Ensuring Energy Security Research Articles

The security of energy import: Do economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk really matter?

Examining the roles of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR) in energy import (EI) is vital to ensuring energy security in China. The exploration utilises the TVP-SV-VAR methodology to seize the time-varying connection among EPU, GPR and EI. In light of the quantitative discussion, we discover that EPU exerts an adverse effect on EI, emphasising that the uncertainties in economic policies would reduce energy imports in China, which conforms to the theoretical hypothesis. GPR had a favourable impact on EI before COVID-19, primarily due to the changes in energy prices and diversification of imports, which turned negative after this epidemic because of economic recovery and more severe geopolitical events, which is not perfectly consistent with the qualitative analysis. Besides, the exploration replaces EI with oil import (OI) and ascertains the robustness of the reported conclusion. By comparing, the influences from EPU and GPR on coal import (CI) and natural gas import (NGI) are entirely different from OI primarily due to the substitution effect and geopolitical property. In the increasingly challenging economic and political environment context, the exploration will offer significant lessons for China to ensure the security of energy imports.

Dependability of local power systems based on autonomous generation units

Aim. The paper aims to create and verify methods for predicting the dependability of autonomous power supply to local low-power consumers. Methods. The work uses simulation tools, i.e., computational experiment for predicting the dependability and safe service life of autonomous cluster distributed energy networks that include various power generation installations, power transmission lines and an automated self-regulation system for the purpose of diversifying the risks of failure. Results. Using methods of probabilistic analysis of technical system safety, the dependability of power supply is predicted in terms of possible energy network failures and threats to the life of consumers. The problem can be solved by simulating and predicting the moment of failure of a power network, i.e., critical violation of design conditions, accident, etc. This scenario allows – for long periods of operation – simulating failure situations due to degradation and destruction of elements, units, power lines, as well as failures under multidimensional uncertainty of prediction of dependability and quality of power supply. The key output of simulation is a set of recommendations to ensure energy security. The paper presents simulated dependability indicators, analysis of the effect of structural design solutions underlying a distributed energy network on the dependability and energy security. Conclusion. The use of computational experiments and results of power supply dependability simulation as part of predicting probabilistic indicators of failures of equipment and elements of cluster energy networks, identifying their consequences for the energy security of sparsely populated and remote locations lays the foundation for quality management of energy networks. Additionally, in the future, additional causes and initial events may be included in the model for the purpose of studying the facts of failures. For instance, such causes as uneven generation using renewable sources, finite fuel supply for conventional generation sources, reliability of the power grid personnel. The proposed approach allows verifying promising new energy network design solutions, for example, including energy storage systems into a distributed energy network that – at various points in time – may be either “generators” or “consumers”. Simulation of local energy networks is of practical interest and is important for improving their consumer quality, resistance to hazardous environmental effects.

Economics of sustainable lignocellulose biomass and biofuel logistics in Malaysia

Lignocellulose biomass is an inedible and renewable resource that can be used to produce biofuels sustainably and thus help to mitigate climate change while helping to ensure energy security. Tropical countries like Malaysia are assumed to have abundant biomass resources, but the fragmented farming landscapes common in Southeast Asia raise challenges for biofuel production, which largely stem from logistics operations and have an adverse impact on economies of scale and the viability of biorefineries. This thesis seeks to understand the costs and supplies associated with biomass transport, assess the impacts of landscape fragmentation on biorefineries, and identify optimum biorefinery locations. Ten sources of biomass (agroforestry residues from fields, sawmills, and processing plants) were considered, taking into account various logistical factors, supply scenarios, and impacts of landscape fragmentation. The study began with a simulation of biomass transport across Peninsular Malaysia, using GRASS GIS software to estimate costs and supplies. Eighty-nine points within each district were designated as potential locations. Biomass transport was recorded as a major cost component in operational expenditures. The capital expenditures for various conversion pathways and biorefinery operations were estimated across relevant orders of magnitude, with the biofuel supplies also being simulated. The study identified four optimum locations for various types of biomass, presenting detailed cost and supply structures. The two most competitive biomass types are rice straw and pressed palm fibre (PPF). Costs ranged a) from 130.6 to 206.3 USD/tonne, yielding 0.47 to 0.97 million tonnes of PPF fermented biofuel per year, and b) 123.2 to 207.8 USD/tonne for rice straw, yielding 0.49 to 0.56 million tonnes of fermented biofuel per year. In tonnes of oil equivalent (toe), both together amounted to 5–7% of Malaysia’s annual petroleum consumption. Surprisingly, the findings suggest that an abundance of biomass does not necessarily result in lower biofuel costs, because factors such as spatial fragmentation and moisture content amplify transport costs. Our analysis emphasises the need for strategic planning, including the use of larger trucks, early moisture removal, and the establishment of local consolidation centres to manage biomass effectively. It highlights the need for a more holistic and strategic approach in order to understand supply zone specifics with a view to unlocking Malaysia’s potential for sustainable biofuel production.

Energy security and the shift to renewable resources: The case of Russia-Ukraine war

The performance of energy firms plays a crucial role in ensuring energy security, as it determines the availability and affordability of energy resources for a country, especially in the face of geopolitical crisis. This study explores the impact of economic sanctions imposed on Russia in early 2022 on energy stock returns in 57 countries, providing causal evidence on the relationship between major geopolitical events and energy security. Using advanced DiD methodology, the research found that nations heavily reliant on oil imports saw a significant increase in energy stock returns, suggesting no major issue of energy security in sanction-sender nations. Moreover, renewable energy companies experienced a greater rise in returns than non-renewable counterparts, indicating a potential shift towards renewables during times of geopolitical tension. These findings shed light on the intricate relationship between geopolitical events, market trends, and energy security policy, offering valuable insights for policymakers to navigate this complex landscape.

Analyzing the load capacity curve hypothesis for the Turkiye: A perspective for the sustainable environment

Although it takes time to achieve a sustainable environment, this goal can be possible with the Sustainable Development Goals. The transition from gray energy sources to green in the 21st century is among the important policy goals of global economies. Since this process is long, countries focus on energy efficiency as part of their carbon reduction policies. In this context, this study investigates the impact of clean energy technologies on environmental quality in Turkiye. Using the load capacity curve (LCC) hypothesis, human capital, income, and natural resources are theoretically added to the balance model. The novel Augmented ARDL with Fourier terms approach is used in the empirical analysis. As a result of the analysis, the LCC hypothesis is valid, and income will support environmental quality after a certain level. While human capital increases environmental quality, natural resources bring environmental pollution. Finally, it is determined that clean energy technologies have not yet reached the level that enables carbon reduction. The finding that clean energy technologies are insufficient for Turkiye, as a result of empirical analysis, shows the uniqueness of this study. With our new findings, policymakers can take action for a sustainable environment. Since Turkiye has to ensure energy security due to its regional characteristics, it should increase investments in clean energy technologies. Based on empirical findings, clean energy technologies will gain momentum as policymakers support human capital.

Enhancing the accuracy of China's electricity consumption forecasting through economic cycle division: An MSAR-OPLS scenario analysis

Accurate electricity consumption (EC) forecasting is vital for ensuring efficient energy supply and underpinning long-term economic stability. Prior research has often overlooked the intricate interplay between the nuanced dynamics of economic growth and EC. In contrast, this study innovatively incorporates the economic cycle into the analytical framework of EC, providing a more comprehensive perspective. Firstly, we construct the MSAR-OPLS two-step model to discern the factors influencing EC across various cycles. We select the most fitting stabilization cycle as the foundation for forecasting. By integrating both dynamic and static scenario analyses, we offer a comprehensive and precise evaluation of future EC trends. This study ensures both the reliability and accuracy of our forecasts. Projections suggest that China's EC will escalate to 11,780 billion kWh by 2030, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 3.96% from 2023 to 2030. Furthermore, through rigorous robustness and sensitivity analyses, the study validates the forecast's accuracy. Beyond emphasizing the role of economic phases in ensuring energy security, this research furnishes policymakers with insights on embedding foresightful elements into strategic economic and energy planning.

Assessing Risks on China’s Natural Gas Supply under Carbon Peaking Policies from Foreign–Domestic Perspectives

China’s natural gas supply has been challenged in the past few years by non-traditional risks such as trading conflicts, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the country’s own emission policy. To ensure energy security and supply, conducting an up-to-date risk analysis of China’s natural gas supply status is crucial. This research utilized the Fuzzy-AHP method to compose a risk index and assessed the key links within China’s natural gas supply chain from the import side to the domestic side. The results indicate that (a) for China’s gas import, the most influential risks are the correlated dependence risk, international relation risk, and supplier internal stability risk. (b) While the dependence risk and transport risk have decreased sharply in the past decade, the import risk is still China’s major concern on natural gas supply. (c) Emissions-peaking and carbon neutrality targets are potential challenges, which the country would possibly face in the near future.

INVESTIGATING THE EFFECTIVITY OF PROMOTING ELECTRIC VEHICLE TO REDUCE AIR POLLUTION: AN ANALYSIS OF INDONESIA POWER PLANTS

Purpose: Fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas, release carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases when burned for energy production. Transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources is essential for addressing climate change, ensuring energy security, protecting the environment, and fostering sustainable economic development. The combination of environmental benefits, technological advancements, and supportive policies makes electric vehicles (EV) a promising and sustainable solution for the future of transportation. In Indonesia, the use of EV is still in its earliest stage, and the popularity of EV in Indonesia is yet very low due to its price and charging problems. The government has introduced some incentives to promote EV to the people, however, the results still yet to come. This paper investigated the effectiveness of EV transition to reduce pollution based on existing power plants in Indonesia. Methodology: We computed the proportion of renewable power plants from all power plants and used the data of CO2 emissions per kWh of various power plants to analyze the CO2 emission of conventional and EVs using the data of CO2 emissions from fossils. Findings: We found that 86.8 percent of the electricity used in Indonesia is generated from fossil fuels. However, based on the power consumption rate per km of travel, we found that EVs emit 46 to 49 percent lower CO2 than fossil-powered vehicles for the same travel distance. Originality/value: Despite the domination of fossil-fueled power plants, promoting EVs can help to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Indonesia.

Trends in the development of EU energy policy at the present stage

The issue of energy security and energy independence of the EU is one of the key factors in ensuring the stable development of the association. The subject of the study is the energy concepts of the European Union. The object of the study is the modern energy policy of the EU countries. The countries of the European Union are among the world's largest importers and exporters of energy resources, and therefore one of the criteria for EU energy security is the creation of secure logistics chains for uninterrupted energy supplies, since this factor has always been one of the most important problems in energy security. However, despite all the data that the European Union has, this area is a source of numerous problems for ensuring energy security that the EU faces at the current stage of its development. The methodological basis of the study is a systematic analysis and a geo-economic approach. The systematic approach was used in the work to identify the reasons for the transformation of EU energy concepts in the context of the energy crisis. The geo-economic approach allows us to qualitatively consider this issue from the point of view of economics and geopolitics of the countries of Eastern and Western Europe in the context of energy transition. The novelty of the research lies in the comprehensive analysis of the concept of energy security in the complex in the context of energy transfer. The authors pay special attention to the analysis of the energy policy of the European Union, numerous new initiatives and documents related to this area, as well as the development of the concept of green energy. The authors highlight the challenges that the EU will face on the way to building a stable and safe energy sector. The paper also examines the impact of the EU's energy policy on the concept of European unity. Attention is being paid to the EU's attempts to diversify energy supplies, which plays an important role in the context of the Ukrainian crisis and complications from the loss of Russian supplies. The authors conclude that the lack of internal unity within the EU does not allow for an effective and sustainable energy policy, since the European Union does not have a common energy legislation, and infrastructure development between the countries of Western and Eastern Europe is overly diversified, which does not allow us to talk about the transformation of energy policy in the EU countries at the present stage.

ENERGY SECURITY OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE WAR: BARRIERS AND PROSPECTS FOR OVERCOMING

The article unveils the stages of evolution of the concept of energy security from the early ХХ century to the present realities, taking into account the full-scale aggression on the territory of Ukraine. The authors emphasize that in the past, energy security was primarily associated with ensuring the supply and delivery of oil and gas, but now it has become complicated with the supply of fuel for military purposes. It is noted that the Russian aggression against Ukraine has underscored the importance of the energy security policies of the United States and European countries. The article analyzes research results revealing security threats associated with the energy sector in the United States. Emphasis is placed on the necessity of decision-making covering technical, political, and programmatic aspects. New strategies for the energy market, including alternative energy sources and high-efficiency technologies, are discussed. The article examines the link between international conflicts and energy security, including the Persian Gulf crisis of 1991 and the Iraq war of 2003. The results of political debates regarding the confrontation between Russia, the United States, and Europe are presented, highlighting the need for the development of alternative energy sources and energy efficiency. It is determined that the future of energy policy should consider global trends and international relations, not just economic and geopolitical aspects. Current trends in the energy sector and their impact on energy security in conflict conditions are discussed. The importance of transitioning to renewable and alternative energy sources is emphasized amid declining reserves of traditional fuels and rising prices. Problems associated with continued dependence on fossil fuels, such as resource depletion, global warming, environmental issues, and geopolitical conflicts, are mentioned. The article underscores the necessity of cooperation between energy-consuming countries' governments to reorient their energy sectors. The growing threat of global warming and other issues necessitates immediate action to transition to less polluting energy sources. The article analyzes the impact of the war in Ukraine on the region's energy security and demonstrates the necessity of developing alternative energy sources to ensure energy supply stability. It is noted that energy security is a crucial element of a country's economic stability and plays a key role in international relations. Efforts by EU member countries to reduce dependence on gas supplies from Russia and effective steps towards developing alternative energy sources are highlighted. However, difficulties in achieving this goal due to inadequate coordination and increasing gas prices in Europe are noted. The necessity of swift and effective measures to ensure energy security amid modern challenges and conflicts is underscored.

China-Africa Energy Development Cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative

This article explores the cooperation between China and African countries in the field of energy development within the framework of the “Belt and Road Initiative”. The authors analyze the key areas of cooperation, such as the construction of energy infrastructure, the development of renewable energy sources, technological exchange, and project financing. The reasons why China actively invests in Africa’s energy sector are examined, including ensuring energy security, resource accessibility, and strengthening diplomatic relations. The authors also consider the advantages and challenges of such cooperation for both parties and its impact on economic development and energy security in the region. The study examines China’s role in assisting African countries in achieving sustainable development through the development of renewable energy sources and improving energy efficiency. Various projects and initiatives that have been implemented or planned within this cooperation are also discussed in the article. The authors draw conclusions about the significance and prospects of China-Africa energy cooperation within the “Belt and Road Initiative”. This article provides a comprehensive overview of the topic, analyzing China’s contribution and its implications for African countries.

Урановые проекты в странах Центральной Азии: перспективы и сложности реализации

The article analyzes the issues of possible construction of nuclear power plants, to which the political elite of most Central Asian countries has recently shown deep interest. The worsening problem of power shortages in the region necessitates the search for alternative power-generating capacities. Emphasis is placed on the ura-nium potential of Central Asian countries, which allows them not only to use it as a resource for the creation of new energy facilities based on new technologies, but also turns these countries into an object of global geopo-litical competition. In the future, the interest of Central Asian countries in the implementation of uranium pro-jects will only increase due to socio-economic factors, such as the need to ensure energy security as a strategic basis for sustainable economic development and meeting the needs of the population in electricity. It is con-cluded that both internal (environmental threats, political instability) and external (geopolitical rivalry) factors will slow down the implementation of uranium projects.

A comparative analysis of gas mixing during the underground hydrogen storage in a conventional and fractured reservoir

Climate change and political tensions are reducing the time for the energy transition. Large-scale underground hydrogen storage (UHS) can be crucial in future energy systems for decarbonizing the world's economy as well as ensuring energy security. There are challenges, however, that prevent it from being used on large scale as an energy carrier. The high cost of hydrogen cushion gas is one of them. It is not economical that a portion of hydrogen remains in a reservoir as a cushion gas during UHS until the end of a storage operation. Consequently, inert gases such as nitrogen can be used as cushion gas. Hydrogen's heating value gets reduced, however, due to gas mixing. Since gas mixing behavior differs in reservoirs with different mechanisms, hydrogen heating value was employed to examine the gas mixing behavior during UHS in conventional and fractured reservoir models (dual-porosity) for the first time in this study. The mixing behavior of hydrogen gas with replaced cushion gas will first be examined in the absence and presence of diffusion using a conventional gas reservoir model. Then some reservoir and operational parameters will be investigated in order to determine how they affect the gas mixing behavior, including reservoir porosity, permeability, rock compressibility, and cushion gas type. Next, a basic UHS scenario with dual-porosity will be examined to determine how hydrogen gas and cushion gas mix in the presence and absence of diffusion and the effects of specific parameters on gas mixing behavior in the fractured reservoir (NFR) model, including matrix-fracture transmissibility and cushion gas type. According to the results, in the conventional reservoir model, considering diffusion during early hydrogen production results in a decrease in hydrogen heating value. While in the second stage of hydrogen production, diffusion increases the hydrogen heating value, resulting from the sweeping effect. Dual-porosity models illustrate the opposite behavior. As well, porosity reduction resulted in higher hydrogen heating values during early production but reversed during late production. Unlike the effect of rock compressibility on heating value of hydrogen, a lower hydrogen heating value was obtained during hydrogen production as the reservoir permeability increased. Also, carbon dioxide cushion gas showed reversed effect on gas mixing during UHS in the conventional compared to the NFR case.

Carbon emission reduction contribution analysis of electricity enterprises in urban green development: A quantum spherical fuzzy sets-based decision framework

As managers of urban power grids (UPGs), electricity enterprises are responsible for ensuring energy security and stability during the urban green transformation process. They are also a key driving force in promoting green power transmission and integration. Therefore, exploring the green attributes of UPGs and accurately enhancing their green support capabilities are of significant importance. This study addresses the perceived contributions of electricity enterprises to carbon emission reduction and proposes a decision framework within a quantum-spherical fuzzy (QSF) environment. First, from the perspectives of economy, technology, policy, and management, a carbon emission reduction contribution evaluation system for electric enterprises was constructed. In the QSF environment, this study identifies the importance of various attributes in the evaluation system. Subsequently, an electric enterprise carbon emission reduction perception model was developed based on the preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluations and prospect theory (PROMETHEE-PT). An empirical validation of the proposed model was conducted in Hefei, China, demonstrating the robustness and effectiveness of the evaluation framework. The study's results were verified by comparing them with those of other methods.

Design standards for environmentally friendly and energy-efficient buildings

The relevance of the work. In modern society, the problem of reducing the consumption of primary energy is becoming more acute. Scientists around the world are solving problems related to global energy efficiency. At the same time, issues of environmental protection, reducing energy costs, ensuring energy security and many others are considered. Construction, as one of the largest energy consumers on the planet, cannot stay away from this problem. The search for energy-efficient solutions in construction has been going on for a long time. However, at the same time, the main attention is paid to the engineering equipment of construction objects and the creation of shells impermeable from a heat engineering point of view. In the context of the gradual exhaustion of opportunities for further improving energy efficiency in construction using traditional methods, this work aims to draw attention to the influence of the constructive solution of buildings on their energy consumption. It can be assumed that the optimization of the supporting structures of buildings will become a new driver for the development of the energy efficiency of buildings and structures.

Перетворення довгополуменевого вугілля в нанопористий вуглецевий матеріал при карбонізації з гідроксидом калію

DOI: 10.31081/1681-309X-2024-0-2-43-48 Specialty 161. U.D.C. 662.749.3 COMPATIBILITY OF COAL TAR DERIVATIVES WHEN COMPOUNDED WITH INDUSTRIAL WASTE PYROLYSIS PRODUCTS © K.O. Doroshenko, V.V. Bagrova (State Enterprise “Ukrainian State Research Institute for Carbochemistry (UKHIN)”, 7 Vesnina str., Kharkiv, 61023, Ukraine), V.V. Savchenko, T.M. Kedun (National Technical University "Kharkiv Polytechnic Institute", 2, Kyrpychova str., Kharkiv, 61002, Ukraine) The article shows that ensuring energy security requires an integrated approach, including the search for and implementation of new sources of boiler fuel. Coke production and pyrolysis of coal coking by-products are among the promising areas that can balance the requirements of energy efficiency and environmental sustainability and can play a key role in ensuring a sustainable energy future for Ukraine. It has been demonstrated that intermediate products obtained in the process of coke production represent a promising source of furnace fuel. The development of new formulations allows not only to increase energy efficiency but also to reduce the negative impact on the environment. The pyrolysis of secondary resources opens up opportunities for expanding energy sources, which is becoming a key aspect of ensuring the energy security of the state. Relevant studies are highlighted. A sample of coal tar, which is not used for the production of electrode pitch grades in coke production, and pyrolysis liquid formed in the process of recycling rubber car tyres were taken for their analysis. The compatibility of these materials was assessed based on the presence or absence of sediment at the bottom of the container after thermostatting. The results showed that the compatibility of pyrolysis fluid and coal tar is quite low, with the maximum co-dissolution observed when mixing 20 % pyrolysis tar and 80 % coal tar. The flocculation coefficient was determined to be 0.7 units. This characterises the system as more prone to sedimentation. The inapplicability of the formula for calculating oil incompatibility (API MPMS 12.3) indicates a different mechanism of solvation of coal and pyrolysis resins than that of petroleum materials. Keywords: coal tar, boiler fuel, quinoline insoluble substances, pyrolysis liquid, compatibility, solvation. Corresponding author T.M. Kedun, e-mail: tatanakedun07@gmail.com

Ensuring Energy Security and Carbon Neutrality: Implications for Korea

Ensuring Energy Security and Carbon Neutrality: Implications for Korea

ВОЗОБНОВЛЯЕМЫЕ ИСТОЧНИКИ ЭНЕРГИИ В РОССИИ РАЗВИТИЕ И ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ

In recent years, renewable energy sources (RES) have become an increasingly important element of Russian energy policy. This work is devoted to the analysis of the development and prospects for the use of renewable energy sources in Russia. The main types of renewable energy sources are considered, such as solar, wind, hydropower, biomass and geothermal energy. Current achievements in this area are assessed, as well as the main obstacles and challenges facing their widespread implementation. Particular attention is paid to government policies and regulatory frameworks that stimulate the development of renewable energy sources, as well as investment and technological innovation. In conclusion, the prospects for the further development of renewable energy in Russia and its role in ensuring energy security and sustainable development of the country are considered.

The role of the energy factor in the formation and development of the EAEU

The article analyzes the role of the energy factor in the formation of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), as well as its impact on the dynamics of modern integration processes. The author also considers a number of processes and phenomena as an energy factor, such as the degree of resource security of states, the level of infrastructural development of their fuel and energy complexes (including technological, logistical and information infrastructure), interstate interaction in order to implement energy policy and ensure energy security. Based on the analysis of the historical prerequisites for the formation of the EAEU, it is concluded that energy was one of the key areas of common economic interests at the stage of the Union's inception, while remaining so today and determining the potential of Eurasian integration in the global arena, at the same time being the cause of a number of fundamental problems of unification. These problems, caused by resource inequality and infrastructural imbalance, have a profound impact on the dynamics of integration processes. Among such problems are significant differences in the strategic interests of the states in relation to the EAEU; insufficient consistency of positions on energy development strategies; different and to some extent contradictory expectations from the emerging common energy markets; an imbalance in the levels of responsibility for the overall stability of the integration association. The need for practical solutions to problems and contradictions of this kind is an important factor determining the vector of further development of the integration association, its transformation from a predominantly economic Union to a new level – supported by ideology and values shared by all its participants.

Detailed Analysis of Wind as an Energy Source for Achieving Sustainable Energy Generation

Currently, the world’s energy system is shifting towards sustainability in an attempt to reduce environmental impacts of climate change and ensure energy security. The article states a discourse on different mechanical progressions as well as arrangement measures aimed at addressing these challenges counting progressed determining devices, energy capacity innovations, and grid framework updates. The details about the wind energy system installations across the world and its potential output is being discussed that gives insight about how wind energy systems can be beneficial at different sites. The economic and natural challenges are provided that will make the decision-making process about the capacity to which dependency on wind energy can be made. The wind energy system installations need a thorough research and funding from the various institutions for its more reliable and efficient working. The various researches, investment, and commitment from governments, communities, and other sectors are basic to opening wind energy’s full potential and realizing its assurance as a energy proving source feeding power to the grid.