End Point Rate Research Articles

Shoreline Change and Coastal Erosion: An Analysis of Long and Short-Term Alterations and Mitigation Strategies on the Coast of Icapuí, Northeast Brazil

Sandy beaches play a crucial role as natural barriers against climate change and hold significant socioeconomic value. In the municipality of Icapuí, on the eastern coast of Ceará, erosion has affected some of its beaches since the 2000s, impacting structures near the Shoreline (SL), such as schools, inns, and residences. This article analyzed the SL dynamics on the beaches of Barreiras de Baixo, Barreiras de Cima, and Barrinha, located in the mentioned municipality, using two scales of analysis: in the short term, with in situ surveys using geodetic receivers between 2015 and 2023, and in the long term, with orbital images from 2002 to 2024. For statistical analysis, the End Point Rate (EPR) and Linear Regression Rate (LRR) methods were applied in ArcGIS software using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) version 5.1 extension. The short-term analysis revealed an average EPR of 0.0 m/year, with a maximum progradation of 7.1 m/year and maximum erosion of 6.4 m/year. The LRR showed an average of -0.2 m/year, with a maximum progradation of 7 m/year and maximum erosion of 6.7 m/year. The long-term analysis showed an average EPR of -1.1 m/year, with a maximum progradation of 0.5 m/year and a minimum erosion of 3.9 m/year, while the LRR indicated an average of -0.7 m/year, with maximum erosion of 3.6 m/year and maximum progradation of 1.6 m/year. These results indicate a more pronounced retreat of the SL over time. The analysis also revealed that containment structures, such as Rip-rap, have replaced wooden stakes and sandbags previously used by local communities, stabilizing 63.2% of the SL. The forecasts obtained through this study for the years 2034 and 2044 indicate shoreline retreat in areas still without protection, highlighting the urgent need for effective participatory planning. It is essential to align this planning with the Municipal Climate Change Adaptation Plan and the Integrated Coastal Management Plan (ICMP). Maintaining protection structures and conducting continuous monitoring is crucial to adapting coastal management strategies, protecting vulnerable communities and ecosystems.

Determination of Shoreline Variability for Adaptation of Maritime Built Heritage to Climate Change: A Case of Southern Kenya Coast

ABSTRACT Erosion, shoreline retreat and accelerated beach loss at maritime heritage sites in Southern Kenya, is on the rise. Consequences ranging from gradual decay, collapse to outright catastrophic loss of pillars, mosques, tombs, wells and historic ruins are indicative of absent coastal management and climate adaptation plans. Unfortunately, the susceptibility of this heritage to suffer damage remains high due to its location, age, material and methods of construction. The archival research method, was selected to establish shoreline movement based on multi-temporal Landsat images from 1994–2023. Shoreline positions of the study area were analysed using geo-spatial statistical techniques executed in the GIS environment. These include Net Shoreline Movement, End Point Rate and Linear Regression Rate. Results of total shoreline change between 1994 and 2023 were −96.47 m. A mean erosion rate of −3.57 m/year with a maximum of −6.18 m/year reveals that erosion trends are significant in the cultural landscape. Short-term priorities include: physical stabilisations and relocation of built heritage from vulnerable zones. Long-term priorities include: restoration of mangroves, preservation of salt marshes and protection of seagrass beds. This paper contributes to the promotion of coping capacities and priorities for adapting maritime heritage to climate change.

Statistical Analysis of Short-Term Shoreline Change Behavior Along The Southern Cilacap Coasts of Indonesia

There is a threat of extreme waves and a moderate risk level of coastal erosion in Bunton Village. Based on the preliminary assessment, there is huge erosion of the shoreline and visible changes in the shoreline temporally. However, there is no statistical data on short-term shoreline change behavior in this area. Hence, this research aims to analyze statistically the short-term shoreline change behavior to understand the conditions and phenomena that occur on the coast of Bunton Village. Landsat images spanning the years 2002 to 2022, with recording intervals of 5 years each, were used to identify the shoreline data, which was later analyzed using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS). Statistical analyses of short-term shoreline change behavior were obtained using the End Point Rate (EPR) and Net Shoreline Movement (NSM) approaches. Over a 20-year period, the Bunton coastal area experiences dynamic changes that are primarily due to erosion, with an average distance change of -255.5 meters and an average speed of -14.6 meters per year (very high erosion). The existence of the electric steam power plant (ESPP) in Adipala, which built a breakwater in 2012, has been proven to increase the erosion process. Shoreline change in this area can affect various landuses and tourism activities as well as trigger environmental problems in the Bunton coastal area.

Statistical Analysis of Short-Term Shoreline Change Behavior Along The Southern Cilacap Coasts of Indonesia

There is a threat of extreme waves and a moderate risk level of coastal erosion in Bunton Village. Based on the preliminary assessment, there is huge erosion of the shoreline and visible changes in the shoreline temporally. However, there is no statistical data on short-term shoreline change behavior in this area. Hence, this research aims to analyze statistically the short-term shoreline change behavior to understand the conditions and phenomena that occur on the coast of Bunton Village. Landsat images spanning the years 2002 to 2022, with recording intervals of 5 years each, were used to identify the shoreline data, which was later analyzed using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS). Statistical analyses of short-term shoreline change behavior were obtained using the End Point Rate (EPR) and Net Shoreline Movement (NSM) approaches. Over a 20-year period, the Bunton coastal area experiences dynamic changes that are primarily due to erosion, with an average distance change of -255.5 meters and an average speed of -14.6 meters per year (very high erosion). The existence of the electric steam power plant (ESPP) in Adipala, which built a breakwater in 2012, has been proven to increase the erosion process. Shoreline change in this area can affect various landuses and tourism activities as well as trigger environmental problems in the Bunton coastal area.

Non-thermal shearing effect on gluten conformation for plant-based anisotropic structures

Wheat gluten manipulation to obtain fibrillar structures is a promising approach for elaborating meat analogs on large or small scales. Alternatively to extrusion, mild methods can save energy and avoid sensory attributes/protein degradation. This study aimed to evaluate low-temperature shearing to create gluten-based fibers, assessing the material structure as a function of processing intensity. The effect of the non-thermal shearing length (up to 10 min) and added mechanical energy (up to 565.5 J/g) applied on a highly hydrated wheat gluten-based matrix was investigated in terms of density, exudation, secondary protein structure (FTIR), protein network attributes (confocal laser scanning microscopy), elongation attributes, morphology (SEM), and anisotropicity of cooked matrices. The progression of the shearing process was associated with the development of β-sheet secondary structures (26 % to 50 % predominancy), higher elongation attributes, raw matrix density, and anisotropicity of cooked matrices. Higher protein vessel length and width were associated with the formation and stacking of β-sheets. Exudation, cooked matrix density, and endpoint rate were associated with higher α-helices content (lowered from 39 % to 11 % of predominancy) and lower shearing-added energies. A principal component analysis of the entire dataset confirmed these observations, and the morphology revealed the evolution of the matrix organization during the shearing process. These results underscore the potential of mild-temperature shearing of a highly hydrated gluten-enriched matrix to alter the protein conformation, opening possibilities for controlling fiber structure development, valid for new foods such as meat analogs.

Shoreline Change Analysis in New Washington, Aklan using Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS)

Abstract. Shoreline changes are a critical indicator of coastal vulnerability, impacted by natural processes and human-induced factors such as climate change. This study investigates shoreline changes in New Washington, Aklan, Philippines, focusing on erosion and accretion patterns since 1985. With the use of satellite imagery, coupled with Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques, this study examines the spatio-temporal variability in erosion and accretion patterns. Through the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS), a quantitative analysis of shoreline change rates was conducted. Using four (4) DSAS change metrics such as Endpoint rate (EPR), Linear Regression Rate (LRR), Shoreline Change Envelope (SCE), and Net Movement Shoreline (NMS), it was identified that the shoreline change in Bakhawan Park area is due to its location being at the mouth of Aklan River. Most of New Washington’s shoreline experiences erosion with 0-1.46 m/yr from LRR, eroding at most 40m of sediments in thirty years; evident along areas of Brgy. Tambac and Poblacion. The largest shoreline deviation can be observed in the areas located near the mouth of Batan Bay with 153 meters since 1985.

Dynamics of Shoreline Changes Along the Coast of Subarnarekha and Budhabalanga River Estuary, North Eastern Coast of India Using DSAS Technique: A Geospatial Technology Approach

ABSTRACTThe coastal regions represent one of the most significant environmental and economic resources, offering critical ecosystems that support biodiversity. Shoreline change analysis offers critical insights into coastal dynamics, providing trends in erosion and accretion, enabling effective coastal management and hazard mitigation. In the current study, shoreline change is assessed utilizing the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) model for Subarnarekha and Budhabalanga river estuaries in Baleswar district, Odisha, India. The shoreline was extracted using multitemporal satellite images like Landsat‐5 and Landsat‐7 for the years 1991, 2000, and 2011. Similarly Sentinel‐2 and Landsat‐8 satellite imagery were used for the year 2022. The satellite data from 1991 to 2022 were processed using Envi, ArcGIS softwares and the shoreline is extracted for each year using band ratioing methods to demarcate shoreline. In the current research, the net accretion and erosion along the coast were analyzed using the GIS (geographic information systems) technique and the DSAS model. The four important statistical parameters of the DSAS model utilized in the study area are end point rate (EPR), net shoreline movement (NSM), linear regression rate (LRR), and least median of squares (LMS). The shoreline change analysis for the coast of Subarnarekha and Budhabalanga river estuary area from 1991 to 2022 reveals that 44% of the coast is under accretion, 7% is under stable coast, and 23% is under erosion. According to the findings, the coastal area of the recent study is both progressive and regressive in nature. For the study area, the average rates of shoreline accretion and erosion are 1.05 m and 0.45 m per year, respectively. The study gives information on erosion and accretion near the Subarnarekha and Budhabalanga river estuaries, which will aid in the development of an adaptive shoreline management strategy and coastal vulnerability assessment.

One-year clinical outcome of aspirin-free prasugrel monotherapy following stent implantation in patients with chronic coronary syndrome: insight from ASET-JAPAN study

Abstract Background Single antiplatelet therapy with a potent P2Y12 inhibitor without aspirin after coronary stent implantation may provide an adequate balance between ischemic and bleeding risks in selected patients. The 3-month follow-up of the Acetyl-Salicylic Elimination Trial (ASET)-Japan pilot study demonstrated the feasibility and safety of Prasugrel monotherapy without aspirin after successful percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in selected patients with chronic coronary syndrome (CCS). Purpose The current study aimed to evaluate the 1-year clinical outcome in the ASET-Japan. Methods The ASET-Japan pilot study was designed to demonstrate the feasibility and safety of the approved dose of prasugrel monotherapy in Japan without aspirin after optimal PCI with a platinum-chromium everolimus-eluting stent in CCS population. After successful procedure, all patients were treated with a locally approved maintenance dose of 3.75 mg/day of Prasugrel monotherapy up to 3-month. After 3-month, the choice of antiplatelet therapy was left to the discretion of the investigators. Patients were followed up to 1 year. The target lesion-related endpoint was a composite of cardiac death, spontaneous target-vessel myocardial infarction (MI) >48 h after the index PCI or clinical-driven target lesion revascularisation. Patient-Oriented Composite Endpoint (POCE) was defined as a composite of all cause mortality, any stroke, any MI and any revascularisation. Spontaneous MI was defined according to Forth universal definition. The event rate was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. The event was adjudicated by an independent clinical event committee. Results A total of 208 patients were enrolled in the study. The average anatomical SYNTAX score was 7.96 (±4.6). After procedure, prasugrel monotherapy was immediately initiated. After 3-month, Prasugrel monotherapy was continued in 88.6% up to 1-year. Aspirin monotherapy was prescribed to 10 patients (5.0%), while 6 patients (3.0%) were on DAPT at 1-year. All-cause mortality rate was 1.49%, with no occurrence of cardiovascular death. Revascularisation occurred in 4.0% (n=8) with no occurrence of TLR, while one patient (0.5%) underwent a clinical driven target vessel revascularisation. In summary, 7 out of 8 revascularisations were non-target vessel revascularisation (6 clinically-driven non-TVR). Spontaneous non TV-MI occured in 0.5% (n=1) of patients. There was no definite/probable stent thrombosis up to 1 year. The target lesion related endpoint rate at 1-year was 0%, whereas 1-year POCE rate was 7.0% (n=14). Conclusion Discontinuation of Aspirin and Prasugrel monotherapy at a low maintenance dose of 3.75 mg/day following an angiographically successful stent deployment was feasible and safe in selected patients with CCS and low SYNTAX score. This safety profile is confirmed at 1 year while the investigators, in their large majority and at their own discretion, had maintained the prasugrel treatment.

Monitoring Coastal Evolution and Geomorphological Processes Using Time-Series Remote Sensing and Geospatial Analysis: Application Between Cape Serrat and Kef Abbed, Northern Tunisia

The monitoring of coastal evolution (coastline and associated geomorphological features) caused by episodic and persistent processes associated with climatic and anthropic activities is required for coastal management decisions. The availability of open access, remotely sensed data with increasing spatial, temporal, and spectral resolutions, is promising in this context. The coastline of Northern Tunisia is currently showing geomorphic process, such as increasing erosion associated with lateral sedimentation. This study aims to investigate the potential of time-series optical data, namely Landsat (from 1985–2019) and Google Earth® satellite imagery (from 2007 to 2023), to analyze shoreline changes and morphosedimentary and geomorphological processes between Cape Serrat and Kef Abbed, Northern Tunisia. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) was used to quantify the multitemporal rates of shoreline using two metrics: the net shoreline movement (NSM) and the end-point rate (EPR). Erosion was observed around the tombolo and near river mouths, exacerbated by the presence of surrounding dams, where the NSM is up to −8.31 m/year. Despite a total NSM of −15 m, seasonal dynamics revealed a maximum erosion in winter (71% negative NSM) and accretion in spring (57% positive NSM). The effects of currents, winds, and dams on dune dynamics were studied using historical images of Google Earth®. In the period from 1994 to 2023, the area is marked by dune face retreat and removal in more than 40% of the site, showing the increasing erosion. At finer spatial resolution and according to the synergy of field observations and photointerpretation, four key geomorphic processes shaping the coastline were identified: wave/tide action, wind transport, pedogenesis, and deposition. Given the frequent changes in coastal areas, this method facilitates the maintenance and updating of coastline databases, which are essential for analyzing the impacts of the sea level rise in the southern Mediterranean region. Furthermore, the developed approach could be implemented with a range of forecast scenarios to simulate the impacts of a higher future sea-level enhanced climate change.

Neoadjuvant gemcitabine-cisplatin plus tislelizumab in persons with resectable muscle-invasive bladder cancer: a multicenter, single-arm, phase 2 trial.

Programmed death 1 blockade (tislelizumab) has been approved for metastatic urothelial carcinoma but not as part of neoadjuvant therapy for muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC). In this multicenter single-arm trial (ChiCTR2000037670), 65 participants with cT2-4aN0M0 MIBC received neoadjuvant gemcitabine-cisplatin plus tislelizumab; 57 of them underwent radical cystectomy (RC). The primary endpoint of pathologic complete response (pCR) rate was 50.9% (29/57, 95% confidence interval (CI) 37.3-64.4%) and the pathologic downstaging (secondary endpoint) rate was 75.4% (43/57, 95% CI 62.2-85.9%) in participants undergoing RC. Genomic and transcriptomic analyses revealed three MIBC molecular subtypes (S): S1 (immune-desert) with activated cell-cycle pathway, S2 (immune-excluded) with activated transforming growth factor-β pathway and S3 (immune-inflamed) with upregulated interferon-α and interferon-γ response. Post hoc analysis showed pCR rates of 16% (3/19, S1), 77% (10/13, S2) and 80% (12/15, S3) (P = 0.006). In conclusion, neoadjuvant gemcitabine-cisplatin plus tislelizumab for MIBC was compatible with an enhanced pCR rate.

Temporal Shoreline Changes From 1984 to 2022 Along Beymelek Beach and Beymelek Lagoon, Antalya, Türkiye

Coastal zones are important transition zones between land and sea, and the shoreline is subject to dynamic change on both spatial and temporal scales. Accurate measurement and modelling of the shoreline is therefore essential for coastal sustainability and coastal zone management. In this study, the shoreline change of Beymelek Beach and Beymelek Lagoon was analyzed over both short and long periods by using End Point Rate (EPR), Net Shoreline Movement (NSM) and Linear Regression Rate (LRR) statistics from the Digital Shoreline Analyses System (DSAS) tool. The long-term shoreline statistics of the Beymelek Beach indicates that the maximum shoreline accretion was 128.4 m for NSM and 4.3 m/yr for EPR, while the maximum shoreline erosion was -62.6 m for NSM, and -1.8 m/yr for LRR in 1984 and 2022. The maximum shoreline erosion rate of Beymelek Lagoon was -148.5 m for NSM and the maximum shoreline accretion was 5.3 m for NSM between 1984 and 2022. As a result, Beymelek Beach and Beymelek Lagoon have experienced significant shoreline changes over both short and long time periods. Therefore, determining the shoreline change in the study area is crucial for making efficient decisions about the coastal zone and contributing to its sustainability.

Delineation of Shoreline and Associated Land Use/Land Cover Changes along the Coast of Chattogram, Bangladesh Based on Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques

This study aimed at delineating the shoreline by using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS 5.0) tool and detected the changes of land use/land cover (LULC) by Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. The shoreline is divided into two zones, whereas Zone I covered 87.12[Formula: see text]km and Zone II possessed 168.05[Formula: see text]km. According to End Point Rate (EPR), the mean shoreline change rate of Zone I is 3.55[Formula: see text]m/year and Zone II is [Formula: see text]6.84[Formula: see text]m/year. Likewise, based on Linear Regression Rate (LRR), the mean shoreline change rate of Zone I is 5.46[Formula: see text]m/year and Zone II is [Formula: see text]4.71[Formula: see text]m/year, respectively. Apart from that, the Net Shoreline Movement (NSM) recorded in Zone I is 109.42[Formula: see text]m as well as Zone II is [Formula: see text]213.25[Formula: see text]m, which also revealed how much the shoreline has changed during the last 32 years. This study also used the Kalman filter model to forecast the shoreline positions for 20 years. The most destructive signal is that more than 70% of the coastline is vulnerable due to erosion, whereas 6% is highly vulnerable. By contrast, the results of LULC changes demonstrated the increasing trend of water bodies, built up, and agricultural land while vegetation along with bare land is reduced continuously. The overall accuracy is recorded above 88%, and the kappa co-efficient is found above 0.87 for all three years. The outcome of this study will provide fruitful insight into coastal land use management and adaptation measures against the ongoing along with future threats of shoreline changes to coastal ecosystems and livelihoods.

Monitoring and predicting spatio-temporal dynamics of river bankline movements: a case study for land use risk management in the lower Ganga River, India.

Changing the river course in the alluvial plain region is a common phenomenon that may have disastrous consequences. The risk of river bank erosion has increased dramatically during the last few decades. As a result, assessing the river bankline alteration is necessary. The study aims to determine the changes in the bankline in the lower Ganga River. This research presents a novel approach by using the digital shoreline analysis system (DSAS) in conjunction with geospatial data to monitor and predict long-term changes in river banks from 1965 to 2017, providing a comprehensive temporal analysis that is unprecedented in this study area. The study analyzes the bankline change along the river Ganga using DSAS using during the elapsed period. An erosion and accretion zonation was conducted based on the rate of bankline change of the river Ganga in the study area. The rate of bankline shifting was quantified using the endpoint rate (EPR) and linear regression rate (LRR) statistics computed using the DSAS model. The east bank of the Ganga in the study area experienced an average erosion of - 41.17m/year according to the LRR model. Whereas, the west bank eroded an average of - 2.32m/year between 1965 and 2017. 90.54% of the transect lines recorded erosion at the east bank and 53.69% of the transect lines at the west bank recorded erosion computed with LRR. For the assessment of the impact of river bankline change on the LULC of the study area, the future river banklines for 2027 and 2037 were forecasted. The result shows that by 2027 and 2037 about 133.24 and 147 km2 of agricultural land and 7.19 and 11.47 km2 of the built-up area may be affected by river bank erosion respectively. By extending the applications of DSAS and geospatial analytics to encompass predictive and impact assessment capabilities, this study significantly enriches the literature on the management of riverbank erosion and associated land use risks. This research provides important insights that improve river management and planning and enable the formulation of robust strategies to mitigate erosion risks on river banks.

Rationale and Design for the BLOCK-SAH Study (Pterygopalatine Fossa Block as an Opioid-Sparing Treatment for Acute Headache in Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage): A Phase II, Multicenter, Randomized, Double-Blinded, Placebo-Controlled Clinical Trial with a Sequential Parallel Comparison Design.

Acute post-subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) headaches are common and severe. Management strategies for post-SAH headaches are limited, with heavy reliance on opioids, and pain control is overall poor. Pterygopalatine fossa (PPF) nerve blocks have shown promising results in treatment of acute headache, including our preliminary and published experience with PPF-blocks for refractory post-SAH headache during hospitalization. The BLOCK-SAH trial was designed to assess the efficacy and safety of bilateral PPF-blocks in awake patients with severe headaches from aneurysmal SAH who require opioids for pain control and are able to verbalize pain scores. BLOCK-SAH is a phase II, multicenter, randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled clinical trial using the sequential parallel comparison design (SPCD), followed by an open-label phase. Across 12 sites in the United States, 195 eligible study participants will be randomized into three groups to receive bilateral active or placebo PPF-injections for 2 consecutive days with periprocedural monitoring of intracranial arterial mean flow velocities with transcranial Doppler, according to SPCD (group 1: active block followed by placebo; group 2: placebo followed by active block; group 3: placebo followed by placebo). PPF-injections will be delivered under ultrasound guidance and will comprise 5-mL injectates of 20mg of ropivacaine plus 4mg of dexamethasone (active PPF-block) or saline solution (placebo PPF-injection). The trial has a primary efficacy end point (oral morphine equivalent/day use within 24h after each PPF-injection), a primary safety end point (incidence of radiographic vasospasm at 48h from first PPF-injection), and a primary tolerability end point (rate of acceptance of second PPF-injection following the first PPF-injection). BLOCK-SAH will inform the design of a phase III trial to establish the efficacy of PPF-block, accounting for different headache phenotypes.

Bicuspid Aortic Valve dilemma: TAVI or SAVR? Insights from the NOTION-2 trial.

The Nordic Aortic Valve Intervention-2 (NOTION-2) trial is the first randomized controlled trial to compare transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) with surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) in low-risk patients, specifically focusing on relatively younger patients and those with bicuspid valves. It randomized 370 patients (mean age 71years) to assess outcomes at 1year. Results indicated a higher composite primary endpoint rate for TAVI (10.2%) compared to SAVR (7.1%) in the overall cohort, with even more pronounced differences in patients with bicuspid valves (14.3% for TAVI vs. 3.9% for SAVR). The risk of death or disabling stroke at 1year was also three times higher with TAVI.

Prediction of Dynamics of Riverbank Erosion: A Tale of the Riverine Town Chandpur Sadar

River channel migration often occurs inside the floodplain areas of the river. The structural changes occurring in rivers within floodplain zones serve as a significant ecological signal of their tremendous impact on both ecological and human survival. The aim of the research is to assess the spatial and temporal fluctuations of the Meghna River's bankline from 1990 to 2020 (for 30 years), and to predict the future bankline position. The Landsat imageries from USGS were used for this study. The bankline was extracted from satellite imageries (Landsat) using Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) indices. The variations in bankline dynamics were assessed through the application of Net Shoreline Movement (NSM) and End Point Rate (EPR) analyses using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS). Predictive modeling was conducted utilizing the Modified EPR Model, with validation performed via the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) technique. Adjustment of errors was achieved by employing error coefficients tailored to each individual transect. Over the past three decades, the cumulative river erosion in Chandpur Sadar amounted to 18.03 square kilometers, with the highest Net Shoreline Movement (NSM) recorded at −1979.62 m during the study period. The forecasted maximum Net Shoreline Movement (NSM) is anticipated to be −495.79 m, signifying that the transect is associated with erosion, resulting in landward movement. Conversely, the minimum NSM is projected to be −1.01 m. The most significant movement is expected to occur in Puran Bazar, while the least movement is foreseen in Bakharpur. On average, the NSM across all transects is predicted to be −76.25 m. This study presents a cost-effective approach for evaluating the changes in river erosion over time. This technique may be valuable for policymakers in developing effective plans to reduce the negative impacts of erosion-related risks.

Shoreline morphological change prognostic model based on spatiotemporal framework imagery data on the northern coast of Java, Indonesia

This study focuses on identifying the degree of shoreline changes on the north coast of Java Island (Indonesia), particularly the Batang Regency segment, using multiple data sources: Landsat 9 and 8, Landsat 5 TM, and PlanetScope spanning from 2000 to 2023. The degree of change was obtained by statistically calculating net shoreline movement (NSM), linear regression rate (LRR), and end-point rate (EPR) using the digital shoreline analysis system (DSAS) software. The three rate-of-change statistics were used to calculate the multidecadal shoreline change prediction or projection for the next 10 and 20 years using a Kalman filter-based model with a simple data assimilation technique. Based on these results, NSM indicated that the shoreline experienced a total accretion and erosion of 361.04 and 111.58 m, respectively, from 2000 to 2023. Over these years, the highest accretion rate reached 16.44 m/year (according to LRR) or 15.83 m/year (EPR), while the maximum erosion rate was up to 11.34 m/year (LRR) or 9.43 m/year (EPR). The use of two data sources with different spatial resolutions produces varying statistical values, which depend on the degree of detail and complexity of the data derived from the source imagery. The coastline prognosis model produced with the Kalman filter shows that the entire coastline in Batang Regency will most likely experience an average accretion and erosion of 18.03 and 21.42 m, respectively, in 10 years, while that in the next 20 years will be 26.38 and 33.3 m, respectively.

GIS-BASED ESTIMATION OF SHORELINE CHANGE AT THE OLIE PIER HARBOR HERITAGE SITE, MANGGAR, EAST BELITUNG, INDONESIA

The coastal area is a dynamic region influenced by continuous interactions between land and the sea. Changes in coastal compositions are closely related to shoreline instability. This study analyzes coastline changes at the Olie Pier Heritage Site, Manggar, East Belitung, Indonesia, using statistical-based techniques EPR (End Point Rate) and NSM (Net Shoreline Movement) 2015 to 2023. The DSAS (Digital Shoreline Analysis System) was employed to calculate the shoreline alterations in every transect with a distance of about 100 m. The study area is generally predominated by a moderate abrasion. The EPR and NSM values indicate a potential for future shoreline changes, considering the present status and future estimations of oceanographic parameters (currents, wind, waves, tides). The highest erosion is identified in the Lalang Village with a shoreline retreat (NSM) of -65.38 m and a retreat rate (EPR) of 8.78 m/year. On the other hand, the highest accretion is observed in the Baru Village with a NSM of -56.68 m and EPR of 7.61 m/year. The implications of these shoreline changes on the heritage site and the coastal environment contribute to the management of coastal areas amidst global environmental challenges. This study provides valuable insights into conservation and sustainable development efforts in the coastal region of East Belitung.

IDENTIFICATION OF SHORELINE CHANGES USING DIGITAL SHORELINE ANALYSIS SYSTEM (DSAS): A CASE STUDY OF KARACHI COAST, SINDH, PAKISTAN

Shorelines are a very important feature of the coast. It is continuously changing due to natural activities like waves, and currents, and anthropogenic activities like construction. These changes cause morphological changes to the coast due to erosion and accretion. In case of erosion, coasts are at risk. For this purpose, Shoreline Changes were calculated by using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) for the last two decades at the Karachi coast. Shoreline changes showed both erosion (at bin Qasim town) and accretion (at Korangi town) but erosion dominated the entire coastline, especially in 2015. Shoreline Change Envelope (SCE), Net Shoreline Movement (NSM), End Point Rate (EPR), and Linear Regression Rate (LRR) are 427.76 m, -46.02 m, -3.22 m/yr. and -2.16 m/yr. respectively in the last two decades.

Geospatial technology based shoreline change analysis (1992–2022) and predictive forecast modeling for 2032 and 2042, utilizing DSAS, along the eastern coast of India

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of shoreline dynamics in the Thanjavur district, focusing on erosion and accretion trends from 1992 to 2022. The coastal region was partitioned based on Taluk boundaries to discern distinct patterns in erosion and accretion. The Peravurani region displayed stability, while the Mettupalayam Coast exhibited modest accretion, influenced by sediment deposition from the Tedakkiar River. Mettupalayam had the highest net shoreline movement (NSM), contrasting with the Mandiripattinam coast's prevalent erosion trend. Areas such as Ammani Chattram and Setubava Chattram coast remained relatively stable, while Ganeshapuram, Sendalapattinam, and Sembalpattinam coasts experienced low accretion linked to the Ambuliar River. The study found that the maximum erosion in the study area is 4.1 m/yr (end point rate (EPR)) and 4.21 m/yr (linear regression rate (LRR)) at the Maravakkadu coastal region, and the maximum accretion is 3.75 m/yr (EPR) and LRR of 4.12 m/yr at the Mettupalayam coast. Employing the Kalman filter, future shoreline projections for 2032 and 2042 revealed heightened erosion and accretion trends, identifying vulnerable areas and distinct accretion patterns. It has been predicted that the eastern part of the coastal stretch erodes towards the land, and the western part is accreting. The dynamic interaction of erosion and accretion in Sendalapattinam underscored historical influences on future projections. However, ongoing erosion on the Maravakkadu coast may entail potential economic consequences. The findings emphasize the need for informed coastal management strategies, integrating historical data and future predictions. This will help maintain the coastal ecosystem and community resilience in the changing shoreline dynamics.