Environmentally Sensitive Areas Research Articles

Scrutinizing the Statistical Distribution of a Composite Index of Soil Degradation as a Measure of Early Desertification Risk in Advanced Economies

Using descriptive and inferential techniques together with simplified metrics derived from the ecological discipline, we offer a long-term investigation of the Environmental Sensitive Area Index (ESAI) as a proxy of land degradation vulnerability in Italy. This assessment was specifically carried out on a decadal scale from 1960 to 2020 at the province (NUTS-3 sensu Eurostat) level and benefited from a short-term forecast for 2030, based on four simplified assumptions grounded on a purely deterministic (‘what … if’) approach. The spatial distribution of the ESAI was investigated at each observation year (1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020, 2030) calculating descriptive statistics (central tendency, variability, and distribution shape), deviation from normality, and the increase (or decrease) in diversification in the index scores. Based on nearly 300 thousand observations all over Italy, provinces were considered representative spatial units because they include a relatively broad number of ESAI measures. Assuming a large sample size as a pre-requisite for the stable distribution of the most relevant moments of any statistical distribution—because of the convergence law underlying the central limit theorem—we found that the ESAI scores have increased significantly over time in both central values (i.e., means or medians) and variability across the central tendency (i.e., coefficient of variation). Additionally, ecological metrics reflecting diversification trends in the vulnerability scores delineated a latent shift toward a less diversified (statistical) distribution with a concentration of the observed values toward the highest ESAI scores—possibly reflecting a net increase in the level of soil degradation, at least in some areas. Multiple exploratory techniques (namely, a Principal Component Analysis and a two-way hierarchical clustering) were run on the two-way (data) matrix including distributional metrics (by columns) and temporal observations (by rows). The empirical findings of these techniques delineate the consolidation of worse predisposing conditions to soil degradation in recent times, as reflected in a sudden increase in the ESAI scores—both average and maximum values. These trends underline latent environmental dynamics leading to an early desertification risk, thus representing a valid predictive tool both in the present conditions and in future scenarios. A comprehensive scrutiny of past, present, and future trends in the ESAI scores using mixed (parametric and non-parametric) statistical tools proved to be an original contribution to the study of soil degradation in advanced economies.

Early Desertification Risk in Advanced Economies: Summarizing Past, Present and Future Trends in Italy

Being located in the middle of Southern Europe, and thus likely representing a particularly dynamic member of Mediterranean Europe, Italy has experienced a sudden increase in early desertification risk because of multiple factors of change. Long-term research initiatives have provided relatively well-known examples of the continuous assessment of the desertification risk carried out via multiple exercises from different academic and practitioner stakeholders, frequently using the Environmentally Sensitive Area Index (ESAI). This composite index based on a large number of elementary variables and individual indicators—spanning from the climate to soil quality and from vegetation cover to land-use intensity—facilitated the comprehensive, long-term monitoring of the early desertification risk at disaggregated spatial scales, being of some relevance for policy implementation. The present study summarizes the main evidence of environmental monitoring in Italy by analyzing a relatively long time series of ESAI scores using administrative boundaries for a better representation of the biophysical and socioeconomic trends of interest for early desertification monitoring. The descriptive analysis of the ESAI scores offers a refined representation of economic spaces in the country during past (1960–2010 on a decadal basis), present (2020), and future (2030, exploring four different scenarios, S1–S4) times. Taken as a proxy of the early desertification risk in advanced economies, the ESAI scores increased over time as a result of worse climate regimes (namely, drier and warmer conditions), landscape change, and rising human pressure that exacerbated related processes, such as soil erosion, salinization, compaction, sealing, water scarcity, wildfires, and overgrazing.

Climate-Driven vs Human-Driven Land Degradation? The Role of Urbanization and Agricultural Intensification in Italy, 1960–2030

Climate warming, agricultural intensity, and urban growth are main forces triggering land degradation in advanced economies. Being active over different spatial and temporal scales, they usually reflect—at least indirectly—the impact of additional factors, such as wellbeing, demographic dynamics, and social development, on land quality. Using descriptive statistics and a multiple regression analysis, we analyzed the impact of these three processes comparatively over a decadal scale from 1960 to 2020 at the provincial level (Nuts-3 sensu Eurostat) in Italy. We enriched the investigation with a short-term forecast for 2030, based on four simplified assumptions grounded on a purely deterministic approach. Land degradation was estimated adopting the Environmental Sensitive Area Index (ESAI) measured at the spatio-temporal scale mentioned above. Computing on multiple observations at nearly 300,000 locations all over Italy, provinces were regarded as representative spatial units of the territorial pattern of land degradation. Between 1960 and 1990, the three predictors (climate, agriculture, and urbanization) explained a relatively high proportion of variance, suggesting a modest role for any other (unobserved) factor. All of these factors were found to be highly significant predictors of land degradation intensity across provinces, the most impactful being farming intensity. The highest adjusted-R2 coefficient was observed in both 1990 and 2000, and suggests that the three predictors still reflect the most powerful drivers of land degradation in Italy at those times, with a marginal role for additional (unobserved) factors. The impact of farming intensity remained high, with the role of urbanization increasing moderately, and the role of climate aridity declining weakly between 2000 and 2010. In more recent times (2010 and 2020), and in future (2030) scenarios, the adjusted R2 diminished moderately, suggesting a non-negligible importance of external (unobserved) factors and the rising role of spatial heterogeneity. The climate factor became progressively insignificant over time, while increasing the role of urbanization systematically. The impact of farming intensity remained high and significant. These results underlie a latent shift in the spatial distribution of the level of land vulnerability in Italy toward a spatially polarized model, influenced primarily by human pressure and socioeconomic drivers and less intensively shaped by biophysical factors. Climate aridity was revealed to be more effective in the explanation of land degradation patterns in the 1960s rather than in recent observation times.

Assessing Environmental Sensitivity Areas (ESA) Using Medalus Model in Telkaif District of Northern Iraq

This study conducted in Tel Kaif district in the northern part of Nineveh Governorate, located between longitudes (˝42′33°41– ˝20′19°43) east and latitudes (˝20′23°36-˝14′54°36) north to assess its environmental sensitivity to desertification (ESA). Fifteen representative sites selected based on the agricultural uses, vegetation cover, and topography. The geographical coordinates of the study sites were determined using a GPS device, and climatic and descriptive data for the study area taken, and soil samples taken for the required laboratory analyses. The obtained data converted into weighted evidence from special tables, so that four indices were calculated, namely the Soil Quality Index (SQI), Vegetation cover Quality Index (VQI), Climate Quality Index (CQI) and Management Quality Index (MQI) required according to the requirements of achieving the Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use (MEDALUS) model. Finally, the Environmentally Sensitive Areas Index (ESAI) equation applied to classify the study area and evaluate its environmental sensitivity to desertification, and then the Kriging technique was used within GIS programs to employ the results of the study by classifying the lands and representing them cartographically. The results showed that most of the study sites have a high environmental sensitivity to desertification (ESA) of the Critical type and below the C3 type, site 15 was Critical - C2, while sites (7 and 9) were Fragile - F2, and Site 6 was Fragile - F3. Therefore, the study area is located within the areas threatened by desertification, according to the assessment of the Environmental Sensitivity to Desertification Index, which is based on the MEDALUS model.

Potential of agrivoltaics in ASEAN considering a scenario where agroforestry expansion is also pursued

Integration of solar photovoltaics on croplands (“agrivoltaics”) has been promoted as an environmentally-friendly approach for solar energy deployment. Past studies, however, have not considered that these croplands could alternatively be used as sites for expanding agroforestry, a practice which provides important ecosystem services to the neighbouring environment. We assessed the potential of agrivoltaics on herbaceous croplands in ASEAN, considering potential trade-offs with agroforestry. We assumed that croplands located in environmentally sensitive areas (ESAs) – including protected areas, key biodiversity areas, forests, wetlands/inland water bodies, their buffer zones, and areas with steep slopes – were better suited for agroforestry than agrivoltaics. We found that even if agrivoltaics are prohibited on all croplands located in ESAs, using just 10 % of the remaining land for agrivoltaics can still allow it to provide most of ASEAN's electricity generation needs. Thus, large-scale expansion of agrivoltaics need not conflict with regional efforts to enhance biodiversity/ecosystem services through agroforestry.

Geoinformatics-Based Mapping of Environmental Sensitive Areas for Desertification over Satara and Sangli Districts of Maharashtra, India

Desertification processes in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid conditions have been enhanced in recent decades. The geospatial database and associated satellite data can be effectively employed for regional planning to address desertification and land degradation. In this study, the Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use (MEDALUS) model has been used to map environmentally sensitive areas due to desertification in the Satara and Sangli districts of Maharashtra, India. This was achieved by combining Landsat-8 multispectral data, Census data, soil data, and climatic variables like temperature, rainfall, and evapotranspiration. The algorithm of MEDALUS is the geometric mean of four indicators, namely soil quality index (SQI), climate quality index (CQI), vegetation quality index (VQI), and socio-economic quality index (SEQI). The findings indicated that the majority of the study area comes under the potential category of desertification (60.32%) followed by fragile (27.87%) and critical (11.81%). Areas with a high propensity for desertification were found over the low to very low climatic quality and moderate to high soil quality including lower socio-economic quality. The lower socio-economic quality is mainly due to high to very high population density (>100 people/km2), low to moderate illiteracy rate (<16%), and low to moderate work participation rate (<50%) that incentivize unsustainable land use practices. The study provides a valuable tool for understanding and managing natural resources. It offers a detailed analysis of the environmental sensitivity of the study area, taking into account various factors like land use, vegetation cover, slope, and soil erosion potential. The developed comprehensive map of the area helps in identifying the most sensitive regions and developing appropriate conservation strategies. The information obtained from the study can be utilized to develop and implement successful measures to prevent or alleviate desertification, which is crucial for sustaining the health of ecosystems and the welfare of local residents.

Land degradation sensitivity and desertification risk in Harrir region, northern Iraq

Soil degradation and desertification are persistent ecological issues that present significant challenges worldwide. An accurate evaluation of land susceptibility to desertification is essential for developing suitable strategies or policies to address it on national scales. Modified Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use (MEDALUS) model is widely utilized to assess environmental and desertification sensitivity. This study employed MEDALUS model to identify environmentally sensitive areas prone to desertification in the Harrir region, northern Iraq. A total of 102 soil samples were collected from 0 to 20 cm depth covering a land area of 279.36 km2. Environmental sensitivity area index (ESAI) was used to evaluate sensitivity of the study area to environmental changes. The results indicated that ∼68.18 km2 of the study area would be exposed to land degradation and desertification. Fragile (F) regions accounted for 39.63 km2, underscoring the need for effective management and conservation practices. Only a small portion of the region (2.81 km2) was classified as ‘critical’ (C). Further analysis revealed that fragile sub-classes F1, F2, and F3 accounted for 11.84%, 17.16%, and 14.19% respectively, while critical subclass C1, C2, and C3 areas accounted for 10.97%, 9.12%, and 1.006% respectively. The remaining areas were either classified as unaffected or had potential for being influenced by environmental changes. Approximately 24.41% of the study area had the potential for being influenced by environmental sensitivity. This highlights the importance of implementing effective management and conservation practices to protect fragile regions in the study area. Policymakers and land managers can effectively prioritize and implement targeted interventions to prevent further soil degradation and desertification in the Harrir region of northern Iraq.

First documentation on herpetofauna diversity in Gunung Belumut Amenity Forest, Peninsular Malaysia: Implications for conservation in an Environmentally Sensitive Area (ESA).

Malaysia is blessed with lush tropical rainforests that harbour an exceptional diversity of amphibians and reptiles. However, compared to other animal groups, amphibians and reptiles have received limited attention in research, despite their ecological significance. With amphibians and reptile species having been declining rapidly due to anthropogenic activities, there is a pressing need to conserve these species and their habitats. Environmentally Sensitive Areas (ESAs) are designated regions that are beneficial due to their critical role in providing essential ecosystem services and serving as repositories of biodiversity. Nonetheless, the classification of ESAs in Malaysia lacks biological elements and only focuses on physical attributes. To enhance the current ESA classification framework by integrating biological components, there is an urgent need to obtain information on diversity and habitat in Malaysia. Therefore, the objectives of this study were twofold: to determine the diversity of amphibians and reptiles in Gunung Belumut Amenity Forest and to conduct a comparative analysis between the herpetofauna assemblages in Gunung Belumut with other forest reserves in Peninsular Malaysia. The survey was carried out between March and June 2022, with additional sampling conducted in February 2023. The Visual Encounter Survey (VES) and pitfall trap methods were employed to survey the herpetofauna species, focusing on both aquatic and terrestrial habitats within the study area. A total of 210 individuals representing 38 species of herpetofauna were recorded, comprising 18 amphibian and 20 reptile species. Amongst the observed species, Limnonectesblythii was the most frequently encountered amphibian, with 59 individuals observed, while the dominant reptile species was Cyrtodactylusconsobrinus, represented by eight individuals. This pioneering study serves as a vital baseline documentation of the amphibian and reptile assemblages in Gunung Belumut Amenity Forest. It provides valuable information for identifying extant herpetofauna species, including those of potential conservation concern or rarity. These findings contribute to ongoing conservation efforts dedicated to the preservation of herpetofauna within the region. By understanding the diversity and distribution patterns of amphibians and reptiles in Gunung Belumut, effective conservation strategies can be developed to protect these species and their habitats.

Small mammal assemblage in Gunung Tebu Forest Reserve, Terengganu: An environmentally sensitive area in East Coast Peninsular Malaysia

Effective spatial planning plays a pivotal role in defining the progress and growth of a certain region. One aspect of spatial planning by PLANMalaysia involves the incorporation of environmentally sensitive areas (ESAs), which comprises eleven different landscape management. Integrating biological features is crucial when defining ESA Permanent Forest Reserve, as relying solely on physical attributes may not accurately reflect the true sensitivity of the environment. Therefore, there is a need to gather biological information to strengthen existing ESA. A study was conducted in Gunung Tebu Forest Reserve (GTFR) from April to July 2023. Multiple trapping approaches were deployed to assess volant and non-volant small mammal assemblage. In total, 155 individuals comprised of 31 species of small mammals were documented with the highest species abundant recorded by Maxomys rajah (n = 29) and Leopoldamys sabanus (n = 27). The diversity indices were varied throughout five sampling sessions, (Shannon = 1.841 to 2.543), (Simpson = 0.7951 to 0.9056). Comparison on species assemblage between GTFR and forest reserves in Hulu Terengganu showed a moderate similarity level. This finding offers the most recent insight of the small mammals in GTFR and highlights the significance of conserving and preserving (ESA) in permanent forest reserves.

Bird diversity in Gunung Tebu Forest Reserve: Biological data of environmentally sensitive area in east coast Peninsular Malaysia

Malaysia had developed guidelines to develop and conserve environmentally sensitive areas (ESAs), which mainly based on physical attributes, disregarding the biological elements. A recent study has identified ten potential biological parameters to be integrated into the ESA classification, especially for permanent forest reserve. However, the information on biological parameters is still scarce and inadequate, requiring extensive research on species diversity and its distribution especially on bird assemblages. Hence, a study on bird diversity was conducted over five sampling sessions from April to July 2023 in one of ESA permanent forest reserve, Gunung Tebu Forest Reserve, located in east coast of Peninsular Malaysia. A total of 76 species from 32 families were documented based on observation which is 51 species of the total species recorded, 31 species by mist-netting and 12 species with bird calling. The diversity (Simpson Index = 0.952 to 0.974, Shannon Index = 3.045 to 3.638) between sessions was compared. Based on Chao 2 estimator, the total species richness in the study area was estimated to be between 77 and 80 species. This comprehensive documentation highlights the previously underreported bird diversity in the forest reserve, emphasizing the need for including biological parameters as a classification attribute for environmentally sensitive area in Malaysia.

Assessment of Land Desertification in the Brazilian East Atlantic Region Using the Medalus Model and Google Earth Engine

Many factors drive land desertification, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. However, the sheer number of these driving factors of desertification makes analyses computer-intensive. Cloud computing offers a solution to address this problem, especially in developing countries. The objective of this work was to assess the sensitivity of the East Atlantic Basin, Brazil, to desertification using the Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use (MEDALUS) model and Google Earth Engine (GEE). The model is composed of four environmental Quality Indices (QIs) associated with soil (SQI), vegetation (VQI), climate (CQI), and management (MQI), each encompassing factors that influence the desertification process. Digital databases corresponding to these factors were pre-processed and uploaded to GEE for analysis. We report Environmentally Sensitive Areas (ESAs) and Environmentally Critical Factors (ECF) maps of the East Atlantic Basin, which show that most of the basin is in either a critical (49.4%) or fragile (35.7%) state of sensitivity. In contrast, only a smaller portion of the area is unaffected (5%) or potentially affected (10.1%). The analysis also revealed an inverse correlation between desertification sensitivity and the presence of vigorous vegetation. A joint evaluation of ESAs and ECF shed light on the importance of each factor in the sensitivity to desertification. The East Atlantic Basin shows a high degree of sensitivity to desertification, thereby demanding more attention and the establishment of measures to mitigate the negative impacts of the desertification process.

Index Integrating Soil, Vegetation, Climate and Management Qualities to Evaluate Desertification in the Northwestern Coast, Egypt

In Egypt, the phenomenon of desertification is a geographical phenomenon that is related to the decline or deterioration of the land's biological production capacity, which will eventually result in semi-desert conditions, or, in other words, the loss of fertility from productive lands. An understanding of the geographical distribution of environmentally sensitive areas (ESAs) is necessary for sustainable land use in the dry lands. The characteristics of the research region and the Mediterranean desertification and land use (MEDALUS) approach were used to evaluate the environmental sensitivity to desertification on the west-north coast of Egypt. Remote sensing images, topographic data, soils, and geological data are used to calculate desertification indicators. A hotspot of desertification risk exists on the north coast of Egypt due to soil degradation, climatic conditions, geomorphological and topographic features, soil quality and soil uses in each area. In each of these areas, these variables lead to varying levels and causes of soil degradation and desertification, as well as varying environmental, economic, and social effects. The obtained data reveal that (10.6%, 82.73%) of the west north coast are Sensitive and Very sensitive areas to desertification, About 1.22% of the research area is the moderately sensitive area, while the low sensitive and very low exhibit only (4.21,1.48) %. Remote sensing and GIS are recommended to monitor sensitivity. MEDALUS factors can be modified to obtain more reliable data at the local level.

Preventing technosphere-associated emergencies in the territories of municipalities in the context of climate change

The present study is aimed at providing systematic assessment and developing preventive measures for adverse technosphere effects emerging in the territories of municipalities in the context of climate change. The study emphasizes the search for methods, organizational-technical measures, and the best available technologies for preventing natural and anthropogenic emergencies, as well as their socio-economic, natural-resource, environmental and other adverse consequences. The paper considers assessing the dynamics, as well as forecasting climate change in environmentally-sensitive areas, taking into account the increasing global temperature associated with technosphere factors of human activity in the urban economy (heat and power engineering, housing and utilities infrastructure, transport, handling of hazardous solid municipal and other wastes). The impact of climate change on the natural environment is analyzed in terms of preventing adverse events and emergencies. Based on the generalization and systematization of materials, the present paper identifies directions and ways of preventing environmental hazards by reducing the technosphere load on the natural environment under the conditions of climate change.

Evaluating the spatial coherence of composite indexes of land degradation at small administrative units

In light of the ‘zero-net land degradation strategy’, the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) guidelines for policy-relevant indicators of land quality, have stressed the importance of comparable indexes' informative value across spatial scales. However, the proliferation of composite indexes of land sensitivity, vulnerability, or exposure to desertification risk, has been occasionally grounded on a systematization of theoretical concepts – both in advanced economies and in emerging countries. Rationalization of the operational approaches to land degradation assessment implies a (spatially explicit) comparison and verification of their outcomes at different (policy-relevant) spatial scales. To answer this issue, we implemented a statistical approach evaluating the coherence and reliability of four composite indexes of land degradation (ES3, ES4, LVI, DSI), with a practical application for Italy, a Mediterranean country classified as ‘affected’ by UNCCD. Using (municipal) administrative units as the elementary analysis' domain, sequential econometric techniques were used to test the internal (spatially explicit) coherence of the four composite indexes, and the role of information redundancy, for calibration of local-scale land degradation strategies. The outcomes of spatial regressions documented the potential of the four indexes in a short-term assessment of land vulnerability, confirming that such indexes provided a coherent ranking of Italian municipalities based on their intrinsic degree of land degradation. Principal Component Analysis documented the superior informative power of the ES4 index and confirms the appropriateness of an extensive use of the Environmentally Sensitive Area Index (ESAI) at small spatial scales. The proposed framework supports the creation of an index dashboard to monitoring complex environmental phenomena.

Modelling the spatiotemporal dynamics of land susceptibility to desertification in Algeria

Desertification is a significant environmental and socioeconomic issue that requires monitoring and early detection. In this context, holistic studies are more useful than localized ones in addressing this issue. In this study, we used the desertification sensitivity index (DSI) to pinpoint regions of Algeria that are at risk of desertification and to examine significant shifts in the sensitivity of land to desertification between 2000 and 2020, as well as the primary drivers of these shifts. Unlike the standard Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use (MEDALUS) approach, which uses equal weighting of parameters and quality indicators to construct the environmental sensitivity areas, the DSI applies statistically generated weights. Our results showed that approximately 106,000 km2 of the non-desert area was extremely susceptible to desertification in 2000, 83,200 km2 in 2010, and 98,200 km2 in 2020, with critical zones mainly located in the High Plains (steppe rangelands). Our analysis revealed that climate and vegetation quality indicators were the main drivers of the DSI, which showed a nonlinear trend during the study period. The analysis of changes in land sensitivity to desertification revealed that most of the changes were negative and occurred in the High Plains, as well as certain areas of the Tell Atlas Mountain ranges and the littoral fringe. However, some positive changes occurred due to the establishment of new forest plantations and croplands. The results provide a comprehensive overview of the risk of desertification in Algeria and its main drivers and can serve as a scientific basis for the development and implementation of necessary measures to interrupt and combat this destructive environmental phenomenon.

Production of Environmental Sensitivity Maps for Desertification in Southern Marshes of Iraq

The arid and semi-arid regions have faced critical desertification problems in the last decades. This phenomenon is caused either by human actions or natural circumstances. The study aims to identify the sensitive areas of desertification in the marshlands of southern Iraq using the Environmental Sensitivity Areas Index (ESAI) for desertification. The study area is located between longitudes (46.1° to 48.1° E) and latitude (29.55° to 32.55° N), which includes parts of the governorates of Al-Amarah, Al-Basara and Al-Nasiriyah in southern Iraq with an area of about 27,989 km2. Satellite image processing for the Landsat OLI sensor of 2021 was adopted to characterize the general appearance of the interest area. Arc Gis ver.10.7 programs were used to analyze different data and produce the Desertification Sensitivity Index (DSI) and maps for the parameters for evaluating southern marshes’ desertification. Nine parameters are grouped into three orderly indices concerning the behaviour of desertification, and weighting factors are assigned in each index. This study found that the study area highly sensitive to desertification represents (10781.14 km2 of the total area) about 38.52% of the study area. The area sensitive to desertification covers about 38.42%, about 10752.92 km2 of the total area. Areas of low sensitivity to desertification appear throughout the marshes, representing 23.06%, about 6454.67 km2 of the total area. The result shows that the area is suffering from reduced water supplies and the human destruction of natural grazing areas for urban expansion or cultivation of seasonal crops.

Understorey bird assemblages in selected environmentally sensitive areas (ESA) of Selangor, Peninsular Malaysia.

Environmentally Sensitive Areas (ESA) refer to areas that are of critical importance in terms of ecosystem services such as goods, services and life-support systems, such as water purification, pest control and erosion regulation. In addition, they also refer to areas that harbour the wealth of the nation's biodiversity. However, the classification of ESA in Malaysia is incomprehensible and lacks weightage on biological elements as the current classification is more centred on physical attributes. In order to enhance the existing classification of ESA by introducing biological elements, biological data are urgently required, especially for forest reserves and protected habitat. Hence, we conducted understorey birds surveys in three ESA rank II permanent forest reserves, located in northern Selangor as baseline information to strengthen the ESA classification. The surveys were carried out using mist-netting in three 400 m × 200 m plots. Alpha diversity indices were calculated and showed a significant difference in terms of diversity, composition and biomass of understorey birds between investigated sites. Analysis of similarity (ANOSIM) showed that bird assemblages from forest reserves designated as ESA rank II in Selangor, based on disturbances levels, have weakly diverged and SIMPER analysis has identified six species that contributed to 60% of the differences amongst the bird assemblages. The finding provides the first insight into understorey birds of the study sites and the importance of conserving and preserving ESA of permanent forest reserves, especially the small and fragmented forests.

Modeling Spatio-Temporal Divergence in Land Vulnerability to Desertification with Local Regressions

Taken as a classical issue in applied economics, the notion of ‘convergence’ is based on the concept of path dependence, i.e., from the previous trajectory undertaken by the system during its recent history. Going beyond social science, a ‘convergence’ perspective has been more recently adopted in environmental studies. Spatial convergence in non-linear processes, such as desertification risk, is a meaningful notion since desertification represents a (possibly unsustainable) development trajectory of socio-ecological systems towards land degradation on a regional or local scale. In this study, we test—in line with the classical convergence approach—long-term equilibrium conditions in the evolution of desertification processes in Italy, a European country with significant socioeconomic and environmental disparities. Assuming a path-dependent development of desertification risk in Italy, we provided a diachronic analysis of the Environmental Sensitive Area Index (ESAI), estimated at a disaggregated spatial resolution at three times (1960s, 1990s, and 2010s) in the recent history of Italy, using a spatially explicit approach based on geographically weighted regressions (GWRs). The results of local regressions show a significant path dependence in the first time interval (1960–1990). A less significant evidence for path-dependence was observed for the second period (1990–2010); in both cases, the models’ goodness-of-fit (global adjusted R2) was satisfactory. A strong polarization along the latitudinal gradient characterized the first observation period: Southern Italian land experienced worse conditions (e.g., climate aridity, urbanization) and the level of land vulnerability in Northern Italy remained quite stable, alimenting the traditional divergence in desertification risk characteristic of the country. The empirical analysis delineated a more complex picture for the second period. Convergence (leading to stability, or even improvement, of desertification risk) in some areas of Southern Italy, and a more evident divergence (leading to worse environmental conditions because of urban sprawl and crop intensification) in some of the land of Northern Italy, were observed, leading to an undesired spatial homogenization toward higher vulnerability levels. Finally, this work suggests the importance of spatially explicit approaches providing relevant information to design more effective policy strategies. In the case of land vulnerability to degradation in Italy, local regression models oriented toward a ‘convergence’ perspective, may be adopted to uncover the genesis of desertification hotspots at both the regional and local scale.

Assessment of land degradation in the North China Plain driven by food security goals

Land degradation directly affects global and regional economic, social development, and food security, which has become a hot and challenging issue in the global ecological field. A successful response to land degradation requires understanding its causes, impacts, and extent. It is also essential to recognize the effects of climate, soil, water, land cover, and socioeconomic factors on land degradation. Therefore, assessing land degradation risk can help prevent and reverse land degradation trends, especially for the main grain production area. The Environmental Sensitivity Area Index (ESAI) was used to identify land degradation sensitive areas in the North China Plain and combined with a random forest model to determine the main drivers affecting land degradation and predict future land degradation sensitive areas. The results show decreasing land degradation risk in the North China Plain. In 2015, the sensitivity of land degradation in the North China Plain had improved. The proportion of land area with high sensitivity to land degradation reduced to 0.02%. Combining the spatial and temporal distribution of ESAI and the prediction results of the random forest model, we know that socio-economic factors have the most significant impact on land degradation sensitivity. Although the risk of land degradation is decreasing, it is still necessary to pay attention to the possible future land degradation risk to stabilize food production. Assessing land degradation risk in North China Plain provides important decision information for rational and sustainable land management and has more vital practical significance.

Assessment of land sensitivity to degradation using MEDALUS model - a case study of Grdelica Gorge and Vranjska Valley (southeastern Serbia)

Land degradation is a complex issue caused by diverse drivers, each of which should be considered in the analysis of land sensitivity to degradation. This study identifies the areas most sensitive to land degradation in the Grdelica Gorge and Vranjska Valley, which are unique in terms of natural and socioeconomic conditions. Land-use changes and inappropriate land management have led to serious degradation in this region. The flexible and multifactorial approach of the Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use (MEDALUS) model allowed comprehensive land degradation sensitivity analysis in the study area. The main factors driving soil degradation were assessed by estimating climate quality index, soil quality index, and vegetation quality index, and the main socioeconomic indicators by management quality index and social quality index. The results showed that forest cover is the main factor to contrast land degradation, and even minor adverse changes in forest characteristics, such as structure, canopy cover, health, and quality, could trigger degradation processes. The vegetation quality index was defined in terms of the current vegetation’s capacity to protect soil from erosion, drought resistance, and fire risk. Detailed data on forest vegetation cover was obtained from the National Forest Inventory (NFI). The environmentally sensitive area (ESA) index generated through the analysis classified 26.11% of the total study area as critical, 69.53% as fragile, and 2.70% as either prone to or unaffected by degradation processes. According to the ESA index, the areas covered by forests with optimal species composition and high canopy cover were the least susceptible to degradation. The areas under intensive agricultural production without any application of conservation measures were the most susceptible to degradation. Future strategies for optimal land-use patterns are discussed, such as the intergration of woody species in croplands to protect soil against degradation and meet human needs in the areas prone to degradation.