Epidemic Control Measures Research Articles

对2019年新型冠状病毒肺炎的认识及我国的疫情防控措施

对2019年新型冠状病毒肺炎的认识及我国的疫情防控措施

Visual Data Analysis and Simulation Prediction for COVID-19

The COVID-19 (formerly, 2019-nCoV) epidemic has become a global health emergency, as such, WHO declared PHEIC. China has taken the most hit since the outbreak of the virus, which could be dated as far back as late November by some experts. It was not until January 23rd that the Wuhan government finally recognized the severity of the epidemic and took a drastic measure to curtain the virus spread by closing down all transportation connecting the outside world. In this study, we seek to answer a few questions: How did the virus get spread from the epicenter Wuhan city to the rest of the country? To what extent did the measures, such as, city closure and community quarantine, help controlling the situation? More importantly, can we forecast any significant future development of the event had some of the conditions changed? By collecting and visualizing publicly available data, we first show patterns and characteristics of the epidemic development; we then employ a mathematical model of disease transmission dynamics to evaluate the effectiveness of some epidemic control measures, and more importantly, to offer a few tips on preventive measures.

Epidemic status and control of tick-borne parasitic diseases in China

Recently, both of the species of tick-borne parasites and cases of tick-borne parasitic diseases in human beings are increasing in China. Tick-borne diseases are considered to be an important public health problem affecting the health of Chinese. In this paper, we summarize the epidemic status and control measures of tick-borne parasitic diseases in China, and put forward that the epidemic status of tick-borne parasitic diseases may be greatly underestimated in China, and the systematic surveillance of tick-borne parasitic diseases on population, vectors and animal hosts is urgently needed.

Epidemics and intra-communal contestations: Ekeh, ‘les Guinéens’and Ebola in West Africa

AbstractAs the Ebola epidemic ravaged the Mano River Basin in 2014, there was concern in Senegal that the resident Peul community of Guinean origins will cause the spread of the disease to Senegal. These fears went unrealized as the Peul migrants embraced many of the epidemic control and prevention measures, which often distanced them from primordial publics in Guinea. While partly motivated by concern over the dangers of Ebola, Peul migrants embraced these measures also because the epidemic and measures advocated to curb it allowed them to assert greater autonomy in their often-fractious relations with primordial publics in their places of origin in Guinea. Their embrace of these measures suggests a rethink of the emphasis on intercommunal strife, intra-communal conviviality and trenchant state-society chasms, which pervades much work on the political economy of postcolonial Africa and which draws significant inspiration from the work of Peter Ekeh.

Drug Overdoses in Pennsylvania: Measuring, Tracking, and Forecasting the Epidemic

Among the many challenges for public officials in controlling the opioid epidemic, one major problem is how to accurately measure, track, and forecast the epidemic’s course, and how to reliably assess the effectiveness—and cost-­effectiveness—of epidemic control measures. In this review we summarize available epidemiological data on substance use disorders and their complications that can be useful to measure and track the epidemic in Pennsylvania. We examine the data through the lens of a systems approach, with the goal of using epidemiological data to create and parameterize dynamic models of the epidemic. We suggest that by integrating a variety of datasets into systems models, it should be possible to forecast and predict the future trajectory of the epidemic and make appropriate decisions on how to mitigate the epidemic. In addition, we identify several potentially valuable data sources that are currently underused for public health decision making.

The spread and prediction of Ebola virus

Ebola virus is a potent infectious disease virus that can cause Ebola haemorrhagic fever caused by human and primate. It has high mortality and easy infectivity to form a great obstacle to the steady development of human society. The profound understanding of the virus is particularly important harm. In this paper, a number of mathematical models are established to solve this problem. The software is used to analyze and predict the propagation of Ebola virus. The residual analysis is used to test the model. Finally, the effects of various control measures on controlling the epidemic are analyzed. In order to solve the problem, we will establish the infectious disease model to dynamically describe the spread of the virus in the 'virtual orangutan population'. Considering that the latent population is analyzed in this question, we will improve the model. Join the latent group (), and the migrants are divided into self-healing () and the dead (), to establish a suitable solution to this problem model. According to the relevant data given in the title, differential equations were established. For the second question, this question involves the one-way transmission of the virus across the species, so we can improve the model, on the basis of human contact with orangutans infected groups, the establishment of a one-way model to solve this problem. On the basis of the problem one, the differential equation is established, the model is predicted and tested. In the case of question 3, the number of human susceptible groups is much higher than that of the orangutan infection group by comparing the relevant data with the increase of the cure rate to 80% after the intervention of the outside experts. Therefore, the original data of human populations from experts can be ignored. Since then the virus spreads within a single species, the differential equation can be established according to the model in question 1 and the data values in the virtual human population are predicted. For question 4, the effect of the measures such as the strict enforcement of the various epidemic control measures and the improvement of the drug effect on the control of the epidemic are analyzed by comparing the above-mentioned models with the control measures.

The origin of Ebola: Biomedical approach versus popular interpretations in Macenta, Guinea

In December 2013, a two-year-old child died from viral haemorrhagic fever in Méliandou village in the South-East of Guinea, and constituted the likely index case of a major epidemic. When the virus was formally identified as Ebola, epidemiologists started to investigate the chains of transmission, while local people were trying to make sense out of these deaths. The epidemic control measures taken by national and international health agencies were soon faced by strong reluctance and a sometimes aggressive attitude of the affected communities. Preliminary ethnographic observations were carried out by ST in Macenta (Forest region) during an assignment (October-November 2014) for the Global Outbreak and Alert Response Network (GOARN) of the World Health Organization. ST carried out participative observation, informal conversations and in-depth interviews to identify the rumours and their sources, understand the local population's perception and knowledge about the history and origin of the Ebola outbreak in Guinea. Epidemiologists involved in the outbreak response attributed the first Ebola deaths in the Forest region to the transmission of a virus by contact with fluids of patients, but other Guinean citizens believed these deaths were caused by the breach of a taboo. The epidemiological and popular explanations, mainly evolving in parallel, but sometimes overlapping, are driven by different explanatory models, a biomedical model and a traditional-religious model. The outbreak response must be flexible and must systematically document popular discourse(s), rumours, codes, practices, knowledge and opinions related to the outbreak and use this information to shape and adapt its control interventions.

Pre-epidemic preparedness and the control of Lassa fever in Southern Nigeria

The outbreak of Viral Haemorrhagic Fevers (VHF) in the West African sub region in recent times had negative consequences on the health systems, international travels, movements and trades. Nigeria is still battling with a significant spread of Lassa Fever (LF) outbreak. The country seems not to have learnt from past epidemics most especially the 2014 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak. After the declaration of Nigeria EVD free, most control arsenals were relaxed, isolation and quarantine structures were dismantled and preventive efforts such as provision of Personal Protective Equipments (PPE) for the use of the vulnerable health care workers were not sustained. Several search engines were used in surfing the internet while looking for literatures and systematic reviews on the epidemiology and control of Lassa fever in the West African sub-region, and narrowing down the search to Nigeria. This review presented findings from past outbreaks of Lassa fever in Nigeria and the control strategies adopted, including a review of several researches on the subject matter. Author also presented a framework of epidemic disease control for Lassa fever and other VHFs in line with WHO recommendations: It was observed that past epidemic control measures in Nigeria were not sustained, with little or no emphasis on preparedness. There should be a change in the past strategies employed by the health authorities. There is a need to establish a multi-sectoral epidemic preparedness team to create an enabling environment for managing epidemic alert and response as well as evaluating prevention and control, measures. Recommendations for the roles and responsibilities and modes of operation of such preparedness team were also made. Key words: Lassa fever, Preparedness, Epidemics, Nigeria, Prevention and control.

Rites of Mobility and Epidemic Control: Ebola Virus Disease in the Mano River Basin

When understood as an embedded practice in the Mano River Basin, the issue of mobility need not threaten Ebola Virus Disease epidemic control efforts. Rites of mobility in the Mano River Basin ensure that migrants are often enmeshed in circuits of knowledge and compliance that have important implications for epidemic control. Local hosts, with whom migrants frequently have very intimate relations, often know a lot about their migrant guests and can exercise significant influence over them. If properly engaged by public health officials, these hosts could offer significant leverage in mapping geographies of transmission as well as in promoting compliance with epidemic control measures.

Rites of Mobility and Epidemic Control: Ebola Virus Disease in the Mano River Basin

<p class="p1">When understood as an embedded practice in the Mano River Basin, the issue of mobility need not threaten Ebola Virus Disease epidemic control efforts. Rites of mobility in the Mano River Basin ensure that migrants are often enmeshed in circuits of knowledge and compliance that have important implications for epidemic control. Local hosts, with whom migrants frequently have very intimate relations, often know a lot about their migrant guests and can exercise significant influence over them. If properly engaged by public health officials, these hosts could offer significant leverage in mapping geographies of transmission as well as in promoting compliance with epidemic control measures.

Prevalence, Awareness and Factors Associated with Hypertension among Adult Residents in Lagos: A Population Based Study

Background: Hypertension is a global public health problem in both developed and developing countries. It is estimated that 75% of the world hypertensive patients in 2025 will be in developing Original Research Article Daniel et al.; BJMMR, 8(10): 874-882, 2015; Article no.BJMMR.2015.518 875 countries including Nigeria. There is need to understand the nature of the epidemic and institute control measures to reverse the increasing tide of the disease in developing countries. Methodology: A descriptive cross-sectional survey carried out among Lagos residents between May and June 2012 in four Local Government Areas namely Alimosho, Mushin, Ajegunle/Ifelodun and Kosofe. The study variables were age, sex, occupation, education, marital status, religion and BMI while the outcome variable were frequency of hypertension and mean blood pressure. Statistical analysis included the use of proportions, percentages, chi-square, ‘t’ test and logistic regression using SPSS version 21 Results: A total of 4088 adults aged between 20-81 years (male = 1465 and females= 2623) were included in this study. The overall prevalence of hypertension was 40.9%. Hypertension increased with age in both males and females. Of the 1673 respondents identified as having hypertension, only 316 (18.9%) respondents were previously aware of their diagnosis. Of the 316 known hypertensive patients, only 20 (6.3%) had their blood pressure within the normal range. Age, gender, marital status and BMI were socio-demographic factors associated with hypertension. Conclusion: The prevalence of hypertension and obesity were found to be high in Lagos state. The need for public health actions to avert the consequences of the high prevalence of hypertension.cannot be over-emphasized.

Random and targeted interventions for epidemic control in metapopulation models.

In general, different countries and communities respond to epidemics in accordance with their own control plans and protocols. However, owing to global human migration and mobility, strategic planning for epidemic control measures through the collaboration of relevant public health administrations is gaining importance for mitigating and containing large-scale epidemics. Here, we present a framework to evaluate the effectiveness of random (non-strategic) and targeted (strategic) epidemic interventions for spatially separated patches in metapopulation models. For a random intervention, we analytically derive the critical fraction of patches that receive epidemic interventions, above which epidemics are successfully contained. The analysis shows that the heterogeneity of patch connectivity makes it difficult to contain epidemics under the random intervention. We demonstrate that, particularly in such heterogeneously connected networks, targeted interventions are considerably effective compared to the random intervention. Our framework is useful for identifying the target areas where epidemic control measures should be focused.

Epidemiologic modeling in the Department of Defense: capability and coordination opportunities.

INTRODUCTION Epidemiological models increasingly help to guide preparation for and response to public health emergencies. For example, the Secretary’s Advisory Council on Public Health Preparedness, in the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), formed a smallpox modeling working group in 2002 to guide national bioterrorism planning. The White House consulted modeling groups supported by the National Institutes of Health to assess pandemic mitigation strategies when the influenza A(H5N1) and influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 strains emerged. In the United Kingdom, authorities used modeling results in establishing control measures during the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak. Real-time biosurveillance systems model epidemiologic patterns to identify possible disease outbreaks. Epidemiologic models also facilitate evaluation of epidemic control measures once used, such as HIV treatment as a prevention strategy. The U.S. National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Implementation Plan, issued in 2006, requires the HHS, in coordination with the Department of Defense (DoD) and Department of Homeland Security, to establish a “modeling center with real-time epidemic analysis capabilities” to support policyand decision-makers. This center is currently under development in the HHS Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response/Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (ASPR/BARDA). Within the DoD, various organizations support or conduct epidemiologic modeling, and could constitute part of the interagency network centered within HHS. However, in workshops held by the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center (AFHSC) or the DoD Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (DoD-GEIS; now part of the AFHSC) in 2005–2010, and by U.S. Northern Command (USNORTHCOM) in 2005, participants noted that the DoD lacks formal procedures for coordinating across these programs. As a result, DoD decision-makers sometimes have received conflicting results from different models or modeling efforts, with no procedures in place to reconcile conflicts or ensure transparency of methods, assumptions, and data across efforts. As a step toward improved epidemiologic modeling capabilities and coordination in the DoD, the AFHSC convened the DoD Epidemiologic Modeling Coordination Working Group (WG) in February 2013 in an effort to identify, coordinate, and assess current DoD efforts, and provide recommendations for improving them.

Two Aircraft Carriers’ Perspectives: A Comparative of Control Measures in Shipboard H1N1 Outbreaks

The USS George Washington (GW) and the USS Ronald Reagan (RR), 2 US Navy aircraft carriers, experienced almost simultaneous outbreaks of novel H1N1 influenza A in the summer of 2009. We compared the respective epidemic control measures taken and subsequent lessons learned. Data were collated from both outbreaks to assess various elements including attack rate, isolation/quarantine protocols, and treatment methods. The respective duration of each outbreak was compared with survival curve analysis. The number of personnel affected in each outbreak was compared using χ2 analysis. Differences were found in the protocols used on the 2 ships. The GW treated about two-thirds of the patients with oseltamivir through day 14 and quarantined all patients meeting case definition throughout the outbreak. Face masks were used throughout. The RR used oseltamivir and quarantined many fewer patients (through days 5 and 3, respectively). No face masks were used after day 5. The outbreaks were similar in duration (GW = 25 days, RR = 27 days, P = .38), but the RR had significantly more cases (n = 253 vs 142, P < .0001). A portion of each group had samples that were confirmed H1N1 by polymerase chain reaction. GW's protocol, including aggressive oseltamivir treatment of two-thirds of the cases and quarantine throughout the duration decreased the overall number of personnel affected, likely reducing the overall control reproduction number. Both outbreaks were similar in duration. Even though the GW expended significantly more resources than the RR, if the 2009 pandemic H1N1 strain had been as clinically severe as the 1918 pandemic, a more stringent treatment protocol may have been the only way to prevent significant operational impact.

Dengue fever outbreak in Lima, Peru 2009: Epidemiological changes in urban areas

Background: Dengue fever is endemic in Peru. The epidemic potential for dengue transmission north of Lima city has spread alarmingly in the last four years. A dengue outbreak occurs during March to June 2009 in three districts of Lima. The 2005 and 2007 outbreaks of dengue fever occurred in these districts only one circulating serotype in each outbreak. Epidemiological investigation was conducted to determine the distribution of cases, serotype circulation, symptoms and signs of dengue fever in order to identify transmission and epidemic control measures. Methods: Analysis of cases of the outbreak investigation conducted by the network of epidemiology at the Department of Health V Lima City. The information was collected and processed through software NotiSp. Suspected case was considered a person with a history of fever for 2 to 7 days and two or more of the following symptoms: headache, retroocular, myalgia, arthralgia, rash and hemorrhagic manifestations residing in the districts of Carabayllo, Comas and Independence. The cases were registered in epidemiological records, blood samples were taken to determine seroconversion and identification of circulating serotypes. Results: Of 552 cases suspects, 148 (26.8%) were positive for IgM antibody detection of specific dengue indicating primary infection and 99 cases were obtained by PCR serotypes: DEN-3 (74%), DEN-1 (24%) and DEN-4 (2%). Most cases (45%) were adults between 20 and 59 years of age. The median age was 34 years. Women were more affected than men (56% and 44% respectively). The most frequent symptoms were fever (95%), headache (90%), body ache (86%), bone pain (75%) and pain retroocular (70%). The outbreak investigation revealed a cluster of four clusters that could be because they have areas favourable for breeding of the vector, such as presence of disposable plastic containers, clearing rocks, water shortages and the migration of people to Lima from dengue endemic areas. Conclusion: The outbreak investigation confirmed the presence of dengue as an emerging public health problem in Lima, identifying the co-circulation of three serotypes, demonstrating dengue epidemiological changes, so it is important to strengthen surveillance actions epidemiological and vector control in these areas during the coming years. Abstracts for SupplementInternational Journal of Infectious DiseasesVol. 14Preview Full-Text PDF Open Archive

Epidemic Outbreaks, Diagnostics, and Control Measures of the H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, 2007–08

The first outbreak of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) occurred in two "backyard" flocks of Houbara bustards and falcons in February 2007. Subsequent outbreaks were seen through the end of 2007 in "backyard" birds including native chickens, ostriches, turkeys, ducks, and peacocks. From November 2007 through January 2008, H5N1 HPAI outbreaks occurred in 19 commercial poultry premises, including two broiler breeder farms, one layer breeder farm, one ostrich farm, and 15 commercial layer farms, with approximately 4.75 million birds affected. Laboratory diagnosis of all H5N1-positive cases was conducted at the Central Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory (CVDL) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. A combination of diagnostic tests was used to confirm the laboratory diagnosis. A rapid antigen-capture test and real-time reverse transcriptase-PCR (rtRT-PCR) assay on clinical and field specimens were conducted initially. Meanwhile, virus isolation in specific-pathogen-free embryonating chicken eggs was performed and was followed by hemagglutinin (HA) and hemagglutination inhibition tests, then rapid antigen-capture and rtRT-PCR tests on HA-positive allantoic fluid samples. In most HPAI cases, a complete laboratory diagnosis was made within 24-48 hr at the CVDL. Saudi Arabian government officials made immediate decisions to depopulate all H5N1-affected and nonaffected flocks within a 5-km radius area and applied quarantine zones to prevent the virus from spreading to other areas. Other control measures, such as closure of live bird markets and intensive surveillance tests on all poultry species within quarantine zones, were in place during the outbreaks. As a result, the HPAI outbreaks were quickly controlled, and no positive cases were detected after January 29, 2008. The KSA was declared free of HPAI on April 30, 2008, by the World Animal Health Organization.

Epidemic Outbreaks, Diagnostics, and Control Measures of the H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, 2007–08

Epidemic Outbreaks, Diagnostics, and Control Measures of the H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, 2007–08

Custos diretos do programa de prevenção e controle da dengue no Município de São Paulo em 2005

To estimate the direct costs associated with the control of Aedes aegypti and prevention of dengue fever in the City of São Paulo Dengue Control Program, Brazil, in 2005. The following items were considered: human resources, uniforms, field materials, individual protection equipment, spraying equipment, strategic supplies (insecticides and larvicides), and vehicles. The costs associated with laboratory tests for entomological surveillance and dengue fever diagnosis were also calculated, as well as costs relating to information and printed materials for educational campaigns. The total direct costs of the City of São Paulo Dengue Fever Program in 2005 were R$ 21,774,282.82 (US$ 12,486,941.34 considering the dollar/real exchange rate in December 2009). Of this amount, 59.4% were directed to human resources, 38.3% to epidemic control measures, and 2.2% to capital expenditure. The cost per capita was R$ 1.99 in 2005. The control of dengue fever is essential given the growth of epidemics. Knowledge about the costs of strategies and priority items employed in dengue fever control and prevention programs can guide decision-making regarding the application of budget resources in both the City of São Paulo and Brazil as a whole.

The Impact of Epidemic Outbreak

Previous studies revealed that there was a significant increase in suicide deaths among those aged 65 and over in 2003. The peak coincided with the majority of SARS cases being reported in April 2003. In this paper we examine the mechanism of how the SARS outbreak resulted in a higher completed suicide rate especially among older adults in Hong Kong. We used Qualitative data analysis to uncover the association between the occurrence of SARS and older adult suicide. Furthermore, we used a qualitative study based on the Coroner Court reports to provide empirical evidence about the relationship between SARS and the excessive number of suicide deaths among the elderly. SARS-related older adult suicide victims were more likely to be afraid of contracting the disease and had fears of disconnection. The suicide motives among SARS-related suicide deaths were more closely associated with stress over fears of being a burden to their families during the negative impact of the epidemic. Social disengagement, mental stress, and anxiety at the time of the SARS epidemic among a certain group of older adults resulted in an exceptionally high rate of suicide deaths. We recommend that the mental and psychological well-being of the community, in particular older adults, be taken into careful account when developing epidemic control measures to combat the future outbreak of diseases in the community. In addition, it is important to alert family members to vulnerable individuals who are at potential risk because of their illnesses or anxieties.

The SARS-Associated Stigma of SARS Victims in the Post-SARS Era of Hong Kong

This article explores the disease-associated stigma attached to the SARS victims in the post-SARS era of Hong Kong. I argue that the SARS-associated stigma did not decrease over time. Based on the ethnographic data obtained from 16 months of participant observation in a SARS victims' self-help group and semistructured interviews, I argue that the SARS-associated stigma was maintained, revived, and reconstructed by the biomedical encounters, government institutions, and public perception. I also provide new insight on how the SARS-associated stigma could create problems for public health development in Hong Kong. As communicable diseases will be a continuing threat for the human society, understanding how the disease-associated stigma affects the outcomes of epidemic control measures will be crucial in developing a more responsive public health policy as well as medical follow-up and social support service to the diseased social groups of future epidemic outbreaks.