Endangered Areas Research Articles

A decision‐support scheme for mapping endangered areas in pest risk analysis*

This paper describes a decision‐support scheme (DSS) for mapping the area where economically important loss is likely to occur (the endangered area). It has been designed by the PRATIQUE project to help pest risk analysts address the numerous risk mapping challenges and decide on the most suitable methods to follow. The introduction to the DSS indicates the time and expertise that is needed, the data requirements and the situations when mapping the endangered areas is most useful. The DSS itself has four stages. In stage 1, the key factors that influence the endangered area are identified, the data are assembled and, where appropriate, maps of the key factors are produced listing any significant assumptions. In stage 2, methods for combining these maps to identify the area of potential establishment and the area at highest risk from pest impacts are described, documenting any assumptions and combination rules utilised. When possible and appropriate, Stage 3 can then be followed to show whether economic loss will occur in the area at highest risk and to identify the endangered area. As required, Stage 4, described elsewhere, provides techniques for producing a dynamic picture of the invasion process using a suite of spread models. To illustrate how the DSS functions, a maize pest, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera, and a freshwater invasive alien plant, Eichhornia crassipes, have been used as examples.

Scientific Opinion on the evaluation of the pest risk analysis onPomacea insularum, the island apple snail, prepared by the Spanish Ministry of Environment and Rural and Marine Affairs

The Panel considers the Spanish pest risk analysis (PRA) to be clear and to provide appropriate supporting evidence. However, (i) the environmental impact assessment is incomplete and (ii) the estimates for the potentially endangered area are too limited. The Panel points out that large areas of the European Union have climatic conditions, that are very similar to those of the areas of native distribution of Pomacea spp. snails, and suitable host plants are available. The Panel agrees with the Spanish PRA on the following points with regard to the risk assessment area: (i) the potential consequences of the organism for rice crops are major; (ii) the probability for establishment of the organism is very likely and (iii) the probability of spread is estimated as likely. The Panel disagrees with the Spanish PRA on the following points and considers (i) the effects on the environment to be massive under suitable environmental conditions in the PRA area and (ii) the probability of entry of the organism to be high. Regarding risk reduction options the Panel agrees with the Spanish PRA that no single risk reduction method is sufficient to halt the introduction and spread of Pomacea spp. snails in the PRA area. However, a legislative ban on import of Pomacea spp. is the only risk reduction option identified that can reduce the probability of entry. The many other risk reduction options listed will help to reduce the probability of spread within the PRA area. The Panel considers that the risk reduction options should target the canaliculata complex, as Pomacea insularum and P. canaliculata, as well as other species from the complex, are almost indistinguishable. This is of particular importance for risk reduction options addressing both breeding and trade of the organism. © European Food Safety Authority, 2012

Hazard assessment investigations due to recent changes in Triftgletscher, Bernese Alps, Switzerland

Abstract. The details and the consequences of the recent retreat of Triftgletscher (Gadmertal, Bernese Alps, Switzerland) have been investigated. Geodetic volume changes indicate a strong decrease since 1929 while the position of the terminus remained practically unchanged until 1990. The role played by calving in the tongue retreat running from 2000 to 2006 is confirmed by means of a mass balance model including a calving criterion. Results show that without calving, it would have taken two years longer for the lake to form than has been observed. The consequences of the ensuing tongue destabilization are surveyed, first with an ice avalanche model and second with a hydraulic study of the potential impulse wave triggered by the impact of the falling ice mass in the lake. Results point out that ice avalanches with volumes greater that 1 × 106 m3 will flow into the lake and that in the worst scenario, a discharge of 400 m3 s−1 is expected to reach the endangered area in Gadmertal 11 min after the break-off. In order to detect surface motion precursors to such ice avalanches, a photographic monitoring system was installed. The results indicate seasonal variations with peak velocity in summer and no significant change during the other months. Spectacular velocity increases were not observed so far.

Evaluation of the Load Carrying Capacity of a Rockfall Protection Gallery

Mountainous areas of Switzerland are exposed to complex natural conditions, which combined with climate changes cause a variety of natural hazards. Rockfall is one of these hazards, and the risk associated with it tends to increase in recent years. The roads below the Lopper cliff at the shore of Lake Lucerne lead through one of these endangered areas. The roads are closed for traffic, following a rockfall incident in October 2009. Some rockfall protection galleries at the Lopper, which were built during 1979-1981, are subjected to a structural evaluation to allow for decisions on their further use. The current work covers estimation of the impact load carrying capacity of one of these galleries. The gallery analyzed is a cantilever pre-stressed concrete slab with variable thickness, covered by a cushion layer of soil. The behavior of the gallery is examined using finite element analyses as well as an analytical model based on a System of Multiple Degrees of Freedom (SMDF) method. The evaluation has shown that for the chosen loading case based on trajectory analyses with return periods of 30 years, the load carrying capacity of the gallery is satisfactory. However, for extreme rockfalls with return periods of 100 years, a local (punching) failure as well as a global (bending) failure can happen given that a critical section is hit

The usability of selected base maps for crises management—users' perspectives

Cartography has become an important tool for supporting decision-making processes in the field of crisis management. Maps (or GIS) can be used for solving various problems, e.g. the localization of accident site, the delimitation of endangered areas, the formulation of evacuation plans and others. People involved in decision-making processes use various procedures to solve these problems. However, a suitable and efficient form of cartographic support for particular situations and crisis management cycle stages is still missing. The main goal of the experiment was twofold. First, we wanted to assess the interdisciplinary (cartography–psychology) web-based testing environment and achieve the first usability results. Second, the use of different cartographic base map representations was analysed in order to judge the efficiency for specific situations. Testing was focused on various types of tasks, e.g. simple sign selection, the possibility of memorizing important information from the map and the choice of the optimal evacuation route. The overall testing was performed within the interactive web environment, based on predefined templates, automatically recorded and calibrated against the evaluation of the pretest users’ abilities. Preliminary testing results provide valuable inputs concerning the usability of selected base maps for supporting decision-making processes during various crisis situations.

Assessment of debris-flow susceptibility at medium-scale in the Barcelonnette Basin, France

Abstract. Debris flows are among the most dangerous processes in mountainous areas due to their rapid rate of movement and long runout zone. Sudden and rather unexpected impacts produce not only damages to buildings and infrastructure but also threaten human lives. Medium- to regional-scale susceptibility analyses allow the identification of the most endangered areas and suggest where further detailed studies have to be carried out. Since data availability for larger regions is mostly the key limiting factor, empirical models with low data requirements are suitable for first overviews. In this study a susceptibility analysis was carried out for the Barcelonnette Basin, situated in the southern French Alps. By means of a methodology based on empirical rules for source identification and the empirical angle of reach concept for the 2-D runout computation, a worst-case scenario was first modelled. In a second step, scenarios for high, medium and low frequency events were developed. A comparison with the footprints of a few mapped events indicates reasonable results but suggests a high dependency on the quality of the digital elevation model. This fact emphasises the need for a careful interpretation of the results while remaining conscious of the inherent assumptions of the model used and quality of the input data.

Risk assessment of Gibberella circinata for the EU territory and identification and evaluation of risk management options

The Panel on Plant Health was asked to provide a risk assessment for Gibberella circinata Nirenberg and O'Donnell, for the EU territory, and to identify and evaluate effectiveness of risk management options in reducing the risk posed by the organism. G. circinata is presently not listed in Council Directive 2000/29/EC. Outbreaks of the organism have been reported in EU (in Spain, Italy, France and Portugal). The risk assessment indicates that, in parts of the European Union, there is risk of pitch canker affecting the host species (pine and Douglas-fir). Entry into and spread within the European Union are considered very likely. The organism has a very high potential for establishment. The following pathways for entry have been identified: contaminated seed and other propagation material, different forms of wood material, plant material for decorative purposes, soil and growing substrates, natural means (wind, wind-blown rain, insects and other animals carrying spores) and human activities. Based on host distribution and climatic conditions, the potentially endangered areas include wide areas of central and northern Portugal, northern and eastern Spain, south and coastal areas of France, coastal areas of Italy and parts of the coastal areas of Greece. In these areas, pine forests, including plantations and native forest, cover over 10 million hectares. Host species are also widely used as ornamentals. The potential consequences of pitch canker in the endangered areas are considered massive. At present there is no single means of controlling pitch canker. Consequently, an integrated disease management approach, which combines appropriate nursery and silvicultural practices, should be used to reduce the impact of the disease. The current legislation, including the provisional emergency measures (Commission Decision 2007/433/EC), is aimed at limiting the introduction of the organism but it may have only a limited effect on its spread.

Influences of the Process Chain on the Fatigue Behavior of Samples with Tension Screw Geometry

AbstractTo analyze the influence of the material batch, the structure of the manufacturing process chain, and the process parameters, four different material batches of the quenched and tempered steel SAE 4140 were used to manufacture samples with tension screw geometry. Five different, manufacturing process chains, consisting of the process steps heat treatment, turning, and grinding, were applied. After selected process steps, light and SEM micrographs as well as fatigue experiments were performed. The process itself as well as the process parameters influences the properties of the surface layers and the fatigue behavior in a characteristic manner. For example the variation of the feed rate and cutting speed in the hard‐turning process leads to significantly different mechanical properties of the surface layers and residual stress states, which could be correlated with the fatigue behavior. The cyclic deformation behavior of the investigated components can be benchmarked equivalently with stress–strain hysteresis as well as high precision temperature and electrical resistance measurements. The temperature and electrical resistance measurements are suitable for component applications and provide an enormous advantage of information about the fatigue behavior. The temperature changes of the failed areas of the samples with tension screw geometry were significantly higher, a reliable identification of endangered areas is thereby possible. A new test procedure, developed at the Institute of Materials Science and Engineering of the University of Kaiserslautern, with inserted load‐free‐states during constant amplitude loading, provides the opportunity to detect proceeding fatigue damage in components during inspections.

Impact of rainfall pattern on the occurrence of flash floods in Hungary

ash fl ood hazard mapping as part of the FFG system, in the present study we considered and included both passive environmental factors (PFB model), and randomly occurring active environmental factors (precipitation). Currently, we determined the (i) spatial and (ii) the temporal patterns and behavior of rainfall events in Hungary and prepared a hazard map that is based on both passive and active environmental factors (APFB model). Extreme rainfall pattern was analyzed both in time and space using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Hungarian Meteorological Services (HMS). Th e hazard map was then validated using HEC-HMS simulations and calculated threshold discharge values. Th e spatial pattern of extreme events indicates a strong orographic eff ect. Th e frequency of extreme precipitation is always higher on the watersheds of the PFB model with highest hazard, than in both the zone of the PFB model with the lowest hazard and the national average. Consequently, the vulnerability of the passive factor-based most endangered areas will be further enhanced by the higher frequency of extreme events. Temporal changes are ambiguous based on the long term observed data of extreme rainfall. Model indicated increase of extreme rainfall events is not clearly shown based on the employed HMS and NOAA data. However, a flcyclic pattern is clearly identifi able. Th e majority of the observed years was characterized with a lower-than-average number of extreme events. However, these long periods are interrupted with short spells (usually lasting a year or two) when the number of extreme events signifi cantly exceeded the mean value. Th e temporal frequency of fl ash fl ood events is lower than expected based on model validation processes. Th is discrepancy is likely to be explained by (i) the duration diff erence between the simulated rainfall period and the observed rainfall period, (ii) the overestimation of total runoff

Rockfall Protection as an Integral Task

Among the different natural hazards, rockfall has an important place even though other natural hazards could affect more people or have greater consequences. The phenomenon may be further classified according to the size of the largest blocks and the total rock mass involved. The risk management procedure can be divided into (a) hazard identification and description, (b) hazard assessment and (c) risk management and treatment. Initiation zones of rockfall are identified and characterized by using geodetic, geomorphic, geotechnical and historical data. Trajectories are analyzed and boulder impacts are modelled to identify endangered areas. A variety of methods exist to estimate the frequency of rockfall events. Finally, hazard maps are produced that indicate the hazard level based on the intensity and probability of rockfall events. Together with indications on the occupancy and vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure, risks can be calculated and compared with acceptable values for new projects and tolerable ones for existing assets. The most effective countermeasure is land-use planning to avoid dangerous areas. If this is not possible or existing assets have to be protected, geotechnical and structural mitigation measures are justified. They cover measures in the initiation zone, along the propagation path and in the deposit zone. The types of structure used are flexible barriers, galleries, embankments and dams, depending on the position of the protective measure and the available space, the energy to be absorbed and other functions the structures should fulfill. Structures are dimensioned to withstand the impact of a design block, taking into account the damping effect of a possible cushion layer and the dynamic response of the structure itself.

The representation and implementation of time-dependent inundation in large-scale microscopic evacuation simulations

Multi-agent simulation has increasingly been used for transportation simulation in recent years. With current techniques, it is possible to simulate systems consisting of several million agents. Such multi-agent simulations have been applied to whole cities and even large regions. In this paper it is demonstrated how to adapt an existing multi-agent transportation simulation framework to large-scale pedestrian evacuation simulation. The underlying flow model simulates the traffic-based on a simple queue model where only free speed, bottleneck capacities, and space constraints are taken into account. The queue simulation, albeit simple, captures the most important aspects of evacuations such as the congestion effects of bottlenecks and the time needed to evacuate the endangered area. In the case of an evacuation simulation the network has time-dependent attributes. For instance, large-scale inundations or conflagrations do not cover all the endangered area at once. These time-dependent attributes are modeled as network change events. Network change events are modifying link parameters at predefined points in time. The simulation framework is demonstrated through a case study for the Indonesian city of Padang, which faces a high risk of being inundated by a tsunami.

Integrated database for rapid mass movements in Norway

Abstract. Rapid gravitational slope mass movements include all kinds of short term relocation of geological material, snow or ice. Traditionally, information about such events is collected separately in different databases covering selected geographical regions and types of movement. In Norway the terrain is susceptible to all types of rapid gravitational slope mass movements ranging from single rocks hitting roads and houses to large snow avalanches and rock slides where entire mountainsides collapse into fjords creating flood waves and endangering large areas. In addition, quick clay slides occur in desalinated marine sediments in South Eastern and Mid Norway. For the authorities and inhabitants of endangered areas, the type of threat is of minor importance and mitigation measures have to consider several types of rapid mass movements simultaneously. An integrated national database for all types of rapid mass movements built around individual events has been established. Only three data entries are mandatory: time, location and type of movement. The remaining optional parameters enable recording of detailed information about the terrain, materials involved and damages caused. Pictures, movies and other documentation can be uploaded into the database. A web-based graphical user interface has been developed allowing new events to be entered, as well as editing and querying for all events. An integration of the database into a GIS system is currently under development. Datasets from various national sources like the road authorities and the Geological Survey of Norway were imported into the database. Today, the database contains 33 000 rapid mass movement events from the last five hundred years covering the entire country. A first analysis of the data shows that the most frequent type of recorded rapid mass movement is rock slides and snow avalanches followed by debris slides in third place. Most events are recorded in the steep fjord terrain of the Norwegian west coast, but major events are recorded all over the country. Snow avalanches account for most fatalities, while large rock slides causing flood waves and huge quick clay slides are the most damaging individual events in terms of damage to infrastructure and property and for causing multiple fatalities. The quality of the data is strongly influenced by the personal engagement of local observers and varying observation routines. This database is a unique source for statistical analysis including, risk analysis and the relation between rapid mass movements and climate. The database of rapid mass movement events will also facilitate validation of national hazard and risk maps.

Phytophthora lateralis

<i>Phytophthora lateralis</i>

PRATIQUE: a research project to enhance pest risk analysis techniques in the European Union

PRATIQUE is an EC‐funded 7th Framework research project designed to address the major challenges for pest risk analysis (PRA) in Europe. It has three principal objectives: (a) to assemble the datasets required to construct PRAs valid for the whole of the EU, (b) to conduct multi‐disciplinary research that enhances the techniques used in PRA and (c) to provide a decision support scheme for PRA that is efficient and user‐friendly. The research will be undertaken by scientists from 13 institutes in the EU and one each from Australia and New Zealand with subcontractors from institutes in China and Russia. They will produce a structured inventory of PRA datasets for the EU and undertake targeted research to improve existing procedures and develop new methods for (a) the assessment of economic, environmental and social impacts, (b) summarising risk while taking account of uncertainty, (c) mapping endangered areas (d) pathway risk analysis and systems approaches and (e) guiding actions during emergencies caused by outbreaks of harmful organisms. The results will be tested and provided as protocols, decision support systems and computer programs with examples of best practice linked to a computerised European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization (EPPO) PRA scheme.

MONITOR: Hazard monitoring for risk assessment and risk communication

Protection against natural disasters is an increasing challenge for society. In many areas the frequent occurrence of natural hazards such as, for example, floods, landslides and forest fires has become a constant threat for inhabitants, the habitat itself and its resources. The overall magnitude of damaging events in the last decade clearly shows the need for comprehensive and innovative risk management. It is absolutely necessary to implement controlling mechanisms for the protection of population, land use areas, infrastructure and the natural space in endangered areas. Therefore monitoring tools and appropriate simulation procedures are indispensable. They have to provide necessary information for risk evaluation, successful risk management and communication. These are the main tasks the trans-national INTERREG IIIB Cadses Project is dealing with. The report gives an insight into the particular activities and will present some results of MONITOR.

Local protection against mountain hazards – state of the art and future needs

Abstract. During the last decades, settlement activities increased in European mountain regions. Due to the scarceness of areas suitable for development, residential estates were extended into areas endangered by natural hazards such as mass movements. These settlements generally show a considerable vulnerability to tangible assets. Integral risk management strategies to reduce the vulnerability to tangible assets are presented for the assessment of such endangered areas. Conventional mitigation and local structural measures are discussed with respect to the necessary delimitation of endangered areas, the preparedness of people and possible financial prevention. According to different natural hazard processes (flash floods with and without bedload transport, debris flows, land slides, rock falls and avalanches) and various structural elements of buildings, a catalogue of local structural measures is presented with respect to occurring process impacts and protection objectives. Thereby, different local structural measures are classified and recommended according to a possible implementation for newly-erected buildings and for upgrading existing buildings, respectively. Based on these recommendations, future needs for a sustainable and comprehensive reduction of risk in settlement areas endangered by mass movements are outlined. Above all, this includes a prescription of building codes and the re-introduction of an obligatory final inspection of buildings.

Assessment of Regional Variations in Biomass Production Using Satellite Image Analysis between 1992 and 2004

AbstractAs a consequence of the increasing aridity experienced in Hungary in the past decades, any future spatial planning decisions should consider the threat of an arid environment. For identifying sensitive and endangered areas, suitable methods should be developed. These could help those responsible for decision making in providing quick and suitable actions in planning. Through the investigation of vegetation, regional scale variations in the landscape along with the responses of forests to climatic changes can be easily detected. Our primary aim was the evaluation of the natural water supply on the Danube Tisza Interfluve by studying the forests, meadows and pastures of the area in the summers of 1992 and 2004. We investigated with the help of remote sensing the short‐term response of vegetation to the altered environmental conditions. According to the spatial and temporal analyses of vegetation indices (NDVI) based on AVHRR and MODIS images, a considerable decrease in the activity of vegetation can be observed throughout the entire vegetation period. Due to the suspected climatic changes, 33% of the studied vegetation might be endangered.

Systematic Investigation of Deposits in the Boiler of a Semitechnical Rotary Kiln Incinerator—Mineralogical and Chemical Characterization

Mineralogical and chemical characterizations of deposits from the evaporator walls in the boiler of the pilot plant THERESA indicate a correlation of increased corrosion processes with phase transformation in the mineralogical composition. Samples were taken in horizontal and vertical profiles which allow a correlation of the variations in flue gas properties (e.g., temperature, chemical composition) as well as a comparison of the composition in the same boiler zone. The coatings were composed mainly of different sulfates. Phase transformation between calcium- (Ca), sodium- (Na), potassium- (K), and lead- (Pb) sulfates can be observed together with macroscopic corrosion damages at the evaporator walls. These findings should help to give a prognosis of the most endangered areas in the boiler and therefore minimize expenditures for boiler maintenance.

Opinion of the Scientific Panel on Plant Health on the pest risk analysis made by EPPO on Lysichiton americanus Hultén &amp; St. John (American or yellow skunk cabbage)

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Scientific Panel on Plant Heath was asked to deliver a scientific opinion on two pest risk analyses made by the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization (EPPO) on invasive alien plants (American skunk cabbage and floating pennywort). The Panel was in particular asked a) whether these organisms can be considered as harmful for the endangered area of the European Community and thus potentially eligible for addition to the list of harmful organisms in the plant health Directive 2000/29/EC, and b) whether the identified management options are appropriate through an evaluation of their efficacy, feasibility and impact. This document presents the opinion of the Panel on Plant Health on the pest risk analysis made by EPPO on Lysichiton americanus Hulten and St. John. L. americanus is a yellow-flowered herbaceous perennial plant known as American skunk cabbage or yellow skunk cabbage. It can be terrestrial, semi-aquatic and even aquatic. It has been introduced into Europe intentionally as an ornamental garden plant. It is naturalised in several European countries including Ireland, Germany, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and UK. However, invasive behaviour has been reported in parts of Europe, with local species extinction reported in Germany. L. americanus is considered an invasive alien plant by EPPO and is included on the EPPO Action List (pests which EPPO recommend member countries to consider for inclusion in their phytosanitary regulations), with the entire EPPO region considered an endangered area. In delivering this opinion the Panel conducted a detailed review of the EPPO pest risk analysis provided, using the internationally accepted standard for pest risk analysis for quarantine pests ISPM No 11. The available information shows that Lysichiton americanus can be considered an invasive species with potential to cause environmental damage to ecologically vulnerable wetland habitats. However, the factors contributing to invasive behaviour are not well characterised and thus the endangered area cannot be clearly defined. Despite the presence of L. americanus in at least nine European countries, clear evidence of environmental damage has been found only in restricted areas of Germany. A more detailed analysis is required to identify the key factors contributing to invasive behaviour. Although the Panel recognises that invasiveness of a plant in one area can be a signal for its invasiveness elsewhere, it concludes that the information provided in the EPPO document is insufficient to confirm that L. americanus qualifies as a quarantine pest for the EC. The Panel considers that the significant knowledge gaps identified in the pest risk assessment stage of the pest risk analysis preclude a detailed evaluation of management options at this stage. The Panel suggests that further work, including monitoring and surveillance, is needed to address the areas of uncertainty identified in the EPPO document, in order to identify the areas of the European Community at risk and enable management options to be considered. These include: a) the effect of abiotic factors on the establishment, development, reproduction, survival and dispersal of the plant in both the native and introduced range; b) the population dynamics of the plant in areas where it is present but not invasive; c) the volume of trade in L. americanus as an ornamental plant entering and moving within the EC, including further analysis of the pathways through which it can reach natural water bodies; d) the nature and occurrence of areas within the EC where conditions result in invasiveness of the plant, supported by the use of modelling and geographic information system (GIS) tools. the environmental damage caused by the plant in areas where it is invasive.

Chute experiments on slushflow dynamics

Abstract Slushflows are gravity driven mass flows consisting of a mixture of snow and water, which exhibit considerable damage potential for endangered areas. An increase in global temperature and winter rain precipitation could lead to more frequent slushflow events, requiring the need to redesign protective measures. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the flow rheology of small scale slushflows (volumes of 10–15 m 3 ) using the 30 m long and 2.5 m wide snow chute of the Swiss Federal Institute of Snow and Avalanche Research at Weissfluhjoch, Davos, Switzerland. Velocity profiles, dynamic pressure, basal and normal shear stresses and flow height data were recorded in order to test suitable instruments for slushflow measurements. From the obtained data, the order of magnitude of the drag factor for slushflows interacting with obstacles could be estimated. Furthermore, an empirical guess of the effective viscosity of the slush could be extracted from the data. We give an overview of the experimental setup and discuss the experimental problems arising from the specific characteristics of slushflows. First results are presented, which indicate that the drag might be considerably higher than the estimates commonly used for dry flowing avalanches. Compared to dry snow avalanches, comparable (at similar velocities) shear and normal stresses seem to be higher in slushflows. The analysis of shear stress versus normal stress indicates some visco-plastic behavior. The results imply that slushflows have to be considered when choosing a design criteria for avalanche protection measures wherever this kind of flows can occur. The results from the chute experiments are discussed with respect to the development of numerical models of slushflows and a future adaptation of the optical velocity measurement devices to slushflows.