How much financing China needs to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals?

Abstract

China requires financial support to achieve its dual‑carbon goals, the carbon emission peak and neutrality. However, currently, there lack of systematic estimation of the amount and structure of finance needed to achieve these goals. This paper attempts to fill the research gap by constructing a simultaneous equations model that characterizes the five core channels that finance contributes to carbon emission. Cointegration estimation, suitable for long-term forecasting, was used to estimate the amount of finance required for carbon emission paths planned by the International Energy Agency (2021) for China to achieve dual‑carbon goals. Finally, the finance structure was estimated using the Bootstrap method. We found that first, estimations of the simultaneous equations model perform better than the existing single equation models. Second, finance influences carbon emissions through economic development, employment (industry) structure, foreign direct investment, energy structure, and energy technology. There are long-run equilibrium relations between these variables. Third, the financing required for the dual‑carbon goals will increase from 2021 and grow at a relatively stable rate higher than history. The earlier carbon neutrality, the more financing is needed. Financing expansion to achieve the emissions peak before 2030 is small, but achieving carbon neutrality before 2060 is challenging. Fourth, the finance structures ranked by their shares in the total amount are indirect financing, other financings, direct financing, and shadow banking. The future paths of these financings have different fluctuation patterns due to their varied embedded risks.