Epidemiological Parameters Research Articles

The potential public health impact of the respiratory syncytial virus prefusion F protein vaccine in people aged ≥60 years in Japan: results of a Markov model analysis

ABSTRACT Background Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), a common respiratory pathogen, can lead to severe symptoms, especially in older adults (OA). A recently developed RSV prefusion F protein (RSVPreF3 OA) vaccine confers high protection against RSV lower respiratory tract disease (LRTD) over two full RSV seasons. The aim of this study was to assess the potential public health impact of RSVPreF3 OA vaccination in the Japanese OA population. Research design and methods A static Markov model was used to estimate the number of symptomatic RSV cases, hospitalizations and deaths in the Japanese population aged ≥ 60 years over a 3-year time horizon. Japan-specific RSV epidemiology and healthcare resource use parameters were used; vaccine efficacy was derived from a phase 3 randomized study (AReSVi-006, NCT04886596). Vaccination coverage was set to 50%. Results Without vaccination, >5 million RSV acute respiratory illness (ARI) would occur (2.5 million LRTD and 2.8 million upper respiratory tract infections) leading to ~ 3.5 million outpatient visits, >534,000 hospitalizations and ~ 25,500 RSV-related deaths over 3 years. Vaccination could prevent > 1 million RSV-ARI cases, 728,000 outpatient visits, 143,000 hospitalizations and 6,840 RSV-related deaths. Conclusions RSVPreF3 OA vaccination is projected to have a substantial public health impact by reducing RSV-related morbidity and mortality in the OA population.

Differential Expression of Down-regulated MicroRNA-126 and Micro RNA-22 in Ovarian Carcinogenesis

Background: Non-coding RNA i.e. MicroRNA plays an important role in the progression and pathogenesis of different types of tumours including ovarian cancer. Deregulated microRNA expression could transform the passivity of cancer, disease progression, chemoresistance, and mobility. The miRNA profile of healthy and cancerous samples was observed to be different. MicroRNA expression analysis and profiling have a bright future in improving the effectiveness of ovarian cancer treatment that is customized to the patient's specific requirements. Expression analysis of serum microRNA-126 and microRNA-22 in ovarian carcinogenesis has been done in the present study. Methods: Present study has been done in the serum of eighty- two epithelial ovarian cancer patients and eighty- two their age-matched healthy women to investigate +the expression of miR-126 and miR22 was TaqMan PCR microRNA assay. The correlation of expression miR-126 and miR-22 with epidemiological and clinicopathological factors was determined statistically. Results: Results showed a 3.37-fold decrease in miR-126 expression and a 2.67-fold reduction in miR-22 expression in ovarian cancer patients. Decreased serum level of miR-22 and miR-126 in ovarian cancer patients has been correlated with the FIGO stage. Results revealed 87.46 sensitivity and 91.12 specificities for down-regulated microRNA 22 with FIGO stage of ovarian cancer and 71.26 sensitivity and 81.12 specificities respectively. More sensitivity and specificity of microRNA 22 with FIGO stage of ovarian cancer was revealed as compared to microRNA 126. Conclusion: Present study revealed downregulated expression of miR-126 and miR-22 in the serum of epithelial ovarian cancer patients. Among all epidemiological and clinical parameters, the FIGO stage of ovarian cancer revealed a substantial association with microRNA level. Results revealed that the sensitivity and specificity of down-regulated microRNA 22 in ovarian cancer were 87.46 and 91.12 and for microRNA 126 with 71.26 and 81.12 respectively. This may be investigated and verified as a durable diagnostic biomarker for the pre-diagnosis of ovarian carcinogenesis.

Global epidemiology of cannabis use disorders and its trend from 1990 to 2019: Benchmarking analysis of the global burden of disease study.

Cannabis is one of the most widely used psychoactive substances globally, with an increasing trend in its legalization for both medical and recreational purposes in various countries. While cannabis offers potential therapeutic benefits, its regular use can lead to the development of Cannabis Use Disorders (CUDs). Understanding the epidemiology of CUDs is crucial in assessing the public health burden associated with cannabis use. Epidemiological parameters of CUDs were assessed using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) methodology across different age-groups, years, sexes, and locations worldwide from 1990-2019. Globally, for both sexes combined, prevalent cases of CUDs increased steadily from 17.1 million(95%UI=12.7-22.8million) in 1990 to 23.8-million(95%UI=17.8-30.9 million) in 2019. All age-adjusted highest number of incidence observed in High-Income-North-America(HINA)(121/100,000), followed by Australasia(100/100,000), Oceania(83.97/100,000), Tropical Latin America(69.59/100,000). Globally, age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate(ASDR) observed higher in HINA, followed by Australasia, and Western-Europe. In male, all-age incidence counts increased from 1.7 million(95%UI=1.3-2.4million) in 1990 to 2.4 million(95%UI=1.8-3.2 million) in 2019. The highest annual percentage of change in age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR) was found in East-Asia (22%) followed by Middle-East and North-Africa(MENA)(15%). The age group of 15-24 years exhibited the highest burden of CUDs. The widespread occurrence of CUDs on a global scale poses a substantial challenge to public health. Understanding the impact of CUDs and implementing evidence-based interventions is crucial in mitigating the associated individual, societal, and economic burdens. Continued research, collaboration, and knowledge dissemination are essential to inform policies, prevention efforts, and treatment strategies aimed at addressing CUDs on a global-scale.

Costs of distributing HIV self-testing kits in Eswatini through community and workplace models

BackgroundThis study evaluates the implementation and running costs of an HIV self-testing (HIVST) distribution program in Eswatini. HIVST kits were delivered through community-based and workplace models using primary and secondary distribution. Primary clients could self-test onsite or offsite. This study presents total running economic costs of kit distribution per model between April 2019 and March 2020, and estimates average cost per HIVST kit distributed, per client self-tested, per client self-tested reactive, per client confirmed positive, and per client initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART).MethodsDistribution data and follow-up phone interviews were analysed to estimate implementation outcomes. Results were presented for each step of the care cascade using best-case and worst-case scenarios. A top-down incremental cost-analysis was conducted from the provider perspective using project expenditures. Sensitivity and scenario analyses explored effects of economic and epidemiological parameters on average costs.ResultsNineteen thousand one hundred fifty-five HIVST kits were distributed to 13,031 individuals over a 12-month period, averaging 1.5 kits per recipient. 83% and 17% of kits were distributed via the community and workplace models, respectively. Clients reached via the workplace model were less likely to opt for onsite testing than clients in the community model (8% vs 29%). 6% of onsite workplace testers tested reactive compared to 2% of onsite community testers. Best-case scenario estimated 17,458 (91%) clients self-tested, 633 (4%) received reactive-test results, 606 (96%) linked to confirmatory testing, and 505 (83%) initiated ART.Personnel and HIVST kits represented 60% and 32% of total costs, respectively. Average costs were: per kit distributed US$17.23, per client tested US$18.91, per client with a reactive test US$521.54, per client confirmed positive US$550.83, and per client initiating ART US$708.60. Lower rates for testing, reactivity, and linkage to care in the worst-case scenario resulted in higher average costs along the treatment cascade.ConclusionThis study fills a significant evidence gap regarding costs of HIVST provision along the client care cascade in Eswatini. Workplace and community-based distribution of HIVST accompanied with effective linkage to care strategies can support countries to reach cascade objectives.

Epidemiology and infection control of vancomycin-resistant enterococci at a German university hospital: A three-year retrospective cohort study.

Vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) occur in hospitalized patients, causing both infection and colonization. In recent years, there has been an increase in VRE in German and other hospitals, raising the question of how to control this epidemic best. To better understand the specific epidemiology and to guide infection control, we conducted a retrospective cohort study analyzing all patients with VRE at Hannover Medical School, a tertiary university clinic in Germany that specializes in solid organ transplantation. Epidemiologic and clinical characteristics of patients with VRE from 2015-2017 were collected. Basic epidemiologic parameters, including VRE incidence and incidence density, were calculated. Independent risk factors for nosocomial VRE infection compared to colonization were assessed using a logistic regression model. There were 1,492 VRE cases corresponding to 822 individual patients. The incidence was 0.8 VRE cases per 100 cases. A total of 536 (35.9%) of the 1,492 VRE cases were acquired nosocomially. Of the 1,492 cases, 912 cases had VRE-positive samples (894 Enterococcus (E.) faecium and 18 E. faecalis) in our hospital laboratory and the remaining cases were known VRE carriers. The vanB-phenotype was observed in 369 of the 894 (41.3%) E. faecium isolates and in 6 of the 18 (33.3%) E. faecalis isolates. There was an increase over time in the vanB-phenotype proportion in E. faecium (2015: 63 of 171, 36.8%, 2016: 115 of 322, 35.7% and 2017: 191 of 401, 47.6%). A total of 107 cases had a VRE infection (7.2% of all VRE cases) according to the criteria of the German National Reference Center for Surveillance of Nosocomial Infections. The remaining cases were only colonized. Among other factors, leukocytopenia (<1,000/μL), the use of a central venous catheter and the visceral surgery medical specialty were independently associated with nosocomial VRE infection. VRE imposed a relevant and increasing infection control burden at our hospital. Nosocomial VRE infection was predominantly found in certain medical specialties, such as hematology and oncology and visceral surgery. Infection control efforts should focus on these highly affected patient groups/specialties.

Diagnosis and Treatment Patterns of Chronic Thromboembolic Pulmonary Hypertension in Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkey, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia: A Registry Study.

Patients with chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH) in countries with limited resources have, to date, been poorly represented in registries. This work assesses the epidemiology, diagnosis, hemodynamic and functional parameters, and treatment of CTEPH in Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkey, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia. A prospective, cohort, phase IV, observational registry with 3-year follow-up (n = 212) in patients aged ≥ 18 years diagnosed with CTEPH was created. Clinical, hemodynamic, and functional parameters were obtained at an initial visit, follow-up visits, and a final visit at the end of 3years' observation or end of follow-up. Data were recorded on electronic case report forms. Parameters evaluated included 6-minute walking distance (6MWD), use of pulmonary endarterectomy (PEA), balloon pulmonary angioplasty (BPA), pulmonary hypertension (PH)-targeted therapy, and survival. All statistical analyses were exploratory and descriptive, and were performed in the overall population. The most common symptoms were typical of those expected for CTEPH. Almost 90% of patients underwent right heart catheterization at diagnosis or initial study visit. In total, 66 patients (31%) underwent PEA before the initial visit; 95 patients (45%) were considered operable, 115 (54%) were inoperable, and two (1%) had no operability data. Only 26 patients (12%) had been assessed for BPA at their initial visit. PH-targeted therapy was documented at diagnosis for 77 patients (36%), most commonly a phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibitor (23%). Use of PH-targeted therapy increased to 142patients (67%) at the initial visit, remaining similar after 3 years. Use of riociguat increased from 6% of patients at diagnosis to 38% at 3 years. Between baseline and end of observation, results for patients with paired data showed an increase in 6MWD. Survival at the end of observation was 88%. These data highlight the current diagnosis and management of CTEPH in the participating countries. They show that early CTEPH diagnosis remains challenging, and use of off-label PH-targeted therapy is common. gov: NCT02637050; registered December 2015.

About contamination by sterile females and residual male fertility on the effectiveness of the sterile insect technique. Impact on disease vector control and disease control

The sterile insect technique (SIT) is a technique to control pests and vectors of diseases by releasing mainly sterile males. Several challenges need to be solved before large-scale field application in order to guarantee its success. In this paper we intend to focus on two important issues: residual fertility in released (sterile) males and contamination of each release by sterile females. Indeed, sterile males are never 100% sterile, that is there is always a small proportion, ɛ, of fertile males (sperm of) within the sterile males population. Among the sterile insects that are released, a certain proportion, ϵF, of them are sterile females due to imperfect mechanical sex-separation technique. This can be particularly problematic when arthropod viruses are circulating, because mosquito females, even sterile, are vectors of diseases. Various upper bound values are given in the entomological literature for ϵF and ɛ without clear explanations. In this work, we aim to show that these values are related to the biological parameters of the targeted vector, the sterile insects release rate, and the epidemiological parameters of a vector-borne disease, like Dengue. We extend results studied separately in Aronna and Dumont (2020), Dumont and Yatat-Djeumen (2022). To study the impact of both issues, we develop and study a SIT-entomological-epidemiological mathematical model, with application to Dengue. Qualitative analysis of the model is carried out to highlight threshold values that shape the overall dynamics of the system. We show that vector elimination is possible only when Nɛ<1, where N is the basic-offspring number related to the targeted wild population. To ensure the success of SIT control, we recommend that the issue of residual fertility be addressed as a priority and then that contamination by sterile females be minimized with each release.

Predictors of blood pressure response to continuous positive airway pressure treatment in patients with sleep apnea.

Sleep apnea is associated with hypertension. Metaanalyses indicate that treatment of sleep apnea by continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) reduces blood pressure (BP) by a mean of 3 mmHg. To date, predictors of BP response to CPAP remain incompletely understood. We hypothesized that the magnitude of CPAP-induced BP reduction depends on baseline apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) and the extent of daytime sleepiness. We performed a retrospective study on the association of BP response to CPAP with polysomnographic readings, intensity of sleepiness (measured by Epworth Sleepiness Scale, ESS), and epidemiologic parameters in 2461 patients with obstructive sleep apnea. BP response was defined as the difference between office BP at polysomonography examinations before and after initiation of CPAP. Five hundred and fifty-five patients fulfilled all inclusion and exclusion criteria and were included in the analysis. Median monthly CPAP usage was 143.7 h (85.4-204.1 h). BP was significantly higher at baseline than at follow-up (129.9 ± 15.5 vs. 128.3 ± 15.2, P = 0.021) resulting in mean reduction of BP of -1.5 ± 19.2 mmHg. patients with a higher than median baseline AHI (median 21) showed a more pronounced reduction of BP than those with lower AHI (AHI ≥21: 130.5 ± 15.3 vs. 128.6 ± 14.6, P = 0.06; AHI <21: 129.5 ± 15.8 vs. 127.9 ± 15.8, P = 0.18). CPAP therapy led to a significant reduction in sleepiness (8.3 ± 4.8 vs. 6.6 ± 4.5, P < 0.0001). Those subjects with higher than median sleepiness score (ESS ≥8), however, did not show a significant difference in BP response compared with those with a lower sleepiness score. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses investigating the accuracy of AHI and ESS to predict a BP reduction at least 5 mmHg revealed an AUC of 0.51 and 0.52, respectively. The study confirms that CPAP therapy for sleep apnea has a mild BP lowering effect. Although this effect is slightly higher in patients with above-average AHI, neither AHI nor ESS can be used to define threshold values predicting a BP decrease at least 5 mmHg.

Using serological diagnostics to characterize remaining high-incidence pockets of malaria in forest-fringe Cambodia

BackgroundOver the last decades, the number of malaria cases has drastically reduced in Cambodia. As the overall prevalence of malaria in Cambodia declines, residual malaria transmission becomes increasingly fragmented over smaller remote regions. The aim of this study was to get an insight into the burden and epidemiological parameters of Plasmodium infections on the forest-fringe of Cambodia.Methods950 participants were recruited in the province of Mondulkiri in Cambodia and followed up from 2018 to 2020. Whole-blood samples were processed for Plasmodium spp. identification by PCR as well as for a serological immunoassay. A risk factor analysis was conducted for Plasmodium vivax PCR-detected infections throughout the study, and for P. vivax seropositivity at baseline. To evaluate the predictive effect of seropositivity at baseline on subsequent PCR-positivity, an analysis of P. vivax infection-free survival time stratified by serological status at baseline was performed.ResultsLiving inside the forest significantly increased the odds of P. vivax PCR-positivity by a factor of 18.3 (95% C.I. 7.7–43.5). Being a male adult was also a significant predictor of PCR-positivity. Similar risk profiles were identified for P. vivax seropositivity. The survival analysis showed that serological status at baseline significantly correlated with subsequent infection. Serology is most informative outside of the forest, where 94.0% (95% C.I. 90.7–97.4%) of seronegative individuals survived infection-free, compared to 32.4% (95% C.I.: 22.6–46.6%) of seropositive individuals.ConclusionThis study justifies the need for serological diagnostic assays to target interventions in this region, particularly in demographic groups where a lot of risk heterogeneity persists, such as outside of the forest.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of vaccination strategies against meningococcal disease for children under nine years of age in China

ABSTRACT Meningococcal vaccination strategies in China are intricate, including multiple vaccines targeting different serogroups. The current National Immunization Program (NIP) includes two polysaccharide vaccines for serogroups A and C (MPV-A and MPV-AC), covering limited serogroups and requiring adaptation. This study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of replacing the current strategy with alternative strategies utilizing non-NIP vaccines to inform policy decisions. From a societal perspective, a decision tree-Markov model was constructed to simulate the economic and health consequences of meningococcal disease in a 2019 birth cohort with four vaccination strategies. Epidemiology, vaccine efficacy, cost, and other parameters were derived from previous studies. We conducted sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of the findings and explored prices for non-NIP vaccines that enable cost-effective strategies. Compared to the current strategy, alternative strategies using quadrivalent polysaccharide vaccine (MPV-4), bivalent conjugate vaccine (MCV-AC), and quadrivalent conjugate vaccine (MCV-4) could avoid 91, 286, and 455 more meningococcal cases. The ICERs were estimated at approximately $250 thousand/QALY, $450 thousand/QALY, and $1.5 million/QALY, all exceeding the threshold of three times GDP per capita. The alternative strategies were not cost-effective. However, if vaccine prices were reduced to $3.9 for MPV-4, $9.9 for MCV-AC, and $12 for MCV-4, the corresponding strategy would be cost-effective. The current meningococcal vaccination strategy in China could effectively prevent the disease at a low cost, but with limited serogroup coverage. Strategies using MPV-4, MCV-AC, or MCV-4 could increase health benefits at a substantial cost, and might become cost-effective if vaccine prices decrease.

Landscape-Scale Epidemiological Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in White-Tailed Deer

Understanding pathogen emergence in new host species is fundamental for developing prevention and response plans for human and animal health. We leveraged a large-scale surveillance dataset coordinated by United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service and State Natural Resources Agencies to quantify the outbreak dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in North American white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus; WTD) throughout its range in the United States. Local epidemics in WTD were well approximated by a single-outbreak peak followed by fade out. Outbreaks peaked early in the northeast and mid-Atlantic. Local effective reproduction ratios of SARS-CoV-2 were between 1 and 2.5. Ten percent of variability in peak prevalence was explained by human infection pressure. This, together with the similar peak infection prevalence times across many counties and single-peak outbreak dynamics followed by fade out, suggest that widespread transmission via human-to-deer spillover may have been an important driver of the patterns and persistence. We provide a framework for inferring population-level epidemiological processes through joint analysis of many sparsely observed local outbreaks (landscape-scale surveillance data) and linking epidemiological parameters to ecological risk factors. The framework combines mechanistic and statistical models that can identify and track local outbreaks in long-term infection surveillance monitoring data.

Characterizing collective physical distancing in the U.S. during the first nine months of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic offers an unprecedented natural experiment providing insights into the emergence of collective behavioral changes of both exogenous (government mandated) and endogenous (spontaneous reaction to infection risks) origin. Here, we characterize collective physical distancing-mobility reductions, minimization of contacts, shortening of contact duration-in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the pre-vaccine era by analyzing de-identified, privacy-preserving location data for a panel of over 5.5 million anonymized, opted-in U.S. devices. We define five indicators of users' mobility and proximity to investigate how the emerging collective behavior deviates from typical pre-pandemic patterns during the first nine months of the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyze both the dramatic changes due to the government mandated mitigation policies and the more spontaneous societal adaptation into a new (physically distanced) normal in the fall 2020. Using the indicators here defined we show that: a) during the COVID-19 pandemic, collective physical distancing displayed different phases and was heterogeneous across geographies, b) metropolitan areas displayed stronger reductions in mobility and contacts than rural areas; c) stronger reductions in commuting patterns are observed in geographical areas with a higher share of teleworkable jobs; d) commuting volumes during and after the lockdown period negatively correlate with unemployment rates; and e) increases in contact indicators correlate with future values of new deaths at a lag consistent with epidemiological parameters and surveillance reporting delays. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that the framework and indicators here presented can be used to analyze large-scale social distancing phenomena, paving the way for their use in future pandemics to analyze and monitor the effects of pandemic mitigation plans at the national and international levels.

Diaphragmatic Trauma About 14 Cases

Introduction: Traumatic injury or rupture of the diaphragm is a rare consequence of thoracic and abdominal trauma. The aim of this study was to determine the epidemiological profile, the etiological mechanisms, the elements of the diagnosis, as well as the therapeutic modalities. Patients and Methods: This was a retrospective study carried out in the visceral surgery department of the Mohammed VI University Hospital of Marrakech over a period of 5 years between January 2017 and December 2022. Epidemiological parameters, clinical characteristics, treatment and prognosis of patients operated for diaphragm trauma were studied. Results: Fourteen patients with diaphragmatic trauma were operated on. Road accidents were the most representative etiological mechanism with 71% of cases (10 cases out of 14), including cars, motorcycles and pedestrians, For the remaining 4 cases, the rupture occurred following falls with basithoracic reception in 2 cases and following a thoraco-abdominal penetrating wound in 2 cases. The rupture involved the left diaphragmatic dome in eight cases, the right dome in four cases and it was bilateral in two patients. The diagnosis was confirmed in pre-operation by different imaging techniques, in particular computed tomography and in two cases by MRI. Essentially by the median route, treatment consisted of closure of the diaphragmatic breach by simple sutures and in some patients, the use of prosthetic equipment was indicated. Conclusion: Diaphragmatic ruptures occupy a special place in traumatology. They are evidence of severe trauma. They are sometimes unrecognized, either because of dominant associated lesions or because of the povertý of clinical signs and the low sensitivitý of common paraclinical examinations.

Methods for conducting a living evidence profile on mpox: An evidence map of the literature

AbstractBackgroundIn May of 2022, several cases of mpox were identified in multiple nonendemic countries and on July 23, 2022 the World Health Organization declared mpox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. During the first six months of the outbreak there was an urgent need to have up‐to‐date synthesized evidence on mpox to inform public health decision‐making. At this point, evidence is changing too quickly for traditional evidence synthesis methods, as systematic reviews were out‐of‐date before publication. This paper describes the framework developed to manage and maintain a living evidence profile (LEP) to systematically identify, classify and synthesize evidence on a broad range of mpox topics at a rapid pace as the outbreak unfolded.MethodsThe LEP framework was based on principles of evidence synthesis, risk assessment, priority epidemiological parameters for infectious disease modeling and consultation with experts. The framework consisted of a systematic search conducted twice weekly; study selection; categorization into pre‐determined foci and data extraction; integration and synthesis of evidence; internal peer‐review and dissemination to stakeholders.ResultsBetween April 14 and December 15, 2022, 2287 citations were identified, 687 were primary research studies or surveillance reports on the 2022 mpox outbreak and 496 were included in the final LEP. Each study was mapped to one of 32 foci and evidence was narratively synthesized. From June to December 2022, 23 LEPs were produced (approximately weekly) along with a searchable database of extracted data of the mpox literature. They were disseminated globally to public health researchers and decision‐makers to inform public health response efforts.ConclusionsThe LEP framework is applicable to other public health emergencies when a rapid synthesis cycle is required because the evidence is evolving quickly. This efficient methodology for creating up‐to‐date summaries of the current evidence during the first few months of an outbreak or emergency supports public health decision‐making and response activities.

Burden of Stroke in Europe: An Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study Findings From 2010 to 2019.

While most European Regions perform well in global comparisons, large discrepancies within stroke epidemiological parameters exist across Europe. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate the stroke burden across European regions and countries in 2019 and its difference to 2010. The GBD 2019 analytical tools were used to evaluate regional and country-specific estimates of incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years of stroke for the European Region as defined by the World Health Organization, with its 53 member countries (EU-53) and for European Union as defined in 2019, with its 28 member countries (EU-28), between 2010 and 2019. Results were analyzed at a regional, subregional, and country level. In EU-53, the absolute number of incident and prevalent strokes increased by 2% (uncertainty interval [UI], 0%-4%), from 1 767 280 to 1 802 559 new cases, and by 4% (UI, 3%-5%) between 2010 and 2019, respectively. In EU-28, the absolute number of prevalent strokes and stroke-related deaths increased by 4% (UI, 2%-5%) and by 6% (UI, 1%-10%), respectively. All-stroke age-standardized mortality rates, however, decreased by 18% (UI, -22% to -14%), from 82 to 67 per 100 000 people in the EU-53, and by 15% (UI, -18% to -11%), from 49.3 to 42.0 per 100 000 people in EU-28. Despite most countries presenting reductions in age-adjusted incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life year rates, these rates remained 1.4×, 1.2×, 1.6×, and 1.7× higher in EU-53 in comparison to the EU-28. EU-53 showed a 2% increase in incident strokes, while they remained stable in EU-28. Age-standardized rates were consistently lower for all-stroke burden parameters in EU-28 in comparison to EU-53, and huge discrepancies in incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-year rates were observed between individual countries.

Inferring community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United Kingdom using the ONS COVID-19 Infection Survey

Key epidemiological parameters, including the effective reproduction number, R(t), and the instantaneous growth rate, r(t), generated from an ensemble of models, have been informing public health policy throughout the COVID-19 pandemic in the four nations of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK). However, estimation of these quantities became challenging with the scaling down of surveillance systems as part of the transition from the “emergency” to “endemic” phase of the pandemic.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) COVID-19 Infection Survey (CIS) provided an opportunity to continue estimating these parameters in the absence of other data streams. We used a penalised spline model fitted to the publicly-available ONS CIS test positivity estimates to produce a smoothed estimate of the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 positivity over time. The resulting fitted curve was used to estimate the “ONS-based” R(t) and r(t) across the four nations of the UK. Estimates produced under this model are compared to government-published estimates with particular consideration given to the contribution that this single data stream can offer in the estimation of these parameters.Depending on the nation and parameter, we found that up to 77% of the variance in the government-published estimates can be explained by the ONS-based estimates, demonstrating the value of this singular data stream to track the epidemic in each of the four nations. We additionally find that the ONS-based estimates uncover epidemic trends earlier than the corresponding government-published estimates.Our work shows that the ONS CIS can be used to generate key COVID-19 epidemiological parameters across the four UK nations, further underlining the enormous value of such population-level studies of infection. This is not intended as an alternative to ensemble modelling, rather it is intended as a potential solution to the aforementioned challenge faced by public health officials in the UK in early 2022.

Russian registry of hypothalamic and pituitary tumors: clinical and statistical analysis for 01.01.2023

BACKGROUND: Pituitary adenomas are the third most common intracranial neoplasm. Clinical significance is determined by the nature of growth and hormonal activity, leading to disruption of various parts of metabolism. Medical registries are a valuable tool for assessing clinical and epidemiological parameters and obtaining data on real-life clinical practice.AIM: To analyze the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of four pituitary disorders in Russian Hypothalamic and Pituitary Tumor Registry (OGGO): acromegaly, Cushing’s disease, prolactin-secreting and non-functioning pituitary adenomasMATERIALS AND METHODS: The object of the study is the database of the OGGO registry, which includes 84 regions of the Russian Federation, as of 01/01/2023.RESULTS: The maximum prevalence of acromegaly in the Russian Federation was noted in Karelia (9.48/100 thousand) and Chuvash Republic (10.8/100 thousand) and in Tyumen region (8.9/100 thousand). The incidence of acromegaly in 2021 was 0.6/1 million population. The maximum prevalence of Cushing’s disease is observed in Karelia Republic (2.33/100 thousand), Chukotka (2.01/100 thousand), Kirov (1.79/100 thousand) and Tver region ( 1.79/100 thousand). The incidence of Cushing’s disease in 2021 was 0.1/1 million population. The maximum prevalence of prolactinomas is observed Karelia (13.33/100 thousand) and Chuvash Republic (12.35/100 thousand) and in Voronezh region (8.66/100 thousand). The incidence of prolactin-secreting adenomas in 2021 was 0.6/1 million population. The maximum prevalence of non-functioning pituitary adenomas is observed in the Karelia (15.08/100 thousand), Voronezh region (8.82/100 thousand), Tyumen region (8.11/100 thousand) and Sakha/Yakutia Republic (7.56 /100 thousand). The incidence of non-functioning pituitary adenomas in 2021 was 0.3/1 million population. The median age for acromegaly was 63.6 [53.2;71.5], for Cushing’s disease 49.2 [38.8;60.8], for prolactin-secreting adenomas 47.5 [38.3;59.7], for patients with non-functioning pituitary adenomas — 58.4 [43.8;67.9] . At the time of the last visit, remission was observed in 42.7% of patients with acromegaly, 62.5% with Cushing’s disease, 39.7% with prolactinomas and 76.6% of patients with non-active adenomas.CONCLUSION: The OGGO registry is a valuable tool for assessing epidemiological, clinical data and treatments used. At the same time, the quality of the analysis directly depends on the quality and completeness of the entered data. Further research in the field of epidemiology of endocrinopathies should be aimed at improving the quality and ease of data entry, which will allow obtaining the most complete patient characterization.

Covid19Vaxplorer: A free, online, user-friendly COVID-19 vaccine allocation comparison tool.

There are many COVID-19 vaccines currently available, however, Low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) still have large proportions of their populations unvaccinated. Decision-makers must decide how to effectively allocate available vaccines (e.g. boosters or primary series vaccination, which age groups to target) but LMIC often lack the resources to undergo quantitative analyses of vaccine allocation, resulting in ad-hoc policies. We developed Covid19Vaxplorer (https://covid19vaxplorer.fredhutch.org/), a free, user-friendly online tool that simulates region-specific COVID-19 epidemics in conjunction with vaccination with the purpose of providing public health officials worldwide with a tool for vaccine allocation planning and comparison. We developed an age-structured mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 vaccination. The model considers vaccination with up to three different vaccine products, primary series and boosters. We simulated partial immunity derived from waning of natural infection and vaccination. The model is embedded in an online tool, Covid19Vaxplorer that was optimized for its ease of use. By prompting users to fill information through several windows to input local parameters (e.g. cumulative and current prevalence), epidemiological parameters (e.g basic reproduction number, current social distancing interventions), vaccine parameters (e.g. vaccine efficacy, duration of immunity) and vaccine allocation (both by age groups and by vaccination status). Covid19Vaxplorer connects the user to the mathematical model and simulates, in real time, region-specific epidemics. The tool then produces key outcomes including expected numbers of deaths, hospitalizations and cases, with the possibility of simulating several scenarios of vaccine allocation at once for a side-by-side comparison. We provide two usage examples of Covid19Vaxplorer for vaccine allocation in Haiti and Afghanistan, which had as of Spring 2023, 2% and 33% of their populations vaccinated, and show that for these particular examples, using available vaccine as primary series vaccinations prevents more deaths than using them as boosters.

Torque Teno Virus load is associated with CDC stage and CD4+ cell count in people living with HIV but unrelated to AIDS-defining events and Human Pegivirus load.

Torque Teno Virus (TTV) is a non-enveloped, circular single-strand DNA virus and part of the human virome. The replication of TTV was related to the immune status in patients treated with immunosuppressive drugs after organ transplantation. We hypothesize that TTV load could be an additional marker for immune function in people living with HIV (PLWH). In this analysis serum samples of PLWH from the RESINA multicenter cohort were reanalysed for TTV. Investigated clinical and epidemiological parameters included Pegivirus (HPgV) load, age, sex, HIV load, CD4+ cell count (CDC 1, 2, 3) and CDC clinical stages (1993 CDC classification system, A, B, C) before initiation of antiretroviral treatment. Regression analysis was used to detect possible associations among parameters. Our analysis confirmed TTV as a strong predictor of CD4+ cell count and CDC class 3. This relationship was used to propose a first classification of TTV load in regard to clinical stage. We found no association with clinical CDC stages A, B and C. HPgV load was inversely correlated with HIV load but not TTV load. TTV load was associated with immunodeficiency in PLWH. Neither TTV- nor HIV load were predictive for the clinical categories of HIV infection.

Comparing the Performance of Three Computational Methods for Estimating the Effective Reproduction Number.

The effective reproduction number is one of the most important epidemiological parameters, providing suggestions for monitoring the development trend of diseases and also for adjusting the prevention and control policies. However, a few studies have focused on the performance of some common computational methods for Rt. The purpose of this article is to compare the performance of three computational methods for Rt: the time-dependent (TD) method, the new time-varying (NT) method, and the sequential Bayesian (SB) method. Four evaluation methods-accuracy, correlation coefficient, similarity based on trend, and dynamic time warping distance-were used to compare the effectiveness of three computational methods for Rt under different time lags and time windows. The results showed that the NT method was a better choice for real-time monitoring and analysis of the epidemic in the middle and late stages of the infectious disease. The TD method could reflect the change of the number of cases stably and accurately, and was more suitable for monitoring the change of Rt during the whole process of the epidemic outbreak. When the data were relatively stable, the SB method could also provide a reliable estimate for Rt, while the error would increase when the fluctuation in the number of cases increased. The results would provide suggestions for selecting appropriate Rt estimation methods and making policy adjustments more timely and effectively according to the change of Rt.