Forecasting CO2 emissions from energy consumption in Pakistan under different scenarios: The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor

Abstract

AbstractThe forecast of CO2 emissions is very crucial, especially for Pakistan as it is one of the top victims of climate change. A univariate model, (ARIMA) autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), was used to forecast CO2 emissions for Pakistan. The CO2 emissions scenarios were developed for Pakistan till 2020, forecasting them further to 2030. The scenarios developed include China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) scenario, where CO2 emissions from high‐priority energy projects under the CPEC were considered. The scenarios attempt to estimate the impactful emission reduction percentage, which the country needs to adopt along with other necessary changes in the existing policies of the country. The forecast results clearly indicate that the emissions are bound to increase under business as usual and CPEC scenarios and the country would fail to meet the Nationally Determined Contributions pledged at COP21. In other scenarios, where we assumed the country has adopted mitigatory strategies to curb the emissions, the forecast shows decreased CO2 emissions for Pakistan. The mean absolute percentage error for all the forecasts was found to be less than 10%, making the forecast highly accurate. © 2020 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.