Engle Granger Research Articles

ANALISIS TINGKAT PARTISIPASI WANITA DALAM ANGKATAN KERJA DI JAWA TENGAH PERIODE TAHUN 1982-2000

At industrialization phase, women will be shifted by men because the increasing of unemployment. When economic development reaches a certain stage, the trend of development turned with increasing women employment. Purpose of the research that will be reached is to estimate influence of women unemployment, women resident that managing household, and women residents that still school on the level of women participation in the labor force in Central Java (1982-2000). This study clarifies the factors that influence the level of participation of women in the labor force and improve the existence theory of the labor force participation rate. One way to analyze the effect of short-run and long run is to use a dynamic model. In this research model used is the Engle Granger Error Correction Models (EG-ECM) which based on "granger representation theorem". The result knows the variable having influence which significance in short-run are women resident that managing household and women resident that still school.

Forecasting agricultural exports and imports in South Africa

The implementation of wide-ranging policy reforms, including trade and exchange rate policies, is improving the efficiency of the South African economy and its reintegration into the global economy with rapid export expansion. Agricultural exports in the Southern African Customs Union increased from R8.14 billion in 1995 to R23.0 billion in 2003, whilst agricultural imports rose from R6.83 billion to R13.84 billion during the same period. This article uses alternative approaches to forecasting agricultural exports and imports in South Africa. The models used include: exponential smoothing, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), vector autoregression (VAR), Engle–Granger (EG) single-equation and vector error-correction models (VECM). We found that the ARIMA and EG methods outperform the VAR and VECM according to Theil's U-statistic. The VAR outperforms the VECM in forecasting agricultural exports in South Africa. The combined forecasts have a lower variance compared to individual forecasts, thereby, reducing the risks of making wrong decisions based on the forecasts. The article provides empirical evidence that is beneficial to policymakers and business leaders in South Africa as they strive to reduce poverty and inequality and increase economic growth.

ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI INVESTASI DALAM NEGERI DI JAWA TENGAH TAHUN 1980-2002

Investment is one of important component for sustainable economic development process. The research objective that want achieved is to estimate influence of labour, inflation, PDRB, and interest rate to domestic investment (PMDN) in Central Java. The research benefit was to clarify factors that influenced domestic investment and gave insight and input for local government in formulating economy policy.One of method for analysing long-run and short run influence was by using dynamic model. In this research, model which applied was ENGLE GRANGER ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (EG-ECM) based on granger representation theoremResult of this research indicated that domestic investment one year ago was variable which influenced significantly in short run while rate of interest influenced in long run.

Empirical study on the influence of RMB exchange rate misalignment on China’s export

Using data from 1978–2005, this paper estimates RMB equilibrium exchange rate and misalignment respectively, and uses Engle-Granger (E-G) two-step method, error correction model to analyze the influence of RMB exchange rate misalignment on China’s export. Because China is the economic transitional country with the character of dualistic economic structure, this paper introduces a control variant into the model which is the gap between agriculture and industry contribution to GDP. Conclusion shows that this model is more credible and stable. There is an obvious cointegration between China’s export and RMB exchange rate misalignment, real effective exchange rate, domestic GDP and foreign weighted average GDP. RMB exchange rate misalignment has an obvious negative influence on China’s export, but it has self-corrected dynamic mechanism. Then using binary Logit model, this paper concludes that the bigger RMB underestimated misalignment is, the bigger net export probability is, which is good for export. The bigger RMB overestimated misalignment is, the smaller net export probability is, which is bad for export.