Energy Consumption In Pakistan Research Articles

Repercussions of Pakistan's renewable and non-renewable energies to the environmental footprint: Applying the non-linear ARDL estimation

The energy consumption in Pakistan, both renewable and nonrenewable, is examined herein as an important factor in carbon emissions. Employing a nonlinear ARDL (auto-regressive distributed lag), the research examines data from 1980 to 2021. The results show that the use of renewable energy has a negligible effect when it comes to the nation's overall carbon emissions. This is mainly because the key pollutants in Pakistan's energy sector come from nonrenewable sources, such as coal and natural gas. However, the report observes that the carbon emissions within the nonrenewable energy sector are directly related to economic growth. A further theorem of the nonlinear analysis has brought the limited role of renewable energy in resolving environmental problems into sharper focus, perhaps due to its lower proportion of Pakistan's total energy mix. According to the study, improving the proportion of renewable energy is the only way to combat environmental problems.

Prospects of natural gas consumption in Pakistan: based on the LMDI-STIRPAT PLSR framework.

The natural gas (NG) forms the sizeable portion of the primary energy consumption in Pakistan. However, its depleting domestic reserves and increasing demand is challenging to balance the supply-demand in the country. This paper investigates the relationship between NG consumption and driving factors using LMDI-STIRPAT PLSR framework. It is learned that fossil energy structure and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) are most influencing factors on NG consumption, followed by non-clean energy structure, energy intensity, and population. The factors were further modelled to forecast the future values of NG consumption for various scenarios. It is found that NG consumption would be 42.107 MTOE under the high development scenario which would be twice the baseline scenario. It is projected that indigenous NG production will fall from 4 to 2 billion cubic feet/day and demand will increase by 1.5 billion cubic feet/day. Therefore, an optimized strategy is required for a long-term solution to cater this increasing supply-demand.

Does Financial Development, Economic Growth and Industrial Growth Intensify Energy Consumption in Pakistan?

Does Financial Development, Economic Growth and Industrial Growth Intensify Energy Consumption in Pakistan?

Performance Assessment of Ground Source Heat Pumps to Offset Domestic Energy Consumption in Pakistan

Abstract: This paper presents an experimental based performance evaluation of ground source heat pumps (GSHP) to offset domestic energy consumption in Pakistan. Global population growth and rising energy consumption drove up demand for fossil fuels, adding to pollution and hastening the effects of climate change. A clean, renewable, durable, and cost-effective technology is GSHPs, which could help ease the burden of energy-intensive industries like residential cooling and heating. But due to the lack of performance characteristics of GSHP, resulting in less people opting for its installation and usage in homes. The performance assessment of GSHP system is carried out to provide financial sustainability of using this technology for heating and cooling in homes. It will also enable the readers to know the price range of this system and hence, better prepare them to take more informed decisions in the use of energy conservation and the quest for alternative/renewable energy means. The results show that by installing GSHP system, reduced excavation/backfilling, materials and other component ((like pump, radiator, water tank) costs that contributed 50%, 20% and 30% of the total costs of the system respectively. It is also noted that that GSHP system (1500ft of pipe length, placed at shallowest depth of 15ft) took 2.16 years while the system (placed at 15ft depth and having heat exchanger length of 1000ft) took 0.64 years to return its cost. If the GSHP system is insulated efficiently it can produce 3 to 4.5 time’s electrical energy that can serve for heating multiple homes. Based on these results, it can be concluded that GSHP system can be considered a viable solution to offset domestic energy consumption in Pakistan.

How technological innovation and institutional quality affect sectoral energy consumption in Pakistan? Fresh policy insights from novel econometric approach

Pakistan's energy issue remains an impediment to economic sectors facing significant obstacles in eliminating the energy demand-supply gap. Macroeconomic experts are looking for more suitable and inventive ways to construct a sustainable energy framework. The study inspects ten control factors, including household consumption expenditure, other electricity consumption, industrial value-added, urbanization population growth, agricultural value-added, arable land, rainfall pattern, public-private partnership, technological innovation, and institutional quality, to explore the electricity consumption of agricultural, commercial, industrial, and residential sectors from 1980 to 2019. We applied a novel dynamic ARDL simulation method, Cumulative Fourier Frequency Domain Causality, and structural break estimation approach. The findings reveal that agricultural, commercial, and industrial sectors have a greater influence on energy than residential sector determinants. More specifically, a 1 % increase in technological innovation in the commercial sector increases energy consumption by 0.029 and 0.141 % in the short and long-run, respectively. Additionally, a 1 % upsurge in the industrial sector's technological innovation coefficient indicates a short-run drop of 0.043 % and a long-run rise of 0.097 %. It implies that technological progress increases sectoral energy efficiency and is also environmentally friendly. While public-private partnerships are beneficial to the country's commercial activities, increasing institutional performance can enhance the productivity of the industrial sector. Also, household consumption and expenditure greatly impacted the residential sector. The findings suggest that understanding energy governance and policy methods is important to resolve equitable energy infrastructure challenges in Pakistan.

Designing energy policy in the presence of underground economy: the case of Pakistan

PurposeIn the presence of informal sector in the country, designing an energy policy and the pursuit of higher economic growth become challenging for emerging economies. These economies are usually resource starved, and the presence of underground economy leads to faulty estimates of energy demand. The authors explore the energy–growth nexus in the presence of underground economy for Pakistan, an emerging economy host to large informal sector and facing recurring energy crises.Design/methodology/approachThe authors evaluate the impact of underground economy on energy demand in the presence of explanatory variables, including official gross domestic product (GDP), foreign direct investment and financial development. The authors first assess the influence of official economy on the consumption of energy. The authors investigate how energy consumption is influenced solely by underground economy. Finally, the authors evaluate the impact of true GDP on the energy consumption. The authors employ combined cointegration method of Bayer and Hanck (2013) and then apply vector error correction model.FindingsThe results reveal that official GDP, underground economy and true GDP positively and significantly affect energy consumption in both short and long run. Similarly, financial development as well as foreign direct investment enhance energy consumption. The authors find unidirectional causality between energy consumption and official GDP variables (OGDP → EC), underground economy (UE → EC) and true GDP variables (TGDP → EC) in the long run. The authors observe bidirectional causality in the short run between energy consumption and official GDP (OGDP ↔ EC) and true GDP (TGDP ↔ EC).Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, no study examines the causal relationship of energy consumption and underground economy. Overall, the findings assist policymakers to consider and implement different energy-related policies considering the significant role of underground economy for energy consumption in Pakistan.

Impact of shadow economy on renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption in Pakistan: evidence from quantile cointegration and causality analysis.

The objective of this study is to identify the impact of the shadow economy on renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption at aggregated and disaggregated levels over the period of 1972Q1-2018Q4 in Pakistan. This study carries nonlinear/asymmetric time series analysis such as quantile unit root test for stationary of data series, newly developed quantile cointegration (Xiao, J. Econom. 150:248-260, 2009) for existence of long-run relationships and novel quantile causality approach (Troster, Econom. Rev. 37, 850-866, 2018) are used to identify direction of causality over the quantiles. The results confirm that quantiles of shadow economy cointegrate with the quantiles of energy consumption at aggregated and disaggregated levels. The results of quantile regression show that a shadow economy has a positive and significant impact on renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption at aggregated and disaggregated levels in all quantiles starting from extreme low quantiles to extreme high quantiles. Furthermore, the results of quantile causality illustrate a unidirectional causality running from underground economy to fluctuations in renewable, nonrenewable, and total energy consumption. More specifically, disaggregated energy consumptions such as oil, gas, nuclear, hydro, and gas are also caused by shadow economy, generally in low and high tails/quantiles.

Sustainable development and pollution: the effects of CO2 emission on population growth, food production, economic development, and energy consumption in Pakistan.

Population growth has been a leading driver of global CO2 emissions over the last several decades. CO2 emission and greenhouse gas emissions are a key issue in the world that affects food production and also causes the climate change. The core purpose of this study was to inspect the influence of carbon dioxide emission to population growth, food production, economic growth, livestock and energy utilization in Pakistan. The STIRPAT (Stochastic Impact by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology) model with the extension of an ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) method was utilized to demonstrate the linkage amid variables. Outcomes during short-run investigation reveal that variables population growth, economic growth, rural population growth, livestock production uncovered a productive association with CO2 emission. Furthermore, via long-run population growth, economic growth, rural population growth, livestock production and energy utilization have positive interaction with CO2 emission, while the variables food production and urban population growth demonstrated an adverse influence to CO2 emission during long- and short-run interaction. Similarly, the error correction model exposed that population growth, economic progress, livestock and energy utilization have constructive interaction to CO2 emission, while the variables food production, urban and rural population growth exposed an adverse impact to CO2 emission. On the basis of this analysis, we will address the strategic consequences.

Rule of Law, Corruption Control, Governance, and Economic Growth in Managing Renewable and Nonrenewable Energy Consumption in South Asia.

Strong governance is vital for developing environmental policies to promote renewable energy consumption and discourage nonrenewable energy sources. The present research explores the effect of economic growth and different governance indicators on renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption in Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka using data from 1996 to 2019. For this purpose, the study uses different econometric techniques to find the long-term effects of the rule of law, regulatory quality, corruption control, government effectiveness, political stability, voice and accountability, and economic growth on oil, natural gas, coal, hydroelectricity, and renewable energy consumption. The results show that economic growth has a positive impact on all investigated renewable and nonrenewable energy sources. Additionally, regulatory quality measures also increase all types of renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption. Except for natural gas, the impact of the rule of law is negative, and government effectiveness positively affects all energy sources. Control of corruption has a positive effect on natural gas consumption. Political stability has a negative effect on nonrenewable energy sources and a positive impact on renewable energy sources. The magnitudes of the effects of economic growth and most governance indicators are found to be larger on nonrenewable sources than renewable sources. The testing of the energy consumption and governance nexus is scant in global literature and is missing in South Asian literature. Hence, the study results contribute to how South Asian economies can be more sustainable in energy use by enhancing governance indicators in the economies. Particularly, the results imply that these countries should focus on improving the rule of law, corruption control, governance, regulatory quality, political stability, and economic growth to help maintain a sustainable balance of renewable and nonrenewable energy sources. Moreover, this issue needs further attention in developing countries, as governance indicators would play an effective role in promoting sustainable energy.

An empirical analysis of inter-factor and inter-fuel substitution in the energy sector of Pakistan

Energy consumption in Pakistan has increased considerably over the last two decades particularly due to industrialization, urbanization, and population growth. To keep pace with the economic growth, the growing energy demands have been fulfilled at the cost of switching from abundant, cheap, and environmentally friendly domestic hydropower to expensive, imported, and higher GHG emitting petroleum products, thus leaving Pakistan at the mercy of global oil crises and environmental degradations. While employing the trans-log production framework, this study has investigated the potential inter-fuel and inter-factor substitution among energy vs. non-energy factors in calculating substitution elasticities between pairs of labour, capital, petroleum, coal, natural gas, and hydroelectricity in order to design policy for Pakistan on how to ensure secure energy and environmental protection. Using the time-series data covering the period 1980–2017, the ridge regression technique was adopted to calculate parameter estimates. The findings show that labour-energy and capital-energy are substitutes, thus signifying the need for greater focus on technological progress and skilled employment creation to save energy and mitigate CO2 emissions. The gradual removal of energy subsidies is suggested to discourage inefficient energy use and stimulate capital-intensive production approaches. The findings also advocate the significance of a diversified energy-mix consisted of hydroelectricity and natural gas.

An asymmetrical analysis to explore the dynamic impacts of CO2 emission to renewable energy, expenditures, foreign direct investment, and trade in Pakistan.

Carbon dioxide emission and GHGs are associated with fossil fuels which have adverse effects on the environment. The key intention of this paper was to determine the asymmetric effect of CO2 emission on expenditures, trade, FDI, and renewable energy consumption in Pakistan. An asymmetrical technique (nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag) was employed to validate the constructive and adverse relation among variables. Furthermore, the Granger causality test was also used to verify the unidirectional association amid variables. Study outcomes revealed that the adverse shocks of renewable energy consumption exposed expressively to upsurge CO2 emission in the short-run dynamics. Conversely, constructive shocks of renewable energy consumption display an adversative association with CO2 emission. Furthermore, the decreasing trend in foreign direct investment tends to impede the detrimental effects of CO2 emission. Additionally, the variable expenditures also create the non-eco-friendly impacts and manifest the positive linkage through CO2 emission. Trade possesses statistically insignificant linkage with environmental degradation. The results also disclose that positive as well as negative variations in the foreign direct investment expose to degrade the environmental eminence. Long-run results suggest the direct association between downward trend in renewable energy consumption and CO2 emission signifying that the pollution level decreases, and the upward trend in renewable energy consumption, however, demonstrates insignificantly positive effects. The results also disclose that positive as well as negative variations in the FDI lead to degrade the CO2 emission. Moreover, it is found that the expenditures soar the issue of pollution again in the long run. Finally, the consequence of trade on CO2 emission is adverse, as the outcome suggests. In order to improve the environmental policies for sustainable growth, the study provides direction toward a sustainable environment by reducing carbon dioxide emission.

A revisit to the relationship between financial development and energy consumption: Is globalization paramount?

The pace of globalization continues to increase, expanding economic activities around the globe and influencing energy consumption in both developing and developed countries. However, views have become different on whether globalization increases or decreases energy consumption. The present research investigates the nexus among financial development, globalization, and energy consumption from 1980 to 2017 by conducting a newly developed method, bootstrap auto-regressive distributive lag (BARDL) by McNown et al. [1] for the empirical estimation. Empirical results confirm that both globalization and financial development increase energy consumption in Pakistan. Further per capita GDP promotes energy consumption. Sound financial systems attract foreign investors and improve economic efficiency, but the role of globalization cannot be left out of the development process. This new finding provides direction for policymakers who seek to improve energy efficiency.

RETRACTED ARTICLE: The shadow economy in South Asia: dynamic effects on clean energy consumption and environmental pollution

This study explores the symmetric and asymmetric effects of the shadow economy on clean energy and air pollution of South Asian countries over the period 1991–2019. The short-run ARDL findings for the clean energy model suggest that shadow economy increases clean energy consumption in Pakistan and Sri Lanka, whereas this effect is negative for India and insignificant for other countries. The long-run results indicate the adverse impact only for India and the effects of tax revenue on clean energy are positively significant in Sri Lanka while negatively signiicant in Nepal and Bangladesh. Institutional quality significantly increases clean energy in Pakistan, India, and Nepal. However, in the case of Pakistan and Nepal, institutional quality deteriorated the environmental quality. The results for the pollution model confer that shadow economy increases emissions in Pakistan, decreases in Bangladesh and Nepal, and has no effect in India and Sri Lanka. The nonlinear ARDL results reveal that the positive components of the shadow economy significantly increase clean energy consumption only in Pakistan; however, the negative components of the shadow economy are negatively significant in all countries except Sri Lanka and Nepal. However, the negative component of the informal sector of the economy reduces CO2 emissions in India and increases CO2 emissions in Bangladesh and Nepal. The results offer important policy implications for achieving clean energy and better environmental quality in South Asian countries.

Do natural resources determine energy consumption in Pakistan? The importance of quantile asymmetries

Unlike prior studies, this paper examines the nonlinear and distributional asymmetric effects of natural resources abundance on energy consumption in Pakistan controlling for the effects of economic growth, oil prices, exports diversification and economic complexity. Using quarterly data over the period 1972–2018, we employed several advanced econometric techniques such as quantile unit root test developed by Köenker and Xiao (2004) is used to check the stationarity of the variables at different quantiles. Afterwards, the quantile ARDL model is employed to account for the distributional asymmetry between energy consumption and its determinants. Lastly, we apply quantile causality test of Troster (2018) in order to examine causality at different quantiles. The empirical results show that speed of adjustment parameter is significantly negative at the low quantiles (0.05 to 0.30) ensuring thus the stability of ARDL model at these quantiles. Furthermore, natural resources have a positive contemporaneous effect on energy consumption and a negative one-period lagged effect, leading to a positive cumulative short-run effect of natural resources on energy consumption. Similarly, economic growth and oil prices add to energy consumption. Export diversification does not determine energy consumption in the short-run but economic complexity influences energy consumption contemporaneously and negatively at all quantiles but the extreme ones. The causality analysis reveals the presence of causal relation running from natural resources, economic growth and oil prices, to energy consumption at all quantiles except at the two highest quantiles (0.90 and 0.95). Energy consumption is cause of exports diversification and economic complexity. This empirical evidence opens new insights for policy makers to use natural resources as economic tool to maintain energy demand for long run economic growth.

Structural Decomposition Analysis to Investigate the Changes in Energy Consumption in Pakistan

The world energy demand is increasing due to rapid growth in the global economy, industrialization, and urbanization. Pakistan is also confronted with increasing energy demand on one hand and is confronted with the challenge of energy demand-supply gap on the other hand. Since energy is the major driver for growth, it becomes important to investigate the trends of energy consumption in a country and the factors that are most affecting the changes in the use of energy. This particular study aims to investigate the use of energy by all the economic sectors of Pakistan during 2000–2012. The major contribution is the first time application of structural decomposition analysis (SDA) for energy usage along with using Input-Output data for the period of 2002–2012. The results show the fluctuation of the energy intensity of the sectors throughout the study period. Also, the overall effect of energy intensity is negative on energy consumption and it shows a negative contribution value of −80.90% for the study period. Furthermore, the focus on more energy-intensive products like cement, automobiles, iron, steel products and the increasing final demand of the economy contributes to the growth of energy consumption in Pakistan during 2000–2012.

Asymmetric Dynamics of Environmental Bearings of Trade and Energy Consumption in Pakistan

This study endeavors to investigate asymmetric bearing of energy use, composition effect, foreign trade, and economic prosperity, on the carbon dioxide emanation of Pakistan from 1970 to 2015. This study adopts nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model methodology to cointegration to capture the potential asymmetries. We also incorporated asymmetric and non-asymmetric granger causality approach to analyze the causality amongst series. The empirical results indicate that energy use, economic upswing, and foreign trade are not environment friendly. The NARDL results suggest that energy efficient technologies and renewable energy should be adopted to alleviate the CO2 emissions.

Another outlook to sector-level energy consumption in Pakistan from dominant energy sources and correlation with economic growth.

The present study seeks to investigate the sector-level energy consumption of oil and natural gas and to explore the linkage between economic growth, households, agriculture, industry, power, fertilizers, and commercial sector in Pakistan for the period of 1980-2016. The energy sector of Pakistan is facing severe crisis from the last few years due to inadequate production and supply. Long-lasting deficits of natural gas and oil, the two supreme types of fuel in Pakistan, had detrimental consequences for the growth as well as for the economic development. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method and Granger causality test under vector error correction model (VECM) were employed to check the association among the variables. Furthermore, the innovative accounting method was used to investigate the responsiveness of each variable to another within the study framework. Empirical results show long-run association among the variables, as oil consumption in the agriculture and power sector show a positive effect on Pakistan's economic growth. Similarly, energy consumption from natural gas in the households and fertilizers as well as in the industry sector has had a constructive association with economic growth. In contrast, energy consumption from oil in the households and industry sectors has adverse association with economic growth, while natural gas consumption in the commercial sector has negative linkage with economic growth. Possible steps should be taken by the Government of Pakistan to enhance the production of oil and natural gas from other alternatives to meet the requirements of these sectors.

Forecasting CO2 emissions from energy consumption in Pakistan under different scenarios: The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor

AbstractThe forecast of CO2 emissions is very crucial, especially for Pakistan as it is one of the top victims of climate change. A univariate model, (ARIMA) autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), was used to forecast CO2 emissions for Pakistan. The CO2 emissions scenarios were developed for Pakistan till 2020, forecasting them further to 2030. The scenarios developed include China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) scenario, where CO2 emissions from high‐priority energy projects under the CPEC were considered. The scenarios attempt to estimate the impactful emission reduction percentage, which the country needs to adopt along with other necessary changes in the existing policies of the country. The forecast results clearly indicate that the emissions are bound to increase under business as usual and CPEC scenarios and the country would fail to meet the Nationally Determined Contributions pledged at COP21. In other scenarios, where we assumed the country has adopted mitigatory strategies to curb the emissions, the forecast shows decreased CO2 emissions for Pakistan. The mean absolute percentage error for all the forecasts was found to be less than 10%, making the forecast highly accurate. © 2020 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Determining the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Pakistan

Energy is substantial for economic development. This study aims to unveil the causal relationship and long-term association between economic growth and energy consumption in Pakistan. The Granger-Causality test finds that; natural gas consumption, electricity consumption and coal consumption have uni-directional causal relationship with economic growth as (GC, EC and CC→GDP), however, GDP growth rate, natural gas consumption and coal consumption unilaterally Granger causes Inflation (GDP, GC and CC→CPI) and lastly coal consumption→natural gas consumption (GC), Electricity consumption (EC)→GC. The ARDL estimations delineate natural gas consumption and oil consumption having a positive and negative association with GDP growth rate may have significant long term impacts respectively on the the economic growth of Pakistan.

The dynamic relationship between CO2 emission, international tourism and energy consumption in Pakistan: a cointegration approach

Purpose The present study aims to investigate the dynamic relationship between international tourist receipts, economic growth, energy use and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Pakistan over the period 1980-2016. Many researchers have investigated the link between tourism and CO2 emissions, but there is no clear picture as the results are contradictory. This study is an attempt to compliment the literature related to tourism and environmental quality. Design/methodology/approach The study adopted the autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) model to investigate the short- and long-run estimates simultaneously. The study further applied Granger causality to find out the direction of causalities. To arrive at long-run robust estimates, the study used dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) model. Findings The results found that tourist receipts have no significant impact on environmental quality, while growth and energy consumption are the main determinants of CO2 emissions in Pakistan. The Granger causality test confirmed unidirectional causalities from GDP and energy consumption toward CO2 emissions, while tourist receipts do not affect environmental quality. DOLS technique confirmed the long-run estimates of ARDL model. Research limitations/implications The result of the study complements the literature by adding new evidence regarding the nexus of tourism and environment. Findings of the study are important for policymakers and regulatory bodies to place their focus on the development of tourism sector (services sector) rather than energy-intensive manufacturing activities to sustain the growth of the country in higher quartiles, as tourism receipts have no significant negative externalities toward environment, while energy use is one of the key determinants of environmental degradation. Originality/value This study used time series data over the period 1980-2016 for Pakistan to inspect the dynamic relationship between tourist receipts, economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions.