EOF Mode Research Articles

Regional and seasonal variations of outdoor thermal comfort in China from 1966 to 2016

The optimized design of outdoor environment is of utmost importance due to its impact on human health, urban livability and energy consumption inside buildings. The outdoor thermal comfort and its spatiotemporal variations were assessed using Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). Annual and seasonal UTCI were calculated using the daily dataset collected from 591 stations in China between 1966 and 2016. A REOF-cluster-EOF hybrid model was developed to optimize regionalization and assess regional-scale variations for UTCI. The results showed the following: (1) UTCI values decreased due to the increase of the latitude in China except for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. 69.5% of the total area of China experienced “no thermal stress” conditions in summer, whereas it was only 7.7% in winter. Additionally, the outdoor environment in summer had a wider “thermal comfort zone” than that in other seasons. (2) China was divided into a small number of regions with coherent UTCI changes using REOF analysis and K-means clustering algorithm. Eight homogeneous regions were obtained for annual UTCI. From spring to winter, the numbers of homogeneous regions were eight, nine, ten and seven, respectively. (3) Using EOF analysis, dominant patterns of UTCI in each region were extracted by the first two EOF modes, which accounted for >60% of the total variance. In the first mode, the significant upward trends of UTCI were detected in each region, suggesting the stronger outdoor heat stress. In the second mode, UTCI showed fluctuation between the cold and warm periods with different turning points between regions. Overall, the outdoor thermal comfort seemed to be improved more in high-latitude regions than that in low-latitude regions.

Errors in Current Velocity in the Low-latitude North Pacific: Results from the Regional Ocean Modeling System

Using the Regional Ocean Modeling System, this study investigates the simulation uncertainties in the current velocity in the low-latitude North Pacific where the Kuroshio originates [i.e., the beginning of the Kuroshio (BK)]. The results show that the simulation uncertainties largely reflect the contributions of wind stress forcing errors, especially zonal wind stress errors, rather than initial or boundary errors. Using the idea of a nonlinear forcing singular vector, two types of zonal wind stress errors (but sharing one EOF mode) are identified from error samples derived from reanalysis data as having the potential to yield large simulation uncertainties. The type-1 error possesses a pattern with positive anomalies covering the two zonal bands of 0°–15°N and 25°–40°N in the Pacific Ocean, with negative anomalies appearing between these two bands; while the type-2 error is almost opposite to the type-1 error. The simulation uncertainties induced by the type-1 and −2 errors consist of both large-scale circulation errors controlled by a mechanism similar to the Sverdrup relation and mesoscale eddy-like errors generated by baroclinic instability. The type-1 and −2 errors suggest two areas: one is located between the western boundary and the meridional 130°E along 15°–20°N, and the other is located between 140°–150°E and along 15°–20°N. The reduction of errors over these two areas can greatly improve the simulation accuracy of the current velocity at BK. These two areas represent sensitive areas for targeted observations associated with the simulation of the current velocity at BK.

Factors Limiting the Forecast Skill of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation in a Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Model

In this study, we evaluate the forecast skill of the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction model of the Beijing Climate Center (BCC) for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO). We also discuss the key factors that inhibit the BSISO forecast skill in this model. Based on the bivariate anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) of the BSISO index, defined by the first two EOF modes of outgoing longwave radiation and 850-hPa zonal wind anomalies over the Asian monsoon region, we found that the hindcast skill degraded as the lead time increased. The ACC dropped to below 0.5 for lead times of 11 days and longer when the predicted BSISO showed weakened strength and insignificant northward propagation. To identify what causes the weakened forecast skill of BSISO at the forecast lead time of 11 days, we diagnosed the main mechanisms responsible for the BSISO northward propagation. The same analysis was also carried out using the observations and the outputs of the four-day forecast lead that successfully predicted the observed northward-propagating BSISO. We found that the lack of northward propagation at the 11-day forecast lead was due to insufficient increases in low-level cyclonic vorticity, moistening and warm temperature anomalies to the north of the convection, which were induced by the interaction between background mean flows and BSISO-related anomalous fields. The BCC S2S model can predict the background monsoon circulations, such as the low-level southerly and the northerly and easterly vertical shears, but has limited capability in forecasting the distributions of circulation and moisture anomalies.

Seasonal prediction skill and predictability of the Northern Hemisphere storm track variability in Project Minerva

The seasonal prediction skill and predictability of the Northern Hemisphere storm track anomalies in boreal winter (December–January–February, DJF) is examined using seasonal ensemble reforecasts for 1982–2009 from the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System at two different atmospheric resolutions in Project Minerva. It is found that the predictable signals of storm track variations are associated with the two leading EOF modes of ensemble-averaged DJF variances of the high-pass filtered daily meridional winds at 250-hPa level derived from each of the hindcast ensemble members. These two EOF modes are highly correlated both temporarily and spatially between two sets of reforecasts. The first mode (EOF1) mainly shows a latitudinal shift of the storm tracks over the central-eastern North Pacific and the North America continent. The second mode (EOF2) is primarily the pulsing signal exerting on the mean storm track background of the North Pacific. The model predictive skill is verified against observations. The first mode has higher prediction skills and larger skillful regions than the second one. In particular, the first predictable mode is generated by the ENSO-induced wave train, starting from tropical central Pacific and propagating to North America. The skillful region lies in the North Pacific to the west of California, corresponding to the southern lobe of EOF1. The second predictable mode is generated by the North Pacific Mode, which evokes a distinctive wave train, emanating from the tropical western Pacific and propagating northeastward. Its skillful region of the storm track prediction is confined to a small area of Canada western coastlines.

Weather-Induced Transport through a Tidal Channel Calibrated by an Unmanned Boat

AbstractAn unmanned surface vehicle (USV) was designed and constructed to operate continuously for covering both flood and ebb and preferably a complete tidal cycle (e.g., ~24 h) to measure the vertical profiles of horizontal flow velocity. It was applied in a tidal channel at Port Fourchon, Louisiana. A bottom-mounted ADCP was deployed for 515 days. The first EOF mode of the velocity profiles showed a barotropic type of flow that explained more than 98.2% of the variability. The second mode showed a typical estuarine flow with two layers, which explained 0.47% of the variability. Using a linear regression of the total transport from the USV with the vertically averaged velocity from the bottom-mounted ADCP, with an R-squared value of 98%, the total along-channel transport throughout the deployment was calculated. A low-pass filtering of the transport allowed for examining the impact of 76 events with cold, warm, or combined cold–warm fronts passing the area. The top seven most severe events were discussed, as their associated transports obviously stood out in the time series, indicating the importance of weather. It is shown that large-scale weather systems with frontal lines of ~1500–3000-km horizontal length scale control the subtidal transport in the area. Cold (warm) fronts tend to generate outward (inward) transports, followed by a rebound. The maximum coherence between the atmospheric forcing and the ocean response reached ~71%–84%, which occurred at about a frequency f of ~0.29 cycle per day or T of ~3.4 days in the period, consistent with the atmospheric frontal return periods (~3–7 days).

Inter-decadal variation of spatial aggregation of Trichiurus japonicus in East China Sea based on spatial autocorrelation analysis

Marine fish shows high heterogeneity in spatial aggregation. We analyzed the inter-deca-dal variations of stock density for Trichiurus japonicus in East China Sea (ECS) using geo-statistical approaches such as spatial autocorrelation and hotspot analysis, based on the data of T. japonicus from both bottom trawl fishery and research surveys in the open waters of ECS during 1971 to 2011, combined with the sea surface temperature (SST) and surface salinity data in the PN section in August. The global spatial autocorrelation statistics showed that Moran's I firstly decreased and then went up, indicating that the spatial aggregation patterns of T. japonicus was weakened in the beginning and then increased during 1971 to 2011. The surface salinity in the PN section displayed the opposite trend during the same period. The local spatial autocorrelation statistics showed that the population firstly moved to the southern ECS and then to the northern ECS except in 1971 in which the population concentrated in the middle of ECS because of the restriction of offshore fishing ground. The movement of hotspot areas of T. japonicus adaptively varied with the first EOF mode of SST in summer (sumEOF1), which indicated that the hotspot areas first moved southeastward with decreasing sumEOF1, and moved northeastward with increasing sumEOF1, but all of the hotspot areas were close to the northward branch of the Kuroshio Current.

EOF analysis of COSMIC observations on the global zonal mean temperature structure of the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere from 2007 to 2013

This work presents the results of a Conventional Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis on daily global zonal mean temperature profiles in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (15–35 km), as measured by the FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC mission from January 2007 to June 2013. For validation, results were compared with ERA-Interim reanalysis. Results show that, the leading global EOF mode (27%) from COSMIC is consistent with temperature anomalies due to the tropical cooling associated with boreal winter Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW). The second global EOF mode from COSMIC (15.3%) is consistent with temperature anomalies due to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO). The third global mode from COSMIC (10.9%) is consistent with temperature anomalies due to the El Nino Southern Oscillation. This work also shows that the second northern hemisphere EOF mode from COSMIC (16.8%) is consistent with temperature anomalies due Rossby-wave breaking (RWB) which is expected to only be resolved by a high vertical and temporal resolution dataset like COSMIC. Our work concludes that the use of a high vertical and temporal resolution dataset like COSMIC yields non-seasonal EOF modes that are consistent with relatively more intricate temperature anomalies due to the SSW, QBO, ENSO and RWB.

Predictable and unpredictable modes of seasonal mean precipitation over Northeast China

This study investigates the patterns of interannual variability that arise from the potentially predictable (slow) and unpredictable (intraseasonal) components of seasonal mean precipitation over Northeast (NE) China, using observations from a network of 162 meteorological stations for the period 1961–2014. A variance decomposition method is applied to identify the sources of predictability, as well as the sources of prediction uncertainty, for January–February–March (JFM), April–May–June (AMJ), July–August–September (JAS) and October–November–December (OND). The averaged potential predictability (ratio of slow to total variance) of NE China precipitation has the highest value of 0.32 during JAS and lowest value of 0.1 in AMJ. Possible sources of seasonal prediction for the leading predictable precipitation EOF modes come from the SST anomalies in the Japan Sea, as well as the North Atlantic during JFM, the Indian Ocean SST in AMJ, and the eastern tropical Pacific SST in JAS and OND. The prolonged linear trend, which is seen in the principal component time series of the leading predictable mode in JFM and OND, may also serve as a source of predictability. The Polar–Eurasia and Northern Annular Mode atmospheric teleconnection patterns are closely connected with the leading and the second predictable mode of JAS, respectively. The Hadley cell circulation is closely related to the leading predictable mode of OND. The leading/second unpredictable precipitation modes for all these four seasons show a similar monopole/dipole structure, and can be largely attributed to the intraseasonal variabilities of the atmosphere.

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIATION OF INDONESIAN THROUGHFLOW IN THE MAKASSAR STRAIT

<p><em>Using outputs of INDESO model, this study investigated vertical structure, spatial and temporal variation of the Indonesian Throughflow in Makassar Strait (M-ITF). It was shown that the main axis of persistent southward jet of M-ITF formed a unique path following the western shelf slope along the strait, which was associated with a high kinetic energy (KE) region from near-surface down to the thermocline layer. Furthermore, a drastic jump of KE appeared in the narrow and deep Libani Chan-nel (near 3°S) where the strait's width shrinks significantly, thus an elevated flow velocity was needed to maintain transport volume balance. Here, maximum southward velocity at thermocline exceeded 1.2 m/s. Spatial pattern of M-ITF can be described by the first EOF mode which accounts for 79 % of the total variances. It exhibited that contours of the flow amplitudes were similar to M-ITF path, and the largest amplitude was located near the Libani Channel. Out-of-phase relationship of the flow was found between M-ITF and eddies circulation that developed in the edges of the strait. Corresponding temporal fluctuation of the first EOF mode indicated that M-ITF variabilities varied from intra-seasonal to inter-annual scales. Annual fluctuation of M-ITF was seen from EOF mode-2 (at thermocline layer) and mode-3 at lower-thermocline. Cross-spectra analysis revealed that variability of M- ITF (e.g. on annual scale) at northern entrance was highly coherent to the fluctuations of North Equatorial Current (NEC) and Mindanao Current (MC), suggesting that variability of M-ITF was remotely influenced by the Pacific low-latitude western boundary currents.</em></p><p><em> </em><strong><em>Keywords</em></strong><em>: INDESO model, Indonesian Throughflow, Makassar Strait, EOF, Cross-Spectra Analysis</em></p>

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIATION OF INDONESIAN THROUGHFLOW IN THE MAKASSAR STRAIT

Using outputs of INDESO model, this study investigated vertical structure, spatial and temporal variation of the Indonesian Throughflow in Makassar Strait (M-ITF). It was shown that the main axis of persistent southward jet of M-ITF formed a unique path following the western shelf slope along the strait, which was associated with a high kinetic energy (KE) region from near-surface down to the thermocline layer. Furthermore, a drastic jump of KE appeared in the narrow and deep Libani Chan-nel (near 3°S) where the strait's width shrinks significantly, thus an elevated flow velocity was needed to maintain transport volume balance. Here, maximum southward velocity at thermocline exceeded 1.2 m/s. Spatial pattern of M-ITF can be described by the first EOF mode which accounts for 79 % of the total variances. It exhibited that contours of the flow amplitudes were similar to M-ITF path, and the largest amplitude was located near the Libani Channel. Out-of-phase relationship of the flow was found between M-ITF and eddies circulation that developed in the edges of the strait. Corresponding temporal fluctuation of the first EOF mode indicated that M-ITF variabilities varied from intra-seasonal to inter-annual scales. Annual fluctuation of M-ITF was seen from EOF mode-2 (at thermocline layer) and mode-3 at lower-thermocline. Cross-spectra analysis revealed that variability of M- ITF (e.g. on annual scale) at northern entrance was highly coherent to the fluctuations of North Equatorial Current (NEC) and Mindanao Current (MC), suggesting that variability of M-ITF was remotely influenced by the Pacific low-latitude western boundary currents. Keywords: INDESO model, Indonesian Throughflow, Makassar Strait, EOF, Cross-Spectra Analysis

An evaluation of boreal summer intra-seasonal oscillation simulated by BCC_AGCM2.2

The intra-seasonal oscillation (ISO) is a prominent feature of the East Asia summer monsoon. The Beijing Climate Center model is one of the IPCC models participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) 3 and CMIP5 experiments. This paper presents a systematic evaluation of ISO simulated by the Beijing Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model version 2.2 against observations. The model reasonably simulates some salient features of BSISO in terms of temporal spectrum, leading EOF modes, and vertical structure, however limitations are also evident. The strength of the BSISO is overestimated and the northward propagating rain belt is tilted southwest-northeast, which is also different from the observation. The model tends to produce unrealistically strong but shallow convection associated with the ISO, leading to a northward shift of the Western Pacific Subtropical High and the main rain band compared to observations. Process studies show that the anomalous convective heating associated with the wet model bias drives a Gill-type response, resulting in the northwesterly biased position of Western Pacific Subtropical High. The study has revealed how the interaction of moist processes and large-scale dynamics can lead to model bias in simulating the east Asian regional climate system and its variability (ISO in particular). Future improvements in model resolution and convection parameterization are expected to reduce such errors.

An Improved DINEOF Algorithm for Filling Missing Values in Spatio-Temporal Sea Surface Temperature Data.

In this study, an improved Data INterpolating Empirical Orthogonal Functions (DINEOF) algorithm for determination of missing values in a spatio-temporal dataset is presented. Compared with the ordinary DINEOF algorithm, the iterative reconstruction procedure until convergence based on every fixed EOF to determine the optimal EOF mode is not necessary and the convergence criterion is only reached once in the improved DINEOF algorithm. Moreover, in the ordinary DINEOF algorithm, after optimal EOF mode determination, the initial matrix with missing data will be iteratively reconstructed based on the optimal EOF mode until the reconstruction is convergent. However, the optimal EOF mode may be not the best EOF for some reconstructed matrices generated in the intermediate steps. Hence, instead of using asingle EOF to fill in the missing data, in the improved algorithm, the optimal EOFs for reconstruction are variable (because the optimal EOFs are variable, the improved algorithm is called VE-DINEOF algorithm in this study). To validate the accuracy of the VE-DINEOF algorithm, a sea surface temperature (SST) data set is reconstructed by using the DINEOF, I-DINEOF (proposed in 2015) and VE-DINEOF algorithms. Four parameters (Pearson correlation coefficient, signal-to-noise ratio, root-mean-square error, and mean absolute difference) are used as a measure of reconstructed accuracy. Compared with the DINEOF and I-DINEOF algorithms, the VE-DINEOF algorithm can significantly enhance the accuracy of reconstruction and shorten the computational time.

An interdecadal change in the intensity of interannual variability in summer rainfall over southern China around early 1990s

The intensity of interannual variability (IIV) in southern China (SC) summer rainfall experienced a remarkable increase in early 1990s, concurrent with the interdecadal increase in SC summer rainfall. Two factors are proposed for this interdecadal change. One is the interdecadal increase of IIV in tropical eastern Indian Ocean (TEIO) sea surface temperature (SST) after early 1990s. Anomalous warmer (cooler) TEIO SST triggers anomalous ascending (descending) motion and lower-level cyclonic (anticyclone) circulation in situ, which in turn induces anomalous descent (ascent) over SC through an anomalous meridional vertical circulation. This contributes to interannual summer rainfall variability over SC. The increase in the amplitude of TEIO SST anomalies in early 1990s led to an intensified interannual variability of summer rainfall over SC. The other is the strengthened influence of a coupled mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Atlantic triple SST anomaly on interannual variability in summer rainfall over SC after early 1990s. The leading EOF mode of the North Atlantic SST is characterized by a stripe pattern during 1979–1992, while during 1993–2008 the dominant mode of the North Atlantic SST is a triple pattern. The triple pattern of North Atlantic SST may exert positive effect on the NAO after early 1990s. Compared to the period 1979–1992, the relationship between the NAO and interannual summer rainfall over SC is enhanced during 1993–2008. The NAO coupled with North Atlantic SST triple exerts an important impact on SC summer rainfall variability through Eurasian wave-like train.

Surface circulation at the Strait of Gibraltar: A combined HF radar and high resolution model study

AbstractObservations from a high frequency radar system and outputs from a high resolution operational ocean model working at the Strait of Gibraltar have been analyzed and compared during the period February 2013 to September 2014 in order to evaluate their capability to resolve the surface circulation of the region. The description of the mean circulation patterns has been statistically assessed, showing good agreement, particularly in the central region of the strait corresponding with the Atlantic Jet (AJ) stream, although some short scale features are not reproduced by the model. In the frequency domain very high concordance is observed. Tidal maps of diurnal and semidiurnal constituents are in good agreement with previous observations. The analysis of the model and radar response to the wind forcing reveals that the low resolution of the model wind‐forcing field and its deeper superficial level smoothes the wind effect on the simulated currents. The first three EOF modes account for the 86% of model and radar variances. The coincidence between the observed and simulated patterns is very significant for the first two modes, which account for the mean velocity field and the latitudinal shifting of the AJ consequence of the flow‐topography interaction. The third mode captures the wind‐induced circulation, and greater discrepancies are found in this case. Results underline the complementary character of both systems: radar observations improve the model description, resolving short scale processes, while the model completes the radar information when the time or spatial coverage is poorer.

The roles of external forcing and natural variability in global warming hiatuses

Global mean surface temperature (GMST) rising has slowed down since late 1990s, which is referred to as the global warming hiatus. There was another global warming hiatus event during 1940s–1960s. The roles of the external forcing and the natural variability in both global warming hiatuses are explored, using EOF analysis. The first two leading EOF modes of the 5-year running mean global sea surface temperature (SST) reflect the global warming scenario (EOF1) and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO)-like natural variability (EOF2), respectively. In observation, PC2 was in its positive phase (eastern Pacific cooling) during 1940s–1960s, which contributed to the previous warming hiatus. In addition, GMST trends are found to be negative during late 1950s and 1960s in most of the CMIP5 historical runs, which implies that the external forcing also contributed to the pause in the GMST rising. It is further demonstrated that it is the natural radiative forcing (volcanic forcing) that caused the drop-down of GMST in 1960s. The current global warming hiatus has been attributed to the eastern Pacific cooling/enhanced Pacific trade winds. It is shown that the PC2 switched to its positive phase in late 1990s, and hence the IPO-like natural variability made a contribution to the slowdown of GMST rising in the past decade. It is also found that the EOF1 mode (global warming mode) of the observed SST features a smaller warming in tropical Pacific compared to the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic. Such inter-basin warming contrast, which is attributed to the “ocean thermostat” mechanism, has been suggested to contribute to the intensification of Pacific trade winds since late 1990s as well. Global warming hiatuses are also found in the future projections from CMIP5 models, and the spatial pattern of the SST trends during the warming-hiatus periods exhibits an IPO-like pattern, which resembles the observed SST trends since late 1990s.

Variation in summer surface air temperature over Northeast Asia and its associated circulation anomalies

This study investigates the interannual variation of summer surface air temperature over Northeast Asia (NEA) and its associated circulation anomalies. Two leading modes for the temperature variability over NEA are obtained by EOF analysis. The first EOF mode is characterized by a homogeneous temperature anomaly over NEA and therefore is called the NEA mode. This anomaly extends from southeast of Lake Baikal to Japan, with a central area in Northeast China. The second EOF mode is characterized by a seesaw pattern, showing a contrasting distribution between East Asia (specifically including the Changbai Mountains in Northeast China, Korea, and Japan) and north of this region. This mode is named the East Asia (EA) mode. Both modes contribute equivalently to the temperature variability in EA. The two leading modes are associated with different circulation anomalies. A warm NEA mode is associated with a positive geopotential height anomaly over NEA and thus a weakened upper-tropospheric westerly jet. On the other hand, a warm EA mode is related to a positive height anomaly over EA and a northward displaced jet. In addition, the NEA mode tends to be related to the Eurasian teleconnection pattern, while the EA mode is associated with the East Asia-Pacific/Pacific-Japan pattern.

Revisiting the second EOF mode of interannual variation in summer rainfall over East China

The second EOF (EOF2) mode of interannual variation in summer rainfall over East China is characterized by inverse rainfall changes between South China (SC) and the Yellow River–Huaihe River valleys (YH). However, understanding of the EOF2 mode is still limited. In this study, the authors identify that the EOF2 mode physically depicts the latitudinal variation of the climatological summer-mean rainy belt along the Yangtze River valley (YRRB), based on a 160-station rainfall dataset in China for the period 1951–2011. The latitudinal variation of the YRRB is mostly attributed to two different rainfall patterns: one reflects the seesaw (SS) rainfall changes between the YH and SC (SS pattern), and the other features rainfall anomalies concentrated in SC only (SC pattern). Corresponding to a southward shift of the YRRB, the SS pattern, with above-normal rainfall in SC and below-normal rainfall in the YH, is related to a cyclonic anomaly centered over the SC–East China Sea region, with a northerly anomaly blowing from the YH to SC; while the SC pattern, with above-normal rainfall in SC, is related to an anticyclonic anomaly over the western North Pacific (WNP), corresponding to an enhanced southwest monsoon over SC. The cyclonic anomaly, related to the SS pattern, is induced by a near-barotropic eastward propagating wave train along the Asian upper-tropospheric westerly jet, originating from the mid–high latitudes of the North Atlantic. The anticyclonic anomaly, for the SC pattern, is related to suppressed rainfall in the WNP.

Assessment of summer monsoon precipitation derived from five reanalysis datasets over East Asia

Precipitation, which is the predominant component of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), may have large uncertainties among reanalysis datasets. We comprehensively evaluate the performance of five reanalysis datasets in reproducing the EASM precipitation. These datasets are NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 project (NCEP1), NCEP/US Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project II reanalysis (NCEP2), Japanese 25‐year Reanalysis project (JRA‐25), Interim ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA‐Interim), and Modern Era Retrospective‐analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). Results show that the five reanalysis datasets can generally reproduce the climatology and interannual variability of EASM precipitation. Especially, MERRA and ERA‐Interim have the highest skills. Considering different‐class precipitation, large uncertainties exist in the category of non‐rainfall and heavy rainfall. The five reanalysis datasets overestimate the non‐rainfall frequency, and JRA‐25 and NCEP2 overestimate the heavy rainfall frequency. The well‐known interdecadal variation around the mid‐1990s can also be better depicted by ERA‐Interim and MERRA. For the linear trend of precipitation, only MERRA can reasonably reproduce the increasing tendency over southern China and the western Pacific and the decreasing tendency over the Indo‐China Peninsula. Based on EOF analysis, the spatial–temporal structure of EASM precipitation has been examined. MERRA, NCEP1 and ERA‐Interim can better capture both the spatial patterns and principle components of the first two EOF modes. Based on our evaluation, the preferential reanalysis datasets for investigating the EASM precipitation are ERA‐Interim and MERRA, which also permit the more precise investigation of interannual to decadal variability.

Ocean dynamical processes associated with the tropical Pacific cold tongue mode

AbstractThe cold tongue mode (CTM) is the second EOF mode of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) variability over the tropical Pacific and represents the out‐of‐phase relationship in SSTA variability between the Pacific cold tongue region and elsewhere in the tropical Pacific. A positive CTM is characterized by cold SSTA in the Pacific cold tongue region and warm SSTA in the rest of the tropical Pacific, with conditions reversed for a negative CTM. The CTM is a coupled air‐sea mode, and its long‐term variability is most probably induced by ocean dynamical processes in response to global warming [Zhang et al., 2010]. This study focuses on the specific ocean dynamical processes associated with the CTM and its possible relationship with global warming. A heat budget diagnosis of ocean temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific shows that the net heat flux plays a damping role and the four ocean advection terms ( , , , and ) contribute to the temperature change associated with the CTM. Among them, the vertical advection of the anomalous temperature by the mean upwelling ( ) makes a dominant contribution to the long‐term change in the CTM. The long‐term change of the term is controlled mainly by the decreasing vertical gradient of the ocean temperature anomaly ( ). The other three advection terms make a minor contribution to the long‐term change in the CTM.

A regional ionospheric TEC mapping technique over China and adjacent areas: GNSS data processing and DINEOF analysis

A technique is developed to derive two-dimensional maps of total electron content (TEC) over China and adjacent areas using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data from the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) and the International Global Navigation Satellite System Service (IGS). A revised self-calibration of pseudo-range errors (SCORE) algorithm is used to derive the TEC and to determine the Differential Code Biases (DCBs) simultaneously. The accuracy and validity of this technique is verified in two ways. Firstly, the estimated TEC is compared with the results derived using DCBs from Center for Orbit Determination of Europe (CODE) under different solar activity conditions and seasons; secondly, sample TEC along the receiver-to-satellite ray paths are simulated by NeQuick model and are reprocessed by this TEC derivation technique to make the accuracy test. Two-dimensional maps of vertical TEC of ionospheric pierce points (IPPs) are obtained accordingly with a time resolution of 30 s. The data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions (DINEOF) technique is then used to make the extrapolation for the unknown or missing data points. The optimal EOF modes for data reconstruction are specified via cross-validation method. The regional TEC distribution over China and adjacent areas is scaled into grid size of 1° × 1° for each 5 min, which can well reflect the characteristic of large-scale regional variations and temporal evolution as well as the small-scale local features of ionosphere.