The metastability of amorphous formulations poses barriers to their safe and widespread commercialization. The propensity of amorphous solid dispersions (ASDs) to crystallize is directly linked to their molecular structure. Amorphous structures are inherently complex and thus difficult to fully characterize by experiments, which makes structural simulations an attractive route for investigating which structural characteristics correlate with ASD stability. In this study, we use empirical potential structure refinement (EPSR) to create molecular models of ketoprofen-poly(vinylpyrrolidone) (KTP/PVP) ASDs with 0-75 wt % drug loading. The EPSR technique uses X-ray total scattering measurements as constraints, yielding models that are consistent with the X-ray data. We perform several simulations to assess the sensitivity of the EPSR approach to input parameters such as intramolecular bond rotations, PVP molecule length, and PVP tacticity. Even at low drug loading (25 wt %), ∼40% of KTP molecules participate in KTP-KTP hydrogen bonding. The extent of KTP-PVP hydrogen bonding does not decrease significantly at higher drug loadings. However, the models' relative uncertainties are too large to conclude whether ASDs' lower stabilities at high drug loadings are due to changes in drug-excipient hydrogen bonding or a decrease in steric hindrance of KTP molecules. This study illustrates how EPSR, combined with total scattering measurements, can be a powerful tool for investigating structural characteristics in amorphous formulations and developing ASDs with improved stability.
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