Energy Supply Scenarios Research Articles

A sustainable energy future: Construction of demand and renewable energy supply scenarios

The creation of energy scenarios, usually describing future situations of interest, involves three steps: (1) Determining the activities in the target society that involves energy of one or another form. Examples of carrying out such an analysis are presented, with end-use demands distributed on energy forms (qualities) as the deliverable outcome. (2) Determining the available energy resources in the society in question. This is done for renewable energy resources and presented as potential energy supply, with a discussion of the aggressivity of exploiting such sources. Finally (3) Matching demand and supply under consideration of the energy forms needed, with the use of intermediate conversions, storage and transmission and signalling unused surpluses that may be exported from the society in consideration, or deficits that have to be imported. An example of such a matching is presented in an accompanying article. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The 2 °C scenario—A sustainable world energy perspective

A target-oriented scenario of future energy demand and supply is developed in a backcasting process. The main target is to reduce global CO 2 emissions to around 10 Gt/a in 2050, thus limiting global average temperature increase to 2 °C and preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. A 10-region energy system model is used for simulating global energy supply strategies. A review of sector and region-specific energy efficiency measures resulted in the specification of a global energy demand scenario incorporating strong energy efficiency measures. The corresponding supply scenario has been developed in an iterative process in close cooperation with stakeholders and regional counterparts from academia, NGOs and the renewable energy industry. The 2 °C scenario shows that renewable energy could provide as much as half of the world's energy needs by 2050. Developing countries can virtually stabilise their CO 2 emissions, while at the same time increasing energy consumption through economic growth. OECD countries will be able to reduce their emissions by up to 80%.

Renewable energy in the United States

A review of studies of biomass potential in the United States finds a wide variation in the estimates. A number of specific policy-relevant questions about the potential of biofuels in the United States are answered. A recently published global analysis of the potential conflict between land needed for bioenergy and land needed for food is extended to the situation in the United States. A renewable energy supply scenario, capable of meeting the 2001 US energy demand, indicates that there is enough land to support a renewable energy system but that the utilization of biomass would be limited by its land requirement.

Potential of solar electricity generation in the European Union member states and candidate countries

During the years 2001–2005, a European solar radiation database was developed using a solar radiation model and climatic data integrated within the Photovoltaic Geographic Information System (PVGIS). The database, with a resolution of 1 km × 1 km, consists of monthly and yearly averages of global irradiation and related climatic parameters, representing the period 1981–1990. The database has been used to analyse regional and national differences of solar energy resource and to assess the photovoltaic (PV) potential in the 25 European Union member states and 5 candidate countries. The calculation of electricity generation potential by contemporary PV technology is a basic step in analysing scenarios for the future energy supply and for a rational implementation of legal and financial frameworks to support the developing industrial production of PV. Three aspects are explored within this paper: (1) the expected average annual electricity generation of a ‘standard’ 1 kW p grid-connected PV system; (2) the theoretical potential of PV electricity generation; (3) determination of required installed capacity for each country to supply 1% of the national electricity consumption from PV. The analysis shows that PV can already provide a significant contribution to a mixed renewable energy portfolio in the present and future European Union.

Wakening the serpent: reflections on the possible modification of the Euratom Treaty

Directives acquired in the framework of the Kyoto Protocol and the fact that the nuclear energy production does not generate carbon dioxide, might point to a recovery by the nuclear energy industry, which would be possible only within a more or less lengthy process of social confrontation in the Member States. While new scenarios for the European energy supply are being configured, the nuclear energy option remains open in many countries. Meanwhile, the Treaty establishing the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom) remains in force without having undergone any substantial change, as it was drawn up, many of its provisions being in a sense latent or awaiting an eventual decision regarding the use. This paper describes certain attempts made to reform the Euratom Treaty and the reasons for which they failed.

Applications and Markets for Solid Oxide Regenerative Fuel Cells

To avoid the approaching oil infrastructure crisis, alternate energy supply scenarios and energy use patterns will have to be embraced. Fuel cells will undoubtedly play a major role in such a change. Regenerative Fuel Cells (RFCs) coupled to renewables could be one of the technologies having an impact in easing the approaching energy supply difficulties. RFCs have been researched for ∼50 years but are not yet found in the marketplace. There are multiple reasons for lack of market penetration, including: economic, efficiency, and durability. Solid Oxide Regenerative Fuel Cell (SORFC) test results to date, combined with volume cost projections for solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs), indicate that several applications can be competitively met with SORFC systems. These applications include on-grid and off-grid distributed energy storage with or without co-produced hydrogen fuel; high altitude long endurance military and commercial aircraft and airships; and nuclear submarine life support and regenerative energy storage.

Industrial ecology in the North Karelia Region in Finland — Scenarios for heating energy supply

SUMMARY The emerging concept of industrial ecology (IE) has been applied in practice in few case studies on local/regional industrial recycling networks. Analogously to a natural ecosystem, the aim is to develop material cycles and energy cascades between local cooperative actors. An optimal resource basis of an industrial ecosystem is the sustainable use of local renewable natural resources. In this paper, we consider the region of North Karelia in Finland, with 19 municipalities, and hence somewhat expand the system boundaries of an industrial ecosystem case study. The current situation and two scenarios of municipal heating energy production are presented. The heating system consists of individual, district and electric heating. The heat production and related greenhouse gas emissions are considered. The current fuel use is based on imported oil and regional fuels (peat, wood wastes). Also, shares for co-production of heat and electricity (CHP) are shown. In scenario one, we assume the majority of the fuel basis in oil and absence of CHP. Scenario two illustrates nearly complete dependence on regional wood wastes and firewood with the current share of CHP. The North Karelia region provides the IE theory with a fruitful case study because the supply of waste fuels and local renewables is vast and waste utilisation technologies (CHP, fluidized bed burning) constitute a significant part of energy production. Implications of the applied scenario approach are discussed in the context of regional decision making and, in particular, for its implementation with the concepts of a regional environmental management system (EMS) and a regional industrial ecosystem management system (RIEMS).

Global warming or nuclear waste which do we want?

s the conference in The Hague was taking place, the outlook on global warming was increasingly alarming. In spite of the price increase of oil, a good thing from this point of view, and of gas in the near future, there does not seem to be any sign ofa reac­ tion similar to that of 1973. Though energy conservation, and the development of renewable energysources are desirable, it is more obvious every day that these will not be sufficient to stabilise, and even less, to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. Clearly, it is only through the renewed development of nuclear energy in the industrialised countries that we can obtain a significant and rapid reduction of gas emissions. We need only note that countries like France and Sweden,whichproduce their electricity without burn­ ing fossil fuels, generate half as much carbon dioxide per unit of energy consumed as Denmark whose electricity is produced essentially in coal or lignite plants. It seems paradoxical, then, that the energy supply scenarios put forward by such instances as the World EnergyCouncil do not seem to consider seriously a renew­ al of nuclear energy. On the contrary, certain countries, like Germany, are considering pulling out of nuclear energy altogeth­ er. It's as though the dangers associated with nuclear energy were perceived as worse than those related to global warming. Does this view rest on objective data, or is it not, rather, irrational? We cannot do without thinking this matter through: the future of our planet maydepend on the choices we make. We will attempt, here, to initiate such a reflection, as unbiased as possible. The first thing to do, then, is to compare the risks due to nuclear energy and to the production of greenhouse gases from the combustion offossil fuels. Nuclear risks

Forecast of sulfur deposition in Japan for various energy supply and emission control scenarios

In order to contribute to the analysis and solution of regional scale environmental problems in East Asia, we developed a tool for the comprehensive assessment of alternative policy options to improve air quality. This tool projects the future regional energy supply, calculates the emission levels of sulfur dioxide and estimates the geographical pattern of sulfur deposition resulting from emissions. Sulfur deposition in Japan through 2030 was forecasted for various energy supply and emission control scenarios using the analysis tool. Future sulfur depositions were calculated from the source-receptor matrix for 1995 and the growth rate of emission for the source subregion. In the case of the current legislation scenario, anthropogenic SO2 emissions in East Asia would grow by 34 percent and sulfur deposition in Japan would increase by approximately 20 percent between 1995 and 2030. This increase in sulfur deposition over these 35 years is sligthly less than the contribution from volcanic emission to sulfur deposition in Japan. In the case of the hypothetical dirty scenario for China, sulfur deposition in several grids which face the Sea of Japan would double by 2030.

Energy Demand and Supply in the Developing World, 1990–2020 Three Decades of Explosive Growth

Many recent scenarios of future world energy demand and supply assume a lower growth of energy demand in the developing world than has been the case in recent decades. Such scenarios are based on experience with declining energy intensities in the industrial world. This paper suggests a more plausible scenario in which energy demands in the developing world continue to double every decade. New technologies and improvements in efficiency will continue to lower the real cost of energy services, driving an expansion of these services to new consumers whose consumption has been limited by high prices, low incomes, and administrative induced constraints. Given initial low consumption levels and the income-elastic nature of most energy services, particularly transport, even modest rates of economic growth will induce large increases in demand. The availability of energy supplies will not constrain this surge. Rapid growth will create trade, environmental, and financial issues, but over the long run these can be managed through appropriate policies and technological progress.

Experience with the Operation of an Energy Model Set

The Energy Group of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) has developed a set of models to describe the global energy system. This was first used in the late seventies to formulate two scenarios for global energy demand and supply for the period 1980-2030. The original model set consists of individual models and blocks of assumptions that are arranged in the form of a loop. The information flow between the elements of the set is deliberately not fully automated, so as to enhance human control of the modeling process. The model set operates iteratively, i.e., tentative assumptions made in one part of the set are subsequently modified in the light of results in other parts of the set until satisfactory consistency over the set as a whole is achieved. This paper reports on the conclusions arrived at by the author during his participation in the work of formulating the IIASA scenarios and subsequent applications of the model set. The main methodological conclusion is that there is an important trade-off between model detail and model usability, which calls for great care in the design of both the models and the analysis to be undertaken.

Worldwide Applications of Ground-Coupled Heat Pumps, Conventional and Solar Assisted: ABSTRACT

The use of the ground as an energy source, sink or storage element for coupling to a heat pump has attracted renewed interest in recent years. Several system options have been developed, some of which use additional solar-derived energy. In applying ground coupling in a given situation, three major decisions must be made. First, it must be decided whether to use solar energy in the ground-coupled system, and if so, whether to design for long- or short-term energy storage. Second, the type of in-ground End_Page 957------------------------------ heat exchange device must be selected. These include the horizontal coil, the vertical heat exchanger, the buried water tank, and the buried flat plate. Third, the heat-exchange device must be sized relative to the heat pump, the load, and the solar components, if any. The ways in which these decisions have been approached in a variety of countries and climates have been analyzed as a base for assessing the outlook for ground-coupling applications in terms of economic, energy supply, and technology development scenarios which could work for or against ground coupling. These include availability and cost of the various forms of energy, in particular gas versus coal; availability of capital and interest rates; utility load profiles; and technical developments in air-to-air heat pumps, g s furnaces, and gas-fired heat pumps. The paper concludes with a discussion of research and development needs for ground coupling. End_of_Article - Last_Page 958------------

U.S. energy demand and supply scenarios: A retrospective appraisal of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences Study by the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems (CONEAS)

The paper presents the highlights of the report by the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems (CONAES) issued in January 1980 by the National Academy of Sciences. The study spans the time period from 1975, taken as a reference point, to the year 2010, with the year 1990 as a convenient mid-point. The anticipated energy demand is based on the assumption that the Gross National Product (GNP) during this period will grow at an average rate of either 2 or 3% and that the cost of energy will either remain constant, double or quadruple. The combination of these factors provides eight different scenarios for energy demand. The estimate of energy supply from various sources is worked out as a function of sociopolitical conditions which may either remain substantially unchanged, enhance energy supply by appropriate political action, or else will drive the growth of energy supply to the limit. These assumptions were the starting point for preparing three scenarios for the energy supply, each with a different mix of energy derived from various sources. By combining the eight demand scenarios with the three supply scenarios, a set of integrated scenarios for the period under study was worked out and analyzed. One conclusion arrived at is that, depending on the policies implemented, vastly different figures (with variations up to 2:1) can be forecasted for energy requirements in the year 2010, without significantly affecting either the standard of living or the lifestyle of Americans.

Fossil fuel resources and their impacts on environment and climate

This paper reviews the physical impacts of fossil fuel use on the environment and climate system. Such an analysis involves the assessment of the future world fossil fuel resources and their relative share in a future global energy mix. The specific environmental impacts are shown for conventional and unconventional coal, oil and gas production and combustion. The impact on climate is demonstrated for the release of heat, particles and CO 2. The future impact of CO 2 on climate, which may be quite serious and potentionally irreversible, cannot be predicted with confidence at this time. Rough estimates based on a world energy model, a carbon cycle model and a climate model show that for a variety of energy supply scenarios the global average temperature change above the present level around 2030 may fall between 0·5 and 4°C with the most probable value near to 1°C—and this would not be negligible. Autothermal synthetic fuel production may result in significant CO 2 increases, whereas allothermal methods may result in substantial CO 2 reductions. There are no CO 2 emissions if hydrogen is used as a direct energy carrier. In the face of the present uncertainties a flexible low-risk energy-CO 2-climate policy is suggested which would: 1. (a) encourage the more efficient end use of energy; 2. (b) promote the expeditious development of energy sources that add little or no CO 2 to the atmosphere, thereby permitting one to keep the global fossil fuel use, and hence CO 2 emission, at the present level.

Spatial Form and Structure in a Possible Future: Some Implications of Energy Shortfall for Urban Planning

Five alternate scenarios for future energy supply are developed, ranging from steady growth in supply to a decline to 75 percent of 1977 levels by the year 2000. These scenarios are applied to four...

1. A study of hyperfine interaction in cations of dibenzenechromium and ditoluenr-chromium: Yu. S. Karimov, V.M. Chibrikin & Schegolev

For electricity grids with an increasing share of intermittent renewables, the power generation mix can have significant daily variations. This leads to time-dependent emission intensities and volatile electricity prices in the day-ahead and spot market tariffs that can be better utilised by energy intensive industries such as water supply utilities. A multi-objective optimisation method for scheduling the operation of pumps is investigated in this paper for the reduction of both electricity costs and greenhouse gas emissions for a benchmark water distribution system. A set of energy supply scenarios has been formulated based on future projections from National Grid plc (UK) in order to investigate the range of cost savings and emission reductions that could be possibly achieved. Pump scheduling options with fixed time-of-use and day ahead market tariffs are analysed in order to compare potential reduction tradeoffs for both electricity costs and greenhouse gas emissions using Pareto optimality. The presented analysis concludes that the explicit inclusion of greenhouse gas emission reductions in optimising the scheduling of pumps operation in water distribution systems could provide considerable benefits; however, more compelling fiscal and regulatory incentives are needed.