Abstract
The decarbonisation of heavy-duty road transport is subject to many uncertainties regarding fuel choices and the role of efficiency and demand-side measures. Moreover, the various segments of heavy-duty road transport exhibit distinctive characteristics, posing challenges in identifying a one-size-fits-all solution. In a scenario-based analysis with coupled modelling of the European energy system and its endogenous transport demand (driver training, improved logistics and collective mobility) we study the decarbonisation of European heavy-duty road transport through 2050, with a granular representation of its segments in the modelling exercise. Our modelling results show that battery electric vehicles are the key enablers of climate neutrality, representing 60 %–89 % of trucks and 79 %–96 % of buses by 2050. Yet, this important level of electrification, in a climate-neutral Europe, represent at most 4 % (320 TWh) of final electricity consumption. While shifting to electric and hydrogen vehicles brings significant fuel savings (41 %–66 %) and emission reductions (33 %–60 % cumulatively), demand-side operational measures can quickly and cost-effectively complement fuel switching, bringing up to 50 % of cumulative emission savings. The modelling results are highly sensitive to policy assumptions, especially regarding those related to the role of clean hydrogen. This calls for long-term planning with stable and clear signalling of technology choices.
Published Version
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