End-use Technologies Research Articles

Deep decarbonization impacts on electric load shapes and peak demand

The existing literature has shown the important role of electrification in deep decarbonization pathways, increasing electricity demand as end uses decarbonize. However, studies have not focused on the effects of electrification on aggregate load shapes and peak demand, which influence power sector investments, operations, and costs. Here we investigate potential impacts of deep decarbonization on regional load shapes and peak electricity demand using a detailed end-use simulation model linked to an electric sector capacity planning model. Scenario results suggest that electrification may contribute to peak load increases and shifts from summer peaks to winter ones, especially in cooler climates due to space heating electrification. We illustrate how net-zero emissions goals can amplify electrification and may entail 120%–165% increases in electric system capacity by 2050 due to a combination of electrification and high renewables deployment. The intensity and frequency of peak demand can be limited by load flexibility (providing incentives for electric end uses to shift away from periods of high demand, e.g. through deferrable electric vehicle charging), alternate end-use technology configurations (deploying higher efficiency end-use equipment to lower electricity consumption during peaks or using dual-fuel systems such as heat pumps paired with gas furnaces), and carbon removal (displacing higher marginal abatement cost electrification while reaching an equivalent emissions cap). This analysis is a first step toward systematically exploring load curves for electrified and decarbonized energy systems, and the results highlight opportunities for future research to better understand load shape impacts and flexibility.

The REDCap Mobile Application: a data collection platform for research in regions or situations with internet scarcity.

ObjectivesTo share our approach for designing, developing, and deploying the Research Electronic Data Capture (REDCap) Mobile Application, details about its dissemination and support through the REDCap Consortium, and a set of lessons learned and guidance recommendations for others developing mobile platforms to support research in regions or situations with internet scarcity.Materials and MethodsWe defined minimum viable product requirements centered around Android and iOS platform availability, data capture specifications and project initiation workflow, study data synchronization, and data security. After launch, we added features based on feedback from end-users and REDCap administrators. We prioritized new features based on expected impact, difficulty, and anticipated long-term cost for sustainability.ResultsWe chose Apache Cordova, a combined iOS and Android development framework, based on targeted end-user technology expectations, available programmer resources, and the need to provide solutions for resource-limited settings. The REDCap Mobile Application was launched in 2015, has been enabled at over 800 REDCap Consortium partner organizations, and has supported diverse scientific studies around the world.DiscussionApache Cordova enabled early software releases for both iOS and Android, but required ongoing optimization efforts to improve software responsiveness. Developing a robust and efficient mobile device synchronization architecture was difficult without direct access to global network infrastructures for testing. Research teams in sub-Saharan Africa helped our development team understand and simulate real-world scenarios of intermittent internet connectivity.ConclusionGuidance recommendations based on designing, developing, deploying, and disseminating the REDCap Mobile Application may help other teams looking to develop clinical research informatics applications.

Regional suitability for energy carriers in Japan considering socioeconomic conditions and environmental performance

The implementation of energy carriers, such as hydrogen, is an option for future sustainable energy systems with decentralized renewable resources. Such an implementation requires holistic system changes from energy production to end-use technologies over multiple sectors; thus, for an effective implementation of the energy carriers, region prioritizing is required. The implementation effects (e.g., reduction in greenhouse gas emission and economic performance) of energy carriers can be affected by regional characteristics, but the regional suitability for energy carrier implementation cannot be judged only by the implementation effects. Regions need to have enough driving force to overcome barriers in the implementation. We propose an approach to analyze the regional suitability of the energy carrier based on three criteria, namely the regional scale, the socioeconomic driving force, and the unit implementation effect. Each of these criteria was subdivided into multiple categories for clarifying the analytical basis of regional suitability. The results of the case study in Japan demonstrated that regions can be differentiated by regional positions based on the three criteria. This analysis would contribute to prioritizing regions from the viewpoint of socioeconomic driving forces as well as implementation effects. The analysis can also be used for region-specific strategic planning according to the differences in socioeconomic driving force indicators. The cluster analysis was useful for understanding the relative positions of regions among all regions, identifying regions that have similar conditions, and tracking changes in the positions with different indicator combinations. This cluster would also be used to share knowledge of energy carrier implementation depending on the socioeconomic and energy-related conditions.

Exploring carbon footprint reduction pathways through urban lifestyle changes: a practical approach applied to Japanese cities

Cities and urban consumers play a central role in the transition to a decarbonized society. Building on existing studies that identify the significant contributions of lifestyle changes, this study proposes a practical methodology for modeling and exploring city-specific carbon footprint reduction pathways through lifestyle changes to decarbonization. It uses an input–output approach with mixed-unit consumption data and the concept of adoption rates, which is applicable to multiple cities with widely available subnational household consumption data. This paper illustrates the use of this methodology by exploring the consumption-based mitigation pathways of 52 Japanese cities with 65 lifestyle change options covering mobility, housing, food, consumer goods, and leisure domains. The results revealed that city-specific impacts of a variety of lifestyle change options can differ by as much as a factor of five among cities, even in the urban context within the same country. Due to this city-level heterogeneity, the priority options of decarbonized lifestyles, such as among shared mobility, low-carbon diets, and longevity of consumer goods, have shifted between cities. The analysis suggests that ambitious urban lifestyle changes can potentially reduce their carbon footprints to meet the 1.5 °C target. However, due to the overlaps of mitigation potentials between multiple lifestyle change options, the necessary levels of adoption and coverage are extensive (i.e. adoption rates of 0.6–0.9). Importantly, adopting lifestyle changes with an efficiency strategy (e.g. the introduction of end-use technologies) or sufficiency strategy (e.g. behavioral changes in consumption amounts and modes) alone is not enough; the only way to succeed is through the combination of both strategies. This paper calls for a target-based exploration and identification of city-specific priorities of lifestyle change options to facilitate consumption-oriented mitigation policies and stakeholder actions to address the climate impacts of urban consumption.

Emergency upscaling of video consultation during the COVID-19 pandemic: Contrasting user experience with data insights from the electronic health record in a large academic hospital

BackgroundVideo consultation (VC) has been scaled up at our academic centre attempting to facilitate and accommodate patient-provider interaction in times of social distancing during the recent and ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. ObjectivesThis study evaluates qualitative outcomes with data insights from the electronic health record, to contrast satisfaction outcomes with the actual use of VC. MethodsHealthcare providers and patients using VC during the COVID-19 pandemic at a large academic centre in the Netherlands were surveyed for user satisfaction and experiences with VC. In addition, quantitative technical assessment was performed using data related to VC from the EHR record. ResultsIn total, 1,027/4,443 patients and 87/166 healthcare providers completed their online questionnaire. Users rated the use of VC during a pandemic with an average score of 8.3/10 and 7.6/10 respectively. Both groups believed the use of VC was a good solution to continue the provision of healthcare during this pandemic. The use of VC increased from 92 in March 2020 to 837 in April 2020. ConclusionThis study strongly signals that VC is an important modality in futureproofing outpatient care during and beyond pandemic times. Further development in end-user technology is needed for EHR integrated VC solutions. Guidelines needs to be developed advising both patients and healthcare providers. Such guidelines should not solely focus on technical implementation and troubleshooting, but must also consider important aspects such as digital health literacy, patient and provider authentication, privacy and ethics.

Demand-side decarbonization and electrification: EMF 35 JMIP study

Japan’s long-term strategy submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change emphasizes the importance of improving the electrification rates to reducing GHG emissions. Using the five models participating in Energy Modeling Forum 35 Japan Model Intercomparison project (JMIP), we focused on the demand-side decarbonization and analyzed the final energy composition required to achieve 80% reductions in GHGs by 2050 in Japan. The model results show that the electricity share in final energy use (electrification rate) needs to reach 37–66% in 2050 (26% in 2010) to achieve the emissions reduction of 80%. The electrification rate increases mainly due to switching from fossil fuel end-use technologies (i.e. oil water heater, oil stove and combustion-engine vehicles) to electricity end-use technologies (i.e. heat pump water heater and electric vehicles). The electricity consumption in 2050 other than AIM/Hub ranged between 840 and 1260 TWh (AIM/Hub: 1950TWh), which is comparable to the level seen in the last 10 years (950–1035 TWh). The pace at which electrification rate must be increased is a challenge. The model results suggest to increase the electrification pace to 0.46–1.58%/yr from 2030 to 2050. Neither the past electrification pace (0.30%/year from 1990 to 2010) nor the outlook of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (0.15%/year from 2010 to 2030) is enough to reach the suggested electrification rates in 2050. Therefore, more concrete measures to accelerate dissemination of electricity end-use technologies across all sectors need to be established.

Industrial decarbonization under Japan\u2019s national mitigation scenarios: a multi-model analysis

Energy-intensive industries are difficult to decarbonize. They present a major challenge to the emerging countries that are currently in the midst of rapid industrialization and urbanization. This is also applicable to Japan, a developed economy, which retains a large presence in heavy industries compared to other developed economies. In this paper, the results obtained from four energy-economic and integrated assessment models were utilized to explore climate mitigation scenarios of Japan’s industries by 2050. The results reveal that: (i) Japan’s share of emissions from industries may increase by 2050, highlighting the difficulties in achieving industrial decarbonization under the prevailing industrial policies; (ii) the emission reduction in steelmaking will play a key role, which can be achieved by the implementation of carbon capture and expansion of hydrogen technologies after 2040; (iii) even under mitigation scenarios, electrification and the use of biomass use in Japan’s industries will continue to be limited in 2050, suggesting a low possibility of large-scale fuel switching or end-use decarbonization. After stocktaking of the current industry-sector modeling in integrated assessment models, we found that such limited uptake of cleaner fuels in the results may be related to the limited interests of both participating models and industry stakeholders in Japan, specifically the interests on the technologies that are still at the early stage of development but with high reduction potential. It is crucial to upgrade research and development activities to enable future industry-sector mitigation as well as to improve modeling capabilities of energy end-use technologies in integrated assessment models.

Generating low-voltage grid proxies in order to estimate grid capacity for residential end-use technologies: The case of residential solar PV

Due to data restrictions and power system complexity issues, it is difficult to estimate grid capacity for solar PV on regional or national scales. We here present a novel method for estimating low-voltage grid capacity for residential solar PV using publicly available data. High-resolution GIS data on demographics and dwelling dynamics is used to generate theoretical low-voltage grids. Simplified power system calculations are performed on the generated low-voltage grids to estimate residential solar PV capacity with a high temporal resolution. The method utilizes previous developments in reference network modelling and solar PV hosting capacity assessments. The method is demonstrated using datasets from Sweden, UK and Germany. Even though the method is designed to estimate residential solar PV grid capacity, the first block of the method can be utilized to estimate grid capacity or impacts from other residential end-use technologies, such as electric heating or electric vehicle charging.This method presents:•A method for estimating peak demand based on population density and dwelling type.•Generation of low-voltage grids based on peak demand.•Sizing of transformers and cables based on national low-voltage regulations and standards.

High electrification futures: Impacts to the U.S. bulk power system

Electrification of end-use technologies could have important implications for bulk power sector planning, operations, and impacts. By combining previously-defined electrification scenarios with capacity expansion modeling, we evaluate the potential challenges and opportunities associated with electrification. Our scenario analysis reveals that electrification reduces energy consumption and air emissions from across the energy sector, and its impacts on energy system costs are modest due, in part, to the abundance of low-cost resources in the United States.

Empirical Mode Decomposition Applied to Proton Exchange Membrane Electrolyzer for Non-Intrusive Diagnosis

The water electrolysis based on Polymeric Electrolyte Membrane technology (E-PEM) is an interesting solution for efficient carbon-free hydrogen production. By the end of the 21st century, the contribution of hydrogen will continue to achieve significant rate in the energy mix. As there have been advances of efficient end-use technologies, hydrogen could even become the main energy carrier [1]. Regarding diagnosis purposes, Empirical Model Decomposition (EMD) method has proven to be a versatile and efficient tool to analyze non-stationary signals and extract features from them [2].As a starting point of its decomposition, oscillations are considered, at a local level, as the sum of a specified number of high and low frequency contributions called Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs). IMFs represent the natural oscillatory mode embedded in the signal and work as the basis functions, which makes EMD a self-adaptive method. fig.1 shows the decomposition of the E-PEM current into a finite set of intrinsic mode functions.This study presents a non-intrusive tool designed to fulfill on-line diagnosis requirements. Indeed, the proposed method does not require any excitation signal or stabilization period as Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy-based approaches [3]. Therefore, the electrolyzer remains continuously available, even while the diagnosis is being performed. Besides, it only requires measurement of current and has a low computational costs, which are significant economic and technical advantages. Here, EMD has been used to study the anode flow rate dynamics. Several experiments have been conducted and experimental results have demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed diagnosis tool and its advantages compared to other methods. Acknowledgements This project has received funding from the Reunion Island Region and the European Commission – ERDF References Barbir, “PEM electrolysis for production of hydrogen from renewable energy sources,” Solar Energy, vol. 78, no. 5, pp. 661–669, May 2005, doi: 10.1016/j.solener.2004.09.003. Damour, M. Benne, B. Grondin-Perez, M. Bessafi, D. Hissel, and J.-P. Chabriat, “Polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell fault diagnosis based on empirical mode decomposition,” Journal of Power Sources, vol. 299, pp. 596–603, Dec. 2015, doi: 10.1016/j.jpowsour.2015.09.041. C. Garcia-Navarro, M. Schulze, and K. A. Friedrich, “Measuring and modeling mass transport losses in proton exchange membrane water electrolyzers using electrochemical impedance spectroscopy,” Journal of Power Sources, vol. 431, pp. 189–204, Aug. 2019, doi: 10.1016/j.jpowsour.2019.05.027. Figure 1: Intrinsic mode functions decomposition for operating conditions of 1.6 V and 0.5 ml.min-1 Figure 1

Consumers or users? The impact of user learning about smart hybrid heat pumps on policy trajectories for heat decarbonisation

Decarbonisation policies often emphasise the uptake of new end-use technologies, seeing people as consumers of technologies with predictable impacts. In the UK, smart hybrid heat pumps (SHHP) have attracted policy interest as a technology potentially offering multiple benefits for home heat decarbonisation. This paper draws on domestication theory, a perspective that frames people as users who actively learn about technologies, to analyse interviews and observations with installers and users involved in the first UK trial of SHHP. This perspective reveals that users’ learning about SHHPs may erode part of the energy savings they offer and have implications for future technology uptake, including the trajectories of heat decarbonisation currently envisaged by policy makers. However, it also reveals opportunities for policy making to influence user learning, including paying closer attention to material elements such as radiator controls and space to air laundry alongside improved information provision. This could be supported by engaging with users as their learning emerges over time. Overall, the paper highlights the policy relevance of technology use as well as uptake and adds to calls for energy policy to think beyond information provision and economic incentives to engage with households, implying a less deterministic approach to policy making.

A rolling horizon approach for real-time trading and portfolio optimization of end-user flexibilities

Flexible energy consumption patterns represent a significant potential for end-users to reduce their energy costs due to the increasing price volatility in the electricity spot markets. However, a simple and exhaustive description of flexibilities is needed to efficiently coordinate multiple flexible components. In this paper, we propose a simple and complete method to describe the end-user flexibility potential. The proposed method describes flexibilities of the end-user technologies as a combination of inflexible loads and virtual batteries with variable capacities. This technique allows to describe the flexible components (such as heat pumps and boilers) with the exclusive use of linear relationships which can be implemented in mixed integer optimization problems. Furthermore, a rolling horizon optimization framework is used to define the operating strategy of the end-user components and the trades at the Day-Ahead and the Intraday spot markets. Moreover, we apply our proposed methods to a real-life use case in Austria with measured data to prove their effectiveness, validity and reliability. The results show that trading energy in the Day-Ahead and the Intraday spot markets can lead the end-user to a reduction of the energy procurement costs of 8%, but at the same time increases its energy consumption by 3.21%.

The desirability of transitions in demand: Incorporating behavioural and societal transformations into energy modelling

Quantitative systems modelling in support of climate policy has tended to focus more on the supply side in assessing interactions among technology, economy, environment, policy and society. By contrast, the demand side is usually underrepresented, often emphasising technological options for energy efficiency improvements. In this perspective, we argue that scientific support to climate action is not only about exploring capacity of “what”, in terms of policy and outcome, but also about assessing feasibility and desirability, in terms of “when”, “where” and especially for “whom”. Without the necessary behavioural and societal transformations, the world faces an inadequate response to the climate crisis challenge. This could result from poor uptake of low-carbon technologies, continued high-carbon intensive lifestyles, or economy-wide rebound effects. For this reason, we propose a framing for a holistic and transdisciplinary perspective on the role of human choices and behaviours in influencing the low-carbon transition, starting from the desires of individuals and communities, and analysing how these interact with the energy and economic landscape, leading to systemic change at the macro-level. In making a case for a political ecology agenda, we expand our scope, from comprehending the role of societal acceptance and uptake of end-use technologies, to co-developing knowledge with citizens from non-mainstream and marginalised communities, and to defining the modelling requirements to assess the decarbonisation potential of shifting lifestyle patterns in climate change and action.

The role of advanced end-use technologies in long-term climate change mitigation: the interlinkage between primary bioenergy and energy end-use

The role of advanced end-use technologies has been investigated in multiple series of scenarios using an integrated assessment model BET-GLUE, which comprises an energy-economic module (BET) and a bioenergy-land-use module (GLUE). The scenarios consider different technology assumptions on the availability of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and end-use efficiencies featuring electrification under a wide range of carbon price trajectories, which start at 1–690 USD/tCO2 in 2030, increase at 4.5%/year, and level off in 2100. This scenario design allows close examination of energy, economic, and environmental implications of different levels of policy stringency and carbon budgets. While improving end-use efficiencies consistently decrease policy costs for a wide range of carbon budgets, the value of BECCS availability in terms of cost reduction is crucial only in a limited range toward lower budgets. Constraints on BECCS, including those indirectly imposed by the limited bioenergy supply, also tend to narrow the lower range of attainable budget levels, indicating technological and economic challenges, although they may have an impact on reducing the total budget including land-use emissions. Overall, the advanced end-use efficiency has a significant effect on the required level of policy stringency for a given climate goal, so that it can compensate for the biomass constraints.

How to Prioritize Energy Efficiency Intervention in Municipal Public Buildings to Decrease CO2 Emissions? A Case Study from Italy.

The European Union 2050 climate neutrality goal and the climate crisis require coordinated efforts to reduce energy consumption in all sectors, and mainly in buildings greatly affected by the increasing temperature, with relevant CO2 emissions due to inefficient end-use technologies. Moreover, the old building stock of most countries requires suited policies to support renovation programs aimed at improving energy performances and optimize energy uses. A toolbox was developed in the framework of the PrioritEE project to provide policy makers and technicians with a wide set of tools to support energy efficiency in Municipal Public Buildings. The toolbox, available for free, was tested in the partners’ communities, proving its effectiveness. The paper illustrates its application to the Potenza Municipality case study in which the online calculator DSTool (the core instrument of the toolbox) was utilized to select and prioritize the energy efficiency interventions in public buildings implementable in a three-year action plan in terms of costs, energy savings, CO2 emissions’ reduction and return on investments. The results highlight that improvements in the building envelopes (walls and roofs), heating and lighting and photovoltaic systems allow reducing CO2 emission approximately 644 t/year and saving about 2050 MWh/year with a total three-year investment of 1,728,823 EUR.

Spatially-resolved urban energy systems model to study decarbonisation pathways for energy services in cities

This work presents the COMET (Cities Optimisation Model for Energy Technologies) model, a spatially-resolved urban energy systems model that takes into account energy service demands for heating, cooling, electricity, and transport, and finds cost-effective pathways for supplying these demands under carbon constraints, trading-off energy supply, network infrastructure, and end-use technologies. Spatially-resolved energy service demands were obtained for the city of Sao Paulo, and six scenarios were modelled. Results show that district cooling is cost-effective in the highest linear cooling density zones, with full penetration in zones with over 1100 kWh/m by 2050. This threshold diminishes with tighter carbon constraints. Heating is electrified in all scenarios, with electric boilers and air-source heat pumps being the main supply technologies for the domestic and commercial sectors respectively by 2050. In the most carbon constrained scenario with a medium decarbonised electricity grid, ground source heat pumps and hydrogen boilers appear as transition technologies between 2030 and 2045 for the commercial and domestic sectors respectively, reaching 95% and 40% of each sector’s heat installed capacity in 2030. In the transport sector, ethanol cars replace gasoline, diesel, and compressed natural gas cars; compressed natural gas buses replace diesel and electric buses; and lorries continue using diesel. In carbon constrained scenarios, higher penetrations of electric cars and buses are obtained, while no change is observed for lorries. Finally, the most expensive scenario was only 6% more expensive than the reference scenario, meaning that achieving decarbonisation targets is not much costlier when comparing scenarios from a system-wide perspective.

Decarbonization pathways and energy investment needs for developing Asia in line with ‘well below’ 2°C

ABSTRACTExploring potential future pathways for developing Asia’s energy consumption, CO2 emissions and infrastructure investment needs is essential to understanding how the countries of this rapidly growing region may contribute to the global climate targets set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement. To this end, this study employs the state-of-the-art global integrated assessment model MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM to investigate mid-century decarbonization strategies for developing Asia to 2050. Our results indicate that a radical change in the energy portfolio is required to reach the target of ‘well below’ 2°C. Specifically, our scenarios point to a rapid reduction of fossil fuel utilization, enhancement of low-carbon energy supply, and boosting of energy efficiency efforts. Such a transformation leads to a deep cut in CO2 emissions by 78% and 93% by 2050 in scenarios consistent with the 2°C and 1.5°C targets, respectively. Electricity generation and final energy consumption become dominated by low-carbon energy by 2050 in these scenarios. In terms of investment needs beyond a baseline scenario, the 2°C and 1.5°C pathways imply that the scale of low-carbon investment may need to double and triple, respectively. These increases would be partially offset by disinvestment in coal, oil and natural gas extraction and conversion infrastructure. Decarbonizing the energy system also impacts the capital needed for making progress on other sustainable development goals (SDGs), such as air pollution, clean water and food security.Key policy insightsGovernments will need to employ a variety of policy mechanisms, including mandates and subsidies for renewables and electric vehicles, efficiency standards for end-use technologies, and bans on free-emitting fossil fuel plants, among others.Relative to the baseline scenario for developing Asia, the scale of investment into low-carbon energy to 2050 may need to double for a 2°C scenario, and to triple for 1.5°C. Policy instruments such as green finance are essential for this region to mobilize a broadened channel of investment, particularly from the private sector.Low-carbon investment would significantly reduce the capital investment needed to achieve the SDG target for air quality, but increase the requirements for meeting targets on clean water and food security, though only to a small extent.

An optimization model for the long-term energy planning based on useful energy, economic and environmental pollution reduction in residential sector: A case of Iran

Energy developments plays a crucial role in the political power, economic growth, social development and environmental degradation of developing countries. Energy consumption in residential sector is an essential issue for providing a large variety of services that are necessary for social life tasks such as heating, cooling, and lighting. Therefore, there is a need for depiction of energy outlook and selection of appropriate strategies as the main pillars of economic and political stability in each society. The main objective of this research is to design and apply a methodology that helps decision makers for simulation, optimization and analysis of the residential sector energy system. The proposed model was developed to forecast useful energy services in this sector and a bottom-up optimization model under various constraints has been suggested. In this model, several end-use technologies are embedded in an aggregated algorithm based upon the Reference Energy System (RES) concept as the main conceptualized model of the energy supply chain for a long-run horizon of 35 years (2015–2050). Model results indicate, the energy saving potential following on implementation of Energy Conservation projects has been estimated 25% and 31% for the target years of 2040 and 2050 in the case study region. In addition, Environmental Pollution (EP) reduction potential is projected to be about 2037 million tons in the end year. This reduction could help moving toward sustainable development and fulfilling the Paris agreement obligations.

Electrification of Industry: Potential, Challenges and Outlook

Industry is one of the most difficult sectors to decarbonize. With the rapidly falling cost of solar PV, wind power, and battery storage, industry electrification coupled with renewable electricity supply has the potential to be a key pathway to achieve industry decarbonization. This paper summarizes the latest research on the possibility of electrification of the industry sector. The transition to industry electrification would entail major changes in the energy system: large scale increases in renewable electricity or nuclear power supplies, the expansion of electricity transmission and distribution networks, completely different end-use technologies for process heating, and new infrastructure for distributing and dispensing hydrogen. Thus, aggressive and sustained supportive policies and much wider research, development, demonstration, and deployment activities are required to meet net zero carbon emissions goals in the industrial sector. Existing economically competitive electrified industrial processes (such as electric arc furnaces for secondary steelmaking from scrap steel), coupled with zero-carbon electricity sources can sharply reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) compared to manufacturing processes that rely on fossil fuels. Fuel switching in industry from fossil fuel–based process heating to electrified heat can offer many product and productivity benefits, but operating costs in general are much higher than fossil fuel-based heating. Either much lower costs of electricity and energy storage are required and/or new, cost-competitive electric-technology applications are needed to enable further electrification of industry. Indirect electrification i.e., hydrogen production via water electrolysis is another complimentary technology reliant on electricity. Hydrogen can be used as an energy carrier, industrial feedstock for products and fuels, or for long-duration energy storage, and thus can also play a key role in industry decarbonization when the hydrogen is produced from zero-carbon electricity and/or with carbon capture and storage. As with direct electrification, cost is the key barrier for the deployment of hydrogen resources.

Path dependency in provision of domestic heating

In the United Kingdom, natural gas dominates the provision of heating in buildings. In Sweden, oil heating has been largely replaced by district heating and heat pumps. The origins and outcomes of path dependence and lock-in in heat-system evolution can be country specific. Here, we compare case studies of heat transitions in the United Kingdom and Sweden, addressing the question: can path dependency help to understand why these countries have followed different paths in terms of change to their heating infrastructure? In both countries, the development of heating infrastructures can be understood as path-dependent processes, entailing increasing returns to adoption as fuel sources, infrastructures and end-use technologies coevolve such that the overall performance of the system increases. The challenge for policymakers seeking to achieve carbon targets is to consider how to create the conditions to encourage increasing returns to adoption of low-carbon heating solutions. Domestic heating systems vary widely in their configurations across different countries. Here, Gross and Hanna use case studies of Sweden and the United Kingdom to explore the central roles of policies and path dependence in shaping the technologies and infrastructures providing domestic space heating.