European Energy Supply Research Articles

Assessment of the required share for a stable EU electricity supply until 2050

Power system balancing will become increasingly important to secure a reliable European energy supply, as the share of intermittent supply increases (e.g. variable generation from wind and solar PV). This paper shows, in a quantitative way, the limitations of relying exclusively on flexibility in generation as the future shares of intermittent supply increase. Literature and data on intermittent supply and existing scenarios are reviewed. Costs related to increasing shares of intermittent supply are assessed. Quantifiable indicators relevant for electricity systems with a high share of intermittent supply are developed, namely (a) flexible supply (generation units that can quickly change output); (b) balancing need (which measures the needed flexibility of the power system as the difference between peak and off-peak residual demand (net of intermittent supply)). There is an externality of increasing the share of intermittent supply by increasing the power system balancing costs. If the cost of integrating intermittent generation was to be limited to about 25 billion EUR per year, which is an addition of 24% per unit intermittent generation cost, the intermittent supply share cannot reach more than 40% in the European power market. The final choice of an acceptable cost increase will be a political choice.

Book Review: Security of Energy Supply in Europe: Natural Gas, Nuclear and Hydrogen

Book Review: Security of Energy Supply in Europe: Natural Gas, Nuclear and Hydrogen

Energy Security: A Robust Optimization Approach to Design a Robust European Energy Supply via TIAM-WORLD

Energy supply routes to a given region are subject to random events, resulting in partial or total closure of a route (corridor). For instance, a pipeline may be subject to technical problems that reduce its capacity. Or, oil supply by tanker may be reduced for political reasons or because of equipment mishaps at the point of origin or again, by a conscious decision by the supplier in order to obtain economic benefits. The purpose of this article is to formulate a simplified version of the above issue that mainly addresses long-term uncertainties. The formulation is done via a version of the TIAM-WORLD Integrated Model, modified to implement the approach of robust optimization. In our case, the approach can be interpreted as a revival of chance-constrained programming under the name of distributionally robust, or ambiguous, chance-constrained programming. We apply the approach to improve the security of supply to the European Energy system. The resulting formulation provides several interesting features regarding the security of EU energy supply and has also the advantage to be numerically tractable.

The sustainability of forestry biomass supply for EU bioenergy: A post-normal approach to environmental risk and uncertainty

► The risks of large scale bioenergy and biofuels supply are uncertain and contested. ► This is illustrated with reference to the policy, trends and impacts of European use of solid biomass for bioenergy. ► Post-normal science theory suggests that issues with contested sustainability and risk implications are best resolved or negotiated via inclusive stakeholder fora. ► A novel approach to structuring levels of risk and uncertainty, which acknowledges the post-normal science case, clarifies the different types of risk posed by large scale bioenergy. Most bioenergy supply scenarios suggest that a substantial fraction of future European energy supply could be biomass-based. Yet stakeholder opinion on the risks posed by a high level of bioenergy supply varies and the related science base is relatively undeveloped. Thinking on post-normal science advocates that issues with contested sustainability and risk implications are best resolved or negotiated via inclusive stakeholder fora, in which a variety of values and ways of thinking are respected. As the potential impacts of a large scale supply of forestry biomass for bioenergy have generally received less attention than the potential impacts of first generation biofuels, we use woody biomass risks to illustrate a novel risk perception typology that is consistent with thinking on post normal science. The typology is intended to both strengthen the case for inclusive decision-making in general and to clarify the nature of the risks posed by global solid biomass supply for European bioenergy.

Evolution of the indigenous European oil and gas sources—Recent trends and issues for consideration

This communication reviews the oil and natural gas resources, reserves and proved reserves of the European Union (EU) and the European Economic Area (EEA). Experts may apply different methodologies and classifications to assess hydrocarbon deposits, which makes their coherent and sound evaluation a challenging task. The analysis presented in this paper shows that there is variation in reported estimates for the EU and EEA oil and gas proved reserves, which is however relatively small; and EEA holds very small and continuously declining shares of world oil and gas proved reserves, about 1.3% and 2.9%, respectively. Nevertheless, conventional reserves and resources and more importantly unconventional gas resources offer a significant potential to increase the European proved reserves. This however requires the proper mapping and assessment of these sources and a rigorous research and development programme for the exploitation of this untapped potential, which could play a significant role in the security of the European energy supply in the years to come.

Renewable energy sources in European energy supply and interactions with emission trading

This paper presents a model-based approach, which allows to determine the optimised structure and operation of the EU-15 electricity supply under different political and economic framework conditions, with a focus on the integration of renewable energy sources for electricity generation (RES-E) in the EU-15 countries. The approach is designed to take into account the characteristics of power production from both renewable and conventional sources, including the technological and economic characteristics of existing plants as well as those of future capacity expansion options. Beyond that, fuel supply structures are modelled, as well as the international markets for power and CO 2-certificates with their restrictions. Thus, a profound evaluation of the exploitation of mid-term renewable potentials and an assessment of the market penetration of the various renewable power generation technologies under the (normative) premise of a cost-optimised evolution of the power system becomes possible. Results show that a promotion of renewable energies reduces the scarcity of CO 2-emission allowances and thus lowers marginal costs of CO 2 reduction up to 30% in 2030. Despite the higher overall costs, a diversification of the energy resource base by RES-E use is observed, as primarily natural gas and nuclear fuels are replaced.

The Linkages between Energy Efficiency and Security of Energy Supply in Europe

It can be argued that one way to reduce the dependence from external energy sources, is simply to reduce the demand for energy. Energy savings may thus be considered a policy priority when concerns for energy security are particularly strong. Drawing on an original econometric approach, we check whether policies and measures that affect indicators of energy efficiency performance have an analogous effect on security of supply indicators, both at the whole economy level and within the main sectors of energy use in the EU 15 countries and Norway. Our analyses show that the indicators studied are affected by a number of policies and measures; however very few of them seem able to tackle effectively and simultaneously, energy efficiency, carbon efficiency and energy security. The main lesson to be drawn from this analysis is therefore that there is a number of energy efficiency policies in the EU that do work, but there is no silver bullet able to successfully address different policy objectives. Taking a more general perspective, what seems to work is the policy mix rather than this or that policy in insulation.

Under the Kremlin's Thumb: Does Increased State Control in the Russian Gas Sector Endanger European Energy Security?

This article examines the effect of increased state control over the Russian gas sector and its ultimate impact on energy security in Europe. The various mechanisms by which the state has acquired ownership (or quasi-ownership) over several independent gas producers as well as the potential dangers this poses for European energy supplies are scrutinised. Due to the demonstrated inefficiency of Russian state-controlled companies, negative consequences, such as slowed production growth, are likely to result. The few remaining independent gas producers are still hampered in their development due to the government's reluctance to implement structural reforms in the Russian gas sector.

Employment impacts of EU biofuels policy: Combining bottom-up technology information and sectoral market simulations in an input–output framework

This paper analyses the employment consequences of policies aimed to support biofuels in the European Union. The promotion of biofuel use has been advocated as a means to promote the sustainable use of natural resources and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions originating from transport activities on the one hand, and to reduce dependence on imported oil and thereby increase security of the European energy supply on the other hand. The employment impacts of increasing biofuels shares are calculated by taking into account a set of elements comprising the demand for capital goods required to produce biofuels, the additional demand for agricultural feedstock, higher fuel prices or reduced household budget in the case of price subsidisation, price effects ensuing from a hypothetical world oil price reduction linked to substitution in the EU market, and price impacts on agro-food commodities. The calculations refer to scenarios for the year 2020 targets as set out by the recent Renewable Energy Roadmap. Employment effects are assessed in an input–output framework taking into account bottom-up technology information to specify biofuels activities and linked to partial equilibrium models for the agricultural and energy sectors. The simulations suggest that biofuels targets on the order of 10–15% could be achieved without adverse net employment effects.

Energy Security and the Division of Competences between the European Community and its Member States

Abstract: Securing energy supply for Europe has been for decades at the forefront of the energy policies of individual European Community member countries. However, dealing with energy issues in general and securing energy supply in particular is a new phenomenon within the EU's regulatory framework. One important issue which has not yet been discussed by legal scholars and which has been questioned repeatedly by energy experts, is the question who is actually responsible to guarantee security of energy supply in Europe? Is it the European Community alone? Is it the Member States alone? Or is it both? This question cannot be answered without a detailed legal analysis of the EU law in general, and EU law on division of competences between the Community and the Member States in particular. This article seeks to highlight the complications of this area of law within the EU and expand it to cover the energy sector in order to determine who and under what circumstances is responsible for guaranteeing security of energy supply for the consumers within the EU borders.

The European Union’s Energy Security Challenges

Recent increases in energy prices and a steady escalation in global energy demand—expected to rise by nearly 60 percent over the next twenty years—have led U.S. policymakers to engage in a wide-ranging debate over how best to address the country’s future energy requirements. Similarly, energy security has become a policy priority for the European Union (EU) and its twenty-seven member states. Together, the United States and Europe represent the world’s largest energy market. Although they produce approximately 23 percent of the world’s energy, they consume almost 40 percent of the world’s supply. The EU imports about 50 percent of the energy that it consumes. Barring significant changes, the European Commission expects this figure to rise to 65 percent by 2030. Approximately half of the EU’s imported energy comes from Russia, in the form of oil and natural gas. Europe’s growing dependence on Russian energy has fueled speculation that Moscow is using the “energy weapon” to try to influence European foreign and economic policy. The EU has traditionally exerted little if any influence over the energy policies of its individual member states. However, in March 2007, in the face of increasing concern regarding Europe’s reliance on Russian energy resources, and growing public pressure to address global climate change, the EU member states agreed on a series of policy measures intended to form the foundation of an “Energy Policy for Europe.” The March agreement aims to increase the EU’s ability to secure and diversify European energy supplies, while seeking to reduce EU-wide carbon emissions by promoting alternative and renewable energy sources.

Rhetoric versus reality: Russian threats to European energy supply

European gas demand will rise from presently 540 billion cubic meters (bcm) to around 800 bcm in 2030. As more than 50 percent of overall European imports originate from Russia, fears have been expressed that the Kremlin could use energy resources as a foreign policy tool. A thorough assessment of domestic consumption, production and investment volumes however reveals that Russian supply will have difficulties in matching growing domestic and European demand. Hence, as the author argues, the threat to European gas supply does not lie in geopolitics, but rather in a lack of investment in the Russian upstream sector. Higher domestic Russian gas prices, enhanced energy efficiency and increases in non-Gazprom production would however make it possible for Russia to meet domestic demand and its export commitments for natural gas.

Energy Interdependence in a Multi-polar World: Towards a Market-based Strategy for Safeguarding European Energy Supplies

Europe is a large energy importing region and destined to remain so for the foreseeable future. Ensuring the security of its energy supplies is principally hampered by two issues: first, the lack of a sustainable policy trade-off between the competing objectives of security of energy supply, competitiveness and environmental protection; second, a clear understanding that security of supply for an energy importing region demands first and foremost the multilateral strengthening of the global energy trading system. The article will provide in its first part an overview of the European energy situation and will outline in its second part promising directions for policy-action at the European level.JEL codes: Q43; Q48

06/01021 Future energy supply in Europe — challenge and chances: Hein, K. R. G. et al. Fuel, 2005, 84, (10), 1189–1194.

The bulk of rural populations in sub-Saharan Africa have no access to electricity and are under-served by any other form of modern infrastructure. The cost of infrastructure to mainly scattered communities has been perennially cited as largely to blame.Quite often rural networks are overdesigned, resulting in under utilization and, therefore, costly overheads. One reason often cited for the overspecification is anticipation of load growth. In most sub-Sahara African rural areas, however, economic growth rates are low, and a designer has no justification in specifying an infrastructure capacity exceeding more than a few percent of existing consumer requirements.This paper proposes methods that critically look at the geometry of small grid network designs to address the construction challenges in rural sub-Saharan Africa.

Wakening the serpent: reflections on the possible modification of the Euratom Treaty

Directives acquired in the framework of the Kyoto Protocol and the fact that the nuclear energy production does not generate carbon dioxide, might point to a recovery by the nuclear energy industry, which would be possible only within a more or less lengthy process of social confrontation in the Member States. While new scenarios for the European energy supply are being configured, the nuclear energy option remains open in many countries. Meanwhile, the Treaty establishing the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom) remains in force without having undergone any substantial change, as it was drawn up, many of its provisions being in a sense latent or awaiting an eventual decision regarding the use. This paper describes certain attempts made to reform the Euratom Treaty and the reasons for which they failed.

The technical feasibility of biomass gasification for hydrogen production

Biomass gasification for energy or hydrogen production is a field in continuous evolution, due to the fact that biomass is a renewable and CO 2 neutral source. The ability to produce biomass-derived vehicle fuel on a large scale will help to reduce greenhouse gas and pollution, increase the security of European energy supplies, and enhance the use of renewable energy. The Värnamo Biomass Gassification Centre in Sweden is a unique plant and an important site for the development of innovative technologies for biomass transformation. At the moment, the Värnamo plant is the heart of the CHRISGAS European project, that aims to convert the produced gas for further upgrading to liquid fuels as dimethyl ether (DME), methanol or Fischer–Tropsch (F–T) derived diesel. The present work is an attempt to highlight the conditions for the reforming unit and the problems related to working with streams having high contents of sulphur and alkali metals.

Future energy supply in Europe—challenge and chances

The conversion of primary energy from natural sources and the subsequent utilisation of secondary forms of energy are basically related to the development of our society with its continuous change of requirements. Consequently the consumption of primary energy resources rose drastically especially during the last five decades. However, the increasing awareness of environment pollution from the use of, e.g. fossil fuels, the limitation of the availability of such sources as well as market considerations and costs forces governments to re-orientate their energy policy in order to ensure a sustainable supply for the future of their societies. The paper will start with an overview of the energy market development in general and by comparing certain key areas in the world. In particular, the situation in Europe will be discussed and the consequences for political actions and technological needs for the future energy supply will be highlighted.

Assessing the ecological and economic sustainability of energy crops

The production and use of biomass for energy has both positive and negative impacts on the environment. The environmental impacts of energy crops should be clarified before political choices concerning energy crops are made. An important aid to policy-making would be a systematic methodology to assess the environmental sustainability of energy crops. So far, most studies on the environmental aspects of energy crops deal mainly with the energy production of the crops and the possible consequences for CO 2 mitigation. The Dutch Centre for Agriculture and Environment (CLM) has developed a systematic methodology to assess the ecological and socio-economic sustainability of biomass crops. The method is best described as a multicriteria analysis of process chains and is very much related to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). Characteristics of our methodology are the use of: • definition of functional units; • analysis of the entire lifecycle; • definition of yield levels and corresponding agricultural practices; • analysis of both ecological and economic criteria; • definition of reference systems; • definition of procedures for normalisation and weighting. CLM has applied the method to assess the sustainability of ten potentially interesting energy crops in four European regions. The results are used to outline the perspectives for large scale production of biomass crops with regard to the medium and long term land availability in Europe. For the crops considered, net energy budget ranges from 85 GJ net avoided fossil energy per ha for rape seed for fuel to 248 GJ net avoided fossil energy per ha for silage maize for electricity from gasification. The methodology of the tool and its results were discussed at the concerted action “Environmental aspects of biomass production and routes for European energy supply” (AIR3-94-2455), organised by CLM in 1996. Major conclusions of the research: • Multicriteria analysis of process lifecycles is at present the best available option to assess the ecological and economical sustainability of energy crops. However, it is recognised that further research and development activities in the field of LCA are necessary. • Use of crops for generation of electricity is preferred to use of crops for transport fuels since the latter score low on both ecological and socio-economical criteria. • Large scale use and production of energy crops requires (a) choices and goals from agricultural, environmental, and energy policies, and (b) policy instruments for financial incentives e.g. with payments or with tax rebates, preferably per kilogram avoided CO 2 emission.

98/01438 Sustainability of production and use of biomass for European energy supply: Van Der Bijl, G. Biomass Energy Environ., Proc. Eur. Bioenergy Conf., 9th, 1996, 1, 387–392. Edited by Chartier, P., Elsevier, Oxford, UK

98/01438 Sustainability of production and use of biomass for European energy supply: Van Der Bijl, G. Biomass Energy Environ., Proc. Eur. Bioenergy Conf., 9th, 1996, 1, 387–392. Edited by Chartier, P., Elsevier, Oxford, UK

Impacts of the Gulf War and Changes in Eastern Europe

Important to any detailed analysis of European energy markets are the possible consequences of the Gulf war and the changes in the ex-USSR on the supply and traditional pattern of exchange in this part of the world. I will first examine the influence of the Gulf States (and more generally the Middle Eastern countries), and the former USSR on energy supply in Europe to see whether changes in these areas are likely to have a significant effect on the economy of Western Europe. I will look at what the impact of these changes might be in the short term, both in the case of situations involving further upheavals in the former USSR like those we experienced less than a year ago in the Middle East, and in the case of gradual return to stability in these two parts of the world. Lastly, I will try to put forward a few ideas on the mediumand long-term changes that may take place in Western Europe, within the worldwide energy context, in view of these two recent events. Energy imports in Western Europe chiefly consist of oil and gas. Oil imports are sourced mainly from the Middle East, North Africa and the former USSR, while gas imports originate in the former USSR, Africa and within Western Europe itself (see Tables 1 and 2)1. Oil and gas imports account for 50% of Europe's energy requirements and thus stability in the areas of the world where these imports are sourced is of obvious importance to the countries of Western Europe. Immediately following the Gulf war, European countries, like most other importing countries, had no great difficulty in replacing imports from Iraq and Kuwait by oil from other producing countries in the Middle East, and to a lesser extent, from non-OPEC countries. Both oil volume and price problems