NATO Enlargement Research Articles

Transformation of the post-cold war order and the global and regional powers policy in the South Caucasus after the 2020 Karabakh war

The end of the Cold War ushered in a Unipolar world characterized by the US hegemony. In 1990s and early 2000s the US was realizing the strategy of “liberal hegemony” with emphasis on democracy promotion in the former socialist camp. The NATO enlargement and the support to the EU extension were key pillars of this strategy. There was a perception among pundits and policymakers that the “liberal democracy” will spread all over the world, bringing a new era of peace and stability. However, the Unipolar moment was short lived. The global financial crisis of 2007-2008 marked the beginning of the transformation of the post-Сold War order. The reasons behind this transformation are numerous - the relative decline of the US, the rise of others, most notably China, and the launch of the new multilateral organizations such as BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The transformation of the post-cold war order brings back the notion of multipolar world and the “great power competition”. The emergence of the "multi-polar world order" will inevitably trigger regional instability and the rivalry for regional hegemony. The absence of the world hegemon or the "world policeman" means that the second-tier states will be more inclined to use coercion as the primary tool to push forward their national interests. The world is facing the unraveling of the global world order with very few clues on what the new emerging order may look like. One pattern is obvious - states are putting more emphasis on the coercion, force and hybrid warfare as a key element of their foreign policy. Meanwhile, the absence of global hegemon triggers the tough and often violent struggle for dominance among regional powers. The South Caucasus was an arena of overlapping interests of many actors - Russia, the US, the EU, Turkey, and Iran. While in 1990s and 2000s the geopolitical configuration of the region was based on the competition between Turkey - Azerbaijan - Georgia partnership supported by the US, and Russia - Armenia alliance, the situation has changed in recent years. Turkey’s quest for independent foreign policy and growing tensions between Turkey and the US have resulted in a establishment of competitive/cooperative relations between Russia and Turkey. Ankara and Moscow are still competitors but they are able to manage their contradictions. The 2020 Karabakh war was a harbinger of upcoming changes in the regional balance of power. Azerbaijan won the war receiving significant military support from Turkey, Armenia suffered significant losses, while Russia deployed its peacekeepers in Nagorno Karabakh. As South Caucasus faces the growing competition between external actors vying for influence, and as Russia - West relations were completely ruined after the February 2022, the region has become another arena for Russia - West competition. The US and the EU are interested to push Russian peacekeepers out from Nagorno Karabakh after the end of the initial five-year term, viewing this as a significant step in reducing Russian influence in the region. Meanwhile, Russia seeks to stabilize relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, meanwhile keeping its military presence in Nagorno Karabakh. Despite the growing tensions between Turkey and the US, Ankara still remains main tool for the US in its efforts to decrease Russian power in South Caucasus.

Ungarn, der EU-Rechtstaatlichkeitsmechanismus und Russlands Krieg gegen die Ukraine: die politische Geiselnahme außenpolitischer Entscheidungen

The European Union’s (EU) as well as NATO’s internal cohesion and their capacity to act is crucial to meet the security challenges due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The article discusses Hungary’s threats to veto vital EU sanctions against Russia as well as NATO enlargement. In particular, we focus on how Hungary has resorted to hostage-taking strategies in the field of the EU’s Foreign and Security Policy as well as NATO to gain EU concessions in unrelated policy areas like the Article 7 procedure or the COVID recovery funds. In doing so, Hungary aims to articulate its veto threat in a credible way, but at the same time it is trying to minimise the associated loss of reputation. To date, Hungary has succeeded in obtaining selective concessions from the other EU member states without derailing the sanctions policies against Russia or the NATO enlargement process.

The evolution of NATO policy in the conditions of the russian-Ukrainian war

Abstract. The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the evolution of NATO policy within the context of the russian-Ukrainian war. The North Atlantic Alliance consistently demonstrates its commitment as a reliable guarantor of peace, security, and stability for its member countries. The foundation of NATO’s accomplishments lies in its dependable and effective institutional structure, well-regulated political consultation mechanisms geared towards consensus-building, and the aspiration to constantly maintain and improve the balance of transatlantic interests. The russian invasion of Ukraine has prompted a critical reassessment of NATO’s role and its development prospects, primarily regarding the imperative of strengthening the Alliance’s defensive potential, the expansion of its operational scope, and the refinement of its security missions. The new Strategic Concept outlined NATO’s priorities, core objectives, and approaches. It also identified the main threats to Euro-Atlantic security and proposed countermeasures for the next decade. The Alliance reacted to the kremlin’s aggressive intentions by activating its defence plans and deploying additional military formations on NATO’s eastern flank, backed by significant air and naval potential. Moreover, the Alliance enhances the reliability of nuclear forces, strengthens the operational capabilities of conventional armed forces and anti-missile defence assets, and reinforces the resilience of member countries for collective defence. An analysis of Ukraine’s relations with NATO amidst the large-scale russian aggression underscores that the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people could facilitate a quick accession of Ukraine to the Alliance following the end of the war. An invitation to Ukraine at the 2023 Vilnius Summit opens prospects for establishing long-term sustainable peace in Europe. Keywords: NATO, russian aggression, Strategic Concept, NATO expansion, Euro-Atlantic integration of Ukraine.

Rusija, sukob u Ukrajini i novi prostorni i geopolitički poredak

The conflict in Ukraine is the subject of contradictory narratives in the communication war, but also reflects the rival historical and geopolitical representations between the different actors of this conflict. According to the geopolitical angle, the main issue of the crisis in Ukraine is the rivalry between the great powers for world power and the distribution of geopolitical spaces. The geopolitical angle thus makes it possible to take into account the numerous stakes linked to this crisis on different scales, which go well beyond the purely geostrategic and military aspects. The main hypothesis of this article is to determine to what extent Russia, with its special military operation in Ukraine, is pushing for the emergence of a new geopolitical configuration on a European and global scale. Indeed, Moscow is provoking a redefinition of alliances at the regional and global levels. At the Eurasian level, NATO will probably no longer be able to pursue a policy of expansion in the Russian near abroad (countries of the former USSR), the enlargement of NATO to Ukraine being a casus belli, as the Russian intervention has shown. On a global scale, Russia's membership in the UN Security Council now prevents any unilateral interpretation of international law by the collective West. Moreover, economic sanctions by EU and NATO member states are not being followed by other states in Eurasia, South America and Africa, challenging the unipolar project of the West under the leadership of the United States. The European Union is increasingly aligned with the geopolitical priorities of NATO and the United States, with little room for manoeuvre. Russia's special operation in Ukraine is definitely moving the world towards a multicentric and multipolar geopolitical configuration, with no possibility of returning to the pre-conflict situation. In this analysis, geopolitical cartography will be used to illustrate the problematics but also to emphasize the spatial angle as an analytical tool.

Socio-Economic Perils of Russo-Ukranian War: The 2014 and 2022 Experiences

Moscow’s war against Ukraine in 2014 and its continuation from February 2022 may be described as an asymmetrical war. This is because Russian military far outnumbered that of Ukraine. The war has been described as the most devastated in Europe since 1945 as thousands of lives have been destroyed. Russia has not been able to defeat Russia in over eighteen months into the war but it (Russia) has equally refused to cease fire despite the economic sanctions by United States of America and other western powers. The country (Russia) has remained resolute in its determination to continue with the war against Ukraine. There are many arguments in literatures on causes of the war. Some of these arguments include territorial disputes over Crimea and Donbas region, Russia’s perception of North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) expansion as a threat, ideological and cultural differences between Russia and Ukraine, legacies of the Soviet Union, including the collapse of Soviet Union and the rise of nationalism. Scholars have not reached any consensus about which of these factors is most important, and there is no single explanation that captured all the complexities of the conflict. This paper argues that although there are historical, political and economic factors that contributed to the outbreak of the war, the eastward expansion of NATO is the primary reason. The article is exploratory and analytical. It critically analyzes some tertiary sources (internet materials) and at the same time uses critical theory in international relations to explain the causes of the war. It also draws some important sources, including records of governmental and nongovernmental organizations. The paper concluded that the war has negatively affected the world socio-economically and any peace process that did not include internationally-monitored referendum in disputed areas like Crimea and Donbas cannot be said to be a complete peace process.

SWOT analiza ruske arktičke strategije - vojni aspekt

Climate change has induced global warming, which resulted in the rapid melting of the northern ice CAP in the last decade and a half. In addition to allowing the vast resources stored in the area to eventually become available for exploitation, it also made the northern borders of the Arctic coastal states exposed to potential attack. Aware of this, Russia, the United States of America, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Iceland and Finland have begun the process of militarization of the region. In this paper, the authors focused on Russia's military activities in the High North, and the SWOT matrix was used for their analysis. Accordingly, the main goal of the work was to determine the main strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats that characterize Russian military engagement in the aforementioned area. The analysis showed that the massive presence of infrastructure and military personnel form the backbone of Russian military power in the mentioned area. Within this context, missile systems (hypersonic and other), which are technologically superior to those possessed by the competition, are of particular importance. The absence of a significant presence of NATO military forces in the given area and the strengthening of military cooperation with the Chinese in the Arctic are a chance for Russia to further strengthen its position. On the other hand, the analysis also showed that Russian military activism in the area around the North Pole is characterized by certain weaknesses. The inconsistency of the development of the military component with the economic, social and other aspects of power projection in the region represents the most important one. Apart from leading to an uneven development of the overall potential in the Russian part of the Arctic and thereby preventing the implementation of an integral strategy, it simultaneously makes it difficult to carry out planning and operational military activities, primarily because it causes the emergence of logistical and other gaps. In addition to the above, the condition of a part of the Russian military equipment is also an obvious weakness. It is not at a satisfactory level, which, among other things, is evidenced by frequent accidents related to this issue. With this in mind, climate change is also a relevant factor. They caused the melting of the ice sheet, which throughout history served as a natural shield of the northern Russian borders. With its disappearance, those borders become more open to attack by potential aggressors, at the same time complicating the protection of the Northern Sea Route. The main threat for Russia, according to the analytical matrix, is the announced expansion of NATO. Namely, if Sweden and Finland join that military alliance, the border between Russia and NATO will double. Given that the two Scandinavian countries were militarily neutral for many years, the Russians had no need to build massive defense capabilities along the dividing line with Finland, nor to significantly protect their strategic installations on the Kola Peninsula from a potential threat that could threaten them from that direction. However, if the circumstances change, Kremlin will face obvious problems. These problems primarily refer to the absence of military infrastructure along the mentioned border, but also to the shortcomings related to civilian capacities in the said area, which directly or indirectly hinder the logistical functioning of the army. Nevertheless, if the circumstances change, Kremlin will face obvious problems. The authors conclude that Kremlin should undertake the uniform development of all Arctic potentials, in order for Russia to maintain its position as the leading nation in the region. Only in this way protection of borders and security of resources would be at an optimal level, both in peacetime and in conditions of armed conflict.

NATO's Pivot to the East: Motives and Problems

The article examines such a new phenomenon in world geopolitics as NATO's desire to expand its activities to the Asia-Pacific region. Along with Washington, in recent years, Western European states have been showing increasing concerns about China's growing economic and military relations, seeing it as a threat to their interests not only in the field of economics and technology, but increasingly in the field of security. China's economic, technological, and military-political ambitions are traditionally of particular concern to neighboring Japan. Promoting the idea of the indivisibility of the security of the Indo-Pacific and European regions, Tokyo intends to involve a number of European states in the geopolitical plan to contain China, despite the fact that geographically they are on the opposite side of the planet from China. The NATO leadership, which shares the concept of the indivisibility of the security of the two regions, in its own doctrinal documents, along with Russia, also brings China to the forefront as a threat to its security. In the Asia-Pacific region, NATO intends to strengthen security relations with Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. However, the coincidence of the interests of Japan and Western European states in containing the "rising China" makes Japan actually the main conductor of the expansion of NATO's activities in the Asia-Pacific region. At the NATO summit in Vilnius in 2023, Japan and the North Atlantic Alliance agreed on a document outlining 16 areas of cooperation until 2026. NATO's pivot to the Asian East causes wariness not only in Beijing and Moscow, but also in a number of Asia-Pacific countries. Critics of NATO's advance into Asia fear that it could lead to increased tension and destabilization in the field of regional security.

Год, который изменил мир

The steady expansion of NATO to the East and the actual incorporation of Ukraine into the alliance, as well as the urgent need to ensure the security of the population of Donbass forced Russia to conduct a special military operation (SVO). In response to this demarche of Moscow, the United States unleashed a full-scale proxy war against Russia in the hope of achieving a strategic defeat of our country. Guided solely by its own geopolitical interests, Washington is constantly increasing the level of escalation of the conflict, balancing on the brink of a major war with a high risk of its developing into a nuclear one.

Kubanska i Ukrajinska kriza u svetlu globalne geopolitičke dinamike

Crises tend to crystallize developments in the world order and although many claim that we live in a postcolonial era, the reality is that the past is not divorced from the present. Even though the Cuban missile crisis in 1962. didn't end up in raging nuclear warfare, and to a certain degree lessened the Cold War's tensions by establishing better communication between the White House and the Kremlin, the consequences of the U.S.-Russian strategic confrontation were inherently negative, due to the fact that the Crisis actually served to stimulate an arms race competition between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, and overall, the spread of nuclear weapons. In light of this, the world has become highly unstable. First we had bipolarity, and then, after the Post-Cold War era of relative moderation in international politics, the unipolarity of American hegemony, and now, with China and America as the two main actors, the phase of emerging multipolarity has come. While in the past global peace was kept by preventing major military conflicts between great powers, nowadays, the maintenance of global security and worldwide peace requires not only containment of nuclear proliferation but also the implementation of new nuclear doctrines and policies that will diminish the roll and significance of nuclear weapons, and thus nuclear instability. At the other hand, due to its hegemonic status, the U.S. has started to arrogantly impose its interest all over the world and violate international law. Cultivating the Cold War mentality, while overriding sovereignty and interfering in international affairs of other countries, the U.S. has been using the same recipe for over a 6 decades. Within the scope of dealing with the Cuban and the Ukrainian crisis, the U.S. have used same old strategy and tactics based on subversive regime destabilization - from the imposition of pro-American regimes, unfair and forcefully imposed sanctions, proxy wars, to the creation of false narratives which divide public opinion and incite judgement of other countries, etc. Moreover, under the label of national security, human rights and democracy, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and against Russian demands, the U.S. continued NATO expansion to the East, endangering Russian security and paving its way to Euroasia. In that sense, the Ukrainian crisis may escalate into Third World War with unpredictable global consequences, or nuclear catastrophe. However, regardless of its final outcome, the Ukrainian crises will fundamentally change the security framework of Europe and the relations between East and West. Actually, the Ukrainian war has only accelerated the change of the geopolitical landscape, which has been going through a deep transformation for a long time. Within the EU, NATO relies on its member countries contributing forces, meaning it may include traditionally neutral countries, as Sweden and Finland. Due to the intensified cooperation between Russia and China, the emerging New World Order is being born, and that world order will surely not rely on the American hegemony. The world order with dominant role of the Anglo-Saxons has suffered the dynamic loss and the time of power politics and the balance of power prevails again. In another words, the world is definitely realigning itself, and in its diplomacy, Russia has adapted to global power transition by making associations with different international actors. Overall, the actual Ukrainian crisis has not only brought radical shift in the existing world order and global geopolitical changes, but also a "global energy crisis of unprecedented depth and complexity," and collapse of today's Europe. Although for some countries Russia's invasion of Ukraine was the unexpected scenario of 2022 which has brought problems related to food and energy markets, recent events have shown that both American and the European economy have already been in relative decline. However, the true scope and depth of the Ukrainian crisis' global impact is only starting to become clear. So, we can conclude that nowadays, we face not only a crisis of enormous dimensions, but a new process of structural change whose end remains unknowable.

The Future of the Collective Security Treaty Organization in the Context of NATO Enlargement and the Kazakhstan Protests

1991 yılında Sovyetlerin dağılması ile Rusya, Bağımsız Devletler Topluluğu (BDT), Kolektif Güvenlik Antlaşması Örgütü (KGAÖ) gibi siyasi, askeri ve ekonomik oluşumlar yoluyla eski Sovyet coğrafyasında bağımsızlığını kazanan ülkeleri etki alanında tutmaya çalışmıştır. Bölgedeki nüfuzunu kaybetmenin küresel alandaki konumunu zayıflatacağını bilen Moskova, bu ülkelerin Batılı kurum ve kuruluşlarla entegre olmasını istememiştir. Nitekim son yıllarda Gürcistan ve Ukrayna’nın olası NATO üyeliklerine engel olmak için her türlü girişimde bulunulmuş ve en uzun sınırı paylaştığı Kazakistan’da yaşanan olaylara uzun yıllar etkinsizliği ile eleştirilen KGAÖ aracılığıyla müdahale etmiştir. 
 Rusya’nın Şubat 2022’de Ukrayna’yı işgalinden sonra Finlandiya ve İsveç, uzun yıllardır benimsedikleri askeri tarafsızlığı terk ederek NATO'ya üyelik başvurusu yapmayı kararlaştırmıştır. Bu kapsamda Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı yeni üyelikleri gündeme getirerek NATO’nun genişlemesine yönelik bir durum ortaya çıkarırken Orta Asya ve Kafkasya bölgesindeki gelişmeler benzer bir ihtimalin KGAÖ için de söz konusu olabileceğine işaret etmektedir. Öyle ki, NATO gibi açık kapı politikası uygulayan KGAÖ’ne zaman zaman İran’ın üye olacağına yönelik açıklamalar gündeme gelmektedir. Yine Avrasya Ekonomik Birliği’ne gözlemci üye olması sonrasında Özbekistan, 2021 yılında Rusya ile ikili bir askeri tatbikat ve Rusya ve Tacikistan ile üçlü bir askeri tatbikat gerçekleştirmiştir. Bunun yanında aynı yıl çevrimiçi formatta gerçekleştirilen KGAÖ toplantısına Özbekistan Cumhurbaşkanı Şövket Mirziyoyev konuk olarak katılmıştır. Kazakistan’da yaşanan olaylar nedeni ile gerçekleştirilen olağanüstü toplantıda Belarus Cumhurbaşkanı Aleksandr Lukaşenko’nun olayların Özbekistan’a sıçraması ihtimali olduğunu ifade etmesi ise Taşkent’in 2012 yılında askıya aldığı üyeliğini önümüzdeki günlerde yeniden aktifleştirebilir mi sorusunun ortaya çıkmasına neden olmuştur.
 Çalışmanın temel tezi NATO’nun genişlemesinin ve Kazakistan olaylarının KGAÖ’nün faaliyet alanlarını genişletebileceği ve yeni üyelikleri gündeme getirebileceğidir. Bu kapsamda çalışma Avrasya’nın NATO’su olarak addedilen KGAÖ’nün 30 yıllık serüvenine odaklanmaktadır. Çalışmada örgütün yapısı, işleyişi ve faaliyetleri üzerinde durulmuş ve özellikle son gelişmeler ışığında KGAÖ’nün etkinliği ve geleceği değerlendirilmiştir.

Intervensi Politik dan Militer Rusia Terhadap Ukraina Sebagai Wujud Penerapan Strategi Deterens

This study aims to determine the background of Russia's intervention in Ukraine through the approach of the concept of deterrence. To reveal this, this study uses a qualitative-explanatory method aimed at presenting a depth of analysis with the context of testing the hypothesis and the relevance of two variables. The results of the study reveal that the background of Russia's intervention in Ukraine is to respond to threats from the expansion of NATO's membership wing in Eastern Europe, especially Ukraine. In addition, Russia is also driven by the existence of Russian national interests in the territory of Ukraine and the Crimean Peninsula to secure its influence in Ukraine and reject the influence of the United States in Eastern Europe. Russia's intervention in Ukraine is seen as an effort to prevent Ukraine from joining the European Union. Russia is considered not to respect Ukraine's sovereignty over the act of annexing the Crimean peninsula in 2014 and the military invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The limitation of this research is that the data used is still limited to the type of secondary data, namely journals containing data on Russia's intervention against Ukraine.

PROBLEMS OF CONSTITUTIONAL LAW OF THE EUROPEAN UNION

PROBLEMS OF CONSTITUTIONAL LAW OF THE EUROPEAN UNION

Russia’s Evolving Military Strategy in Response to NATO Expansion: Continuity and Changes

This article analyses the changes and continuities in the Russian Military Strategy in response to NATO’s expansionist policies. The methodology used is interdisciplinary in nature as the discourse is based and conceptualized in the historical context with social insights into the contemporary development of events. The paper is divided into two sections: the first concerns NATO’s expansion, both during and after the Cold War period; and the second examines the proposed Russian Military Strategy in response to NATO’s increasing eastward expansion. It is concluded that Russia’s national security concepts and evolving expressions of military doctrine closely follow the process of NATO’s expansion. The nature of forward deployment, defense concept and military strategy that NATO adopts are decisive in formulating and influencing not only Kremlin’s perception but also its reaction, especially in the military field to alliance enlargement.

Not One Inch, Unless It Is from Lisbon to Vladivostok

Abstract A careful evaluation of recent history illustrates that the claim that US and NATO expansion threatens Moscow’s existence is an exaggeration. That Russia would inflate fears of NATO to pursue its global aspirations is understandable. What is less comprehensible is the degree to which influential Western thinkers, particularly on the anti-imperial US left, have promoted this narrative. This paper will examine the work of prominent US anti-imperial leftists who view the Russo-Ukrainian war through a US-centric lens, a conceptual framework that distorts the historical record. It will first document how these commentators’ explanatory models give outsized attention to US maneuvers, while neglecting regional fault lines, Russian irredentism and historical nuance. Consequently, many US anti-imperial leftists conclude that the US/NATO alliance is to blame for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This paper will explore Russia-NATO interactions and Moscow’s imperial discourse to demonstrate that the blame NATO stance obfuscates the historical record.

TENSIONS ON THE TOPIC OF HISTORY IN POLISH-UKRAINIAN RELATIONS AS A RESULT OF INFORMATION WARFARE

The article deals with today’s ethnic-cultural tensions and how they connect with the history of Poland and Ukraine and current diplomatic relations. The article overviews the problematic development of the current nationalist movement in Poland and its relationship with the “Center-Right” government, which was formed after the election of the President of the Republic of Poland Andrzej Duda. On the example of the closure of the Polish consulates in Ukraine after the 2017 incident with a grenade launcher in Lutsk, the author shows how a single hooligan attack in an atmosphere of ethnic tensions can lead to a total knock-out of the diplomatic system of the country. The research reveals the causes, parties and goals of the conflict, as well as subjects interested in ethnic tensions. It is shown how the problems of Polish- Ukrainian relations related to the secret change in the foreign policy course of the Republic of Poland in 2008 created a “synergy” with the growth of nationalist sentiment in Europe and the expansion of Russian influence. The link between the strengthening of nationalist movements and ethno-cultural conflicts in Europe (including the appeal of patriotic youth to their memory of historical conflicts) with the proliferation of pro-Russian and anti-globalist conspiracy propaganda in popular corners of the Internet, including those directed against the processes of European integration and NATO enlargement, have been shown in the research. The research suggests ways to prevent the escalation of conflict using the examples of both the diplomacy of the President of Ukraine and initiatives of representatives of civil society. The topic of Internet propaganda as a factor of ethnic tensions and rising political movements, as well as the distortion of history in such propaganda, is proposed by the author for future research.

When you want to dominate the Black Sea at any cost From the internationalization of the Straits to the "Red line"

The Black Sea region has been of great interest since Antiquity, not only for the riparians, but for any power that understood the importance of trade routes. The connection with the Mediterranean caused the importance of the Straits to arouse the interest of the powerful Empires of the time. The Black Sea has evolved from a “Turkish lake” to neutrality. The contemporary era brought the internationalization of the Straits but also the maximum interests of two of the riparians in controlling the region: Turkey and Russia. The importance of the area is similarly and selfishly valued. Turkey equates the Straits with national territory, and the Montreux Convention is the document on whose observance the balance of the area depends. Russia exhibits hegemonic tendencies and considers at least the eastern part of the Black Sea to be within its sphere of influence. The appearance of the North Atlantic Alliance, the acceptance of Turkey as its member, changed the balance of forces in the region. After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the expansion of NATO to the east, 3 of the 6 riparian countries are members of the Alliance. The Russian Federation consistently opposed enlargement and gradually drew an imaginary “red line” over which it was unwilling to cross: inviting Ukraine and Georgia to join the Alliance. Currently, neither Turkey nor the Russian Federation is happy about actions by third parties that would rob them of their “sovereignty”. While Turkey is belligerent to the intentions of anyone with a security initiative in the Black Sea (including NATO allies, even the United States), the Russian Federation considered that crossing the “red line” (bringing NATO closer to its borders through eventual accession of Ukraine) must be punished with war.

Kievan Rus: A Tumultuous Journey Ended With War

Russia’s “Special Military Operation” against Ukraine on 24 February 2022 can be counted as the biggest ever war in Europe since World War II. The rationale of the operation, as Russian President Vladimir Putin asserts, is that Russia even could not stay safe, prosper and survive with a NATO-leaning Ukraine. Nevertheless, the present-day war is a culmination of several factors which have set the stage for a more bitter outcome between Russia and Ukraine soon. The paper attempts at analysing how the present-day Russia-Ukraine war is a culmination of conflicting claims and interests of the two countries-Russia and Ukraine, starting from Kievan Rus, and how the west dragged Moscow into a deadly war with Kyiv. In the entire gamut of analysis, Ukraine’s intertwined history and the Russian claims, NATO expansion, resurgent Russia, and oscillating Ukrainian domestic politics hinged on east-west leanings, all together have been taken into account to unfold the current crisis in a wider spectrum.

러시아-우크라이나 전쟁과 나토: 쟁점과 여론

With the initiation of the Russia-Ukraine war, Putin presented the causes of the war as follows: 1) NATO expansion, 2) special relations between Russia-Ukraine, 3) protection of Russian residents in Donbas and denazification. Focusing on the first NATO expansion factor, this article comprehensively examines Putin’s arguments and their validity in the context of international politics, history, and social culture. In addtion, it analyzes the related perceptions of Russians and Ukrainians based on various polls. The result of the study reveals that Russia, which had expected to become a member of the European security community after the end of the Cold War, took a sincere attitude toward building constructive relations with NATO, even accepting NATO expansions. Putin

OBSERVATIONS AND DISCUSSIONS ON THE SECURITY CONCERNS DURING THE COLD WAR

After World War II (1939-1945) a bipolar world order emerged under the leaderships of the United States and the Soviet Union. The postwar period was later called as the Cold War Era that witnessed a great tension between the Western and Eastern blocs. Both sides abstained from a direct war and generally competed in such fields as military, political, economic, cultural, and so on. Although avoiding from military interventions was the main principle, the continuous hostility between two nuclear superpowers inevitably forced them to consider military options. In this point, security question became a vital subject between the United States and the Soviet Union, and deeply influenced the shaping of characteristics of two powers’ relations. It was foreseen that the security concerns based on nuclear threat would come to an end with the collapse of the Soviet Union and with the end of the Cold War. However, the expansion of NATO to the Eastern Europe and Baltic region, and possibility of new member’s admission to NATO, including Ukraine, in one hand, Russia’s efforts to be a superpower in the world politics, on the other hand, revealed that the security concerns have not completely disappeared with the end of the Cold War. Thus, revisiting some discussions on the security concerns during the Cold War, and bringing them to the attention of academic world would be stimulating. This article will focus on some fundamental discussions on the security concerns during the Cold War. Firstly, the formation of the US national security understanding, and the role of National Security Council Report 68 (NSC-68) in shaping of the US security concept during the Cold War will be explained. Secondly, the role of nuclear deterrence in the establishment of national security concept will be discussed. Finally, the concept of ‘security dilemma’ and the opinions of Robert Jervis on security dilemma will be evaluated.

Russia vs. Ukraine War: India's stance

On February 24, Russian troops came into Ukraine from Belarus in the north, Crimea in the south, and the east. Multiple lines of attack suggested that the Russian military wanted to quickly take the capital, Kyiv, overthrow the democratically elected government, and take over as much as the eastern two-thirds of Ukraine. Since the war started on February 24, Russia has been wrong about four things: that the Ukrainian government would fall and Russian forces would quickly take Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities; that the European Union would struggle to show resolve and respond to this aggression; that the "Western world" would react in a split and uncertain way; and that the rest of the world would not condemn Russia's invasion. Russia has been building up its military along its border with Ukraine, which wants to join NATO. Russia has said that its deployment of troops is a response to the steady expansion of NATO to the east. Russia says that it is doing these things to protect its own security. The stance that India has taken on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is being applauded everywhere therefore, the study highlighted and analysed the India’s stand on Russia – Ukraine war by adopting descriptive cum analytical method to reach on conclusion also the study utilised extensively thematic analytical tool MAXQDA for qualitative investigation to explain and analyse the India’s stand on Russia – Ukraine war.