Energetic Events Research Articles

Uncovering the heterogeneity of a solar flare mechanism with mixture models

The physics of solar flares occurring on the Sun is highly complex and far from fully understood. However, observations show that solar eruptions are associated with the intense kilogauss fields of active regions, where free energies are stored with field-aligned electric currents. With the advent of high-quality data sources such as the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) and Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), recent works on solar flare forecasting have been focusing on data-driven methods. In particular, black box machine learning and deep learning models are increasingly being adopted in which underlying data structures are not modeled explicitly. If the active regions indeed follow the same laws of physics, similar patterns should be shared among them, reflected by the observations. Yet, these black box models currently used in the literature do not explicitly characterize the heterogeneous nature of the solar flare data within and between active regions. In this paper, we propose two finite mixture models designed to capture the heterogeneous patterns of active regions and their associated solar flare events. With extensive numerical studies, we demonstrate the usefulness of our proposed method for both resolving the sample imbalance issue and modeling the heterogeneity for rare energetic solar flare events.

An Assessment of the GLE Alert++ Warning System

Over the last years the Athens Cosmic Ray Group of the National & Kapodistrian University of Athens has implemented a warning tool called GLE Alert, which is a highly credible application that issues alerts when a ground level enhancement (GLE) starts due to very high energy solar energetic particles reaching the Earth. This application warns of a high intensity solar energetic particle event up to several minutes before it reaches near the near-Earth space environment. In this work, an assessment of the latest updated version of GLE Alert, GLE Alert++, is presented. GLE Alert++ is a federated product of the ESA S2P SWE Space Radiation Expert Service Centre, which is part of the ESA Space WEather Service NETwork (SWESNET) project. The assessment of the GLE Alert++, which was finalized in October 2022, focused on: (a) the availability of the real-time data provided by the neutron monitor stations that contribute to the GLE Alert++, (b) the behaviour of each station regarding the different Alert levels status (Watch, Warning and Alert), and (c) the definition of the real-time assessment index. The results of this work are of essential importance since they ensure a reliable and trustworthy warning tool, and can be highly useful in protecting humans during extreme solar energetic events.

Waves from compact SeaSonde® High Frequency radars in the southeastern Bay of Biscay: measurement performance under different noise and wind conditions

Global concern on extreme events is increasing the need for real time monitoring of the wave fields in coastal areas. High Frequency (HF) radars, a remote sensing technology widely applied to measure near real time surface coastal currents with demonstrated accuracy, can also play a major role in the operational monitoring of waves height, period and direction. However, the ability of HF radar to measure waves can be jeopardized by specific ocean-meteorological and environmental conditions. Thus, a case-to-case analysis and parameterization is necessary to ensure the best data in each study area. In the southeastern (SE) Bay of Biscay, the EuskOOS HF radar network, composed by two compact HF radar stations provides hourly surface waves data in near real time. In this work, we analyze the effects of wind and noise levels on the radar skills for wave measurement, compared with existing in-situ data obtained by an offshore buoy. Then, the HF radar wave measurements for 2022 are analyzed with special focus on the most energetic observed wave events. The analysis performed versus in-situ data shows that both stations present reliable and accurate data for waves over 1.5 m, in agreement to what can be expected for a 4.46 MHz radar. The highest correlations are observed for waves > 4 m significant wave height, which demonstrates the capabilities for monitoring highly energetic events. Interference and noise detected on very precise time slots significantly reduced the availability and reliability of the measurements. Also, local winds blowing from land direction were found to affect the agreement between radar and in-situ measurements. Recommendations extracted from the analysis are provided, with the aim that they can be extended to other HF networks for more accurate wave monitoring.

Chondrule formation during low‐speed collisions of planetesimals: A hybrid splash–flyby framework

AbstractChondrules probably formed during a small window of time ~1–4 Ma after CAIs, when most solid matter in the asteroid belt was already in the form of km‐sized planetesimals. They are unlikely, therefore, to be “building blocks” of planets or abundant on asteroids, but more likely to be a product of energetic events common in the asteroid belt at that epoch. Laboratory experiments indicate that they could have formed when solids of primitive composition were heated to temperatures of ~1600 K and then cooled for minutes to hours. A plausible heat source for this is magma, which is likely to have been abundant in the asteroid belt at that time, and only that time, due to the trapping of 26Al decay energy in planetesimal interiors. Here, we propose that chondrules formed during low‐speed () collisions between large planetesimals when heat from their interiors was released into a stream of primitive debris from their surfaces. Heating would have been essentially instantaneous and cooling would have been on the dynamical time scale, ~30 min, where is the mean density of a planetesimal. Many of the heated fragments would have remained gravitationally bound to the merged object and could have suffered additional heating events as they orbited and ultimately accreted to its surface. This is a hybrid of the splash and flyby models: We propose that it was the energy released from a body's molten interior, not its mass, that was responsible for chondrule formation by heating primitive debris that emerged from the collision.

Mancha3D Code: Multipurpose Advanced Nonideal MHD Code for High-Resolution Simulations in Astrophysics

The Mancha3D code is a versatile tool for numerical simulations of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) processes in solar/stellar atmospheres. The code includes nonideal physics derived from plasma partial ionization, a realistic equation of state and radiative transfer, which allows performing high-quality realistic simulations of magnetoconvection, as well as idealized simulations of particular processes, such as wave propagation, instabilities or energetic events. The paper summarizes the equations and methods used in the Mancha3D (Multifluid (-purpose -physics -dimensional) Advanced Non-ideal MHD Code for High resolution simulations in Astrophysics 3D) code. It also describes its numerical stability and parallel performance and efficiency. The code is based on a finite difference discretization and a memory-saving Runge–Kutta (RK) scheme. It handles nonideal effects through super-time-stepping and Hall diffusion schemes, and takes into account thermal conduction by solving an additional hyperbolic equation for the heat flux. The code is easily configurable to perform different kinds of simulations. Several examples of the code usage are given. It is demonstrated that splitting variables into equilibrium and perturbation parts is essential for simulations of wave propagation in a static background. A perfectly matched layer (PML) boundary condition built into the code greatly facilitates a nonreflective open boundary implementation. Spatial filtering is an important numerical remedy to eliminate grid-size perturbations enhancing the code stability. Parallel performance analysis reveals that the code is strongly memory bound, which is a natural consequence of the numerical techniques used, such as split variables and PML boundary conditions. Both strong and weak scalings show adequate performance up to several thousands of processors (CPUs).

Exploring the cosmic nexus: Black holes, gravitational waves, and the dance of the universe

In the vast cosmos, the enigmatic interplay of black holes and gravitational waves unfolds as a mesmerizing narrative, offering profound insights into the universes deepest mysteries. This paper delves into the intricate relationship between these cosmic phenomena, exploring their formation, properties, and their transformative implications in the realm of astrophysics. As colossal black holes merge, they generate gravitational waves that carry signatures of their masses, spins, and orientations. These waves, harnessed through advanced detectors like LIGO and Virgo, present a new dimension of cosmic exploration, unveiling the intricate dynamics of the universes most energetic events. Through the lens of gravitational wave astronomy, the author embarks on a journey to decipher gravitys elegant dance with spacetime, testing the fundamental principles of general relativity and pushing the boundaries of peoples understanding. This paper weaves an intricate tapestry from the cosmic threads of black holes and gravitational waves, inviting people to unravel the universes most profound enigmas and redefine peoples cosmic narrative.

Coastal Data Information Program: advances in measuring and modeling wave activity, climate, and extremes

ABSTRACT The Coastal Data Information Program (CDIP) provides wave data to the public in near real-time, maintains an operational wave model for the California coast, and is engaged in ocean wave research on a global scale. CDIP’s array of moored wave buoy stations are instrumented with Datawell Waveriders. CDIP’s recent work to improve monitoring capabilities for directional surface wave spectra, surface current, and temperature is described. This includes data quality assurance and control, real-time alerts, telemetry and dissemination information technology infrastructure and methodology, data visualization tools, and mooring and instrumentation innovation. CDIP’s goal is to maximize data reliability, availability, accuracy, and precision. Validation of commonly used wave models – operational, hindcast, and forecast – with CDIP data is automated to provide assessments of relative skills at a variety of coastal locations and wave conditions. Wave heights measured by the buoys typically exceed modeled heights during the most energetic events, such as hurricanes, nor’easters, and bomb cyclones. In a practical validation example, the global wave model used to drive CDIP’s California coastal wave forecasts was recently changed, based on comparisons against buoy data. Forecast performance has improved for swell events, which are a challenge to model accurately in the Southern California Bight.

Real-time monitoring for the next core-collapse supernova in JUNO

The core-collapse supernova (CCSN) is considered one of the most energetic astrophysical events in the universe. The early and prompt detection of neutrinos before (pre-SN) and during the supernova (SN) burst presents a unique opportunity for multi-messenger observations of CCSN events. In this study, we describe the monitoring concept and present the sensitivity of the system to pre-SN and SN neutrinos at the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO), a 20 kton liquid scintillator detector currently under construction in South China.The real-time monitoring system is designed to ensure both prompt alert speed and comprehensive coverage of progenitor stars. It incorporates prompt monitors on the electronic board as well as online monitors at the data acquisition stage.Assuming a false alert rate of 1 per year, this monitoring system exhibits sensitivity to pre-SN neutrinos up to a distance of approximately 1.6 (0.9) kiloparsecs and SN neutrinos up to about 370 (360) kiloparsecs for a progenitor mass of 30 solar masses, considering both normal and inverted mass ordering scenarios.The pointing ability of the CCSN is evaluated by analyzing the accumulated event anisotropy of inverse beta decay interactions from pre-SN or SN neutrinos. This, along with the early alert, can play a crucial role in facilitating follow-up multi-messenger observations of the next galactic or nearby extragalactic CCSN.

Wave transformations near a coronal magnetic null point

Context. Null points are often invoked in studies of quasi-periodic coronal jets and in connection with periodic signals preceding actual reconnection events. Although the periodicity of these events spans a wide range of periods, most show a 2- to 5-min periodicity compatible with the global p-modes. Aims We investigate whether magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) waves, in particular, acoustic p-modes, can cause strong current accumulation at the null points. This can in turn drive localized periodic heating in the solar corona. Methods. To do this, we began with a three-dimensional numerical setup incorporating a gravitationally stratified solar atmosphere and an axially symmetric magnetic field including a coronal magnetic null point. To excite waves, we employed wave drivers mimicking global p-modes. Using our recently developed wave-mode decomposition technique, we investigated the process of mode conversion, mode transmission, and wave reflection at various important layers of the solar atmosphere, such as the Alfvén acoustic equipartition layer and transition region. We examined the energy flux distribution in various MHD modes or in acoustic and magnetic components, as the waves propagate and interact with a magnetic field of null topology. We also examined current accumulation in the surroundings of the null point. Results. We found that most of the vertical velocity is transmitted through the Alfvén acoustic equipartition layer and maintains an acoustic nature, while a small fraction generates fast waves via the mode conversion process. The fast waves undergo almost total reflection in the transition region due to sharp gradients in density and Alfvén speed. There are only weak signatures of Alfvén wave generation near the transition region through the fast-to-Alfvén mode conversion. Because the slow waves propagate with the local sound speed, they are not much affected by the density gradients in the transition region and undergo secondary mode conversion and transmission at the Alfvén-acoustic equipartition layer surrounding the null point. This leads to fast-wave focusing at the null point. These fast waves have associated perturbations in current density and show oscillatory signatures that are compatible with the second harmonic of the driving frequency. This might result in resistive heating and in an enhanced intensity in the presence of finite resistivity. Conclusions. We conclude that MHD waves are a potential source for oscillatory current dissipation around the magnetic null point. We conjecture that in addition to oscillatory magnetic reconnection, global p-modes could lead to the formation of various quasi-periodic energetic events.

Satellite observations of storm erosion and recovery of the Ebro Delta coastline, NE Spain

Storms and extremely energetic events may significantly impact the form and structure of beaches, and so cause erosive processes and coastal damages. Efficient management actions require an up-to-date and accurate knowledge of beach morphological changes, with the shoreline position being a good indicator of such changes. This work proposes the use of the open-source Shoreline Analysis and Extraction Tool (SAET) software for the definition of satellite-derived shorelines (SDSs) from L8 and Sentinel-2 imagery to reveal the shoreline position changes at the beaches of the Ebro Delta, NE Spain. Spatial-temporal models (STMs) of shoreline changes enable a characterisation of how the beaches responded to the storms of 2020. In conjunction with wave data, STMs enable an analysis of the erosive response to storm events, as well as a monitoring of subsequent beach recovery in the short and medium term (<1 year). Results show how Storm Gloria (January 2020, Hs max = 7.62 m) acted as a disruptive event and shifting point in the shoreline trend. As a response to that storm, major erosive processes occurred along the delta that caused an average shoreline retreat of 47 m. A progressive recovery during the spring and summer was mainly associated with periods of low wave energy. Nevertheless, by the end of the year a complete recovery had been achieved for about half of the coast, while the other half showed an average erosion of more than 10 m when compared to the pre-storm situation. Both the erosive and the recovery processes took place unevenly on different sections of the coast, probably dependent on factors such as the orientation of the beach and the pattern of longitudinal sediment transport along the coast.

Solar Electron Beam—Langmuir Wave Interactions and How They Modify Solar Electron Beam Spectra: Solar Orbiter Observations of a Match Made in the Heliosphere

Solar Orbiter's four in situ instruments have recorded numerous energetic electron events at heliocentric distances between 0.5 and 1 au. We analyze energetic electron fluxes, spectra, pitch-angle distributions, associated Langmuir waves, and type III solar radio bursts for three events to understand what causes modifications in the electron flux and identify the origin and characteristics of features observed in the electron spectrum. We investigate what electron beam properties and solar wind conditions are associated with Langmuir wave growth and spectral breaks in the electron peak flux as a function of energy. We observe velocity dispersion and quasilinear relaxation in the electron flux caused by the resonant wave–particle interactions in the deca-keV range, at the energies at which we observe breaks in the electron spectrum, cotemporal with the local generation of Langmuir waves. We show, via the evolution of the electron flux at the time of the event, that these interactions are responsible for the spectral signatures observed around 10 and 50 keV, confirming the results of simulations by Kontar and Reid. These signatures are independent of pitch-angle scattering. Our findings highlight the importance of using overlapping FOVs when working with data from different sensors. In this work, we exploit observations from all in situ instruments to address, for the first time, how the energetic electron flux is modified by the beam–plasma interactions and results in specific feature appearing in the local spectrum. Our results, corroborated with numerical simulations, can be extended to a wider range of heliocentric distances.

Energetic solar flare events in relation with subionospheric impact on 6-10 September 2017: data and modeling

Energetic solar flare events in relation with subionospheric impact on 6-10 September 2017: data and modeling

Unstable Phenomena in Stable Magnetospheres: Searching for Radio Flares from Magnetic OBA Stars Using VCSS

Although the majority of hot magnetic stars have extremely stable, ∼kilogauss strength surface magnetic fields with simple topologies, a subset undergoes small-scale explosions due to centrifugal breakout. The resulting small-scale flares are typically below the sensitivity of current magnetospheric diagnostics and do not generate detectable transient signatures. However, a recently reported radio flare from the hot magnetic star CU Vir suggests that some of the most energetic events do reach detectable levels. Motivated by this, we searched for transient radio sources in the first two epochs of the VLITE Commensal Sky Survey at the positions of 761 hot magnetic stars. We report three detections. A false-association analysis shows a less-than-1% probability that the sources are imaging artifacts. We then examine the stellar parameters of the three stars to understand if they are likely to produce flares. We conclude that while at this stage, we cannot make a definitive association of the detections with the stars, the current data are consistent with the hypothesis that the flares originate in the stellar magnetospheres.

Twisted magnetar magnetospheres

ABSTRACT Magnetar magnetospheres are strongly twisted, and are able to power sudden energetic events through the rapid release of stored electromagnetic energy. In this paper, we investigate twisted relativistic force-free axisymmetric magnetospheres of rotating neutron stars. We obtain numerical solutions of such configurations using the method of simultaneous relaxation for the magnetic field inside and outside the light-cylinder. We introduce a toroidal magnetic field in the region of closed field-lines that is associated with a poloidal electric current distribution in that region, and explore various mathematical expressions for that distribution. We find that, by increasing the twist, a larger fraction of magnetic field-lines crosses the light-cylinder and opens up to infinity, thus increasing the size of the polar caps and enhancing the spin-down rate. We also find that, for moderately to strongly twisted magnetospheres, the region of closed field-lines ends at some distance inside the light-cylinder. We discuss the implications of these solutions on the variation of magnetar spin-down rates, moding and nulling of pulsars, the relation between the angular shear and the twist, and the overall shape of the magnetosphere.

Fermi Constraints on the Ejecta Speed and Prompt Emission Region of the Distant GRB 220101A

At redshift z = 4.618, GRB 220101A is the most distant gamma-ray burst (GRB) detected by Fermi/LAT to date. It is also a very energetic event, with an equivalent isotropic energy of 3.6 × 1054 erg. We jointly analyzed the Fermi/GBM and LAT observations of GRB 220101A with two independent approaches and found a significant spectral break at sub-100 MeV energies during the prompt emission. The fast variability of the emission suggests that this spectral attenuation is caused by internal opacity to pair creation. Regardless of the nature of the emission processes assumed in the spectral analysis, we infer a moderate value for the jet Lorentz factor, Γ ∼ 110, and find that all of the high-energy emission was produced above and near the photosphere, at a distance of ∼1014 cm from the central engine. We compare these results with the four other LAT-detected GRBs with similar properties.

Estimation of Energy Spectrum of Precipitating Magnetospheric Electrons Based on Bremsstrahlung X‐Ray Fluxes Recorded in the Atmosphere

AbstractNumerous energetic electron precipitation events were recorded since 1963 in the atmosphere at polar latitudes in the course of regular measurements of charged particle fluxes in the Earth's atmosphere being performed by the Lebedev Physical Institute. The experimental data obtained represent the only uniform database in the world on electron precipitation events recorded directly in the atmosphere well below satellite orbits. The precipitating electrons are absorbed in the upper atmosphere. However, they generate X‐rays that can penetrate deep into the atmosphere sometimes down to altitudes of 20–35 km accessible to balloon measurements. These experimental data allow studying energy, temporal and spatial characteristics of electron precipitation events. In particular, based on PLANETOCOSMICS/GEANT4 we developed a method for evaluating the energy spectra of the primary flux of precipitating electrons. This method was used for evaluation of primary spectra of precipitating electrons assuming exponential energy distribution of incident electrons. Now, for the development of the method, we present the possibility of determining the energy spectra of electrons in the power‐law form, using new software RUSCOSMICS code. This new method, based on the GEANT4 software, makes it possible to describe the transport of precipitating electrons in the atmosphere taking into account the evolution of the energy and pitch‐angle distributions of electrons and X‐ray photons.

Discovery of Seven Volcanic Outbursts on Io from an Infrared Telescope Facility Observation Campaign, 2016–2022

This study analyzes near-infrared measurements of Io, Jupiter's moon, observed over 170 nights from 2016 to early 2022 using the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF). During this period, seven new volcanic outbursts—the most energetic volcanic events on Io—were discovered and characterized, increasing the total number of observed outburst events from 18 to 25. We also present simplified criteria for the thermal detection of an outburst, requiring it to be both confined to a specific location of Io and above a threshold intensity in the Lp band (3.8 μm).Our measurements use 2–5 μm photometry in eclipse, Jupiter occultation, and reflected sunlight. In addition to extending the observational data set of Io's dynamic activity, these data provide insights into the temporal and spatial distribution of outbursts on Io. Notably, all seven outbursts were detected in Io's trailing hemisphere. These include Pillan Patera and a newly discovered repeating outburst location at Acala Fluctus. We add these events to the rare category of recurring outbursts; before this, Tvashtar was the only known example. We observed that another outburst at UP 254W decreased in Lp-band intensity by a factor of 2 in 4.5 hr. In 2021 August, Io exhibited high volcanic activity when two powerful outbursts rapidly appeared, propagating east. Our findings underscore IRTF's ongoing contributions to the study of Io.

Neutrino flares of radio blazars observed from TeV to PeV

ABSTRACT Radio blazars have been linked both to individual high-energy neutrino events and to excesses in likelihood sky maps constructed from lower-energy neutrino data. However, the exact mechanism by which neutrinos are produced in these sources is still unknown. Here, we demonstrate that IceCube neutrinos with energies over 200 TeV, which were previously associated with bright radio blazars, are significantly more likely to be accompanied by flares of lower-energy events, compared to those lacking blazar counterparts. The parsec-scale core radio flux density of blazars, positioned within the error regions of energetic events, is strongly correlated with the likelihood of a day-scale lower-energy neutrino flare in directional and temporal coincidence with the high-energy event, reported by IceCube. The probability of a chance correlation is 3.6 × 10−4. This confirms the neutrino-blazar connection in a new and independent way, and provides valuable clues to understanding the origin of astrophysical neutrinos.

A High-mass, Young Star-forming Core Escaping from Its Parental Filament

We studied the unique kinematic properties in massive filament G352.63-1.07 at 103 au spatial scale with the dense molecular tracers observed with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array. We find the central massive core M1 (12 M ⊙) being separated from the surrounding filament with a velocity difference of and a transverse separation within 3″. Meanwhile, as shown in multiple dense-gas tracers, M1 has a spatial extension closely aligned with the main filament and is connected to the filament toward both its ends. M1 thus represents a very beginning state for a massive, young star-forming core escaping from the parental filament, within a timescale of ∼4000 yr. Based on its kinetic energy (3.5 × 1044 erg), the core escape is unlikely solely due to the original filament motion or magnetic field but requires more energetic events such as a rapid intense anisotropic collapse. The released energy also seems to noticeably increase the environmental turbulence. This may help the filament to become stabilized again.

Wave Forcing Assessment at Regional Scale in a Climate Change Scenario: The Sardinia Case Study

In recent decades, the world’s population is progressively shifting towards coastal areas, and it is estimated that it could reach 1 billion by 2050. On the other hand, meteocean forcings show increasing modification in terms of the occurrence and frequency of energetic events related to climate change trends. Then, the definition of adaptation strategies is crucial to managing coastal areas, especially in the most densely populated or highly valued tourist and environmental areas. Meaningful long-term strategies should then be based on quantitative estimation of future scenarios in a changing climate. Although most of the studies in the literature focus on extreme events, this paper aims to assess, through synthetic indicators, whether and how average and mild energy conditions related to wave climate will vary considering the current situation compared to future projections. The study is based on the analysis of wave data. The projection of average and mild energy conditions can indeed influence, just for example, the long-term morphodynamics of sandy beaches and the quality of bathing waters. Data extracted from the Copernicus database are considered. The methodology has been applied to the case of Sardinia island at a regional scale. Then, the aim of this paper is twofold: on the one hand, a method is proposed to evaluate the variation of average and mild wave conditions; on the other hand, it aims to apply the method to the case study of the Sardinia coastal area to highlight its feasibility. Results confirm that variations are expected. In the analyzed case study, it emerges that, on average, the long-term evolution of the wave climate shows a tendency toward intensification, while a decrease in the frequency of calm conditions is estimated. The average annual number of events undergoes an increase. Moreover, changes in wave directional sectors are observed, which, from being unimodal, are estimated to exhibit bimodal characteristics in particular on the west coast of the island.