Emission Paths Research Articles

Influencing Factors and Emission Reduction Paths of Industrial Carbon Emissions Under Target of “Carbon Peaking”: Evidence from China

Influencing Factors and Emission Reduction Paths of Industrial Carbon Emissions Under Target of “Carbon Peaking”: Evidence from China

Agricultural carbon emissions in China: measurement, spatiotemporal evolution, and influencing factors analysis

IntroductionThe agricultural sector is the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases, accounting for 23% of global anthropogenic carbon emissions. Analysis of the basic state of carbon emissions from China's agriculture is helpful to achieve carbon reduction targets.MethodsAgricultural carbon emissions were calculated using the emission factor method, based on data from the China Rural Statistical Yearbook and various provincial statistical yearbooks. To analyze spatial patterns, the standard deviation ellipse method and the center of gravity migration model were employed, uncovering the migration path of agricultural carbon emissions. Regional disparities and the driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions were further examined using the Theil index and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model.ResultsThe analysis indicated that the emissions center has gradually shifted towards the central and western regions, reflecting changes in agricultural production activity areas. Intraregional differences are the primary contributors to the imbalance in agricultural carbon emissions, with pronounced disparities in grain production and consumption balance regions. Key influencing factors include agricultural production efficiency, adjustments in agricultural industrial structure, economic structure and output, and urbanization levels. The economic output effect and urbanization effect are identified as the main drivers of increased carbon emissions, while declining production efficiency has hindered emission reduction efforts.ConclusionThe findings provide valuable insights for regional management and policymaking in China's agricultural sector, highlighting the need to enhance production efficiency and optimize agricultural structure to reduce emissions.

Electrical and optical characteristics of a nanosecond pulsed electrical discharge in air in contact with a water droplet for various electrical conductivities

Abstract Interactions between pulsed electrical discharges and liquid dielectric materials is a growing research field with interests in fundamental discharge physics as well as in applications. Herein, we present an experimental study on the dynamics of nanosecond discharges in air with the presence of a water droplet with various electrical conductivities (EC) and at different applied voltages (Va). The discharges are characterized optically, by employing time-resolved ICCD imaging and optical emission spectroscopy, as well as electrically, by acquiring the current-voltage waveforms for every discharge. The results show that three modes of discharges can be obtained: i) streamer discharge between the cathode and the droplet, ii) streamer discharge between the cathode and the droplet as well as between the anode and the droplet, and iii) spark discharge that connects the two electrodes and propagates over the droplet. We find that the probability to obtain one of the three discharge modes is strongly related to the droplet’s EC as well as to Va. Although the ignition of the streamer is relatively insensitive to EC, its transition to a spark can be finely controlled by the droplet’s EC. The time-resolved ICCD images show that the discharge initiates in the gap between the cathode and the droplet, followed by ignition between the anode/ground electrode and the droplet. Then, an extinction phase is observed before the ignition of a secondary streamer, and depending on the conditions, the discharge may transition to a spark, i.e. a channel with high emission intensity. We find that the duration of each stage of discharge propagation as well as the corresponding emission (path and intensity) are sensitive to droplet’s EC. Finally, emissions from streamers (primary and secondary) as well as from sparks are analyzed using optical spectroscopy. We find that the emission from the streamers is dominated by the second positive system of N2, and that the droplet’s EC does not significantly influence the emission spectra nor the estimated rotational temperature of N2.

Correction: The impact of green bond issuance on carbon emission intensity and path analysis

Correction: The impact of green bond issuance on carbon emission intensity and path analysis

Mitigating China’s process-related greenhouse gas emissions via supply chain management

As the world’s largest industrial producer, China’s deep decarbonization of industrial process-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is essential in fulfilling the goal of reaching net zero emissions. Previous studies have mainly focused on emission inventories and abatement technologies, however, final demand may also be the main driver of industrial process-related GHG emissions in China. Based on environmentally extended input-output analysis and structural path analysis, this study explores the detailed industrial process-related GHG emissions inventory and investigates the detailed supply chain paths of 17 products and 16 types of GHG emissions. The results show that industrial process-related GHG emissions reached 1887.1 Mt CO2-eq in 2018, of which more than three-fifths was induced by fixed capital formation. The entirety of the Construction sector amounted to 54.6% of the total embodied industrial process-related GHG emissions. After examining the embodied industrial process-related GHG emissions paths, critical economic sectors such as Construction, Nonmetallic Mineral, Chemical, and the paths of “Nonmetallic Mineral → Construction → Fixed capital formation and Nonmetallic Mineral → Nonmetallic Mineral → Construction → Fixed capital formation” were identified as the main contributor. In considering the enormous challenges of mitigating GHG emissions from process-related industries, it is essential to identify and optimize critical supply chains, which provides new insights into China's transition towards a low-carbon economy within its industrial processes.

Carbon emission scenario analysis of data centers in China under the carbon neutrality target

The low-carbon transformation of data centers is of great significance to achieve the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. This study compared and analyzed the overall situation of data centers in China. Based on China's CO2 emission and intensity targets in key years, the four variables of energy efficiency improvement rate, nonfossil energy consumption proportion, negative emission technology intensity, and waste energy utilization rate were introduced, and a net zero emission path model of data centers was established. Using scenario analysis to predict the total CO2 emissions and emission intensity from 2021 to 2060, three emission reduction path scenarios were obtained. Results showed that the energy consumption of data centers increased gradually, the carbon emissions first increased and then decreased, and the power usage effectiveness (PUE) of the data centers decreased gradually. The carbon peak time of the three scenarios is 2030, and the time for carbon neutrality is 2055, 2053, and 2051 in three scenarios. The data center industry should further improve the energy efficiency utilization rate, increase the proportion of nonfossil energy consumption, strengthen the technological innovation of carbon capture and storage, enhance the level of carbon sink, and optimize the utilization rate of waste energy.

Spatially Resolved Temperature Response Functions to CO2 Emissions

AbstractCarbon dioxide (CO2) emissions affect local temperature; quantifying that local response is important for learning about the earth system, the impacts of mitigation, and adaptation needs. We assume the climate system can be represented as a time‐dependent linear system, diagnosing Green's Functions for the spatial temperature response to CO2 emissions based on CMIP6 earth system models. This allows us to emulate the linear component of the temperature response to CO2. This approach is sufficient to capture the spatial temperature response of CMIP6 experiments within one standard deviation of the multimodel spread across most regions, though accuracy is lower in the Southern Ocean and the Arctic. Our approach reveals where nonlinear feedbacks are important in current CMIP6 models, and where the local system response is well represented by a time‐dependent linear differential operator. It incorporates emissions path dependency and may be useful for evaluating large ensembles of emission scenarios.

MAX-DOAS observations of ship emissions in the North Sea

Shipping emissions were measured in Dunkirk, France. Elevated aerosol extinction coefficients (AEC), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and sulphur dioxide (SO2) were observed up to 500 m from surface. Formaldehyde (HCHO) did not show an increase every time, which suggests that oxidation of emitted volatile organic compounds (VOCs) took longer than the transport to the observation path and dilution of direct emissions had occurred. Background NO2, HCHO, and SO2 levels were higher when the wind came over land or the surrounding industrial area, indicating that land-based sources contribute significantly; however, clear spikes in NO2 and SO2 were observed whenever ship plumes were sampled. Observations show that the ship emission contribution to pollution is significant, but land-based sources still dominate. The SO2/NO2 ratio was low throughout the campaign, although varying according to the ship type, confirming that the new fuel content regulations are being followed by most ships in this region.

Can today’s and tomorrow’s world uniformly gain from carbon taxation?

Climate change will impact current and future generations in different regions very differently. This paper develops the first large-scale, annually calibrated, multi-region, overlapping generations model of climate change and carbon policy. It features region-specific temperature and damage functions with the phased impact of emissions on global and regional temperature calibrated to the latest scientific evidence. Absent policy, climate change may, under high-damage scenarios, dramatically reduce GDP in most regions, with India, Brazil, and the South Asian Pacific suffering long-term catastrophic damages. Carbon taxation, coupled with region- and generation-specific transfers, can both correct the carbon externality and raise the welfare of all current and future agents across all regions by 4.3 percent. The impact on the use and duration of fossil fuels is dramatic as is the reduction in the path of global emissions. However, achieving completely uniform welfare gains leaves future generations in particular regions facing exceptionally high compensatory payments. Fortunately, a carbon tax-cum redistribution policy that limits this burden for any generation in any region to less than 10 percent, measured on a consumption-equivalent basis, can deliver a 4.0 percent or higher welfare gain for all peoplekind — present and future. However, carbon taxes set through time, at carbon’s marginal social cost, do far too little to mitigate climate change unless all major emitters, particularly China, adopt them and do so immediately.

How much financing China needs to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals?

China requires financial support to achieve its dual‑carbon goals, the carbon emission peak and neutrality. However, currently, there lack of systematic estimation of the amount and structure of finance needed to achieve these goals. This paper attempts to fill the research gap by constructing a simultaneous equations model that characterizes the five core channels that finance contributes to carbon emission. Cointegration estimation, suitable for long-term forecasting, was used to estimate the amount of finance required for carbon emission paths planned by the International Energy Agency (2021) for China to achieve dual‑carbon goals. Finally, the finance structure was estimated using the Bootstrap method. We found that first, estimations of the simultaneous equations model perform better than the existing single equation models. Second, finance influences carbon emissions through economic development, employment (industry) structure, foreign direct investment, energy structure, and energy technology. There are long-run equilibrium relations between these variables. Third, the financing required for the dual‑carbon goals will increase from 2021 and grow at a relatively stable rate higher than history. The earlier carbon neutrality, the more financing is needed. Financing expansion to achieve the emissions peak before 2030 is small, but achieving carbon neutrality before 2060 is challenging. Fourth, the finance structures ranked by their shares in the total amount are indirect financing, other financings, direct financing, and shadow banking. The future paths of these financings have different fluctuation patterns due to their varied embedded risks.

Compound-Nucleus and Doorway-State Decays of β-Delayed Neutron Emitters ^{51,52,53}K.

We investigated decays of ^{51,52,53}K at the ISOLDE Decay Station at CERN in order to understand the mechanism of the β-delayed neutron-emission (βn) process. The experiment quantified neutron and γ-ray emission paths for each precursor. We used this information to test the hypothesis, first formulated by Bohr in 1939, that neutrons in the βn process originate from the structureless "compound nucleus." The data are consistent with this postulate for most of the observed decay paths. The agreement, however, is surprising because the compound-nucleus stage should not be achieved in the studied β decay due to insufficient excitation energy and level densities in the neutron emitter. In the ^{53}K βn decay, we found a preferential population of the first excited state in ^{52}Ca that contradicted Bohr's hypothesis. The latter was interpreted as evidence for direct neutron emission sensitive to the structure of the neutron-unbound state. We propose that the observed nonstatistical neutron emission proceeds through the coupling with nearby doorway states that have large neutron-emission probabilities. The appearance of "compound-nucleus" decay is caused by the aggregated small contributions of multiple doorway states at higher excitation energy.

Research on Regional Carbon Emissions and Breakthrough Green Technology Innovation Paths——Based on the Perspective of New Quality Productivity

<p style="text-align:justify"><span style="font-size:10.5pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">The driving force of new quality productivity comes from innovation, and breakthrough green technology innovation is its important engine. Breakthrough green technology innovation is the core driver of new quality productivity, and it is an important support to promote and develop new quality productivity. Based on the panel random effect model, the model of regional carbon emission impact on breakthrough green technology innovation is tested, and the mediating effect model is used to explore the impact and path of carbon emission on breakthrough green technology innovation. Heterogeneity analysis shows that in the eastern, northeastern and western regions, carbon emissions significantly inhibit breakthrough green technology innovation. While in the central region, the effect is not significant. In addition, it was found that R&D capital investment partially mediated between carbon emissions and breakthrough green technology innovation, and the number of R&D staff investment mediated insignificantly between carbon emissions and breakthrough green</span></span></span> <span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">technology innovation. Finally, recommendations are made at the levels of policy, enterprises, collaboration among research subjects, and regional development.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

High-n Phase Suppression for Efficient and Stable Blue Perovskite Light-Emitting Diodes.

Quasi-2D perovskites light-emitting diodes (PeLEDs) have achieved significant progress due to their superior optical and electronic properties. However, the blue PeLEDs still exist inefficient energy transfer and electroluminescence performance caused by mixed multidimensional phase distribution. In this work, transition metal salt (zinc bromide, ZnBr2) is introduced to modulate phase distributions by suppressing the nucleation of high n phase perovskites, which effectively shortens the energy transfer path for blue emission. Moreover, ZnBr2 also facilitates energy level matching and reduces non-radiative recombination, thus improving electroluminescence (EL) efficiency. Benefiting from these combined improvements, an efficient blue PeLEDs is obtained with a maximum external quantum efficiency (EQE) of 16.2% peaking located at 486nm. This work provides a promising approach to tune phase distribution of quasi-2D perovskites and achieving highly efficient blue PeLEDs.

Carbon Emission Heterogeneity in Developed Countries: Insights for China’s Neutrality Strategy

This study investigates the heterogeneity and driving factors of carbon emission reduction in developed countries, providing insights for formulating carbon neutrality strategies and plans in China. Firstly, typical developed countries worldwide are categorized into four modes: high energy consumption–high emissions, high energy consumption–low emissions, low energy consumption–low emissions and low energy consumption–high emissions, based on the “per capita energy consumption–emission intensity” classification method. Secondly, the LMDI decomposition model is employed to calculate the carbon emission-reduction driving effects of each mode, thereby analyzing the evolution path of carbon emissions. Finally, carbon emission-reduction policy recommendations are proposed based on the current situation of provincial carbon emissions in China. The research findings are as follows: (1) Carbon emissions in developed countries follow the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) law, exhibiting an inverted U-shaped trajectory. In the per capita GDP range of USD 12,000–20,000, carbon emissions in most countries have reached or are close to their peak, with per capita carbon emissions in different modes decreasing and tending towards a level of 4000 kg/person. (2) There is heterogeneity in the EKC of carbon emissions in developed countries, which can be divided into technological, structural, comprehensive and clean types based on differences in emission-reduction factors. The trajectories of carbon emissions in most developed countries follow a clean path, while those in newly developed countries are constrained by environmental pressures and are expected to be between mixed and structural types before the emission peak, and tend towards a clean type after the peak. (3) Energy clean-up is the most direct and efficient method for carbon emission reduction, which can significantly and efficiently achieve carbon emission reduction. Industrial restructuring and technological progress play a significant role in suppressing carbon emissions. Policy recommendations are proposed as follows: first, reduce the proportion of fossil energy and increase energy cleanliness; second, promote industrial restructuring to reduce energy dependence; third, enhance production technology and improve energy-utilization efficiency; fourth, increase technological breakthroughs to support low-carbon transformation; fifth, correctly recognize the differences among provinces in China and formulate differentiated carbon emission-reduction policies.

Multidirectional Fate Path Model to Connect Phosphorus Emissions with Freshwater Eutrophication Potential.

Excessive anthropogenic phosphorus (P) emissions put constant pressure on aquatic ecosystems. This pressure can be quantified as the freshwater eutrophication potential (FEP) by linking P emissions, P fate in environmental compartments, and the potentially disappeared fraction of species due to increase of P concentrations in freshwater. However, previous fate modeling on global and regional scales is mainly based on the eight-direction algorithm without distinguishing pollution sources. The algorithm fails to characterize the fate paths of point-source emissions via subsurface pipelines and wastewater treatment infrastructure, and exhibits suboptimal performance in accounting for multidirectional paths caused by river bifurcations, especially in flat terrains. Here we aim to improve the fate modeling by incorporating various fate paths and addressing multidirectional scenarios. We also update the P estimates by complementing potential untreated point-source emissions (PSu). The improved method is examined in a rapidly urbanizing area in Taihu Lake Basin, China in 2017 at a spatial resolution of 100 m × 100 m. Results show that the contribution of PSu on FEP (62.6%) is greater than that on P emissions (58.5%). The FEP is more spatially widely distributed with the improved fate modeling, facilitating targeted regulatory strategies tailored to local conditions.

Delineating the embodied CO2 emissions in Canada's exports: Routes, drivers, and paths

AbstractThis study combined the World Input–Output Database and Asian Development Bank's Multiregional Input–Output database to investigate Canada's embodied CO2 emissions in exports (EEE) for the period of 2000–2018. We examined the key drivers and paths through structural decomposition analysis and structural path analysis. First, the results showed that embodied emissions in the intermediate exports were the major contributor to Canada's EEE, and emission paths involving more than three countries were on the rise, indicating that the expansion of the global industrial supply chains has complicated the paths of Canada's EEE. Second, the factors such as emission intensity of sectors, export structure, and export scale, had varying influences on Canada's EEE over time. For several sectors, the benefit from reduced emission intensity was largely offset by the additional emissions from the increased export scale. Hence, the design of emission regulations should consider the heterogeneity of industrial sectors in order to mitigate emissions for the diverse industries in Canada. Third, energy and resource industries (e.g., electricity, petroleum, wood, metals, and so on) played an essential role in Canada's exports. A significant amount of embodied emissions was transferred from these sectors to the downstream sectors along the supply chain, indicating that abatement measures should be adopted from the whole life cycle perspective of a product/service through an integrated governance of the supply chain. This article met the requirements for a Gold–Silver JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges.

Carbon emissions path of public buildings based on LEAP model in Changsha city (China)

China is currently the world's top carbon emitter due to the acceleration of urbanization, the rapid growth of energy consumption and the rise in carbon emissions, with the construction industry leading the three energy sectors in terms of emission reduction potential. Among the various sectors, the construction industry holds immense potential for emission reduction, with public buildings playing a crucial role. In China, the expansion of public building spaces is closely linked to the pace of urbanization and contributes to a rising share of total building area. Public buildings, characterized by high energy usage, offer a great opportunity for energy conservation and emission reduction. Changsha is experiencing rapid growth and change, and the city is becoming more industrialized and urbanized, which leads to a prominent contradiction between energy supply and demand. There is also great potential for energy conservation and emission reduction in public buildings. Additionally, Changsha is an important node city in the Yangtze River urban agglomeration and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. It is a typical area that has hot summer and cold winter, thus Changsha is selected as the research case to examine the carbon emission path of public buildings. The primary influencing factors of carbon emissions of public buildings in Changsha City are determined by using the LMDI factor decomposition method addition model. The scenario analysis method is adopted to set the two energy consumption forecast scenarios, which are the baseline scenario and the green scenario. Based on LEAP model and GREAT framework structure, the LEAP prediction model is constructed to predict the carbon emissions of public buildings in Changsha City from 2021 to 2035. The Baseline scenario indicates that while carbon emissions from public buildings in Changsha continue to rise, they are expected to decline starting in 2030. The peak carbon emission of 34.279 million tons of CO2 is predicted for 2032. In contrast, the Green scenario reveals a significantly slower growth rate in carbon emissions from public buildings, with the peak carbon emission projected to reach 27.054 million tons in 2030. This aligns with China's national goal. The findings of this study support the accuracy of the long-term prediction of the model, and offer recommendations for energy conservation and emission reduction in Changsha. This study also provides an example and certain guidance for other provinces and cities that have similar development models and climate conditions. Pertinent development strategies serve as a point of reference for other typical hot summer and cold winter regions.

The impact of green bond issuance on carbon emission intensity and path analysis.

Reducing carbon emission intensity is crucial for achieving sustainable development. Carbon emission intensity is expressively affected by the issuance of green bonds. Thus, it is imperative to assess the influence of green bond issuance on carbon emissions and examine their correlation. Such research holds great potential to expedite the overhaul and modernization of businesses and to construct a circular economy system. This paper uses the spatial Durbin model to draw empirical conclusions by using data from 26 provinces in China between 2016 and 2021. Firstly, under different spatial matrices, it has been analyzed that an increase of 1% in the issuance of green bonds leads to a reduction of 0.306% or 0.331% in carbon emission intensity. It shows that green bonds have the potential to substantially reduce carbon intensity. Additionally, the intensity of emissions in the current period is driven by the intensity of emissions in the previous period. Secondly, the analysis of mediated transmission suggests that green bonds can ultimately reduce carbon emission intensity by changing the energy consumption structure or improving the efficiency of green technology innovation. Thirdly, the analysis of heterogeneity shows that the inhibitory effect of green bond issuance on carbon emissions is stronger in less economically developed regions than in economically developed regions. There is a significant inhibitory effect of green bond issuance in neighboring provinces on local carbon emission intensity. This effect is present only in provinces in less economically developed regions and not in economically developed regions.

Tuning Electron–Phonon Coupling Interaction for the Efficient Wide Blue Emission of Pb2+‐Doped Cs2InCl5·H2O

AbstractLead‐free perovskites exhibit unique crystal structures and optical properties due to their low‐dimensional structure. However, the 0D structure of Cs2InCl5·H2O usually demonstrates poor optical properties at room temperature due to their extremely strong electron–phonon coupling interaction. In this study, a doping strategy is employed by introducing Pb2+ into Cs2InCl5·H2O, resulting in the achievement of an efficient broadband blue emission, with a photoluminescence quantum yield (PLQY) of 58%. The temperature‐dependent PL spectra reveal that the efficient emission is attributed to the weakening of the electron–phonon coupling strength in the lattice and the inhibition of the phonon‐assisted non‐radiative recombination process through Pb2+ doping. The validity of this deduction is further corroborated by the results of the Raman spectra. The results of the first‐principle calculation demonstrate that the broadband emission originates from multiple emission paths in In3+ and Pb2+ polyhedrons. In addition, Pb2+‐doped Cs2InCl5·H2O can realize the transformation from sky‐blue emission to deep‐blue emission by absorbing water in the air. Remarkably, this change is reversible during the heating–cooling cycles, demonstrating excellent optical stability with repeatable recyclability.

Transfer payments and carbon reduction in China: The effect of the national comprehensive demonstration city of energy saving and emission reduction fiscal policy

To address climate change and achieve high-quality economic development, China began implementing the Comprehensive Demonstration City of Energy Saving and Emission Reduction Fiscal Policy (ESERFP) in 2011. This policy relies on special transfer payments to increase the integration of various energy conservation and emission reduction fiscal policies, thereby accelerating institutional and mechanism innovation, actively promoting economic structure adjustment and development mode transformation, and achieving energy conservation and emission reduction goals in various regions. This study uses a multi-period difference-in-difference (DID) model to estimate the ESERFP's CO2 emission reduction effect and paths. The findings demonstrate the following: (1) The ESERFP has lessened the CO2 emission intensity of the demonstration city and effectively played a role in reducing CO2 emissions. (2) Mechanism analysis demonstrates that the ESERFP has significantly improved the green travel level of residents in pilot cities and can also reduce cities' total energy consumption. Therefore, the ESERFP can effectively suppress CO2 emissions by improving transportation systems and optimizing energy consumption structures. (3) Further analysis shows that the ESERFP can reduce the CO2 emission scale of the demonstration cities and effectively promote the increase of actual per capita gross domestic product in pilot cities, bringing economic dividends and thus achieving a “win-win” situation of environmental protection and economic growth. (4) Heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that the CO2 emission reduction effect is more significant in non-old industrial-based cities, non-resource-based cities, and urban agglomerations. This study not only evaluates the CO2 reduction effect of the demonstration city but also provides reference significance for the improvement of subsequent environmental regulations. In addition, clarifying the implementation effect of the ESERFP can help alleviate ecological and environmental problems in the process of urban economic development in China and achieve the sustainable development goal of green transformation.