Energy Rebound Effect Research Articles

Limits of technological progress in controlling energy consumption: Evidence from the energy rebound effects across China's industrial sector

As issues concerning the environment and energy security have become extremely serious, investment in technological research and the development of China's industrial sector has been markedly increasing in an effort to control energy consumption. Energy rebound effects may offset the effects of the energy saved as a result of technological advancement. The present study assessed 30 provinces in China from 2001 to 2017 and analysed the relationship between the heterogeneous technological progress rates and energy productivity of China's industrial sector. This study also assesses the energy rebound effect of China's industrial sector using elasticity analysis. The energy rebound effect in China's industrial sector was significant. Furthermore, the energy rebound effect serves as a regional characteristic of progressive growth from the eastern, central and western regions in China. Moreover, an increasing variation with time was observed in the energy rebound effect of most provinces, indicating that China's industrial development is still ridden with the rough developmental pattern in the sample interval. Finally, according to the characteristics of the energy rebound effect of China's industrial sector, possible explanations and related policy recommendations have been provided from the perspective of energy market reforms and environmental regulations.

Energy rebound effects associated with consumption distribution of residents in Beijing

Energy rebound effects associated with consumption distribution of residents in Beijing

A theoretical analysis of the energy rebound effects of private consumers

The research uses microeconomic theory and consumer theory to analytically test the theoretical basis of the indirect rebound effect caused due to upsurge in the energy efficiency of consumers from the private sector. It also explains how to use the carbon dioxide emissions reflected in the life cycle assessment to forecast and describes the indirect rebound effect of carbon dioxide emissions measured by the household sector. In addition, the thesis also empirically benefits the research studies focused on the rebound effect as it stimulates the policy scenarios and BAU in an estimated common equilibrium framework. According to the theoretical studies, there are different elasticities for the firm and household that determine the extent of the rebound effect and these determinants vary as the policy standards turn further stringent. Moreover, it is also shown that each of these policy scenarios exerts a much large rebound effect that outspreads throughout the economy, reaching up to half of the entire economy being measured by the life cycle of greenhouse emissions. Though more direct rebound effects are generated from the stringent fuel efficiency standard which is measured in terms of the higher percentage than the medium and lenient standards but still more decrease in the carbon emissions is attributed to the stringent policy that is measured in terms of the physical units.

Voluntary actions in households and climate change mitigation

Governments foster voluntary actions within households to mitigate climate change. However, the literature suggests that they may not be as effective as expected due to rebound effects. We use a dynamic economy–energy–environment computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Catalan economy to simulate the effect of 75 different actions on GDP and net CO2 emissions, over a 20-year period. We also examine how a carbon tax could counteract the carbon rebound effects. We find energy rebound effects ranging from 61.77% to 117.49% for voluntary energy conservation actions, depending on where the spending is redirected, with similar carbon rebound values. In our main scenarios, where energy savings are redirected to savings and all non-energy goods proportionally, the rebound is between 64.47% and 66.90%. We also find, for these scenarios, that a carbon tax of between 2.4 and 3.6 €/ton per percentage point of voluntary energy reduction would totally offset carbon rebound effects. These results suggest that voluntary actions in households need additional measures to provide the expected results in terms of energy use reduction and climate change mitigation.

Regional differences and threshold characters of the impact of energy use efficiency on energy scarcity in China

The improvement of the technical efficiency of energy use has been widely seen as an important way to alleviate energy scarcity. However, the energy rebound effect demonstrates the vulnerability and unsustainability of alleviating energy scarcity relying on technology. Under the background of the consistent development of energy factor market, it is of great importance to explore the paths and differences of energy source allocation constrained by technology and cost to promote the sustainable use of energy. This study analyzed the regional differences and threshold characteristics in the impact of the technical and cost efficiency of energy use on energy scarcity using the instrumental variable-two-stage least square method, based on the panel data of Chinese provinces from 2003 to 2017. The results showed that: ① Technology and price were the critical forces of the technical and cost efficiency of energy use. They changed the degree of use of surplus production factors by affecting the complementary and replacement demand relationship between energy and non-energy factors. Meanwhile, the impact of energy use efficiency on energy scarcity showed regional and time features due to the different technology capabilities and different levels of market development in different regions and different time. ② The alleviation of energy scarcity at the national level relied on the improvement of energy cost efficiency. At the regional level, the alleviation of energy scarcity in central China came from the improvement of the technical efficiency of energy use. However, the alleviation of energy scarcity in the eastern and western regions was due to the improvement of energy cost efficiency. ③ Constrained by the economic development, openness, science and technology input and the industrial development structure, the impact of the technical and cost efficiency of energy use on energy scarcity demonstrated a nonlinear feature. And structural mutation occurred after passing a specific ‘inflection point’, which showed a significant threshold feature. Therefore, energy price should play an important role in energy use and it is necessary to pay attention to the regional differences and time characteristics of energy economic development to promote the sustainable development of energy resources.

Carbon emissions trading scheme, energy efficiency and rebound effect – Evidence from China's provincial data

This paper uses the carbon emissions trading pilot study of 2013 as a quasi-natural experiment, combined with panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China during 2000–2017, and applies the difference-in-difference (DID) model to investigate the specific impact and mechanism of the carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS) on energy efficiency. The results, which and passed a series of robustness tests, showed that the carbon ETS can significantly improve single-factor energy efficiency and total-factor energy efficiency. The effect mechanism test showed that the carbon ETS can improve energy efficiency by promoting technological innovation of enterprises, and that the marketization level enhanced the carbon ETS's promotion of energy efficiency. Furthermore, this study measures the energy rebound effect at the macro level in China. The results showed that the average energy rebound effect in China is 79.94%. Once the carbon emission trading pilot work was officially launched, the energy rebound effect of the pilot provinces was significantly higher than that of the non-pilot provinces, and the energy conservation effect of the carbon ETS did not function as expected. The research conclusions of this paper provide empirical evidence and policy inspiration for China to improve energy efficiency and accelerate the process of energy conservation.

Financing for energy efficiency solutions to mitigate opportunity cost of coal consumption: An empirical analysis of Chinese industries.

This study measures the energy rebound effects of Chinese energy and coal power use in Chineseenergy-intensive industries by using latent class stochastic frontiermodels like LMDI, and othervarious econometric estimation approach for coal-supplying regions in China rangingbetween 1992 and 2018. The findings reveals that China's coal sector's average capacity consumption is 0.81%, with a pattern of first increasing and then decreasing, falling to 0.68% in 2016specifically. The coal capacity operation rate concerning low as well as depleted regions is generally strong, with limited space for expansion. In 2015 and 2016, the utilization rate of coal production potential in moderate-producing areas fell about 42%. Economic development variables affect the capacity utilization levels of moderate, weak, and depleted generating regions. At the same time, the price volatility cannot induce a practical improvement in the ability utilization rate, which means that China's coal industry is mainly un-marketized. China's energy efficiency increased about 19.98% among 2000 and 2016, while the rapidest expansion pattern has been noted in the eastern province at 39.86%, next to central (11.71%) and western regions (9.59%). The take back impact via the renewable energy and renewable productivity channels is estimated as 12.34% and 25.40%, respectively. Therefore, the take back impact is of significant importance regarding energy preservation, as China's cumulative renewable energy use is equal to China's aggregate energy use. On such findings, recent research also contributed by presenting novel policy implications for key stakeholders.

Urban Residential Energy Demand and Rebound Effect in China: A Stochastic Energy Demand Frontier Approach

The energy rebound effect is a potential threat to energy-saving targets based on energy efficiency improvements. This paper employs a stochastic energy demand frontier model to analyze the energy demand and rebound effect in China’s urban residential sector. Using a panel data set of 30 Chinese provincial-level regions over the period 2001-2014, for the first time, we investigate the degrees and determinants of China’s urban residential energy demand and energy rebound effect.The results show that residents’ income level, energy price, temperature deviation, population scale, household size, and district heating system are significant influencing factors of residential energy consumption. Regarding the energy rebound effect, we find that energy price is negatively correlated with the rebound effect, and an inverted U-shaped relationship between residents’ income level and rebound-effect size exists. The magnitude of the rebound effect varies across regions, with an average of 65.4%. The main policy implication generated by this study is that it should be in urgent need of energy pricing reform to mitigate the rebound effect in China.

The energy rebound effect of residential buildings: Evidence from urban and rural areas in China

Technological progress in energy efficiency is generally considered as an effective measure to address climate change issues. However, the expected results of such progress might be impacted by the rebound effect. Employing the linear approximation of the Almost Ideal Demand System (LA-AIDS) model, this paper aims to measure the direct rebound effect of residential buildings, considering the differences in the rebound effect for residential buildings between urban and rural China over the period 1994–2016. The empirical results reveal the magnitudes of direct rebound effect for residential energy consumption. The anticipated energy savings in residential buildings cannot be fully achieved in either urban or rural areas, and even significant “back-fire” effect exists in rural China. More specifically, the magnitudes of the rebound effect for residential buildings in urban areas fluctuate between 79.43% and 110.00%, while that in rural areas increase from 115.28% to 120.40%. The main reason of rebound effect is that the energy demand for residential buildings would increase when energy efficiency improves. This study provides a significant reference for the formulation of more targeted policies to achieve the anticipated energy savings, such as development of energy efficiency education program for urban residents and clean energy project for rural residents.

Study on Total Factor Energy Efficiency and Energy Rebound Effect in BTH Urban Agglomeration

Study on Total Factor Energy Efficiency and Energy Rebound Effect in BTH Urban Agglomeration

Analysis on the Rebound Effect of Cold Chain Logistics Energy

Cold chain logistics is a low temperature supply chain system that combines the refrigeration industry and logistics. Refrigerated transportation, cold storage, cold chain connection points and other auxiliary activities will cause a certain amount of energy consumption, and related technologies, management, equipment and facilities, Cold storage layout, etc. are all factors that affect energy consumption. Based on this research background, the research on the energy rebound effect of cold chain logistics is based on three aspects: definition, mechanism and empirical test. Based on the endogenous economic growth model, labour-enhancing technological progress and material cold chain logistics are introduced. Based on the assumption of long-term changes in capital, by constructing an invariable substitution elastic function, a theoretical model of the energy rebound effect of cold chain logistics is established, and the calculation formula for the energy rebound effect of cold chain logistics in the long and short term is obtained.

Energy rebound effect associated with energy efficiency: an application to China’s agricultural sector

With the process of agricultural modernization, energy consumption in China’s agriculture has increased significantly these years. Based on this context, this study tries to investigate the rebound effect of China's agricultural energy consumption, and how the popularization of agricultural machinery impacts on energy rebound rate. Elasticity analysis and data envelopment analysis based on meta-frontier are used to conduct the research, which can make the energy rebound rate more accurate compared with previous studies. Some important findings are obtained based on these methods. First, it confirms that the energy consumption in China’s agricultural sector has significant rebound effect due to technical progress, which averages 0.7215 in short term and 0.5283 in long term. This indicates that the improvement of energy efficiency can only achieve 27.85 and 47.17% of the expected energy-saving target in the short and long term. Second, there is a distinct difference in energy rebound rate in China’s different regions, the eastern area has been always far ahead of central and western regions, which implies that it is more difficult for eastern region to achieve energy saving relying on technological progress. Third, the population of mechanization increased the energy rebound rate by 0.0002 temporarily and 0.0004 permanently in the research sample. Based on these research results, some important policy implications are recommended to reduce energy rebound rate for China’s agricultural sector.

The Calculation and Prediction of China's Energy Rebound Effect Based on the LMDI and SVAR Models

The Calculation and Prediction of China's Energy Rebound Effect Based on the LMDI and SVAR Models

Towards energy conservation by improving energy efficiency? Evidence from China’s metallurgical industry

Traditionally, improving the energy efficiency is considered to be essential to energy saving. However, it may not be as effective as expected due to the rebound effect. Focusing on China’s metallurgical industry, this study is targeted to measure the energy rebound effect and investigate whether improving energy efficiency can promote energy saving. A dynamic energy efficiency index, which can take both technological progress and energy utilization efficiency into account is first calculated. Then, the energy rebound effect of China’s metallurgical industry from the substitution and output channels is measured, and a better understanding of the energy rebound effect is thus provided. Finally, the influence of energy rebound effect on energy conservation potential is explored. Three main findings are obtained: First, the rebound effect through the substitution channel and output channel in the metallurgical industry are 12.34% and 25.4%, respectively. Second, the energy rebound effect in Eastern China is the largest, followed by Central and Western China. Third, the physical quantities of energy being offset by the rebound effect in China’s metallurgical industry are estimated to be 275.7 million tons of standard coal. These results demonstrate that additional measures should be taken in conjunction with energy efficiency improvement policies.

The rebound effect on energy efficiency improvements in China’s transportation sector: A CGE analysis

Energy use is becoming more efficient due to technological innovations. We focused on the transportation sector in China to develop a national multisector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for analyzing the rebound effect from an improvement of 10% in the energy efficiency. We compared the size of the energy rebound effect at both the macroeconomic and sectoral levels in different transportation modal subsectors, namely rail, road, water, and air travel. The findings showed that the magnitude of the rebound effect varies across the transportation modes. This is particularly true for the air transportation sector, which has an economy-wide rebound effect of 30.1% and an own-sector rebound effect of 74.6% because of a sharp increase in the export demand for air transport services. We also quantitatively evaluated the contribution of energy efficiency improvement in the transportation sector to China’s economic growth and carbon reductions and found a positive dividend effect on the economy as well as the environment. The modeling results suggest that improving overall transportation energy efficiency by 10% generates an economy-wide welfare gain of approximately 29 billion yuan, while 19 billion yuan are attributable to a more efficient road transportation subsector. Furthermore, to offset the effects of these mode-specific rebound effects, we simulated the effectiveness of different policies and solutions. These included economic instruments in the form of energy, environmental, and carbon taxes, household transport consumption structure adjustments, and energy structure adjustments. This study revealed that combining these sustainable development policies offers opportunities for economy-wide multisectoral improvements in energy savings, emissions reduction, and economic benefits.

Study on the impact of energy rebound effect on carbon emission reduction at different stages of urbanization in China

Analyzing the influence of energy rebound effect on carbon emissions at different urbanization stages is of great significance to improve the effectiveness of emission reduction polices. In this paper, the energy rebound effect is classified into the short-term energy rebound effect and the long-term energy rebound effect. Based on the environmental Kuznets curve, the nonlinear programming model of urbanization, energy rebound effect and carbon emissions is established to analyzed the influence mechanism of energy rebound effect on carbon emissions at different stages of urbanization. We further discuss how to avoid the impact of energy rebound effect on carbon emission reduction. The results show that: (1) The influence of short-term energy rebound effect on carbon emissions is greater than long-term energy rebound effect, and both of them decrease with the increase of urbanization rate. (2) The “discretionary” and “hitchhiking” behavior of local governments in formulating environmental policies will lead to the “Matthew Effect” of energy rebound effect. (3) Investment bias and factor market distortion could increase energy rebound effect, and they have obvious substitution effect. (4) The decentralization of power by local governments is an effective measure to suppress energy rebound effect. The analysis above could help local governments to formulate policies, suppressing the influence of energy rebound effect and promoting carbon emission reduction.

Urban carbon emission intensity under emission trading system in a developing economy: evidence from 273 Chinese cities.

The international community has generally recognized the key role of developing countries' cities in reducing carbon emissions, an elemental way to mitigate climate change. However, few have empirically analyzed the impact of market-based instruments such as emission trading system on urban carbon emissions in developing economies. This paper examines the effect of China's pilot carbon trading markets, the first emission trading system in developing economies, on cities' carbon intensity. We also explore the mechanism by which the emission trading system achieves its influence. The PSM-DID method is used to analyze the panel data including China's 273 prefecture-level cities from 2010 to 2016. The results illustrate that the emission trading system significantly decreased pilot cities' carbon intensity and this effect endured; as time progressed, the reduction effect was increasing. Through mediating effect analysis, we find that the emission trading system reduced the carbon intensity via increasing the proportion of tertiary industry output value in GDP and decreasing the energy intensity. Overall, the empirical results suggest that the Chinese government should drive the establishment and improvement of a national carbon market, proactively adjust industry structure, and consider the possible influence caused by the potential energy rebound effect.

Direct and Indirect Energy Rebound Effects in German Households: A Linearized Almost Ideal Demand System Approach

We estimate direct and indirect energy rebound effects for a wide variety of goods and services in Germany. To this end, we employ a linearized approximation of the popular Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) approach suggested by Deaton and Muellbauer (1980). Excluding measures of energy efficiency when estimating rebound can lead to biased results. We compensate for this shortcoming of previous research by explicitly accounting for energy efficiency in our estimations. Using data for Germany from 1970 to 2017, we find moderate direct and significant indirect rebound effects for different energy carriers across four model specifications. The size of the rebound effect proves to be sensitive to the expenditure shares used for the calculations, which in some cases leads to negative overall rebound estimates.

A modified and improved method to measure economy-wide carbon rebound effects based on the PDA-MMI approach

Although energy technological progress has been regarded as an important driver for reducing carbon emissions, the existence of carbon rebound effect prevents a portion of the potential carbon reductions to be realized. Compared with the energy rebound effect, research on the carbon rebound effect is scarce because it is always equated with the energy rebound effect. However, the carbon rebound effect is more complex. Given that the traditional method for carbon rebound effect assessment only reflects energy rebound effects, our study proposed an improved production-theoretical decomposition analysis (PDA)-Meta-frontier Malmquist index (MMI)-based method and explored carbon rebound effects in China from 2006 to 2015. Our results show that (1) the eastern and western regions faced fewer carbon rebound effect risks compared with those of the central region due to decreasing emission intensity associated with energy technological progress; (2) the reductions in emission intensity in the eastern region relied both on coal and non-coal technology, whereas the western region only relied on coal technology; and (3) the non-coal technology in the eastern region was at the meta-frontier, whereas the non-coal technology of other regions exhibited catch-up effects.

Can energy conservation and substitution mitigate CO2 emissions in electricity generation? Evidence from Middle East and North Africa

This study objectively investigates the influence of energy conservation and substitution strategies in mitigating CO2 emissions in the electricity generation sector in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The paper specifically explores if climate action implementation may negatively affect energy consumption on economic growth ambition and whether technical change in factor and inter-fuel substitution support in achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs) 7, 8 &13. This paper conducts the study under the life cycle analysis (LCA) procedure. We also apply stochastic frontier Translog production and ridge regression techniques with data for 2000–2015. The results currently show that renewable energy intensity falls below the breakeven level. Meanwhile, nonrenewable energy intensity is much higher. Furthermore, production factors and inter-fuel technological change show that capital-energy and renewable-nonrenewable energy are perfect substitutes under the electricity sector. Moreover, the findings reveal low energy efficiency of 40 percent with poor carbon performance. We, therefore, conclude that MENA region may not achieve cleaner, affordable energy and climate action concurrently with economic growth under the current production technologies by the fiscal year 2030. We further conclude that economic growth is presently inversely related to energy efficiency but positively with energy intensity. This suggests that MENA region economic growth drive is highly linked with nonrenewable consumption and also not supporting energy conservation strategies. Additionally, we conclude that energy efficiency improvement and reduction in energy intensity may not be achieved as the governments keep subsidizing electricity in the region. Besides, the more policymakers pursue economic growth through energy intensity indicators, the more energy is consumed through the energy rebound effects. Based on these findings and conclusions, we recommend insightful strategies under the electricity sector. This study adds new body of knowledge by extending Translog production to estimate energy intensity & efficiency under the LCA procedure. Scholars also contribute to data and variable modeling under the SDGs in discovering CO2 emission mitigation in the electricity sector which could be replicated in other countries or regions.