ENSO Events Research Articles

Climate anomalies influence tooth growth patterns of South American sea lions

AbstractEl Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) indirectly affect tooth growth of marine mammals, through changes in prey abundance, availability, and composition. This is reflected as variation in the dentine deposition, which determines the formation of annual layers, called growth layer groups (GLGs). The aim of this work was to study potential effects of ENSO and SAM on South American sea lion (Otaria byronia) of Patagonia, by examining interannual variability of GLG width. Adapting dendrochronological techniques, we analyzed 97 individuals (60 females and 37 males) and built six chronologies (three for each sex) by using cubic splines with different rigidity. Chronologies were correlated with MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index) and SAM index time series, considering lags in the biological response. The chronologies of females spanned 39 years and only two of these chronologies showed negative correlation with 1 year lagged SAM events. The chronologies of males spanned 23 years, but none showed significant correlation with these indexes. Our results did not indicate any ENSO effects on this species, while positive SAM events could reduce the abundance or availability of South American sea lion's prey, affecting the nutritional status of females and generating thinner GLGs during the next year.

Space-Time Assessment of Extreme Precipitation in Cuba between 1980 and 2019 from Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation Dataset

Precipitation extremes such as heavy rainfall and floods are of great interest for climate scientists, particularly for small islands vulnerable to weather phenomena such as hurricanes. In this study, we investigated the spatio-temporal evolution of extreme rainfall over Cuba from 1980 to 2019, separating the dry and rainy periods. In addition, a ranking of extreme precipitation events was performed, which provides the number of events, the area affected, and a ranking of their magnitude by considering the magnitude of anomalies. The analysis was conducted using daily data from the multi-source weighted-ensemble precipitation (MSWEPv2). In determining the extreme precipitation ranking, the daily extreme precipitation anomaly was calculated with respect to the 95th percentile climatological distribution, giving a measure of the rarity of the event for each day and each grid point. For a more detailed analysis regarding the ranking, a separation was made by regions applying the K-mean methodology. The months belonging to the rainy period of the year presented the highest amount of precipitation above the 95th percentile compared to results obtained for the dry period. Of the six months belonging to the cyclonic season, in five of them Cuba was affected, directly or indirectly, by a tropical cyclone. The years 1982–83 and 1998 presented the highest-ranking value for the dry and rainy periods, respectively. Moreover, a trend analysis revealed an increase in the trend of occurrence of extreme events and a decrease in the percentage of the area affected. The analysis by regions showed a similar behavior to that carried out for all of Cuba. It was found that the warm phase of the ENSO events influenced approximately ~22% of the occurrence of extreme events for both periods.

Climate influences on female survival in a declining population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina).

The Southern Ocean has been disproportionately affected by climate change and is therefore an ideal place to study the influence of changing environmental conditions on ecosystems. Changes in the demography of predator populations are indicators of broader shifts in food web structure, but long‐term data are required to study these effects. Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) from Macquarie Island have consistently decreased in population size while all other major populations across the Southern Ocean have recently stabilized or are increasing. Two long‐term mark‐recapture studies (1956–1967 and 1993–2009) have monitored this population, which provides an opportunity to investigate demographic performance over a range of climatic conditions. Using a 9‐state matrix population model, we estimated climate influences on female survival by incorporating two major climatic indices into our model: The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Our best model included a 1 year lagged effect of SAM and an unlagged SOI as covariates. A positive relationship with SAM1 (lagged) related the previous year's SAM with juvenile survival, potentially due to changes in local prey availability surrounding Macquarie Island. The unlagged SOI had a negative effect on both juvenile and adult seals, indicating that sea ice dynamics and access to foraging grounds on the East Antarctic continental shelf could explain the different contributions of ENSO events on the survival of females in this population.

Spatiotemporal variability of rainfall and its effect on hydrological regime in a tropical monsoon-dominated domain of Western Ghats, India

Study regionKerala, Southern Western Ghats, India Study focusA better understanding of the trends in rainfall, its distribution and characteristics is of paramount importance, for effective management of water resources, especially, in regions with marked spatiotemporal variability in rainfall. The present study examines the spatiotemporal changes in rainfall pattern and its effect on the hydrological regime of a tropical monsoon dominated region in Western Ghats, India. New hydrological insights for the regionWeakening of monsoon rains was observed in the region, with decreasing trend in monsoon season, increasing trend in pre-monsoon season as well as an accelerated change in rainfall pattern during the recent decades. Monsoon droughts are becoming more prominent as evidenced the increasing trend in total number of dry and prolonged dry spells. Seasonality Index of rainfall consistently showed decreasing trend indicating that the rainfall distribution is becoming more symmetric over the years. No significant relationship was observed between ENSO events and rainfall characteristics indicating that ENSO episodes do not considerably affect the variability of rainfall in the region. Effect of changes in rainfall characteristics have a strong bearing on the hydrological regime of the region, which was evident in the declining trend of streamflow and groundwater level. The study calls for a revised plan for water management, adaptive cropping pattern and reservoir operations in the state of Kerala.

Influencia del ENSO en los factores y agentes climáticos que inciden en las precipitaciones níveas de los Andes Áridos

The population of the regions surrounding the Arid Andes associates the state of the ENSO event (EN = oceanic component; SO = atmospheric component) with the amount of snowfall, in a direct way. This phenomenon is a natural event of the climate variability produced by the interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere in the equatorial Pacific (SST), and the differences in pressure in the western Pacific. The aim of this paper is to objectively elucidate and quantitatively specify the claims regarding the direct and erroneously considered unique relationship among snowfall and ENSO in the period between April-September, analyzing how it modifies each of the atmospheric, oceanic and ocean-atmosphere factors and agents. In addition, the articulation of these factors is investigated based on the ‘triggering’ of ENSO, which generates a ‘domino effect’ of concatenations that enhance/weaken snowfall.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation impacts on jumbo squid habitat: Implication for fisheries management

Abstract Dosidicus gigas is an ecologically and economically important squid species extensively distributed in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Its habitat is extremely sensitive to climatic and environmental variability. The relationship between habitat pattern of D. gigas and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO, divided into the El Niño, ENSO‐neutral, and La Niña events) was assessed from 1950 to 2015, using a habitat suitability index (HSI) modelling approach including two crucial environmental variables: sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height anomaly (SSHA). On the basis of cross‐correlation analysis, it showed that both SST anomaly and SSHA were significantly positively related to the ENSO index. Moreover, a significantly negative association was found between the HSI values and the ENSO index. Due to the El Niño events, SST off Peru became higher and sea level rose, resulting in contracted areas of suitable SST and SSHA; consequently, suitable habitats for D. gigas dramatically decreased. In contrast, during the ENSO‐neutral and La Niña years, the extent of suitable SST and SSHA increased due to the colder water and lower sea level, and suitable habitat for D. gigas expanded. Moreover, the latitudinal gravity centre of HSI was significantly positively associated with the ENSO index. Relative to the ENSO‐neutral and La Niña years, a southward movement of the monthly preferred SST isotherm for D. gigas during the El Niño years could explain the occurrence of more suitable habitats in southern waters off Peru. These findings suggested that the ENSO event plays an important role in regulating environmental conditions off Peru and further affected the spatio‐temporal distribution of D. gigas habitat.

Seasonal Predictability of Global and North American Coastal Sea Surface Temperature and Height Anomalies

AbstractA Linear Inverse Model (LIM) is constructed to evaluate predictability of seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) anomalies over the ice‐free global ocean. Its ensemble‐mean hindcast skill is also compared to that of the North American Multi‐Model Ensemble (NMME) for 1982–2010. Both have similar skill for dominant modes of SST variability, but regional NMME SST skill is somewhat higher in many locations. However, the LIM has considerably more Atlantic and Southern Ocean SSH skill. Skill is generally comparable along the North American coastline, but LIM skill is greater for several highly productive coastal zones and East Coast tide gauge stations. Diverse, often predictable ENSO events drive teleconnections providing predictability in the North Pacific and along the US West Coast. Predictability in the Atlantic and along the US East Coast is associated with Gulf Stream strength modulation. Overall, the LIM shows potential for seasonal prediction of coastal ocean conditions.

Inferring centennial terrigenous input for Patos Lagoon, Brazil: the world's largest choked coastal lagoon

This study introduces and discusses inorganic geochemical data from Patos Lagoon, the world’s largest choked coastal lagoon located in southern Brazil. Here, we characterise the sedimentary geochemical environment using different elemental ratios to assess the influence of both anthropogenic activities and the natural hydrological regime on the contemporary geochemical record. Three sediment cores collected in the freshwater domain of Patos Lagoon were analysed. Elements Al, Ca, Cr, Fe, K, Sr, Ti and V were determined by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES). Strong correlations between Sr and Ca, together with the lack of correlation with detrital elements suggested that carbonate precipitation is particularly important in this system. Lithogenic elements Al, K, Fe and Ti reflected the influence of the Guaiba River on the sedimentary sequences of Patos Lagoon. The K/Al ratio was used to investigate changes in weathering patterns and Ti/Al to evaluate grain size changes. Ti/Ca provided an excellent proxy for inferring historical changes in wetter and drier conditions, and also appears to be sensitive to the influence of ENSO events. Finally, the V/Cr ratio reflected the prevailing reducing conditions of the bottom sediments. Overall, our findings show that processes of sediment weathering, transport and deposition are mostly related to natural process, and given the large size of the system, the dilution processes could play an important role in attenuating geochemical changes related to human impacts.

Trends in sympatric otariid populations suggest resource limitations in the Peruvian Humboldt Current System

Sympatric species evolve mechanisms to avoid competition and coexist. In the Humboldt Current System (HCS), populations of South American sea lions (SASL, Otaria byronia) and South American fur seals (SAFS, Arctocephalus australis) fluctuate mostly due to ENSO events and prey availability. We evaluate population trajectories of Peruvian sympatric otariids and discuss mechanisms for competition and/or resource limitation. For this purpose, we analyzed population trajectories of SASL and SAFS in a sympatric breeding site in Punta San Juan, Peru between 2001 and 2019. Wavelet analysis was used to extract trends and derivatives to estimate rates and turning points. Age-class proportions and biomass times series were constructed from weekly counts and evaluated. Both populations show a growth phase and subsequent decline. SAFS started to decline ~2.25 years before and at a rate 1.5 times faster than SASL. Decrease in juvenile age-class suggests that resource limitation is the main contributing factor for current population decline.

Sea Surface Temperature Variability over the Tropical Indian Ocean during the ENSO and IOD Events in 2016 and 2017

2016 and 2017 were marked by strong El Niño and weak La Niña events, respectively, in the tropical East Pacific Ocean. The strong El Niño and weak La Niña events in the Pacific significantly impacted the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and were followed by extreme negative and weak positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phases in 2016 and 2017, which triggered floods in the Indian subcontinent and drought conditions in East Africa. The IOD is an irregular and periodic oscillation in the Indian Ocean, which has attracted much attention in the last two decades due to its impact on the climate in surrounding landmasses. Much work has been done in the past to investigate global climate change and its impact on the evolution of IOD. The dynamic behind it, however, is still not well understood. The present study, using various satellite datasets, examined and analyzed the dynamics behind these events and their impacts on SST variability in the TIO. For this study, the monthly mean SST data was provided by NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST). SST anomalies were measured on the basis of 30-year mean daily climatology (1981–2010). It was determined that the eastern and western poles of the TIO play quite different roles during the sequence of negative and positive IOD phases. The analysis of air-sea interactions and the relationship between wind and SST suggested that SST is primarily controlled by wind force in the West pole. On the other hand, the high SST that occurred during the negative IOD phase induced local convection and westerly wind anomalies via the Bjerknes feedback mechanism. The strong convection, which was confined to the (warm) eastern equatorial Indian Ocean was accompanied by east–west SST anomalies that drove a series of downwelling Kelvin waves that deepened the thermocline in the east. Another notable feature of this study was its observation of weak upwelling along the Omani–Arabian coast, which warmed the SST by 1 °C in the summer of 2017 (as compared to 2016). This warming led to increased precipitation in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) region during the summer of 2017. The results of the present work will be important for the study of monsoons and may be useful in predicting both droughts and floods in landmasses in the vicinity of the Indian Ocean, especially in the Indian subcontinent and East African regions.

Two-Year Dynamical Predictions of ENSO Event Duration during 1954–2015

AbstractEl Niño and La Niña events show a wide range of durations over the historical record. The predictability of event duration has remained largely unknown, although multiyear events could prolong their climate impacts. To explore the predictability of El Niño and La Niña event duration, multiyear ensemble forecasts are conducted with the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1). The 10–40-member forecasts are initialized with observed oceanic conditions on 1 March, 1 June, and 1 November of each year during 1954–2015; ensemble spread is created through slight perturbations to the atmospheric initial conditions. The CESM1 predicts the duration of individual El Niño and La Niña events with lead times ranging from 6 to 25 months. In particular, forecasts initialized in November, near the first peak of El Niño or La Niña, can skillfully predict whether the event continues through the second year with 1-yr lead time. The occurrence of multiyear La Niña events can be predicted even earlier with lead times up to 25 months, especially when they are preceded by strong El Niño. The predictability of event duration arises from initial thermocline depth anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, as well as sea surface temperature anomalies within and outside the tropical Pacific. The forecast error growth, on the other hand, originates mainly from atmospheric variability over the North Pacific in boreal winter. The high predictability of event duration indicates the potential for extending 12-month operational forecasts of El Niño and La Niña events by one additional year.

ENSO Diversity in a Tropical Stochastic Skeleton Model for the MJO, El Niño, and Dynamic Walker Circulation

AbstractEl Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diversity has a significant impact on global climate and seasonal prediction. However, it is still a challenging problem for present-day global climate models to simulate different types of ENSO events with realistic features simultaneously. In this paper, a tropical stochastic skeleton model for the interactions among wind bursts and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), the El Niño, and the Walker circulation is developed to reproduce both dynamical and statistical features of the ENSO diversity. In this model, the intraseasonal component with state-dependent noise captures general features of wind bursts and the MJO, both of which play important roles in triggering the El Niño. The thermocline feedback is the dominant mechanism for generating the eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño, while a nonlinear zonal advection is incorporated into the model that contributes to the central Pacific (CP) El Niño. Besides, a simple but effective stochastic process describing the multidecadal variation of the background Walker circulation modulates the spatial patterns and occurrence frequency of the EP and CP El Niño. This model succeeds in simulating the quasi-regular moderate EP El Niño, the super El Niño, and the CP El Niño as well as the La Niña simultaneously. It also captures the observed non-Gaussian characteristics of sea surface temperature anomalies in different Niño regions. Individual case studies highlight the outstanding skill of the model in reproducing the observed El Niño episodes and their underlying mechanisms.

The Importance of Central Pacific Meridional Heat Advection to the Development of ENSO

AbstractThe relationship between the Warm Water Volume (WWV) ENSO precursor and ENSO SST weakened substantially after ~2000, coinciding with a degradation in dynamical model ENSO prediction skill. It is important to understand the drivers of the equatorial thermocline temperature variations and their linkage to ENSO onsets. In this study, a set of ocean reanalyses is employed to assess factors responsible for the variation of the equatorial Pacific Ocean thermocline during 1982-2019. Off-equatorial thermocline temperature anomalies carried equatorward by the mean meridional currents associated with Pacific Tropical Cells are shown to play an important role in modulating the central equatorial thermocline variations, which is rarely discussed in the literature. Further, ENSO events are delineated into two groups based on precursor mechanisms: the western equatorial type (WEP) ENSO, when the central equatorial thermocline is mainly influenced by the zonal propagation of anomalies from the western Pacific, and the off-equatorial central Pacific (OCP) ENSO, when off-equatorial central thermocline anomalies play the primary role. WWV is found to precede all WEP ENSO by 6-9 months, while the correlation is substantially lower for OCP ENSO events. In contrast, the central tropical Pacific (CTP) precursor, which includes off-equatorial thermocline signals, has a very robust lead correlation with the OCP ENSO. Most OCP ENSO events are found to follow the same ENSO conditions, and the number of OCP ENSO increases substantially since the 21st century. These results highlight the importance of monitoring off-equatorial subsurface preconditions for ENSO prediction and to understand multi-year ENSO.

Responses of Summer Upwelling to Recent Climate Changes in the Taiwan Strait

The response of a summer upwelling system to recent climate change in the Taiwan Strait has been investigated using a time series of sea surface temperature and wind data over the period 1982–2019. Our results revealed that summer upwelling intensities of the Taiwan Strait decreased with a nonlinear fluctuation over the past four decades. The average upwelling intensity after 2000 was 35% lower than that before 2000. The long-term changes in upwelling intensities show strong correlations with offshore Ekman transport, which experienced a decreasing trend after 2000. Unlike the delay effect of canonical ENSO events on changes in summer upwelling, ENSO Modoki events had a significant negative influence on upwelling intensity. Strong El Niño Modoki events were not favorable for the development of upwelling. This study also suggested that decreased upwelling could not slow down the warming rate of the sea surface temperature and would probably cause the decline of chlorophyll a in the coastal upwelling system of the Taiwan Strait. These results will contribute to a better understanding of the dynamic process of summer upwelling in the Taiwan Strait, and provide a sound scientific basis for evaluating future trends in coastal upwelling and their potential ecological effects.

Restored relationship between ENSO and Indian summer monsoon rainfall around 1999/2000

SummaryEl Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was identified as the dominant predictor for the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) in the early 1900s. An apparent weakening of the ENSO–ISMR relationship has been observed since the 1970s. Here, we found a clear restoration of the ENSO–ISMR relationship since 1999/2000. This restoring relationship is closely linked to the interdecadal transition of ENSO evolution and the associated sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the tropical Atlantic. During 1979–1997, summer ENSO events mainly continued from the previous winter, which can drive apparent Atlantic Niña SSTAs to offset ENSO's impact on ISMR and weaken the ENSO–ISMR relationship. In contrast, when ENSO events newly emerge from late spring, as they have done more recently during 2000–2018, the associated tropical Atlantic SSTAs are weak and shift to the tropical North Atlantic, which can offset the contribution of Atlantic Niña and reinforce the ENSO–ISMR relationship. We identified that the diversity of ENSO's evolution, continuing from the previous winter or emerging from late spring, is the dominant factor perturbing the ENSO–ISMR relationship in recent epochs, with tropical Atlantic SSTAs as the crucial bridge. This finding should be considered in our efforts to improve ISMR prediction.

Recovery of logged forest fragments in a human-modified tropical landscape during the 2015-16 El Ni\xf1o

The past 40 years in Southeast Asia have seen about 50% of lowland rainforests converted to oil palm and other plantations, and much of the remaining forest heavily logged. Little is known about how fragmentation influences recovery and whether climate change will hamper restoration. Here, we use repeat airborne LiDAR surveys spanning the hot and dry 2015-16 El Niño Southern Oscillation event to measure canopy height growth across 3,300 ha of regenerating tropical forests spanning a logging intensity gradient in Malaysian Borneo. We show that the drought led to increased leaf shedding and branch fall. Short forest, regenerating after heavy logging, continued to grow despite higher evaporative demand, except when it was located close to oil palm plantations. Edge effects from the plantations extended over 300 metres into the forests. Forest growth on hilltops and slopes was particularly impacted by the combination of fragmentation and drought, but even riparian forests located within 40 m of oil palm plantations lost canopy height during the drought. Our results suggest that small patches of logged forest within plantation landscapes will be slow to recover, particularly as ENSO events are becoming more frequent.

Monthly Variations of the Winter Precipitation over the Philippines During the Mature Phase of Eastern Pacific El Niño

The influence of ENSO events on winter precipitation anomalies in the Philippines has been well known since decades, but whether this effect is different between months needs further exploration. In this study, the monthly variations of precipitation over the Philippines in winter during the mature phases of ENSO events are investigated with datasets of reanalysis and observations from 1979 to 2019. Results indicate that only the eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño shows different influences on the Philippines winter precipitation among different months. In December during mature EP El Niño events, precipitation deficiency is not significant over the whole Philippines, whereas in January and February, precipitation decreases significantly over the southern Philippines as well as the areas to the southeast of the Philippines. Besides, the correlation between consecutive dry days over the southeast Philippines and ENSO is significantly positive in January and February but not in December. The eastward propagation of EP El Niño–related anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific (WNPAC) from December to February is proved responsible for the changed relationship between EP El Niño and precipitation. In December, the center of the WNPAC is located to the southeast of the Indo-China Peninsula, inducing weak lower-level wind anomalies and, consequently, weak vertical movement and water vapor transport anomalies over the Philippines, which exerts limited influence on the local precipitation. In January and February, by contrast, the center of WNPAC is located to the southeast of the Philippines, and therefore the southern Philippines is occupied by anticyclonic moisture transports and downward vertical motions, favoring less precipitations and larger than normal consecutive dry days over there.

The Impact of Two Types of ENSO Events on Tropical Cyclones in the Northwest Pacific

Based on the best track data set of tropical cyclones and ENSO index, the influence of two kinds of ENSO events on tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific Ocean is discussed based on the El Niño / La Niña event discrimination method recently issued by China Meteorological Administration. The results show that ENSO events have an important impact on the TC activity in the Northwest Pacific. The frequency of TC formation in La Niña year is more than that in El Niño year, and the duration and ACE of TC in El Niño year are greater than those in La Niña year. From the comparison of TC activities at different levels, the impact of ENSO events on high-level TC (STY and SuperTY) is greater than that of low-level TC. On the whole, the TC in the Northwest Pacific is greatly affected by the CP-ENSO event, and the high-level TC (SuperTY) is most affected by the EP-ENSO event. In terms of the origin location, the differences of the impact of the two ENSO events on TC origins of different levels are mainly reflected in the differences between the northern and southern South China Sea, and the differences between the southeast and Northwest Pacific.

Linking Holocene East Asian monsoon variability to solar forcing and ENSO activity: Multi-proxy evidence from a peatland in Northeastern China

High-resolution proxy-based paleoenvironmental records derived from peatlands provide important insights into climate changes over centennial to millennial timescales. In this study, we present a composite climatic index (CCI) for the Hani peatland from northeastern China, based on an innovative combination of pollen-spore, phytolith, and grain size data. We use the CCI to reconstruct variations of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity during the Holocene. This is accomplished with complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD), REDFIT, and cross-wavelet coherency analysis to reveal the periodicities (frequencies) of the multi-proxy derived CCI sequences and to assess potential external forcing of the EASM. The results showed that periodicities of ca. 300–350, 475, 600, 1075, and 1875 years were present in the Hani CCI sequence. Those periodicities are consistent with previously published periodicities in East Asia, indicating they are a product of external climate controls over an extensive region, rather than random variations caused by peatland-specific factors. Cross-wavelet coherency analysis between the decomposed CCI components and past solar activity reconstructions suggests that variations of solar irradiation are most likely responsible for the cyclic characteristics at 500-year frequency. We propose a conceptual model to interpret how the sun regulates the monsoon climate via coupling with oceanic and atmospheric circulations. It seems that slight solar irradiation changes can be amplified by coupling with ENSO events, which result in a significant impact on the regional climate in the East Asian monsoon area.

A July-August relative humidity record in North China since 1765 AD reconstructed from tree-ring cellulose δ18O.

Since the late 1970s, East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) has shown a significant weakening trend, and sustained drought has occurred across North China. Placing recent climate changes in the paleoclimatic context can better understand the EASM variations. Four δ18O sequences based on tree-ring cellulose of Chinese pine were developed from Mt. Beiwudang, North China, covering a period from 1700 to 2013. Based on a climatic response analysis, a transfer function was designed to reconstruct the relative humidity from July to August (RHJA hereafter). The RHJA spans from 1765 to 2013 and explains 49% (R2adj = 48%) of the instrumental variance during the calibration period (1961-2013, r = - 0.70, p < 0.0001). The RHJA is mainly influenced by precipitation in the summer rainy season and reflect EASM variations. Spatial representation analysis indicates that RHJA represents the dry/wet variations across North China. At the interannual scale, RHJA records many extreme dry/wet events, among which the events in 1876-1878, 1900, and the 1920s are extensive droughts. Those events correspond well to ENSO events, plus further correlation and periodicity analysis indicate that RHJA contains ENSO signals. At the interdecadal scale, RHJA shows a decreasing trend and unprecedented low values from 1981 to 2013, suggesting that the weakening of EASM since the late 1970s is unprecedented in the past 249 years. Similarly, the significantly correlating region in the spatial correlation analysis, covering the Meiyu/Baiu/Changma rainfall belt and India, have also undergone a climatic shift since the late 1970s according to previous papers.