End Of April Research Articles

New statistical RI index allow to better track the dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy

COVID-19 pandemic in Italy displayed a spatial distribution that made the tracking of its time course quite difficult. The most relevant anomaly was the marked spatial heterogeneity of COVID-19 diffusion. Lombardia region accounted for around 60% of fatal cases (while hosting 15% of Italian population). Moreover, 86% of fatalities concentrated in four Northern Italy regions. The ‘explosive’ outbreak of COVID-19 in Lombardia at the very beginning of pandemic fatally biased the R-like statistics routinely used to control the disease dynamics. To (at least partially) overcome this bias, we propose a new index RI = dH/dI (daily derivative ratio of H and I, given H = Healed and I = Infected), corresponding to the ratio between healed and infected patients relative daily changes. The proposed index is less flawed than R by the uncertainty related to the estimated number of infected persons and allows to follow (and possibly forecast) epidemic dynamics in a largely model-independent way. To analyze the dynamics of the epidemic, starting from the beginning of the virus spreading—when data are insufficient to make an estimate by adopting SIR model—a "sigmoidal family with delay" logistic model was introduced. That approach allowed in estimating the epidemic peak using the few data gathered even before mid-March. Based on this analysis, the peak was correctly predicted to occur by end of April. Analytical methodology of the dynamics of the epidemic we are proposing herein aims to forecast the time and intensity of the epidemic peak (forward prediction), while allowing identifying the (more likely) beginning of the epidemic (backward prediction). In addition, we established a relationship between hospitalization in intensive care units (ICU) versus deaths daily rates by avoiding the necessity to rely on precise estimates of the infected fraction of the population The joint evolution of the above parameters over time allows for a trustworthy and unbiased estimation of the dynamics of the epidemic, allowing us to clearly detect the qualitatively different character of the ‘so-called’ second wave with respect to the previous epidemic peak.

Timing it right: Tips for planning remote meetings across time zones

Timing it right: Tips for planning remote meetings across time zones

Early-season mapping of winter wheat in China based on Landsat and Sentinel images

Abstract. Early-season crop identification is of great importance for monitoring crop growth and predicting yield for decision makers and private sectors. As one of the largest producers of winter wheat worldwide, China outputs more than 18 % of the global production of winter wheat. However, there are no distribution maps of winter wheat over a large spatial extent with high spatial resolution. In this study, we applied a phenology-based approach to distinguish winter wheat from other crops by comparing the similarity of the seasonal changes of satellite-based vegetation index over all croplands with a standard seasonal change derived from known winter wheat fields. Especially, this study examined the potential of early-season large-area mapping of winter wheat and developed accurate winter wheat maps with 30 m spatial resolution for 3 years (2016–2018) over 11 provinces, which produce more than 98 % of the winter wheat in China. A comprehensive assessment based on survey samples revealed producer's and user's accuracies higher than 89.30 % and 90.59 %, respectively. The estimated winter wheat area exhibited good correlations with the agricultural statistical area data at the municipal and county levels. In addition, the earliest identifiable time of the geographical location of winter wheat was achieved by the end of March, giving a lead time of approximately 3 months before harvest, and the optimal identifiable time of winter wheat was at the end of April with an overall accuracy of 89.88 %. These results are expected to aid in the timely monitoring of crop growth. The 30 m winter wheat maps in China are available via an open-data repository (DOI: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.12003990, Dong et al., 2020a).

Epdemiology of coronavirus disease 2020 (COVID-19) in Algeria

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was reported in Algeria on 25 February 2020. Since then the number of positive cases has reached 42 619, and 1465 deaths have occurred. The current manuscript aims to describe epidemiological indicators and the measures implemented to halt the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in Algeria. This work showed that the urgency in the implementation of containment measures has been associated with relative control of the epidemic despite two peaks in the epidemic curve, at the end of April and in mid-July. Since early August, the number of daily cases has decreased and the government has started a second step in relaxing containment.

COVID-19 Infection Process in Italy and Spain: Are Data Talking? Evidence From ARMA and Vector Autoregression Models.

COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) has spread successfully worldwide in a matter of weeks. After the example of China, all the affected countries are taking hard-confinement measures to control the infection and to gain some time to reduce the significant amount of cases that arrive at the hospital. Although the measures in China reduced the percentages of new cases, this is not seen in other countries that have taken similar measures, such as Italy and Spain. After the first weeks, the worry was whether or not the healthcare system would collapse rather than its response to the patient's needs who are infected and require hospitalization. Using China as a mirror of what could happen in our countries and with the data available, we calculated a model that forecasts the peak of the curve of infection, hospitalization, and ICU bed numbers. We aimed to review the patterns of spread of the virus in the two countries and their regions, looking for similarities that reflect the existence of a typical path in this expansive virulence and the effects of the intervention of the authorities with drastic isolation measures, to contain the outbreak. A model based on Autorregressive and moving average models (ARMA) methodology and including Chinese disease pattern as a proxy, predicts the contagious pattern robustly. Based on the prediction, the hospitalization and intensive care unit (ICU) requirements were also calculated. Results suggest a reduction in the speed of contagion during April in both countries, earlier in Spain than in Italy. The forecast advanced a significant increase in the ICU needs for Spain surpassing 8,000 units by the end of April, but for Italy, ICU needs would decrease in the same period, according to the model. We present the following predictions to inform political leaders because they have the responsibility to maintain the national health systems away from collapsing. We are confident these data could help them into decision-taking and place the capitals (from hospital beds to human resources) into the right place.

Enhanced Meiyu‐Baiu Rainfall in Early Summer 2020: Aftermath of the 2019 Super IOD Event

AbstractIn early summer 2020, the Meiyu‐Baiu rainfall was markedly enhanced, triggering devastating floods in Japan and central China. We examined the underlying processes using a climate model and analysis. The enhanced Meiyu‐Baiu rainfall was reasonably predicted by the climate model initialized at the end of April. The sensitivity experiment indicated that Indian Ocean (IO) warming enhanced the Meiyu‐Baiu rainfall. Moreover, we found that the warm IO condition can be traced back to the super Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in 2019. The IO warmth was influenced by successive processes: record strong downwelling Rossby waves excited by the IOD and tripole sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical IO‐western Pacific, their arrival to the southwestern IO in spring, and associated modulation of monsoon flow. The results suggest that the seasonal predictability of the Meiyu‐Baiu rainfall in 2020 originated from the super IOD.

Distinctive spring phytoplankton bloom in the Bering Strait in 2018: A year of historically minimum sea ice extent

Under climate change, the Bering–Chukchi continental shelves have experienced drastic sea ice loss, breaking the minimum sea ice extent record in 2018. In this paper, we report a distinctive spring phytoplankton bloom in the Bering Strait based on year-round mooring observations during 2016–2018. A near-bottom fluorescence sensor mounted on a mooring and satellite observations indicate that, despite the early sea ice retreat in spring of 2018 (mid-April), the spring phytoplankton bloom was not observed for more than 20 days after sea ice retreat. In contrast, in 2017 when sea ice retreat did not occur as early as it did in 2018 (early May), the bloom and sea ice retreat occurred in tighter synchrony. Mooring (2016–2018) and satellite observations (2003–2011, 2013–2018) suggest that an open-water bloom rather than an ice-edge bloom occurred in the Bering Strait in the spring of 2018. Early sea ice retreat apparently provided unfavorable conditions for an ice-edge bloom due to weak sunlight and winter-like weather. Mid-winter sea ice loss was promoted by unusual southerly winds, bringing in warm water from the south. For the Bering Strait, the end of April is a reference date for sea ice retreat that distinguishes between an open-water bloom and an ice-edge bloom, which is approximately one month later than that in the southeastern Bering Sea.

COVID-19 and residential care facilities: issues and concerns identified by the international network prevention of elder abuse (INPEA)

PurposeThe COVID-19 pandemic has affected the physical, psychological, social and financial health of older persons. On this subject, the United Nations published a policy brief on the impact of COVID-19 on older persons in May 2020. In line with this, the purpose of this general review is to address three issues affecting older persons living in residential care facilities: protective measures implemented to block the virus’ entry, the types of mistreatment most frequently experienced and the necessity to promote and defend the rights of these persons.Design/methodology/approachThe design of this study is based on input gathered since the end of April during meetings of the International Network for the Prevention of Elder Abuse (INPEA) and the results of a July survey of its members.FindingsThe survey results indicate variability in the implementation of protective measures in different countries and the significant presence of mistreatment and violation of the rights of older persons. Three major issues demand attention: ageism, systemic and managerial problems and the effects of implemented measures. All these prompt the INPEA to once again plea for the adoption of an international convention of human rights of older persons.Originality/valueTo our knowledge, this is the first article sharing the views of the INPEA from a global perspective in the context of COVID-19.

Effect of mitigation measures on the spreading of COVID-19 in hard-hit states in the U.S.

State government-mandated social distancing measures have helped to slow the growth of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Many of the current predictive models of the development of COVID-19, especially after mitigation efforts, partially rely on extrapolations from data collected in other countries. Since most states enacted stay-at-home orders towards the end of March, the resulting effects of social distancing should be reflected in the death and infection counts by the end of April. Using the data available through April 25th, we investigate the change in the infection rate due to the mitigation efforts and project death and infection counts through September 2020 for some of the most heavily impacted states: New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, Illinois, and Louisiana. We find that with the current mitigation efforts, five of those six states have reduced their base reproduction number to a value less than one, stopping the exponential growth of the pandemic. We also project different scenarios after the mitigation is relaxed.

Preface

The International Conference on Information Technologies in Business and Industries (ITBI-2020) was held at Novosibirsk State Technical University, Russia, on April 6–8, 2020.In the late 90th, the Information Technology in Industries was one of the sessions of the Conference on Mechanical Engineering, Automation and Control Systems (MEACS). In 2016 the organizing committee of MEACS made a decision to hold sessions on control systems, enterprise information systems, applied math as an independent event that was titled “Information Technologies in Business and Industries” (ITBI). The usual venues of the conference are well-known scientific centers in Russian Western Siberia.In 2020, ITBI for the second time took place at Novosibirsk State Technical University. Today Novosibirsk is the largest scientific center in Russia and in the Commonwealth of Independent States. For the past several years the event become a well-recognized regional forum for researchers in the field of computer science, instrumentation, and control engineering. Despite the peculiarities, the conference attracted several participants from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, and China.Unfortunately, global pandemic affected the event in a bad way. For the first time, the conference was postponed to April. Due to the fact that lockdown in Russia was expected to be extended until summer, as well as global travel restrictions, organizers took the time to prepare virtual sessions.The plenary session was held on 6th April in the virtual BigBlueButton room. All other session meetings were held in the same fashion in the following two days. The time limits for the delivery of a report remain the same as before. Regretfully, the university server was not yet prepared for the load at the time of the event, so the number of concurrent participants of theremote meetings was restricted to a few dozens. However, more than 200 hundred unique participants attended meetings. After the conference, by the end of April, all video-on-demand files were shared among the participants. The authors were encouraged to address their postevent questions to other participants publicly via NSTU forum or privately via email.The papers selected among a hundred qualified submissions cover a wide range of topics within the fields of computer science, industrial automation, and instrumentation engineering. All submissions were reviewed by the editors and by the expert referee from the program committee. The 209 accepted manuscripts were included in the volume.The committee is proud to express gratitude to all organizers and participants as well as to technical staff members who prepared the virtual meetings in such a limited time. Apart from it, the committee wants to apologize to speakers for the inconvenience and restrictions. In conclusion, the committee thanks all the authors and editors who contributed their time and effort to comprise and polish this volume. Organizing Committee of ITBI-2020 Edited by: Eugeniy Porsev, professor, Novosibirsk State Technical University Valeriy Avramchuk, professor Tomsk Polytechnic University Boris Malozemov, PhD, Novosibirsk State Technical University

Performance of rapid IgM-IgG combined antibody tests in the occupational surveillance of COVID-19 in Colombian enterprises

ResumenIntroducción. Las pruebas combinadas de IgM e IgG rápidas pueden tener un papel importante en la vigilancia de la COVID-19 y en su diagnóstico, así como en la evaluación de la respuesta inmunológica y la verificación de los avances hacia la inmunidad de rebaño. Objetivo. Evaluar el desempeño de las pruebas rápidas de anticuerpos en la vigilancia ocupacional de la COVID-19 en un grupo de empresas colombianas. Materiales y métodos. Se usaron datos de la vigilancia ocupacional de empresas que hicieron pruebas serológicas periódicas a todo el personal desde finales de abril hasta comienzos de julio de 2020. Los trabajadores laboraban en grupos pequeños ("burbujas sociales") para evitar brotes y optimizar la vigilancia. La sensibilidad se estimó como si el muestreo respondiera a un diseño prospectivo. Se describieron, asimismo, los cambios en las pruebas serológicas por medio de rondas periódicas.Resultados. Se obtuvieron datos de 4.740 trabajadores, de los cuales solo 23 eran sintomáticos. En ellos se evidenciaron cambios de IgM(-)/IgG(-) a IgM(+), y luego a IgM(+)/ IgG(+) e IgG(+). La sensibilidad fue de 40,94 % para las IgM(+) y 47,95 % para las IgM(+)/ IgG(+), lo que implica que se pudo detectar un poco menos de la mitad de los casos. Conclusión. Las pruebas rápidas de anticuerpos tienen un papel en el proceso diagnóstico de la infección y deben evaluarse teniendo en cuenta el momento de la epidemia, el tipo de prueba comprada y las poblaciones de riesgo, dado que sus resultados dependen del número de contagios y de casos. En el contexto de la presente crisis sanitaria pueden optimizarse si se organizan los trabajadores en "burbujas sociales".

Working conditions and health in Spain during the COVID-19 pandemic: Minding the gap

BackgroundThe emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic has had major consequences in the workplace, both in terms of the number of cases among the working population and the enormous changes made to cope with it. The objective of this study is to describe the impact of COVID-19 on the working conditions and health of wage-earners in Spain. MethodsCross-sectional study carried out between the end of April and the end of May 2020 among the wage-earning population. Sample included n = 20,328 participants obtained through an online survey. ResultsA situation of high-strain was reported by 44.3% of workers, 42.6% were concerned about possible job loss, 75.6% about finding a new job if they lost the present one, 69.7% were worried about salary reduction, 68% about becoming infected at work and 72.3% of being a transmitter of the virus. Among those who regularly went to work, 13.1% did so with symptoms compatible with COVID-19 and 71.2% stated that they had done so without adequate protection measures. 36.7% of workers believe that their health worsened, 41.6% had severe trouble sleeping during the last month, 55.1% were at risk of poor mental health and consumption more than doubled of tranquilisers and opioid analgesics, compared to the pre-pandemic situation. ConclusionThe impact of COVID-19 on the wage-earning population has been enormous, with high exposures to harmful working conditions and very poor health indicators, which, compared to the pre-pandemic situation, means significant deterioration. Important inequalities are observed according to class, gender, age and wage.

Case report of severe PCR-confirmed COVID-19 myocarditis in a European patient manifesting in mid January 2020.

BackgroundViral genesis is the most common cause of myocarditis. COVID-19-associated myocarditis seems to be a notable extrapulmonary manifestation, which may result in the need for a different treatment. There has been no positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing of SARS-CoV-2 in heart specimens, thus far.Case summaryA 48-year-old male patient presented with fever, dyspnoea, and haemoptysis. Laboratory findings showed highly elevated inflammatory and cardiac damage markers. Thoracic computed tomography (CT) revealed bilateral, patchy peripheral ground-glass opacities with a crazy-paving pattern, focal consolidations, and mild pleural effusions. Cardiac imaging with echocardiography and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) detected a reduced biventricular function. MRI additionally showed myocardial oedema and late gadolinium enhancement. Lung and heart biopsies were performed, revealing alveolitis with necrosis and acute lymphocytic myocarditis. Testing for usual cardiotropic viruses was negative, and no aspects of vasculitis or granuloma could be found. Due to fulfilling the criteria, the patient was diagnosed with rheumatic vasculitis. Treatment with cyclophosphamide and steroids was initiated. Later, the patient reported a history of travel to Tyrol in mid January. Consequently, PCR testing for SARS-CoV-2 was performed, which was positive in the heart specimen. Immunosuppressive treatment was discontinued. During a follow-up visit at the end of April, the patient’s recovery was stable.DiscussionIn COVID-19 infections, myocardial inflammation can be present as an extrapulmonary manifestation. Positive PCR testing confirms myocardial invasion of the virus. Imaging and laboratory studies correlate with the histopathological findings, and thus should be performed in COVID-19 patients who are suspicious for myocarditis. Supportive treatment with steroids may be useful in these patients.

Variability in glacier albedo and links to annual mass balance for the gardens of Eden and Allah, Southern Alps, New Zealand

Abstract. The gardens of Eden and Allah (GoEA) are two of New Zealand's largest ice fields. However, their remote location and protected conservation status have limited access and complicated monitoring and research efforts. To improve our understanding of the spatial and temporal changes in mass balance of these unique ice fields, observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors are used to monitor annual minimum glacier-wide albedo (α¯yrmin) over the period 2000–2018. The α¯yrmin for 12 individual glaciers ranges between 0.42 and 0.70 and can occur as early as mid-January and as late as the end of April. The evolution of the timing of α¯yrmin indicates a shift to later in the summer over the 19-year period on 10 of the 12 glaciers. However, there is only a weak relationship between the delay in timing and the magnitude of α¯yrmin, which implies that albedo is not necessarily lower if it is delayed. The largest negative departures in α¯yrmin (lower-than-average albedo) are consistent with high snowline altitudes (SLAs) relative to the long-term average as determined from the End of Summer Snowline (EOSS) survey, which has been the benchmark for monitoring glaciers in the Southern Alps for over 40 years. While the record of α¯yrmin for Vertebrae Col 25, an index glacier of the EOSS survey and one of the GoEA glaciers, explains less than half of the variability observed in the corresponding EOSS SLA (R2=0.43, p=0.003), the relationship is stronger when compared to other GoEA glaciers. Angel Glacier has the strongest relationship with EOSS observations at Vertebrae Col 25, accounting for 69 % of its variance (p<0.001). A key advantage in using the α¯yrmin approach is that it enables variability in the response of individual glaciers to be explored, revealing that topographic setting plays a key role in addition to the regional climate signal. The observed variability in individual glacier response at the scale of the GoEA contrasts with the high consistency of responses found by the EOSS record across the Southern Alps and challenges the suggestion that New Zealand glaciers behave as a unified climatic unit. MODIS imagery acquired from the Terra and Aqua platforms also provides insights about the spatial and temporal variability in clouds. The frequency of clouds in pixels west of the Main Divide is as high as 90 % during summer months and reaches a minimum of 35 % in some locations in winter. These complex cloud interactions deserve further attention as they are likely a contributing factor in controlling the spatial and temporal variability in glacier response observed in the GoEA.

ON THE PROBLEM OF USING NATURAL BIOLOGICALLY ACTIVE SUBSTANCES TO ACTIVATE ARTEMIA EGGS

. Currently branchiopod from the genus of Artemia Leach, 1819 became the common starting feed №1 for growing young aquatic organisms. However, there is often reduced hatching of nauplius from the collected eggs and artificial activation is required. As a result of empirical research, it was possible to experimentally detect the activating effect of excretion products – diluted adult urine. The research was carried out in several stages. It was found that the rate of germination growth for different populations ranges from 0, 2 to 0, 6% per day. In the first experiment, cysts with 24% of hatching were placed in a solution of lake water diluted with urine to a concentration of 105 g/l. After two weeks, the outage reached 66. 7 % and exceeded the control 2.55 times. But over time, the activity of the embryos decreased and by the end of April, the hatching reached zero. By using eggs from the 1st experiment with 66. 9% hatching in a fresh solution of «lake water + urine» (105 g / l) on the first day, the hatching exceeded the control by 52. 1% and by 23.7% the data from experiment 1.Later, when 80.8% were hatched, a large number of weakened and dead nauplius was observed. In the third experiment, spring egg with a hatching rate of 36. 7% was used. Different salinity concentrations (110-140 g/l) were used due to dilution of lake water (233 g/l) with urine and fresh water. When activated in a solution with a salinity of 110 g/l after one month, the discharge exceeded the control by 1. 65 times. At the end of the experiments, an increase in the salt concentration reduced the activating effect with a slight decrease in hatching. The mechanisms of activating action of the components of the proposed liquid folds the physiological effects of steroid hormone metabolites on the formation of the larva in the egg and the destructive physical and chemical effects of a number of substances on the egg shell. For complex activation of the development of the embryo with the destruction of egg’s shells, savings are achieved in the plastic and energy substances available in the egg, preserving the nutritional value of nauplius.

Indirect Forecasting of the Number of Intensive Care Beds and Hospital Capacity for the COVID-19 Outbreak in Turkey Until the End of April

Indirect Forecasting of the Number of Intensive Care Beds and Hospital Capacity for the COVID-19 Outbreak in Turkey Until the End of April

The effect of the coronavirus disease 2019 lockdown on type A acute aortic dissection: Insights from Bologna.

This document is intended to provide an overview of the incidence and characteristics of acute type A aortic dissection in Bologna during the month of severe restrictions imposed by the National Italian government due to COVID-19 pandemic. Aspects on management and time to intervention are outlined.

Changing Pattern of Rainfall Amount and Raindays in Samaru, Northern Nigeria and Their Implications on Crop Production

The rainfall amount and number of rainy days determines the length of growing season, which equally determines the types of crops to be planted in a particular region. This study analyzed the pattern of rainfall in Samaru Zaria, Kaduna State, Northern part of Nigeria from 1961-2017 using data collected from the Institute for Agricultural Research Samaru, Zaria. The result from this research reveals that an inverse relationship exists between the amount of rainfall and the rainy days. Hence, the higher the rainfall amount the lower the rainy days and vice versa. This is attributed to the current change in climate which increases the intensity of annual rainfall but shortens the duration of the rainy days. The equations generated for amount of rainfall pattern was (y= 3.162x - 5270.9) and number of rainy days was obtained as (y = -0.172x + 417.85). As expected, the months of November to March had the lowest mean rainy days (MRDs) <1 day. As a recurrent pattern for the period of study, the onset of appreciable rainy days was observed in the month of April and the number of rainy days increased steadily to reach its peak in August and a sharp decline in October. From the obtained data, the onset and cessation of rainfall could be predicted to fall towards the end of April and September respectively.

Prognostic value and prevalence of complete right bundle branch block in an elderly population: a community-based 10-year prospective study.

Complete right bundle branch block (CRBBB) occurs in 0.2% to 1.3% of the general population, but its prognostic significance in the geriatric population is unknown. We prospectively investigated the prevalence and prognostic value of CRBBB in individuals aged ≥65 years in a community-based population in Taiwan. A total of 5,830 community-dwelling individuals were prospectively recruited from 7 regions across Taiwan starting in December 2008 through March 2013. Those aged ≥65 years were included in the analysis (N=3,383). All subjects underwent a home visit and standardized medical exams and were followed up annually until the end of April 2019; cause of death was documented by citizen death records. The mean age of the study cohort was 73.5±5.9 years (65-104), and 47.21% were men. Among these individuals, 171 (5.05%) had CRBBB; the prevalence was higher in men (7.08%) than in women (3.25%). Subjects with CRBBB were older than those without CRBBB (75.4±6.5 vs. 73.4±5.9), and the frequency of CRBBB increased with age. Survival analysis revealed that all-cause mortality and cardiac mortality were similar in individuals with and without CRBBB during a mean follow-up of 92.6±23.6 months. CRBBB is not associated with increased risk of mortality in the geriatric population.

Observed reduction in the diagnosis of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in children during the COVID-19 pandemic.

To contain the spread of the new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the Norwegian government implemented lock-down restrictions from 13.03.2020: schools, day cares and after-school activities were closed, 2-week quarantine was required following international travel, physical distancing (2 metres) was recommended and groups were restricted to 5 people.