Probability Of Employment Research Articles

Beyond traditional academic degrees: The labor market returns to occupational credentials in the United States

Abstract Occupational credentials provide an additional—and, at times, alternative—path other than traditional academic degrees for individuals to increase productivity and demonstrate their abilities and qualifications to employers. In the United States, these credentials typically take the form of licenses and certifications. Although a critical part of the workforce landscape, the literature on the returns to credentials is inadequate, with prior research typically relying on Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regressions which do not sufficiently control for selection. Using questions that identify credential receipt from the 2015 and 2016 United States’ Current Population Surveys, we construct an instrumental variable of local peer influence using the within-labor market credential rate of individuals sharing the same sociodemographic characteristics, while controlling for the same group's average wages and a suite of demographic and geographic controls. We use this instrument in a marginal treatment effects estimator, which allows for estimation of the average treatment effect and determines the direction of selection, and we estimate the effects of credentials on labor market outcomes. We find large, meaningful returns in the form of increased probability of individual employment, an effect which is concentrated primarily among women. The effect of having a credential on log wages is higher for those in the sub-baccalaureate labor market, suggesting the potential role of occupational credentials as an alternative path to marketable human capital and a signal of skills in the absence of a bachelor's degree.

Gender, Parenthood, and Employment During COVID-19: An Immigrant-Native Born Comparison in Canada

The COVID-19 pandemic has upended how we live and work. In Canada, the gender gap in employment among parents with young children widened substantially during the pandemic. Previous studies, however, examine parents in Canada without distinguishing them by immigrant status, although immigrant versus Canadian-born parents may have distinct work-family experiences. In this study, we investigate how the intersection of parental and immigrant statuses influenced change in gender employment gaps during the pandemic. Drawing on Labor Force Survey (LFS) microdata from March 2019 to February 2021, we examine the probability of employment by gender, parental status, and immigrant status. When comparing the school closure period (March to August 2020) relative to the same months in 2019 (pre-pandemic), immigrant women, irrespective of parental status, witnessed larger declines in employment than their male counterparts and non-immigrants, and the gender gap widened the most among recent immigrants with school-aged children. When schools gradually reopened (September 2020 to February 2021), employment recovered faster for recent than established immigrant mothers. Overall, our findings show that among parents of young children, the growing gender gap in employment during the pandemic was concentrated among immigrants, with immigrant mothers disproportionately disadvantaged. This study illuminates how the pandemic exacerbated intersectional inequalities based on gender, parenthood, and immigrant status.

Do Refugees with Better Mental Health Better Integrate? Evidence from the Building a New Life in Australia Longitudinal Survey

Hardly any evidence currently exists on the causal effects of mental illness on refugee labor market outcomes. We offer the first study on this topic in the context of Australia, one of the host countries with the largest number of refugees per capita in the world. Analyzing the Building a New Life in Australia longitudinal survey, we exploit the variations in traumatic experiences of refugees interacted with time as an instrument for refugee mental health. We find that worse mental health, as measured by a one standard deviation increase in the Kessler mental health score, reduces the probability of employment by 14.1% and labor income by 26.8%. We also find some evidence of adverse impacts of refugees' mental illness on their children's mental health and education performance. These effects appear more pronounced for refugees that newly arrive or are without social networks, but they may be ameliorated with government support. Our findings suggest that policies that target refugees' mental health may offer a new channel to improve their labor market outcomes.

Economic Assimilation of Mexicans and Central Americans in the United States1

Abstract Using United States Census data between 1970 and 2017, we analyze the economic assimilation of subsequent arrival cohorts of Mexicans and Central Americans by comparing their earnings and employment probability to those of natives with similar age and education. We find that, on average, these immigrants started with an earnings gap of 40–45% and eliminated half of it within 20 years of arrival. Recent cohorts that arrived after 1995 performed better than earlier cohorts in that they had smaller initial earnings gaps and faster convergence. Additionally, the most recent cohorts entered the United States without an employment rate disadvantage, and they surpassed natives within 10 years. We also find that Mexicans and Central Americans working in the construction sector and those living in nonenclave and urban areas had faster earnings convergence than the others.

The Short-Term Effect of the COVID-19 Crisis on Employment Probabilities of Labour-Market Entrants in the Netherlands

The Short-Term Effect of the COVID-19 Crisis on Employment Probabilities of Labour-Market Entrants in the Netherlands

The Short-Term Effect of the COVID-19 Crisis on Employment Probabilities of Labour-Market Entrants in the Netherlands

The Short-Term Effect of the COVID-19 Crisis on Employment Probabilities of Labour-Market Entrants in the Netherlands

An Analysis of Labour Use Pattern in Thirappane Village Tank Cascade System in Sri Lanka: Determinants and Potential Effects of Off-farm Employment

Participation in off-farm employment is a strategy adopted by farmers in many developing countries to increase and stabilize their incomes. However, empirical evidence on its effects on management of natural resources is context specific. This study examines the pattern on labor use with special emphasis on determinants and potential effects of participation in off-farm employment by the villagers reside in Thirappane tank cascade system in Sri Lanka. Data gathered from a primary survey conducted among 134 households were used for analysis. The results of probit models revealed that the farmers who possess agricultural assets have a higher probability of joining employment in other-farms and those who are educated and own large farms participate in non-farm sector employment. Community management of the village tank cascade systems will be challenging owing to the increased interest in off-farm activities by the able.

Effect of Demand for Labor On Investment in Education

The purpose of this paper is to examine how demand for labor affects the job seeker's decision on the level of investment in education. In the current paradigm of economic growth in which innovations and technological developments generally weaken the strength demand for labor and increases the uncertainty related to employment, this paper provides a theoretical framework that can be used as a basic framework in understanding the decision of investment in education in varying conditions of demand for labor. The following are the findings of this paper. First, the level of investment in education can generally be regarded to be higher as the demand for labor exacerbates but for the job seekers with a certain characteristic. Second, the Arrow-Pratt absolute risk-aversion measure is the characteristic of the job seeker that determines in what direction the job seeker changes in the level of investment in education, For an arbitrary level of demand for labor there exists a certain threshold which determines the minimum degree of risk-aversion required for the job seeker’s Arrow-Pratt should go over to increase the level of education as demand for labor weakens. Third, the job seekers lower the level of education even though the demand condition in labor markets weakens if the compensation function does not depend on the level of education. This is surprising because it turns out that one of the reasons why job seekers invest in education is that they want to be recognized in their compensation for their level of education even when more education still raises the probability of employment.

A new perspective on women’s care burden and employment in Turkey

AbstractWomen’s intra-household care burden is one of the main reasons behind women’s low employment rates in Turkey. Many empirical studies have tested this relationship by focusing on the existence of dependent household members, if any. They have largely overlooked the use of care services and the time spent on caring for dependent household members to evaluate women’s care burden.The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between women’s care burden and employment prospects and status in Turkey from the perspective of access to care services and the time dimension of the care burden. This relationship is analyzed through the logit model by using latest available data from the 2014–2015 Time Use Survey. The article shows that the time spent by women caring for dependent household members, and access to care services, are the most important factors influencing women’s employment probability in Turkey. Benefiting from informal childcare services increases the employment probability of women approximately twenty-seven times, while benefiting from formal childcare services increases two times and informal adult-care services 2.6 times. Ensuring the accessibility of institutional care services improves women’s employment status by enabling women’s transition from part-time to full-time jobs, and from unskilled to professional jobs.

Work and diabetes

Work and diabetes

Care and careers: Gender (in)equality in unpaid care, housework and employment

This article examines whether reducing care and housework duties and redistributing them within different-sex couples could further enhance gender equality on the labor market in terms of labor market participation for different employment types and actual working hours. Women around the world perform the majority of unpaid care and housework, with a large and persistent gap to men. Most research explains the unequal gender division of domestic chores, but less frequently their consequences for employment outcomes and career outlooks. Based on the German Socio-Economic Panel (2001–2017 N = 40,419 for employment probabilities / N = 30,795 for working hours) matched with regional data on external child- and elderly care, the authors use an instrumental variables approach and eliminate time-constant individual effects in first-differenced regressions to address endogeneity issues and to disentangle the reciprocal relationship. Results show that both the overall amount as well as the unequal division of housework and care in couple households have detrimental effects on women’s labor market participation and actual working hours. Reducing the overall burden from housework and care duties and achieving a more symmetric within-couple distribution improves female integration into the labor market.

The Pathways to College

We estimate the returns to college by school type using data from the Italian Participation Labor and Unemployment Survey. We find that returns are lower for vocational than for academic high school graduates in terms of employment probability (−4%), hourly wages (−3.1%), and the probability of finding the first job less than 1 year after graduation (−9.2%). The wage penalty associated with high school vocational education is lower when we consider college majors such as engineering and economics and business, for which the complementarity with the vocational skills developed in high school is presumably higher.

Pretrial justice reform and black–white difference in employment

ABSTRACT While criminal justice reforms aimed at reducing the size of pretrial detainee population are being implemented across the U.S., little is known about their impact on the labour market. Using difference-in-differences approach, we find that the 2017 New Jersey Criminal Justice Reform increased the employment probability among blacks in their prime working age (i.e. 25–54) by 4.2 to 6.8 percentage points; its effect among whites is negligible. Labour force participation, full-time job status, and working hours among blacks also increased. Our findings suggest that individuals not detained pretrial are absorbed by the formal labour market and that this contributes to an overall increase in employment.

How do Gender Norms and Childcare Costs Affect Maternal Employment Across US States?

In this article, we investigate how state-to-state differences in U.S. childcare costs and gender norms are associated with maternal employment. Although an abundance of research has examined factors that influence mothers’ employment, few studies explore the interrelationship between maternal employment and culture, policy, and individual resources across U.S. states. Using a representative sample of women in the 2017 American Community Survey along with state-level measures of childcare costs and gender norms, we examine the relationship between these state conditions and mothers’ probability of employment. We pay careful attention to differences in mothers’ level of education. Our results suggest that expensive childcare is associated with lower maternal employment, particularly for those with less education. For the college educated, expensive childcare is negatively associated with maternal employment in states with traditional gender norms that uphold mothers as primary caregivers. Among mothers with lower levels of education, gender norms have a limited association with employment. These findings suggest that highly educated mothers mobilize resources to remain in the labor force when paid work is supported by local gender norms. For less-educated mothers, expensive childcare predicts lower employment regardless of gender norms, indicating that structural constraints outweigh normative expectations among those with fewer resources.

Do more educated people work for the government?

ABSTRACT We investigate the effect of education on public job choice using quarter of birth as an instrumental variable. We find that an additional year of education increases the probability of public sector employment by 1.87 percentage points. However, this positive effect is driven by females, whites, and those with high school degrees or less. For those with college or higher degrees, we observe a decrease in public employment with more education. Our results imply that highly-educated individuals go into high-risk, high-return occupations.

The employment situation of people living with HIV: a closer look at the effects of the 2008 economic crisis.

This study aims to assess the determinants of employment probabilities among people living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) during a 15-year period (2001-2016) in Spain, focusing on the possible effects of occurrences such as the 2008 economic crisis. The probability of people living with HIV having a job was evaluated by applying several multivariate probit regression models. Differences between the employment status of people living with HIV and that of the general population were evaluated by applying genetic matching regression models. With respect to the former evaluation, for people living with HIV, the period before the crisis (2001-2007) was associated with a probability of being employed that was 2.43 percentage points (p.p.) higher than during the crisis, and the period after the crisis (2014-2016) with a probability that was 7.58 p.p. lower than during the crisis. Greater effects were also observed among males, the probability of being in employment before the economic crisis being higher (by 2.26 p.p.) and lower after the crisis (-3.41 p.p.) than among women, and among those infected through drug use (6.18 p.p. and -7.34 p.p. before and after the crisis, respectively), than among those infected through sex. When analysing the differences with respect to the general population, people living with HIV reported lower probabilities of being employed: by -18 p.p. before the crisis, by -15 p.p. during the crisis (years 2008-2013) and by -10 p.p. after the crisis, implying a convergence in the prospects of employment with the passage of the years. Those differences were greater for people of basic educational level (-23 to -16 p.p.), a weaker immune system (-34 p.p. to -21 p.p.) and those infected through the use of drugs (-31 p.p. to -26 p.p.). Although the results suggest that the economic crisis had a greater effect on the employment prospects of people living with HIV, and that effect is still felt by that group, our findings also point towards a convergence of their employment prospects with those of the general population, over the 15-year period assessed. An analysis of the employment situation of people living with HIV might have helped when designing job-seeking methods and policies on the working environment, especially through the 15-year period considered, when the economic crisis had a greater effect on the job market.

A note on bride kidnapping and labour supply behaviour of Kyrgyz women

Using data from the 2011 and 2016 Life in Kyrgyzstan surveys, we examine Kyrgyz women’s labour supply elasticities at the extensive margin. We use Heckman’s two-step approach to predict earnings for the non-participating women and then use these predictions to estimate the participation equation. We find that women’s labour supply decision is not influenced by their earnings. We also show that there exists a significant gap in employment propensities among ethnic Kyrgyz women in consensual or arranged marriages compared to women in kidnapped-based marriages. This finding suggests that the practice of bride abduction adversely affects women’s probability of employment and might have negative consequences on their economic well-being.

AN ASSESSMENT OF THE EMPLOYMENT AMONG COLLEGE STUDENTS IN TANZANIA

This study empirically assesses employment among college students in Tanzania. It examined the effect of age and gender on student employment, the factors that lead employed people to join undergraduate studies, and identified ways that colleges may use to help employed students to succeed in their studies in Tanzania. Data were collected using questionnaires, interviews and analyzed quantitatively through descriptive analysis and multiple logistic regression. Logistic regression results showed that the employment probability was steadily increasing between ages 18 to 33, but then after it decreases steadily with age at least after age 34, and the male students had an average chance of employment 2.15 times the chance of female students. Descriptive statistics results showed that the factor that leads employed people to join undergraduate studies were: the need for technical skills, knowledge, exposure, job security, social status, job market, job promotion, get new friends, internal motivation, and unemployment. Also, the results showed that the ways to improve education success among employed students were the introduction of evening courses, student interaction with instructors, offering students access to an academic advisor, career counseling, offering weekend courses, increase the students' assessment criteria’s, involve students in outreach activities, and offering the online courses.

Deconstructing Job Insecurity: Do its Qualitative and Quantitative Dimensions Add Up?

Despite substantial interest in job insecurity as a severe workplace stressor, the way in which its qualitative and quantitative dimensions co-occur is not fully understood. As a result, the variety of their combinations and potentially differential effects that they produce remain underexplored. The current study aimed to address this gap in two ways. First, we hypothesized that quantitative job insecurity would manifest in a cumulated form along with qualitative job insecurity but not vice versa. Second, we aimed to test whether different combinations of quantitative and qualitative job insecurity differentially reflect in employees’ occupational characteristics and health and well-being outcomes.Latent profile analyses were conducted on two different samples of employees (N = 1077 and N = 608). The findings from both samples supported a three-profile solution of qualitative and quantitative job insecurity resulting in the balanced low, balanced high, and qualitative job insecurity dominant profiles. As expected, the probability of temporary and part-time employment was the highest in the balanced high (i.e., cumulated) job insecurity profile. Moreover, both the balanced high and the qualitative job insecurity dominant profiles were linked to significantly lower mental health and well-being than the low job insecurity profile, suggesting that substantially detrimental effects may occur even if experiencing qualitative job insecurity only.

The return to master’s degree in the Russian labor market

Though master’s programmes are rapidly gaining attention from students, evidence concerning the labor market returns to master’s degree remains scarce. There is a widespread opinion that Russian employers can barely distinguish between graduates with bachelor’s and master’s degree making it unreasonable to pursue a graduate degree. This paper contradicts this opinion. Based on a unique administrative dataset about employment of Russian HEI graduates in 2020, this study reveals a significantly positive association between master’s degree acquisition and labour market outcomes one year after graduation. Master’s degree increases probability of employment by 3—8% in male sample and by 10—16% in female sample, respectively. Moreover, graduate degree is associated with a wage premium of 5—21% for females and 2—11% for males. Despite a short period of time passed after the Bologna reform, Russian labour market encourages having a graduate degree, though the size of the premium varies drastically between fields of study and types of university.