ENSO Forcing Research Articles

How Well Do Atmospheric General Circulation Models Capture the Leading Modes of the Interannual Variability of the Asian–Australian Monsoon?

Abstract The authors evaluate the performances of 11 AGCMs that participated in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project II (AMIP II) and that were run in an AGCM-alone way forced by historical sea surface temperature covering the period 1979–99 and their multimodel ensemble (MME) simulation of the interannual variability of the Asian–Australian monsoon (AAM). The authors explore to what extent these models can reproduce two observed major modes of AAM rainfall for the period 1979–99, which account for about 38% of the total interannual variances. It is shown that the MME SST-forced simulation of the seasonal rainfall anomalies reproduces the first two leading modes of variability with a skill that is comparable to the NCEP/Department of Energy Global Reanalysis 2 (NCEP-2) in terms of the spatial patterns and the corresponding temporal variations as well as their relationships with ENSO evolution. Both the biennial tendency and low-frequency components of the two leading modes are captured reasonably in MME. The skill of AMIP simulation is seasonally dependent. December–February (DJF) [July–August (JJA)] has the highest (lowest) skill. Over the extratropical western North Pacific and South China Sea, where ocean–atmosphere coupling may be critical for modeling the monsoon rainfall, the MME fails to demonstrate any skill in JJA, while the reanalysis has higher skills. The MME has deficiencies in simulating the seasonal phase of two anticyclones associated with the first mode, which are not in phase with ENSO forcing in observations but strictly match that of Niño-3.4 SST in MME. While the success of MME in capturing essential features of the first mode suggests the dominance of remote El Niño forcing in producing the predictable portion of AAM rainfall variability, the deficiency in capturing the seasonal phase implies the importance of local air–sea coupling effects. The first mode generally concurs with the turnabout of El Niño; meanwhile, the second mode is driven by La Niña at decaying stage. Multimodel intercomparison shows that there are good relationships between the simulated climatology and anomaly in terms of the degree of accuracy.

Tropical Water Vapor and Cloud Feedbacks in Climate Models: A Further Assessment Using Coupled Simulations

Abstract By comparing the response of clouds and water vapor to ENSO forcing in nature with that in Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations by some leading climate models, an earlier evaluation of tropical cloud and water vapor feedbacks has revealed the following two common biases in the models: 1) an underestimate of the strength of the negative cloud albedo feedback and 2) an overestimate of the positive feedback from the greenhouse effect of water vapor. Extending the same analysis to the fully coupled simulations of these models as well as other Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) coupled models, it is found that these two biases persist. Relative to the earlier estimates from AMIP simulations, the overestimate of the positive feedback from water vapor is alleviated somewhat for most of the coupled simulations. Improvements in the simulation of the cloud albedo feedback are only found in the models whose AMIP runs suggest either a positive or nearly positive cloud albedo feedback. The strength of the negative cloud albedo feedback in all other models is found to be substantially weaker than that estimated from the corresponding AMIP simulations. Consequently, although additional models are found to have a cloud albedo feedback in their AMIP simulations that is as strong as in the observations, all coupled simulations analyzed in this study have a weaker negative feedback from the cloud albedo and therefore a weaker negative feedback from the net surface heating than that indicated in observations. The weakening in the cloud albedo feedback is apparently linked to a reduced response of deep convection over the equatorial Pacific, which is in turn linked to the excessive cold tongue in the mean climate of these models. The results highlight that the feedbacks of water vapor and clouds—the cloud albedo feedback in particular—may depend on the mean intensity of the hydrological cycle. Whether the intermodel variations in the feedback from cloud albedo (water vapor) in the ENSO variability are correlated with the intermodel variations of the feedback from cloud albedo (water vapor) in global warming has also been examined. While a weak positive correlation between the intermodel variations in the feedback of water vapor during ENSO and the intermodel variations in the water vapor feedback during global warming was found, there is no significant correlation found between the intermodel variations in the cloud albedo feedback during ENSO and the intermodel variations in the cloud albedo feedback during global warming. The results suggest that the two common biases revealed in the simulated ENSO variability may not necessarily be carried over to the simulated global warming. These biases, however, highlight the continuing difficulty that models have in simulating accurately the feedbacks of water vapor and clouds on a time scale of the observations available.

Decadal and seasonal dependence of North Pacific sea surface temperature persistence

Decadal and seasonal dependence of the persistence characteristics of area‐averaged sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Pacific (150°E∼140°W, 20°N∼60°N) are investigated using two different SST data sets for the period 1948–2005. It is found that a persistence barrier exists around July–September (especially in September). This July–September persistence barrier is accompanied by a summer decline in the wind stress. The results confirm the existence of the July–September persistence barrier in the North Pacific SST discovered by Namias and Born (1970). Besides the seasonal change, North Pacific SST persistence also exhibits a pronounced decadal change. Taking all calendar months into account, North Pacific SST persistence is relatively strong from the mid‐1950s to the mid‐1960s but then weak from the mid‐1960s to the mid‐1980s, and becomes stronger again from the mid‐1980s until the mid‐1990s, after which it tends to become weak again. The recurrence of SST anomalies from one winter to the next is obvious from the mid‐1950s to mid‐1960s, but no obvious recurrence occurs after the mid‐1960s. Decadal changes of the Pacific−North America (PNA) pattern, the SST‐clouds feedback, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) are found to be related to those of North Pacific SST persistence. The PNA index shows a significant upward trend after the 1980s. Besides, the PNA pattern also exhibits a high persistence in winter from the mid‐1980s to the mid‐1990s. These changes of PNA pattern are favorable to the occurrence of strong SST persistence in winter from the mid‐1980s to the mid‐1990s. In summer, the positive feedback between the marine boundary clouds and SST enhances the SST persistence in the North Pacific. It is found that the positive feedback between the SST and clouds in the North Pacific during summer becomes stronger from the mid‐1980s to the mid‐1990s, which would contribute to the longer SST persistence in summer from the mid‐1980s to the mid‐1990s. The SOI shows negative correlation with the North Pacific SST persistence and the PNA index, indicating the remote forcing of ENSO on the North Pacific climate change. In addition, the high north Pacific SST persistence from the mid‐1980s to the mid‐1990s coincides with the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We concluded that the changes in the tropical SST or the PDO phase might explain the origin of decadal changes of North Pacific SST persistence.

CLIVAR-PAGES-WCRP summer school on El Niño

the role of equatorial waves in the ENSO recharge mechanism. In carrying out these research projects students applied the concepts taught during the lectures, such as the recharge oscillator paradigm, ENSO frequency entrainment, equatorial waves, basin modes, teleconnection patterns and multiplicative noise. Understanding ENSO's past requires an in-depth understanding of the coupled instability mechanisms that underlie ENSO and the annual cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Oversimplified concepts, such as the dynamical thermostat, can mislead paleo-proxy interpretations, and a thorough heat-budget analysis of corresponding model simulations is usually needed to understand ENSO changes that occurred with past climate forcings, such as orbitally induced variations in solar insolation. Numerous coupled general circulation model studies have demonstrated that for certain ENSO regimes a weaker (stronger) annual cycle corresponds to stronger (weaker) ENSO variability. Testing these model-derived relations with paleo-proxy data, such as corals, lake records, speleothems, mollusks, and tree rings, would be an important contribution towards a better understanding of ENSO forcing mechanisms in the past.

Climate effects on historical fires (1630 - 1900) in Utah

We inferred climate effects on fire occurrence from 1630 to 1900 for a new set of crossdated fire-scar chronologies from 18 forested sites in Utah and one site in eastern Nevada. Years with regionally synchronous fires (31 years with fire at ≥20% of sites) occurred during drier than average summers and years with no fires at any site (100 years) were wetter than average. Antecedent wet summers were associated with regional-fire years in mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forest types, possibly by affecting fine fuel amount and continuity. NINO3 (an index of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, ENSO) was significantly low during regional-fire years (La Niñas) and significantly high during non-fire years (El Niños). NINO3 also was high during years before regional-fire years. Although regional fire years occurred nearly twice as often as expected when NINO3 and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation were both in their cool (negative) phases, this pattern was not statistically significant. Palmer Drought Severity Index was important for fire occurrence in ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests across the study area but ENSO forcing was seen only in south-eastern sites. Results support findings from previous fire and climate studies, including a possible geographic pivot point in Pacific basin teleconnections at ~40°N.

Modulation of Westerly Wind Bursts by Sea Surface Temperature: A Semistochastic Feedback for ENSO

AbstractWesterly wind bursts (WWBs) in the equatorial Pacific are known to play a significant role in the development of El Niño events. They have typically been treated as a purely stochastic external forcing of ENSO. Recent observations, however, show that WWB characteristics depend upon the large-scale SST field. The consequences of such a WWB modulation by SST are examined using an ocean general circulation model coupled to a statistical atmosphere model (i.e., a hybrid coupled model). An explicit WWB component is added to the model with guidance from a 23-yr observational record. The WWB parameterization scheme is constructed such that the likelihood of WWB occurrence increases as the western Pacific warm pool extends: a “semistochastic” formulation, which has both deterministic and stochastic elements. The location of the WWBs is parameterized to migrate with the edge of the warm pool. It is found that modulation of WWBs by SST strongly affects the characteristics of ENSO. In particular, coupled feedbacks between SST and WWBs may be sufficient to transfer the system from a damped regime to one with self-sustained oscillations. Modulated WWBs also play a role in the irregular timing of warm episodes and the asymmetry in the size of warm and cold events in this ENSO model. Parameterizing the modulation of WWBs by an increase of the linear air–sea coupling coefficient seems to miss important dynamical processes, and a purely stochastic representation of WWBs elicits only a weak ocean response. Based upon this evidence, it is proposed that WWBs may need to be treated as an internal part of the coupled ENSO system, and that the detailed knowledge of wind burst dynamics may be necessary to explain the characteristics of ENSO.

A sensitivity study of the coupled simulation of the Northeast Brazil rainfall variability

Two long‐term coupled ocean‐land‐atmosphere simulations with slightly different parameterization of the diagnostic shallow inversion clouds in the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) of the Center for Ocean‐Land‐Atmosphere Studies (COLA) coupled climate model are compared for their annual cycle and interannual variability of the northeast Brazil (NEB) rainfall variability. It is seen that the solar insolation affected by the changes to the shallow inversion clouds results in large scale changes to the gradients of the SST and the surface pressure. The latter in turn modulates the surface convergence and the associated Atlantic ITCZ precipitation and the NEB annual rainfall variability. In contrast, the differences in the NEB interannual rainfall variability between the two coupled simulations is attributed to their different remote ENSO forcing.

The Impact of Cloud Radiative Feedback, Remote ENSO Forcing, and Entrainment on the Persistence of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Abstract The influence of cloud radiative feedback, remote ENSO heat flux forcing, and oceanic entrainment on persisting North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is investigated using a stochastically forced ocean mixed layer model. The stochastic heat flux is estimated from an atmospheric general circulation model, the seasonally varying radiative feedback parameter and remote ENSO forcing are obtained from observations, and entrainment is derived from the observed mean seasonal cycle of ocean mixed layer depth. Persistence is examined via SST autocorrelations in the western, central, and subtropical eastern North Pacific and for the leading pattern of variability across the basin. The contribution of clouds, ENSO, and entrainment to SST persistence is evaluated by comparing simulations with and without each term. The SST autocorrelation structure in the model closely resembles nature: the pattern correlation between the two is 0.87–0.9 in the three regions and for the basinwide analyses, and 0.35–0.66 after subtracting an exponential function representing the background damping resulting from air–sea heat fluxes. Positive radiative feedback enhances SST autocorrelations (∼0.1–0.3) from late spring to summer in the central and western Pacific and from late summer to fall in the subtropical eastern Pacific. The influence of the remote ENSO forcing on SST autocorrelation varies with season and location with a maximum impact on the correlation magnitude of 0.2–0.3. The winter-to-winter recurrence of higher autocorrelations is caused by entrainment, which generally suppresses SST variability but returns thermal anomalies sequestered beneath the mixed layer in summer back to the surface in the following fall/winter. This reemergence mechanism enhances SST autocorrelation by ∼0.3 at lags of 9–12 months from the previous winter in the western and central Pacific, but only slightly enhances autocorrelation (∼0.1) in the subtropical eastern Pacific. The impact of clouds, ENSO, and entrainment on the autocorrelation structure of the basinwide SST anomaly pattern is similar to that in the western region. ENSO’s impact on the basinwide North Pacific SST autocorrelation in an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to an ocean mixed layer model with observed SSTs specified in the tropical Pacific is very similar to the results from the stochastic model developed here.

Opposing oceanic and atmospheric ENSO influences on the Ross Sea Region, Antarctica

Abstract. Here we discuss the cause and effect of opposing atmospheric and oceanic ENSO forcings in the Ross Sea, that lead to a net warming in the eastern Ross Sea and a net cooling in the western Ross Sea during El Niño years. During La Niña years the opposite is observed. The oceanic ENSO effect causes a ~1 K warming with a 3 month lag during El Niño years in comparison to La Niña time periods. During El Niño events, the atmospheric ENSO effect leads to a shift and weakening of the Amundsen Sea Low, causing enhanced import of colder West Antarctic air masses into the western Ross Sea. We find that this indirect ENSO effect is about one order of magnitude stronger (up to 15 K) in the western Ross Sea than the direct effect (~1 K), leading to a net cooling during El Niño and net warming during La Niña events.

Westerly Wind Bursts: ENSO’s Tail Rather than the Dog?

Abstract Westerly wind bursts (WWBs) in the equatorial Pacific occur during the development of most El Niño events and are believed to be a major factor in ENSO’s dynamics. Because of their short time scale, WWBs are normally considered part of a stochastic forcing of ENSO, completely external to the interannual ENSO variability. Recent observational studies, however, suggest that the occurrence and characteristics of WWBs may depend to some extent on the state of ENSO components, implying that WWBs, which force ENSO, are modulated by ENSO itself. Satellite and in situ observations are used here to show that WWBs are significantly more likely to occur when the warm pool is extended eastward. Based on these observations, WWBs are added to an intermediate complexity coupled ocean–atmosphere ENSO model. The representation of WWBs is idealized such that their occurrence is modulated by the warm pool extent. The resulting model run is compared with a run in which the WWBs are stochastically applied. The modulation of WWBs by ENSO results in an enhancement of the slow frequency component of the WWBs. This causes the amplitude of ENSO events forced by modulated WWBs to be twice as large as the amplitude of ENSO events forced by stochastic WWBs with the same amplitude and average frequency. Based on this result, it is suggested that the modulation of WWBs by the equatorial Pacific SST is a critical element of ENSO’s dynamics, and that WWBs should not be regarded as purely stochastic forcing. In the paradigm proposed here, WWBs are still an important aspect of ENSO’s dynamics, but they are treated as being partially stochastic and partially affected by the large-scale ENSO dynamics, rather than being completely external to ENSO. It is further shown that WWB modulation by the large-scale equatorial SST field is roughly equivalent to an increase in the ocean–atmosphere coupling strength, making the coupled equatorial Pacific effectively self-sustained.

Effect of Preconditioning on the Extreme Climate Events in the Tropical Indian Ocean*

Abstract Sea surface temperature observations in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO) during the period 1950–2003 indicate that Indian Ocean dipole/zonal mode (IODZM) events are strong in two decades, namely, the 1960s and 1990s. Atmospheric reanalysis products in conjunction with output from an ocean model are examined to investigate the possible reason for the occurrence of strong IODZM events in these two decades. Specifically, the hypothesis that the mean thermocline in the EEIO is raised or lowered depending on the phase of Pacific decadal variability (PDV), preconditioning the EEIO to favor stronger or weaker IODZM activity, is examined. Diagnostics reveal that the EEIO is preconditioned by the traditional PDV signal (SVD1 of SST), deepening or shoaling the thermocline off south Java through its influence on the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF; oceanic teleconnection), and by residual decadal variability in the western and central Pacific (SVD2 of SST) that changes the equatorial winds over the Indian Ocean (atmospheric teleconnection). Both effects produce a background state that is either favorable or unfavorable for the thermocline–mixed layer interactions, and hence for the excitation of strong IODZM events. Collectively, SVD1 and SVD2 are referred to as PDV here. This hypothesis is tested with a suite of ocean model experiments. First, two runs are carried out, forced by climatological winds to which idealized easterly or westerly winds are added only over the equatorial Indian Ocean. As might be expected, in the easterly (westerly) run a shallower (deeper) thermocline is obtained over the EEIO. Then, observed winds from individual years are used to force the model. In these runs, anomalously cool SST in the EEIO develops only during decades when the thermocline is anomalously shallow, allowing entrainment of colder waters into the mixed layer. Since 1999 the PDV phase has changed, and consistent with this hypothesis the depth of the mean thermocline in the EEIO has been increasing. As a consequence, no IODZM developed during the El Niño of 2002, and only a weak cooling event occurred during the summer of 2003. This hypothesis likely also explains why some strong IODZM events occur in the absence of ENSO forcing, provided that PDV has preconditioned the EEIO thermocline to be anomalously shallow.

Seasonal Forecasting with a Simple General Circulation Model: Predictive Skill in the AO and PNA

Abstract A primitive equation dry atmospheric model is used to perform ensemble seasonal predictions. The predictions are done for 51 winter seasons [December–January–February (DJF)] from 1948 to 1998. Ensembles of 24 forecasts are produced, with initial conditions of 1 December plus small perturbations. The model uses a forcing field that is calculated empirically from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalyses. The forcing used to forecast a given winter is the sum of its winter climatological forcing plus an anomaly. The anomalous forcing is obtained as that of the month prior to the start of the forecast (November), which is also calculated from NCEP data. The predictions are thus made without using any information about the season to be predicted. The ensemble-mean predictions for the 51 winters are verified against the NCEP–NCAR reanalyses. Comparisons are made with the results obtained with a full GCM. It is found that the skill of the simple GCM is comparable in many ways to that of the full GCM. The skill in predicting the amplitude of the main patterns of Northern Hemisphere mean-seasonal variability, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern is also discussed. The simple GCM has skill not only in predicting the PNA pattern during winters with strong ENSO forcing, but it also has skill in predicting the AO in winters without appreciable ENSO forcing.

Impact of the 1997/98 ENSO on upper ocean characteristics in Marguerite Bay, western Antarctic Peninsula

A year‐round sequence of hydrographic casts is used to trace the evolution of the upper ocean waters in Marguerite Bay, western Antarctic Peninsula (wAP), between 1998 and 2002. Winter 1998 was anomalous, showing an unusually deep mixed layer that became progressively more saline until spring, reaching salinities as high as 34.0. The remnant of this mixed layer (the Winter Water, WW) was the deepest and most saline observed. Atmospheric and cryospheric conditions were anomalous during winter 1998 at both local and regional scales. Locally, we observed low sea ice concentrations, high air temperatures, and a high frequency of northerly winds. These are the local manifestations of the strong ENSO event of 1997/1998 that was then rapidly weakening. At the regional scale, this ENSO produced significant anomalies in the sea ice distribution throughout the Amundsen‐Bellingshausen Sea area, and a large‐scale low‐pressure anomaly over the southeast Pacific was seen to be responsible for the warm, northerly winds. We use a coupled mixed‐layer/ice production model to investigate the ENSO‐driven forcings for the anomalous ocean conditions observed in winter 1998. This reveals that ice production is the main control on upper ocean stratification, and that the deep, saline mixed layer in 1998 was forced by anomalous sea ice conditions on spatial scales larger than purely local. We conclude that the near‐coastal hydrography along the Peninsula shows a profound response to ENSO, with atmospheric and cryospheric forcings both implicated.

The Seasonal Footprinting Mechanism in the Pacific: Implications for ENSO*

Abstract Midlatitude atmospheric variability is identified as a particularly effective component of the stochastic forcing of ENSO. This forcing is realized via a seasonal footprinting mechanism (SFM), in which the tropical atmosphere is forced during the spring and summer by SST anomalies generated by midlatitude atmospheric variability during the previous winter. The strong relationship between the SFM and ENSO may serve to enhance ENSO predictability and supports the view that ENSO is linearly stable in nature.

Heavy Daily Precipitation Frequency over the Contiguous United States: Sources of Climatic Variability and Seasonal Predictability

By matching large-scale patterns in climate fields with patterns in observed station precipitation, this work explores seasonal predictability of precipitation in the contiguous United States for all seasons. Although it is shown that total seasonal precipitation and frequencies of less-than-extreme daily precipitation events can be predicted with much higher skill, the focus of this study is on frequencies of daily precipitation above the seasonal 90th percentile (P90), a variable whose skillful prediction is more challenging. Frequency of heavy daily precipitation is shown to respond to ENSO as well as to non-ENSO interannual and interdecadal variability in the North Pacific. Specification skill achieved by a statistical model based on contemporaneous SST forcing with and without an explicit dynamical atmosphere is compared and contrasted. Statistical models relating the SST forcing patterns directly to observed station precipitation are shown to perform consistently better in all seasons than hybrid (dynamical–statistical) models where the SST forcing is first translated to atmospheric circulation via three separate general circulation models and the dynamically computed circulation anomalies are statistically related to observed precipitation. Skill is summarized for all seasons, but in detail for January–February–March, when it is shown that predictable patterns are spatially robust regardless of the approach used. Predictably, much of the skill is due to ENSO. While the U.S. average skill is modest, regional skill levels can be quite high. It is also found that non-ENSO-related skill is significant, especially for the extreme Southwest and that this is due mostly to non-ENSO interannual and decadal variability in the North Pacific SST forcing. Although useful specification skill is achieved by both approaches, hybrid predictability is not pursued further in this effort. Rather, prognostic analysis is carried out with the purely statistical approach to analyze P90 predictability based on antecedent SST forcing. Skill at various lead times is investigated and it is shown that significant regional skill can be achieved at lead times of several months even in the absence of strong ENSO forcing.

A Diagnostic Study of the Role of Remote Forcing in Tropical Atlantic Variability

This observational study focuses on remote forcing of the dominant pattern of north tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies by ENSO and NAO. Based on a spring SST index of the north tropical Atlantic (NTA) SST (5°–25°N), it is shown that almost all NTA–SST extreme events from 1950 to the present can be related to either ENSO or NAO. Since the SST NTA events lag NAO and ENSO events, NTA variability is interpreted as being largely a response to remote NAO or ENSO forcing. The local response of the tropical Atlantic to these external sources—whether it be ENSO or the NAO—is observed to be rather similar: changes in surface winds induce changes in latent heating that, in turn, generate SST anomalies. Once generated, the latter are damped through local air–sea interaction, at a rate estimated to be 10 W m−2 K−1. Experiments with simple models, but driven by observations, strongly suggests that variability on interannual to interdecadal timescales—both time series and spectral signatures—can be largely explained as a result of direct atmospheric forcing, without the need to invoke a significant role for local unstable air–sea interactions or ocean circulation.

Atmospheric torques during the winter of 1989: Impact of ENSO and NAO positive phases

The axial component of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) reached a decadal minimum during the winter of 1989, when the cool (La Niña) phase of the ENSO cycle and the positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the related Arctic Oscillation (AO) were active. Here, we examine the global atmospheric dynamics associated with this event from the torque point of view. It will be shown how mountain torques on North America, South America and Europe related to these oscillations led to the AAM minimum, partly compensated by a positive ENSO‐related mountain torque over Asia. The friction torque had more nearly equal positive and negative anomalies associated with ENSO and NAO forcing, respectively, and made a smaller, offsetting contribution to the global AAM anomaly during this episode.

Natural signals in the MSU lower tropospheric temperature record

Volcanic and ENSO forcings explain nearly two‐thirds (63.5%) of the variance in monthly global temperature anomalies in the MSU lower tropospheric temperature observations from 1979 through 1999. While the raw trend in the drift‐adjusted 1979–99 global data is a statistically significant warming of 0.055°C/decade, the combination of volcanism and ENSO account for 25.4% of this trend, or 0.014°C/decade. The remaining trend, 0.041°C/decade, is left unexplained, likely comprising a combination of factors including the anthropogenic alterations to the collection of the earth's greenhouse gases, solar variability, and other forcings internal to the earth/atmosphere system. A recent widely cited attempt to explain the discrepancy between the rate of the observed increase in lower tropospheric MSU temperatures and the much larger value predicted by general circulation models weakens considerably when the known natural forcing mechanisms are more completely specified.

Reproducible Forced Modes in AGCM Ensemble Integrations and Potential Predictability of Atmospheric Seasonal Variations in the Extratropics

An approach to assess the potential predictability of the extratropical atmospheric seasonal variations in an ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) integrations has been proposed in this study by isolating reproducible forced modes and examining their contributions to the local ensemble mean. The analyses are based on the monthly mean output of an eight-member ensemble of 10-yr Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project integrations with a T42L18 AGCM. An EOF decomposition applied to the ensemble anomalies shows that there exist some forced modes that are less affected by the internal process and thus appear to be highly reproducible. By reconstructing the ensemble in terms of the more reproducible forced modes and by developing a quantitative measure, the potential predictability index (PPI), which combines the reproducibility with the local variance contribution, the local ensemble mean over some selective geographic areas in the extratropics was shown to result primarily from reproducible forced modes rather than internal chaotic fluctuations. Over those regions the ensemble mean is potentially predictable. Extratropical potentially predictable regions are found mainly over North America and part of the Asian monsoon regions. Interestingly, the potential predictability over some preferred areas such as Indian monsoon areas and central Africa occasionally results primarily from non-ENSO-related boundary forcing, although ENSO forcing generally dominates over most of the preferred areas. The quantitative analysis of the extratropical potential predictability with PPI has shown that the preferred geographic areas have obvious seasonality. For the 850-hPa temperature, for example, potentially predictable regions during spring and winter are confined to Alaska, northwest Canada, and the southeast United States, the traditional PNA region, while during summer and fall they are favored over the middle part of North America. It has also been shown that the boreal summer season (June–August) possesses the largest potentially predictable area, which seems to indicate that it is a favored season for the extratropical potential predictability. On the contrary, boreal winter (December–February) appears to have a minimum area of extratropical potential predictability. The results have been compared with the more traditional statistical tests for potential predictability and with observations from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis, which indicates that the PPI analysis proposed here is successful in revealing extratropical potential predictability determined by the external forcing.

Experimental Dendroclimatic Reconstruction of the Southern Oscillation

Exactly dated tree-ring chronologies from ENSO-sensitive regions in subtropical North America and Indonesia together register the strongest ENSO signal yet detected in tree-ring data worldwide and have been used to reconstruct the winter Southern Oscillation index (SOI) from 1706 to 1977. This reconstruction explains 53% of the variance in the instrumental winter SOI during the boreal cool season (December–February) and was verified in the time, space, and frequency domains by comparisons with independent instrumental SOI and sea surface temperature (SST) data. The large-scale SST anomaly patterns associated with ENSO in the equatorial and North Pacific during the 1879–1977 calibration period are reproduced in detail by this reconstruction. Cross-spectral analyses indicate that the reconstruction reproduces over 70% of the instrumental winter SOI variance at periods between 3.5 and 5.6 yr, and over 88% in the 4-yr frequency band. Oscillatory modes of variance identified with singular spectrum analysis at ~3.5,4.0, and 5.8 yr in both the instrumental and reconstructed series exhibit regimelike behavior over the 272-yr reconstruction. The tree-ring estimates also suggest a statistically significant increase in the interannual variability of winter SOI, more frequent cold events, and a slightly stronger sea level pressure gradient across the equatorial Pacific from the mid–nineteenth to twentieth centuries. Some of the variability in this reconstruction must be associated with background climate influences affecting the ENSO teleconnection to subtropical North America and may not arise solely from equatorial ENSO forcing. However, there is some limited independent support for the nineteenth to twentieth century changes in tropical Pacific climate identified in this reconstruction and, if substantiated, it will have important implications to the low-frequency dynamics of ENSO.