For effective aircraft operation, Civil Aviation Bureau promotes route restructuring for utilizing Area Navigation (RNAV) operation by means of making an RNAV roadmap. RNAV is a method of navigation which permits aircraft operation on any desired flight path within the coverage of station-referenced navigation aids or within the limits of the capability of self-contained aids, or a combination of these. Estimating optimal route spacing between parallel arrival routes is required. It's necessary to estimate lateral overlap probability, which is one of the most important parameters of collision risk model, for estimating the risk of the given route spacing. For estimating the lateral overlap probability, a distribution of cross track deviations was estimated using the radar data of Kagoshima Airport, flight plan data and flight strips. The results obtained are as follows. (1) The standard deviation of the observed cross track deviations of 2,298 flights is 0.077 NM. (2) The ninety five percent containment interval of the deviations is [-0.13 NM, 0.17 NM]. (3) The best fitted model for the empirical cross track deviations is the mixed model of two Normal (Gaussian) distributions. The fitted parameters are α=0.117, σ_1=0.0673 NM and σ_2=0.129 NM.