Epidemiological Parameters Research Articles

Esophageal motor disorders across ages: A retrospective multicentric analysis.

Age-related changes in the gastrointestinal system are common and may be influenced by physiological aging processes. To date, a comprehensive analysis of esophageal motor disorders in patients belonging to various age groups has not been adequately reported. We conducted a retrospective assessment of high-resolution manometry (HRM) studies in a multicenter setting. HRM parameters were evaluated according to the Chicago Classification version 4.0. Epidemiological, demographic, clinical data, and main manometric parameters, were collected at the time of the examination. Age groups were categorized as early adulthood (<35 years), early middle-age (35-49 years), late middle-age (50-64 years), and late adulthood (≥65 years). Overall, 1341 patients (632, 47.0% male) were included with a median age of 55 years. Late adulthood patients reported more frequently dysphagia (35.2%) than early adulthood patients (24.0%, p = 0.035), early middle-age patients (21.0%, p < 0.0001), and late middle-aged patients (22.7%, p < 0.0001). Esophagogastric junction outflow obstruction was more prevalent in late adulthood (16.7%) than in early adulthood (6.1%, p = 0.003), and in early middle-age (8.1%, p = 0.001). Patients with normal esophageal motility were significantly younger (52.0 years) than patients with hypercontractile esophagus (61.5 years), type III achalasia (59.6 years), esophagogastric junction outflow obstruction (59.4 years), absent contractility (57.2 years), and distal esophageal spasm (57.0 years), in multivariate model (p < 0.0001). The rate of esophageal motor disorders is higher in older patients, in particular esophagogastric junction outflow obstruction and hypercontractile esophagus. Future prospective studies are necessary to confirm our results and to find tailored strategies to improve clinical outcomes.

Multiple pandemic waves vs multi-period/multi-phasic epidemics: Global shape of the COVID-19 pandemic

The overall course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Western countries has been characterized by complex sequences of phases. In the period before the arrival of vaccines, these phases were mainly due to the alternation between the strengthening/lifting of social distancing measures, with the aim to balance the protection of health and that of the society as a whole. After the arrival of vaccines, this multi-phasic character was further emphasized by the complicated deployment of vaccination campaigns and the onset of virus’ variants. To cope with this multi-phasic character, we propose a theoretical approach to the modeling of overall pandemic courses, that we term multi-period/multi-phasic, based on a specific definition of phase. This allows a unified and parsimonious representation of complex epidemic courses even when vaccination and virus’ variants are considered, through sequences of weak ergodic renewal equations that become fully ergodic when appropriate conditions are met. Specific hypotheses on epidemiological and intervention parameters allow reduction to simple models. The framework suggest a simple, theory driven, approach to data explanation that allows an accurate reproduction of the overall course of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy since its beginning (February 2020) up to omicron onset, confirming the validity of the concept.

Quantitative risk assessment for the introduction of bluetongue virus into mainland Europe by long-distance wind dispersal of Culicoides spp.: A case study from Sardinia.

Europe faces regular introductions and reintroductions of bluetongue virus (BTV) serotypes, most recently exemplified by the incursion of serotype 3 in the Netherlands. Although the long-distance wind dispersal of the disease vector, Culicoides spp., is recognized as a virus introduction pathway, it remains understudied in risk assessments. A Quantitative Risk Assessment framework was developed to estimate the risk of BTV-3 incursion into mainland Europe from Sardinia, where the virus has been present since 2018. We used an atmospheric transport model (HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) to infer the probability of airborne dispersion of the insect vector. Epidemiological disease parameters quantified the virus prevalence in vector population in Sardinia and its potential first transmission after introduction in a new area. When assuming a 24h maximal flight duration, the risk of BTV introduction from Sardinia is limited to the Mediterranean Basin, mainly affecting the southwestern area of the Italian Peninsula, Sicily, Malta, and Corsica. The risk extends to the northern and central parts of Italy, Balearic archipelago, and mainland France and Spain, mostly when maximal flight duration is longer than 24h. Additional knowledge on vector flight conditions and Obsoletus complex-specific parameters could improve the robustness of the model. Providing both spatial and temporal insights into BTV introduction risks, our framework is a key tool to guide global surveillance and preparedness against epizootics.

Epidemiological, clinical, biological and evolutionary profile of scorpion envenomed children under one year to 15 years in the Souss Massa region of Morocco

Morocco is one of the main countries affected in North African with the scorpion envenomations. Faced with the threat, significant morbidity and a major risk of death especially in children, a detailed identification of scorpionic profile of stings remains important for health authorities at national or even regional level. The current study aims to establish the epidemiological, clinical, biological and evolutionary data of the scorpionism by analyzing 383 cases of scorpion stings in children from three age groups (<1 year, 1–5 years and >5 years), admitted at the Regional Hospital Hassan II-Agadir in the Souss Massa region during the period of 9 years and 10 months from January 2013 to October 2022. Our results showed that patients under 1 year of age presented the most severe cases and had the highest mortality rate. However, the clinical signs and symptoms observed illustrated severe damages to vital systems, particularly the cardiovascular, neurological and pulmonary systems, although the signs associated with the latter were present only in cases admitted in grades 2 and 3 for the three age categories studied. Fluctuations in vital constants (temperature and peripheral oxygen saturation, blood pressure, heart rate and respiratory rate), biochemical parameters (ASAT, ALAT, urea and blood creatine, as well as blood sugar) and CBC results revealed major functional disturbances in vital organs, especially in envenomated cases admitted in grade 3. A positive correlation was mentioned between the state of evolution and the various epidemiological parameters, digestive symptoms, as well as signs and symptoms linked to hemodynamic state, general and neurological state. The main interest is to illustrate the seriousness of scorpion envenomations, especially in the high-risk population, for whom an improved therapeutic approach in health centers will undoubtedly be reinforced, and the admission of immunotherapy, as a fundamental part of the treatment, remains important.

Utilizing whole genome sequencing to delineate relapse and reinfection tuberculosis on the Canadian prairies

RATIONALE Recurrent tuberculosis (TB) accounts for 5% of the Canadian TB burden. Recurrence can occur from relapse or reinfection. Identifying reinfection has implications for developing control policies. OBJECTIVE The objectives of this study were to quantify reinfection in recurrent TB using whole genome phylogenetic and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and compare with epidemiological and clinical parameters from the Canadian prairies. METHODS DNA sequences of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from recurrent TB cases along with epidemiological and clinical parameters were collected from Alberta and Saskatchewan. Inclusion criteria were two or more culture positive notifications age ≥17 years. SNP and phylogenetic tree scale differences (TIP) were used to determine the relapse and reinfection categories. RESULTS Of 7,627 notifications of TB disease, 533 were recurrent. 93 pairs (180 cases) were culture positive from which 26 (50 cases) were available for sequencing. 19 cases with SNP and TIP values ≤25 and ≤.001 were classified relapse. Seven SNP and TIP values >160 and >.001 were classified reinfection. Five of seven reinfections were Indigenous cases from high TB incidence areas. The non-sequenced and sequenced pairs differed only in age. CONCLUSIONS Recurrent culture positive TB is uncommon on the Canadian prairies and is more likely to be relapse. Reinfection is more likely in Indigenous persons living in high TB incidence communities. A limitation was the risk of selection bias since only 28% of eligible cases were sequenced. Since we did not know the non-sequenced reinfection risk, we could only conclude that the non-sequenced and sequenced categories were similar.

Huge hydrocephalus: a rare case series with insights into management and outcomes of this neglected cohort.

This study aims to discuss the management challenges of huge hydrocephalus (HH), a severe subset of hydrocephalus, presenting predominantly in underprivileged backgrounds. Insights into the condition's characteristics, factors affecting outcomes, and associated morbidity are discussed. A retrospective review of all operated cases of hydrocephalus with head circumference greater than body length (HC>L) was conducted (January 2019-January 2023). Data on epidemiological parameters, associated cranial abnormalities, cortical mantle thickness, peri-conceptional folic acid intake, surgical interventions, age-appropriate milestones, and complications were collected. Follow-up was conducted for at least 12 months or until expiration. The cohort consisted of 7 males and 5 females with age ranging from 3 to 48 months. 33% of them had associated neurological abnormalities, and 18 surgical interventions were needed for these 12 cases, including ventriculoperitoneal shunt or endoscopic diversion. A 17% wound breakdown rate requiring re-suturing was present, and 33% of cases had postoperative CSF infection, with 33% mortality, with only one case having age-appropriate development seen. The average hospital stay was 11.9 days, six times our center's average. All cases with an Evans index with an average of 0.7 expired within 12 months. None of the 12 mothers took peri-conceptional folic acid, and no case agreed to reduction cranioplasty. Huge hydrocephalus is a rare cohort with significant management challenges and poor prognosis even after treatment. Factors such as delayed intervention and low socioeconomic status contribute to adverse outcomes. Prevention through peri-conceptual folic acid intake and addressing socioeconomic disparities is crucial in reducing disease burden and improving prognosis.

Epidemiological investigation of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in a Vietnamese bear rescue centre.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks affecting Asiatic black bears (Ursus thibetanus) and a Malayan sun bear (Helarctos malayanus) were previously reported in 2011 in two housing facilities at a Vietnamese bear rescue centre. In this study, demographic data of all animals housed in the centre at the time of the outbreaks (n = 79) were collected. Blood samples drawn from 23 bears at different timepoints were tested for FMDV-specific antibodies targeting using a non-structural protein (NSP) ELISA and by virus neutralisation test (VNT). The relationship between seroconversion and clinical signs was explored and epidemic curves and transmission diagrams were generated for each outbreak, where FMD cases were defined as animals showing FMD clinical signs. Outbreak-specific attack rates were 18.75 and 77.77%, with corresponding basic reproduction numbers of 1.11 and 1.92, for the first and second outbreaks, respectively. Analyses of risk factors showed that after adjusting for sex there was strong evidence for a decrease in odds of showing clinical signs per year of age. All samples collected from bears before the outbreak tested negative to NSP and VNT. All cases tested positive to VNT following onset of clinical signs and remained positive during the rest of the follow up period, while only 6 out of 17 cases tested positive to NSP after developing clinical signs. Six animals without clinical signs were tested post outbreaks; five seroconverted using VNT and three animals were seropositive using NSP ELISA. This study provides initial epidemiological parameters of FMD in captive bears, showing that FMDV is easily spread between bears in close proximity and can cause clinical and subclinical disease, both of which appear to induce rapid and long-lasting immunity.

Estimating time-varying epidemiological parameters and underreporting of Covid-19 cases in Brazil using a mathematical model with fuzzy transitions between epidemic periods.

Our study conducts a comprehensive analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic in Brazil, spanning five waves over three years. We employed a novel Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Dead-Susceptible (SIRDS) model with a fuzzy transition between epidemic periods to estimate time-varying parameters and evaluate case underreporting. The initial basic reproduction number (R0) is identified at 2.44 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 2.42-2.46), decreasing to 1.00 (95% CI: 0.99-1.01) during the first wave. The model estimates an underreporting factor of 12.9 (95% CI: 12.5-13.2) more infections than officially reported by Brazilian health authorities, with an increasing factor of 5.8 (95% CI: 5.2-6.4), 12.9 (95% CI: 12.5-13.3), and 16.8 (95% CI: 15.8-17.5) in 2020, 2021, and 2022 respectively. Additionally, the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) is initially 0.88% (95% CI: 0.81%-0.94%) during the initial phase but consistently reduces across subsequent outbreaks, reaching its lowest value of 0.018% (95% CI: 0.011-0.033) in the last outbreak. Regarding the immunity period, the observed uncertainty and low sensitivity indicate that inferring this parameter is particularly challenging. Brazil successfully reduced R0 during the first wave, coinciding with decreased human mobility. Ineffective public health measures during the second wave resulted in the highest mortality rates within the studied period. We attribute lower mortality rates in 2022 to increased vaccination coverage and the lower lethality of the Omicron variant. We demonstrate the model generalization by its application to other countries. Comparative analyses with serological research further validate the accuracy of the model. In forecasting analysis, our model provides reasonable outbreak predictions. In conclusion, our study provides a nuanced understanding of the Covid-19 pandemic in Brazil, employing a novel epidemiological model. The findings contribute to the broader discourse on pandemic dynamics, underreporting, and the effectiveness of health interventions.

Strategic Individual Behaviors and the Efficient Vaccination Subsidy

Abstract This study addresses the issue of how to set a consumer price of a vaccination against an infectious disease. We especially focus on the effects of strategic behaviors of individuals within a social group. In characterizing an equilibrium level of vaccination rate, the spill-over effect of vaccination is important not only in the light of group efficiency but also from each individual’s viewpoint. By constructing a simple game-theoretic model under the Nash conjecture where individuals rationally predict the resulting vaccination rate based on their own information, we analyze how the efficient vaccination subsidy is related to epidemiological as well as economic variables. In particular, we show that individuals over-react to the changes in their expectations over the virulency of a disease and also over the scale of adverse effects of vaccinations. We also discuss the necessary adjustment of a vaccination price when the public have misperception over certain epidemiological parameters.

Using Object-Oriented Simulation to Assess the Impact of the Frequency and Accuracy of Mobility Scoring on the Estimation of Epidemiological Parameters for Lameness in Dairy Herds.

Mobility scoring data can be used to estimate the prevalence, incidence, and duration of lameness in dairy herds. Mobility scoring is often performed infrequently with variable sensitivity, but how this impacts the estimation of lameness parameters is largely unknown. We developed a simulation model to investigate the impact of the frequency and accuracy of mobility scoring on the estimation of lameness parameters for different herd scenarios. Herds with a varying prevalence (10, 30, or 50%) and duration (distributed around median days 18, 36, 54, 72, or 108) of lameness were simulated at daily time steps for five years. The lameness parameters investigated were prevalence, duration, new case rate, time to first lameness, and probability of remaining sound in the first year. True parameters were calculated from daily data and compared to those calculated when replicating different frequencies (weekly, two-weekly, monthly, quarterly), sensitivities (60-100%), and specificities (95-100%) of mobility scoring. Our results showed that over-estimation of incidence and under-estimation of duration can occur when the sensitivity and specificity of mobility scoring are <100%. This effect increases with more frequent scoring. Lameness prevalence was the only parameter that could be estimated with reasonable accuracy when simulating quarterly mobility scoring. These findings can help inform mobility scoring practices and the interpretation of mobility scoring data.

Re-assessing thermal response of schistosomiasis transmission risk: Evidence for a higher thermal optimum than previously predicted.

The geographical range of schistosomiasis is affected by the ecology of schistosome parasites and their obligate host snails, including their response to temperature. Previous models predicted schistosomiasis' thermal optimum at 21.7°C, which is not compatible with the temperature in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) regions where schistosomiasis is hyperendemic. We performed an extensive literature search for empirical data on the effect of temperature on physiological and epidemiological parameters regulating the free-living stages of S. mansoni and S. haematobium and their obligate host snails, i.e., Biomphalaria spp. and Bulinus spp., respectively. We derived nonlinear thermal responses fitted on these data to parameterize a mechanistic, process-based model of schistosomiasis. We then re-cast the basic reproduction number and the prevalence of schistosome infection as functions of temperature. We found that the thermal optima for transmission of S. mansoni and S. haematobium range between 23.1-27.3°C and 23.6-27.9°C (95% CI) respectively. We also found that the thermal optimum shifts toward higher temperatures as the human water contact rate increases with temperature. Our findings align with an extensive dataset of schistosomiasis prevalence in SSA. The refined nonlinear thermal-response model developed here suggests a more suitable current climate and a greater risk of increased transmission with future warming for more than half of the schistosomiasis suitable regions with mean annual temperature below the thermal optimum.

Associations between epidemiological and laboratory parameters and disease severity in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 during first and second epidemic waves in middle south Mato Grosso.

COVID-19 is a multisystemic disease characterized by respiratory distress. Disease severity is associated with several factors. Here we characterize virological findings and evaluate the association of laboratorial, epidemiological, virological findings and clinical outcomes of 251 patients during the first and second epidemic waves of COVID-19. This transversal study used biological samples and data from patients hospitalized with COVID-19 between May 2020 and August 2021 in the metropolitan region of Cuiabá, Mato Grosso Brazil. Biological samples were subjected to RT-qPCR and MinION sequencing. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression and Odds ratio were used to correlate clinical, laboratorial, epidemiological data. Patients were represented by males (61.7%) with mean age of 52.4 years, mild to moderate disease (49,0%), overweight/obese (69.3%), with comorbidities (66.1%) and evolving to death (55.38%). Severe cases showing symptoms for prolonged time, ≥ 25% of ground-glass opacities in the lungs and fatality rate increased significantly in second wave. Fatality was statistically associated to > 61 years of age,>25% ground-glass opacities in the lungs, immune, cardiac, or metabolic comorbidities. Higher viral load (p < 0.01/p = 0.02 in each wave), decreased erythrocyte (p < 0.01), hemoglobin (p < 0.05/p < 0.01), hematocrit (p < 0.01), RDW (p < 0.01), lymphocyte (p < 0.01), increased leucocyte (p < 0.01), neutrophil (p < 0.01) and CRP levels (p < 0.01) showed significant association with fatality in both waves, as did Neutrophil/Platelet (NPR; p < 0.01), Neutrophil/Lymphocyte (NLR; p < 0.01) and Monocyte/Lymphocyte ratio (MLR; p < 0.01). SARS-CoV-2 genomes from lineage B.1.1.33(n = 8) and Gamma/P.1(n = 15) shared 6/7 and 20/23 lineage-defining mutations, respectively. Severity and mortality of COVID-19 associated with a panel of epidemiological and laboratorial findings, being second wave, caused by Gamma variant, more severe in this in-hospital population.

ASPECTS EPIDEMIOLOGIQUES ET DIAGNOSTIQUES DES MALFORMARTIONS CONGENITALES OBSERVEES DANS DEUX SERVICES DE CHIRURGIE A DAKAR

Congenital malformations pose a real social, economic, coding and prognosis problem in our developing countries. Objectives. To list congenital malformations in two surgical departments of the University Hospital of Dakar and to search for etiological factors. Patients and methods. This was a prospective study in which we collected 100 cases of congenital malformations in a pediatric population during 13 months (January 2013 to January 2014) in the Neurosurgery Department of the Fann University Hospital and the Pediatric Surgery Department of the Aristide Le Dantec University Hospital. Epidemiological and diagnostic parameters were studied. Results. The most represented age group was that of children aged 0 to 4 years (n=87) with an average age of 1.47 years, the predominance of males was clear 68% with a sex ratio of 2.19. The notion of consanguineous marriage was reported in (61%) of cases with (57%) of cases of 2nd degree and (4%) of cases of 3rd degree. Wolofs were the most affected by congenital malformations (42%). The Dakar region was the most represented (37%). The socioeconomic level was low in (75%) of cases. In (93%) of cases, the parents of malformed children said they had no dea about the problem. The congenital malformations encountered were mainly hydrocephalusand visceral diso rders. We noted (13%) of deaths in our study. Conclusion. malformations are of multifactorial origin, which makes it necessary to set up a register of congenital malformations in order to monitor the prevalence, to detect rapidly variations in the frequency of an anomaly and to identify teratogenic factors. Key words: congenital malformations, hydrocephalus, visceral malformations, etiological factors, Dakar

LA POLYPOSE RECTOCOLIQUE DEGENEREE A PROPOS DE 4 CAS AU SERVICE DE CHIRURGIE DE L’HOPITAL DALAL JAMM

Colorectal polyposis (CRP) is a rare condition in underdeveloped countries, with well-known diagnostic challenges. Diagnose mainly made at stage of degeneration. We report 4 cases managed in our department. Patients and Methods: This was a review of adult patients managed in our surgical unit for degenerated CRP between January 2020 and December 2023. We studied epidemiological, diagnostic, therapeutic, and evolutionary parameters. Results: We collected 4 records with an average age of 40.8 years and a sex ratio of 1. The average duration of symptom was 33.5 months. Three patients presented with a rectal syndrome. Lower endoscopy revealed a mass stenosing the lower rectum in two patients, with biopsies revealing adenocarcinoma. They underwent total colo-proctectomy with definitive ileostomy. In the other two patients, CRP with high and low-grade dysplasia was found on biopsy. They underwent subtotal colo-proctectomy. Postoperative courses were uneventful. An oncogenetic investigation was conducted with endoscopy prescribed for family members. Conclusion: Prevention through screening remains the best means for early diagnosis and management of this benign condition before degeneration occurs. Keys-words: polyposis, colorectal, degeneration, adenocarcinoma, dysplasia.

Tracing household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in New Zealand using genomics

By early 2022, the highly transmissible Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 had spread across most of the world. For the first time since the pandemic began, New Zealand was experiencing high levels of community transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We enroled a cohort of households to better understand differences in transmission dynamics among subvariants of Omicron. We enroled 71 households, comprising 289 participants, and aimed to use viral genomes to gain a clearer understanding of variant-specific differences in epidemiological parameters affecting transmission dynamics. Approximately 80% of the households enroled experienced transmission of BA.2, while most of the remaining households had infections with BA.1 or BA.5. Using a logistic regression generalised linear mixed model, we found no difference in household secondary infection rate between Omicron subvariants BA.1, BA.2 and BA.5. Of the households recruited, the vast majority (92%) experienced a single chain of transmission with one inferred introduction. Further, we found that in 48% of the households studied, all household participants became infected following an index case. Most household participants tested positive within a week following an introduction, supporting the seven-day isolation requirement for household contacts that was in place in New Zealand at the time. By integrating genomic and epidemiological data, we show that viral transmission dynamics can be investigated with a higher level of granularity than with epidemiological data alone. Overall, households are a high risk setting for viral transmission in New Zealand.

Strategic vaccine stockpiles for regional epidemics of emerging viruses: A geospatial modeling framework

Multinational epidemics of emerging infectious diseases are increasingly common, due to anthropogenic pressure on ecosystems and the growing connectivity of human populations. Early and efficient vaccination can contain outbreaks and prevent mass mortality, but optimal vaccine stockpiling strategies are dependent on pathogen characteristics, reservoir ecology, and epidemic dynamics. Here, we model major regional outbreaks of Nipah virus and Middle East respiratory syndrome, and use these to develop a generalized framework for estimating vaccine stockpile needs based on spillover geography, spatially-heterogeneous healthcare capacity and spatially-distributed human mobility networks. Because outbreak sizes were highly skewed, we found that most outbreaks were readily contained (median stockpile estimate for MERS-CoV: 2,089 doses; Nipah: 1,882 doses), but the maximum estimated stockpile need in a highly unlikely large outbreak scenario was 2–3 orders of magnitude higher (MERS-CoV: ∼87,000 doses; Nipah ∼ 1.1 million doses). Sensitivity analysis revealed that stockpile needs were more dependent on basic epidemiological parameters (i.e., death and recovery rate) and healthcare availability than any uncertainty related to vaccine efficacy or deployment strategy. Our results highlight the value of descriptive epidemiology for real-world modeling applications, and suggest that stockpile allocation should consider ecological, epidemiological, and social dimensions of risk.

Incubation Period and Serial Interval of Mpox in 2022 Global Outbreak Compared with Historical Estimates.

Understanding changes in the transmission dynamics of mpox requires comparing recent estimates of key epidemiologic parameters with historical data. We derived historical estimates for the incubation period and serial interval for mpox and contrasted them with pooled estimates from the 2022 outbreak. Our findings show the pooled mean infection-to-onset incubation period was 8.1 days for the 2022 outbreak and 8.2 days historically, indicating the incubation periods remained relatively consistent over time, despite a shift in the major mode of transmission. However, we estimated the onset-to-onset serial interval at 8.7 days using 2022 data, compared with 14.2 days using historical data. Although the reason for this shortening of the serial interval is unclear, it may be because of increased public health interventions or a shift in the mode of transmission. Recognizing such temporal shifts is essential for informed response strategies, and public health measures remain crucial for controlling mpox and similar future outbreaks.

Clinical and laboratory prognostic factors in patients with mixed infection of erythema form of ixodic tick-borne borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis

Background. Early diagnosis of the mixed infection of ixodic tick-borne borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis can be difficult without laboratory confirmation of the diagnosis.The aim. To assess clinical and laboratory predictors in patients for building the models of early differential diagnosis between mixed infection of erythema form of ixodic tick-borne borreliosis and febrile form of tick-borne encephalitis and monoinfection of erythema form of ixodic tick-borne borreliosis.Materials and methods. The clinical study included 26 patients with mixed infection of the erythema form of ixodic tick-borne borreliosis with tick-borne encephalitis (mean age – 46.7 years) and 30 patients with monoinfection of the erythema form of ixodic tick-borne borreliosis (mean age – 48.5 years). 59 clinical, epidemiological and laboratory parameters, including 6 leukocyte blood indices, standard and extended hemogram profiles were studied in these patients the first week of the disease. For statistical analysis, we used Pearson and Mann – Whitney goodness-of-fit tests, ROC analysis with calculation of the area under curve (AUC) and logistic regression. Results. Patients with mixed infection, compared to the patients with monoinfection, had increased odds of having febrile fever, weakness, headache and orbital pain; meningism symptoms occurred only in patients with mixed infection. Early predictors of a preliminary diagnosis of mixed infection were elevated values of fever (AUC = 0.87), intoxication syndrome score (AUC = 0.71), leukocyte count (AUC = 0.64) and neutrophils (AUC = 0.71) in the hemogram, levels of leukocyte intoxication index according to V.K. Ostrovsky (AUC = 0.67) and neutrophil-leukocyte index (AUC = 0.65), as well as a decrease in the number of platelets (AUC = 0.77), eosinophils (AUC = 0.72) and basophils (AUC = 0.79) in peripheral blood. Two prognostic models which included clinical and laboratory parameters demonstrated excellent prediction of mixed infection (AUC = 0.90 and AUC = 0.91).Conclusion. Early clinical and laboratory predictors have been established and models have been developed that make it possible, with excellent prognosis quality, to calculate in patients the probability of a preliminary diagnosis of mixed infection of the erythema form of ixodic tick-borne borreliosis with tick-borne encephalitis in comparison with borreliosis monoinfection.

Based on epidemiological parameter data, probe into a stochastically perturbed dominant variant of the COVID-19 pandemic model

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the SARS-CoV-2 gene mutation has been rapidly emerging and spreading all over the world. Experts worldwide regularly monitor genetic mutations and variants through genome-sequence-based surveillance, laboratory testing, outbreak investigation, and epidemiological probing. Clinical pathologists and medical laboratory scientists prefer developing or endorsing COVID-19 vaccines with a broader immune response involving various antibodies and cells to protect against mutations or new variants. Randomness plays an enormous role in pathology and epidemiology. Hence, based on epidemiological parameter data, we construct and probe a stochastically perturbed dominant variant of the coronavirus epidemic model with three nonlinear saturated incidence rates. We reveal the existence of a unique global positive solution to the constructed stochastic COVID-19 model. The Lyapunov function method is used to determine the presence of a stationary distribution of positive solutions. We derive sufficient conditions for the coronavirus to be eradicated. Eventually, numerical simulations validate the effectiveness of our theoretical outcomes.

A multiplex SNaPshot assay for the detection of single nucleotide polymorphism associated with clinical severity of enterovirus infections

Non-polio enterovirus infections are known to cause a variety of diseases and neurological complications. It is also known that the severity of these diseases largely differs among individuals with different genotypes and alleles. The Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) within specific genes have a considerable effect on the immune response to enteroviruses and on the outcome of disease, leading to variations in complications and infection susceptibility. Knowing the distribution of such SNPs can be valuable for individual case management and studying epidemiological parameters of enterovirus infections. In this feasibility study, a multiplex version of the primer extension-based technique called the SNaPshot Assay has been developed to examine SNPs in various relevant genes for predicting the clinical severity of enterovirus infections. It is already established that this technique is precise, consistent, scalable, and likely to exhibit high throughput. The multiplex SNaPshot can investigate multiple genetic susceptibility markers simultaneously, and the assay can be used to identify vulnerable populations, understand the epidemiology of infections, and manage the outbreaks of enteroviruses. Based on the literature, 15 SNPs were identified which are suspected for higher susceptibility to the worst outcomes after enterovirus infection and the assay was developed. Blood samples of 100 healthy volunteers were collected and tested for assay feasibility as well as to know the proportions of 15 selected SNPs. After the analysis, seven SNPs have been identified and suggested to be considered for future assays. Based on the pilot test results, it appears that positivity for any three out of the identified seven SNPs might indicate a higher risk, and future studies correlated with clinical studies among patients with and without severe diseases utilizing this assay will provide robust parameters to determine at-risk individuals more accurately.