European Energy System Research Articles

Hydrogen Infrastructure in the Future CO2‐Neutral European Energy System—How Does the Demand for Hydrogen Affect the Need for Infrastructure?

The fast rollout of hydrogen generation, transport, and storage infrastructure has become a top priority of the European Union and its member states. Planning hydrogen infrastructure requires a thorough understanding of the future role of hydrogen in the energy system. At the same time, there is still huge uncertainty about the future demand for hydrogen and its overall role. An energy systems analysis is conducted with high temporal and spatial as well as technological resolution under alternative demand scenarios. An energy system model is used to optimize the entire European energy system with hourly time resolution and high spatial consideration of renewable energy potentials. The hydrogen demand in the five scenarios ranges from about 700 TWh for mainly industrial uses to 2800 TWh in all sectors in the EU27 + UK by 2050. The results show that an integrated European hydrogen system is a robust element of the cost‐optimal system design in all scenarios. This encompasses flexible electrolyzers at the most favorable wind and solar locations, long‐distance hydrogen transport network, large‐scale seasonal underground storage, and electricity generation for peak demand periods. Conclusions about the individual components are provided and high‐resolution data on hydrogen demand are available for future research.

How wind forecast updates are balanced in coupled European intraday markets

AbstractThe market coupling of adjacent market zones is a key element in terms of coping with rising levels of uncertainty in the European energy system due to the adoption of more volatile renewable energy sources. An adequate analysis of this issue yet requires an appropriate consideration of uncertainty along with a detailed modelling of market coupling. Thus, we present a novel approach combining a comprehensive unit commitment and dispatch model with a sophisticated methodology to reflect the uncertainty of wind power generation by considering forecast updates for the German market region in the market clearing process. Subsequently, we investigate the impact of uncertainty on cross‐border electricity flows in a European case study. Our results show that all adjacent market zones and all relevant technologies significantly contribute to balancing forecast updates in Germany, underlining the benefits of intraday market coupling. Further, we observe that a joint and unrestricted intraday market is the most cost‐efficient market solution. Finally, our analyses show that more extensive market coupling is indispensable for the further integration of renewable energy sources in the future.

Integrating district heating potentials into European energy system modelling: An assessment of cost advantages of renewable and excess heat

This paper takes a novel modelling approach by considering high spatial resolution heat generation potentials for district heating and integrating them into a European energy system model. Subsequently, a modelling analysis of an integrated energy system including district heating, electricity and hydrogen supply for 25 EU Member States and the year 2050 is carried out. In contrast to existing approaches, the modelling approach captures the heterogeneous resource availability in district heating. The results show multivalent district heating networks based on a wide range of renewable and excess heat sources used directly or in combination with large-scale heat pumps. The high spatial resolution of the heat generation potentials allows a detailed cost comparison of different possible future technology mixes in district heating. The paper finds that the use of heat pumps, geothermal energy and industrial excess heat offer slight cost advantages for the energy system as a whole. Geothermal heat can also provide cost advantages for district heating generation.

The management of an energy system in the realm of rapid energy transition and degasification as a consequence of energy crisis, examination in H2RES energy model

The energy system in Europe faces significant challenges. Though, the transition to renewable energy is under way, still a significant portion of energy is supplied from fossil fuels, mainly natural gas. In the second half of 2021, the supply of natural gas and consequently the rate of replenishment of the reserves dwindled. The scarcity of natural gas has resulted in record-high energy prices as well as an increase in goods prices. Especially hit are the industry sectors highly dependent on natural gas such as the petrochemical industry.This research investigates the strategies to mitigate the crisis in the European Union energy system while simultaneously ensuring low energy system cost and fulfilment of energy transition goals. The system analysis and simulations are carried out in the liner optimization model − H2RES.The results display that the system opts for accelerated fulfilment of energy transition goals. Therefore, the dependency on the stable supply of natural gas is decreased. Also, the total cost of an energy system that undergoes transition as compared to the business as usual scenario is 33 % lower even when accounting for the necessary investments by 2050.

Surrogate-based modeling and sensitivity analysis of future European electricity spot market prices

Europe is transitioning towards a sustainable energy economy. Planning these future power and energy systems is multifaceted and complex, requiring long-term projections of future electricity market dynamics. The prognostication of future prices is crucial for power system planning, as these prices will drive investments and impact incentives to build and improve new systems. The price of electricity in different regions impacts transmission investment. Energy systems models have high-dimensional output and are expensive to evaluate, leading to unique challenges in managing the uncertainty in model assumptions. This study presents a novel methodology for determining which cost assumptions are most impactful on the output of a detailed model of the European energy system. Because this model is computationally intensive, only a small number of samples are available to us. A multiple-output support vector regression is used as a surrogate of predicted electricity prices timeseries. We find that solar and wind costs are the primary drivers of electricity prices, but natural gas costs generally drive peak electricity prices and those far in the future.

EU Energy Securitisation: Ukraine's Place in the European Energy System

This article focuses on the investigation of the European Union's securitisation policy in the energy sector, in particular, the provision of energy carriers to the Union, which was developed in response to Russia's energy wars of 2006–2007 and 2008–2009 against Ukraine and indirectly against the European Union. The theory of securitisation, formulated by S. Ozkan, B. Buzan and other researchers, focuses not so much on eliminating the consequences of crises as on creating a system of securitisation for the relevant industries with increased stress resistance, diversification of economic and technological ties with partners and strengthening the social orientation of their functioning. The algorithmization of this policy and the changes that led to the institutional response to Russian aggression in the energy sector are investigated. The research is based on the approach of sociological (neo)institutionalism, which allows explaining political processes in terms of not only economic benefits, but also their importance for the development of other spheres of public life and international cooperation. This approach is based on the notion that, first, the institutional environment in which a particular institution operates provides it with the necessary resources, as well as legitimates and regulates its activities. As a result, sociological institutionalism emphasises the role of norms, rules, and culture, influencing the self-identification of actors associated with this institution, as well as defining „friends” and „foes” in the overall institutional structure. It is shown that changes in the EU energy policy are dictated not only by economic or technological considerations, but also by the requirement to meet the needs of the population and economy of the EU member states. At the same time, Ukraine's inclusion in the EU's common securitisation system is in the economic, political, and social interests of Ukraine, which, both under the Association Agreement and in the event of its accession to the EU, will have the status of an acceptor country. The article considers possible options for the EU and Ukraine to establish Ukraine as the EU's eastern securitizer and their respective consequences for both parties.

Econometric Analysis of the Influence of Factors on the Share of Energy From Renewable Sources in the EU

The use of renewable energy is at the core of EU energy policy, reducing dependence on fossil fuels imported from non-EU countries, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and decoupling energy costs from oil prices. Currently, 22.5% of energy consumed in the EU comes from renewable sources. This increase over 2021 is due to strong growth in solar energy. This share is also increasing due to the consumption of non-renewable energy sources in 2022. According to expert forecasts, the share of renewable energy sources in Europe will continue to grow. Achieving the 42.5% target by 2030 will require a deep transformation of the European energy system. The very strong climate and energy policies pursued in the EU for about a dozen years and aimed at limiting emissions of harmful substances into the environment have led to a gradual abandonment of traditional energy sources. Increasing demand for energy while reducing its supply from traditional sources means that in order not to make the economy too dependent on energy imports, the dynamic development of renewable energy is necessary. The EU is therefore taking very extensive operational and strategic actions to use other sources for production, such as wind, solar energy, mechanical water energy, biomass and geothermal energy, as well as tidal waves, ocean heat, wave energy and sea currents. In this study, we assess the impact of energy, economic and environmental factors on the share of renewable energy in the EU. The aim of these studies was to identify the energy, economic and environmental indicators that have the greatest impact on the share of energy from renewable sources in the European Union. The study was conducted using the Statgraphics Centurion software package. The source data for the study was data from the official Eurostat website for the period from 2012 to 2022. The results of this study show that changes in gross domestic product in market prices per capita have a positive impact, as do changes in greenhouse gas emissions per capita negatively affect the share of energy from renewable sources in the EU in the period 2012-2022. This may most likely be due to the fact that EU countries are more likely to invest in renewable energy as they can afford to invest in the development of expensive renewable energy technologies and support subsidies for the promotion and regulation of renewable energy. The negative impact of per capita greenhouse gas emissions on renewable energy development is due to the high share of coal in the EU energy mix, meaning that coal not only has negative environmental impacts, but also negative environmental impacts. development of renewable energy.

Perception towards reducing natural gas consumption and imports in Europe: A theoretical and empirical investigation

The European energy system is undergoing a drastic change, focusing on reducing natural gas consumption and import. European households, which are responsible for 25 % of final energy consumption, mainly based on natural gas, could play a significant role in such a transition. Therefore, the study aims to understand the perception towards natural gas consumption reduction and imports. An online questionnaire was designed based on an extended version of the theory of planned behaviour, which 257 highly educated respondents filled out. The results delineated the respondents' positive perception of reducing natural gas consumption. Specific attributes (i.e., environmental concerns, national sustainable and efficient energy system, and national energy independence) and personal moral norms (i.e., moral responsibility) significantly impact the willingness and effort to reduce natural gas consumption. The lack of control is the largest perceived control behaviour in reducing the respondents' natural gas consumption compared to available knowledge and affordability. Finally, the respondents care significantly and want to know about natural gas import sources, and they are highly against natural gas imports from Russia, the United States, the Middle Eastern, and Arab countries. Based on the insights, the study provides detailed recommendations. The study provides concrete recommendations for policy-makers to include environmental, humanitarian and energy-independence concerns in their decision-making processes related to natural gas imports and consumption. It also emphasises informing and involving individual households in such decision-making processes.

Environmental and climate impacts of a large-scale deployment of green hydrogen in Europe

Green hydrogen is expected to play a vital role in decarbonizing the energy system in Europe. However, large-scale deployment of green hydrogen has associated potential trade-offs in terms of climate and other environmental impacts. This study aims to shed light on a comprehensive sustainability assessment of this large-scale green hydrogen deployment based on the EMPIRE energy system modeling, compared with other decarbonization paths. Process-based Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is applied and connected with the output of the energy system model, revealing 45% extra climate impact caused by the dedicated 50% extra renewable infrastructure to deliver green hydrogen for the demand in the sectors of industry and transport in Europe towards 2050. Whereas, the analysis shows that green hydrogen eventually wins on the climate impact within four designed scenarios (with green hydrogen, with blue hydrogen, without green hydrogen, and baseline), mainly compensated by its clean usage and renewable electricity supply. On the other hand, green hydrogen has a lower performance in other environmental impacts including human toxicity, ecotoxicity, mineral use, land use, and water depletion. Furthermore, a monetary valuation of Life Cycle Impact (LCI) is estimated to aggregate 13 categories of environmental impacts between different technologies. Results indicate that the total monetized LCI cost of green hydrogen production is relatively lower than that of blue hydrogen. In overview, a large-scale green hydrogen deployment potentially shifts the environmental pressure from climate and fossil resource use to human health, mineral resource use, and ecosystem damage due to its higher material consumption of the infrastructure.

Climate neutrality in European heavy-duty road transport: How to decarbonise trucks and buses in less than 30 years?

The decarbonisation of heavy-duty road transport is subject to many uncertainties regarding fuel choices and the role of efficiency and demand-side measures. Moreover, the various segments of heavy-duty road transport exhibit distinctive characteristics, posing challenges in identifying a one-size-fits-all solution. In a scenario-based analysis with coupled modelling of the European energy system and its endogenous transport demand (driver training, improved logistics and collective mobility) we study the decarbonisation of European heavy-duty road transport through 2050, with a granular representation of its segments in the modelling exercise. Our modelling results show that battery electric vehicles are the key enablers of climate neutrality, representing 60 %–89 % of trucks and 79 %–96 % of buses by 2050. Yet, this important level of electrification, in a climate-neutral Europe, represent at most 4 % (320 TWh) of final electricity consumption. While shifting to electric and hydrogen vehicles brings significant fuel savings (41 %–66 %) and emission reductions (33 %–60 % cumulatively), demand-side operational measures can quickly and cost-effectively complement fuel switching, bringing up to 50 % of cumulative emission savings. The modelling results are highly sensitive to policy assumptions, especially regarding those related to the role of clean hydrogen. This calls for long-term planning with stable and clear signalling of technology choices.

Integration assessment of turquoise hydrogen in the European energy sector

Turquoise hydrogen from natural gas pyrolysis has recently emerged as a promising alternative for low-carbon hydrogen production with a high-value pure carbon by-product. However, the implications of this technology on the broader energy system are not well understood at present. To close this literature gap, this study presents an assessment of the integration of natural gas pyrolysis into a simplified European energy system. The energy system model minimizes the cost by optimizing investment and hourly dispatch of a broad range of electricity and fuel production, transmission, and storage technologies, as well as imports/exports on the global market. Norway is included as a major natural gas producer, and Germany as a major energy importer. Results reveal that pyrolysis is economically attractive at modest market shares where the carbon by-product can be sold into high-value markets for 400 €/ton. However, pyrolysis-dominated scenarios that employ methane as a hydrogen carrier also hold promise as they facilitate deep decarbonization without the need for vast expansions of international electricity, hydrogen, and CO2 transmission networks. The simplicity and security benefits of such pyrolysis-led decarbonization pathways justify the modest 11 % cost premium involved for an energy system where natural gas is the only energy trade vector. In conclusion, there is a strong case for turquoise hydrogen in future energy systems and further efforts for commercialization of natural gas pyrolysis are recommended.

Assessing the probability of extremely low wind energy production in Europe at sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales

The European energy system will undergo major transformations in the coming decades to implement mitigation measures and comply with the Paris Agreement. In particular, the share of weather-dependent wind generation will increase significantly in the European energy mix. The most extreme fluctuations of the production at all time scales need to be taken into account in the design of the power system. In particular, extreme long-lasting low wind energy production events constitute a specific challenge, as most flexibility solutions do not apply at time scales beyond a few days. However, the probability and amplitude of such events has to a large extent eluded quantitative study so far due to lack of sufficiently long data. In this letter, using a 1000-year climate simulation, we study rare events of wind energy production that last from a few weeks to a few months over the January–February period, at the scale of a continent (Europe) and a country (France). The results show that the fluctuations of the capacity factor over Europe exhibit nearly Gaussian statistics at all time scales. A similar result holds over France for events longer than about two weeks and return times up to a few decades. In that case, the return time curves follow a universal curve. Furthermore, a simple Gaussian process with the same covariance structure as the data gives good estimates of the amplitude of the most extreme events. This method allows to estimate return times for rare events from shorter but more accurate data sources. We demonstrate this possibility with reanalysis data.

Aboveground hydrogen storage – Assessment of the potential market relevance in a Carbon-Neutral European energy system

Hydrogen storage is expected to play a crucial role in the comprehensive defossilization of energy systems. In this context, the focus is typically on underground hydrogen storage (e.g., in salt caverns). However, aboveground storage, which is independent of geological conditions and might offer other technical advantages, could provide systemic benefits and, thereby, gain shares in the hydrogen storage market. Against this background, this paper examines the market relevance of aboveground compared to underground hydrogen storage. Using the open-source energy system model and optimization framework of Europe, PyPSA-Eur, the influence of geological independence, storage cost relations, and technical storage characteristics (i.e., efficiencies) on mentioned market relevance of aboveground hydrogen storage are investigated. Further, the expectable market relevance based on current cost projections for the future is assessed. The studies show that in terms of hydrogen capacities, aboveground hydrogen storage plays a considerably smaller role compared to underground hydrogen storage. Even when assuming comparatively low aboveground storage cost, it will not exceed 1.7% (1.9TWhH2,LHV) of total hydrogen storage capacities in a cost-optimal European energy system. Regarding the amounts of annually stored hydrogen, aboveground storage could play a larger role, reaching a maximum share of 32.5% (168TWhH2,LHVa-1) of total stored hydrogen throughout Europe. However, these shares are only achievable for low cost storage in particularly suited energy system supply configurations. For higher aboveground storage costs or lower efficiencies, shares drop below 10% sharply. The analysis identifies some especially influential factors for achieving higher market relevance. Besides storage costs, the demand-orientation of a particular aboveground storage system (e.g., hydrogen storage at demand pressure levels) plays an essential role in market relevance. Further, overall efficiency can be a beneficial factor. Still, current projections of future techno-economic characteristics show that aboveground hydrogen storage is too expensive or too inefficient compared to underground storage. Therefore, to achieve notable market relevance, rather drastic cost reductions beyond current expectations would be needed for all assessed aboveground hydrogen storage technologies.

Approaches to a New Regional Energy Security Model in the Perspective of the European Transition to Green Energy

The EU energy sector became a very important one as a result of the war in Ukraine. On the other hand, the EU started in defining and implementing new strategies regarding green economy and sustainability. Even though these strategies cover short and medium periods, they have as a main goal the decrease in the EU’s dependence of energy imports. This research is focused on present challenges, risks, and uncertainties related to energy production and consumption in all EU member states. In order to achieve the research objectives, a huge statistical database, which covered 2012–2021, was used. The analysis is based on specific indicators regarding primary energy production; imports and exports; gross available energy; final energy consumption; non-energy consumption; energy dependency; and energy intensity. There are at least three research procedures used in this paper: a meta-analysis, a statistical analysis, and an econometric analysis, as well. Finally, the analysis points out the disparities between member states regarding energetic resources and energy dependency using a new model for quantifying risk factors in the European energy system. Moreover, new public policies are proposed by the authors under a cluster approach of the EU’s regions.

Europe’s independence from Russian natural gas — Effects of import restrictions on energy system development

With the Russian invasion on Ukraine in 2022 and the following disruption of Russian natural gas imports, Europe’s energy reliance on Russia has become more apparent than ever. To tackle the resulting challenges of a limited supply of fossil fuels from Russia and especially its effects on energy system development, short and long-term effects need to be investigated thoroughly. This paper aims to quantitatively analyze the impact of reduced natural gas availability from Russia on the European energy system, both in the coming years, as well as in the future. Using the Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD), three scenarios with varying amounts of Russian natural gas and further impacts of reduced fossil fuel imports from Russia are calculated. Results show that strong effects are mostly observed in the short to medium-term, but an overall earlier phase-out of fossil fuels can be achieved in the long-term. The reduction of natural gas imports is tackled by an increase in LNG imports and domestic natural gas production to overcome the supply gap. Strong reactions are seen in the levelized costs of electricity generation between 2022 and 2025, with higher costs in scenarios with restrictions on Russian natural gas imports, but with a negligible difference in the long-term. Most importantly, lower emissions in scenarios with reduced natural gas supply from Russia highlight the positive effect of an early reduction in fossil fuels and investment in renewable technologies, resulting in a near 100% emission-free energy system by 2045, 5 years before the Base scenario with unrestricted Russian gas imports. The results find that a limitation of Russian fossil imports does not pose a long-term threat to the European energy system or its required transition away from fossil fuels, but can rather accelerate its decarbonization and energy demand reductions.

Modelling flexibility requirements in deep decarbonisation scenarios: The role of conventional flexibility and sector coupling options in the European 2050 energy system

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has reaffirmed the importance of scaling up renewable energy to decarbonise Europe's economy while rapidly reducing its exposure to foreign fossil fuel suppliers. Therefore, the question of sources of flexibility to support a fully decarbonised European energy system is becoming even more critical in light of a renewable-dominated energy system. We developed and used a Pan-European energy system model to systematically assess and quantify sources of flexibility to meet deep decarbonisation targets. The electricity supply sector and electricity-based end-use technologies are crucial in achieving deep decarbonisation. Other low-carbon energy sources like biomethane, hydrogen, synthetic e-fuels, and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage will also play a role. To support a fully decarbonised European energy system by 2050, both temporal and spatial flexibility will be needed. Spatial flexibility, achieved through investments in national electricity networks and cross-border interconnections, is crucial to support the aggressive roll-out of variable renewable energy sources. Cross-border trade in electricity is expected to increase, and in deep decarbonisation scenarios, the electricity transmission capacity will be larger than that of natural gas. Hydrogen storage and green hydrogen production will play a key role in providing traditional inter-seasonal flexibility, and intraday flexibility will be provided by a combination of electrical energy storage, hydrogen-based storage solutions (e.g., liquid H2 and pressurised storage), and hybrid heat pumps. Hydrogen networks and storage will become more critical as we move towards the highest decarbonisation scenario. Still, the need for natural gas networks and storage will decrease substantially.

Economy-wide impacts of socio-politically driven net-zero energy systems in europe

Net-zero energy system configurations can be met in numerous ways, implying diverse economic effects. However, what is usually ignored in techno-economic and economy-wide analysis are the distinct social-political drivers and barriers, which might constrain certain elements of future energy systems. We thus apply a model ensemble that defines social-political storylines which constrain feasible net-zero configurations of the European energy system. Using these configurations in a macroeconomic general equilibrium model allows us to explore economy-wide effects and ultimately the cost-effectiveness of different systems. We find that social-political storylines provide valuable boundary conditions for feasible net-zero designs of the energy system and that the costliest energy sector configuration in fact leads to the highest European-wide welfare levels. This result originates in indirect effects, particularly positive employment effects, covered by the macroeconomic model. However, adverse public budget effects on the transition to net-zero energy may limit the willingness of policymakers who focus on shorter time-horizons to foster such a development. Our results highlight the relevance of considering the interaction of energy system-changes with labor, emission allowance and capital markets, as well as considering long-term perspectives.

Analysis of Energy Systems in Europe: The Case of Wind Energy in Spain

The world energy demand is increased each year so it is important to analyze how this demand is covered. As a consequence, it is imperative to accommodate the different frameworks to make that happen. Wind energy has proved itself as a generation source in which countries can rely on, so to simultaneously solve the dilemma of this type of generation resources, technology and policy-, the renewable energy sector should be studied. The aim of this work is to analyse situation of wind energy in one of the main countries in the European Union within this type of generation: Spain. A brief analysis of the current situation is made, accounting the importance of wind energy in the electric generation and future plans. Moreover, the evolution of the legislative frameworks is studied with the aim of figuring out if there is a relation between them and the changes in the annual installed powe concluded that Spain has an extraordinary renewable resource but planning, predictability and legal framework are needed to achieve a more sustainable energy model

Modeling insights from the Austrian national gas grid under declining natural gas demand and increasing domestic renewable gas generation by 2040

This paper studies the development of the Austrian gas grid by 2040 under different decarbonization scenarios, ranging from electrifying most energy services to importing large amounts of renewable methane. The Austrian gas grid serves as a case study representative for those gas grids confronted with a drop in natural gas demand and an increase in domestic renewable gas generation in the future. A mixed-integer optimization model with a focus on the detailed representation of the existing grid (gas grid levels, pipeline capacity, route, and age) is used to determine the cost-optimal trade-off decision between expected low-utilized gas pipelines and an off-grid supply alternative (e.g., trucking and on-site gas storage) in a decarbonized Austrian and European energy system. Optimality determines whether to operate, decommission, or make replacement investments in the grid’s pipelines. Based on the required gas grid 2040 and its annual grid costs, estimates for tariffs of end customers are given. The paper’s main conclusion is that the domestic distributed renewable gas generation uptake will be associated with the need for an area-wide gas grid, but one that will be significantly less utilized. Future work could address, among other things, the exploration of the spatial interplay of local production and demand by forming regional clusters of renewable gas.

On the future relevance of green hydrogen in Europe

Hydrogen is among the energy carriers, which are most often considered for bringing about a sustainable energy system. Yet, so far, hydrogen has not delivered as an energy carrier. The core objective of this paper is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the state-of-the-art and the future prospects of green hydrogen in the European energy system from economic, energetic and CO2 emissions point-of-view. The analysis shows that there are some increasing opportunities for hydrogen use in industry and in the transport sector, when electrification is not possible or is too expensive, as well as a storage in the European electricity system. However, a hydrogen-based energy system will remain a vision at least over the next decades. The major reason for this is the unfavorable economics mostly due to high investment costs in the whole supply chain. In addition, the overall efficiencies in the hydrogen chains are moderate in general. The full environmental benignity of hydrogen as an energy carrier is only provided when renewable energy sources are used for hydrogen production. However, in Europe, the potentials for green hydrogen are very limited due to the insufficient expansion of renewable electricity generation. For this reason, many European countries are considering options for green hydrogen import. The future of hydrogen is highly dependent on the supporting policy framework. To reduce the risk in the investment in hydrogen infrastructure, as well as to justify the promotion of green hydrogen, it is very important that Europe works out a very clear and realistic long-term implementation strategy.