Energy Structure Research Articles

Transition finance facilitates lower-cost achievement of climate targets: A case study of China

Low-carbon transition in carbon-intensive industries is crucial for achieving climate targets. However, it's challenging for enterprises and projects in these industries to access the necessary funding for their transition within the existing financial system. In this context, transition finance supports the low-carbon transition of carbon-intensive industries, injecting momentum into achieving carbon neutrality goals. However, the precise impact of transition finance on the macroeconomy remains uncertain, and the effective strategies for its implementation to effectively advance national climate objectives are still unclear. This study integrates the stock-flow consistent method into a computable general equilibrium model to evaluate the macroeconomic impact of transition finance supporting China's climate goals. Results indicate that promoting investment in energy systems capital within carbon-intensive industries through transition finance can reduce the economic cost of achieving carbon reduction targets in China, with a reduction ranging from 0.02 % to 0.26 %. Additionally, transition finance optimizes the energy structure in the short term, mitigates the exit of high-carbon industries, and lessens the impact of climate targets on these enterprises. However, implementing transitional financing requires enhanced information disclosure and strict regulation of fund flows to mitigate potential credit risks. The research findings provide valuable insights into China's transition finance policy formulation and serve as a reference for other regions seeking financial support to achieve climate targets.

Indirect-to-direct bandgap transition in GaP semiconductors through quantum shell formation on ZnS nanocrystals

Although GaP, a III-V compound semiconductor, has been extensively utilized in the optoelectronic industry for decades as a traditional material, the inherent indirect bandgap nature of GaP limits its efficiency. Here, we demonstrate an indirect-to-direct bandgap transition of GaP through the formation of quantum shells on the surface of ZnS nanocrystals. The ZnS/GaP quantum shell with a reverse-type I heterojunction, consisting of a monolayer-thin GaP shell grown atop a ZnS core, exhibits a record-high photoluminescence quantum yield of 45.4% in the violet emission range (wavelength = 409 nm), validating its direct bandgap nature. Density functional theory calculations further reveal that ZnS nanocrystals, as the growth platform for GaP quantum shells, play a crucial role in the direct bandgap formation through hybridization of electronic states with GaP. These findings suggest potential for achieving direct bandgaps in compounds that are constrained by their inherent indirect energy gaps, offering a strategy for tailoring energy structures to significantly improve efficiencies in optoelectronics and photovoltaics.

Research on the Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions in Low-carbon Communities based on Complex Network Theory

Achieving carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060 is a solemn commitment made by China to address global climate change, and is also one of the main goals for economic and social development in the 14th Five Year Plan and the 2035 vision period. The changes in carbon emissions are directly related to the progress of China's "carbon peak" and "carbon neutrality" goals. Therefore, in-depth research on the influencing factors of carbon emissions has become a key link in promoting the achievement of this goal. In the existing research on carbon emission influencing factors, countries mainly focus on macro scale low-carbon urban carbon emission influencing factors and micro scale low-carbon building full life cycle carbon emission influencing factors. However, there is relatively little research on the influencing factors of carbon emissions in low-carbon communities of urban micro units, and there is still considerable research space. This study conducted an in-depth analysis of the influencing factors of carbon emissions in low-carbon communities using complex network methods. By constructing a complex network model of factors affecting carbon emissions, we identified key nodes and pathways, and explored their interrelationships. The results indicate that factors such as energy structure, resident behavior, building design, and policy implementation play an important role in carbon emissions in low-carbon communities.

Quantitative sustainability assessment for in-situ electrical resistance heating coupled with steam enhanced extraction: An effective approach for the development of green remediation technologies

There is a lack of quantitative methodology for the sustainability assessment based on field data in the process of innovative technology development for groundwater remediation. This study developed a quantitative assessment framework, a model based on the life cycle assessment integrated with best management practices (LCA-BMPs), to evaluate the environmental, economic, and social sustainability of in-situ electrical resistance heating coupled with steam enhanced extraction (ERH-SEE), an innovative technology being demonstrated in the field. The results indicated that ERH-SEE offered better environmental sustainability performance compared to ERH only, with a reduction in carbon emissions by 52.6 %. ERH-SEE also significantly reduces human toxicity, resource consumption, and ecosystem impacts under the same remediation scenarios. The further assessment indicated that if taking the renewable energy share in energy structure in different countries into consideration, higher shares of renewable energy used in energy supplies can substantially reduce the environmental footprint of the studied scenarios. The economic sustainability assessment results showed that ERH-SEE was more sustainable than ERH only, as it reduces direct economic costs by 35.7 % and provides higher levels of worker employment. Regarding the social sustainability, ERH-SEE involved more complex operational procedures and presented more health risk exposure scenarios compared to ERH only, resulting in slightly more pronounced worker safety issues. Based on the final normalized results, the overall sustainability results of ERH-SEE and ERH only were 78.4 and 61.5, respectively, demonstrating that the sustainability performance of ERH-SEE was better than ERH only. It can be concluded that the application of ERH-SEE in groundwater remediation where significant heterogeneities occur in subsurface can increase the sustainability in developing countries, due to the lower percentage in renewable electricity in the energy supply. This study provided new insights into the technology development for the remediation of soil and groundwater contamination.

Near stoichiometric-ratio Mg3Sb2 thermoelectric thin films fabricated via multi-step annealing strategies

Recently, Zintl Mg3Sb2-based compounds have attracted attention due to high thermoelectric performance, but most studies are concentrated on bulk materials with few on films and devices, limiting their applications for microelectronics. Here, p-type Mg3Sb2 films near stoichiometric-ratio are successfully fabricated using the multi-step experimental strategies based on the magnetron sputtering method. By tuning the energy structure and carrier transport, their thermoelectric performance is significantly improved, with a power factor up to 258.64 μW m−1 K−2 at ∼623 K. A Mg3Sb2-based generator is fabricated using these films, representing the first report of such a device. The output performance of this generator is evaluated and its power density is found to reach 9.4 μW cm−2 at ΔT of 40 K, showing good potential for powering electronics. Furthermore, the generator shows good stability with no significant change in output properties after storage in air for 40 days or over periodic cycles of high- and room-temperature operation.

Aluminum demand and low carbon development scenarios for major countries by 2050

Aluminum is a widely used energy-intensive material and the second largest source of carbon emissions from metal after steel. Global demand for aluminum has grown rapidly since 1970 and has shown a high correlation with population and economic growth. These factors have posed challenges to carbon reduction of aluminum industry. Therefore, it is crucial to investigate global aluminum demand and emissions to develop low carbon pathways. However, few studies have conducted a comprehensive analysis of the global aluminum industry. We develop different scenarios of joint abatement measures to explore pathways for the aluminum industry to significantly reduce carbon emissions by 2050. Three scenarios are considered, namely, moderate mitigation scenario (MMS), enhanced mitigation scenario (EMS), and deep mitigation scenario (DMS). The results show that: 1) Aluminum industry has a high potential for carbon emission reduction. The emissions in the three scenarios will be reduced by 33%, 77% and 85% by 2050 compared to 2020, respectively. 2) The carbon emission reduction effect of energy structure optimization and low carbon technology application is significant, with the use of clean energy playing a decisive role. 3) There is an inverse U-shaped curve relationship between per capita primary aluminum demand and per capita GDP. The aluminum demand in China and India is still growing at a high rate, and carbon emissions are always at the top. This study will effectively support the development of a low-carbon transition path for the global aluminum industry.

Influence of carbon content and irradiation modes on the antibiotic removal from water using VIS-activated TiO2/expanded graphite composite photocatalysts

TiO2/expanded graphite (TiO2/EG) composite films were applied to water treatment for sulfadiazine (SDZ) degradation in a continuous flat plate photochemical reactor. The films were synthesized by sol-gel method and deposited on borosilicate glass by airbrush spray coating technique, forming a TiO2/C heterojunction. Increasing the amount of carbon promoted more efficient photocatalytic removal of SDZ under simulated sunlight, which increased from 9.1% in the absence of carbon to 49.8% for the material containing 7.5% C. From the formation of the TiO2/C heterojunction, morphological modifications, changes in the electronic structure and reduction of the band gap energy were observed. Type-II heterojunction formation was observed. Foreground and background irradiation modes were investigated, and a possible photocatalytic mechanism was proposed. TiO2/7.5 %-EG exhibited the best photocatalytic performance, with the possibility of reuse. The films showed good reusability in the SDZ degradation over 4 photocatalytic cycles. The influence of irradiation modes and the role of oxidizing species were discussed. The results showed that TiO2/EG hybrid films are a promising alternative for practical photocatalytic applications under sunlight.

Ethylene glycol-assisted microwave synthesis of bismuth-rich oxychlorides photocatalysts with oxygen vacancies for efficient degradation of bisphenol A and oxidation of arsenite

The bismuth-rich strategy, which involves increasing the bismuth content within the BiOCl structure, offers an effective approach for tailoring the physicochemical and optoelectrical properties of BiOCl photocatalysts for enhanced photocatalytic performance. In this study, BiOCl, Bi12O15Cl6, and Bi12O17Cl2 were selectively synthesized using the ethylene glycol (EG)-assisted microwave irradiation method by regulating the pH of the reaction solution. Photocatalytic performance was evaluated by studying bisphenol A (BPA) degradation and arsenite (As(III)) oxidation under visible-light irradiation. The energy structures and bandgaps of the materials were tuned according to their chemical compositions, affecting their photocatalytic activity. Bi12O17Cl2 (EG-pH 9) exhibited superior photo-efficiency: 85.4 % of BPA and 97.6 % of As(III) were removed by Bi12O17Cl2 (EG-pH 9) at rates 17.7 and 18.4 times higher than those of BiOCl (EG-initial pH 3), respectively. This superior performance attributed to the synergistic effect between the bismuth-rich nature and oxygen vacancies (OVs) induced by EG, along with the presence of OH− ions in the reaction solution. The increased number of OVs in Bi12O17Cl2 led to enhanced photocurrent density and charge transfer efficiency. Trapping experiments, DMPO-ESR spin-trapping, nitroblue tetrazolium transformation, terephthalic acid photoluminescence probing, and o-tolidine oxidation experiments identified holes (h+), superoxide radicals (•O2−), superoxide radicals (•OH) and electrons (e−) as the reactive species. Density functional theory calculations further highlight the OV of Bi12O17Cl2 as the active site for O2 adsorption. This study not only developed an effective method for fabricating bismuth-rich oxychlorides with OVs but also demonstrated the potential of these photocatalysts for wastewater treatment.

Hydrogen adsorption on fcc metal surfaces towards the rational design of electrode materials

The successful large-scale implementation of hydrogen as an energy vector requires high performance electrodes and catalysts made of abundant materials. Rational materials design strategies are the most efficient means of reaching this goal. Here we present a study on the adsorption of H-atoms onto fcc transition metal surfaces and propose descriptors for the rational design of electrodes and catalysts by means of correlations between fundamental properties of the materials and among other properties, their experimentally measured performance as hydrogen evolution electrodes (HEE). A large set of quantum mechanical modelling data at the DFT level was produced, covering the adsorption of H-atoms onto the most stable surfaces (100), (110) and (111) of: Ag, Au, Co, Cu, Ir, Ni, Pd, Pt and Rh. For each material and surface, a coverage dependent set of minimum energy structures was produced and chemical potentials for adsorption of H-atoms were obtained. Averaging procedures are here proposed to approach modelling to the experiments. Several correlations between the computed data and experimentally measured quantities are done to validate our methodology: surface plane dependent adsorption energies, chemical potentials and experimentally determined surface energies and work functions. We search for descriptors of catalytic activity by testing correlations between the DFT data obtained from our averaging procedures and experimental data on HEE performance. Our methodology allows us to obtain linear correlations between the adsorption energy of H-atoms and the exchange current density (i0) in a HEE, avoiding the volcano-like plots. We show that the chemical potential has limitations as a descriptor of i0 because it reaches an early plateau in terms of i0. Simple quantities obtained from database data such as the first stage electronegativity (χ) as devised by Mulliken has a strong linear correlation i0. With a quantity we denominate modified second-stage electronegativity (χ2m) we can reproduce the typical volcano plot in a correlation with i0. A theoretical and conceptual framework is presented. It shows that both χ and χ2m, that depend on the first ionization potential, second ionization potential and electron affinity of the elements can be used as descriptors in rational design of electrodes or of catalysts for hydrogen systems.

MB38(M=Be and Zn): A Quasi-Planar Structure Rather Than a Core-Shell Octahedral Borospherene Structure.

In a recent paper (ChemPhysChem, 2023, 24, e202200947), based on the results computed using DFT method, the perfect core-shell octahedral configuration Be@B38 and Zn@B38 was reported to be the global minima of the MB38(M=Be and Zn) clusters. However, this paper presents the lower energy structures of MB38(M=Be and Zn) clusters as a quasi-planar configuration, the Be atom is found to reside on the convex surface of the quasi-planar B38 isomer, while the Zn atom tends to be attached to the top three B atoms of the quasi-planar B38 isomer. Our results show that quasi-planar MB38(M=Be and Zn) at DFT method have lower energy than core-shell octahedral configuration M@B38(M=Be and Zn). Natural atomic charges, valence electron density, electron localization function (ELF) analyses identify the MB38(M=Be and Zn) to be charge transfer complexes (Be2+B38 2-and Zn1+B38 1-) and suggest primarily the electrostatic interactions between doped atom and B38 fragment. The photoelectron spectra of the corresponding anionic structures were simulated, providing theoretical basis for future structural identification.

Forecast of Commodity Energy Consumption and Structure of Rural Households in Sichuan Province

With the growth in energy consumption, problems such as environmental pollution and resource depletion are becoming more and more prominent, and the sustainable use of energy resources and sustainable economic and social development can be achieved only through scientific forecasting and effective management. Forecasting the changing trend of energy consumption structure can guide the government and society to take corresponding measures for environmental protection and sustainable development, and reduce the negative impact of energy consumption on the environment. Based on the current development situation of commodity energy in rural households in Sichuan Province and related consumption data, this paper uses the grey prediction model and Markov model to predict the consumption and consumption structure of commodity energy in rural households in Sichuan Province. It is found that among the four types of commodity energy consumed by rural households in Sichuan Province, the consumption of electricity shows exponential and growth, and it is expected that the consumption of electricity by rural households in Sichuan Province from 2022 to 2025 will be 3,316,166, 3,582,203, 3,886,622, and 4,216,240 tonnes of standard coal, respectively. Meanwhile, using Markov chain to predict the consumption structure, it is found that under the no-planning constraint scenario, the share of energy consumption of electricity and natural gas is increasing, while the share of energy consumption of coal and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) will be decreasing, and the shares of energy consumption of coal, electricity, natural gas, and LPG will be 1.97 per cent, 75.82 per cent, 26.36 per cent, and 0.02 per cent, respectively, by 2030.

Tailoring Energy Structure of Low‐Toxic Ternary Ag−Bi−S Quantum Dots through Solution‐Phase Synthesis for Quantum‐Dot‐Sensitized Solar Cells

AbstractLow‐toxic multinary semiconductor quantum dots (QDs) showing a photoresponse in a wide wavelength range from visible to near‐IR wavelength regions have been intensively investigated for fabricating efficient solar light conversion systems. Recently, AgBiS2 QDs have attracted much attention for their application to improve the performance of QD solar cells because they have a large absorption coefficient in the visible and near‐IR regions. In this report, we describe solution‐phase preparation of ternary Ag−Bi−S QDs with different sizes and with different Ag/Bi ratios. The average size of resulting spherical Ag−Bi−S QDs was controllable from 2.7 to 8.1 nm by adjusting the reaction temperature from 373 to 473 K, while the Ag fraction of obtained QDs also increased with an increase in particle size. The absorption onset wavelength shifted from 850 to 1200 nm in the near‐IR region as the particle size increased. AgBiS2 QDs with an almost stoichiometric composition, obtained at reaction temperatures of 423 K and 473 K, contained no deep intragap states and exhibited a p‐type semiconductor behavior, while QDs prepared at a reaction temperature of 393 K or lower had non‐stoichiometric Ag‐deficient compositions producing intragap defect states. Sensitized solar cells fabricated with stoichiometric AgBiS2 QDs exhibited a photoresponse in visible and near‐IR wavelength regions, the optimal PCE being 0.74% with AgBiS2 QDs of 6.2 nm in diameter that were prepared at 423 K.

A Study on the Impact of China’s Prefabricated Building Policy on the Carbon Reduction Benefits of China’s Construction Industry Based on a Difference-in-Differences Method

The construction industry is a significant contributor to carbon emissions in China. To effectively meet the “dual carbon” targets, several provincial regions within the country started to implement policies promoting prefabricated buildings. This study examines data from 18 provinces in China over the period from 2012 to 2021, treating the introduction of prefabricated building policies as a quasi-natural experiment. Utilizing the difference-in-differences methodology, this research assesses the impact of these policies on the carbon emission performance of China’s construction sector and evaluates the robustness of the findings. The results indicate that the prefabricated building policies positively influenced the carbon emission efficiency of the construction industry. Specifically, these policies enhance carbon emission efficiency by increasing labor productivity, optimizing the allocation of mechanical resources, and improving the utilization rate of building materials. Additionally, the effectiveness of these policies is positively correlated with the level of regional technological innovation, environmental protection efforts, and the advancement of energy structure optimization. The study concludes with several policy recommendations aimed at further enhancing the effectiveness of prefabricated building policies.

The Impacts on Regional Development and “Resource Curse” by Energy Substitution Policy: Verification from China

With the increasing “resource curse” phenomena relating to energy resources in China, research concerning energy substitution policies has become more meaningful. In this paper, a dynamic CGE model was built to evaluate the impacts of energy substitution policies on regional growth and the “resource curse”. The results show the following: (1) Compared to other regions, an energy substitution policy exerts a more considerable influence on economic growth in regions with high “resource curse”. (2) The changes in carbon emissions in regions with no or low “resource curse” are modest. The primary factor contributing to the rapid decline might be energy structure adjustments. As the intensity of substitution varies, the regional disparities in marginal emission reduction costs are expected to increase. (3) Energy substitution policies reduce the severity of high “resource curse” regions. As the intensity of energy substitution increases, the extent of “resource curse” regions decreases accordingly. Some suggestions are given as follows: (1) Further promote energy substitution and speed up the transformation of energy production and consumption modes in China. (2) Accelerate the energy transformation in “resource curse” regions to promote regional sustainable development. (3) Improve energy substitution policies in transportation, industry and other fields.

Carbon Emission Prediction Algorithm for Community Electricity Consumption Based on Improved PSO Algorithm with Optimized Autoregressive Moving Average Models

Abstract The anticipation of carbon emissions stemming from community electricity usage stands as a pivotal field of study. Such analysis holds the potential to furnish communities with informed pathways towards crafting viable carbon reduction strategies, thereby contributing significantly to the overarching goals of carbon peaking and eventual neutrality. The intricacies of carbon emissions from community electricity consumption are manifold, entangled with variables like energy consumption patterns, energy mix, and carbon emission coefficients. Hence, the imperative lies in crafting a predictive framework adept at holistically integrating these variables to enhance prognostic precision and reliability. Within this research, we propose a dynamic carbon emission factor regression model. This model is uniquely poised to capture real-time shifts influenced by changes in energy structure and policy landscapes, thereby amplifying predictive sensitivity. Leveraging the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm, we synchronously optimize the autoregressive terms (p) of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and the moving average terms (q) of the MA model to attain a globally optimal solution. Crucially, this approach obviates the need for manual intervention and arbitrary parameter selection. In contrast to conventional optimization methodologies, our paper advances the PSO’s weight calculation mechanism. By assigning greater weight values during the initial iterations, the algorithm maintains robust global search capabilities. Subsequently, the inertia weight diminishes progressively throughout the iteration process, fostering precise local exploration.

Density functional theory-based study on the structural, electronic and spectral properties of gas-phase PbMg n - (n = 2-12) clusters.

Gas-phase PbMg n- (n = 2-12) cluster structures were globally searched on their potential energy surfaces by means of the CALYPSO prediction software. Structural optimization and calculations of properties such as relative energy and electronic structure were then carried out by density functional theory for each size of low energy isomer. The structural, relative stability, natural charge population, natural electronic configuration and distribution of the strongest peaks of the infrared and Raman spectra of the low energy isomers of PbMg n- (n = 2-12) clusters were systematically investigated in the present work. It was shown that the PbMg7- cluster ground state isomer exhibits the highest stability, for which special electronic excitation and chemical bonding analyses were performed. It is reasonable to believe that this work enriches the structural, spectroscopic and other data of magnesium-based clusters and provides some theoretical basis for possible future experimental syntheses.

Optimizing sustainable development in arid river basins: A multi-objective approach to balancing water, energy, economy, carbon and ecology nexus

The ongoing water crisis poses significant threats to the socioeconomic sustainability and ecological security of arid and semi-arid river basins. Achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) within a complex socio-ecological nexus requires effective and balanced resource management. However, due to the intricate interactions between human societies and environmental systems, the tradeoffs and synergies of different SDGs remain unclear, posing a substantial challenge for collaborative management of natural resources. Here we introduce a gray fractional multi-objective optimization (GFMOP) model to balance multi-dimensional SDGs through a novel water–energy–economy–carbon–ecology nexus perspective. The model was applied to a typical arid river basin in Northwest China, where thirty-two scenarios were explored, considering factors such as shared socioeconomic pathways, carbon removal rates, water conveyance efficiencies, and ecological requirements. The results reveal a strong tradeoff between marginal benefit and carbon emission intensity, indicating that improving the economic efficiency of water use can simultaneously reduce emissions and protect the environment. Given the immense power generation potential, wind power development should be prioritized in the future, with its share in the energy structure projected to increase to 23.3% by 2060. Furthermore, promoting carbon capture technologies and expanding grassland coverage are recommended to achieve regional carbon neutrality, contributing 39.5% and 49.1% to carbon absorption during 2021–2060, respectively. Compared with traditional single-objective models, GFMOP demonstrates a superiority in uncovering interrelationships among multiple SDGs and identifying compromised alternatives within the compound socio-ecological nexus. The model also provides detailed strategies for resource allocation and pollutant control, offering valuable guidance to policymakers and stakeholders in pursuing sustainable and harmonious watershed management.

WITHDRAWN: The impact of renewable energy development on regional carbon emission reduction: Based on the spatio-temporal analysis of 30 provinces in China

The development of renewable energy has become an important means for the world to cope with climate change, ensure energy security and protect the ecological environment. Using the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2013 to 2021, this paper used the mediating effect model and the spatial Durbin model (SDM) to explore the mechanism and spatial effects of renewable energy development on carbon emission reduction. The results show that: (1) The results of mechanism analysis show that renewable energy development reduces carbon intensity by improving energy structure, promoting industrial structure optimization and industrial structure upgrading. (2) Renewable energy development can not only reduce the local carbon intensity, but also have a positive spillover effect on the carbon intensity of neighboring regions. (3) Further analysis shows that renewable energy development has a dynamic effect on carbon emissions. The heterogeneity analysis shows that compared with the Yellow River basin, renewable energy development significantly influences carbon emission reduction in the Yangtze River Economic Belt region. Energy-rich areas fall into the "resource curse", which makes renewable energy development’s carbon emission reduction effect not significant. This paper has certain reference significance for promoting reasonable decomposition between regions and formulating renewable energy development policies.

Spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors analysis of regional energy supply and demand in China

Under the requirements of the Sustainable Development Goals, the study of China's energy development is an important reference for other countries to plan their energy policies. China is facing the problem of slow energy transformation processes and a continuously widening gap between supply and demand. Using panel data for 2012–2021, this study analyzes the characteristics of energy in China's 30 provinces, and clarifies the problems faced by each province. GM (1,1) model is employed to forecast the level of energy development from 2023 to 2030. The LMDI (Logarithmic mean Divisia index) model is utilized to analyze factors impacting energy demand in each province, according to which the design of energy development direction in each region is completed. The study finds that: (1) Overall, energy supply and demand in China are marked by “high in the west, low in the east” and “low in the west, high in the east,” respectively. The energy structure of each region is continuously optimized, but coal still has a high share. (2) The pace of clean energy development is satisfactory. However, natural gas's increase in share is relatively slight on both supply and demand sides. The substitution effect is not in line with the expectations of the transition policy. (3) Economic and investment effect are major contributing factors to increase energy demand, while the technical effect plays a significant part in reducing energy demand. A few insights from this study are provided for the formulation of transition policies in China.

Megacity pathways in China under the dual carbon goal: The case of Shanghai

The pathways to achieving carbon neutrality at the city level are diverse due to varying energy supply and demand conditions. Shanghai faces obstacles such as limited land resources, high costs of renewable energy technologies, and instability of renewable energy. These challenges hinder the city’s efforts to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality (dual carbon). Therefore, Shanghai must identify and optimize its development path for renewable energy under the dual carbon goal. We employed the Low Emissions Analysis Platform-Shanghai (LEAP-SH) model to simulate the impact of policies, such as industrial upgrading, energy efficiency improvement, energy structure optimization, increased technical innovation on energy, and ecological restoration, on the carbon emission pathways from 2022 to 2060 using five different scenarios. Our results indicate that Shanghai has the potential to achieve carbon neutrality in 2059 by promoting carbon reduction, pollution control, and green expansion. Moreover, we determined that the manufacturing industry; power generation industry; and transportation, storage, and mail services are the three major sectors for emission reduction under the dual carbon goal. Furthermore, the capacity and output of coal-fired power plants will be gradually replaced by offshore wind power in the dual carbon pathway. Finally, this study proposes countermeasures and suggestions for Shanghai to attain the dual carbon goal and high-quality development.