Aerospace engine gear steel, 15Cr14Co12Mo5Ni2W steel, requires carburizing heat treatment to achieve operational performance. However, predicting the carbon concentration during the vacuum carburizing process poses significant challenges. This paper aims to design and establish a predictive model for the carbon concentration during the vacuum carburizing process of 15Cr14Co12Mo5Ni2W steel. Given the complex phase transformations during the vacuum carburizing process caused by the ultra-high alloy content of 15Cr14Co12Mo5Ni2W steel, vacuum short-term intense carburization and diffusion experiments were designed. Characterization methods such as XRD, scanning electron microscopy, electron probe microanalysis, EBSD, and FIB+TEM were used to study the microstructure, phase composition, phase constituents, and distribution of element concentrations during the vacuum carburizing process. Subsequently, a carbon concentration distribution calculation model considering carbide changes during the vacuum carburizing process of 15Cr14Co12Mo5Ni2W steel was established. Boundary conditions for carbon absorption during the intense carburization process of 15Cr14Co12Mo5Ni2W steel were proposed, and the relationship between surface carbon concentration and boundary conditions was determined through experiments. Using the method of forward calculation with least squares fitting of experimental data, the diffusion coefficient of carbon in the austenite of 15Cr14Co12Mo5Ni2W steel and the rate of carbon exchange between carbides and the matrix were derived, providing a more precise predictive tool for optimizing the vacuum carburizing process of 15Cr14Co12Mo5Ni2W steel.
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