Energy Exascale Earth System Model Research Articles

Incorporating an Interactive Fire Plume‐Rise Model in the DOE's Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 1 (E3SMv1) and Examining Aerosol Radiative Effect

AbstractThe vertical distribution of biomass burning aerosol (BBA) is important in regulating their impacts on weather and climate. The plume‐rise process affects the injection height of BBA and interacts with the air parcel lifting and cloud processes. However, these processes are not represented in most global climate models. In this study, we replaced the fixed vertical profiles of monthly BBA emissions in the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) with an interactive fire plume‐rise model. The vertical distribution of BBA emissions was calculated as a function of ambient thermodynamic conditions from the host E3SMv1, with distributions of fire sizes and sensible heat fluxes derived from the observations. The maximum fire radiative power (FRP) technique was used to determine the fire size. Scaling‐FRP technique is used to calculate the wildfire heat release. Daily BBA emission, superimposed with a fire diurnal cycle retrieved from the satellite observation, was included in model simulations. The model shows improved agreement with satellite retrievals and in situ measurement during the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Wildfire Experiment for Cloud chemistry, Aerosol absorption, and Nitrogen campaign. The model‐observation comparison demonstrates the importance of the plume‐rise model and fire diurnal cycle assumption in determining the BBA fields. We also find that E3SMv1 with new features produces a larger carbonaceous aerosol burden, leading to 0.13 W m−2 warming at the top of atmosphere compared to the default E3SMv1. This highlights the importance of accurately representing the BBA injection height and indicates a no‐linear nature in the BBA‐induced radiative effect.

Representation of atmosphere-induced heterogeneity in land–atmosphere interactions in E3SM–MMFv2

Abstract. In the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF), where parameterizations of convection and turbulence are replaced by a 2-D cloud-resolving model (CRM), there are multiple options to represent land–atmosphere interactions. Here, we propose three different coupling strategies, namely the (1) coupling of a single land surface model to the global grid (MMF), (2) coupling a single land copy directly to the embedded CRM (SFLX2CRM), and (3) coupling a single copy of land model to each column of the CRM grid (MAML). In the MAML (Multi-Atmosphere Multi-Land) framework, a land model is coupled to CRM at the CRM-grid scale by coupling an individual copy of a land model to each CRM grid. Therefore, we can represent intra-CRM heterogeneity in the land–atmosphere interaction processes. There are 5-year global simulations run using these three coupling strategies, and we find some regional differences but overall small changes with respect to whether a land model is coupled to CRM or a global atmosphere. In MAML, the spatial heterogeneity within CRM induces stronger turbulence, which leads to the changes in soil moisture, surface heat fluxes, and precipitation. However, the differences in the MAML from the other two cases are rather weak, suggesting that the impact of using MAML does not justify the increase in cost.

Evaluating Mesoscale Convective Systems Over the US in Conventional and Multiscale Modeling Framework Configurations of E3SMv1

AbstractOrganized mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) contribute a significant amount of precipitation in the Central and Eastern US during spring and summer, which impacts the availability of freshwater and flooding events. However, current global Earth system models cannot capture MCSs well and misrepresent the statistics of precipitation in the region. In this study, we investigate the representation of MCSs in three configurations of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) by tracking individual storms based on outgoing longwave radiation using a new application of TempestExtremes. Our results indicate that conventional parameterizations of convection, implemented in both low (LR; ∼150 km) and high (HR; ∼25 km) resolution configurations, fail to capture almost all MCS‐like events, in‐part because they underestimate high‐level cloud ice associated with deep convection. On the other hand, the multiscale modeling framework (MMF; cloud‐resolving models embedded in each grid‐column of ∼150 km resolution E3SMv1) configuration represents MCSs and their annual cycle better. Nevertheless, relative to observations, the E3SMv1‐MMF spatial distribution of MCSs and associated precipitation is shifted eastward, and the diurnal timing is lagged. A comparison between the large‐scale environment in E3SMv1‐MMF and ERA5 reanalysis suggests that the biases during the summer in E3SMv1‐MMF are associated with biases in low‐level humidity and meridional moisture transport within the low‐level jet. The fact that conventional parameterizations of convection, even with high‐resolution, cannot capture MCSs over the US suggests that methods with explicit representation of kilometer‐scale convective organization, such as the MMF, may be necessary for improving the simulation of these convective systems.

Evaluation of present-day extreme precipitation over the United States: an inter-comparison of convection and dynamic permitting configurations of E3SMv1

Accurate simulation of the present-day characteristics of mean and extreme precipitation at regional scales remains a challenge for Earth system models, which is due in part to deficiencies in model physics such as convective parameterization (CP), and coarse resolution. High horizontal resolution (HR, ∼25 km) and multiscale modeling framework (MMF, i.e. replacing conventional CP with embedded km-scale cloud-resolving models) are two promising directions that could help improve the interaction between subgrid-scale physical processes and large-scale climate. Here, we evaluate simulated extreme precipitation over the United States (US) across three configurations (i.e. low-resolution [LR], HR, and MMF) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) and intercompare them against two gridded observation datasets (climate prediction center daily US precipitation and integrated multi-satellite retrievals for global precipitation measurement). We assess the model’s ability to simulate very heavy seasonal precipitation (illustrated by the difference between the 99th and 90th percentile values) as well as the spatial distributions of several extreme precipitation indices defined by the expert team on climate change detection and indices. Our results show that both the dry (i.e. consecutive dry days (CDD)) and wet (i.e. consecutive wet days, maximum 5 day precipitation, and very wet days) extremes evaluated herein show some improvement as well as degradation with MMF and HR relative to LR. These results vary across seasons and US subregions. For instance, only the very heavy precipitation of winter is improved with MMF and HR. Both configurations alleviate the well-known drizzling bias evident in LR across both winter and summer in many parts of the US, largely due to the overall improvement in intensity and frequency of precipitation. Additionally, our results suggest that while E3SMv1-MMF has higher intensity rates when it does rain, it has too many CDD during the summer, contributing to a low mean precipitation bias.

The 1996 Mid-Atlantic Winter Flood: Exploring Climate Risk through a Storyline Approach

Abstract This article explores the application of thermodynamic perturbations to a historical midlatitude, wintertime, rain-on-snow flood event to evaluate how similar events may evolve under different climate forcings. In particular, we generate a hindcast of the 1996 Mid-Atlantic flood using an ensemble of 14-km variable-resolution simulations completed with the U.S. Department of Energy’s global Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We show that the event is skillfully reproduced over the Susquehanna River Basin (SRB) by E3SM when benchmarked against in situ observational data and high-resolution reanalyses. In addition, we perform five counterfactual experiments to simulate the flood under preindustrial conditions and four different levels of warming as projected by the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble. We find a nonlinear response in simulated surface runoff and streamflow as a function of atmospheric warming. This is attributed to changing contributions of liquid water input from a shallower initial snowpack (decreased snowmelt), increased surface temperatures and rainfall rates, and increased soil water storage. Flooding associated with this event peaks from around +1 to +2 K of global average surface warming and decreases with additional warming beyond this. There are noticeable timing shifts in peak runoff and streamflow associated with changes in the flashiness of the event. This work highlights the utility of using storyline approaches for communicating climate risk and demonstrates the potential nonlinearities associated with hydrologic extremes in areas that experience ephemeral snowpack, such as the SRB.

Regional and Teleconnected Impacts of Solar Radiation‐Topography Interaction Over the Tibetan Plateau

AbstractSolar radiation‐topography interaction plays an important role in surface energy balance over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). However, the impacts of such interaction over the TP on climate locally and in the Asian regions remain unclear. This study uses the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) to evaluate the regional and teleconnected impacts of solar radiation‐topography interaction over the TP. Land‐atmosphere coupled experiments show that topography regulates the surface energy balance, snow processes, and surface climate over the TP across seasons. Accounting for solar radiation‐topography interaction improves E3SM simulation of surface climate. The winter cold bias in air temperature decreases from −4.57 to −3.79 K, and the wet bias in summer precipitation is mitigated in southern TP. The TP's solar radiation‐topography interaction further reduces the South and East Asian summer precipitation biases. Our results demonstrate the topographic roles in regional climate over the TP and highlight its teleconnected climate impacts.

Earth System Model Aerosol–Cloud Diagnostics (ESMAC Diags) package, version 2: assessing aerosols, clouds, and aerosol–cloud interactions via field campaign and long-term observations

Abstract. Poor representations of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) in Earth system models (ESMs) have long been the largest uncertainties in predicting global climate change. Huge efforts have been made to improve the representation of these processes in ESMs, and the key to these efforts is the evaluation of ESM simulations with observations. Most well-established ESM diagnostics packages focus on the climatological features; however, they lack process-level understanding and representations of aerosols, clouds, and ACIs. In this study, we developed the Earth System Model Aerosol–Cloud Diagnostics (ESMAC Diags) package to facilitate the routine evaluation of aerosols, clouds, and ACIs simulated the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) from the US Department of Energy (DOE). This paper documents its version 2 functionality (ESMAC Diags v2), which has substantial updates compared with version 1 (Tang et al., 2022a). The simulated aerosol and cloud properties have been extensively compared with in situ and remote-sensing measurements from aircraft, ship, surface, and satellite platforms in ESMAC Diags v2. It currently includes six field campaigns and two permanent sites covering four geographical regions: the eastern North Atlantic, the central US, the northeastern Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. These regions produce frequent liquid- or mixed-phase clouds, with extensive measurements available from the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement user facility and other agencies. ESMAC Diags v2 generates various types of single-variable and multivariable diagnostics, including percentiles, histograms, joint histograms, and heatmaps, to evaluate the model representation of aerosols, clouds, and ACIs. Select examples highlighting the capabilities of ESMAC Diags are shown using E3SM version 2 (E3SMv2). In general, E3SMv2 can reasonably reproduce many observed aerosol and cloud properties, with biases in some variables such as aerosol particle and cloud droplet sizes and number concentrations. The coupling of aerosol and cloud number concentrations may be too strong in E3SMv2, possibly indicating a bias in processes that control aerosol activation. Furthermore, the liquid water path response to a perturbed cloud droplet number concentration behaves differently in E3SMv2 and observations, which warrants further study to improve the cloud microphysics parameterizations in E3SMv2.

Evaluating the Water Cycle Over CONUS at the Watershed Scale for the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 1 (E3SMv1) Across Resolutions

AbstractThe water cycle is an important component of the earth system and it plays a key role in many facets of society, including energy production, agriculture, and human health and safety. In this study, the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) is run with low‐resolution (roughly 110 km) and high‐resolution (roughly 25 km) configurations—as established by the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project protocol—to evaluate the atmospheric and terrestrial water budgets over the conterminous United States (CONUS) at the large watershed scale. The warm season water cycle slows down in the HR experiment relative to the LR, with decreasing fluxes of precipitation, evapotranspiration, atmospheric moisture convergence, and runoff. The reductions in these terms exacerbate biases for some watersheds, while reducing them in others. For example, precipitation biases are exacerbated at HR over the Eastern and Central CONUS watersheds, while precipitation biases are reduced at HR over the Western CONUS watersheds. The most pronounced changes with resolution to the water cycle come from reductions in precipitation and evapotranspiration. The reduction in evapotranspiration reduces the biases across nearly all of the CONUS. Additional exploratory metrics show improvements to water cycle extremes (both in precipitation and streamflow), fractional contributions of different storm types to total precipitation, and mountain snowpack.

Evaluation of liquid cloud albedo susceptibility in E3SM using coupled eastern North Atlantic surface and satellite retrievals

Abstract. The impact of aerosol number concentration on cloud albedo is a persistent source of spread in global climate predictions due to multi-scale, interactive atmospheric processes that remain difficult to quantify. We use 5 years of geostationary satellite and surface retrievals at the US Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site in the Azores to evaluate the representation of liquid cloud albedo susceptibility for overcast cloud scenes in the DOE Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) and provide possible reasons for model–observation discrepancies. The overall distribution of surface 0.2 % CCN concentration values is reasonably simulated, but simulated liquid water path (LWP) is lower than observed and layer mean droplet concentration (Nd) comparisons are highly variable depending on the Nd retrieval technique. E3SMv1's cloud albedo is greater than observed for given LWP and Nd values due to a lower cloud effective radius than observed. However, the simulated albedo response to Nd is suppressed due to a correlation between the solar zenith angle (SZA) and Nd created by the seasonal cycle that is not observed. Controlling for this effect by examining the cloud optical depth (COD) shows that E3SMv1's COD response to CCN concentration is greater than observed. For surface-based retrievals, this is only true after controlling for cloud adiabaticity because E3SMv1's adiabaticities are much lower than observed. Assuming a constant adiabaticity in surface retrievals as done in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) retrievals narrows the retrieved ln Nd distribution, which increases the cloud albedo sensitivity to ln Nd to match the TOA sensitivity. The greater sensitivity of COD to CCN is caused by a greater Twomey effect in which the sensitivity of Nd to CCN is greater than observed for TOA-retrieved Nd, and once model–observation cloud adiabaticity differences are removed, this is also true for surface-retrieved Nd. The LWP response to Nd in E3SMv1 is overall negative as observed. Despite reproducing the observed LWP–Nd relationship, observed clouds become much more adiabatic as Nd increases, while E3SMv1 clouds do not, associated with more heavily precipitating clouds that are partially but not completely caused by deeper clouds and weaker inversions in E3SMv1. These cloud property differences indicate that the negative LWP–Nd relationship is likely not caused by the same mechanisms in E3SMv1 and observations. The negative simulated LWP response also fails to mute the excessively strong Twomey effect, highlighting potentially important confounding factor effects that likely render the LWP–Nd relationship non-causal. Nd retrieval scales and assumptions, particularly related to cloud adiabaticity, contribute to substantial spreads in the model–observation comparisons, though enough consistency exists to suggest that aerosol activation, drizzle, and entrainment processes are critical areas to focus E3SMv1 development for improving the fidelity of aerosol–cloud interactions in E3SM.

Region and cloud regime dependence of parametric sensitivity in E3SM atmosphere model

The Department of Energy (DOE)’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), including its atmosphere model (EAM), has many relatively new features. In a previous study we conducted a systematic parametric sensitivity analysis for EAM based on short, perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) simulations, mainly focusing on global mean climate features and metrics. While parameter values in global climate models are generally invariant in space and time, model response to parameters perturbation may vary by regions and climate regimes, which motivates the need to better understand the EAM model behaviors and physics at regional scale and process level. In this study, using the same set of PPE simulations and a similar sensitivity analysis framework, we identify parameters that cause largest sensitivities over different regions and compare model responses in fast atmospheric processes to the parameters across different cloud regimes for several important cloud-related fidelity metrics. We find that cloud forcing has opposite response to some parameters over mid-latitude vs. tropical land. We also analyze how the parametric sensitivity varies as stratocumulus transitions to shallow convection and to deep convection over ocean. Low cloud forcing and shortwave cloud forcing in the subtropical eastern Pacific are most sensitive to the parameters controlling the width of the probability density function (PDF) of the subgrid vertical velocity (w’) (gamma) and the damping of the w’ skewness (c8) near the coast but become more sensitive to the parameter affecting the damping of the w’ variance (c1) further offshore. Detailed interpretation of the spatial dependence of parametric sensitivity is provided. We also investigate how the parametric sensitivity evolves with prediction duration. This study improves our process-level understanding of cloud physics and parameterization and provides insights for developing more advanced regime-aware parameterization schemes in global climate model.

A seamless approach for evaluating climate models across spatial scales

In regions of the world where topography varies significantly with distance, most global climate models (GCMs) have spatial resolutions that are too coarse to accurately simulate key meteorological variables that are influenced by topography, such as clouds, precipitation, and surface temperatures. One approach to tackle this challenge is to run climate models of sufficiently high resolution in those topographically complex regions such as the North American Regionally Refined Model (NARRM) subset of the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SM v2). Although high-resolution simulations are expected to provide unprecedented details of atmospheric processes, running models at such high resolutions remains computationally expensive compared to lower-resolution models such as the E3SM Low Resolution (LR). Moreover, because regionally refined and high-resolution GCMs are relatively new, there are a limited number of observational datasets and frameworks available for evaluating climate models with regionally varying spatial resolutions. As such, we developed a new framework to quantify the added value of high spatial resolution in simulating precipitation over the contiguous United States (CONUS). To determine its viability, we applied the framework to two model simulations and an observational dataset. We first remapped all the data into Hierarchical Equal-Area Iso-Latitude Pixelization (HEALPix) pixels. HEALPix offers several mathematical properties that enable seamless evaluation of climate models across different spatial resolutions including its equal-area and partitioning properties. The remapped HEALPix-based data are used to show how the spatial variability of both observed and simulated precipitation changes with resolution increases. This study provides valuable insights into the requirements for achieving accurate simulations of precipitation patterns over the CONUS. It highlights the importance of allocating sufficient computational resources to run climate models at higher temporal and spatial resolutions to capture spatial patterns effectively. Furthermore, the study demonstrates the effectiveness of the HEALPix framework in evaluating precipitation simulations across different spatial resolutions. This framework offers a viable approach for comparing observed and simulated data when dealing with datasets of varying spatial resolutions. By employing this framework, researchers can extend its usage to other climate variables, datasets, and disciplines that require comparing datasets with different spatial resolutions.

Assessment of Warm and Dry Bias over ARM SGP Site in E3SMv2 and E3SM-MMF

Abstract Many climate models exhibit a dry and warm bias over the central United States during the summer months, including the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and its Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) configuration. Understanding the causes of this bias is important to shine a light on this common model error and reduce the uncertainty in future projections. In this study, we use E3SMv2 and E3SM-MMF to assess how parameterized and resolved convection affect temperature and precipitation biases over the Southern Great Plains site of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program. Both configurations overestimate near-surface temperature and underestimate precipitation at the ARM SGP site. The bias is associated with a lack of low-level clouds during days without precipitation and too much incoming solar radiation causing the surface to warm. Low-level cloud fraction in E3SM-MMF during the nonprecipitating days is lower in comparison to E3SMv2 and observation, consistent with the larger warm bias. We also find that the underestimated precipitation can be characterized as “too frequent, too weak” in E3SMv2 and “too rare, too intense” in E3SM-MMF. These deficiencies conspire to sustain the warm and dry bias over the central United States.

Incorporating the Effect of Large‐Scale Vertical Motion on Convection Through Convective Mass Flux Adjustment in E3SMv2

AbstractRecent observational studies suggest that the large‐scale dynamical forcing (vertical motion) plays important roles in deep convection development. In this study we propose a convective mass flux adjustment (MAdj) approach to represent the dynamical effects of large‐scale vertical motion on convection in the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2). With MAdj, convection is enhanced (suppressed) when there is large‐scale ascending (descending) motion at the planetary boundary layer top. The coupling of convection with large‐scale circulation significantly improves the simulation of climate variability in E3SMv2 across multiple scales from the diurnal cycle, convectively coupled equatorial waves, to the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO). The standard E3SMv2 tends to simulate overly weak diurnal amplitude of precipitation and overly weak variance of convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin and westward inertio‐gravity (WIG) waves. It also fails to simulate the essential characteristics of the MJO: continuous eastward propagation. With MAdj, the amplitude of diurnal cycle of precipitation is systematically increased and its probability density distribution is much closer to observations. The MAdj can also simulate more realistic eastward propagation of the MJO and much stronger convectively coupled Kelvin and WIG waves. Moreover, the MAdj approach slightly improves the climatology simulations in precipitation, cloud, radiation, circulation, temperature, and moisture fields, with overall root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) of major climatological fields reduced by about 2%. The MAdj approach suppresses excessive grid‐scale precipitation, reducing precipitation wet biases over South China Sea, Philippine Sea, Himalayas, and South Pacific Convergence Zone in western Pacific in summer.

Recreating the California New Year's Flood Event of 1997 in a Regionally Refined Earth System Model

AbstractThe 1997 New Year's flood event was the most costly in California's history. This compound extreme event was driven by a category 5 atmospheric river that led to widespread snowmelt. Extreme precipitation, snowmelt, and saturated soils produced heavy runoff causing widespread inundation in the Sacramento Valley. This study recreates the 1997 flood using the Regionally Refined Mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM‐E3SM) under prescribed ocean conditions. Understanding the processes causing extreme events informs practical efforts to anticipate and prepare for such events in the future, and also provides a rich context to evaluate model skill in representing extremes. Three California‐focused RRM grids, with horizontal resolution refinement of 14 km down to 3.5 km, and six forecast lead times, 28 December 1996 at 00Z through 30 December 1996 at 12Z, are assessed for their ability to recreate the 1997 flood. Planetary to synoptic scale atmospheric circulations and integrated vapor transport are weakly influenced by horizontal resolution refinement over California. Topography and mesoscale circulations, such as the Sierra barrier jet, are better represented at finer horizontal resolutions resulting in better estimates of storm total precipitation and storm duration snowpack changes. Traditional time‐series and causal analysis frameworks are used to examine runoff sensitivities state‐wide and above major reservoirs. These frameworks show that horizontal resolution plays a more prominent role in shaping reservoir inflows, namely the magnitude and time‐series shape, than forecast lead time, 2‐to‐4 days prior to the 1997 flood onset.

Climate Base State Influences on South Asian Monsoon Processes Derived From Analyses of E3SMv2 and CESM2

AbstractThe effects of differences in climate base state are related to processes associated with the present‐day South Asian monsoon simulations in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) and the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). Though tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean base state sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are over 1°C cooler in E3SMv2 compared to CESM2, and there is an overall reduction of Indian sector precipitation, the pattern of South Asian monsoon precipitation is similar in the two models. Monsoon‐ENSO teleconnections, dynamically linked by the large‐scale east‐west atmospheric circulation, are reduced in E3SMv2 compared to CESM2. In E3SMv2, this is related to cooler tropical SSTs and ENSO amplitude that is less than half that in CESM2. Comparison to a tropical Pacific pacemaker experiment shows, to a first order, that the base state SSTs and ENSO amplitude contribute roughly equally to lower amplitude monsoon‐ENSO teleconnections in E3SMv2.

A Strengthened Teleconnection of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation and Tropical Easterly Jet in the Past Decades in E3SMv1

AbstractThe Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) is a new global model that can generate a weakened tropical easterly jet (TEJ) during the easterly quasi‐biennial oscillation (EQBO) and a strengthened TEJ during the westerly QBO (WQBO), which is referred to as the QBO‐TEJ teleconnection. Although the longitudinal structure of the QBO‐TEJ teleconnection is different between reanalysis and simulations, we hypothesize that simulations can still provide insights into the observed long‐term changes in the QBO‐TEJ teleconnection. The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project historical simulations (AMIP‐historical) generate a strengthened trend in the correlation between the QBO and TEJ indices in the period of 1950–2014 as in reanalysis. The comparison of the AMIP‐historical and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project coupled historical simulations (coupled‐historical) shows that the warming of the Indian Ocean has played a vital role in the strengthened QBO‐TEJ teleconnection over the past six decades.

Evaluating EAMv2 Simulated High Latitude Clouds Using ARM Measurements in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres

AbstractThis study evaluates high latitude stratiform mixed‐phase clouds (SMPC) in the atmosphere model of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (EAMv2) by utilizing one‐year‐long ground‐based remote sensing measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation and Measurement (ARM) program. A nudging approach is applied to model simulations for a constrained comparison with the ARM observations. Observed and modeled SMPCs are sampled and collocated to address the difference in data resolution, so that we can consistently evaluate their macrophysical properties at the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) site in the Arctic and the McMurdo (AWR) site in the Antarctic. We found that EAMv2 overestimates SMPC frequency of occurrence at both sites. However, the model captures the observed larger cloud frequency of occurrence at the NSA site. For collocated SMPCs, the annual statistics of observed cloud macrophysics are generally reproduced at the NSA site, while at the AWR site, there are larger biases. Compared to the AWR site, the lower cloud top and cloud base and the warmer cloud top temperature observed at NSA are well simulated. On the other hand, simulated cloud phase is substantially biased. The model largely overestimates liquid water path, and the ice water path is underestimated at NSA, but at AWR, the liquid water path is frequently underestimated due to the dominance of snow in Antarctic SMPCs. As a result, the observed hemispheric difference in cloud phase partitioning is misrepresented in EAMv2. This study implies that additional model development is needed for high latitude mixed‐phase clouds.

Global evaluation of terrestrial biogeochemistry in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the role of the phosphorus cycle in the historical terrestrial carbon balance

Abstract. The importance of carbon (C)–nutrient interactions to the prediction of future C uptake has long been recognized. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) version 1 is one of the few land surface models that include both N and P cycling and limitation (ELMv1-CNP). Here we provide a global-scale evaluation of ELMv1-CNP using the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) system. We show that ELMv1-CNP produces realistic estimates of present-day carbon pools and fluxes. Compared to simulations with optimal P availability, simulations with ELMv1-CNP produce better performance, particularly for simulated biomass, leaf area index (LAI), and global net C balance. We also show ELMv1-CNP-simulated N and P cycling is in good agreement with data-driven estimates. We compared the ELMv1-CNP-simulated response to CO2 enrichment with meta-analysis of observations from similar manipulation experiments. We show that ELMv1-CNP is able to capture the field-observed responses for photosynthesis, growth, and LAI. We investigated the role of P limitation in the historical balance and show that global C sources and sinks are significantly affected by P limitation, as the historical CO2 fertilization effect was reduced by 20 % and C emission due to land use and land cover change was 11 % lower when P limitation was considered. Our simulations suggest that the introduction of P cycle dynamics and C–N–P coupling will likely have substantial consequences for projections of future C uptake.

A machine learning approach targeting parameter estimation for plant functional type coexistence modeling using ELM-FATES (v2.0)

Abstract. Tropical forest dynamics play a crucial role in the global carbon, water, and energy cycles. However, realistically simulating the dynamics of competition and coexistence between different plant functional types (PFTs) in tropical forests remains a significant challenge. This study aims to improve the modeling of PFT coexistence in the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a vegetation demography model implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM), ELM-FATES. Specifically, we explore (1) whether plant trait relationships established from field measurements can constrain ELM-FATES simulations and (2) whether machine learning (ML)-based surrogate models can emulate the complex ELM-FATES model and optimize parameter selections to improve PFT coexistence modeling. We conducted three ensembles of ELM-FATES experiments at a tropical forest site near Manaus, Brazil. By comparing the ensemble experiments without (Exp-CTR) and with (Exp-OBS) consideration of observed trait relationships, we found that accounting for these relationships slightly improves the simulations of water, energy, and carbon variables when compared to observations but degrades the simulation of PFT coexistence. Using ML-based surrogate models trained on Exp-CTR, we optimized the trait parameters in ELM-FATES and conducted another ensemble of experiments (Exp-ML) with these optimized parameters. The proportion of PFT coexistence experiments significantly increased from 21 % in Exp-CTR to 73 % in Exp-ML. After filtering the experiments that allow for PFT coexistence to agree with observations (within 15 % tolerance), 33 % of the Exp-ML experiments were retained, which is a significant improvement compared to the 1.4 % in Exp-CTR. Exp-ML also accurately reproduces the annual means and seasonal variations in water, energy, and carbon fluxes and the field inventory of aboveground biomass. This study represents a reproducible method that utilizes machine learning to identify parameter values that improve model fidelity against observations and PFT coexistence in vegetation demography models for diverse ecosystems. Our study also suggests the need for new mechanisms to enhance the robust simulation of coexisting plants in ELM-FATES and has significant implications for modeling the response and feedbacks of ecosystem dynamics to climate change.

The fully coupled regionally refined model of E3SM version 2: overview of the atmosphere, land, and river results

Abstract. This paper provides an overview of the United States (US) Department of Energy's (DOE's) Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) fully coupled regionally refined model (RRM) and documents the overall atmosphere, land, and river results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) DECK (Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima) and historical simulations – a first-of-its-kind set of climate production simulations using RRM. The North American (NA) RRM (NARRM) is developed as the high-resolution configuration of E3SMv2 with the primary goal of more explicitly addressing DOE's mission needs regarding impacts to the US energy sector facing Earth system changes. The NARRM features finer horizontal resolution grids centered over NA, consisting of 25→100 km atmosphere and land, a 0.125∘ river-routing model, and 14→60 km ocean and sea ice. By design, the computational cost of NARRM is ∼3× of the uniform low-resolution (LR) model at 100 km but only ∼ 10 %–20 % of a globally uniform high-resolution model at 25 km. A novel hybrid time step strategy for the atmosphere is key for NARRM to achieve improved climate simulation fidelity within the high-resolution patch without sacrificing the overall global performance. The global climate, including climatology, time series, sensitivity, and feedback, is confirmed to be largely identical between NARRM and LR as quantified with typical climate metrics. Over the refined NA area, NARRM is generally superior to LR, including for precipitation and clouds over the contiguous US (CONUS), summertime marine stratocumulus clouds off the coast of California, liquid and ice phase clouds near the North Pole region, extratropical cyclones, and spatial variability in land hydrological processes. The improvements over land are related to the better-resolved topography in NARRM, whereas those over ocean are attributable to the improved air–sea interactions with finer grids for both atmosphere and ocean and sea ice. Some features appear insensitive to the resolution change analyzed here, for instance the diurnal propagation of organized mesoscale convective systems over CONUS and the warm-season land–atmosphere coupling at the southern Great Plains. In summary, our study presents a realistically efficient approach to leverage the fully coupled RRM framework for a standard Earth system model release and high-resolution climate production simulations.