47.2%, coronary angiography (CAG) from 21.8% to 68.0%, statins from 30.5% to 74.2%, and adenosine diphosphate (ADP) receptor inhibitors from 8.2% to 41.8%. Statistically significant linear calendar time trends were observed for all three outcomes (Figure 1). Between 2000-02 and 2018-20 (Figure 2), the absolute 1-year risk of mortality declined from 31.6% to 16.0% (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 0.46 [95% CI: 0.43-0.50]). The absolute 1-year risk of an additional recurrent MI declined from 13.9% to 6.2% (aHR: 0.38 [0.34-0.43]). The absolute 1-year risk of HHF increased from 8.8% in 2000-02 to 10.5% in 2009-11 (aHR: 1.09 [0.99-1.21]), before declining to 7.4% in the final calendar year period (aHR: 0.75 [0.66-0.84]). Interpretation and conclusion Despite remarkable advances in the management and outcomes of patients experiencing recurrent MI during the reperfusion era, this remains a vulnerable, high-risk population. Special attention is warranted regarding the optimization of guideline directed care and prevention of heart failure following a recurrent MI.Figure 1Figure 2 & Condensed Table 1

Nationwide trends and incidence of blindness in patients with diabetic retinopathy identified using an age-period-cohort analysis.

To estimate the epidemiologic trends of blindness in patients with diabetic retinopathy (DR) and investigate the age-, period-, and cohort-specific effects on blindness. A total of 2.5 million patients with DR aged 20 years or older were included from the Korean National Health Claims database from 2005 to 2019. Non-proliferative DR/ proliferative DR (NPDR/PDR) cohorts were constructed separately. Participants were identified as having a blindness in at least one eye. The incidence of blindness were calculated using a log-linear Poisson age-period-cohort (APC) analysis model, each effect on blindness were estimated for each study group. The incidence of blindness was 1326.62 per 100,000 in the NPDR group and 3397.57 in the PDR group. The blindness rate sharply decreased after 2011, with annual decreases of 5.6% and 4.4% in the NPDR and the PDR groups, respectively. People born between 1920 and 1930 had the highest overall risk of blindness, with the risk decreasing rapidly after that. For those born after 1980, the risk started to increase in both sexes. Among the APC models, the combination model of age, period, and cohort effects showed the highest explanatory power (0.96). In this nationwide long-term study, blindness in DR was not due to a single epidemiologic cause but rather a combination of biological age, social determinants, and healthcare policies. The increased risk of blindness in individuals in their 20 s and 30 s may even increase in the future and should not be ignored. Therefore, vigilance of younger patients is recommended.

5.I. Scientific session: Epidemiological insights into vaccine hesitancy in Europe: building bridges and overcoming barriers

Abstract Vaccine hesitancy remains a pivotal challenge in public health, undermining immunization efforts and the containment of infectious diseases across Europe. This scientific session aims to dissect the complex nature of vaccine hesitancy, uncovering epidemiological trends and barriers to vaccine acceptance, particularly in diverse demographic contexts. The objective is to facilitate a comprehensive understanding among public health stakeholders and to foster actionable strategies through enriched dialogue and interaction. This session will delve into recent studies and projects that highlight the variability of vaccine hesitancy within Europe. First, an exploration of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance will reveal how sociodemographic factors influence vaccine-related behaviors across 20 European nations. This will be complemented by an analysis of targeted interventions designed to enhance vaccine uptake among migrant populations, drawing lessons from the RIVER-EU project. Additionally, a focus on national efforts to combat measles vaccine hesitancy will provide a case study on the challenges and successes in altering public health narratives. Based on the feedback received on last year’s session, the format is intended not only to provide a platform to present empirical evidence and insights but also to encourage a participatory environment where attendees can exchange ideas and propose innovative solutions. For this reason, the session will engage the audience through an interactive discussion period at the end of each of the three presentations, stimulating thought-provoking dialogues that could lead to effective and innovative public health practices. Fostering international and interdisciplinary collaboration in the field of vaccine hesitancy is key for continued monitoring and reporting on the vaccine hesitancy phenomenon and inspiring actionable solutions. Key messages • Sociodemographic factors are associated with vaccine hesitancy across Europe indicating the potential for targeted strategies. • A platform to share insights and inspire actionable public health solutions to combat vaccine hesitancy amomg European public health professionals is needed.

The projected global burden of modifiable risk factors on cardiovascular disease from 2025 to 2100

Abstract Background Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the primary cause of global mortality and morbidity. Controlling modifiable risk factors driving the CVD epidemic is a vital focus of primary prevention efforts worldwide. Understanding the epidemiological trends in these risk factors is therefore essential in designing effective countermeasures against CVDs for the years to come. Purpose This study aims to forecast the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with CVDs attributable to high systolic blood pressure (SBP), high body-mass index (BMI), high fasting plasma glucose (FPG), high low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and tobacco use from 2025 to 2100, stratified by GBD super-regions, sex, sociodemographic index (SDI), and age-groups. Methods Historical data on DALYs from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study was used to project DALYs associated with modifiable risk factors of CVDs from 2025 to 2100. Trends across GBD super-regions, sex, SDI, and age-groups were also examined. Results Between 2025 and 2100, age-standardised DALY rates (ASDR) per 100,000 population are forecasted to fall across all modifiable risk factors, with the greatest decline seen in tobacco use (-76.0%) and high LDL (-66.9%). Globally, high SBP and high BMI expect the greatest ASDR in 2100 (both 891 per 100,000 population), while tobacco use expects the least (213 per 100,000 population). High BMI is expected to rise 623.0% in South Asia and 221.5% in South-east Asia, East Asia and Oceania from 2025 to 2100, while high FPG is expected to rise 114.2% in North Africa and the Middle-east and 110.6% in South Asia. Females are expected to have lower overall and greater reductions in ASDR across all modifiable risk factors when compared to males from 2025 to 2100. Notably, males expect a 11.0% rise in high BMI worldwide across this period. The age-prevalence of modifiable risk factors is expected to be bimodal in 2100, highest in those aged 50-59 as well as 75-84 years old, possibly suggesting improvements in global screening efforts or the earlier development of metabolic dysfunction. All modifiable risk factors are predicted to fall in high and high-middle SDI regions from 2025 to 2100. In contrast, low, low-middle, and middle SDI regions expect a rise in high FPG and high BMI across this same time frame. The burden of modifiable CVD risk factors is expected to be highest in low-middle SDI regions in 2100, as compared to high-middle SDI regions in 2025. Conclusion While the global decline in ASDR of modifiable risk factors suggests overall improvements in the primary prevention of CVDs, regional spikes in high BMI and FPG calls for the implementation of timely, targeted interventions accounting for local trends in CVD. Moreover, the disproportionate metabolic burden expected in lower SDI regions in the coming decades requires concerted, international support to alleviate the global burden of CVDs.

Divergent interpretations of child abuse in legal judgments: perspectives from clinicians and forensic experts

BackgroundChild abuse in Taiwan is a major societal concern that severely affects the well-being of children. Despite the complexity in detecting abuse, reports of child abuse are increasing, evidenced by a rise in cases and heightened awareness. This study utilizes judicial judgments as a lens to understand the varied interpretations of child abuse by clinical and forensic experts and explores the broader epidemiological trends of such abuse within the declining youth population of Taiwan.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective study by analyzing official court judgments on child abuse allegations judged from 2008 to 2022 from the online database of Judicial Yuan. Furthermore, the study analyzed demographic factors, injury patterns, and opinions from various experts.ResultsThe results reveal that severe criminal cases of child abuse predominantly involve biological fathers as the primary offenders and physical abuse as the most common form of maltreatment. Victims are typically aged less than 5 years, which frequently leads to an unfavorable prognosis. Analysis also highlights the TEN-4-FACESp acronym as a highly predictive indicator of child abuse and underscores the prevalence of abusive head trauma (AHT). Moreover, the findings emphasize ongoing disparities in opinions between forensic medical examiners and clinical physicians, especially in AHT cases, which potentially influences judicial decisions.ConclusionsIn summary, the study reveals ongoing disagreements between forensic medical examiners and clinical physicians, especially in cases of AHT, which may impact judicial decisions. Promoting consensus through interdisciplinary collaboration and improved communication can aid in revealing the truth in child abuse cases.

Trends and predictions of maternal sepsis and other maternal infections among women of childbearing age: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019.

Maternal sepsis and other maternal infections (MSMIs) are major public health concerns worldwide. However, comprehensive data on their global burden and evolving trends remain sparse. This study aims to explore the epidemiological trends of MSMIs in women of childbearing age (WCBA) from 1990 to 2019, investigate the relationship between disease burden and age, period, and birth cohorts, and then provide a prediction of MSMIs incidence and deaths. The estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for the incidence and death number of MSMIs in seven age groups (15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49 years) were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of MSMIs in WCBA were estimated utilizing the age standardization by direct method. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to investigate the changing trends of age-standardized incidence and mortality rates from 1990 to 2019. Age-period-cohort analysis was utilized to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and birth cohorts. Furthermore, a Nordpred age-period-cohort analysis was implemented to predict the global epidemiological trends through 2044. In 2019, the estimated global age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of MSMIs in WCBA were 1072.90 (95% UI: 725.93 to 1483.46) and 0.86 (95% UI: 0.69 to 1.05), respectively. The highest disease burden existed in the African Region. From 1990 to 2019, the estimated global age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of MSMIs (AAPC: -1.32, 95% CI: -1.34 to -1.30; AAPC: -3.39, 95% CI: -4.28 to -2.48) in WCBA both demonstrated significant declining trends. The changing trends varied significantly across 6 regions and 204 countries. The effects of age, period, and cohort on incidence and mortality rates differed. From 2020 to 2044, the global age-standardized incidence rate of MSMIs in WCBA was predicted to decrease whereas the case number increases slowly. The global trends in MSMIs incidence and mortality generally showed a decline with considerable heterogeneity, indicating both the effectiveness and unevenness of global management of MSMIs. Moreover, the predicted increased case number highlights prominent challenges in the control of MSMIs.

Trends and age-period-cohort analysis of leukemia incidence in Qidong from 1972 to 2021

Objective: To describe the epidemiological characteristics and trends of leukemia incidence in Qidong between 1972 and 2021, and provide guidelines for prevention and control measures and strategies. Methods: The cancer registry data was collected and analyzed on leukemia incidence during 1972-2021 in Qidong by sex, age and time. Crude incidence rate (CR), China age-standardized rate (ASRC), world age-standardized rate (ASRW), and average annual change percentage (AAPC) was calculated by Joinpoint software. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to analyze the influence of age, period and birth cohort on the changes in the incidence trend of leukemia patients. Results: From 1972 to 2021, there were 2 948 patients with leukemia in Qidong, accounting for 2.00% of all cancer new cases, CR of leukemia was 5.26/105, ASRC was 4.34/105, ASRW was 4.35/105. The truncated incidence of 35-64 years old was 5.29/105, the cumulative incidence rate between the ages of 0 and 74 years old was 0.40%, the cumulative risk was 0.40%. There were 1 608 male patients, the CR, ASRC, and the ASRW were 5.81/105, 4.88/105 and 4.85/105. The number of female patients were 1 340, and the CR, ASRC, and the ASRW were 4.71/105, 3.86/105 and 3.91/105, respectively. Temporal trends indicated significant upward trends in ASRC among both gender, males and females with AAPC values of 1.41% (P＜0.001), 1.15% (P＜0.001), and 1.73% (P＜0.001), respectively. The results of the APC model showed that the average net drift value of leukemia incidence in all age groups was 1.57% (95% CI, 1.24%-1.89%), and the highest value of local drift was 3.20% (95% CI, 1.63%-4.78%) in the 80~ years old group. The incidence of leukemia increased with age. With the passage of time, the risk of leukemia incidence increased gradually compared with the rate ratio of leukemia incidence (risk ratio [RR], 1.00) in 1992-1996, the RR of leukemia incidence increased from 0.70 during 1972-1976 to 1.57 during 2017-2021. The later the cohort was born, the greater the risk of leukemia incidence compared with the relative risk of leukemia incidence (RR, 1.00) in 1952-1956 cohort, the RR of leukemia incidence increased from 0.24 in the 1892-1896 cohort to 2.73 in the 2017-2021 cohort. Conclusions: The incidence of the leukemia has presented a rising trend in the past fifty years. Leukemia incidence increased with age, and the period and cohort effects on the risk of incidence increase. Further research is needed to investigate the risk factors related to leukemia.

Performance Assessment of a Multiplex Real-Time PCR Assay for Detection of Viruses Causing Respiratory Tract Infections.

Following the COVID-19 pandemic, global epidemiological trends demonstrate a return to pre-pandemic levels of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza (Flu) A/B viruses. For the appropriate clinical management of viral infections, reliable and timely diagnosis is crucial. The clinical presentation of these respiratory viral infections shows significant overlaps; thus, the syndromic diagnosis of these infections becomes challenging. The goal of this study was to compare the performance of three multiplex real-time PCR-based platforms for the detection of SARS-CoV-2, Flu A, Flu B, and RSV. A retrospective study was performed on 200 de-identified nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal specimens. All samples were tested simultaneously on three PCR-based platforms for the detection of SARS-CoV-2, Flu A, Flu B, and RSV: HealthTrackRx's real-time PCR Open Array® respiratory panel, TrueMark™ SARS-CoV-2, Flu A, Flu B, RSV Select Panel, and BioFire® RP2.1 Panel. The positive and negative predictive value of each test was evaluated at a 95% confidence interval. Among the 200 tested samples, the TrueMark™ and OpenArray® laboratory-developed tests (LDTs) showed a 100% concordance for the detection of SARS-CoV-2, Flu A, Flu B, and RSV. Overall agreement of 100% was observed for nasopharyngeal samples between the laboratory-developed tests and FDA-approved BioFire® RP2.1 Panel. Diagnostic results for these four respiratory viruses, in clinical samples, between the LDTs and the FDA-approved comparator demonstrated full concordance. Respiratory viral infections represent one of the major global healthcare burdens. Consequently, the accurate detection and surveillance of these viruses are critical, particularly when these viruses are known to co-circulate. The excellent performance and full concordance of the LDTs, with the BioFire® Respiratory RP2.1 panel, in detecting SARS-CoV-2, Flu A, Flu B, and RSV shows that these tests can be confidently implemented for the clinical testing of respiratory viral infections.

Treestrand-Related Injuries Outnumber Projectile-Related Injuries in Arkansas Hunters, 1993-2022.

Epidemiologic data on hunting-related injuries is sparse. Most published studies in this arena come from case reports or case series from a trauma department or state trauma registry. Relatively few of the studies have attempted to calculate rates of injury by demographic characteristics or hunting-related activities. In this study, we summarize the epidemiologic trends in hunting-related injuries in Arkansas over the last 30 years. A descriptive analysis of hunter injury data collected by the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission from 1993 to 2022 was performed. Analyses showed that the overall number of hunting-related injuries decreased by 0.16 per 100,000 licensees per year during the study period (P=0.0009). Projectile-related injuries decreased by 0.24 per 100,000 licensees (P=0.00001), and treestand-related injuries increased by 0.06 per 100,000 licensees (P=0.02) during the same time (both trends P<0.00001). treestand-related injuries now account for two thirds of all hunting-related injuries reported to the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission. Among hunters subject to hunter education certification mandates, compliance was 48.7%. Although projectile-related hunting injuries have decreased in Arkansas in the last 30 years, treestand-related hunting injuries have increased. These injuries are largely preventable if the hunter follows treestand safety recommendations (such as using a body harness and tether at all times when off the ground), as recommended by the Treestand Manufacturers of America. In addition, implementing strategies to improve compliance with hunter education certification also may help reduce injury rates.

The Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Pediatric Orthopedic Injuries: A Single-Center Retrospective Study.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound effect on the pediatric population worldwide. The consequences of the lockdown and the reallocation of hospital resources have caused notable changes in the presentation of pediatric orthopedic injuries. Through our use of patient records, we were able to display the epidemiological trends, as well as analyze the changes in the type and mechanism of various injuries. Our purpose is to further understand the considerable effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on pediatric orthopedic trauma and help guide the allocation of future healthcare resources. We conducted a retrospective cohort study on pediatric patients admitted for any orthopedic injury over a 3-year period (September 2018 to August 2021) at a Midwest level 1 trauma center. Cases were stratified into two groups based on the United States' COVID-19 lockdown (19 March 2020): Pre-COVID-19 cases were any cases prior to the lockdown and Intra-COVID-19 which are cases following the lockdown. Numerical data and categorical variables were summarized and differences between the case groups were examined using either two-Proportion Z-Test, Independent Two-Sample t-test, Pearson's chi-squared, or Fisher's exact tests. A total of 3179 pediatric orthopedic referrals occurred between the Pre-COVID-19 and Intra-COVID-19 study periods. We observed a general decrease in orthopedic injuries following the COVID-19 lockdowns with 1235 injuries compared to 1606 Pre-COVID-19. Patterns in the locations of injuries changed; notably, fractures of the humerus, tibia, and fibula decreased significantly (p < 0.05). Several mechanisms of injuries decreased significantly following the onset of COVID-19 including injuries caused by monkey bars, basketball, and automobiles (p < 0.01). There was a significant increase in the overall injury severity during the Intra-COVID-19 period (p < 0.05). Although there was a reduction in acute orthopedic trauma referrals, many injury mechanisms displayed similar trends regardless of restrictions. We clinically observed an overall increase in the severity of pediatric orthopedic injuries during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Nonrheumatic Valvular Heart Disease and Its Attributable Risk Factors in 204 Countries and Territories, 1990 to 2019: Results From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Nonrheumatic valvular heart disease (NRVD) is increasingly becoming a significant public health concern, particularly among older people. In the context of population aging, a detailed report on the epidemiological trends of NRVD is crucial for policymakers to effectively allocate health care resources. This study aimed to explore these trends using data from the GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2019 study. We assessed the changing trends of the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years rates for NRVD by calculating the estimated annual percentage change for each. Additionally, we examined the impact of a region's level of social development on NRVD epidemiological trends and identified key risk factors contributing to NRVD-related deaths. Between 1990 and 2019, the global incidence of NRVD showed a gradual increase, with an estimated annual percentage change of 0.39 (95% CI, 0.30-0.48). The data revealed that women and older people are more likely to develop NRVD. High-sociodemographic index countries exhibited higher age-standardized incidence and mortality rates compared with low- and middle-sociodemographic index countries. The most significant risk factor for NRVD-related mortality was identified as high systolic blood pressure. Over the past 3 decades, the burden of NRVD has intensified, indicating a need for more health care resources to address this issue, which is closely associated with an aging population. Currently, high-sociodemographic index countries report the highest incidences and deaths due to NRVD. However, low- and middle-sociodemographic index countries should also implement measures to manage the rapidly increasing burden of NRVD.

Epidemiologic trends and clinical outcomes of imported malaria in a tertiary care hospital, Bangkok, Thailand: A retrospective analysis (2013–2022)

BackgroundDespite a significant declined in malaria incidence in Thailand, the rising global travel has resulted in an increase of imported malaria cases, posing a threat to the goal of malaria elimination. This study aims to understand the epidemiological trends and clinical outcomes of imported malaria cases in Thailand. MethodsMedical records of all imported malaria cases admitted from 1st January 2013 to 31st December 2022 at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Thailand, were retrospectively examined. Demographic data, travel details, severity of illness, and clinical outcomes were described. Logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with severe disease outcomes. ResultsIn total, 335 cases of imported malaria were identified, with 33 % classified as transnational malaria and 67 % as border malaria. Transnational malaria cases (79 % P. falciparum) were mostly acquired from Sub-Saharan Africa for business or visiting friends and relatives (VFRs). Border malaria cases (81 % P. vivax) involved unskilled labourers and were acquired from land-border countries. The proportion of imported malaria in business travelers increased from 13 % to 50 % over the ten years. Risk factors for severe imported malaria included male gender, age 40 and older, infection with P. falciparum, and acquired malaria from Africa. ConclusionsUnderstanding unique demographic and socioeconomic characteristics in both border and transnational cases is crucial for effective malaria prevention. The increasing imported malaria among business travelers highlight the need for targeted prevention in this high-risk group.

Evolving trends in oral cancer burden in Europe: a systematic review.

Oral cavity cancer (OCC), primarily oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC), is a growing concern in Europe, particularly among younger populations. Preventable lifestyle factors and social determinants of health contribute significantly to the disease burden. Limited access to healthcare and delayed diagnoses further complicate treatment and reduce survival rates. This systematic literature review adhered to PRISMA guidelines to explore trends in OSCC epidemiology, etiology, diagnosis, treatment, and survival across Europe. A comprehensive search strategy using PubMed, GLOBOCAN data, and the EUROCARE-5 study identified relevant articles focusing on human populations in Europe with a primary interest in OSCC epidemiology. Only peer-reviewed publications in English with full-text access were included. This study investigated the burden of OSCC across Europe, revealing variations in incidence, mortality, and prognosis. Eastern and Central Europe displayed the highest burden. Males exhibited a significantly higher risk compared to females. Age-related disparities existed in life expectancy and time to achieve favorable outcomes. HPV emerged as a growing risk factor for oropharyngeal cancer. Public health strategies should target modifiable risk factors and improve early detection. This review reveals concerning disparities in European OSCC. Region, sex, and age all influence burden and prognosis. Future research should focus on controlling risk factors and personalized medicine to optimize treatment. This will lead to a Europe with reduced OSCC incidence and demonstrably better patient outcomes.

Transmission of carbapenem-resistant enterobacterales producing NDM-5 during the broiler breeding process in China

This study conducted a four-month monitoring of carbapenem resistance in a broiler breeding farm in China. A total of 185 carbapenem-resistant bacterial isolates were obtained from 2298 cloacal swabs from broiler breeders and their offspring within a production cycle. The detection rate of carbapenem-resistant isolates was higher during the brooding period. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) was performed on 133 isolates based on sampling stages, including 113 carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) isolates and 20 Stenotrophomonas pavanii isolates, which have intrinsic resistance to carbapenems. A total of 69 antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs), including blaNDM-1, mcr-1, and blaNDM-5, were identified among the sequenced CRE isolates. Notably, blaNDM-5 (92.0 %, 104/113) was the primary contributor to carbapenem resistance. CRE isolates from the same breeding stage exhibited close genomic relationships, and the blaNDM-5 genes were observed in similar genetic backgrounds, indicating the transmission of CRE strains and blaNDM-5 during the broiler breeding process. No CRE was isolated from 0 d broiler offspring, suggesting that broiler breeders were not the direct source of CRE in their offspring. Tracing the feeding process revealed that brooder and rearing houses were likely key factors in the cross-transmission of CRE between broiler breeders and their offspring. CRE pose a significant threat to public health and food safety. China is one of the world's leading poultry producing and consuming countries. This study provided insights into the epidemiological trends and key transmission nodes of carbapenem resistance and CRE within the broiler breeding process, which could help the control of antibiotic resistance and bacterial infections in the broiler industry.

Epidemiological trends of SARS-CoV-2 infections during pregnancy in Chicago

Abstract Background The epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 has varied significantly across age groups, specifically children. Immune and physiologic changes in pregnancy can lead to increased susceptibility to infection. Pregnant people were at increased risk of severe COVID-19 infections and obstetric complications, particularly before vaccine availability. We investigated epidemiologic trends of SARS-CoV-2 cases in pregnant people over time compared to trends in the general population and various age subgroups. We hypothesized that rates of SAR-CoV-2 infection in pregnant people may show a similar pattern to children rather than nonpregnant adults. Methods Cases of pregnant persons with SARS-CoV-2 infection who delivered at Prentice Women’s Hospital (Chicago, IL) were identified through the electronic medical record (March 2020-November 2022). Prentice has ~12,000 births annually. Clinical data collection for SARS-CoV-2 cases included the date of positive test, maternal demographics, vaccination status, severity, and latency (days between SARS-CoV-2 infection and delivery). SARS-CoV-2 cases rates in Chicago (cases/100,000; total; age 0-17 years, ≥18 years) were obtained from the Chicago Department of Public Health. Monthly average SARS-CoV-2 rates were calculated to visualize trends over the study period using Microsoft Excel. Results A total of 3,474 SARS-CoV-2 cases in pregnancy were included in the final dataset; 497 cases were excluded from analyses due to incomplete data to pinpoint timing of infection. The median maternal age was 33 years (IQR 30-36) with a median latency of 72 days (IQR 22-143.75). Over half (2206) of pregnant persons received COVID-19 vaccination. In terms of timing, 514 people (15%) tested positive during their 1st trimester, 1017 (29%) in 2nd trimester, and 1943 (56%) in 3rd trimester. The trends of SARS-CoV-2 cases over time among pregnant persons coincide closely with trends among children in Chicago rather than adults [Figure 1]. A steep spike and higher SARS-CoV-2 rates were observed in pregnancy during the initial Omicron variant surge (December 2021-January 2022) and in April-July 2022, during which children also led case rates. Earlier in the pandemic, pregnant people and children were less affected than non-pregnant adults. Conclusion We observed an interesting trend of SARS-CoV-2 cases among pregnant persons aligning with rates in children in Chicago rather than adults. Possible explanations include: 1) pregnant people exercising an abundance of caution prior to vaccine availability and knowledge about COVID-19 in pregnancy and 2) epidemiologic link of maternal exposure to children. This information may inform public health strategies and effective precautions in future epidemics/pandemics to keep patients safe during pregnancy. Figure 1. Cases of SARS-CoV-2 in age and pregnancy subgroups in Chicago. Blue bars represent SARS-CoV-2 positive cases among pregnant people who later delivered at Prentice Women’s Hospital [left y-axis] March 2020-November 2022. Colored lines represent case rate (cases/100,000) in Chicago according to Chicago Department of Public Health data (yellow = total, purple = adults ≥18 years, red = children 0-17 years) [right y-axis].

Long-Term Care in Germany in the Context of the Demographic Transition—An Outlook for the Expenses of Long-Term Care Insurance through 2050

Demographic aging results in a growing number of older people in need of care in many regions all over the world. Germany has witnessed steady population aging for decades, prompting policymakers and other stakeholders to discuss how to fulfill the rapidly growing demand for care workers and finance the rising costs of long-term care. Informed decisions on this matter to ensure the sustainability of the statutory long-term care insurance system require reliable knowledge of the associated future costs. These need to be simulated based on well-designed forecast models that holistically include the complexity of the forecast problem, namely the demographic transition, epidemiological trends, concrete demand for and supply of specific care services, and the respective costs. Care risks heavily depend on demographics, both in absolute terms and according to severity. The number of persons in need of care, disaggregated by severity of disability, in turn, is the main driver of the remuneration that is paid by long-term care insurance. Therefore, detailed forecasts of the population and care rates are important ingredients for forecasts of long-term care insurance expenditures. We present a novel approach based on a stochastic demographic cohort-component approach that includes trends in age- and sex-specific care rates and the demand for specific care services, given changing preferences over the life course. The model is executed for Germany until the year 2050 as a case study.