EMU Membership Research Articles

THE SCOPE FOR FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET INTERVENTIONS

The discussion on exchange rate policy is dominated by the so-called "impossible trinity". In this paper, a strategy of managed floating is developed that allows one to transform the "impossible trinity" into a "possible trinity". If a central bank targets an exchange rate path which is determined by uncovered interest parity (UIP), it can at the same time set its policy rate autonomously. As a UIP path removes the incentives for carry-trade, it is also compatible with capital mobility. The approach can be used unilaterally to prevent carry trade as a central bank can always prevent an appreciation of its currency. But it can also be applied bilaterally or multilaterally. Successful examples are the European Monetary System and the exchange rate policy of Slovenia before its EMU membership.

Ancorare, fluttuare o abbandonare la nave:i regimi valutari dei paesi candidati all’Unione Europea (Anchor, Float or Abandon Ship: Exchange Rate Regimes for the Accession Countries)

The paper considers alternative exchange rate regimes for the East European accession candidates, both prior to EU accession and following EU accession but prior to EMU membership. We conclude that, from an economic point of view, EMU membership should be as early as possible. There is, however, a risk that prevailing interpretations of the inflation and exchange rate criteria for EMU membership could lead to unnecessary delays in EMU membership for the accession countries. The exchange rate criterion for EMU membership requires that the candidate "has respected the normal fluctuation margins provided for by the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System without severe tensions for at least the last two years before the examination." Both this text and the precedents of Finland, Italy and Greece, support the view that the exchange rate criterion can be satisfied without two years of formal ERM II membership. Insistence on at least two years of formal ERM II membership for the accession countries would result in an unnecessary, costly and potentially risky stay in EMU purgatory. JEL Codes: F33, P33, F15 Keywords: EMU, EU, Exchange Rates

The Spanish Economic Crisis: Key Factors and Growth Challenges in the Euro Area

The economic crisis affecting the industrialized countries in recent years has been singular given its intensity, complexity and the difficulties in overcoming it. The aim of this paper is to analyze the determinants behind the crisis that have made it deeper and longer in Spain than in previous instances, and which have meant that there are significant obstacles to emerging from recession. Spanish EMU membership is a crucial aspect for consideration, as it contributes both to explaining the build-up of imbalances in the expansion and to conditioning the nature of the adjustment in the crisis, given that the range of economic policy instruments is significantly narrower in EMU. The macroeconomic and financial imbalances accumulated in the high-growth phase (the real estate boom, excess debt and the loss in competitiveness), which are all closely interlinked, were factors of vulnerability. But even apparently sounder fundamentals on other fronts, such as the budgetary and labor market situation, saw their weaknesses exposed in the crisis. The experience over the past four years allows some lessons to be drawn on the external sector, the real estate market, fiscal policy and the labor market. These lessons point in particular to the need to avoid complacency in economic policy management in boom periods and to the urgency of adapting the structure of goods and factor markets and the behavior of economic agents in Spain to the requirements imposed by membership of a monetary union.

Italy’s fiscal crisis

Italy is presently one of the most vulnerable economies in the eurozone. Over the past twenty years it has failed to adapt to increasing global competition and its public finances have deteriorated dramatically. Even with huge fi scal support from the other members of the eurozone, Italy’s perspectives look rather bleak. How did this situation come about? Did Italy’s EMU membership make things worse?

Public Investment under Fiscal Constraints*

AbstractThe new member states (NMS) of the European Union must comply with the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) and the investment goals implied by the Lisbon Agenda. However, the SGP rules may result in underinvestment or distortions in the allocation of public expenditure. This paper provides new evidence on the effects of debt sustainability and the SGP fiscal constraints on government expenditure on fixed capital, education and health in OECD countries by estimating government expenditure reaction functions to public debt and cyclical conditions. We find that, at high levels of debt, government capital expenditure and education expenditure are significantly reduced as the debt ratio increases in all OECD countries independently of EMU (or EU) membership. By contrast, neither capital expenditure nor education expenditure is affected by the debt ratio in low‐debt countries. These findings are robust to the inclusion of the government deficit in the estimated reaction functions. Hence, it appears that EU countries have been constrained in their investment decisions more by the need to ensure debt sustainability than by the rules of the SGP. In low‐debt NMS countries, public investment even increases with the debt ratio, a finding that is reassuring for their growth prospects. However, a less optimistic picture emerges when we focus on expenditures on public health and education, as it appears that NMS governments cut such expenditures – even at low levels of debt – as the deficit increases. Problems in controlling total expenditure together with the preventive arm of the SGP may have penalised investment in human capital in the NMS while leaving fixed capital investment unaffected.

Business Cycle Comovement and Labor Market Institutions: An Empirical Investigation

This paper examines the empirical link between labor market institutions and international business cycle synchronization. Using a data panel of 20 OECD countries over the 1964–2003 period, we evaluate how cross-country labor market heterogeneity affects business cycle comovement. Our estimation strategy controls for a large set of possible factors influencing cross-country GDP correlation, which allows a comparison of our results with those found in previous studies. We find that bilateral trade, trade similarity, monetary and fiscal convergence, as well as EMU membership lead to more synchronized cycles. Our results show that labor market regulations affect the extent of business cycle synchronization. Disparities in employment protection laws and direct taxation tend to lower international comovement while divergence in union density, unemployment benefits, and indirect taxation enhance cross-country correlations. The level of labor market regulations also matters. Heavier employment taxes are found to raise GDP comovement.

What causes exchange rate volatility? Evidence from selected EMU members and candidates for EMU membership countries

We allow for monetary, real, and financial variables to assess the relevant importance of each of the variables to exchange rate volatility in the case of selected EMU members and candidate countries. Ex-ante analysis shows that volatility in the Polish zloty/euro and the Hungarian forint/euro forex markets can be influenced by the monetary-side of the economy. On the other hand, ex-post analysis shows that forex markets in France, Italy and Spain had been influenced, during the pre-EMU era, by monetary and real shocks. However, the Irish pound exchange rate per ECU had been affected by only real shocks.

International Financial Competitiveness and Incentives to Foreign Direct Investment

Summary International financial integration has become an important factor for economic performance in the globalisation process. Access to international capital markets is crucial for a country’s ability to meet its financial needs and to keep up with the challenges of a changing global landscape. In this paper, “financial competitiveness” is interpreted as the attractiveness of a country as perceived by foreign investors, which is reflected in refinancing costs in international capital markets. The study concentrates on foreign direct investment (FDI), which is an essential feature of the globalisation process and has immediate implications for the real economy. An index of international financial competitiveness is calculated which is given by the ratio of the market value to the book value of inward FDI stocks. For a panel of five advanced economies from 1980 to 2006 it is shown that price competitiveness, stable inflation rates and registered patents have a positive impact on the index. Institutional factors like EMU membership or Anglo-American legislation also play a role. Financial competitiveness in turn encourages FDI inflows whereas it benefits fixed investment relative to M&A. There is also some evidence that an innovative environment accelerates investment decisions by promoting competition among investors.

Monetary and Financial Integration in the EMU: Push or Pull?

AbstractThis paper examines the channels through which monetary union increased financial integration, using panel data on bilateral international commercial bank claims from 1998–2006. I decompose the increase in claims into three channels: a “borrower effect,” as a country's EMU membership may leave its borrowers more creditworthy in the eyes of foreign lenders; a “creditor effect,” as membership in a monetary union may increase the attractiveness of a nation's commercial banks as intermediaries, perhaps through increased scale economies or through an improved regulatory environment after the advent of monetary union; and a “pairwise effect,” as joint membership in a monetary union increases the quality of intermediation between borrowers and creditors when both are in the union. Isolating these three channels through a series of difference‐in‐differences specifications, I find that the pairwise effect is the primary source of increased financial integration. This result is robust to a number of sensitivity exercises.

Future EMU Membership and Wage Flexibility in Selected EU Candidate Countries

This paper attempts to evaluate wage rigidity related to risks of increased size and volatility of unemployment after the candidate countries enter the EMU. Such evaluation is done through the study of past labour market adjustment mechanisms and, in particular, the role played by the exchange rate movements and independent monetary policy. The paper examines some institutional and structural characteristics of candidate countries labour markets that could influence the wage elasticity. The analysis indicates that generally nominal wages are not flexible in candidate countries. Inflationary surprises and nominal exchange rate movements have an effect on the adjustment, especially during the Russian crisis. On the other hand fast productivity growth creates the environment in which unit labour can adjust to unfavourable labour market outcomes through moderation of real wage dynamics despite nominal stickiness. The paper indicates possible fields of further in-depth research in this area.

Balassa-Samuelson and Wage, Price and Unemployment Dynamics in the Spanish Transition to EMU Membership

AbstractThis paper provides an empirical investigation of the wage, price and unemployment dynamics that have taken place in Spain during the last two decades. The aim of this paper is to shed light on the impact of the European economic integration on Spanish labour market and the convergence to a European level of prosperity. We found that the Balassa-Samuelson effect, product market competition, and capital liberalization have been the main driving forces in this period. The adjustment dynamics show that Spanish inflation has adjusted in the long run to the European purchasing power parity level (as measured by the German price level) corrected for the Balassa-Samuelson effect. In the medium run this long-run convergence was achieved by two types of Phillips curve mechanisms; one where the inflation/unemployment trade-off was triggered off for different levels of the interest rate and real wage costs, another one where the trade-off was a function of the real exchange rate and the interest rate. Excess wages and/or increasing cost levels in the tradable sector led to higher unemployment rather than higher prices. Thus, much of the burden of adjustment was carried by unemployment in this period.

EMU enlargement, stabilization costs and insurance mechanisms

This paper considers the determinants of the macroeconomic costs of joining EMU for the new EU Member Sates, and compares them with those of the EMU members. Specifically, we investigate the business cycle correlation between the candidate's economy and that of the euro area as a whole, and the ability of insurance mechanisms and fiscal policies to smooth income fluctuations. The results suggest that EMU membership would not be costly for some countries (Cyprus, Hungary and Malta) but for other countries it could have relevant costs, at least in the short-run. For some of these countries, business cycles are not yet well synchronized with the euro area's business cycle, and risk-sharing mechanisms do not provide enough insurance against shocks.

International Financial Competitiveness and Incentives to Foreign Direct Investment

In this paper an index of financial competitiveness is calculated that corresponds to the market-to-book ratio of inward FDI stocks. For a panel of five advanced economies from 1980 to 2006 it is shown that price competitiveness, stable inflation rates and registered patents have a positive impact on the index. Institutional factors like EMU membership or Anglo-Saxon legislation also play a role. Financial competitiveness in turn encourages FDI inflows whereas it benefits fixed investment relative to M&A. There is also some evidence that an innovative environment accelerates investment decisions by promoting competition among investors.

Wage, Price and Unemployment Dynamics in the Spanish Transition to Emu Membership

This paper provides an empirical investigation of the wage, price and unemployment dynamics that have taken place in Spain during the last two decades. The aim of this paper is to shed light on the impact of the European economic integration process on Spanish labour market and the convergence to a European level of prosperity. We find some important lessons to be learnt from the Spanish experience that should be relevant for the new member states. Second, before fixing the real exchange rate it seems crucial that it is on its sustainable (competitive) purchasing power parity level. First, high competitiveness in the tradable sector seems crucial for the real and nominal convergence to be successful. The increase in consumption wages and consumer prices as a result of the Balassa-Samuelson effect should not be allowed to exceed the improvement in productivity. Second, before fixing the real exchange rate it seems crucial that it is on its sustainable (competitive) purchasing power parity level. Third, there does not seem to be a short-cut to a European level of standard of living: the path to sustainable prosperity seems to follow the path of productivity improvement. Forth, excessive real wage increases seem to lead to increasing unemployment, slowdown in productivity growth, higher interest rates, and loss of competitiveness. On the other hand, the access to the European market and the possibility of increased export demand is likely to speed up the convergence process as long as competitiveness is not eroded by excess wage increases.

Expensive Living: The Greek Experience under the Euro

Apart from its widely accepted direct advantages, the introduction of the euro has been widely perceived as causing a surge of inflation in most of the EU member states. Particularly in Greece there has been a decided shift in sentiment concerning EMU membership. Is the common perception among Greeks that the euro has been the primary cause of recent price hikes correct?

European Integration without Europeanization: Assets and Limits of Economism as a Pragmatic Frame of European Politics

This article draws a distinction between European integration of diplomacy and law and Europeanization of the public sphere and public culture in European Union member states. The Dutch case of EMU membership is used to show that the frame of economism may be conducive to the formal adaptation of member states to European policies but may equally lead to avoidance of domestic discussion and struggle. The increasing political nature of the EU necessitates debate in order to safeguard sustainable support for, and political identification with, the EU. Consequently, next to economic frames, ethical and constitutional ones will be necessary to stop increasing euroscepticism.

The euro-outsiders: Conclusions

This concluding article reviews the lessons drawn from the respective case studies of the special issue and returns to the central assumptions of the politics of asymmetry outlined in the Introduction by Miles. A comparative overview of the applicability of the five forms of asymmetry to the euro-outsiders leads to the conclusion that they provide a useful heuristic device to structure future analysis of the debate on EMU membership that will resurface periodically in these countries.

EMU Enlargement to Include CEE Countries: Risks of Sector-based and Geographical Asymmetric Shocks

Future membership of CEE countries in the euro zone highlights the risk of external asymmetric demand shocks due to too strong a dependence on one sector or one customer country. The purpose of this article is to build two indicators of exposure to shocks—sector-based and geographical—taking into account the symmetry of the export structures of a future member with the EMU and the trade openness of the future member. This enables us to draw up a classification of the CEE countries according to fulfillment of the Kenen criterion, revised and then transposed to the geographical variety of exports. The results, compared with those of the two countries in the EMU which are most sensitive to sector-based and geographical shocks (Finland and Ireland), testify to a generally pronounced exposure to shocks. An inventory of the pairs ‘country/branch’ and ‘country/destination’ liable to be at the origin of shocks with strong macroeconomic impact shows that Bulgaria and Slovakia, and to an even greater extent Estonia and Latvia, are exposed to major risks. In so far as Bulgaria and Latvia's real convergence process with the euro zone seems scarcely to have started, these two economies might consider postponing EMU membership or creating a cyclical stabilisation fund on joining. This recommendation contradicts the endogenous OCA theory, which is put forward when intra-industry trade intensifies. However, an increase in the share of intra-industry trade between a CEE country and the EMU does not necessarily entail less exposure to the shocks studied.

From a Currency Board to the Euro: Public Attitudes Toward Unilateral Euroization in Bulgaria

Bulgaria has operated a currency board since 1997. It is expected to join the EU in 2007 and the EMU thereafter. This paper uses survey data to analyze public attitudes toward adoption of the euro in advance of EMU membership. Bulgarians are equally split in support for and opposition to euroization. The reasons to support euroization include the eliminated risk of currency devaluation and the perception that the euro is already widely used in the economy. The opposition derives from people's attachment to the national currency and from concerns about the conversion costs involved in a switch to the euro.

How well prepared are the New Member States for the European Monetary Union?

From a purely economic perspective we find more arguments in favor of early EMU membership than against, since the New Member States have largely adjusted their economic policies, and economic indicators converge to the EMU average. The benefits of early accession (reduction of administrative costs, serious commitment, etc.) outweigh or even reduce most of the remaining risks. The only significant risk of early EMU enlargement for confidence in the Euro would emerge from the high level of bad debts in Poland and Malta, but this could be resolved within a year if serious action would be taken.