Recent research demonstrates that the core features of agricultural and rural transformation in grain-dependent areas of the newly industrializing countries in East and Southeast Asia do not fully align with classical theories and paradigms. However, there is a lack of a theoretical model that illustrates the general patterns of rural evolution and transformation in these areas during structural transformation and outlines their future trajectories. Through case studies of a well-known grain base in China, this paper explores this issue using an analytical framework consisting of the trajectory of agricultural transformation associated with rural residents' livelihood changes and the trajectory of rural community restructuring induced by these livelihood changes. The results show that, since structural transformation, the grain-dependent countryside of China has roughly undergone an evolution from a stage of relative isolation and self-sufficiency, marked by agricultural involution, to a stage of accelerating factor flows between cities and the countryside, marked by part-time livelihoods, and finally to the current stage of accumulating "potential energies" for rural restructuring, marked by population aging. Meanwhile, challenges to the further transformation of the countryside are rooted in the socioeconomic characteristics of the middle-income period, which underscores the significance of overcoming the middle-income trap. Finally, we propose theoretical patterns for the future trajectories of China's grain-dependent countryside through the scenario analysis based on overcoming the middle-income trap and discuss the implications for rural revitalization in these areas.
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