Epidemic Burden Research Articles

Discordant performance of mpox serological assays

BackgroundSince July 23, 2022, global mpox cases reached 92,546, with over 31,000 in the United States. Asymptomatic carriage is a critical mechanism influencing the global dissemination of mpox. Seroprevalence studies are crucial for determining the epidemic's true burden, but uncertainties persist in serologic assay performance and how smallpox vaccination may influence assay interpretation. ObjectivesOur study aimed to assess the performance of several diagnostic assays among mpox-positive, vaccinated, and pre-outbreak negative control samples. This investigation sought to enhance our understanding and management of future mpox outbreaks. Study designSerum samples from 10 mpox-positive, five vaccinated uninfected, and 137 pre-outbreak controls were obtained for serological testing. The mpox-positive samples were obtained around 100 days post symptom onset, and vaccinated patients were sampled approximately 90 days post-vaccination. Multiple diagnostic assays were employed, including four commercial ELISAs (Abbexa, RayBioTech, FineTest, ProteoGenix) and a multiplex assay (MesoScale Diagnostics (MSD)) measuring five mpox and five smallpox antigens. ResultsThree commercial ELISA kits had low specificity (<50 %). The Proteogenix ELISA targeting the E8L antigen had a 94 % sensitivity and 87 % specificity. The E8L antigen on the MSD assay exhibited the greatest distinction between exposure groups, with 98 % sensitivity and 93 % specificity. ConclusionsNone of the assays could distinguish between mpox-positive and vaccinated samples. The MSD assay targeting the MPXV E8L antigen demonstrated the greatest differentiation between mpox-positive and pre-outbreak negative samples. Our findings underscore the imperative to identify sensitive and specific assays to monitor population-level mpox exposure and infection.

Clinical epidemiology of Epstein-Barr virus-associated Lymphoproliferative Disorders (EBV-LPDs) in hospitalized children: A six-year multi-institutional study in China

BackgroundEpstein-Barr virus-associated lymphoproliferative disorders (EBV-LPDs) are a group of disorders involving lymphoid tissues or lymphocytes. The epidemiology and economic burden of hospitalized children with EBV-LPDs in China have not been well studied. This study aimed to reveal the epidemic characteristics and disease burden of EBV-LPDs among the Chinese hospitalized children, providing strategies for the prevention and management.MethodsThis study was based on the FUTang Updating medical REcords (FUTURE) database of China and collected the medical records from 27 tertiary children’s hospitals between January 2016 and December 2021 in China, counting five types of EBV-LPDs, namely EBV-positive T-cell lymphoproliferative disease, NK/T cell lymphoma, extranodal NK/T-cell lymphoma (nasal type), systemic EBV-positive T-cell lymphoproliferative disease of childhood and posttransplant lymphoproliferative disorders. We conducted a retrospective syhthesis and analysis of the epidemiological characteristics, expenses, length of stay (LOS), as well as complications among hospitalized children diagnosed with five types of EBV-LPDs and compared parameters using appropriate statistical tests.ResultsThe study described 153 children aged 0–18 years hospitalized with EBV-LPDs from 2016 to 2021 in the FUTURE database. The male-to-female ratio was 1.10:1, and more than half of the age distribution was in the 6–12 y group. Among EBV-LPDs cases, EBV+ T-LPD accounted for the largest proportion (65.36%). Complications were presented in 93 children with EBV-LPDs, mainly hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH). The median LOS of NKTL was 26.5 days [interquartile range (IQR) = 3–42], which was the longest among EBV-LPDs. The median hospitalization cost of PTLD was 10 785.74 United States dollars (IQR = 7 329.38–16 531.18), which was the heaviest among EBV-LPDs.ConclusionsCompared with the total number of hospitalized children in China during the same period and in the same age group, the proportion of EBV-LPD is very low. EBV-LPD can develop in all age groups, but it is more common in school-age children. Among 5 EBV-LPDs, the disease with the highest proportion is EBV+ T-LPD. The overall disease burden of EBV-LPD was heavy, especially the economic burden. HLH was one of the most common complications, which could directly affect the burden of patients because of prolonged hospitalization. These data are taken from a very large database, illustrating the epidemiological and economic burden of EBV-LPDs hospitalized children in China, which enriched the existing epidemiological and disease burden content of EBV-LPDs.

The misuse of codeine containing medicines: Perceptions and behaviours of qualified pharmacy professionals.

Pharmacy professionals working in community pharmacies frequently provide pharmacist-initiated therapy, including codeine-containing medicines. Codeine is an opioid with great potential for misuse, adding to the global opioid epidemic burden. Professional pharmacy personnel are the first intervention point in relation to management of codeine use. This study highlights the importance of pharmacy professionals' perceptions and behaviours in combatting the opioid epidemic. A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted. Simple random sampling included pharmacy professionals in the metropolitan city of Johannesburg. An electronic questionnaire was distributed via e-mail and data analysed descriptively. Findings indicate that pharmacy personnel routinely ask patients about codeine use (n= 48; 53.9%), avoid dispensing over-the-counter (OTC) codeine as an initial treatment (n= 61; 69%) and express confidence to identify and manage codeine misuse (n= 69; 77.5%). Despite this, increased patient demands for OTC codeine (n= 69; 77.5%) were concerning, highlighting the ease of availability from internet sources (n= 76; 85.4%) and multiple pharmacies (n= 84; 94.4%). Apprehension about the lack of patient awareness on adverse health consequences (n= 66; 74.2%) and the risk of codeine dependence (n= 79; 88.8%) was expressed. Growing concern regarding availability and accessibility of codeine-containing medicines within the community pharmacy sector is highlighted. Adverse health consequences of codeine misuse and dependence are not understood by customers and the ineffective information provided by pharmacy personnel was highlighted as a concern.Contribution:The results of this study give insight to the influence of dispensing personnel's attitude towards the growing challenges with respect to codeine containing medication abuse.

Opioid Use Disorder among Hospitalized Adults in North Carolina: Analysis from the 2000-2020 NC State Inpatient Database.

Opioid use disorder (OUD) is characterized as a chronic condition that was first outlined in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition, and now the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition, Text Revision. It encompasses frequent opioid usage, cravings, the development of tolerance, withdrawal symptoms upon discontinuation, unsuccessful attempts to quit or reduce use, and recurrent use even when faced with negative consequences. Both national- and state-level data show that overdose deaths associated with prescription opioids are increasing at an alarming rate. The increasing overdose deaths from illicitly manufactured fentanyl and other synthetic opioids compound this epidemic's burden. The present study sought to determine the prevalence and potential factors associated with OUD in North Carolina. Using the State Inpatient Database, a retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted to identify OUD-related discharges between 2000 and 2020. Descriptive statistics and rates of OUD per 1000 discharges were calculated. Simple and multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with increased odds of having an opioid use disorder diagnosis at discharge. The deviance-Pearson goodness of fit statistic was also used. Variables were identified using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification, and International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification, codes in the discharge records. Of 19,370,483 hospitalizations that occurred between 2000 and 2020 in North Carolina, 483,250 were associated with OUD, a prevalence rate of 24.9 cases per 1000 discharges. The highest OUD rates were seen among adults who self-paid for their hospitalization, those with Medicaid, and those with other types of payors such as Workers' Compensation and the Indian Health Service; individuals between 25 and 54 years old; tobacco and alcohol users; Native American patients; patients located in urban areas; patients with lower household income; White patients; and female patients. OUD also was associated with increased odds of having one or more comorbid psychiatric disorders when controlling for other factors. Although preventive measures are crucial, including policies that discourage prescribing opioids for noncancer pain and those that target the manufacturing and distribution of synthetic opioids, providing integrated care for patients with OUD and co-occurring psychiatric and/or physical disorders is equally important. These findings suggest the need for a system-wide public health response focused on the expansion of primary prevention and treatment efforts, including crisis services, harm reduction services, and recovery programs.

A comparative cost assessment of coalescing epidemic control strategies in heterogeneous social-contact networks

The outcome of an epidemic is contingent upon the mitigating control strategies deployed by policymakers. The deployment of control strategies is constrained by the cost of economic, social, and technological factors, which often depend on regional conditions. Our model facilitates a comparative assessment of costs between two interconnected subpopulations within a heterogeneous social-contact network, which may deploy either aligned or divergent control strategies, as is frequently the case for neighboring countries. Depending on their respective asymmetric resources, each subpopulation can deploy a contact confinement strategy, a vaccination strategy, or a hybrid of both. The multi-objective goal of minimizing both the epidemic burden and the economic cost from policy implementation and productivity losses is compounded using a scaled scalarization method. Due to the inter-dependence of policy outcomes, the optimal strategy is derived from the Nash equilibrium in a 2-player compounded pay-off matrix of the total cost. Our network-based model implements a probabilistic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Dead dynamics. It also includes the effects of ego-network support and waning immunity modulated by re-exposure to viral contaminants (‘SEIRSD’). Robust outcomes of repeated network simulations with COVID-19 parameters are examined. Our method aims to equip policymakers in a negotiation process with a comparative cost matrix for divergent mitigation policies and to identify the optimal Nash-based strategy profile.

Declining Trend of HIV Seroprevalence in Pregnant Women: A Retrospective Observational Analysis of 12 Years’ Experience at a Tertiary Care Hospital in Central India

Introduction: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection among antenatal women has been reported throughout the country, with a relatively high prevalence in the state of Maharashtra. Data on HIV seroprevalence in antenatal women serve as an indirect indicator of the HIV epidemic's burden in the general population and aid in predicting the same in young children. Diagnostic and treatment services for HIV are concentrated in selected states and districts with high seroprevalence, making it necessary to accurately calculate the prevalence of HIV. Aim: To assess the effectiveness of Prevention of Parentto-Child Transmission (PPTCT) services and to study the effectiveness of the National Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) Control Programme (NACP) in the functioning of PPTCT services. Materials and Methods: A retrospective observational analysis of 12-year data, from January 2007 to December 2018, was conducted in the Department of Microbiology at the Government Medical College and Hospital, Nagpur, Maharashtra, representing Central India. Data collection took place from June 2019 to December 2019, and analysis occurred over the subsequent two months (January 2020 to February 2020). The total sample size was 101,865 patients. All pregnant women registered in the Antenatal Clinic (ANC) under the PPTCT Program were included in the present study, and Strategy III of the National HIV testing algorithm was followed. The women's ages, their partners' serostatus, and records of babies born to HIV seropositive mothers were obtained and analysed. The statistical analysis of the data was performed using Stata (version 10.4.2009, STATA Corp., Texas, USA) and Epi Info 7 (version 7.1.06, 2012, CDC, Atlanta, USA), employing the Chi-square test for linear trend (Extended Mantel-Haenszel). A p-value &lt;0.05 was considered significant. Results: The seroprevalence of HIV infection among pregnant women was 1.04% in 2007, decreasing to 0.23% by 2017. In 2009, 88.9% of women were counselled, and 100% were tested for HIV, with pretest counselling steadily increasing to 100% by 2012. The trend in HIV testing, however, remained at 100% over the span of 10 years. Post-test counselling varied from 89.6% to 99.9%, whereas the trend of HIV testing among partners fluctuated from 50% to 94.44%. The overall HIV positivity among babies, after 18 months of follow-up, was 4.77%. Conclusion: The HIV seroprevalence among the pregnant population is steadily declining. More and more women are availing themselves of the facilities at Integrated Counselling and Testing Centre (ICTC). Intensive health education and the availability of diagnostic and therapeutic services across the country have reduced the burden of the HIV/AIDS problem in the country

Influence of distinct social contexts of long-term care facilities on the dynamics of spread of COVID-19 under predefine epidemiological scenarios

Abstract More than half of the coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) related mortality rates in the United States and Europe are associated with long-term-care facilities (LTCFs) such as old-age organizations, nursing homes, and disability centers. These facilities are considered most vulnerable to spread of an pandemic like COVID-19 because of multiple reasons including high density of elderly population with a diverse range of medical requirements, limited resources, nursing activities/medications, and the role of external visitors. In this study, we aim to understand the role of visitor’s family members and specific interventions (such as use of face masks and restriction of visiting hours) on the dynamics of infection in a community using a mathematical model. The model considers two types of social contexts (community and LTCFs) with three different groups of interacting populations (non-mobile community individuals, mobile community individuals, and long-term facility residents). The goal of this work is to compare the outbreak burden between different centre of disease control (CDC) planning scenarios, which capture distinct types of intensity of diseases spread in LTCF observed during COVID-19 outbreak. The movement of community mobile members is captured via their average relative times in and out of the long-term facilities to understand the strategies that would work well in these facilities the CDC planning scenarios. Our results suggest that heterogeneous mixing worsens epidemic scenario as compared to homogeneous mixing and the epidemic burden is hundreds times greater for community spread than within the facility population.

Exploring spatial patterns of cardiovascular disease among women in India

Abstract Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has become a leading cause of mortality and morbidity in India, surpassing the global rate. While CVD is influenced by gender due to sex-specific risk factors in women, it remains underdiagnosed, and undertreated in women. WHO provides a list of ‘best buys’ which does not consider sex-specific risk factors. Hence, we assessed prevalence, unawareness and spatial variations of CVDs in women (15-49 years). We used NFHS (2019-20) WHO causal links between underlying drivers, behavioral risk factors, metabolic/physiological risk factors, and CVDs. We used ordinary kriging interpolation techniques to measure the spatial heterogeneity of CVD prevalence and spatial autocorrelation techniques using global Moran I statistic. Furthermore, ordinary least square were used to examine spatial predictors and geographically weighted regression and multiscale geographically weighted regression model were used to map the local spatial variations. CVDs prevalence in women is 11.7% [95%, CI: 0.117-0.118], its unawareness is 12% [95%, CI: 0.116-0.117] among women. Spatial regression analysis suggests observed geographical variation of CVDs significantly correlated with risk factors- metabolic (BMI), behavioral (tobacco consumption), and underlying (sex-specific - women's education as a proxy for autonomy and socioeconomic depriviation- household wealth). India has a high burden of CVDs in women, with state-level disparities and a lack of awareness about the disease. Women are not a target population for CVDs in SDG 3.4 and India's National Health policy, 2017; however, its rising epidemic burden on women demands a need for policy choices targeted at women. The study provides evidence to inform the policy choices in reducing CVDs burden in women. It suggests a need to develop gender-specific guidelines for CVD prevention and management in India. Key messages • The study provides evidence to inform the policy choices in reducing CVDs burden in women and suggests a need to develop gender-specific guidelines for CVD prevention and management in India. • India has high burden &amp; unawareness of CVDs in women with risk factors- BMI, tobacco consumption, sex-specific - women's education as a proxy for autonomy; socioeconomic deprivation- household wealth.

A Qualitative Investigation into the Trauma Exhibited by First Responders Impacted by the Opioid Epidemic.

This qualitative study aimed to capture the lived experiences of first responders (FRs) combatting the opioid epidemic in an effort to better understand how the increase in opioids, opioid-related harm, and opioid-related death has affected the FR profession. FRs (N = 30) from Tennessee partook in semi-structured interviews investigating the impact of responding to opioid-related incidents. Using a phenomenological approach, three response themes emerged including (1) opioid epidemic burden on FR mental health, (2) variable availability and effectiveness of resources, and (3) identified roles of FRs in reducing the impact of the epidemic. The findings indicate that FRs are experiencing posttraumatic stress and secondary traumatic stress symptoms due to a shift in their duties, as well as repeated exposures to the adverse impacts of opioid use. This study finds a deficit in resources and support to combat the mental health repercussions FRs have experienced due to the epidemic. Given that FRs are often directly involved in preventing opioid-related deaths, ensuring that they are well resourced is an essential component of harm reduction and will ultimately augment care for individuals experiencing opioid-related harm.

Reconstructing the Temporal Origin and the Transmission Dynamics of the HIV Subtype B Epidemic in St. Petersburg, Russia.

The HIV/AIDS epidemic in Russia is among the fastest growing in the world. HIV epidemic burden is non-uniform in different Russian regions and diverse key populations. An explosive epidemic has been documented among people who inject drugs (PWID) starting from the mid-1990s, whereas presently, the majority of new infections are linked to sexual transmission. Nationwide, HIV sub-subtype A6 (previously called AFSU) predominates, with the increasing presence of other subtypes, namely subtype B and CRF063_02A. This study explores HIV subtype B sequences from St. Petersburg, collected from 2006 to 2020, in order to phylogenetically investigate and characterize transmission clusters, focusing on their evolutionary dynamics and potential for further growth, along with a socio-demographic analysis of the available metadata. In total, 54% (107/198) of analyzed subtype B sequences were found grouped in 17 clusters, with four transmission clusters with the number of sequences above 10. Using Bayesian MCMC inference, tMRCA of HIV-1 subtype B was estimated to be around 1986 (95% HPD 1984-1991), whereas the estimated temporal origin for the four large clusters was found to be more recent, between 2001 and 2005. The results of our study imply a complex pattern of the epidemic spread of HIV subtype B in St. Petersburg, Russia, still in the exponential growth phase, and in connection to the men who have sex with men (MSM) transmission, providing a useful insight needed for the design of public health priorities and interventions.

Mass Screening of SARS-CoV-2 With Rapid Antigen Tests in a Receding Omicron Wave: Population-Based Survey for Epidemiologic Evaluation.

The COVID-19 Omicron BA.2 epidemic wave in Hong Kong peaked in the first quarter of 2022. Following the implementation of stringent public health measures, the daily number of reported cases fell from over 50,000 to below 2000. Although outbreaks steadily receded, the government rolled out a 3-day "voluntary universal rapid testing" campaign to invite all citizens to self-perform a rapid antigen test (RAT) daily to identify undetected prevalent infections. This study aimed to evaluate the uptake and results of RAT mass screening to estimate the population's residual epidemic burden and assess the risk of further transmission. A cross-sectional study comprising an open web-based population-based survey was conducted a week after the RAT campaign. Participants were asked to report their COVID-19 vaccination and infection history and the RAT performance and test result during the period. They were also invited to report their coliving individuals' test performance and results. Reasons for nonuptake were enquired. Testing and positive rates were age-adjusted. Determinants of undergoing RAT were identified using univariable and multivariable logistic regression models. In total, particulars from 21,769 individuals were reported by 8338 participants. The overall age-adjusted testing rate was 74.94% (95% CI 73.71%-76.18%), with over 80% of participants in the age groups between 45-84 years having self-performed RAT during the campaign period. After age-adjustment, 1.03% (95% CI 0.86%-1.21%) of participants tested positive. The positive rates in the age groups between 20-29 years and >84 years exceeded 2%. Taking into account the positive rate and 5819 reported cases during the period, the cases identified in the campaign might account for 7.65% (95% CI 6.47%-9.14%) of all infections. Testers were more likely to be female, older, not previously diagnosed with COVID-19, and have received COVID-19 vaccination. Adjusting for the number of household members, those living with a child aged <12 years and whose household members were also tested were more likely to have self-performed an RAT. Main reasons for not performing an RAT included the absence of symptoms (598/1108, 53.97%), disbelief of the appropriateness of the campaign as an antiepidemic measure (355/1108, 32.04%), and a recent COVID-19 diagnosis (332/1108, 29.96%). The residual population burden remained substantial in spite of the clear evidence of a receding epidemic wave. Despite caution in generalization to the Hong Kong population, the high participation rate in mass screening indicated that the voluntary RAT was well accepted, making it a feasible option for implementation as a complementary means of public health surveillance.

The effect of competition between health opinions on epidemic dynamics.

Past major epidemic events showed that when an infectious disease is perceived to cause severe health outcomes, individuals modify health behavior affecting epidemic dynamics. To investigate the effect of this feedback relationship on epidemic dynamics, we developed a compartmental model that couples a disease spread framework with competition of two mutually exclusive health opinions (health-positive and health-neutral) associated with different health behaviors. The model is based on the assumption that individuals switch health opinions as a result of exposure to opinions of others through interpersonal communications. To model opinion switch rates, we considered a family of functions and identified the ones that allow health opinions to coexist. Finally, the model includes assortative mixing by opinions. In the disease-free population, either the opinions cannot coexist and one of them is always dominating (mono-opinion equilibrium) or there is at least one stable coexistence of opinions equilibrium. In the latter case, there is multistability between the coexistence equilibrium and the two mono-opinion equilibria. When two opinions coexist, it depends on their distribution whether the infection can invade. If presence of the infection leads to increased switching to a health-positive opinion, the epidemic burden becomes smaller than indicated by the basic reproduction number. Additionally, a feedback between epidemic dynamics and health opinion dynamics may result in (sustained) oscillatory dynamics and a switch to a different stable opinion distribution. Our model captures feedback between spread of awareness through social interactions and infection dynamics and can serve as a basis for more elaborate individual-based models.

Competing control scenarios in probabilistic SIR epidemics on social-contact networks.

A probabilistic approach to the epidemic evolution on realistic social-contact networks allows for characteristic differences among subjects, including the individual number and structure of social contacts, and the heterogeneity of the infection and recovery rates according to age or medical preconditions. Within our probabilistic Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) model on social-contact networks, we evaluate the infection load or activation margin of various control scenarios; by confinement, by vaccination, and by their combination. We compare the epidemic burden for subpopulations that apply competing or cooperative control strategies. The simulation experiments are conducted on randomized social-contact graphs that are designed to exhibit realistic person–person contact characteristics and which follow near homogeneous or block-localized subpopulation spreading. The scalarization method is used for the multi-objective optimization problem in which both the infection load is minimized and the extent to which each subpopulation’s control strategy preference ranking is adhered to is maximized. We obtain the compounded payoff matrices for two subpopulations that impose contrasting control strategies, each according to their proper ranked control strategy preferences. The Nash equilibria, according to each subpopulation’s compounded objective, and according to their proper ranking intensity, are discussed. Finally, the interaction effects of the control strategies are discussed and related to the type of spreading of the two subpopulations.

The Assessment of a Personalized Nutrition Tool (eNutri) in Germany: Pilot Study on Usability Metrics and Users' Experiences.

BackgroundTo address the epidemic burden of diet-related diseases, adequate dietary intake assessments are needed to determine the actual nutrition intake of a population. In this context, the eNutri web app has been developed, providing online automated personalized dietary advice, based on nutritional information recorded via an integrated and validated food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Originally developed for a British population and their dietary habits, the eNutri tool has specifically been adapted to the German population, taking into account national eating habits and dietary recommendations.ObjectiveThe primary aim of this study is to evaluate the system usability and users’ experience and feedback on the eNutri app in a small-scale preliminary study. The secondary aim is to investigate the efficacy of personalized nutrition (PN) recommendations versus general dietary advice in altering eating habits.MethodsThe app was piloted for 4 weeks by 106 participants from across Germany divided into a PN group and a control group. The groups differed according to the degree of personalization of dietary recommendations obtained.ResultsAn overall System Usability Scale (SUS) score of 78.4 (SD 12.2) was yielded, indicating an above average user experience. Mean completion time of the FFQ was 26.7 minutes (SD 10.6 minutes). Across subgroups (age, sex, device screen sizes) no differences in SUS or completion time were found, indicating an equal performance for all users independent of the assigned experimental group. Participants’ feedback highlighted the need for more personalized dietary advice for controls, while personalized nutritional recommendations improved the awareness of healthy eating behavior. Further improvements to the eNutri app were suggested by the app users.ConclusionsIn total, the eNutri app has proven to be a suitable instrument to capture the dietary habits of a German population sample. Regarding functionality, system usability, and handling, direct user feedback was quite positive. Nutritional advice given was rated ambivalent, pointing to several weaknesses in the eNutri app, minimizing the system’s full potential. A higher level of personalization within nutritional advice subjectively improved the app’s usability. The insights gained will be used as a basis to further develop and improve this digital diet assessment tool.

Diagnostic scores and scales for appraising Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and omics perspectives for precision medicine.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a rising epidemic burden affecting around 25% of the global population. Liver biopsy remains the reference for NAFLD. However, the application of several scales and clinical algorithms have been proposed to diagnose NAFLD using prediction questions and blood biomarkers. This review presents a summarized of the currently available and emerging diagnostic biomarkers and scores used to assess NAFLD. The limitations of liver biopsy have fostered the development of alternative noninvasive strategies, which have been an area of intensive investigation over the past years. Diagnostic scores for NAFLD have shown to be a good alternative for disease diagnosis and prognosis due to a suitable applicability, good inter-laboratory reproducibility and widespread potential availability with reasonable costs. The growing NAFLD pandemic urges clinicians to seek alternatives for screening, early diagnosis, and follow-up, especially for those with contraindications for liver biopsy. New promising noninvasive biomarkers and techniques have been developed, evaluated and assessed, including diagnostic biomarkers scores. Moreover, multiomics markers panels involving phenotype, genotype, microbiome and clinical characteristics from patients will facilitate the diagnosis, stratification and prognosis of NAFLD patients with precision medicine approaches.

Heterogeneous adaptive behavioral responses may increase epidemic burden

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) constitute the front-line responses against epidemics. Yet, the interdependence of control measures and individual microeconomics, beliefs, perceptions and health incentives, is not well understood. Epidemics constitute complex adaptive systems where individual behavioral decisions drive and are driven by, among other things, the risk of infection. To study the impact of heterogeneous behavioral responses on the epidemic burden, we formulate a two risk-groups mathematical model that incorporates individual behavioral decisions driven by risk perceptions. Our results show a trade-off between the efforts to avoid infection by the risk-evader population, and the proportion of risk-taker individuals with relaxed infection risk perceptions. We show that, in a structured population, privately computed optimal behavioral responses may lead to an increase in the final size of the epidemic, when compared to the homogeneous behavior scenario. Moreover, we find that uncertain information on the individuals’ true health state may lead to worse epidemic outcomes, ultimately depending on the population’s risk-group composition. Finally, we find there is a set of specific optimal planning horizons minimizing the final epidemic size, which depend on the population structure.

Ultra-processed foods and cancer risk: from global food systems to individual exposures and mechanisms.

Ultra-processed foods (UPFs) have become increasingly dominant globally, contributing to as much as 60% of total daily energy intake in some settings. Epidemiological evidence suggests this worldwide shift in food processing may partly be responsible for the global obesity epidemic and chronic disease burden. However, prospective studies examining the association between UPF consumption and cancer outcomes are limited. Available evidence suggests that UPFs may increase cancer risk via their obesogenic properties as well as through exposure to potentially carcinogenic compounds such as certain food additives and neoformed processing contaminants. We identify priority areas for future research and policy implications, including improved understanding of the potential dual harms of UPFs on the environment and cancer risk. The prevention of cancers related to the consumption of UPFs could be tackled using different strategies, including behaviour change interventions among consumers as well as bolder public health policies needed to improve food environments.

Anti-CD47 antibody treatment attenuates liver inflammation and fibrosis in experimental non-alcoholic steatohepatitis models.

With the epidemic burden of obesity and metabolic diseases, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) including steatohepatitis (NASH) has become the most common chronic liver disease in the western world. NASH may progress to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Currently, no treatment is available for NASH. Therefore, finding a therapy for NAFLD/NASH is in urgent need. Previously we have demonstrated that mice lacking CD47 or its ligand thrombospondin1 (TSP1) are protected from obesity-associated NALFD. This suggests that CD47 blockade might be a novel treatment for obesity-associated metabolic disease. Thus, in this study, the therapeutic potential of an anti-CD47 antibody in NAFLD progression was determined. Both diet-induced NASH mouse model and human NASH organoid model were utilized in this study. NASH was induced in mice by feeding with diet enriched with fat, fructose and cholesterol (AMLN diet) for 20weeks and then treated with anti-CD47 antibody or control IgG for 4weeks. Body weight, body composition and liver phenotype were analysed. We found that anti-CD47 antibody treatment did not affect mice body weight, fat mass or liver steatosis. However, liver immune cell infiltration, inflammation and fibrosis were significantly reduced by anti-CD47 antibody treatment. In vitro data further showed that CD47 blockade prevented hepatic stellate cell activation and NASH progression in a human NASH organoid model. Collectively, these data suggest that anti-CD47 antibody might be a new therapeutic option for obesity-associated NASH and liver fibrosis.

Nanotheranostics: A powerful next-generation solution to tackle hepatocellular carcinoma.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an epidemic burden and remains highly prevalent worldwide. The significant mortality rates of HCC are largely due to the tendency of late diagnosis and the multifaceted, complex nature of treatment. Meanwhile, current therapeutic modalities such as liver resection and transplantation are only effective for resolving early-stage HCC. Hence, alternative approaches are required to improve detection and enhance the efficacy of current treatment options. Nanotheranostic platforms, which utilize biocompatible nanoparticles to perform both diagnostics and targeted delivery, has been considered a potential approach for cancer management in the past few decades. Advancement of nanomaterials and biomedical engineering techniques has led to rapid expansion of the nanotheranostics field, allowing for more sensitive and specific diagnosis, real-time monitoring of drug delivery, and enhanced treatment efficacies across various malignancies. The focus of this review is on the applications of nanotheranostics for HCC. The review first explores the current epidemiology and the commonly encountered obstacles in HCC diagnosis and treatment. It then presents the current technological and functional advancements in nanotheranostic technology for cancer in general, and then specifically explores the use of nanotheranostic modalities as a promising option to address the key challenges present in HCC management.

The Impact of Strict Public Health Measures on COVID-19 Transmission in Developing Countries: The Case of Kuwait.

Background: Many countries have succeeded in curbing the initial outbreak of COVID-19 by imposing strict public health control measures. However, little is known about the effectiveness of such control measures in curbing the outbreak in developing countries. In this study, we seek to assess the impact of various outbreak control measures in Kuwait to gain more insight into the outbreak progression and the associated healthcare burden.Methods: We use a SEIR mathematical model to simulate the first wave of the epidemic outbreak of COVID-19 in Kuwait with additional testing and hospitalization compartments. We calibrate our model by using a NBD observational framework for confirmed case and death counts. We simulate trajectories of model forecasts and assess the effectiveness of public health interventions by using maximum likelihood to estimate both the basic and effective reproduction numbers.Results: Our results indicate that the early strict control measures had the effect of delaying the intensity of the outbreak but were unsuccessful in reducing the effective reproduction number below 1. Forecasted model trajectories suggest a need to expand the healthcare system capacity to cope with the associated epidemic burden of such ineffectiveness.Conclusion: Strict public health interventions may not always lead to the same desired outcomes, particularly when population and demographic factors are not accounted for as in the case in some developing countries. Real-time dynamic modeling can provide an early assessment of the impact of such control measures as well as a forecasting tool to support outbreak surveillance and the associated healthcare expansion planning.