Energy Price Fluctuations Research Articles

Evaluation of Biomass Energy Policy Implementation in Indonesia to National Defense Support

Biomass energy is recognized as having strategic potential in overcoming energy security challenges and its participation to reduce the impact of environmental problems. The research-purpose is to evaluate how implementing a biomass energy policy can support national defense and sustainability. Through the framework of the literature, this study describes the concept of biomass energy and examines its relation to national defense. Energy policy analysis and reversed with energy security in Indonesia are also obtained from the reflection of the literature. The results show that biomass energy can strengthen the security of a country's energy supply by diversifying energy sources and reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels. This will support the operational defense system in dealing with fluctuations in energy prices and supplies. The implementation of biomass energy also has the potential to increase national energy independence, reduce the risk of energy supply disruptions, and strengthen national resilience. Utilization of biomass energy also contributes to improving climate change and negative environmental impacts. With the right technology, reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved, supporting environmental sustainability goals and securing the future of national defense

Global uncertainties, geopolitical risks and price exuberance: Evidence from international energy market

AbstractThe interaction of global uncertainty and geopolitical risks with energy price fluctuations has remained a critical global issue. This interaction can impact several regions' macroeconomic performance and welfare by making fundamental energy price forecasting more difficult, which may lead to exuberant behaviour. To help producers, consumers, and regulators make informed decisions in the face of volatile and uncertain energy markets, it is critical to highlight how these uncertainties influence price exuberance. In this light, this study examines the impact of global uncertainty and geopolitical risks on international energy price exuberance using monthly data from January 1990 to October 2022. The study employs supremum augmented Dickey–Fuller (SADF) and generalised augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) tests to identify energy price exuberance. Firstly, consistent with exuberant behaviour, the tests identify seven episodes of explosive behaviour in the international energy prices within the sample. Secondly, this study applies the Logit model to estimate the impact of global uncertainty and geopolitical risks on price exuberance. The estimates suggest that the heightening of global uncertainty may deflate the price exuberance. This study also observes that adverse geopolitical risks (threats and acts) in the world and Ukraine amplify the likelihood of price exuberance in the market. However, adverse geopolitical risk (GPR) in Russia negatively impacted the formation of price exuberance. This finding implies that policymakers can use global uncertainty and geopolitical risks as early warning indicators of probable price exuberance in the international energy market. The findings also indicate the need for a buffer system and safe passage for the flow of energy supply in a geopolitical conflict or a major global event. The study further shows the need for a coordinated effort in innovation, research, and development to enhance energy efficiency and minimise reliance on fossil fuels, which these uncertainties may not significantly influence.

Exploring the potential of the carbon credit program for hedging energy prices in Brazil

The transition to a low-carbon economy is imperative to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and mitigate pollution emissions. This preposition also aligns with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs-13), which highlight the climate change action. In this vein, Brazil has implemented the Decarbonization Credit (CBIOS) program to incentivize biofuel production and promote environmental sustainability through carbon credit emissions. To this end, the present study evaluates the effectiveness of the CBIO contract as a hedging tool for investors in the face of energy price fluctuations and decarbonization efforts. Specifically, we employ conditional dynamic correlation (DCC-GARCH) and optimal hedge ratio (HR) techniques to assess the relationship between CBIO and the futures and spot prices of sugar, oil, and ethanol. Our findings suggest that the current CBIO contract is not an effective hedge against energy spot and future prices. However, our analysis identifies a strengthening correlation between ethanol traded in Chicago and CBIO over time, highlighting the potential for an underlying contract to serve as an effective hedging tool in the future. Our study adds to the existing literature on carbon pricing mechanisms and their impact on financial markets, emphasizing the importance of sustainable energy policies and their potential to mitigate the risks associated with energy price volatility and decarbonization efforts.

Marketization of Energy Resources in China: An Environmental CGE Analysis

This study aims to examine the effects of energy price fluctuations on China’s energy-environment-economy system under different scenarios. To achieve this, a computable general equilibrium model is constructed using the 2020 macroeconomic SAM table and microeconomic SAM tables that encompass 8 energy sectors and 13 intermediate sectors. The model is utilized to analyze the impacts of various policies on variables within the energy-environment-economy system. The findings indicate that an increase in energy prices will lead to a contraction effect on multiple industrial sectors and the overall macroeconomy. Higher energy prices result in elevated prices, reduced output, decreased investment, and decreased consumer spending across most industrial sectors, negatively affecting the macroeconomy. However, government regulation of secondary energy prices can mitigate the influence of primary energy prices on the national economy. Such regulation hinders the transmission of primary energy price fluctuations to downstream industrial chains, thereby alleviating its impact on different sectors and the macroeconomy to varying extents. In order to mitigate the adverse effects of energy price fluctuations, it is crucial to reduce energy consumption while promoting economic growth and enhancing resident welfare. This paper presents relevant measures and suggestions to address these challenges.

The Impact of Global Energy Price Volatility on Oil Derivative and Local Price in Jordan: Using DCC-GARCH Model

The central aim of this study is to evaluate the repercussions of global energy price fluctuations on the pricing of local oil derivatives in Jordan, and their subsequent impact on domestic price levels. This research seeks to propose risk mitigation strategies to address the challenges posed by energy price volatility, offering valuable insights for Jordanian policymakers. Given the dearth of understanding among policymakers and industry stakeholders regarding the economic ramifications of global energy prices on local markets, this study posits a statistically significant relationship, at a 5% significance level, between global energy prices, local oil derivative prices, and the prices of commodities and services. To investigate these dynamics, the study employs a DCC-GARCH (Dynamic Conditional Correlation Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) model, utilizing monthly data spanning from Jan:2008 to Mar:2022, encompassing global energy prices, local energy prices, and the consumer price index. The study's findings reveal that fluctuations in global oil prices, specifically the Brent benchmark, have a discernible impact on local oil derivative prices in Jordan. However, the reverse causal relationship is not supported, indicating a unidirectional link from oil prices to oil derivatives. The estimated DCC-GARCH model further quantifies this connection, demonstrating that a 1% increase in Brent oil prices corresponds to a 0.21% increase in local oil derivative prices within Jordan. Moreover, a 1% uptick in local oil derivative prices corresponds to a 0.23% increase in the consumer price index. Based on these research outcomes, it is strongly recommended that measures be explored to effectively manage the volatility of oil derivative prices in Jordan. The implementation of such measures holds the potential to bolster local price stability and foster a more resilient economic environment.

A Novel Deterministic Probabilistic Forecasting Framework for Gold Price with a New Pandemic Index Based on Quantile Regression Deep Learning and Multi-Objective Optimization

The significance of precise gold price forecasting is accentuated by its financial attributes, mirroring global economic conditions, market uncertainties, and investor risk aversion. However, predicting the gold price is challenging due to its inherent volatility, influenced by multiple factors, such as COVID-19, financial crises, geopolitical issues, and fluctuations in other metals and energy prices. These complexities often lead to non-stationary time series, rendering traditional time series modeling methods inadequate. Our paper presents a multi-objective optimization algorithm that refines the interval prediction framework with quantile regression deep learning in response to this issue. This framework comprehensively responds to gold’s financial market dynamics and uncertainties with a screening process of various factors, including pandemic-related indices, geopolitical indices, the US dollar index, and prices of various commodities. The quantile regression deep-learning models optimized by multi-objective optimization algorithms deliver robust, interpretable, and highly accurate predictions for handling non-linear relationships and complex data structures and enhance the overall predictive performance. The results demonstrate that the QRBiLSTM model, optimized using the MOALO algorithm, delivers excellent forecasting performance. The composite indicator AIS reaches −15.6240 and −11.5581 at 90% and 95% confidence levels, respectively. This underscores the model’s high forecasting accuracy and its potential to provide valuable insights for assessing future trends in gold prices. The deterministic and probabilistic forecasting framework for gold prices captures the market dynamics with the new pandemic index and comprehensively sets a new benchmark for predictive modeling in volatile market commodities like gold.

A two-stage robust configuration optimization framework for integrated energy system considering multiple uncertainties

The optimal configuration of integrated energy system (IES) is the cornerstone of efficient investment and low-carbon operation, which is of high importance for realizing energy system sustainable transformation. Yet, the intermittency of renewable energy and uncertainty of multiple energy demands pose severe challenges to IES configuration and operation. To address the issue, this research presents a two-stage robust configuration optimization model incorporating the multiple uncertainties of supply and demand. The model takes economic benefits, environmental benefits and energy utilization efficiency as objective functions, and is executed by column and constraint generation algorithm. A case study justifies the proposed model. The findings indicate the uncertainty from renewable energy and demand raises the equipment capacity and results in an increase of investment cost. Contrasted with the deterministic scenario, the total costs in the uncertainty scenario increase from 7043795.8CNY to 7785296CNY, but the performance shows more robust and the loss of load penalty is saved up to 296888CNY. Sensitivity analysis reveals energy price fluctuations primarily impair the operating costs, whereas they cause moderate effects on the configuration results. Load fluctuations cause greater consequences on both configuration and operating costs. The research provides references for IES configuration under multiple uncertainties with renewable energy penetration.

Energy price bubbles and extreme price movements: Evidence from China's coal market

This study investigates the factors behind the extreme price movements in China's coal market, with a particular focus on the impact of climate risk and energy transition in recent years. The Generalized Sup Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) method is employed to detect coal price bubbles, and a dynamic model averaging (DMA) approach is then used to analyze the causes of these price bubbles. The findings reveal that price bubbles in the Chinese coal market are mainly triggered by fluctuations in international energy prices. The extreme prices are rooted in supply-demand imbalances resulting from energy transition, economic development, and geopolitical conflicts. Policies aimed at adjusting coal supplies can effectively mitigate abnormal coal price fluctuations in China, while normal coal price fluctuations are significantly influenced by changes in energy demand driven by macroeconomic development. During the green transition towards renewable energy, the current high prices of fossil energy present challenges to China's energy supply security but also offer opportunities for the development of the renewable energy market. However, energy transition has facilitated the spread of price bubbles across coal, natural gas, and renewable energy markets, potentially leading to contagion effects.

The dynamic nexus of oil price fluctuations and banking sector in China: A continuous wavelet analysis

The fluctuations in World and national energy prices and energy policies might affect the financial and real sectors. This paper focuses on the nexus between oil prices and bank credits in China through continuous wavelet analyses in the following distinct ways. First, we observe the potential effects of oil prices on Chinese claims on the private sector by following the whole sample data, and, sub-samples of the data. Secondly, we account for higher and lower frequencies for sub-samples and the whole sample in the dynamic interaction between oil prices and Chinese claims on the private sector. Thirdly, this study provides more insight into understanding the influence of oil prices on the supply of credits through time-varying estimations at different scales (frequencies). The continuous wavelet analyses demonstrate a positive impact of Chinese oil prices on the Chinese claims on the private sector from 1999:06 to 2019:02 at a 3-8-year cycle which corresponds to the full liberalization of the Chinese domestic oil market. The positive effect of the world oil price on claims on the private sector is, however, restricted only for the sub-period 2005–2012 due to a relatively lower degree of regulation of the Chinese domestic market during this sub-period.

Research on the Impact of the "Belt and Road" Initiative on Energy Prices

The introduction of the "Belt and Road" initiative has played a significant driving role, propelling the economic and social development of countries along its route. Energy resources stand as pivotal elements for the economies, core industries, and crucial revenue sources of nations along the "Belt and Road," and fluctuations in their prices inevitably impact policy planning, infrastructure, institutional arrangements, and financial investments among these countries. Building upon this context, this paper first outlines the current energy situation of countries along the "Belt and Road," and, in conjunction with regional energy trade and energy industry characteristics, comprehensively and systematically evaluates the influencing factors of energy price fluctuations under the "Belt and Road" initiative. Based on the analysis above, this paper proposes measures to enhance price competitiveness and provides an outlook on China's future energy pricing situation. This study's holistic analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on energy prices in countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative will, to a certain extent, contribute to the theoretical research on regional energy consumption, offering theoretical guidance for the sustainable development of energy in Chinese cities.

ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF AZERBAIJAN'S FUEL AND ENERGY RESOURCES AND ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC-ECOLOGICAL SITUATION

Azerbaijan attracts attention as a country with rich energy resources. This study analyzes the economic characteristics of Azerbaijan's fuel and energy resources and the economic-ecological situation of these resources. Azerbaijan's oil and natural gas reserves have contributed greatly to the country's economic growth. While oil and natural gas production accounts for a large share of foreign trade revenues, the energy sector has increased employment and stimulated industrial growth. However, this growth in the energy sector has also brought environmental impacts. Oil and natural gas production has led to environmental problems such as depletion of natural resources, water pollution and air pollution. At the same time, excessive dependence on energy resources has made Azerbaijan vulnerable to fluctuations in international energy prices. This study examines Azerbaijan's energy policies and environmental sustainability efforts, emphasizing the importance of using energy resources more sustainably. Azerbaijan should focus on policy changes and investments to direct its energy sector in a way that protects the environment and sustains economic growth. This requires striking a balance that aims to minimize environmental impacts while preserving the long-term economic benefits of energy resources. Keywords: Azerbaijan, Fuel and Energy Resources, Economy, Ecology, Analysis, Oil, Natural Gas, Economic Growth, Environmental Impacts.

Assessment of Batteries’ Contribution for Optimal Self-Sufficiency in Large Building Complexes

The EU has set ambitious targets to combat climate change. Incorporating renewable energy technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is a critical aspect of achieving the European Union’s (EU) 2030 climate goals. Similarly to all member countries of the EU, Greece shares the same climate goals. In order to achieve these goals, ensuring a consistent supply and the effective use of clean energy is pursued, as it has a significant impact on the sustainable development and growth of the country. As the Greek tourism sector is one of the most energy-consuming of the national economy and a major contributor to the country’s GDP, opportunities are presented for innovation and investment in sustainable practices. Such investments must focus on buildings and facilities, where the energy consumption is concentrated. One of the most popular holiday destinations in Greece is the island of Crete. Visitation patterns are seasonal, which means during the summer months, Crete is exceptionally popular and more demanding energy-wise. One of the highest energy-demanding types of tourism-based businesses is the hospitality industry. Energy demands in hotels are driven by factors such as heating, cooling, lighting, and hot water. Thus, such activities require thermal and electrical energy to function. Electrical energy is one of the most essential forms of energy for hotels, as it powers a wide range of critical systems and services throughout the establishment. Therefore, the hotels are highly susceptible to fluctuations in energy prices which can significantly impact the operational costs of hotels. This paper presents an analysis of the annual consumption for the year of 2022 of five hotels located in Crete. An algorithm is also implemented which strives to minimize the capital expenditure (CAPEX), while ensuring a sufficient percentage of self-sufficiency.

Revisiting the Relationship between Energy Price Fluctuations, Forestry, Environmental Governance, and Energy Transition on Carbon Emissions: Evidence from Indonesia

This paper summarizes the role of energy price fluctuation, forestry, environmental governance, and energy transition on carbon emissions. Since, industrialization and population growth, both are the factors which according to literature are culprits of environmental pollution or sometimes benefits the environment, hence, the contradictory statement of scholars urges the authors to introduce these two variables as a control variable in proposed framework. To analyze the time series data in the time span of 1986-2019, the study used DARDL approach and from the results it has been revealed that energy price fluctuation, forestry, environmental governance, environmental governance, energy transition and population growth increases environmental protection by reducing harmful emission. Based on the results, an empirical baseline is provided to policy makers to strategize their agenda and promote the usage of renewable resources.

Cash Flow Sensitivity Analysis of Energy Companies

If financial markets are efficient, companies can easily access finance. However, due to market frictions in financial markets, it is often not easy to find suitable financing sources for investments. As a result of the market frictions, the growth of national economies slows down. In this study, this problem will be addressed for energy companies. In other words, we examine whether energy companies are faced with financial constraints using the data of energy companies in 13 selected countries between the years 2010-2021. The results show that cash flows created by energy companies in 7 countries are effective in financing their investments. High cash flows and increased investments resulting from fluctuations in energy prices may also indicate that companies exhibit excessive investment behavior due to agency problems. On the other hand, all stakeholders need to make timely investments in the energy sector compared to other industries to support energy policies and increase social welfare.

Power-to-Gas for energy system flexibility under uncertainty in demand, production and price

The growing penetration of non-programmable renewable energy sources and the consequent fluctuations in energy prices and availability lead to the need to enhance energy system flexibility and synergies between different energy vectors. This can be reached through sector integration. Among the most relevant technologies used for this purpose, Power-to-Gas systems allow excess renewable electricity to be converted directly into fuels that can be then stored or used. A smart energy system, however, which includes these innovative solutions, requires intelligent management methods to optimize its operation. This work investigates the operational strategy of energy systems integrated with Power-to-Gas solutions for seasonal storage, by developing an optimization model for the system, formulated as Mixed-Integer Linear Programming problem. The algorithm tackles the uncertain nature of future disturbances, such as energy needs, generation and price using two-stage stochastic programming. The algorithm is tested on grid-connected and 100% renewable energy supply case studies. The novel stochastic algorithm allows a more robust optimization compared to a deterministic optimization, and system management is ensured under several future disturbances realization. Furthermore, the integration of Power-to-Gas solutions warrants the energy security of the energy systems and acts as a buffer to forestall unpredictable behavior of the disturbances.

Examining the trade-offs in clean energy provision: Focusing on the relationship between technology transfer, renewable energy, industrial growth, and carbon footprint reduction

Sustainable energy mitigates climate change by reducing reliance on coal and oil for power generation, curbing global warming. It addresses environmental concerns and yields economic benefits—reduced fossil fuel dependence, financial inclusion, productive employment, and economic development. This research examines the impact of regional economic integration on environmental sustainability in 39 high-income European and Central Asian (ECA) nations from 2017 to 2021. Specifically, the study analyzes the influence of green energy demand, technological transfers, and trade openness on carbon emissions. The study employed various estimators, namely, a two-step Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation, quantile regression, and the cointegration panel approach. These estimators were utilized to capture different aspects and dynamics of the research variables. The study finds that regional green programs and trade agreements effectively reduce carbon emissions, while technological advances and industrial output tend to raise them. Granger causality analyses reveal that emissions-led regional development, technical innovation, and trade openness are interconnected factors, and the deployment of renewable energy contributes to carbon emissions. The inter-temporal analysis suggests that regional economic integration factors will likely impact carbon emissions in the following decade. These findings support neoclassical growth theory, new institutional economics, and ecological modernization theory. Developing renewable energy sources in the region can minimize energy price fluctuations, strengthen energy security, and align with the carbon neutrality agenda. This research emphasizes the need for sustainable energy strategies and regional cooperation to foster a greener and more sustainable future.

How do energy price shocks affect global economic stability? Reflection on geopolitical conflicts

The sharp rise of energy prices after the Russia-Ukraine conflict have restricted social activities and economic evolution in the area, and further brought the underlying macroeconomic effects of energy price fluctuations into public view. To examine whether and how the global energy price volatility affects the stable operation of the national economy, we perform econometric analysis on global 69 economies from 2003 to 2019. The regression outcomes insist that: (1) the price volatility of three kinds of energy has a substantial restraint impact on economic growth behaviors, among which the natural gas price has the most prominent effect; (2) the impacts of frequent energy prices shocks on economic stability significantly vary among different economic organizations, which are more pronounced for the sub-samples of non-B&RI, OECD, and RCEP countries; (3) the fluctuation of three energy prices is a vital factor affecting economic growth at any quantile level, and its impact on economic growth is most prominent in the high quantile range; and (4) industrial upgrading plays an intermediary role in the energy price-economic stability nexus; in other words, industrial upgrading is regarded as a plausible channel that links energy prices with economic stability. Hence, some policy implications on adjusting energy price mechanism and strengthen economic stability are provided.

Climate risk and carbon emissions: Examining their impact on key energy markets through asymmetric spillovers

The global energy sector faces crucial challenges in the wake of climate change and the escalating emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Recent months have witnessed substantial fluctuations in energy prices, attributed to various factors, including surging demand from emerging economies, geopolitical tensions in regions like Russia and Iran, and progressive efforts to phase out fossil fuels. The alarming pace of climate change is leading to a rise in global temperatures, intensifying severe weather phenomena like droughts and hurricanes. In this context, this empirical research article aims to explore the asymmetric spillovers of climate risk and carbon emissions uncertainty on key energy markets, namely natural gas, electricity, coal, oil, and diesel. Employing the time- and frequency-domain methodologies introduced by Diebold and Yilmaz (2014) and Baruník and Kˇrehlík (2018) (BK), we conduct an in-depth analysis of the monthly and daily frequency of climate policy uncertainty (CPU) and carbon emissions (CO), respectively. These measurements allow us to assess the time-varying spillover effects, directional spillovers, net directional spillovers, and connectedness network across short-term (1–3 months), medium-term (3–6 months), and long-term horizons (6 months-inf). Our research outcomes reveal that, based on the BK framework, the overall connectedness for CO and energy prices is most pronounced at the 3–6 months horizon, with a magnitude of 39.01%. For the CPU-based model, the overall connectedness exhibits an increasing trend over time, ranging from 33.84% for 1 month to 47.91% for 6 months and beyond. Furthermore, our investigation indicates that CPU predominantly serves as a net transmitter to energy prices for 1–3 months, whereas the net transmission of CO varies across different time frames. Specifically, CO acts as a net transmission for natural gas (NG) for 1 month and 1–3 months, while for 3–6 months, CO emerges as a net transmitter for WTI crude (WTI) and Brent Oil (BRENT). In addition, the results of the frequency-based Granger causality analysis demonstrate that CPU Granger causes NG, WTI, and BRENT for all frequencies, while CO Granger causes NG, WTI, BRENT, and ULS diesel (ULSD) across all frequencies. The implications of our findings are particularly significant for policymakers and energy importers, urging them to differentiate their short- and long-term strategies and procurement contracts. In the long run, policymakers should be cognizant of the influence of climate change and emissions on energy demand, while formulating prudent policies and sustainability initiatives.

The effect of global energy price fluctuations on oil derivative prices and domestic prices in Jordan: GARCH model

تهدف الدراسة بِشكل رئيسي إلى قياس مدى انعكاس تقلُّبات أسعار الطاقة العالمية على أسعار الُمشتَّقات النفطية المحلية، وقياس مدى انعكاس تقلبات أسعار المشتقات النفطية المحلَّية على الأسَعار المحلية، والمساهمةُ في إيجاد حلول تُقّلل من مخاطر تقلبات أسعار الطاقة وتقديمها لواضعي السياسةالاقتصادية في الأردن. وذلك في ضوء عدم وجود تصور واضح لدى صانعي السَّياسة والمنتجين حول التوقعات الاقتِصادِيَّة لأسعار الطاقة العالمية ومدى انعكاسها على الأسعار المحلية، اذ تفترض الدراسة وجود أثر ذو دلالة إحصائية عند مستوى معنوية 5% ما بين أسعار الطَّاقة العالمية وأسعار الطاقة المحلية (المُشتقَّات النفطية) من جانب وأسعار السلع والخدمات من جانب اخر، وتتمثل المنهجية المتبعة في الدراسة بتقدير نموذج GARCH للبيانات الشهرية لأسعار الطاقة العالمية وأسعارالطاقة المحلية والرقم القياسي لأسعار المستهلكين للفترة (2022-2008). وبينت نتائج الدراسة أن أسعار النفط العالمية (برنت) تسبب أسعار المشتقات المحلية بينما العكس لا يسبب أي أن العلاقة أحادية الاتجاه من أسعار النفط إلى المشتقات، كما وبينت تقديرات نموذج GARCH أن ارتفاع أسعار النفط برنت بمقدار 1% يؤدي إلى ارتفاع أسعار المشتقات النفطية في الأردن بمقدار 0.21% وأن ارتفاع أسعار المشتقات النفطية بمقدار 1% يؤدي إلى ارتفاع والرقم القياسي لتكاليف المعيشة بمقدار 0.23%. وتوصي الدراسة البحث عن اليات تقلل من تقلبات أسعار المشتقات النفطية في الأردن سيساهم في تعزيز استقرار الأسعار المحلية.

Study on comprehensive evaluation and countermeasures of natural gas safety in EU

The recent Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused fluctuations in European energy prices and supply. Natural gas possesses a large portion in the Russian European energy trade restricting the industrial and social production of both sides. This paper analyzes the current situation of natural gas security in 27 EU countries based on multiple indicators. A framework of 7 dimensions of natural gas security is introduced, and 13 evaluation indicators are proposed, including a new indicator on natural gas storage. And a mixed model composed of AHP and TOPSIS is utilized to estimate the natural gas security performance of the 27 EU countries. Meanwhile, the overall security of natural gas in the 27 EU countries is ranked based on the determination of the main influencing factors of natural gas security. The results show that accessibility and affordability have the greatest impact on natural gas security. Among the 27 countries, the safest is the Finland, while the worst is Bulgaria. Moreover, the assessment and indicators are beneficial for different countries and regions evaluating natural gas security performance.