Abstract
Background: Many countries have succeeded in curbing the initial outbreak of COVID-19 by imposing strict public health control measures. However, little is known about the effectiveness of such control measures in curbing the outbreak in developing countries. In this study, we seek to assess the impact of various outbreak control measures in Kuwait to gain more insight into the outbreak progression and the associated healthcare burden.Methods: We use a SEIR mathematical model to simulate the first wave of the epidemic outbreak of COVID-19 in Kuwait with additional testing and hospitalization compartments. We calibrate our model by using a NBD observational framework for confirmed case and death counts. We simulate trajectories of model forecasts and assess the effectiveness of public health interventions by using maximum likelihood to estimate both the basic and effective reproduction numbers.Results: Our results indicate that the early strict control measures had the effect of delaying the intensity of the outbreak but were unsuccessful in reducing the effective reproduction number below 1. Forecasted model trajectories suggest a need to expand the healthcare system capacity to cope with the associated epidemic burden of such ineffectiveness.Conclusion: Strict public health interventions may not always lead to the same desired outcomes, particularly when population and demographic factors are not accounted for as in the case in some developing countries. Real-time dynamic modeling can provide an early assessment of the impact of such control measures as well as a forecasting tool to support outbreak surveillance and the associated healthcare expansion planning.
Highlights
In early December 2019, a cluster of pneumonia cases of unknown cause were reported in Wuhan, China [1]
Our estimated basic reproduction number is R0 = 1.43
The maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of the factor by which control measures reduce transmission was estimated at κ = 1
Summary
In early December 2019, a cluster of pneumonia cases of unknown cause were reported in Wuhan, China [1]. Many developing countries are struggling to control the COVID-19 outbreak, and little is known about the effectiveness of public health measures taken by countries with smaller populations and unique demographic profiles such as Kuwait. The government has implemented home and institutional quarantine measures to limit virus transmission from arrivals Despite these early and stringent control measures, community transmission remained observed as manifested by the apparent acceleration of case and death numbers well-beyond the anticipated period of slowdown. It was unclear how the outbreak would unfold during first wave as recent contact-tracing measures highlighted the widening community transmission. We seek to assess the impact of various outbreak control measures in Kuwait to gain more insight into the outbreak progression and the associated healthcare burden
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