Environmental Variables Research Articles

An ecologically sound and participatory monitoring network for pan-Arctic seabirds.

In a warming Arctic, circumpolar long-term monitoring programs are key to advancing ecological knowledge and informing environmental policies. Calls for better involvement of Arctic peoples in all stages of the monitoring process are widespread, although such transformation of Arctic science is still in its infancy. Seabirds stand out as ecological sentinels of environmental changes, and priority has been given to implement the Circumpolar Seabird Monitoring Plan (CSMP). We assessed the representativeness of a pan-Arctic seabird monitoring network focused on the black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) by comparing the distribution of environmental variables for all known versus monitored colonies. We found that with respect to its spatiotemporal coverage, this monitoring network does not fully embrace current and future environmental gradients. To improve the current scheme, we designed a method to identify colonies whose inclusion in the monitoring network will improve its ecological representativeness, limit logistical constraints, and improve involvement of Arctic peoples. We thereby highlight that inclusion of study sites in the Bering Sea, Siberia, western Russia, northern Norway, and southeastern Greenland could improve the current monitoring network and that their proximity to local populations might allow increased involvement of local communities. Our framework can be applied to improve existing monitoring networks in other ecoregions and sociological contexts.

Early-life factors shaping the gut microbiota of Common buzzard nestlings

BackgroundExploring the dynamics of gut microbiome colonisation during early-life stages is important for understanding the potential impact of microbes on host development and fitness. Evidence from model organisms suggests a crucial early-life phase when shifts in gut microbiota can lead to immune dysregulation and reduced host condition. However, our understanding of gut microbiota colonisation in long-lived vertebrates, especially during early development, remains limited. We therefore used a wild population of common buzzard nestlings (Buteo buteo) to investigate connections between the early-life gut microbiota colonisation, environmental and host factors.ResultsWe targeted both bacterial and eukaryotic microbiota using the 16S and 28S rRNA genes. We sampled the individuals during early developmental stages in a longitudinal design. Our data revealed that age significantly affected microbial diversity and composition. Nest environment was a notable predictor of microbiota composition, with particularly eukaryotic communities differing between habitats occupied by the hosts. Nestling condition and infection with the blood parasite Leucocytozoon predicted microbial community composition.ConclusionOur findings emphasise the importance of studying microbiome dynamics to capture changes occurring during ontogeny. They highlight the role of microbial communities in reflecting host health and the importance of the nest environment for the developing nestling microbiome. Overall, this study contributes to understanding the complex interplay between microbial communities, host factors, and environmental variables, and sheds light on the ecological processes governing gut microbial colonisation during early-life stages.

Benthic macroinvertebrate response to estuarine emergent marsh restoration across a delta-wide environmental gradient

Benthic invertebrates play vital roles in estuarine ecosystems, but like other taxa they have been excluded from former marshlands by diking and land use conversion. Dike removal is one way of restoring marsh, but the response of benthic invertebrates has been little studied. Also understudied is variation in benthic invertebrate communities across entire deltas, particularly in the Pacific Northwest of North America where deltas receive high flows and sediment loads for their size. Our goals were to evaluate invertebrate response to large-scale dike removal on the Nisqually River Delta in Puget Sound, Washington, U.S.A., characterize delta-wide invertebrate community variation, and relate invertebrate response and spatial variation to environmental conditions. We sampled invertebrates annually from one year before to three years after dike removal in restoring marsh, previously restored marsh, undisturbed reference marsh, and adjacent tidal flats. Marine taxa immediately colonized the area recently restored to tidal inundation and population size grew exponentially thereafter for several of them. Community composition and diversity recovered completely, and density and biomass were approaching recovery three years later. Invertebrate communities converged between restoring and pre-existing marsh (previously restored and reference), suggesting an influence of reestablished connectivity. Just offshore from the dike line, invertebrates declined one year after dike removal but then rebounded indicating resilience to short-term disturbance. Dike removal effects were not detected farther offshore. Near the offshore edge of the delta, invertebrate biomass and body size were greater than elsewhere and a diverse assemblage of crustaceans, polychaetes, and bivalves was present. Farther inshore, tidal flats were dominated by a few species of small-bodied polychaetes and had higher density but lower biomass and diversity. Facultative detritivores, which can also filter feed, were the dominant feeding guild everywhere on the tidal flats. Density, biomass, diversity, and community composition on the marsh were more similar to the inner than outer tidal flats. Environmental variables most associated with invertebrate community variation were elevation, salinity, and sediment grain size and organic content. Our results are relevant to assessing performance and setting expectations for future restorations and have broad implications for the role of benthic invertebrates in estuarine ecosystems.

Vertebrates and flying insects provide biocontrol services to Australian urban food gardens

AbstractBiocontrol by wild insects and other organisms is an important service provided to agriculture, but few studies have linked the role of this service to urban garden crop production. In 15 urban food gardens in Sydney, Australia, we assessed predation and parasitism of two sentinel prey species, recorded pest control activities undertaken by gardeners and the produce yielded by garden crops. We observed substantial removal of sentinel prey (mean removal 22% for Tenebrio molitor larvae and 59% for Helicoverpa armigera) but no parasitism. Vertebrate predators primarily consisted of urban adapted birds and mammals common throughout Australian cities. We measured a range of local and landscape scale environmental variables including plant richness and abundance, light, canopy cover, building density and distance to remnant vegetation. We found that gardeners undertook only basic pest control activities with little chemical use, yet high amounts of produce were harvested. Pest control services were poorly explained by environmental variables. Low active pest control activities, and high predation rates suggest pests are either well controlled or in low numbers in the surveyed urban food gardens. Given the vertebrate predators were generalist birds and mammals common to many parts of urban Australia, the provision of predation services to urban gardens by these taxa could be widespread across the continent.

Commercial Soccer Ball‐Integrated Triboelectric Nanogenerator

Triboelectric nanogenerators (TENG) are representative mechanical energy harvesters that can easily generate electricity based on contact electrification and electrostatic induction. However, most TENGs have low mechanical and electrical output stabilities because of their unstable structures, in which separate TENG devices are attached to the outside surface of commercial products/items for application. Herein, a commercial soccer ball‐integrated TENG (CSB‐TENG) is proposed as a potential solution. The CSB‐TENG is designed with an electrode‐fully packaged all‐in‐one structure; thus, it can have remarkable mechanical and electrical output stability for 160 000 cycles. For one bouncing motion, the CSB‐TENG generates a maximum peak power of 480 μW. The working mechanism of the CSB‐TENG is established by considering the actual motion of a soccer ball (kicking, bouncing, and rolling). The electrical output of the CSB‐TENG is evaluated and analyzed based on various design and environmental variables (ball material, shoe material, ground material, impact force, ball drop height, and electrode size) in daily life. The CSB‐TENG demonstrates applications, including LED array illumination and capacitor charging tests.

A Non-Intrusive Method for Lonely Death Prevention Using Occupancy Detection and an Anomaly Detection Model

In countries like Japan, Australia, France, Denmark, and South Korea, the numbers of single-person households and older adults living alone have been steadily increasing each year, leading to the social issue of lonely deaths among older adults. Against this backdrop, this study proposes a method to develop a system for preventing lonely deaths based on information technology, including the Internet of Things (IoT). IoT sensor data, which include nine environmental variables such as indoor temperature, relative humidity, CO2 concentration, fine dust particle levels, illuminance, total volatile organic compound levels, and occupancy data collected from passive infrared sensors, provide empirical evidence so that anomalies can be detected in the behavior patterns of older adults when they remain in one place for an unusually long time. Detecting such risky situations for older adults living alone involves anomaly detection through occupancy monitoring. The data from occupancy monitoring were analyzed using four classification models, namely Logistic Regression, k-Nearest Neighbor, Decision Tree, and Random Forest, with the performance of occupancy detection being compared across these models. Furthermore, the method proposed in this study includes data processing for environmental variables to improve the performance of occupancy detection.

Long-term declines in chlorophyll a and variable phenology revealed by a 60-year estuarine plankton time series

Long-term ecological time series provide a unique perspective on the emergent properties of ecosystems. In aquatic systems, phytoplankton form the base of the food web and their biomass, measured as the concentration of the photosynthetic pigment chlorophyll a (chl a), is an indicator of ecosystem quality. We analyzed temporal trends in chl a from the Long-Term Plankton Time Series in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, USA, a temperate estuary experiencing long-term warming and changing anthropogenic nutrient inputs. Dynamic linear models were used to impute and model environmental variables (1959 to 2019) and chl a concentrations (1968 to 2019). A long-term chl a decrease was observed with an average decline in the cumulative annual chl a concentration of 49% and a marked decline of 57% in winter-spring bloom magnitude. The long-term decline in chl a concentration was directly and indirectly associated with multiple environmental factors that are impacted by climate change (e.g., warming temperatures, water column stratification, reduced nutrient concentrations) indicating the importance of accounting for regional climate change effects in ecosystem-based management. Analysis of seasonal phenology revealed that the winter-spring bloom occurred earlier, at a rate of 4.9 ± 2.8 d decade-1. Finally, the high degree of temporal variation in phytoplankton biomass observed in Narragansett Bay appears common among estuaries, coasts, and open oceans. The commonality among these marine ecosystems highlights the need to maintain a robust set of phytoplankton time series in the coming decades to improve signal-to-noise ratios and identify trends in these highly variable environments.

Unravelling the complex interplay: environmental mixtures and breast cancer risk

Background. Globally, breast cancer ranks as the fourth most frequent reason for mortality when it comes to fatalities from cancer. The worrisome increases in rates of occurrence and death observed during the previous thirty years or more can be linked to several factors, such as changes in risk factor profiles, advancements in cancer registration, and the development of more effective detection technology. A strong association exists between the progression of metastasis and the mortality rate in breast cancer, with environmental pollutants seemingly contributing to this phenomenon. This association prompts a significant inquiry into the mechanisms that regulate the formation of metastases due to environmental and chemical contaminants. The impact of pollutants and chemical substances on communication pathways, which are essential for the growth and spread of tumor cells, among the numerous possible risk factors is gaining increasing focus. Material and methods. scientific research on environmental variables and additional factors linked to breast carcinoma was located and reviewed using engines such as the PubMed database, the MEDLINE database the Scopus database, and Google Scholar, among others, with search terms like “Breast Cancer”, “Risk components”, “Chemical exposures”, “Environmental toxic exposure”, “Disease progression”, “Bisphenol-A”, “Heavy metallic materials”, and “Food preparations”. Results. This literature aimed to present a thorough overview of the existing data on the impact of environmental and chemical toxins on breast cancer and as a result, a significant relationship between these toxins and breast cancer and its metastatic potential was discovered in more depth. Conclusion. In conclusion, breast cancer's complexity demands a holistic approach encompassing genetic, environmental, and early detection strategies. advancements in stem cell biology and gene identification enhance our understanding. Yet, dissemination remains a key challenge. Environmental toxins play a significant role, necessitating further epidemiological and molecular investigations to mitigate breast cancer's global impact.

Patterns of surface temperature and link to environmental variables in Weddell seals from the western Antarctic Peninsula

Patterns of surface temperature and link to environmental variables in Weddell seals from the western Antarctic Peninsula

Enhancing Soil Moisture Forecasting Accuracy with REDF-LSTM: Integrating Residual En-Decoding and Feature Attention Mechanisms

This study introduces an innovative deep learning model, Residual-EnDecode-Feedforward Attention Mechanism-Long Short-Term Memory (REDF-LSTM), designed to overcome the high uncertainty challenges faced by traditional soil moisture prediction methods. The REDF-LSTM model, by integrating a residual learning encoder–decoder LSTM layer, enhanced LSTM layers, and feedforward attention, not only captures the deep features of time series data but also optimizes the model’s ability to identify key influencing factors, including land surface features, atmospheric conditions, and other static environmental variables. Unlike existing methods, the innovation of this model lies in its first-time combination of the residual learning encoder–decoder and feedforward attention mechanisms in the soil moisture prediction field. It delves into the complex patterns of time series through the encoder–decoder structure and accurately locates key influencing factors through the feedforward attention mechanism, significantly improving predictive performance. The choice to combine the feedforward attention mechanism and encoder–decoder with the LSTM model is to fully leverage their advantages in processing complex data sequences and enhancing the model’s focus on important features, aiming for more accurate soil moisture prediction. After comparison with current advanced models such as EDLSTM, FAMLSTM, and GANBiLSTM, our REDF-LSTM demonstrated the best performance. Compared to traditional LSTM models, it achieved an average improvement of 13.07% in R2, 20.98% in RMSE, 24.86% in BIAS, and 11.1% in KGE key performance indicators, fully proving its superior predictive capability and potential application value in precision agriculture and ecosystem management.

Trends in Water Quality in a Tropical Kenyan River-estuary System: Responses to Anthropogenic Activities

Aims: To determine the spatial variation in physico-chemical water quality attributes in estuarine ecosystems of South Coast Kenya to inform its management. Study Design: We employed diagnostic research design where such factors as anthropogenic activities, hydrology, and accessibility were considered in choosing 12 sampling stations. A mixed sampling design (probability and non-probability) was used to sample. Place and Duration of Study: Four discharging rivers into estuarine system with a reference point were identified. 12 sampling points were earmarked and sampled for 12 months. Methodology: Nine selected water quality parameters were collected in triplicates monthly for 12 months. Temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, conductivity, salinity and TDS were collected in situ using YSI Multiparameter meter (Professional plus) while nutrients were analyzed in the laboratory calorimetrically. Data was tested for normality and homogeneity of variances using Levene's and Shapiro-Wilk tests. Two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) were done using the 64-bit R Software version 4.3.0 to test for significant differences and correlate the parameters among the sampling sites respectively. Observed differences were considered statistically significant at P < 0.05. Results: The measured environmental variables differed significantly among the sampling stations (P < 0.05). temperature and salinity exhibited moderate to strong effect on water quality, while pH and nutrients (phosphates, nitrates, and ammonia) exhibited mixed effects with both negative and positive loadings on the Principal Components. It is demonstrated that the south coast estuary, Kenya is affected by two gradients: mineralization from the sea and the organic matter gradient at the upstream stations dominated by the fluvial inflows from the respective rivers. Conclusion: The south coast of Kenya estuary is impacted by natural processes and anthropogenic activities. we recommend for continued regular water quality assessment and monitoring to acquire sufficient data to shape policy frameworks towards its sustainable management.

Calibration Methods for Low-Cost Particulate Matter Sensors Considering Seasonal Variability

Many countries use low-cost sensors for high-resolution monitoring of particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) to manage public health. To enhance the accuracy of low-cost sensors, studies have been conducted to calibrate them considering environmental variables. Previous studies have considered various variables to calibrate seasonal variations in the PM concentration but have limitations in properly accounting for seasonal variability. This study considered the meridian altitude to account for seasonal variations in the PM concentration. In the PM10 calibration, we considered the calibrated PM2.5 as a subset of PM10. To validate the proposed methodology, we used the feedforward neural network, support vector machine, generalized additive model, and stepwise linear regression algorithms to analyze the results for different combinations of input variables. The inclusion of the meridian altitude enhanced the accuracy and explanatory power of the calibration model. For PM2.5, the combination of relative humidity, temperature, and meridian altitude yielded the best performance, with an average R2 of 0.93 and root mean square error of 5.6 µg/m3. For PM10, the average mean absolute percentage error decreased from 27.41% to 18.55% when considering the meridian altitude and further decreased to 15.35% when calibrated PM2.5 was added.

Trait-environment interactions of saproxylic beetles as a guide to biodiversity conservation strategies

Conservation of biodiversity requires in-depth knowledge of trait-environment interactions to understand the influence the environment has on species assemblages. Saproxylic beetles exhibit a wide range of traits and functions in the forest ecosystems. Understanding their responses to surrounding environment thus improves our capacity to identify habitats that should be restored or protected. We investigated potential interactions between ecological traits in saproxylic beetles (feeding guilds and habitat preferences) and environmental variables (deadwood, type and age of surrounding forest). We sampled beetles from 78 plots containing newly created high stumps of Scots pine and Silver birch in boreal forest landscapes in Sweden for three consecutive years. Using a model based approach, our aim was to explore potential interactions between ecological traits and the surrounding environment at close and distant scale (20 m and 500 m radius). We found that broadleaf-preferring beetle species are positively associated with the local broadleaf-originated deadwood and broadleaf-rich forests in the surrounding landscapes. Conifer-preferring species are positively associated with the local amount of coniferous deadwood and young and old forests in the surrounding landscape. Fungivorous and predatory beetles are positively associated with old forests in the surrounding landscapes. Our results indicate that both local amounts of deadwood and types of forests in the landscape are important in shaping saproxylic beetle communities. We particularly highlight the need to increase deadwood amounts of various qualities in the landscape, exempt older forests from production and to increase broadleaf-rich habitats in order to meet different beetle species’ habitat requirements. Trait responses among saproxylic beetles provide insights into the significance of broadleaf forest and dead wood as essential attributes in boreal forest restoration, which helps conservation planning and management in forest landscapes.

Seasonal change and influence of environmental variables on host-seeking activity of the biting midge Culicoides sonorensis at a southern California dairy, USA

BackgroundAs a primary vector of bluetongue virus (BTV) in the US, seasonal abundance and diel flight activity of Culicoides sonorensis has been documented, but few studies have examined how time of host-seeking activity is impacted by environmental factors. This knowledge is essential for interpreting surveillance data and modeling pathogen transmission risk.MethodsThe diel host-seeking activity of C. sonorensis was studied on a California dairy over 3 years using a time-segregated trap baited with CO2. The relationship between environmental variables and diel host-seeking activity (start, peak, and duration of activity) of C. sonorensis was evaluated using multiple linear regression. Fisher’s exact test and paired-sample z-test were used to evaluate the seasonal difference and parity difference on diel host-seeking activity.ResultsHost-seeking by C. sonorensis began and reached an activity peak before sunset at a higher frequency during colder months relative to warmer months. The time that host-seeking activity occurred was associated low and high daily temperature as well as wind speed at sunset. Colder temperatures and a greater diurnal temperature range were associated with an earlier peak in host-seeking. Higher wind speeds at sunset were associated with a delayed peak in host-seeking and a shortened duration of host-seeking. Parous midges reached peak host-seeking activity slightly later than nulliparous midges, possibly because of the need for oviposition by gravid females before returning to host-seeking.ConclusionsThis study demonstrates that during colder months C. sonorensis initiates host-seeking and reaches peak host-seeking activity earlier relative to sunset, often even before sunset, compared to warmer months. Therefore, the commonly used UV light-baited traps are ineffective for midge surveillance before sunset. Based on this study, surveillance methods that do not rely on light trapping would provide a more accurate estimate of host-biting risk across seasons. The association of environmental factors to host-seeking shown in this study can be used to improve modeling or prediction of host-seeking activity. This study identified diurnal temperature range as associated with host-seeking activity, suggesting that Culicoides may respond to a rapidly decreasing temperature by shifting to an earlier host-seeking time, though this association needs further study.Graphical

Efficient phosphate and hydrogen recovery from sludge fermentation liquid by sacrificial iron anode in electro-fermentation system

Electro-fermentation (EF) has been extensively studied for recovering hydrogen and phosphorus from waste activated sludge (WAS), while was limited for the further application due to the low hydrogen yield and phosphorus recovery efficiency. This study proposed an efficient strategy for hydrogen and vivianite recovery from the simulated sludge fermentation liquid by sacrificial iron anode in EF. The optimum hydrogen productivity and the utilization efficiency of short chain fatty acids (SCFAs) reached 45.2 mmol/g COD and 77.6% at 5 d in pH 8. Phosphate removal efficiency achieved at 90.8% at 2 d and the high crystallinity and weight percentage of vivianite (84.8%) was obtained. The functional microbes, i.e., anaerobic fermentative bacteria, electrochemical active bacteria, homo-acetogens and iron-reducing bacteria were highly enriched and the inherent interaction between the microbial consortia and environmental variables was thoroughly explored. This work may provide a theoretical basis for energy/resource recovery from WAS in the further implementation.

On elastic deformations of cylindrical bodies under the influence of the gravitational field

Background Large elastic deformations of gravitating cylindrical bodies play a significant role in everyday life. On the other hand, tiny such deformations are relevant for state-of-the art experiments, as they affect the physical properties of materials under consideration, impacting wave propagation. This is of key importance for a recently planned experiment to explore the influence of the gravitational field on entangled photons propagating in waveguides. The purpose of this work is to determine this influence. Methods We use the methods of linear elasticity, including thermoelasticity, to determine the stresses and strains of the medium. For this, the symmetry of the cylinder allows us to solve the problem by using Mitchell’s solutions of the equations satisfied by the Airy functions. The boundary conditions are implemented by an approximation of the Hertz contact method. Results We calculate the displacements, the stresses and strains for several classes of boundary conditions, and give explicit solutions for a number of physically motivated configurations. The influence of the resulting deformations on the planned GRAVITES experiment is determined. Conclusions The results are relevant for fiber interferometry experiments sensitive to the effects of the gravitational field on photon propagation. Our calculations give stringent bounds on the environmental variables, which need to be controlled in such experiments.

Understanding habitat suitability and road mortality for the conservation of the striped hyaena (Hyaena hyaena) in Batna (East Algeria)

Abstract The determination of suitable habitats and roadkill hotspots allows for the prioritization of areas of conservation and the identification of road sections that require appropriate planning and development. Understanding the factors that influence the species’ presence and those contributing to its road-related fatalities is crucial. This study demonstrates the use of MaxEnt modeling to map the potential distribution of the striped hyaena (Hyaena hyaena) in Batna province (East Algeria) using occurrence records and a set of environmental variables. The results indicated that the two primary environmental variables that influence the distribution of the species are the shrubland, and the slope with a contribution of 37.5 and 30.2 %, respectively, followed by built-up areas (12 %) and distance to roads (7.2 %). The species may occupy steep terrain with shrubland near anthropized areas. Road collisions represent a threat to the species, with 28 documented casualties from 2010 to 2020 in Batna. The kernel density estimation revealed an important roadkill hotspot along the national roads 3 and 28. This study represents a preliminary step for the use of wildlife ecological niche modeling and road management in Algeria.

Case-area targeted interventions during a large-scale cholera epidemic: A prospective cohort study in Northeast Nigeria.

Cholera outbreaks are on the rise globally, with conflict-affected settings particularly at risk. Case-area targeted interventions (CATIs), a strategy whereby teams provide a package of interventions to case and neighboring households within a predefined "ring," are increasingly employed in cholera responses. However, evidence on their ability to attenuate incidence is limited. We conducted a prospective observational cohort study in 3 conflict-affected states in Nigeria in 2021. Enumerators within rapid response teams observed CATI implementation during a cholera outbreak and collected data on household demographics; existing water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure; and CATI interventions. Descriptive statistics showed that CATIs were delivered to 46,864 case and neighbor households, with 80.0% of cases and 33.5% of neighbors receiving all intended supplies and activities, in a context with operational challenges of population density, supply stock outs, and security constraints. We then applied prospective Poisson space-time scan statistics (STSS) across 3 models for each state: (1) an unadjusted model with case and population data; (2) an environmentally adjusted model adjusting for distance to cholera treatment centers and existing WASH infrastructure (improved water source, improved latrine, and handwashing station); and (3) a fully adjusted model adjusting for environmental and CATI variables (supply of Aquatabs and soap, hygiene promotion, bedding and latrine disinfection activities, ring coverage, and response timeliness). We ran the STSS each day of our study period to evaluate the space-time dynamics of the cholera outbreaks. Compared to the unadjusted model, significant cholera clustering was attenuated in the environmentally adjusted model (from 572 to 18 clusters) but there was still risk of cholera transmission. Two states still yielded significant clusters (range 8-10 total clusters, relative risk of 2.2-5.5, 16.6-19.9 day duration, including 11.1-56.8 cholera cases). Cholera clustering was completely attenuated in the fully adjusted model, with no significant anomalous clusters across time and space. Associated measures including quantity, relative risk, significance, likelihood of recurrence, size, and duration of clusters reinforced the results. Key limitations include selection bias, remote data monitoring, and the lack of a control group. CATIs were associated with significant reductions in cholera clustering in Northeast Nigeria despite operational challenges. Our results provide a strong justification for rapid implementation and scale-up CATIs in cholera-response, particularly in conflict settings where WASH access is often limited.

Spatiotemporal trends and covariates of Lyme borreliosis incidence in Poland, 2010–2019

Lyme borreliosis (LB) is the most commonly diagnosed tick-borne disease in the northern hemisphere. Since an efficient vaccine is not yet available, prevention of transmission is essential. This, in turn, requires a thorough comprehension of the spatiotemporal dynamics of LB transmission as well as underlying drivers. This study aims to identify spatiotemporal trends and unravel environmental and socio-economic covariates of LB incidence in Poland, using consistent monitoring data from 2010 through 2019 obtained for 320 (aggregated) districts. Using yearly LB incidence values, we identified an overall increase in LB incidence from 2010 to 2019. Additionally, we observed a large variation of LB incidences between the Polish districts, with the highest risks of LB in the eastern districts. We applied spatiotemporal Bayesian models in an all-subsets modeling framework to evaluate potential associations between LB incidence and various potentially relevant environmental and socio-economic variables, including climatic conditions as well as characteristics of the vegetation and the density of tick host species. The best-supported spatiotemporal model identified positive relationships between LB incidence and forest cover, the share of parks and green areas, minimum monthly temperature, mean monthly precipitation, and gross primary productivity. A negative relationship was found with human population density. The findings of our study indicate that LB incidence in Poland might increase as a result of ongoing climate change, notably increases in minimum monthly temperature. Our results may aid in the development of targeted prevention strategies.

The impact of changing climate on the spread of the widely expanding species Ambrosia artemisiifolia in Slovakia

AbstractThe invasion of common ragweed in Slovakia was analysed based on 1635 collected records. More than 70 years have passed since the first record was sampled in 1949. Since then, it has spread in two waves, first in the lowlands, next to farmland and human settlements, and later in the mountains, on the roadsides. In the present, it is probably expanded in half of the territory of Slovakia. It is changing habitat preferences and adapting to new environments. Using eleven environmental and geographical variables, the species distribution modelling was performed to obtain probability of occurrence in high resolution (30 s) in Slovakia. Four predictions were calculated based on two models. The first prediction was based on the first model trained on ragweed records before the start of the second expansion wave in 2000. The second prediction is based on the first model and predicts the present distribution according to current climatic conditions, which have changed in twenty years. The third prediction was based on the second model, trained on all 1635 collected records from 1949 to 2022. The fourth prediction based on the second model shows the potential distribution in 2040–2061. Comparing the predictions, the climatic changes explain current expansion of common ragweed in mountains since the air temperature is the main factor shaping distribution of common ragweed in Slovakia.